Using Daily Profiles to Confirm a Bias (And More)

Summary

In this video, the presenter explains how to use daily profiles to confirm biases and frame high-probability trades, particularly during the New York session. By understanding how the daily candle forms, traders can leverage price action between the London and New York sessions to predict market movements. The video covers three specific daily profiles—London reversal, New York reversal, and New York manipulation—while emphasizing the importance of higher time frame bias. Examples of real trades are shared, demonstrating how to apply these concepts for more precise entries and exits. The presentation also explains the logic and data behind the effectiveness of these strategies.

Takeaways

• 😀 Understanding daily profiles can help confirm biases and frame high-probability trades during the New York session.
• 😀 Daily profiles are formed by analyzing lower time frame price action between the London and New York sessions, providing insights on how the daily candle will expand.
• 😀 A bullish daily profile is formed when price trades lower in the London session before reversing, expecting New York to expand upwards.
• 😀 A bearish daily profile is formed when price trades higher in the London session before reversing, expecting New York to expand downwards.
• 😀 It's crucial to understand the higher time frame narrative and bias before using daily profiles, as relying solely on the profiles without context leads to inaccurate market readings.
• 😀 The London reversal profile occurs when the intraday high or low is formed in London and price reverses in New York, expanding in the opposite direction.
• 😀 The New York reversal profile occurs when the intraday high or low is formed in New York, expecting price to reverse and continue the expansion throughout the session.
• 😀 The New York manipulation profile is identified when price consolidates during London session, and New York opens with manipulation of this consolidation range before expanding in the opposite direction.
• 😀 Time windows are crucial for trading daily profiles: London session runs from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m. (EST) and New York session runs from 7 a.m. to 12 p.m. (EST), depending on the market (Forex or indices).
• 😀 An invalidation of a daily profile occurs when there is an excessive price movement during London that exhausts the daily range, leaving low probability for continuation in the New York session.

Q & A

What is a daily profile and why is it useful?

A daily profile is the lower-timeframe price action divided between the London and New York sessions, showing how the daily candle forms. It’s useful because it helps confirm higher-timeframe bias and identify high-probability intraday entries based on expected daily candle structure.

Why must a higher timeframe bias be established before using daily profiles?

Daily profiles are confirmation tools, not bias-generating tools. Without a correct higher timeframe narrative, the daily profile framework can produce inaccurate intraday reads and misleading trade setups.

Which time windows define the London and New York sessions for daily profile analysis?

London: 2 a.m.–5 a.m. EST. New York (Forex): 7 a.m.–10 a.m. EST. New York (Indices): 8:30 a.m.–12 p.m. EST. These windows align with the typical periods of volatility, reversals, and expansions.

What characterizes a bullish London reversal daily profile?

London trades below the daily open into an hourly or higher timeframe point of interest, reverses, and forms the daily wick. New York then expands upward, forming the body of the daily candle. The London low should not be revisited during New York.

What characterizes a bearish London reversal daily profile?

London trades above the daily open into a higher-timeframe PD array, reverses, and creates the daily upper wick. New York then expands downward, forming the majority of the candle body.

How does a New York reversal differ from a London reversal?

In a New York reversal, London fails to reach a relevant higher-timeframe point of interest and does not show willingness to reverse. The intraday high or low is instead formed around New York open, which then reverses and expands in the direction of the daily bias.

What is the defining feature of a New York manipulation profile?

London forms a consolidation range around the daily open. At New York open, price manipulates the external end of that range (the high or low) and then aggressively expands in the opposite direction, aligning with the higher timeframe bias.

Under what condition can a trader ignore the manipulation of London’s consolidation range in a New York manipulation profile?

Only if a correlated pair manipulates the external range while the instrument being traded fails to do so, forming SMT (Smart Money Tool) divergence, and the London range interacted with a significant higher-timeframe level.

What is the key invalidation signal for all three daily profiles?

A large London-session expansion toward the draw on liquidity. This exhausts the daily range and makes New York unlikely to produce a clean directional expansion, reducing trade probability significantly.

Why do daily profiles work from a statistical perspective?

Because London and New York are the two windows where volatility reliably enters the market. Data shows volatility spikes at 3 a.m. (London open), dips, then spikes again between 8:30–10 a.m. New York. These volatility patterns naturally create reversals, manipulations, and expansions forming the daily candle structure.

How is a change in state of delivery (CSD) used within daily profiles?

CSD confirms that price is ready to reverse and expand in the expected direction. It serves as entry confirmation, typically identified on the 15m or 30m, or on the 5m for closer-proximity entries during New York reversals or manipulations.

In the examples provided, how does the trader determine exit points?

Exits occur at logical objectives such as external highs or lows of consolidation ranges, typically where the daily candle is expected to form its high or low of day under the chosen daily profile.