Russia is Running Out of People

Summary

The script discusses Russia's demographic crisis, focusing on Chukotka's unlikely status as a beacon of hope with a rising number of large families amidst a national population decline. It highlights the country's shrinking cities, low birth rates, and high mortality rates, particularly due to alcohol consumption. The script also contrasts Russia's situation with other countries facing similar demographic challenges but for different reasons, emphasizing the unique economic and social implications for Russia's future.

Takeaways

• 🏙️ Chukotka, a remote region in Russia, is an unlikely candidate for a population resurgence, with its capital Anadyr being geographically distant and sparsely populated.
• 🛣️ The infrastructure in Chukotka is underdeveloped, with a road to connect it to Siberia expected to be completed in 21 years, and the airport being accessible only by helicopter for part of the year.
• 📈 Despite its small population increase, Chukotka stands out in Russia, where many cities have experienced a decline in population size, and the national birth rate is well below the world average.
• 📉 Russia's population has been in decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with more deaths than births for all but three years in the past 33 years.
• 🌍 The demographic challenges faced by Russia are not unique, as other countries like China, Korea, and Japan also experience falling birth rates and aging populations.
• 🔄 The difference between Russia and other countries lies in the causes of the demographic decline; in Russia, it's more a reaction to economic hardship and despair, rather than a choice due to increased opportunities for women.
• 💔 Russia's high death rate, particularly from heart-related issues, is suspected to be closely linked to alcohol consumption, which is deeply ingrained in the culture.
• 🍷 The type of alcohol consumed and the pattern of drinking in Russia, often involving vodka and binge drinking, contribute to the high mortality rate.
• 💔 Alcohol-related deaths have had a significant impact on Russia's population, with estimates suggesting over half of adult male deaths in Siberia between 1990 and 2001 were caused by alcohol.
• 💉 The Russian government's efforts to address the issue have been complicated by the reliance on alcohol tax revenue and the political challenges of implementing effective restrictions.
• 🌐 Russia's demographic crisis is multifaceted, involving not only alcohol consumption but also a poor healthcare system, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of ongoing conflict.

Q & A

Why is Chukotka considered an unlikely center for Russian civilization's resurgence?

Chukotka is remote, with its capital Anadyr being the easternmost city in Russia, situated just below the Arctic Circle. It is closer to Chicago than to Moscow, and its connection to the rest of Siberia is limited, with a road expected to be completed in 21 years. The region's population is also very small compared to its size.

What is the significance of the population increase in Anadyr mentioned in the script?

The population increase in Anadyr, though small at 157 people between 2010 and 2021, is significant because it represents a rare instance of population growth in Russia, where most cities have shrunk in size during the same period.

How does Russia's fertility rate compare to the world average and within Russia?

Russia's fertility rate of 1.6 is below the world average but is among the highest within Russia, indicating a general decline in birth rates across the country.

What was the Soviet Union's population peak and how has it changed since its collapse?

The Soviet Union's population peaked at nearly 149 million in the 1980s, making it the 6th largest country in the world. However, after the collapse in 1991, the birth rate has never recovered, leading to a consistent pattern of more deaths than births for the last 33 years except three.

What demographic challenges does Russia face due to its declining birth rate?

Russia faces a significant labor shortage, particularly in the blue-collar and tech sectors, which require a younger workforce. Additionally, the country has a very small percentage of workers under 30 and an extremely low unemployment rate, which could affect its economic growth and military readiness.

How does Russia's demographic situation compare to other countries like Italy, Japan, and Britain?

While Russia, Italy, Japan, and Britain all face challenges due to declining birth rates and aging populations, the causes are different. In Italy, the decline is due to social and economic progress, whereas in Russia, it is a result of economic hardship and despair.

What is the 'Russian Cross' and how does it differ from the demographic trends in Italy?

The 'Russian Cross' refers to the simultaneous occurrence of low birth rates and high death rates in Russia. Unlike Italy, where a decline in birth rates is associated with social progress and better health, Russia's situation is characterized by a lack of new births and an increase in deaths, leading to a more severe demographic crisis.

What role does alcohol play in Russia's high death rates?

Alcohol is a significant factor in Russia's high death rates, with heart-related fatalities, which are the leading cause of death, spiking on weekends. The culture of binge drinking and the consumption of hard alcohol like vodka contribute to a higher rate of alcohol-related deaths.

How did Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign impact the Soviet Union's economy and why was it eventually rolled back?

Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign led to a decrease in consumption and an increase in life expectancy. However, it also resulted in a significant loss of tax revenue, which was crucial for the government's budget. The campaign was rolled back in 1988 due to the economic strain it caused, contributing to the Soviet Union's eventual collapse.

What measures has the Russian government taken to address the demographic crisis, and why might they be insufficient?

The Russian government has implemented policies like the 'Maternity Capital' program to encourage population growth. However, these measures may not be effective due to conflicts with other goals, such as funding for the military over healthcare, and the government's reluctance to address the root causes of the demographic crisis, like alcohol consumption and poor healthcare.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated Russia's demographic and healthcare challenges?

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the inefficiencies in Russia's healthcare system, with low vaccination rates due to public distrust and outdated medical practices. This has led to a high number of deaths, further straining the demographic situation.

What are the long-term consequences of Russia's current demographic and healthcare situation for its economy and society?

The long-term consequences include a shrinking workforce, increased burden on social services due to an aging population, a potential decrease in innovation, and a possible economic decline if the government fails to address these challenges effectively.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Remote Chukotka's Unlikely Role in Russia's Demographic Revival

The script introduces Chukotka, a remote region in Russia, as an unexpected candidate for a demographic resurgence. Despite its isolation, with Anadyr as its capital city situated near the Arctic Circle and closer to Chicago than Moscow, it has gained the attention of President Putin. The region's population is minuscule compared to its size, and its growth rate, although small, is more significant than most Russian cities experiencing shrinkage. The script contrasts Russia's demographic challenges with historical data, showing a decline in birth rates and population since the Soviet Union's collapse, and highlights the country's need for a demographic turnaround.

05:00

📉 The Dual Demographic Crisis: Birth Rates and Life Expectancy in Russia

This paragraph delves into the causes behind Russia's demographic decline, distinguishing it from other countries like Italy where the drop in birth rates is associated with positive social changes. In Russia, the decrease is linked to economic hardship and despair. The script also discusses the 'Russian Cross' phenomenon, where a surge in deaths coincided with falling birth rates, and points to alcohol as a significant factor in the high mortality rate. It provides historical context, comparing the Soviet era's strict alcohol control measures under Gorbachev to the present situation, and the failed attempts to address alcohol-related issues.

10:02

💔 The Impact of Alcohol on Russia's Demographic and Economic Woes

The narrative focuses on alcohol's role in Russia's demographic crisis, illustrating how cultural practices and the type of alcohol consumed contribute to the high mortality rate, particularly among men. It discusses the government's past efforts to curb alcohol consumption and the unintended economic consequences that led to the rollback of such measures. The script also highlights the government's current stance on alcohol taxation and its implications for the country's healthcare and demographic challenges.

15:04

📉 Russia's Population Decline: A Complex Confluence of Factors

The final paragraph synthesizes the various factors contributing to Russia's population decline, including alcohol use, low birth rates, poor healthcare, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing war. It emphasizes the government's inaction and short-term decision-making that exacerbate the demographic crisis. The script concludes with the potential long-term effects of these issues on Russia's economy and society, suggesting that the country is facing a significant demographic and human capital challenge.

Keywords

💡Chukotka

Chukotka is a region in Russia that is geographically distant from the country's political and economic centers. It is located just below the Arctic Circle and is closer to Chicago than to Moscow. In the video, Chukotka is highlighted as an unlikely center for a resurgence of Russian civilization, emphasizing its remoteness and the challenges it faces due to its location.

💡Population Decline

Population decline refers to a situation where the number of people in a region or country is decreasing. The script discusses the shrinking population of Russian cities, with a net increase of only 157 in Chukotka between 2010 and 2021. This decline is a central theme of the video, illustrating the demographic challenges Russia faces.

💡Fertility Rate

Fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman. The video mentions that Chukotka's fertility rate of 1.6 is among the highest in Russia, which has a lower fertility rate than the world average. This concept is important in understanding the demographic trends and the potential for population growth or decline.

💡Demographic Crisis

A demographic crisis is a significant imbalance in a population's age structure, often due to low birth rates and high death rates. The script describes Russia's situation as a demographic crisis, with more deaths than births for many years, leading to a shrinking population and potential economic and social issues.

💡Alcohol Consumption

Alcohol consumption is the act of drinking alcoholic beverages and the amount of alcohol ingested by individuals or populations. The video discusses the high levels of alcohol consumption in Russia, particularly vodka, and its correlation with high death rates, especially among men, contributing to the demographic crisis.

💡Labor Shortage

Labor shortage occurs when there are not enough workers to meet the demand for labor in an economy. The script mentions that Russia has a massive shortage of labor, especially among younger workers, which can impact economic growth and development.

💡Economic Downturn

An economic downturn is a period of negative growth or recession in an economy. The video refers to the economic challenges Russia faces due to its demographic issues, including the need for revenue that sometimes leads to the reversal of health and social measures aimed at curbing alcohol consumption.

💡Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is the average number of years a person is expected to live, often used as an indicator of the overall health and well-being of a population. The video notes that Russian male life expectancy is just 68 years, which is significantly lower than in other countries, largely due to alcohol-related deaths.

💡Mortality Rate

Mortality rate is the ratio of the number of deaths in a particular population to the total population. The video discusses the high mortality rate in Russia, which is partly due to alcohol consumption and contributes to the negative population growth.

💡Birth Rate

Birth rate is the ratio of the number of live births in a particular population to the total population. The script highlights the low birth rate in Russia, which has been below the world average and is a key factor in the country's demographic crisis.

💡Healthcare Efficiency

Healthcare efficiency refers to how well a healthcare system delivers services relative to the resources it uses. The video points out that Russia ranks last in healthcare efficiency among 55 countries, which is a contributing factor to the country's demographic and health challenges.

Highlights

Chukotka, a remote region in Russia, is being portrayed by President Putin as a model for the country's future despite its isolation and small population.

Anadyr, the capital of Chukotka, is closer to Chicago than Moscow and has limited accessibility, with a road connection to Siberia expected to be completed in 21 years.

Chukotka's population is minuscule compared to its size, with the entire region's population equivalent to less than half of Michigan Stadium's capacity.

The region has seen a net population increase of 157 between 2010 and 2021, which is significant given Russia's overall declining birth rates.

Over 70% of Russian cities shrunk between 2010 and 2017, reflecting a broader demographic issue in the country.

Russia's fertility rate of 1.6 is among the highest in the country, contrasting with the world average and highlighting a national trend of decreasing children.

The Soviet Union's population once peaked at nearly 149 million, but has been in decline since its collapse in 1991.

Russia's birth rate has never recovered post-Soviet collapse, leading to a consistent natural population decrease for all but three years in the last 33 years.

Russia is projected to drop to the 20th largest country by population by the end of the century, underscoring the urgency of its demographic challenges.

Russia faces a significant labor shortage, particularly among younger demographics, which is impacting its economy and workforce.

The country's demographic issues are exacerbated by a lack of 33-year-olds, a prime working-age group, due to the birth rate drop 33 years ago.

Globally, countries like China, Korea, and Japan are also experiencing birth rate declines, but Russia's situation is distinguished by its causes and consequences.

In Russia, the decline in birth rates appears to be more a reaction to economic hardship rather than a choice, unlike in countries like Italy.

Russia's high death rates, particularly from heart-related issues, coincide with a surge in alcohol consumption, pointing to alcohol as a significant factor.

Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are staggering, with estimates suggesting over half of adult male deaths in Siberia between 1990 and 2001 were due to alcohol.

Government efforts to combat alcohol consumption have been undermined by the need for tax revenue, revealing a conflict between public health and economic interests.

Russian President Putin acknowledges the demographic crisis as the country's most pressing issue, but policies have been limited in scope and effectiveness.

Russia's healthcare system is ranked last for efficiency, and the government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated demographic issues.

The ongoing war with Ukraine and the subsequent exodus of the population, particularly the young and educated, pose a significant risk to Russia's demographic and economic future.

The combination of alcohol use, declining birth rates, poor healthcare, the pandemic, and war has created a severe demographic challenge for Russia, with population declines accelerating.

Transcripts

Chukotka is an unlikely center for a  resurgence of Russian civilization.

For one, it’s hardly the “center” of anything. Its  capital, Anadyr, is also the country’s easternmost  

city and sits just below the Arctic Circle.  It’s closer to Chicago than it is to Moscow.  

A road connecting it to the rest of Siberia is  on track for completion… in 21 years. Until then,  

the only way out is this airport, accessible  only by helicopter for half the year.

Nor is there much “civilization” to be  found. Despite being larger than France,  

the region’s entire population would  fill less than half of Michigan Stadium.

Life here moves pretty slowly.

When two brave Australian tourists  visited in 2018, they made the local news.

And yet tiny, remote Anadyr, of all places, was  one of the first stops Putin made this year.

There, in a staged meeting with local residents,  

the president celebrated its rising number  of large families, portraying the town as  

a model for the rest of the country,  a beacon of hope for Russia’s future.

So, what “rising number,” exactly, was  Putin referring to? A net population  

increase of 157 between 2010  and 2021, or 14 people per year.

…Not quite the shining success story  the Kremlin would have you believe.

Still, he wasn’t wrong. An  increase of 157 — any increase,  

in fact — is far more than most places can claim.

Between 2010 and 17, over 70% of  Russian cities shrunk in size.

And while Chukotka’s fertility rate of  1.6 is well below the world average,  

it’s among the highest in Russia, where  children are becoming increasingly rare.

In the 1980s, the Soviet Union had one of the  highest birth rates in Europe. Its population  

peaked at nearly 149 million, making it  the 6th largest country in the world.

But after its collapse in ‘91, its birth  rate has never recovered. Since then,  

more Russians have died than been born for  every one of the last 33 years except three.

Russia was first overtaken by Pakistan,  then Nigeria, and finally Bangladesh. And  

by the end of this century, it’s expected  to fall all the way down to 20th place,  

shrinking to three and a half times  smaller than the United States.

Needless to say, these are troubling signs for  a leader intent on reviving the Soviet legacy.

And it gets worse.

Because the Soviet Union collapsed 33 years ago,  birth rates fell 33 years ago, which means today,  

33 years later, Russia is missing a whole lot of  33-year-olds — the prime working-age demographic.

As a result, the country has a massive shortage of  

labor — especially of the blue-collar and  tech variety, which skew much younger.

A mere 15% of all workers are under 30 years old  

and the unemployment rate has now  reached a new low of just 2.6%.

…Not to mention, this dwindling 20-35-year-old  

group is the exact one you’d need,  to, say, fight a troop-intensive war.

Now, Russia is not alone. Far from it.

China’s birth rate, famously,  

fell much faster. Korea’s is much worse.  And Japan’s has stayed low for even longer.

Families across the developed world are getting  

smaller and much of Europe  and East Asia is shrinking.

Take Italy, for instance. As you can see,  

both it and Russia saw the same roughly 50%  drop in births — albeit, with a ten-year delay.

Likewise, both will experience the same economic  challenges stemming from their smaller working-age  

populations. More retirees withdrawing pensions  than young people funding them. Fewer children  

left supporting a larger number of older  relatives. Fewer inventors to invent things,  

landscapers to landscape, and caregivers  to care for a growing cadre of seniors.

Russia may be in trouble, you might  think, but no more so than Italy,  

or Japan, or Britain. “Nothing to see here.”

But… there’s a critical difference.  While the effects may look the same,  

the causes couldn’t be more different.

In Italy, like most countries, these unfortunate  problems have a silver lining. Birth rates fell  

because fewer teenagers were getting pregnant.  Women could go to school, had more career  

opportunities, and were increasingly free to  have as many or as few children as they wanted.

An economic defeat, but a human victory.

Whereas, in Russia, this drop was less a  choice and more a reaction — to hard times,  

mass unemployment, and a general  sense of uncertainty and despair.

An economic and human failure.

Meanwhile, Italians were also living longer,  healthier lives. Medicine was advancing,  

the standard of living was rising,  and pollution was being regulated.

Thus, even while the country  got older, the number of deaths,  

as you can see, remained more or less constant.

The same cannot be said of Russia. And this is  where the two countries really begin to diverge.

There, deaths surged at the exact moment birth  rates fell, producing what demographers call the  

“Russian Cross.” And this was not just a temporary  phenomenon — deaths have remained high ever since.

There’s no silver lining to be found  here. This is the bleak story of a  

nation being squeezed simultaneously from two  directions — fewer births and more deaths.

Consider, for a moment, the scale of this tragedy.  The annual number of deaths more than doubled  

during the thirty years when HIV treatment, ICUs,  and organ transplants became widely available.

As the economist Nicholas Eberstadt once observed,  the last 16 years of Soviet rule saw 11 million  

more births than deaths. Over the next sixteen  years, it saw 12 million more deaths than births.

These are war-like casualties in peacetime.

So, what exactly caused all these deaths?

One clue is that heart-related fatalities — the  leading kind — seem to spike on the weekend.

Another is that — whatever the cause — it  appears less common in Muslim-majority regions.

All signs, in other words, point to alcohol.

The problem is not simply one of quantity. Though  

it certainly doesn’t help that in  some years Russians have consumed  

almost double what the World Health  Organization considers to be dangerous.

The problem, above all, is what  kind of alcohol, where, and when.

The French sip wine, the British  beer, and Russians, overwhelmingly,  

vodka. Some stereotypes, apparently, are true.

Not only do Russians get more  intoxicated, faster, as a result,  

but a deeply embedded culture of social  and binge drinking compounds these effects.

During Soviet times, vodka was sold with  non-reusable caps. Bottles were consumed all at  

once, usually in groups, and often in uncontrolled  public spaces — unsupervised by bartenders.

This is an extremely lethal combination.

So much so that every Russian male  has a roughly 25-30% chance of dying,  

one way or another, thanks to alcohol.

The numbers on screen, bear  in mind, are from 2012,  

but note how Russia’s number is  ten times higher than America’s.

Researchers estimate that between 1990 and 2001,  

over half of all adult male deaths  in Siberia were caused by alcohol.

On top of this, about 30% of all crimes and 72% of  

all murders in 2017 were related to  alcohol, according to the Kremlin.

These are staggering numbers,  particularly for one of the  

world’s most highly educated countries,  with an upper-middle income, no less.

Unsurprisingly, then, the  Russian male life expectancy  

is just 68 years — closer to Haiti than  Germany. The average man in Sweden,  

Switzerland, or Macau will live  a full decade and a half longer.

So, why does the government accept  this tragic state of affairs? Surely,  

even the most corrupt, authoritarian,  and malevolent dictator would recognize  

this for the epidemic it is,  if only out of self-interest.

Well, as it turns out, serious  efforts have been made in the past.

During Soviet times, authorities estimated  that Russians spent 15-20% of their incomes  

on vodka alone. And no fewer than 75% of  work absences were attributed to alcohol.

In response, Gorbachev — a non-drinker himself  — launched the strictest crackdown before  

or since. Prices were increased, manufacturing  restricted, rules tightened, and curfews enforced.

Entire vineyards were even destroyed by the state.

It worked. Almost immediately, consumption fell by  about 25%, and, more importantly, it shifted from  

vodka to beer. In less than 3 years, the male life  expectancy increased by 3.2 years. For women, 1.4.

There was just one problem: or, rather, 28  billion — the number of rubles the government  

lost in tax revenue, which, as Mark Schrad  points out in his book “Vodka Politics,”  

was roughly equivalent to Russia’s total  loss from the collapse of world oil prices.

The Soviet Union, at the time,  

truly ran on vodka — the tax revenue from  which funded 25% of the government’s budget.

So, left with no other choice,  

Gorbachev rolled back the campaign in  1988, just three years after it began.

But it was too late. To fund the deficit, the  Soviet Union began printing money, which broke  

the state-run economy, which led to shortages,  which, in turn, caused its total collapse.

It would be too simplistic to say the  anti-alcohol campaign brought down the  

Soviet Union. But experts generally agree that  it contributed, at the very least, to its demise.

Then, just when you thought things  couldn’t possibly get worse, they did.

After 1991, alcohol suddenly became extremely  cheap and even more accessible. In other words,  

the floodgates were opened after  3 years of pent-up demand at the  

exact moment Russians were at their most hopeless.

If they drank profusely before,  now they were off the charts.

Consumption soared as they made  up for lost time …and then some.

Over two decades later, Putin’s political  placeholder, President Medvedev, tried again,  

this time with more modest reforms — mandating  health warnings, cracking down on DUIs, and,  

if you can believe it, reclassifying beer as  “alcohol,” rather than mere “food” product.

But, once again, during its economic downturn in  2014 when it was in dire need of extra revenue,  

many of these measures were  reversed. In the meantime,  

Russians turned to all manner of far  more dangerous alcohol substitutes.

The lesson? Don’t touch alcohol restrictions  with a ten-foot pole. They’re costly,  

they’re wildly unpopular, and they don’t work.

During the Great Recession, Russia’s finance  

minister removed any doubt about  the government’s true motives,  

saying the best thing ordinary citizens  could do to help the economy was drink more.

And one final cherry on top: a popular  brand of Russian vodka is named after  

Putin — who ironically, is  a teetotaler like Gorbachev.

Now, Russia almost certainly stands more to lose  

from encouraging alcohol consumption  than it does to gain from taxing it.

As early as 2006, Putin declared the demographic  crisis to be Russia’s “most important problem.”  

Two decades later, he continues to say similar  things, most recently on his trip to Anadyr.

And this isn’t just empty rhetoric. The country’s  “Maternity Capital” program encourages population  

growth by giving new families a one-time  payment for giving birth to or adopting a child.

Still, these are relatively  easy, low-risk policies — and,  

frankly, likely not all that effective.

Whenever this demographic goal conflicts with  any other goal, the latter inevitably wins.

Year after year, Putin has  made short-term decisions  

that aggravate the problem  and mortgage Russia’s future.

Take healthcare, for example.

In a recent report, Russia ranked last out  of 55 countries for healthcare efficiency.  

Hospitals are so dirty, corruption so rampant, and  medical practices so outdated that many people,  

especially those outside of major  cities, avoid seeking care altogether.

At no time was this more on display  than during the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Distrustful of the government,  people avoided vaccines. Today,  

a smaller share of its population is fully  vaccinated than the lowest U.S. state — Wyoming.

As a result, as many as 1 million Russians may  have died of the virus, according to outside  

estimates. If true, this would make it one of  the highest per-capita death rates in the world.

Rather than fund its outdated hospitals, the  government diverts money toward the military.

Estimates of Russian casualties from its  war with Ukraine range between 100,000 and  

500,000 — in either case, a massive chunk of  the demographic its economy needs the most.

Not to mention: countless families have fled the  country since the war began — likely 1-2 million,  

including 200,000 in the first  10 days of the invasion alone.

Keep in mind that only 29% of the population — the  elite — hold a passport. Those who are leaving,  

in other words, are disproportionately young,  

wealthy, well-educated, and  have skills in high demand.

The loss of 100,000 software engineers,  

on its own, will cause chaos in Russia’s  once-thriving technology industry.

Add all this up — alcohol use, declining  birth rates, the poor state of healthcare,  

the pandemic, war, and the subsequent  exodus, and Russia has a serious problem.

It’s running out of people.

In 2020 and 2021, its population declined by over  a million. And the worst may still be yet to come.

Again, none of this was unforeseeable,  

which only makes the Russian government’s  inaction that much more concerning.

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