Prediksi IMF Terbaru Soal Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia dan Tekanan Inflasi 2025 | KONTAN News

Summary

The IMF's global economic outlook for 2025 projects stable growth with disinflationary trends, though uncertainty over US trade policies, especially under President-elect Donald Trump, poses challenges. The US economy has exceeded expectations, with inflation near target and a stable labor market, but high interest rates are likely to persist. Regional disparities in economic trends are evident, such as slowing growth in the EU, deflation in China, and inflationary pressures in Brazil. The IMF stresses the need for fiscal reforms and structural adjustments to ensure sustainable growth, projecting a slight dip in global growth for 2025 at 3.1%, lower than pre-pandemic trends.

Takeaways

• 😀 The IMF projects stable global economic growth for 2025 with continued disinflationary trends.
• 😀 The US economy has outperformed expectations, but uncertainty over trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump is impacting the global economy.
• 😀 Long-term interest rates are rising due to global economic pressures, even with inflation near the Federal Reserve's target.
• 😀 The US central bank is expected to hold off on interest rate cuts while awaiting more data on inflation and the labor market.
• 😀 Interest rates are expected to stay high for an extended period to combat inflation globally.
• 😀 Growth in the European Union is expected to slow slightly in 2025, while inflation is higher in Brazil and deflationary pressures are present in China.
• 😀 Low-income countries remain vulnerable to economic shocks, despite ongoing reforms, and cannot rely on borrowing to solve their problems.
• 😀 The IMF highlights the importance of US policies, including tax rates and deregulation, which influence global economic stability.
• 😀 Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies is an additional challenge for countries integrated into the global supply chain.
• 😀 The IMF forecasts a 3.2% global growth rate for 2024, but lowers its 2025 projection to 3.1%, which is lower than pre-pandemic trends.
• 😀 Fiscal spending cuts and structural reforms are needed in most countries to achieve sustainable economic growth.

Q & A

What is the IMF's global growth projection for 2025?

The IMF projects stable global economic growth in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.1%, which is slightly lower than the pre-pandemic trend.

How did the US economy perform in 2025 according to the IMF?

The US economy performed better than expected in 2025, but uncertainty over trade policies from the incoming Trump administration is putting pressure on the global economy.

What is the outlook for US interest rates?

Interest rates in the US are expected to remain high for quite some time, with the Federal Reserve likely waiting for more data before deciding on any further rate cuts.

What are the IMF's expectations regarding inflation in the US?

Inflation in the US is near the Federal Reserve's target, and it is expected that interest rates will remain high until further data is analyzed.

How is inflation impacting different regions globally?

Inflation varies by region: it is higher in Brazil, while China is facing deflationary pressures, and the EU and India are experiencing a slight slowdown in growth.

What challenges are low-income countries facing, according to the IMF?

Low-income countries remain vulnerable to new shocks, and despite reforms, they cannot borrow their way out of their problems. Growth is necessary to overcome these challenges.

What role do US policies play in the global economy?

US policies, including tax rates, deregulation, and government efficiency, significantly impact the global economy. Trade policy uncertainty further complicates matters, especially for countries integrated into global supply chains.

How have high interest rates affected the global economy?

Despite the high interest rates needed to combat inflation, the global economy has not fallen into recession, but central banks need to monitor local inflation developments closely.

What did the IMF say about the need for fiscal policies in 2025?

The IMF emphasized the need for fiscal spending cuts and structural reforms to boost sustainable growth in most countries.

What is the IMF's 2024 global growth forecast?

The IMF has maintained its 2024 global growth projection at 3.2%.