BREAKING DOWN LIVE PRICE ACTION W/T NICOTRADES

Summary

In this detailed trading session, the trader discusses their analysis of the market, focusing on price action, the use of spatial manipulation techniques (SMT), and key chart patterns. Throughout the video, they break down market behavior, looking for signs of reversals or continued trends, while managing risk and anticipating movements. The trader provides insights into the current price structure, potential trades, and market dynamics. With a focus on patience and careful observation, they emphasize the importance of waiting for confirmations before making trades, especially on a Friday, and reflect on their trading approach to build consistency and confidence.

Takeaways

• 😀 The session begins with a casual update, with the trader noting the cold weather and the fact that it’s Friday, signaling a relaxed mood.
• 😀 Market analysis starts by looking at news releases from Forex Factory, indicating potential volatility around 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM.
• 😀 The trader highlights a specific focus on price action, observing that recent price movements are indicating potential reversal patterns, particularly around key Fibonacci levels.
• 😀 There’s a focus on liquidity, with the trader speculating that price movements might create opportunities for manipulation or retracement, especially around previous highs and lows.
• 😀 The trader frequently uses technical terms like 'expansion,' 'reversal,' 'failure swings,' and 'fair value gaps' to describe market behavior.
• 😀 The trader analyzes a possible market maker model scenario, speculating on a potential U-shaped reversal pattern after a series of expansions and retracements.
• 😀 An important aspect of the analysis is the observation of changes in the state of delivery, particularly on the 30-minute and 4-hour charts, signaling potential shift in market momentum.
• 😀 The trader discusses using multiple timeframes (1-minute, 30-minute, hourly, and 4-hour) to get a more granular view of price action, especially when forming an SMT (Symmetry Market Timing).
• 😀 There's an emphasis on patience and waiting for confirmation, as the trader is cautious about entering trades prematurely, particularly on Fridays when volatility can be unpredictable.
• 😀 Ultimately, the trader's key decision point revolves around how YM (Dow Jones) reacts to previous day’s low, as this will guide further decisions about whether to trade long or short with NQ and ES catching up.

Q & A

What was the focus of the trader's analysis in this session?

The trader's focus was on analyzing market conditions, specifically the Forex market, and making decisions based on price action, technical indicators, and key levels such as previous highs/lows and Fibonacci retracements. The trader was also observing the behavior of different assets like YM, NQ, and ES, and how they interacted with each other.

What does the trader mean by 'previous day's high' and 'previous day's low'?

The 'previous day's high' and 'previous day's low' refer to the highest and lowest price levels reached during the previous trading day. These levels are significant for the trader as they represent key support and resistance points, and the market often reacts to these levels in subsequent trading sessions.

What is an SMT (Smart Money Trap) and how does it affect trading decisions?

An SMT (Smart Money Trap) occurs when price action appears to form a reversal or a false breakout, tricking traders into making incorrect decisions. The trader uses SMTs to identify potential reversals and decide whether to go long or short. In the script, the trader is looking for confirmation of an SMT to align with other indicators and market structure before making a trade.

How does the trader manage risk during trades?

The trader emphasizes patience and careful observation of price action. They avoid making impulsive decisions, especially on Fridays, and prefer to wait for stronger confirmations. For example, they wait for a confirmation of a strength switch or a clear market direction before taking positions. Additionally, the trader secures profits gradually and uses tighter stop-losses to manage risk effectively.

What role do the news releases at 9:45 and 10:00 play in the trader's strategy?

The news releases at 9:45 and 10:00 are seen as potential catalysts that could cause significant price movement. The trader is anticipating possible volatility around these times and is waiting to see how the market reacts to the news, especially regarding assets like YM, NQ, and ES. This helps the trader make more informed decisions on whether to enter or exit trades.

Why does the trader not like the current market conditions for a long position?

The trader expresses concern about the market's failure to take out the previous day's high and the presence of failure swings at key levels. These factors suggest that the market might not be strong enough for a sustained upward move, making a long position riskier. The trader prefers to wait for more confirmations or to look for short opportunities.

What is the significance of the 30-minute, hourly, and 4-hour charts in the trader's analysis?

The trader uses different time frames to get a more comprehensive view of the market. The 30-minute chart is used for shorter-term reactions, the hourly chart helps identify intermediate-term trends, and the 4-hour chart is used for higher-level trend analysis. The trader looks for alignment across these time frames to confirm potential entries and exits.

What does the trader mean by 'failure swings' and how do they impact the strategy?

Failure swings refer to price action where the market fails to break through key support or resistance levels, creating a 'swing' in the opposite direction. The trader views these as signs of weakness or lack of momentum, which can indicate a potential reversal or continuation of the trend. In the script, failure swings are used to identify areas where the market might reverse or consolidate.

Why does the trader emphasize the importance of patience in trading?

Patience is critical because market conditions are constantly changing. The trader highlights the need to wait for clear confirmations, especially when price action is uncertain or moving sideways. By being patient, the trader can avoid entering trades prematurely and increase the likelihood of a successful trade based on solid analysis.

What is the trader’s approach to trading on Fridays?

The trader is more cautious on Fridays, acknowledging that the market can be unpredictable. They avoid aggressive trades and prefer to analyze the market carefully, often choosing to walk away if no clear opportunity arises by the time they need to leave for personal commitments. The trader also focuses on securing profits if a trade does work out and prefers to enjoy the weekend without stress.