Analisis Sensitivitas

Summary

This lecture covers advanced investment analysis methods, specifically focusing on sensitivity analysis and break-even point (BEP) analysis. The instructor explains the importance of evaluating how changes in investment parameters (such as costs, benefits, interest rates) affect the overall investment outcome. Key concepts discussed include calculating sensitivity to individual variables, understanding BEP, and comparing multiple investment alternatives. The lecture emphasizes practical application with examples and aims to equip students with the skills to assess investment decisions based on variable changes. Further topics, including break-even analysis, will be explored in future sessions.

Takeaways

• 😀 Sensitivity analysis helps assess how changes in key investment parameters (like costs, benefits, interest rates) impact the overall investment decision.
• 😀 The goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify how sensitive an investment is to changes in one parameter at a time while keeping others constant.
• 😀 Break-even point (BEP) is crucial in investment analysis, showing the point where net cash inflows equal outflows, resulting in zero profit or loss.
• 😀 Key parameters in sensitivity analysis include investment amount, annual benefit, operational costs, and interest rates.
• 😀 Only one parameter can vary during sensitivity analysis, while all other factors are assumed to stay constant to simplify calculations.
• 😀 Sensitivity analysis can be conducted on various perspectives, such as the effect on the investment itself (self-sensitivity) or the comparison of multiple investment alternatives.
• 😀 If investment amount increases significantly beyond the initial estimate (e.g., from 1,000 million to 1,587 million), the investment may still be viable, but further increases make it unfeasible.
• 😀 A decrease in expected benefits (e.g., from 400 million to 214 million) can render the investment unfeasible due to insufficient returns.
• 😀 An increase in operational costs beyond a certain threshold (e.g., 235 million) can lead to an unfeasible investment, even if other parameters remain stable.
• 😀 Interest rate sensitivity is also critical, as increases in interest rates above a certain level (e.g., 30.8%) can turn an investment unprofitable.
• 😀 Sensitivity analysis can also be applied when comparing multiple investment alternatives, factoring in variables like investment duration and expected benefits to identify the best option.

Q & A

What is sensitivity analysis in investment decision-making?

Sensitivity analysis is a method used to assess how changes in one variable (such as investment amount, benefits, costs, or interest rate) affect the overall investment outcome. It helps determine which factors have the most significant impact on the financial feasibility of an investment.

What are the key parameters analyzed in sensitivity analysis for investment?

The key parameters analyzed in sensitivity analysis are: 1) Initial investment amount, 2) Annual benefits (revenue), 3) Operational costs, and 4) Interest rate. These parameters are examined individually to understand their impact on the investment's Net Present Value (NPV) and overall feasibility.

Why is it important to perform sensitivity analysis on investment decisions?

Sensitivity analysis is crucial because it helps investors understand how changes in specific variables (e.g., costs or benefits) will affect the profitability and risk of an investment. By identifying which factors are most sensitive, investors can make better-informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.

What is the break-even point (BEP) in investment analysis?

The break-even point (BEP) is the level at which the Net Present Value (NPV) of an investment equals zero. This indicates that the investment neither generates profit nor incurs a loss. It is a key measure used to assess the minimum performance required for an investment to be financially viable.

How does sensitivity analysis relate to break-even point analysis?

Sensitivity analysis and break-even point analysis are complementary. While sensitivity analysis explores the effect of changes in individual parameters on investment feasibility, break-even point analysis identifies the critical point at which the investment's NPV reaches zero, helping to assess if the investment will cover its costs.

What happens if the sensitivity analysis shows that one parameter significantly impacts the investment?

If sensitivity analysis reveals that one parameter (e.g., annual benefits, interest rate) has a significant impact on the investment's feasibility, it means that small changes in this parameter can lead to large changes in the investment's NPV. This insight allows investors to focus on managing or mitigating risks associated with that particular parameter.

What assumptions are made when conducting sensitivity analysis in this context?

The primary assumption in sensitivity analysis is that only one parameter changes at a time, while all other parameters remain constant. This simplifies the analysis and helps isolate the effect of each variable on the investment's outcome.

How do changes in the interest rate affect the sensitivity of an investment?

Changes in the interest rate directly affect the discounting of future cash flows, which in turn alters the Net Present Value (NPV). A higher interest rate reduces the NPV, making the investment less attractive, while a lower interest rate increases the NPV, potentially making the investment more feasible.

Can you explain how to calculate the sensitivity to annual benefits with an example?

To calculate sensitivity to annual benefits, you would adjust the expected annual benefits figure while keeping all other parameters constant. For example, if the annual benefit is initially 400 million, a sensitivity analysis might calculate the NPV at a lower benefit (e.g., 214 million). If the NPV turns negative, the investment is considered unfeasible at that benefit level.

What would happen if the operational costs exceed a certain threshold in sensitivity analysis?

If operational costs exceed a certain threshold, the investment may become unfeasible. For instance, if the operational cost surpasses a specific value (like 235 million in the example), the NPV could turn negative, indicating that the investment is no longer profitable.