This man accurately predicted 84k BTC 129 days Ago and made another BULL Prediction

Summary

In this video, the host discusses Josh Mandel, a retired Wall Street trader who made an accurate Bitcoin prediction in November 2024, forecasting an 84k Bitcoin price by Pi Day 2025. Mandel's prediction was notably precise, occurring just 0.27% off the actual value, raising questions about the credibility of his next prediction of a Bitcoin top at 444k in 2026. The host dives into Mandel’s risky trading strategies, including turning $2M into $20M through options trading, and reflects on the implications of his cryptic poems and forecasts, urging caution in following his advice.

Takeaways

• 😀 Josh Mandel predicted Bitcoin would hit $84k on Pi Day (3/14/2025), 129 days before the event, with an impressive level of accuracy.
• 😀 Mandel used a cryptic poem in November 2024 to forecast Bitcoin's price, and his prediction was remarkably close, within 0.27% of the actual close.
• 😀 He predicted that Bitcoin would reach $84k, despite many Bitcoiners expecting higher prices, and made profitable bets based on this forecast.
• 😀 Mandel engaged in high-risk trading strategies, including selling in-the-money call options on MicroStrategy, which allowed him to turn $2 million into $20 million.
• 😀 The accuracy of Mandel's prediction raised questions about whether people should trust his future forecasts, given the volatility and risk involved in his trades.
• 😀 Mandel's second prediction involves Bitcoin reaching a top of $444k in approximately 360 days, based on his cryptic poem, signaling the end of this bull run.
• 😀 He advised buying Bitcoin ETF calls (like IBIT) to leverage Bitcoin exposure, rather than directly purchasing Bitcoin, but emphasized the risks of such a strategy.
• 😀 The poem's complex language and predictions suggest both caution and intrigue, with Mandel making bold statements about Bitcoin's price trajectory.
• 😀 Mandel's financial history includes impressive credentials as a former Wall Street trader, with experience at firms like Solomon Brothers and Kton Associates.
• 😀 Despite the success of his predictions and trades, caution is advised when following his high-risk strategies, especially given the inherent risks with call options and leverage.

Q & A

Who is Josh Mandel and what is his background?

Josh Mandel is a retired Wall Street trader with impressive credentials. He worked at Solomon Brothers during its peak years in the 1990s and later at Kton Associates, a hedge fund managing $12 billion in assets. He has been actively trading Bitcoin for over a year and has gained significant attention for his accurate predictions in the cryptocurrency market.

What was Josh Mandel's Bitcoin prediction for Pi Day?

Josh Mandel predicted that Bitcoin would reach $84,000 on Pi Day, March 14, 2025, which was an exact prediction made 129 days in advance. He shared this forecast in a cryptic poem posted in November 2024, and his prediction was remarkably close to the actual closing price.

How did Josh Mandel’s prediction differ from other Bitcoin enthusiasts?

Many Bitcoin enthusiasts were expecting much higher prices during this rally, but Josh Mandel predicted a more conservative $84,000. His prediction went against the majority's expectations, who were anticipating a larger upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

What trading strategy did Josh Mandel use to capitalize on Bitcoin's price movements?

Josh Mandel used a strategy involving selling in-the-money call options on MicroStrategy stock. This allowed him to earn significant premiums, turning $2 million into $20 million. He also bought leveraged Bitcoin ETF calls (iBIT) to maximize his exposure to Bitcoin’s volatility.

What role did options trading play in Josh Mandel’s success?

Options trading played a crucial role in Mandel's success, particularly selling covered calls and using leverage with Bitcoin ETFs. Through options, he was able to generate large returns, with a high level of risk involved. Selling in-the-money options provided high premiums, which helped him achieve substantial profits.

What is the significance of the cryptic poem posted by Josh Mandel?

The poem, posted in November 2024, contained a prediction about Bitcoin’s price movements and trading strategies. It suggested that Bitcoin would hit $84,000, act as a launching pad for further gains, and potentially reach a peak of $444,000. The poem's cryptic nature left room for interpretation, adding mystery and intrigue to Mandel’s predictions.

How does the speaker interpret the poem’s reference to '360 more' and 'a trio of fours times a grand'?

The speaker initially interpreted '360 more' as a reference to 360 days, but later realized it likely refers to a price movement from $84,000 to $444,000, with '360' symbolizing that range. The 'trio of fours times a grand' refers to the price target of $444,000, which Mandel predicts as the peak for Bitcoin in the future.

What are the risks of following Josh Mandel’s trading strategy?

The risks of following Josh Mandel’s trading strategy, especially involving options, are significant. Options have expiration dates, and if the market moves against the position, the options can expire worthless. Leveraged positions also carry increased risks, and there’s a danger of losing the entire investment if the market doesn’t move as expected. Mandel’s strategies may not be suitable for inexperienced traders.

What is the speaker’s view on copying Mandel’s trading methods?

The speaker advises caution when considering copying Mandel’s trading methods. While Mandel’s past successes are impressive, options trading, especially with leverage, is risky and complex. The speaker warns that copying such strategies without sufficient knowledge or experience can lead to significant losses.

What is the significance of Josh Mandel’s public portfolio?

Josh Mandel’s public portfolio, which has grown from $2.1 million to $22 million in one year, showcases his success in navigating the cryptocurrency market. His portfolio includes a mix of call options, cash, and shares of MicroStrategy, reflecting his approach to both short- and long-term strategies. However, the speaker notes that this is a highly complex portfolio and may not be suitable for most investors.