Das russische Momentum ist zurück

Österreichs Bundesheer

29 May 202425:53

Summary

TLDRColonel Markus Reisner, head of the Institute 1 for Officer Basic Training at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt, provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on day 820. He discusses the second Russian winter offensive, highlighting Russia's efforts to attack along the entire 1200 km front line and Ukraine's attempts to defend and regain momentum. The presentation covers strategic, operational, and tactical levels, detailing the destruction of critical infrastructure, the use of various weapons systems, and the challenges Ukraine faces in resource management and adapting to Russian advancements. Reisner emphasizes the ongoing attrition war, where resources are the primary focus, and the need for Ukraine's allies to provide substantial support to counter Russia's military capabilities.

Takeaways

🇷🇺 Russia is attempting to regain momentum in the ongoing conflict, with a focus on strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
🏰 The second Russian winter offensive has been characterized by widespread attacks along the 1200 km front line, with Ukraine striving to hold and defend.
🔫 Ukraine has managed to regain some momentum in the Black Sea through the use of unmanned underwater and surface vehicles to attack parts of the Russian fleet.
💥 Russia's strategic goal has been to further destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure, with an estimated 60% already destroyed as of the first strategic air campaign.
🔄 Russia is believed to be producing between 115 to 130 missiles per month to maintain its attacks, indicating a constant production rate.
🛡 The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense has decreased, with a drop in the interception rate of both Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
🌐 Russia aims to force Ukraine to use its valuable reserves along the entire front, especially in the Donbass, to prevent a potential Ukrainian offensive in the future.
🤖 There is an increasing use of autonomous systems in the conflict, with examples of unmanned Russian ground systems attempting to explore Ukrainian strongholds.
📉 The war is characterized as a war of attrition, focusing on the consumption of resources rather than territorial gains, with a significant disparity in artillery ammunition usage.
🛑 The Russian economy has transitioned to a wartime economy, allocating between 7% to 8% of its GDP to the production of weapon systems, while Europe and the USA are not ready to transition to a wartime economy.
⚔️ The conflict is reaching a critical point where Ukraine needs to generate resources to counter the Russian aggression or the West must recognize the need to provide these resources to Ukraine.

Highlights

Oberst Markus Reisner provides an update on the Ukraine conflict on day 820, noting a shift in momentum towards Russian forces.

Russia's second winter offensive has been more active than it appears, with attempts to attack along the entire 1200 km front line.

Ukraine has managed to regain some momentum in the Black Sea using unmanned underwater vehicles to attack parts of the Russian fleet.

A video example is shown of a Russian regiment's attack near Kupyansk, illustrating the mix of Ukrainian defense systems.

On the strategic level, Russia aims to further destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure, having already destroyed approximately 60%.

Russia's production rate of missiles is estimated to be between 115 and 130 per month to sustain attacks.

Ukrainian air defense shoot-down rates have decreased, with only 30% of missiles and ballistic missiles being intercepted.

Operationally, Russia's goal is to force Ukraine to use its valuable reserves to prevent a future offensive.

Russia is improving its situational awareness behind Ukrainian lines, targeting and destroying high-value Ukrainian weapons systems.

Tactical level analysis shows Russia using a range of weapon systems, including Lancet drones and guided bombs, effectively.

Russia's use of GLONASS-guided bombs has devastating effects on Ukrainian strongholds.

The conflict is characterized as a war of attrition, focused on consuming resources rather than territorial gains.

Russia is adapting and improving its weapon systems effectively against Western-supplied Ukrainian systems.

The effectiveness of precision bombs supplied to Ukraine has decreased due to Russian GPS jamming.

Russian economic adaptation to a war economy is contrasted with Europe and the USA's reluctance to do the same.

Russian forces have increased significantly, with approximately 510,000 soldiers and substantial equipment.

Examples of fiercely contested battles in locations like Avdiivka and Chasiv Jar are discussed.

A new situation in the north indicates a potential Russian summer offensive with a new force grouping called 'Sever'.

The war is becoming increasingly autonomous, with unmanned systems fighting each other.

The West's support for Ukraine is questioned, with the US stating it does not support attacks on Russian refineries.

The role of nuclear weapons is highlighted, with Russia conducting atomic weapon exercises to demonstrate its capabilities.

The importance of allies and supporters is examined, with Russia receiving significant support from countries like China and Iran.

Ukraine's desperate need for resources such as aircraft, tanks, ammunition, and air defense systems is emphasized.

The discussion concludes with the necessity for Ukraine to generate resources or the West to provide them to counter the Russian aggression.