2016년에 엔비디아를 발견한 사람

Summary

In this conversation, a speaker explains the concept of quantitative investing, or 'quant investing', highlighting its objective, repeatable, and data-driven approach to investment decisions. By analyzing metrics like PER, PBR, and growth rates, quant investing helps investors identify profitable opportunities with models that can be tested for success. The speaker contrasts it with qualitative investing, emphasizing the complementary benefits of both methods. The discussion touches on the challenges of data analysis and how combining these approaches can enhance risk management and investment strategy, including real-life examples like the speaker’s recommendation of Nvidia stocks.

Takeaways

• 😀 Quant investing uses data-driven decision-making, focusing on metrics like PER and PBR to guide investment strategies.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes the advantage of quant investing: it allows for objective, repeatable, and scalable strategies.
• 😀 A key component of quant investing is researching historical data to identify patterns and predict potential future performance.
• 😀 Quant models often combine multiple factors (such as growth rate and stability) to create a more comprehensive evaluation of a stock.
• 😀 While traditional investing relies heavily on qualitative factors like the CEO's traits or company reputation, quant investing seeks to be more data-driven and objective.
• 😀 The speaker mentions that the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis can offer a well-rounded investment approach.
• 😀 One potential downside of quant investing is that it can sometimes fail to predict future trends if it relies too heavily on past data.
• 😀 To improve quant models, backtesting is crucial to validate whether a strategy would have worked in the past, helping ensure its reliability.
• 😀 Quant investing can be complex and challenging for the average person, but even regular investors often use basic metrics like PER or PBR in their decision-making.
• 😀 The speaker shares an example of how their quant model recommended investing in NVIDIA back in 2016, showing how quantitative factors outweighed traditional valuation metrics.
• 😀 A balanced approach that combines quantitative and qualitative elements can reduce risk and help manage potential losses in volatile markets.

Q & A

What is the speaker's background in the field of quantitative investment?

The speaker has been working for Samsung Asset Management for about 8 years, specializing in quantitative investment, particularly in collaboration with a colleague named Al Sang.

What is the key concept behind quantitative investment according to the speaker?

Quantitative investment involves using numerical data like financial statements, ratios (PER, PBR), and other indicators to make investment decisions rather than relying on subjective judgment or emotions.

How does quantitative investment differ from qualitative investment?

Quantitative investment is based on objective, data-driven analysis, whereas qualitative investment involves subjective analysis, such as assessing the CEO's personality or the company's intangible assets, like brand value.

What is the speaker's opinion on the necessity of quantitative investment?

The speaker suggests that quantitative investment isn't strictly necessary but is useful for those who do not have an in-depth understanding of individual stocks, offering a more objective and repeatable approach to investing.

What does the speaker think about the use of qualitative investment strategies?

While the speaker acknowledges the value of qualitative investment strategies, they believe that combining both qualitative and quantitative methods is more effective, as quantitative models can provide more structure and objectivity.

What is the role of 'PER' and 'PBR' in quantitative investment?

PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) and PBR (Price to Book Ratio) are key metrics used in quantitative investment to assess the financial health and valuation of a company. These ratios help investors make data-driven decisions based on historical performance and future growth potential.

How does the speaker explain the concept of PER and its calculation?

The speaker explains that PER is derived from a formula involving expected dividends, discount rates, and growth rates, reflecting a company's risk and expected future performance. A low PER indicates a potentially high-risk or low-growth stock.

What is the importance of back-testing in quantitative models?

Back-testing is crucial in quantitative investment as it helps to validate a model by testing it against historical data. If a model consistently produces positive results, it can be used for future stock screening and investment decisions.

What does the speaker mean by the 'opportunity discovery ability' in quantitative investment?

Opportunity discovery ability refers to the capability of quantitative models to identify promising investment opportunities by screening a wide range of stocks and data, which would be difficult for an investor to do manually.

What example does the speaker give to illustrate the application of quantitative investment?

The speaker gives the example of Nvidia. Despite its high PER, they used a quantitative model to identify other positive factors, such as Nvidia's software platform and market share, which led to a successful investment decision in 2016.