How Statistics Supports our Intuition | Ostap Okhrin | TEDxDresden

Summary

The speaker explores the omnipresence of statistics in daily life, from avoiding tigers at the zoo to planning vacations and playing board games with kids. They delve into weather forecasting, analyze movie ratings on IMDB to understand gender preferences, and even apply statistical analysis to J.R.R. Tolkien's works. The talk illustrates how everyone has an 'internal statistician', making decisions based on probabilities and data, and emphasizes the pervasive role of statistics in our lives.

Takeaways

• 📊 Statistics is a branch of mathematics and probability theory, linking complex mathematical formulas with the real world full of data and observations.
• 🧠 Everyone has an 'internal statistician' that influences daily decisions, such as avoiding crowded places on Saturdays or choosing the best time to refuel a car.
• 💏 Statistical tendencies are observed in human behavior, like the common direction of head turns during kissing, and who initiates kisses in heterosexual couples.
• 🌡 Weather forecasting is an example of statistics in action, using various models to predict temperatures and probabilities of different weather conditions.
• 📈 The speaker compared different weather forecasting websites, noting how they use statistical models to provide short-term and long-term predictions, which can vary due to different underlying models.
• 🎲 Board games can demonstrate the role of statistics in determining the probability of winning and losing, and how the distribution of outcomes can be symmetric or skewed.
• 👫 The importance of considering the sample size and demographic when evaluating ratings, such as movie ratings on IMDB, to understand potential biases or dependencies.
• 🎬 The use of statistical analysis to determine if a movie is 'male' or 'female' based on the correlation between gender and ratings, and the importance of a balanced rating distribution.
• 📚 The application of statistical techniques like cluster analysis to determine the similarity between books, as demonstrated with works by J.R.R. Tolkien and his son Christopher Tolkien.
• 📘 The difference in perception and content between books written by J.R.R. Tolkien and those edited by Christopher Tolkien, highlighting the role of posthumous editing in shaping literary works.
• 🌳 The idea that children can 'feel' statistics through games, indicating that an understanding of statistics is innate and can be developed through everyday experiences.

Q & A

What is the role of different disciplines in decision-making during a day?

Different disciplines like biology, physics, and chemistry support us in making decisions by providing knowledge about the natural world and its phenomena. For instance, biology might warn us about the danger of approaching a tiger, while physics helps us understand forces needed to cross a river.

How is statistics related to mathematics and probability theory?

Statistics is a branch of mathematics and is deeply connected to probability theory. It links complex mathematical formulas with real-world data and observations, helping us make sense of patterns and trends in the data.

Why do people tend to avoid shopping on Saturdays according to the speaker's experience?

People tend to avoid shopping on Saturdays because it is commonly known to be crowded, suggesting that there is an internal statistician in everyone that guides decisions based on observed patterns and experiences.

What does the speaker imply about the statistical tendency in car fuel prices?

The speaker implies that car fuel prices are higher during early mornings and evenings, and lower during the day, suggesting a statistical understanding of pricing patterns that influences when people choose to refuel.

What is the significance of the direction people lean while kissing according to the speaker?

The speaker mentions a statistical tendency for people to lean their heads to the right while kissing in most cases, and that in heterosexual couples, males often initiate kisses, indicating how statistics can reveal subtle patterns in human behavior.

How does the speaker describe the process of checking weather forecasts for vacation planning?

The speaker describes checking weather forecasts by visiting different websites like 'avatar' and 'vet online', which use various statistical models to predict temperatures, helping in making informed vacation plans.

What is the game 'Asteroids Garden' and how does it relate to the concept of probability?

'Asteroids Garden' is a game involving rolling dice to collect fruits or advance a crow in the garden. It is a game of pure chance with an 80% winning probability against the crow, illustrating the concept of probability in a fun context.

How does the game 'Lifter des Plaines' differ from 'Asteroids Garden' in terms of decision-making?

'Lifter des Plaines' also involves rolling dice but differs in that it is a competitive game where players make individual decisions based on the dice roll, contrasting with the team-based, decision-less gameplay of 'Asteroids Garden'.

What is the significance of the correlation coefficient in the context of movie ratings and gender?

The correlation coefficient is used to measure the dependency between movie ratings and gender. A higher coefficient indicates a stronger relationship, suggesting that certain movies may be preferred by specific genders based on the ratings.

How did the speaker use statistical analysis to compare books by J.R.R. Tolkien and his son Christopher Tolkien?

The speaker used cluster analysis to compare the most frequently used words in the books by J.R.R. Tolkien and Christopher Tolkien, resulting in a dendrogram that grouped the books based on their linguistic similarity, revealing differences in their writing styles.

What conclusion does the speaker draw about the presence of a 'statistician' within us?

The speaker concludes that everyone has an internal statistician that helps us make decisions based on patterns and probabilities, whether in everyday activities like shopping or in more complex scenarios like analyzing literary works.