This crypto crash looks very familiar...

Summary

In this insightful discussion, Brian from Santiment shares his analysis on the current state of the crypto markets, focusing on Bitcoin's precarious position at the $60,000 mark. He discusses the sentiment across the market, the drivers for the recent price action, and makes predictions based on data. The conversation delves into the correlation between crypto and the S&P 500, the impact of inflation concerns and U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the market, and the influence of social media and on-chain data. Brian also explores the behavior of small traders and whales, the significance of Bitcoin ETF discussions, and the potential for traditional investors to use crypto as a hedge during economic uncertainty. The discussion concludes with a look at the overall sentiment towards Bitcoin and the importance of using data to understand market trends rather than relying on speculation.

Takeaways

• 📉 The crypto markets are experiencing a downturn with Bitcoin struggling to maintain its value above the $60,000 mark.
• 📊 There is a significant correlation between the performance of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, suggesting that traditional financial market trends are impacting crypto prices.
• 🌐 Inflation concerns in the US are affecting both the stock market and crypto markets, highlighting the influence of macroeconomic factors on digital currencies.
• 🗨️ Social media sentiment indicates a growing bearish outlook among traders, with a decline in discussions about Bitcoin reflecting a loss of confidence.
• 📈 Historical data shows that periods of high social volume and positive sentiment often precede market corrections, suggesting that current bearish sentiment could signal a future price increase.
• 🐋 Whale and shark activity, representing large Bitcoin holders, has recently shown profit-taking, which may be contributing to the current market downturn.
• 💰 The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has created a new dynamic for crypto investment, potentially leading to price movements that are less dependent on traditional market indicators.
• 🚫 Recent news about the potential non-approval of Ethereum ETFs has caused market uncertainty and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), impacting investor sentiment.
• 📊 On-chain data analysis is crucial for understanding market trends and investor behavior, providing a more accurate picture than anecdotal evidence or social media bias.
• 👥 The conversation suggests that both individual and institutional investors are closely watching market developments, with decisions influenced by a mix of sentiment analysis and macroeconomic factors.
• ⏳ The market is currently in a state of flux, with many uncertain about the mid to long-term trends, and the potential for a recovery or continued decline is a subject of ongoing debate.

Q & A

What is the current sentiment in the crypto markets according to the discussion with Brian from Santiment?

The sentiment in the crypto markets is quite bearish, with Bitcoin hanging on at the $60,000 mark and a general decline across the board. There is a sense of concern among traders and the crowd is more spooked compared to a couple of weeks prior.

What psychological support level did Bitcoin reach that many traders were watching?

Bitcoin reached the $60,000 psychological support level, which is a significant point that traders had been keeping an eye on since April 18th.

What is the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index according to the data presented in the script?

There is a significant correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index, with both experiencing dramatic drops, especially amid new inflation concerns in the US.

How does the US Federal Reserve's policy and inflationary trends impact the crypto market according to the discussion?

The US Federal Reserve's policy and inflationary trends have a substantial impact on the rest of the markets, including crypto. The way the US stock market performs has a direct influence on the direction of the crypto market.

What does the social volume data suggest about the current state of Bitcoin discussions?

The social volume data suggests that Bitcoin is being talked about less and less, indicating a potential bearish sentiment and a belief that the all-time high on March 14th might be the peak for a while.

What is the significance of the number of wallets holding more than zero coins in relation to market sentiment?

The number of wallets holding more than zero coins is an indicator of confidence in the market. A rising number suggests that people are confident and want to hold or buy more, while a flattening or declining number could signal hesitation and bearish sentiment.

How do whale and shark activity, in terms of Bitcoin holdings, correlate with market prices?

Whale and shark activity, which includes holdings of 10 to 10K BTC wallets, has a strong correlation with market prices. Prices tend to move up when these large holders accumulate and go down when they sell or dump.

What is the potential impact of ETFs on the crypto market, particularly on Bitcoin?

ETFs can introduce a new way of investing in crypto, allowing for indirect purchasing and potentially leading to an influx of new money into the market. This could change the pattern of market reliance on traditional financial indicators and possibly lead to a decoupling from the S&P and other equities.

What does the script suggest about the relationship between stablecoin holdings of whales and potential market movements?

The script suggests that an increase in stablecoin holdings by whales could be a precursor to market accumulation. If whales start collecting more tether and USD coin, it could lead to more Bitcoin accumulation and potentially a rise in market prices.

How does the script describe the typical cycle of a bull market in Bitcoin's history?

The script describes a typical bull market cycle in Bitcoin's history as starting with euphoria, followed by a dramatic drop in sentiment as prices fall, a period of flatness, and then a relief rally to bait investors back in. This cycle repeats with peaks of euphoria followed by corrections.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Crypto Market Sentiment and Analysis

The video discusses the recent downturn in the crypto markets, with a focus on Bitcoin's precarious position around the $60,000 mark. Brian from Santiment provides insights into market sentiment, price drivers, and predictions for the future. He mentions a correlation between crypto and the S&P 500, suggesting that US stock market trends have an impact on crypto prices. The conversation also touches on the potential for a rebound if the S&P recovers and the importance of considering broader economic factors when assessing the crypto market's direction.

05:02

📈 Market Sentiment and Social Volume Analysis

This paragraph delves into the sentiment and social volume of Bitcoin, highlighting a decrease in discussion over time, which may indicate a bearish sentiment. Brian discusses the correlation between social media buzz and market trends, noting that less talk about Bitcoin could signal a lack of confidence. He also addresses the impact of macroeconomic trends on the crypto market, suggesting that traditional financial market sentiments play a significant role in shaping the crypto space. The conversation hints at the possibility of a relief rally, drawing on historical patterns of market cycles.

10:03

🤔 Analyzing Market Cycles and Sentiment Shifts

The discussion continues with an analysis of Bitcoin's historical market cycles, noting periods of euphoria followed by dramatic sentiment shifts. Brian uses social volume and sentiment ratio charts to illustrate how market corrections often occur after spikes in positive sentiment. He points out the unpredictability of recent market trends and the potential for a relief rally if the market sentiment becomes extremely bearish. The importance of combining social data with on-chain metrics is emphasized to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.

15:03

🐋 Whale Behavior and its Impact on Market Trends

This paragraph examines the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, or 'whales', and their influence on market prices. It details how accumulation by whales often precedes price increases, while their selling can lead to drops. Brian presents data showing a significant accumulation of Bitcoin by whales in early 2022, followed by a substantial profit-taking period. He suggests that until whales resume accumulation, the market may continue to experience downward pressure, highlighting the importance of monitoring whale activity alongside broader market sentiment.

20:06

💡 The Role of ETFs and Traditional Market Influence

The conversation explores the impact of ETFs and traditional market instruments on the crypto market. Brian discusses the potential for an influx of traditional investors into the crypto space through ETFs, which could lead to a decoupling of crypto prices from traditional markets. He also considers the possibility of traditional traders using crypto as a hedge during turbulent stock market periods. The discussion underscores the need to monitor both on-chain and off-chain factors to understand the full scope of market influences.

25:09

📊 Current Market Trends and Future Predictions

In the final paragraph, Brian and the host reflect on the current market trends, discussing the potential for an altcoin rally towards the end of the year if Ethereum ETFs are approved. They also consider the broader economic context and how it may influence market sentiment. The importance of using data to validate or invalidate hypotheses is emphasized, as anecdotal experiences and biases can often mislead. The video concludes with a reminder of the value of ongoing analysis and the unpredictability of market reactions to news events.

Keywords

💡Crypto markets

Crypto markets refer to the financial markets where cryptocurrencies are traded. In the video, the discussion revolves around the performance of these markets, which have been experiencing a downturn. The script mentions Bitcoin hanging on by a thread at the $60,000 mark, indicating a critical point of support or resistance in the market dynamics.

💡Sentiment analysis

Sentiment analysis is the process of gauging the overall mood or tone of a group, often used in financial markets to predict market movements based on collective opinions. In the video, sentiment analysis is applied to understand the prevailing attitudes in the crypto market, with the script discussing how social data confirms that the crowd is more 'spooked' and bearish.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, often used as a benchmark for the performance of the entire crypto market. The script frequently references Bitcoin's price movements, such as it being at the $60,000 mark and its correlation with other financial indices like the S&P 500.

💡Influencers

Influencers are individuals who have the power to affect the opinions and decisions of others, often due to their social media presence or domain expertise. The video script mentions influencer types who are still advocating for the ongoing bull market in crypto, despite the current downturn.

💡Bull market

A bull market is a term used to describe a condition where securities prices are rising or are expected to rise. The script discusses the possibility of the current market being a bull market with normal retractions, suggesting that the downturn might be temporary.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, representing a diverse range of digital assets. The script refers to altcoins experiencing significant drops, indicating that the bearish sentiment is affecting not just Bitcoin but the broader crypto ecosystem.

💡ETF discussions

ETF discussions in the context of the video pertain to the debates and considerations around the approval of the first Ethereum spot ETF. The script mentions a rise in social media discussions around Ethereum due to these debates, which is an example of how regulatory news can impact market sentiment.

💡Onchain metrics

Onchain metrics are data points derived from blockchain transactions that provide insights into network activity and behavior. The video script discusses onchain metrics like social volume and wallet holdings to analyze market trends and investor behavior in the crypto space.

💡Whale activity

Whale activity refers to the actions of large-scale investors, or 'whales,' who have the ability to significantly influence market prices due to the size of their holdings. The script notes that whale accumulation and distribution can predict market movements, as they have been taking profits recently.

💡Macro markets

Macro markets are large-scale economic markets that influence the overall economic environment. The video script touches on macroeconomic trends and their impact on the crypto market, such as inflation concerns and the policies of the Federal Reserve in the US.

💡FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt)

FUD is an acronym for Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, which are emotions often spread by market participants to influence others' decisions. The script describes a 'hugely bearish um fud' narrative being created by the crowd, indicating a negative sentiment that could drive down prices.

Highlights

Bitcoin is currently hanging on at the $60,000 mark, but the crypto markets are down across the board.

There is a gradual slide down in the market, which is concerning as it doesn't feel like a flash crash that would imply a quick rebound.

Social data confirms that the crowd is more spooked this time around compared to one or two weeks ago.

Influencers are still saying that the market is in a bull trend and that the current retraction is normal.

There is a significant correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index.

Inflation concerns in the US are impacting both the US Stock Market and the crypto market.

An inverse correlation exists between the US dollar and crypto, where a stronger dollar tends to make crypto struggle.

Sentiment in the macro markets and traditional financial markets is affecting the crypto market.

Bitcoin's social volume has jumped up dramatically, indicating a rise in discussion and concern.

There is a bearish sentiment as Bitcoin is being talked about less and less over the past 30 days.

ITUS Capital is a platform for cryptocurrency individual retirement accounts (IRAs), allowing tax-free trading.

Historical data suggests that after periods of euphoria, markets typically correct, and sentiment cools down.

Bitcoin's social volume and sentiment can be measured over time to understand market trends.

The number of wallets holding Bitcoin has flattened, indicating small trader hesitation and fear.

Whales and sharks have been taking profits, with a significant drop in Bitcoin held by these large holders.

Stablecoin holdings by whales and sharks could be a precursor to further Bitcoin accumulation.

The prevalence of purchasing Bitcoin through ETFs might change the market pattern, allowing for indirect investment.

There is speculation that traditional traders might hedge their bets by putting money into crypto during tumultuous stock periods.

The current market situation is a combination of fundamental factors, on-chain data, and whale activity.

The amount of discussion around Bitcoin is high, with an increase in talk about liquidating Bitcoin for fiat currency.

Transcripts

Hello friends how's it going today we've

got Brian from santiment back at it

we're going to be talking about the

crypto markets which haven't been

looking so hot lately uh at the point we

are right now I think bitcoin's Hanging

On by a thread at the $60,000 Mark uh

but markets are down across the board so

we're going to talk about why that might

be we'll look at sentiment across the

market some of the drivers for this

price action and then we'll we'll

predict to the best of our abilities

with the data what might happen next so

that you can uh add that into your plan

and again as always if if you do want to

get access to these data tools you can

find link to Sandman in the description

below and there is a coupon code hosi in

there as well uh so Brian take us away

let's stock markets absolutely it's been

a wild ride uh especially this week as

we reached the 60k psychological support

level that many Traders have had their

eyes on for the first time since April

18th uh it feels like a lot longer but

yeah we just had that quick nose dive

excuse me back on uh the 18th that

spooked a lot of people and then there

was a quick recovery that time I think

in this case it's been a little more of

a gradual slide down which is concerning

because it doesn't it doesn't feel as

much like a flash crash this time that

would imply a quick rebound um and a lot

of our social data is confirming that

the crowd is a bit more spooked this

second time around compared to the one

two weeks ago

yeah and then looking at just social

media from everyone's account might be

looking slightly differently you know

algorithms and such but right now I'm

seeing almost consensus that this is not

good now there are still quite a few

people who I see on there especially the

influencer types are saying Hey listen

we're still in a bull market this is a

normal retraction I think we can talk

through that here and see what the data

says about whether There's real reason

to be concerned about the mid to

longterm Trend or if this is just a one

of those classic 40

50% drops for altcoins in the midst of a

bull market yeah totally and you know we

have to always acknowledge the fact that

there is a pretty big correlation right

now between crypto and the S&P and I

just pulled up this chart that shows

here in green this is bitcoin's price

here in teal this is uh the S&P 500

they're obviously on different axes but

you can see the relation between them

with Bitcoin of course being the more

volatile of the two um and both been

dropping pretty dramatically today in

particular um on some new inflation

concerns that have popped up in the US

um whatever country you may be watching

this from you've

probably kind of acknowledged that the

way the FED is and the way the uh

inflationary policies have been here in

the US at least the last few years have

had just a massive

uh kind of impact on the rest of the

markets so until that changes we have to

be conscious of the fact that the way

this the US Stock Market has been going

lately has had an impact on the way

crypto goes and it might

be uh emphasizing a greater drop than

crypto otherwise would be seeing on its

own if the S&P was stable right now so

that that could actually be a positive

argument uh indicating that if the S&P

starts to recover then crypto might see

a bit of a a relief rebound of its

own do you do you ever uh apply to this

particular chart now I agree with the

S&P correlation I know there's also gold

listed here on the the correlation chart

do you ever do this with the dollar as

well as in where the correlation is

between this and the US dollar yeah I'm

hoping we actually get dollar data on

our uh charts soon we don't currently

have them so usually I'll just open up

Yahoo um you know stocks and and kind of

see that way how crypto versus the

dollar are going and there is a pretty

inverse correlation between the two as

the dollar Rises crypto tends to

struggle obviously GP crypto is

perceived as the anti- Fiat so it only

makes sense and the ratio of you know

what makes Bitcoin worth 60k or so so

right now it's literally Bitcoin as the

numerator USD is the dollar so if the

dollar goes up that should theoretically

have an impact on bitcoin's value being

less um so yeah there there's an obvious

correlation that's kind of always

existed and I think 2022 was the most

recent uh time period where we saw the

Dollar's

value spiking I think it got to like 114

or so at one point maybe a little higher

um and that was in having a dramatic

impact on bitcoin's price falling off

the cliff and eventually getting into

the

15ks as FTX collapsed in November of

that

year yeah very interesting stuff so

obviously sentiment in the macro markets

and Tra traditional financial markets

matter here and there's lots of

concerning things on the macroeconomic

trends I feel like sentiment wise people

had priced in almost a guarantee of rate

hikes and quantitative easing and all

the things that led to the 2021 right

Bull Run Bull Run fervor and now we're

kind of saying that might not happen

this year might not happen in the

following year we're not sure yet um

yeah yeah interesting stuff the

indication was at least at the beginning

of the year that the rate hikes may be

done and people were actually leaning

toward uh the higher probability outcome

of of Rate rates being reduced again

which would be great for

yeah and so far neither has occurred

it's just been kind of a

hands-off um type of policy from the Fed

so far and I'm curious to see whether

that's going to change in our next uh

big fomc announcement in May um so

that'll have a pretty dramatic impact

whatever they end up

deciding gotcha that makes sense so then

also on maybe like from a socials

perspective or from an onchain

perspective even what are things what

are things looking like right now prob I

mean obviously negative price action but

what are other data points that we can

look at that might tell us a big story

yeah on the price and you can see the

sea of red no surprise there Bitcoin

down

4.3% and most assets down more than that

uh but bitcoin's social volume here has

jumped up dramatically today um up 25%

compared to the previous day if you look

at the previous week though Bitcoin is

actually being talked about less and

less and this is kind of a reflection of

all assets ethereum had a bit of a jump

because of the ETF discussions that have

been going on and the will they or won't

they news going on about whether the SEC

approves the first ethereum spot ETF but

the big story here is Bitcoin being

talked about less and less and that goes

all the way back to the past 30 days

this is a measurement of 30-day social

volume compared to the previous 30 days

and it's just with a few exceptions as

always just less and less discussion

across the board about assets and that's

kind of a an indication that there is

more and more of a bearish sentiment

going on and people believing that that

you know March 14th alltime

high was was the big moment and there

won't be another one for quite some time

so everyone's kind of just jumping off

the bandwagon now now I want to thank

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situation the

best yeah and you know you obviously

historical data only tells you so much

because we're in a very different space

than we were two three years ago but at

the same time thinking back to just

anecdotally my experience in previous

bull market setups is there are a couple

of these defl like deflating moments uh

in spans in the market where people

think it's over let's roll it up and see

you in a couple years and then things

come springing back to life y it's is

cooling off uh Curious to get your

thoughts on that you know maybe from the

lens of the data and what you what

you've been looking at over the last few

days yeah totally I mean you nailed it

there are so many cycles throughout

bitcoin's history where you see Euphoria

like we did throughout January February

and March and then things cool down

dramatically uh on the sentiment side

after prices drop where they go flat for

a while and all these foom oers who came

in over here in mid-march they're like

oh this isn't what I signed up for wi

price is going down I'm not interested

in crypto anymore and then there comes a

relief rally to kind of bait them back

in and start foming in and then the top

happens and rinse and repeat

um I'll open up a chart here I want to

show you exactly what our social volume

for Bitcoin looks like over time and how

uh sentiment comes into play on that so

we can measure we can measure

both uh the social volume of Bitcoin as

well as the positive versus negative

score ratio kind of like a fear and

greed index which many of you may be

familiar with um so this is is social

volume you can see how actually about

two weeks before the all-time high this

was when Euphoria was peing and there

was just tons and tons of discussion we

get a little more of a leg up and then

boom we start to have this dramatic drop

um and then weighted sentiment so this

is measuring the actual amount of social

volume related to bitcoin and it's

multiplied by the amount of comments

that are positive versus negative so

long story short when you see these

really high bars that's a sound of

euphoria and markets typically correct

when people are foming in and saying

they're about to get their new Lambo and

XYZ asset is about to go to the moon and

then vice versa when things are super

negative that tends to be when markets

rise this was a good example year in

late November and then people got

euphoric after the bounce happened and

then we see a retrace and a few weeks of

negativity

um it's been a bit more unpredictable

right we had from mid-march all the way

until mid April five straight weeks

where we were seeing more bearishness

than usual based on the historical

decade plus amount of data that we have

during that time it was kind of chopping

back and forth we Revisited 70k a little

bit ends up falling and then as we

rebound here we see the first big

Euphoria Spike this was last week as we

got all way back to I believe a little

above

67k and then after that Euphoria Spike

we dropped dramatically and now we're

back in this hugely bearish um fud

written type of narrative that the crowd

has created and I believe that's a good

thing based on history now of course

this is just the social end of things

and it's best if we combine it with you

know how the whales are acting what the

funding rates look like the overall

activity of Bitcoin and other top cap

networks that control the rest of the

smaller assets but on its own this is a

very good sign that we're starting to

see a lot of panic and fud and people

actually legitimately dropping their

their coins um and that's actually

Illustrated really well on this this is

one of my new favorite charts this is

actually the amount of wallets uh that

hold more than zero coins so basically

any non-empty coin uh and as it goes up

this is usually a sign that people are

confident and want to hold or buy more

and there's a a larger and larger

distribution of wallets of the given uh

finite supply of Bitcoin and actually

ever since April 26th or so about four

days ago from the time of this recording

uh we started to see this big flattening

period And this is a sign of small

Trader uh hesitation and fud and worry

generally during that time especially if

it's starts to go down so like these

these small Traders decide to liquidate

their wallets because they're just no

longer interested that's when we see

these huge Rises uh it's not a perfect

correlation by any means but we actually

want to see the amount of wallets that

have coins in them stop growing and

start to decline because that's a sign

of fud um and this line is almost

exclusively controlled by the small

wallets the amount of weight wallets out

there make up less than 0.01% of these

wallets so it's going to be the you know

tiny 0.01 BTC wallets that are really

driving this line up and

down so with this Rising this Rising

incline thereabouts in you know the

April time frame does that signal to you

not sizable necessarily but accumulation

from what we would deem maybe retail is

users yeah yeah it's it's these small

traders who decided uh that this this

dip here especially right here and in

mid April two three weeks ago this was a

great dip to buy according to them and

they were buying with confidence because

you know for the past six months before

it we were just seeing up up up Rising

all around so they were kind of defying

what the price trend was doing and

saying I'm going to buy with confidence

here because I think it's just going to

go back to 7 K and maybe break this

all-time high here uh and they ended up

being wrong right we saw a small relief

bounce but now all these people who were

buying here they're getting punished by

us

reaching the lowest level right now in a

couple weeks but probably it looks like

it's going to go to the lowest level

since late February right now right so

then ju opposing this then

against whale activity is probably

useful way to look at this right yeah

tot so if we go up to one of my go-to

charts here that I share on our own live

streams uh we're seeing here a few

different lines this bright green line

is the percentage of Supply that's held

by sharks and whales which we deem 10 to

10K BTC wallets there's obviously some

exchanges in here and some nullified

information but this is kind of the meat

meat and potatoes uh tier

of traders that tend to control where

prices go next and they have a pretty

good uh correlation with prices moving

up when they accumulate and going down

when they dump and we saw some

accumulation especially uh beginning in

late January up until late March and

during this time of course we had an

all-time high so about 10 days after

that alltime high they suddenly started

to dump and this dark green line

actually shows the amount of Bitcoin

held regardless of the percentage of

supply and from let's just go from

February 4th up until we say April four

April 3rd this two Monon stretch they

accumulated

27,000 BTC which is enormous tens of

billions of dollars after that I think

that actually might be hundreds of

billions of dollars actually but after

that they've actually dropped about 34k

of that

so still I mean the long-term Trend

looks pretty nice here but at

least since the beginning of the month

these last 4ish weeks or so we're we're

looking at the whales and sharks

actually taking some profit and the

prices seemingly following them uh and

until they start to turn it around and

resume their

accumulation there can be an argument

that will continue to slide very

slowly uh until either the crowd gets

really really fearful like the way late

November 2022 was with the FTX collapse

or the whales just decide you know what

prices are low enough I'm going to start

pumping those prices again and feel like

58k or 56k is a good uh price for me to

get in um and and start to accumulate

some wealth

again makes sense yeah it's interesting

to watch to watch these it's it's

looking at Where will accumulate versus

where the you know smaller Trader even

the you know the

individual is accumulating you can kind

of see exact see the difference between

the two yeah and great the reason I have

these red and blue lines here too is

they're the the lines representing shark

and whale uh stable coin Holdings and a

good predecessor that may be hinting

that they're going to start accumulating

again would be Fiat coming in from

outside sources to start indicating that

they're they're collecting a lot more

tether and USD coin once again if they

collect that then that leads to more

Bitcoin accumulation with those stable

coins so right now both are somewhat low

I mean stable coins especially they've

been dropping pretty dramatically

indicating that you know even during

this accumulation the stable coins were

being swapped for Bitcoin during that

big run that eventually got us to an

all-time high I'd like to see stable

coins start to jump up again right dry

powder for them to

buy exactly yeah how much how much do

you think the the prevalence for Bitcoin

specifically obviously but the

prevalence of purchasing through

instruments like the ETF now also an ETF

in I think it was Hong Kong

um do you think that that changes that

pattern a little bit where you can buy

not you can buy indirectly in a sense

not using usdt or USD DC mhm yeah

absolutely I mean it is a a new world

ever since the the ETFs were approved in

uh what was it January 10th or 11th

depending on your time zone of this year

um when that happened we kind of had

this new way of

viewing uh

onchain metrics and and

applying we have to we have to

understand that there's going to be

action that is impact ing prices that

are that that's completely away from the

onchain side of things now and uh we we

try to pay attention to inflows and

outflows uh we do have a dashboard that

kind of tracks volume we're still

working on an inflow and outflow aspect

of it that can show like the net inflow

versus outflow which is way more

important than volume in my opinion uh

but the next time we call that might be

done and I can show that off but it's

been kind of flat based on I've

understood and read from some of our

other um sources in crypto that do great

research on this stuff and even though

volume is maintaining like three to four

billion dollars per day at least among

the seven top seven largest ETFs for

Bitcoin it's a little concerning that

it's not coming from just new dollars

moving into the ETFs it's kind of just

buyers and sellers battling on a daily

basis right now right right and and then

that could be a result of

questionable economic situation around

the world right now you know trying to

figure out oh yeah what how to play

it yeah I'm also interested you know

especially when stocks and equities kind

of go through a bit of a tumultuous

period like they are right now do some

of those traditional Traders try to

hedge their bets and put their money in

crypto and if they do is that going to

lend to

crypto uh uncorr with the S&P and

pumping crypto up without its Reliance

so much uh so that could be a

development that we might see later this

year or in

2025 yeah that from even just from a bit

a Bitcoin perspective I'd be curious

because it will sort of validate or

invalidate the thesis that large larger

you know institutions but also just

larger net worth individuals

will seek refuge in in Bitcoin as a

wealth wealth preservation me mechanism

and I'm curious to see if that actually

pans out now that there is a financial

product they can access it

through yeah same I mean all the best

bull markets that we have seen going

back 12ish years or so they have

occurred when there is no Reliance uh on

the S&P 500 and equities markets it's

just Bitcoin doing its own thing right

some people think it has to be inverse

but that's not true either it's

basically just Bitcoin doing its own

thing and ignoring what's happening in

the real world that's when we see our

biggest gains in Bitcoin and crypto got

it yeah yeah it's this is why it's

better to look at data to try and make

sense of things rather

than just using our imagination because

sometimes what we think is influenced by

in invalid invalid data right or we just

have anecdotal experiences you might see

five straight posts on Twitter SLX and

say oh okay everyone's bullish yeah but

when you take a look at uh a scale of

millions of comments instead it might

paint a different picture right exactly

yeah we have a a a bias based on our

scope and algorithms Feed Us certain

stuff Yep this is why machines are

taking over they just do a better job

than we can at uh seeing the at putting

the vast quantity of information into a

meaningful story gotcha agreed but yeah

I mean the last thing I wanted to show

here is just the the overall amount of

discussion going into Bitcoin right now

which is quite high you can see these

these lines here are kind of widening a

little bit as of late bitcoin's price

Bitcoin and Fiat as people talk about

liquidating or bringing in new money I

think this is more so due to people

liquidating uh and trying to convert

their Bitcoin to dollars because they

think that the bull market is over which

actually is a bullish sign mhm um the

having is being talked about less and

less makes sense you've got random

outliers like Rune being talked about a

lot mem coins is certainly being they're

being ignored again because uh they've

been hammered as of late alt coins in

general are just getting uh crushed for

the past well throughout April really um

after the party kind of ended in in late

March for most mcoins and altcoins so

there's a lot of stories that you can

find here and um as as hashoshi

mentioned at the beginning of the call

you can just get a free trial and and

enter the code hashoshi and all caps and

you can just get uh all of this data at

your fingertips for free uh enjoy it for

a week decide if you like it and and

become a member if you'd like yeah

definitely something that I use pretty

often especially if I the way I use it

is um I come up with a hypothesis and I

come in here to try and validate or

invalidate it you know because then I

I'll usually be able to find some some

examples in here that that kind of

follow the trend I'm looking at and

others that say not so much and then I

can weigh the cases on either side you

know a lot of the stuff that we're

seeing now I think is a lot of people

who had priced in just through their

their speculation a lot of events that

are now becoming clear either they're

not happening at all or not happening

yet so we talked about rate cuts and we

talked about ETFs Etc all those things

together to me from a fundamentals

perspective add up to what we're seeing

in the markets today plus the data you

showed on on chain you know whales

trimming taking profits all the stuff

that's happening there causing us to

grind

down yeah no I think that's really well

said we saw a ton of FUD at the end of

last week when that announcement came

out about ethereum's ETFs um likely not

going to happen according do multiple

sources um and there there tends to be

an overreaction just like we saw with

the Bitcoin ETFs in like November and

December you know we started to hear

that it might be a while we had coin

Telegraph who we respect a lot you know

that in turn kind of put out that post a

little prematurely that they were

approved and that caused chaos and then

eventually it was approved and we

saw kind of a a sell the what was it a

buy the room or sell the news event

where everyone was like why isn't

Bitcoin going up they just got approved

and then after they stopped um being

euphoric about the ETFs that's when we

saw the alltime high in March so I

wouldn't be surprised if the crowd stops

or or becomes uh disinterested in the

ethereum ETFs then they get approved

maybe later this year who knows uh and

then we see this this big influx of an

altcoin rally uh toward the end of the

year but that's kind of a rough

prediction based on what we know now

yeah for sure it's hard to say so we'll

have to keep doing these videos and see

what the data tells us you know sort of

week in week out and uh and yeah Brian

thanks so much for being here thanks for

sharing all this data with us and again

your folks that are watching if you want

to test out sentiment links will be in

the description below not sponsored but

it's a tool that I use love having Brian

here so thanks very much and uh until

next time cheers always a pleasure

thanks my friend talk to you all soon