Why Did the SNP Do So Badly?

Summary

The video delves into the S&P's dramatic election collapse, examining their dwindling support in Scotland. Despite once dominating Scottish politics, the S&P’s poor performance stems from internal infighting and underperformance in public services like healthcare and education. While Scottish independence remains a steady 45% support, the party's focus on social issues and shifting political positions has made them resemble a nationalist version of Labour. Looking ahead, the S&P’s recovery hinges on Labour’s public service promises and how independence policies evolve under their Devolution approach.

Takeaways

• 😀 The SNP hoped the election would be a turning point despite scandals and internal conflicts but ended up with its worst result in over a decade.
• 😀 The SNP won just nine seats in 2024, down 80% from the 2019 election, where they had dominated with 48 seats.
• 😀 Despite their loss, the SNP still maintained around 30% of the popular vote, suggesting that they could have had more seats with a slightly better performance.
• 😀 Labour's resurgence in Scotland was a major factor in the SNP's decline, winning 37 out of 57 seats, which marked a significant reversal of the SNP's rise in Scotland since 2010.
• 😀 The SNP’s issues are not entirely linked to the public's appetite for Scottish independence, as support for independence remains relatively steady at about 45%.
• 😀 The SNP’s electoral decline is attributed to their poor record on public services, including record NHS waiting times and declining performance in education since COVID.
• 😀 Chronic infighting within the SNP, especially after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation and arrest, has destabilized the party and contributed to its electoral failure.
• 😀 The SNP has struggled to unify the socially conservative and liberal wings of the party, which has led to internal divisions and weak leadership transitions.
• 😀 The SNP's shift towards more moderate, bread-and-butter issues puts them in competition with Labour, leading to a situation where both parties are fighting for the same political space.
• 😀 Labour's Devolution policy, which aims to decentralize power without exacerbating nationalist sentiments, remains a key challenge for the SNP's future, as it could potentially address some of Scotland's calls for autonomy without promoting full independence.

Q & A

What was the main reason for the SNP's significant loss in the 2024 general election?

The SNP's loss in the 2024 general election can be attributed to a combination of factors including their poor record on public services, internal party infighting after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, and an inability to effectively mobilize their base.

What was the SNP's seat count in the 2024 election, and how does this compare to previous results?

The SNP won just nine seats in the 2024 general election, a drastic drop of 80% from their 2019 result, where they had won 48 out of the 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons.

How did Labour perform in the 2024 election in Scotland?

Labour had a major resurgence in Scotland, winning 37 of the 57 available seats. This marked a significant shift in Scottish politics, as Labour had been largely overshadowed by the SNP in recent years.

What role did public services play in the SNP's decline?

The SNP's poor record on public services, particularly the NHS and education system, hurt their performance. Despite spending more per capita on these services, waiting lists and education standards, especially after COVID-19, were significant points of concern for voters.

Did the issue of Scottish independence affect the SNP's performance in the 2024 election?

Polling suggests that support for Scottish independence has remained stable at about 45%. Therefore, the SNP's decline doesn't seem to be directly linked to a decrease in support for independence but rather due to other issues like their governance and internal party conflicts.

What internal issues plagued the SNP in the lead-up to the 2024 election?

The SNP was affected by chronic infighting, especially after Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and subsequent arrest. The leadership contest between socially conservative and liberal factions, followed by leadership changes, created instability and division within the party.

How did the SNP's internal leadership changes impact their election results?

Leadership changes, particularly after the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, created further division within the SNP. The narrow victory of Humza Yousaf in the leadership race and his later resignation showed a lack of clear direction, which likely hurt the party's unity and effectiveness.

What shift in the SNP's political strategy occurred under Humza Yousaf and John Swinney?

Humza Yousaf’s leadership initially focused on social liberal issues, while John Swinney, his successor, aimed to reposition the SNP as a more moderate, left-of-center party in line with mainstream Scottish public opinion. This shift was intended to broaden the SNP's appeal but also created tension within the party.

Can the SNP recover from their poor election results, and what would be required for that?

The SNP's recovery depends on two factors: their ability to refocus on public services and address issues like healthcare and education, and whether they can resolve internal party divisions. Their future also hinges on whether Scottish independence will become a more prominent issue on the political agenda.

What was Labour's approach to devolution, and how might this impact the SNP?

Labour's current approach to devolution aims to decentralize power to subnational regional authorities, which could address Scotland’s desire for autonomy without reigniting nationalist sentiment. This approach could present a challenge to the SNP if it successfully addresses Scotland's political demands without pushing for full independence.