πŸ” Is Bitcoin Stuck? 🚧 Let's Uncover On-Chain Secrets!

InvestAnswers
27 Aug 202422:05

Summary

TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the current state of Bitcoin, noting the market's equilibrium with no immediate pressure to rise or fall. They cover recent news, including Bitcoin's addition to the Oxford English Dictionary 11 years ago and the upcoming introduction of Bitcoin index options by NASDAQ. The host questions the lack of transparency in ETF Bitcoin addresses and speculates on the large inflows into Bitcoin ETFs despite price stagnation. They also analyze various charts, indicating a potential upcoming shift in the market and the possibility of an undervalued Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“… The video is discussing the current state of the Bitcoin market on a Tuesday, noting that the term 'OCT' has become significant but will be discussed the next day as 'OCTA'.
  • 🧘 The speaker introduces the topic of market equilibrium, explaining it as a state of balance in the market with no immediate pressure to move up or down.
  • πŸ“ˆ The Fear and Greed index is mentioned as rebounding from 26 to 48, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
  • πŸ—žοΈ Historically, Bitcoin was added to the Oxford English Dictionary 11 years ago, with a basic definition that aligns with its foundational principles.
  • πŸ“Š NASDAQ is seeking SEC approval for Bitcoin index options, which could enhance liquidity and provide new hedging tools for traders, attracting more institutional and retail investors.
  • πŸ’° The speaker questions the transparency of ETFs, particularly why they do not disclose Bitcoin wallet addresses, which could verify holdings and build trust.
  • πŸ“‰ Despite significant investments by Black Rock into Bitcoin, the market price has not risen, leading to discussions about market manipulation and the need for transparency.
  • πŸ“Š The script discusses various charts and metrics indicating a current state of equilibrium in the Bitcoin market, with low volatility and a lack of significant price action.
  • πŸ’‘ The idea that elections may influence Bitcoin's price is explored, suggesting potential rises post-election based on historical patterns.
  • πŸ“‰ The script mentions the decline in Bitcoin's network hash rate, which could be a positive sign for miners as it may indicate less competition and potentially higher profits.
  • πŸ’Έ There is a significant amount of Bitcoin being removed from exchanges, raising questions about who is accumulating these assets and the potential impact on market liquidity and price.

Q & A

  • What is the significance of the term 'equilibrium' in the context of the video?

    -In the video, 'equilibrium' refers to a state in the market where there is no immediate pressure for prices to go up or down, indicating a balance. The speaker uses this term to describe the current state of the Bitcoin market, which appears stable but with underlying dynamics at play.

  • Why did the speaker decide to call the video 'equilibrium' instead of 'manipulation'?

    -The speaker chose the title 'equilibrium' over 'manipulation' because they do not create clickbait titles. 'Equilibrium' better reflects the state of balance and lack of immediate pressure in the market that they wish to discuss.

  • What is the historical milestone mentioned in the video about Bitcoin?

    -The historical milestone mentioned is that Bitcoin was added to the Oxford English Dictionary exactly 11 years ago from the date of the video, with the definition being 'a system of electronic money without the need for a central bank.'

  • What is the importance of Bitcoin options being sought by NASDAQ?

    -Bitcoin options, if approved by the SEC, would enhance liquidity and provide new hedging tools for traders. This move is expected to attract more institutional and retail investors by offering sophisticated risk management tools, thus aiding the maturation of the digital asset market.

  • Why does the speaker express concern about the lack of transparency in ETF addresses?

    -The speaker is concerned because the disclosure of Bitcoin wallet addresses by ETF providers would enhance transparency and trust. It would allow investors and the public to verify holdings on the blockchain, mitigating concerns about fraud and rehypothecation.

  • What is the significance of MicroStrategy being added to the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index?

    -MicroStrategy being added to the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index is significant because it is the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. This could coincide with the company's potential addition to the S&P 500, indicating a substantial recognition and influence of MicroStrategy in the market.

  • What does the speaker mean by the 'Bitcoin Flatline'?

    -The 'Bitcoin Flatline' refers to a period of low volatility, excitement, and price action in the Bitcoin market. The speaker uses this term to describe the current state of equilibrium where the market is neither showing significant bullish nor bearish trends.

  • Why does the speaker believe that the realized cap to market cap ratio is important?

    -The realized cap to market cap ratio is important because it provides insight into the market's profitability and the value of Bitcoin changing hands at higher prices. A high realized cap indicates that a lot of new hands are involved, and Bitcoin is being traded at higher price points.

  • What does the speaker suggest about the current state of Bitcoin ETFs and their impact on the market?

    -The speaker suggests that despite significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin remains stagnant, which is unusual. They question the transparency of ETFs and the impact of their activities on the market, hinting at potential manipulation or market makers' strategies.

  • What is the significance of the decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves mentioned in the video?

    -The decrease in Bitcoin exchange reserves to 5-year lows signifies that a large amount of Bitcoin is being taken off exchanges. This could indicate accumulation by long-term holders or large investors, which might suggest a belief in Bitcoin's future value and a decrease in sell pressure.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“ˆ Market Equilibrium and Bitcoin Dynamics

The speaker introduces the video, mentioning the shift from 'OCT' to 'OCTA' and emphasizing the current state of market equilibrium. They discuss the balance in the market with no immediate pressure for price changes, and hint at underlying dynamics to explore. The speaker also addresses the audience, thanks the moderators, and clarifies that the content is not financial advice. They highlight the importance of transparency in ETFs, particularly in sharing Bitcoin wallet addresses, to build trust and align with Bitcoin's ethos. The segment ends with a commentary on a tweet about BlackRock's investment in Bitcoin and the apparent lack of price increase, questioning the transparency and potential manipulation in the market.

05:01

πŸ“Š Analyzing Bitcoin Market Indicators

This paragraph delves into various Bitcoin market indicators, starting with the fear and greed index's rebound, signifying a shift in market sentiment. The speaker commemorates the 11-year anniversary of Bitcoin's inclusion in the Oxford English Dictionary and discusses the significance of NASDAQ's pursuit of SEC approval for Bitcoin index options, which could enhance liquidity and provide new hedging tools. They also express frustration over the lack of transparency in ETFs, advocating for the disclosure of Bitcoin addresses to verify holdings on the blockchain and prevent fraud. The speaker speculates on the source of Bitcoin for large investments like BlackRock's and the implications of such large transactions on market dynamics.

10:04

πŸ’‘ Spotlight on MicroStrategy and Market Equilibrium

The speaker shares news about MicroStrategy's potential inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index, highlighting its status as the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder. They discuss the implications of this event for MicroStrategy and the broader market, suggesting it could coincide with the company's potential addition to the S&P 500. The paragraph also covers the concept of market equilibrium, using charts to illustrate Bitcoin's current position in its pricing cycle, and discusses indicators such as net capital flows, realized cap, and investor probability resetting to equilibrium, suggesting a period of stability or indecision in the market.

15:05

πŸ“‰ Bitcoin's Price Action and ETF Inflows

The speaker examines the discrepancy between substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the lack of a corresponding increase in Bitcoin's price. They explore various charts and data points, such as the Bitcoin relative strength index, long-term holder SOA, and the hash rate, to understand the current market state. The speaker also discusses the potential impact of the upcoming election on Bitcoin's price, referencing historical patterns that suggest a possible rise in value after the election period. Additionally, they touch on the low levels of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges and the significant amount of Bitcoin being removed from these platforms, hinting at a potential accumulation by large holders.

20:07

🌐 ETF Transparency and Bitcoin's Future Outlook

In the final paragraph, the speaker reiterates the call for transparency in ETFs, urging them to disclose their Bitcoin addresses. They analyze the recent trend of Bitcoin being taken off exchanges and question the source of such large volumes. The speaker also presents various predictions and targets for Bitcoin's price, suggesting that despite current stagnation, there may be potential for significant growth. They end the video with a summary of recent ETF flows and their impact on the market, expressing curiosity about the future price movement of Bitcoin.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Equilibrium

Equilibrium in the context of the video refers to a state of balance in the market where there is no immediate pressure for prices to go up or down. It is a key concept because the video discusses the current state of the Bitcoin market, suggesting that despite significant capital flows and other dynamics, the market is in a state of equilibrium, not showing drastic movements. The term is used to describe the overall market sentiment and price stability.

πŸ’‘Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a measure of market sentiment that indicates the level of fear or greed among investors in the market. In the video, it is mentioned that the index has rebounded, suggesting that the sentiment is shifting from fear to a more positive outlook. The index is important as it reflects the collective emotions driving market behavior, with a rise from 26 to 48 indicating a significant change in investor sentiment.

πŸ’‘Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds that track the price of Bitcoin and are traded on stock exchanges. The video discusses the significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which is an indicator of growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. The mention of BlackRock investing heavily in Bitcoin through ETFs exemplifies this trend and raises questions about transparency and the impact on market prices.

πŸ’‘Transparency

Transparency in the video is discussed in the context of ETFs disclosing their Bitcoin wallet addresses. The speaker advocates for transparency to enhance trust and allow verification of holdings on the blockchain. It is a central theme as it relates to the integrity of the market and the need for openness in financial dealings, especially in the cryptocurrency space.

πŸ’‘Liquidity

Liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold in the market without affecting their price. The video mentions that the introduction of Bitcoin index options on NASDAQ will enhance liquidity, which is crucial for the market's health. Improved liquidity can attract more investors and facilitate smoother trading, which is beneficial for market participants.

πŸ’‘Hedging

Hedging is a risk management strategy used to protect against potential losses in an investment. In the context of the video, the introduction of Bitcoin index options is seen as providing new hedging tools for traders. This is significant as it allows for more sophisticated risk management, which can be particularly useful in volatile markets like cryptocurrency.

πŸ’‘MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy is a company known for its significant investment in Bitcoin. The video mentions that it is likely to be added to the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index, which is a notable event as it signifies further mainstream acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial markets. The addition could potentially influence the company's and Bitcoin's market perception and value.

πŸ’‘Hash Rate

The hash rate in Bitcoin mining refers to the computing power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin network and processing transactions. A fluctuating hash rate, as mentioned in the video, can impact the difficulty of mining new blocks and the profitability for miners. The video notes a slight decrease in the hash rate, which could temporarily benefit miners by reducing competition.

πŸ’‘Realized Cap

The realized cap is a metric that represents the total value of all mined Bitcoin at the time of their last movement. It is highlighted in the video as being at an all-time high, indicating a significant amount of Bitcoin changing hands at higher prices. This metric is important as it reflects the market's activity and the value realization of Bitcoin holdings.

πŸ’‘Volatility

Volatility in the video refers to the degree of price fluctuation in the market. The speaker anticipates that the current period of low activity and reduced speculative interest could precede a period of increased volatility, often referred to as 'the calm before the storm.' This concept is integral to understanding market dynamics and potential future price movements.

πŸ’‘Long-term Holders

Long-term holders in the context of the video are individuals or entities that hold Bitcoin for an extended period, typically over 155 days. The video discusses a significant transition of supply to long-term holder status, indicating a belief in Bitcoin's long-term value. This shift can impact market dynamics as it suggests a decrease in selling pressure and potential for price stability or growth.

Highlights

Introduction to the concept of market equilibrium and its relevance to current Bitcoin dynamics.

Acknowledgment of community support and Patreon contributions, including a welcome to new member Leroy Jenkins.

Bitcoin's Fear and Greed index rebounding from 26 to 48, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

Historical milestone: Bitcoin was added to the Oxford English Dictionary 11 years ago.

Announcement of NASDAQ seeking SEC approval for Bitcoin index options, potentially enhancing liquidity and providing new hedging tools.

Discussion on the importance of ETF transparency and the call for Bitcoin wallet addresses to be published for verification.

MicroStrategy likely to be added to the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index, highlighting its status as a major Bitcoin holder.

Analysis of current Bitcoin market trends, including the shift of supply to long-term holder status and reduced leverage in the perpetual swap market.

Realized cap hitting an all-time high of $619 billion, driven by significant net inflow since the December 2017 low.

Investor sentiment resetting to an equilibrium, suggesting a cooldown after the ETF launch excitement.

Low volatility and lack of price action, described as the 'Bitcoin Flatline', indicating a period of stability.

Decreasing market leverage and traders' reduced appetite for higher risk positions, suggesting a significant reset in speculative interest.

Long-term holder SOA signaling equilibrium, with decreased selling pressure from long-term holders.

Highest inflow in over a month for Bitcoin ETFs, with significant capital inflows despite price stagnation.

Global network hash rate fluctuations and their impact on miner profitability.

Historical patterns suggesting potential post-election Bitcoin price increases.

Analysis of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges hitting 5-year lows and the implications for market liquidity.

Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings and the recent slowdown in outflows, indicating a potential end to the selling pressure.

Closing remarks encouraging viewers to engage with the content and seek further understanding of the current Bitcoin market situation.

Transcripts

play00:08

hello everybody Welcome to today's story

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today is Tuesday it's normally OCT today

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OCT has become really big so I'm going

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to do OCTA tomorrow so stay tight for

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that but this is something that I do

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want to talk about and I was going to

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call this video manipulation but I don't

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do clickbait titles so clickbait titles

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so I resorted calling it equilibrium

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because that's a lot of kind of what I

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see right now but uh when markets are in

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equilibrium it shows a state of balance

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no immediate pressure to go up or down

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but we'll look at some of the Dynamics

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that are happening behind the scenes as

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well as some stuff we need to dig into

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so let's go thank you as well to the

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moderators in the chat and this is not

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Financial advice and my microphone is

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too low hopefully it's better now okay

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and of course to

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patreon thank you all thank you Leroy

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Jenkins just joined the patreon party

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thank you Leroy for being part of the

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team let's go and welcome to what people

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not call the best Bitcoin Show on Earth

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let's get into the bitcoin news first

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some very good breaking news first of

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all fear and greed is rebounding a

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little bit it went down to 26 now it's

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at

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48 we're making it happen thank you

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Linda and Nick Linda and USA and Nick in

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Canada I love seeing people from all

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over the world but there's more a lot

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more 11 years ago this is a fun piece of

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history from Rizzo exactly 11 years ago

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today Bitcoin was added to the Oxford

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English Dictionary and the definition

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was a system of electronic money without

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the need for a central

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bank pretty crude definition but it

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works it works for me and uh well done

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it's amazing to think that it was around

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for 14 years over 14 years and it took

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over three years before the term Bitcoin

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got added to the dictionary

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so like everything in life sometimes

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things are a little bit slow also other

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great news for us Bitcoin options are

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incoming NASDAQ seeks SEC approval for

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Bitcoin index options now why is this

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important well these options of course

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they probably be based on CME uh

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realtime index but providing realtime

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pricing data for Bitcoin Futures and

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options contracts on the C platform will

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help Bitcoin because the introduction of

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Bitcoin index options will enhance

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liquidity and provide new hedging tools

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for Traders like myself and uh this move

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is expected to attract more

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institutional and Retail investors by

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offering sophisticated risk management

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tools yes thereby helping the maturation

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of the digital asset and again the more

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risk management tools are in there the

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more money it attracts and it also help

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transform how investors engage with the

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cryptocurrency market market and uh

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especially for us who play with more

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let's say nuanced option strategy so

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this is extremely good news as well

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especially if it comes to hedging things

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like bare markets very exciting I just

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hope they can get it out soon unless I

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wait but there are other ways to hedge

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too so don't worry too much about that

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now yesterday last night I did tweet

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this and I normally don't look at tweets

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after done but that one nearly has a

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quarter of a million views in a few

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hours and uh I said kind of big news

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Black Rock dropped nearly a quarter of a

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billion dollars on bitcoin yet prices

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are down is the game rigged crypto

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conspiracy Bitcoin Finance

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Etc what the hell is going on we had two

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very big ETF days in a row to the tune

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of nearly half a billion dollars and the

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price is

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down and when I see that happening it's

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like you know we know a lot of the big

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flushes happen and the big sellers have

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happened and we look at Bitcoin

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disappearing off

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exchanges how come the price is down and

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I know my audience feel the same pain

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everybody's like what's going on here

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should we be

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suspicious well it goes back to the same

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old thoughts I've had before and you

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know we have the technology I have no

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idea I'm gonna say some pretty strong

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words here no idea why

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ETF addresses are not shared by these

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ETFs bitwise the only one that does it

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properly and Publishing Bitcoin

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addresses is crucial to enhance

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transparency and Trust in this space if

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they disclose their Bitcoin wallet

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addresses ETF providers will allow

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investors and the public to verify

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Holdings on the blockchain and this

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transparency will really help us kind of

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align the whole ethos of what Bitcoin is

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like I don't know why the SEC when they

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approved them in the first place didn't

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mandate this okay we need openness we

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need tracability and it'll Mi mitigate a

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lot of the concerns about fraud and

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rehypothecation and all that good stuff

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too bitwise shout out to bitwise born in

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crypto born in blockchain is the only

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ETF provider known to have disclosed

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their addresses and by the way I think

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you know I think people need to come

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together and exert some pressure on

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these other ETF players to also have

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that same level of

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transparency I I don't know why not and

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I will say this as well if you are

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considering buying an ETF buy bitwise

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okay buy bitwise hopefully if everybody

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did that that would force the hand of

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the other players too so anyway just

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thinking out loud but you know Black

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Rock spent half a billion dollars on

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Bitcoin in two days

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what do they buy where is it where do

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they get it from I mean why is there so

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much Cloak and Dagger stuff I don't

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understand these are just alleged ideas

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in my small little mind I could be

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completely off Bas

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and I should not verify I should just

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trust make sense no it doesn't so anyway

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moving on uh another good news too sorry

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about that sorry about going a little

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bit long on that but I mean why are

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these addess is not published anyway

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back to others micro strategy is likely

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going to be added this from Jeff be

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added to the NASDAQ 100 QQQ index on

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December 13th 2024 lucky 13th we hope

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and by the way this is the largest

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publicly traded Bitcoin hodler as we

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know and it could be added to the fifth

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largest index ETF in the world and

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remember the QQQ is only 100 names

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that's how big micro strategy is now and

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I know this could coincide with the

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stuff I've been talking about for quite

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a while too addition to the S&P 500 I

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mean it's ranked number 300 now so why

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it's not even there well I do know it's

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accounting rules regulations Conformity

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waiting for the S&P 500 to make a

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decision and having four consecutive

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quarters of profit which could happen if

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they change the accounting rules anyway

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that's the news let's see if this

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happens that would be Bonkers for micr

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strategy into the end of the year let's

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get into some charts and this is where

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I'm going to talk a lot about

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equilibrium and where we are right now

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first of all let's check in on our

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Matrix this is kind of like my little

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90-day box that I put together post

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having to identify floor roof resistance

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and see where we are today and it'll

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give us a little bit of perspective by

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the way we are exactly 40 days after the

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90 days or 130 days after the having we

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are about $4,000 off the floor but sadly

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we're $10,000 off the high so we're like

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like in the bottom third of the box

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right now and it's choppy and it's

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sideways and we had a little bit of a

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rebound a few hours ago we at 64,000

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nearly

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$65,000 but we fell out of bed again

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despite a lot of money going into the

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ETF which we'll talk about in a few

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minutes crazy let's dig into exactly

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what is causing this and what's going on

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first of all the net capital flows into

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Bitcoin have slowed this is net capital

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so this should take into account

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everything the ETFs Etc but with only a

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minimal profit and loss taking the

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primary uh primarily among short-term

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holders there is a huge portion of the

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supply that's transitioning right now to

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long-term holder status that's the 155

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days plus and speculative interest in

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the Perpetual swap Market is also cooled

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indicating reduced leverage and

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historically such periods of low

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activity often precede increased

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volatility I call it the cam before the

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storm we'll see if that happens but

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despite the Slowdown the realized cap

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remains at an all-time high of $619

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billion driven by a $217 billion net

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inflow since the December 20122 low a

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lot of new hands a lot of Bitcoin

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changing hands at higher prices that's

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why this realized cap has gone up a lot

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especially when you Benchmark it against

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actually I need to create a new ratio

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and that is a ratio of realized cap to

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market cap and create that as a cool

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little chart that's a good idea let me

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work on that later today also investor

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probability has reset to an equilibrium

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this suggests that the profitability has

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essentially reset to that equilibrium

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position and that the excitement and the

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exuberance after the ETF launch has

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cooled off completely again yet another

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sign that we are I made a tweet last

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week I called it beep but kind of the

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Bitcoin Flatline that's where we are

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equilibrium Flatline lack of volatility

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lack of excitement lack of

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enthusiasm lack of price action how long

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can this last I don't know and spending

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is now happening at cost basis shout out

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to the Glau team who puts these

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brilliant charts together but low values

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indicate most most coins are being spent

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relatively close to their Break Even

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cost basis so people jump into Bitcoin

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and say you know what ah hasn't done

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anything I'm going to sell at the same

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price I paid for it and move on to

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something else and this condition often

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signifies an exhaustion of profit and

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loss within the current price range and

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usually describes low volatility

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environment thank you so much Yuna for

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coming so again more D equilibrium also

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Market Leverage

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and people always I don't know how to

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say leverage leverage I don't know which

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is right who cares um let me know in the

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comments below if you can help me

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pronounce it correctly but we can also

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look into the ratio between the price

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and net liquidation volume volatility

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for a relative read on the Market's

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appetite for leverage and while we find

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that this ratio is declining towards

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levels not seen since February

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20122 as indicated by that dotted line

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on the chart here this means Traders are

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less willing to take on higher risk

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positions suggesting there's been a

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significant reset in speculative

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interest so yet another equilibrium boom

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this good news about this though when

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this happens it means the spot Market is

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in control that means those people

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buying spot are now back in the power

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seat if they step into the market of

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course we'll see and shout out to plan

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B he also says we are in equilibrium but

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from a different perspective he looks at

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the Bitcoin relative strength index and

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you can see here we are in a very

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similar pattern to previous Cycles

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except after some dark red dots we

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normally go parabolic that hasn't

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happened yet remember markets move in

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Cycles you know Bull and Bear Market

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we're in a bull market greed and fear

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you know we're kind of middle of the

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road almost equilibrium like on fear and

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greed just like the low and high tide

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and this is I think Plan B refers to

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this as human behavior that will never

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change and right now we are stuck in the

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middle again equilibrium between greed

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and fear and we just had fear bear so

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greed bull is next per plan B and uh

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we'll see this is the relative strength

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index bang in the middle that has to go

play12:49

higher and if it doesn't this time is

play12:52

very different which would be unusual

play12:55

anyway long-term holder SOA as well uh

play12:58

also

play13:00

it signals an equilibrium the selling

play13:02

pressure from long-term holders has

play13:03

decreased 3.7 times from the 69k level a

play13:08

reminder selling anything below that

play13:11

1.0 Mark is selling at a loss and again

play13:15

it shows you people aren't selling a

play13:17

loss and not a lot of selling happening

play13:19

too at this stage now while all of this

play13:22

is happening sorry about all these

play13:24

unchain charts but they tell a very

play13:26

interesting story we have the highest

play13:28

infl flow in over 1 month Bitcoin ETF

play13:31

sold a 252 million flow on Friday and

play13:36

another 200 plus yesterday that's the

play13:39

highest over a month back to back okay

play13:42

huge inflows nearly half a billion

play13:44

dollars and this comes after Fed chair

play13:46

pile gave the green light for the first

play13:47

cut in four and a half years meanwhile

play13:50

Bitcoin prices are down we did hit 64

play13:54

65k a few hours ago but again crypto is

play13:58

down

play13:59

despite all that good news what's going

play14:03

on I don't know we'll see we'll get to

play14:05

the ETF black hole in a minute but

play14:07

before we do this is the hash rate now

play14:10

bitcoin price action in Bitcoin and hash

play14:13

price the global Network hash rate has

play14:16

oscillated between 633 xash and 650 x

play14:20

aash throughout the week and the 7day

play14:23

simple moving average is about 5% below

play14:26

its all-time high of 680

play14:29

recorded on July 26th so we're down a

play14:32

little bit which is good

play14:33

too now so the miners can make a little

play14:37

bit of Bank the higher the hash the more

play14:40

the miners have to struggle and the less

play14:42

money they make anywh who let's get into

play14:44

some fun charts to get us all a little

play14:46

bit excited it's election time all over

play14:49

the planet but this is from VC he says

play14:53

every single time Bitcoin after the

play14:56

election runs up

play14:59

now it's funny because you look at these

play15:01

previous Cycles 2016 2017 which many say

play15:04

is most similar to the current White

play15:06

cycle on the chart here if that happens

play15:09

we're not going to see a parabolic rise

play15:12

after the election until about 20 weeks

play15:16

to 24 weeks later call that 5 to 6

play15:19

months that would take us maybe

play15:22

to March April May time frame but if we

play15:25

look at the 2020 2021 cycle in green

play15:30

which may have some similar instances

play15:32

because of money Printing and the amount

play15:34

of money printing is going to happen it

play15:36

could kick in in November and go nuts

play15:39

absolutely nuts up until March the

play15:43

question is which framework will we look

play15:45

at how will it pan out I'm not sure

play15:49

either way I think there's about 80 days

play15:51

left to the election maybe less 75 days

play15:54

and then we put our seat belts on what's

play15:57

going to happen between now then I'm not

play15:58

sure sure but basically if you ask me I

play16:01

think Bitcoin is a little bit

play16:02

undervalued right now also from AO Oran

play16:08

Ohio this is per him the most beautiful

play16:12

and Powerful part of bitcoin's Bull Run

play16:15

and it begins now to Target the big

play16:19

swing time and this target if history

play16:22

repats per these

play16:25

circles we could go to 400,000 I don't

play16:28

see is going to 400,000 especially not

play16:31

with this level of manipulation but we

play16:33

can always dream can't we I still remain

play16:35

if we're lucky 120k and then beyond that

play16:39

is gravy but again I like to sandbag

play16:41

stuff a lot let's talk about

play16:43

exchanges and how much is left because

play16:46

the stuff is being sucked up where is it

play16:49

coming from that's why I want

play16:50

transparency with the ETFs uh per

play16:52

Bitcoin Monger exchange reserves hit

play16:54

5year lows okay that was a couple of

play16:58

days ago

play16:59

guess what just happened yeah someone

play17:01

just pulled another 46,000 Bitcoin off

play17:04

exchanges and there today so the

play17:07

question is who is pulling it off the

play17:10

exchanges could it be maybe somebody

play17:12

like Michael sailor or somebody else

play17:15

like that I'm not sure but this is big

play17:18

let's check in with Marty Marty did

play17:19

share this list of the continuing

play17:23

coverage of Bitcoin reserves some people

play17:26

call them ultra low coinbase is is now

play17:29

under

play17:30

1,840

play17:31

actually is a little bit hard to see but

play17:34

binance is down 441 44 sorry 44,000

play17:38

Bitcoin I think and they had to move

play17:40

30,000 from their personal coal storage

play17:42

to support exchange liquidity something

play17:45

is happening and something has been

play17:47

recently triggered I'm going to blow up

play17:49

that table with the exact numbers so you

play17:51

can see for yourselves and the question

play17:53

is where is everything going there's

play17:55

coinbase Pro 840,000 binance 564 bitf

play17:59

402 and then Kraken 134 Etc the point is

play18:03

the top three pretty much hold

play18:05

everything and that adds up to about 2.3

play18:09

million now I just do want to emphasize

play18:12

something here even though those 2.3

play18:15

million exchanges some of this could be

play18:17

held in custody on behalf of clients and

play18:20

there could be people like you and I

play18:21

that maybe have a bigcoin on an

play18:23

exchange not good advice by the way but

play18:26

if you did odds or you don't want to

play18:29

sell it either so it doesn't mean if

play18:31

it's on an exchange or there's stuff

play18:33

there on the exchanges that it's

play18:35

available for sale because odds are the

play18:37

majority of it is not the question is

play18:40

where is all the stuff coming from and

play18:42

just as a reminder as well Michael

play18:44

sailor is going to drop $2 billion in

play18:47

Bitcoin that's 33,000 and we have about

play18:49

7,000 was bought by the

play18:52

ETFs 7,000 in the last 7 Days 7,000 plus

play19:00

33,000 is how much 40,000 Bitcoin that's

play19:04

a lot where's that going to come from

play19:06

you know we did see 6 46,000 Bitcoin

play19:10

just leave the exchanges I don't know if

play19:12

there's a relationship between those two

play19:14

I don't think so anyway we got to watch

play19:16

this carefully and again ETFs be

play19:19

transparent share your bloody

play19:22

addresses shout out to bitwise one more

play19:24

time now Bitcoin on playist will be here

play19:27

after the video end at the end of the

play19:29

video let's get into the black hole and

play19:31

see if we see any patterns here this is

play19:33

the wrong I said 7,000 last week it's

play19:36

8,000 Bitcoin I Was Wrong by nearly a

play19:40

thousand whoops

play19:42

anyway that is a big truckload of

play19:44

Bitcoin that has been sucked in by the

play19:49

ETFs over the last seven days ladies and

play19:52

Gentlemen let's look at the number flows

play19:56

sleepy August has sucked in

play19:59

$600 Million worth so it hasn't been

play20:02

that bad at all for the ETFs yet price

play20:06

remains

play20:08

stagnant that's happening now August

play20:11

rebound is continuing we had the biggest

play20:13

day in over a month actually back toback

play20:15

big days too over a quarter of a billion

play20:18

on Friday another 203 million yesterday

play20:22

nice numbers but price still sucks

play20:27

tomorrow I will update my chart that

play20:29

shows you the actual price correlation

play20:31

and calculate between the actual ETF

play20:33

flows and bitcoin price because it is

play20:34

broken down and I don't know why unless

play20:38

they're sitting on cash and waiting for

play20:39

the price to complete the tank or market

play20:42

makers are manipulating something I'm

play20:43

not sure but something funky is going on

play20:46

and I don't know why also this is how

play20:48

many Bitcoin were taken from the system

play20:49

yesterday

play20:50

3,222 you cannot make that number up and

play20:53

that's on top of 4,000 from the day

play20:56

before again interest in time nearly

play20:59

eight times the daily

play21:01

issuance crazy to think about and

play21:05

wouldn't be a proper Bitcoin video

play21:06

without a mention of grayscale have they

play21:08

bled out well per this little chart that

play21:11

we

play21:12

created the bleed has surely slowed a

play21:16

lot they had the odd big day they had

play21:18

that really big day uh about two weeks

play21:20

ago but since then it's either flat or

play21:23

zero or slightly positive so a lot of

play21:26

the big dump that came from the Great

play21:28

scale train I believe is now over thank

play21:32

goodness fingers crossed just in case

play21:35

hope you all like the show hit the like

play21:36

And subscribe if you do if you like

play21:39

Bitcoin content let's try to get to the

play21:40

bottom of what's exactly going on with

play21:42

the price and the ETFs and everybody

play21:44

else thank you TD Tesla sh and Donell

play21:45

and everybody else for coming have a

play21:47

good day bye-bye

play21:55

[Music]

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Related Tags
Bitcoin AnalysisETF ImpactMarket EquilibriumCryptocurrency TrendsInvestor BehaviorBitcoin ETFsPrice VolatilityHash RateTransparency ConcernsFinancial Markets