Das russische Momentum ist zurück

Summary

Colonel Markus Reisner, head of the Institute 1 for Officer Basic Training at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt, provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on day 820. He discusses the second Russian winter offensive, highlighting Russia's efforts to attack along the entire 1200 km front line and Ukraine's attempts to defend and regain momentum. The presentation covers strategic, operational, and tactical levels, detailing the destruction of critical infrastructure, the use of various weapons systems, and the challenges Ukraine faces in resource management and adapting to Russian advancements. Reisner emphasizes the ongoing attrition war, where resources are the primary focus, and the need for Ukraine's allies to provide substantial support to counter Russia's military capabilities.

Takeaways

• 🇷🇺 Russia is attempting to regain momentum in the ongoing conflict, with a focus on strategic, operational, and tactical levels.
• 🏰 The second Russian winter offensive has been characterized by widespread attacks along the 1200 km front line, with Ukraine striving to hold and defend.
• 🔫 Ukraine has managed to regain some momentum in the Black Sea through the use of unmanned underwater and surface vehicles to attack parts of the Russian fleet.
• 💥 Russia's strategic goal has been to further destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure, with an estimated 60% already destroyed as of the first strategic air campaign.
• 🔄 Russia is believed to be producing between 115 to 130 missiles per month to maintain its attacks, indicating a constant production rate.
• 🛡 The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense has decreased, with a drop in the interception rate of both Iranian drones and ballistic missiles.
• 🌐 Russia aims to force Ukraine to use its valuable reserves along the entire front, especially in the Donbass, to prevent a potential Ukrainian offensive in the future.
• 🤖 There is an increasing use of autonomous systems in the conflict, with examples of unmanned Russian ground systems attempting to explore Ukrainian strongholds.
• 📉 The war is characterized as a war of attrition, focusing on the consumption of resources rather than territorial gains, with a significant disparity in artillery ammunition usage.
• 🛑 The Russian economy has transitioned to a wartime economy, allocating between 7% to 8% of its GDP to the production of weapon systems, while Europe and the USA are not ready to transition to a wartime economy.
• ⚔️ The conflict is reaching a critical point where Ukraine needs to generate resources to counter the Russian aggression or the West must recognize the need to provide these resources to Ukraine.