My ChatGPT Model Reveals EXACTLY When Alt-Season Begins!

Summary

This video discusses the current state of altcoin markets, contrasting it with explosive altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021. It introduces an AI model designed to predict when the next altcoin season will begin, based on factors like Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum's performance, and retail interest. The speaker highlights how the market this cycle is different due to factors like monetary tightening, institutional Bitcoin adoption, and low retail participation. The AI model provides a structured framework to track the conditions necessary for an altcoin rally, offering viewers a tangible way to predict and act on upcoming altcoin seasons.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin dominance has been rising, and altcoins have been underperforming, with only 19 out of the top 100 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
• 😀 The current cycle has been different from previous alt seasons, mainly due to macroeconomic factors like monetary tightening and reduced stimulus.
• 😀 Previous altcoin seasons were fueled by massive liquidity and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021, leading to explosive altcoin growth.
• 😀 The institutionalization of Bitcoin and the popularity of ETFs have shifted the market, leading to less capital flowing into altcoins.
• 😀 Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin has been weak this cycle, which is another factor preventing a broader altcoin rally.
• 😀 The retail market is also less interested in crypto due to previous scams and the collapse of major platforms, such as FTX.
• 😀 The altcoin season index is still low, indicating Bitcoin is in control and there hasn't been a broad-based altcoin rally.
• 😀 The altcoin season this cycle is expected to be sector-specific and shorter, with selective outperformance in sectors like AI and real-world assets (RWA).
• 😀 A new AI-driven model has been developed to predict altcoin seasons based on Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum leadership, altcoin breadth, and market sentiment.
• 😀 Key metrics for triggering an altcoin season include Bitcoin dominance reversing by 4 percentage points, Ethereum BTC closing above its 200-day moving average, the altcoin season index above 40, and increasing Google search demand and stablecoin supply.
• 😀 The altcoin season score is calculated based on these metrics, with a score above 0.7 indicating the potential start of an altcoin season. However, the market is currently at a score of 0.33, indicating we are not yet in altcoin season.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is predicting when the next altcoin season will begin, with a focus on how this cycle differs from previous ones and how a custom AI model has been developed to track altcoin season triggers.

Why have altcoins struggled to pump in the current cycle?

Altcoins have struggled to pump due to factors like Bitcoin dominance rising, less stimulus in the economy compared to the previous cycles, the institutionalization of Bitcoin, and a lack of retail interest in the space.

What was the major contributing factor to the explosive altcoin season in 2020 and 2021?

The explosive altcoin season in 2020 and 2021 was largely driven by unprecedented stimulus measures during the pandemic, which gave people more disposable income to invest in crypto, combined with a monetary easing environment that fueled risk-taking.

What makes the current altcoin season different from the previous ones?

The current altcoin season is different because there is no crazy stimulus like in previous cycles, Bitcoin's dominance is higher, and retail interest is lower due to market participants feeling burnt by past scams and the lack of a clear market narrative.

What are the key pillars in the AI model used to predict altcoin season?

The key pillars in the AI model include: Bitcoin dominance momentum, Ethereum's performance versus Bitcoin, the altcoin season index, and narrative momentum (measured by retail search demand and stablecoin liquidity).

How is Bitcoin dominance measured in the model?

Bitcoin dominance is measured by tracking the 21-day change in percentage points. For an altcoin season to be triggered, Bitcoin dominance must reverse by 4 percentage points and close below 60%.

What is the significance of the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio in predicting altcoin season?

The ETH/BTC ratio is significant because Ethereum's leadership historically precedes broader altcoin rallies. To trigger an altcoin season, ETH/BTC needs to close above the 200-day moving average and achieve a new 90-day high.

What role does the altcoin season index play in the model?

The altcoin season index tracks how the top 50 altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin. For an altcoin season to be triggered, the index must rise above 40 and stay above that level for two consecutive weeks.

What does the 'narrative pulse' refer to in the AI model, and how is it measured?

The narrative pulse refers to retail interest and the liquidity flowing into the market, measured by Google Trends for crypto-related searches and stablecoin market cap growth. A Google Trends score above 30 and a stablecoin market cap increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter are required for the green threshold.

What does the altcoin season score represent, and how is it calculated?

The altcoin season score represents the likelihood of an altcoin season based on the AI model's criteria. It is calculated by scoring each of the four pillars (Bitcoin dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, altcoin season index, and narrative pulse), with specific weights assigned to each, resulting in a final score. A score above 0.7 for seven consecutive days indicates that an altcoin season is triggered.