The Reality and Practicality of Reshoring Manufacturing to the U.S.

Summary

在这段视频中，Smart Cube的创始人兼董事总经理Omar Abdullah讨论了将制造业重新迁回美国（即“回流”）所面临的现实和实际问题。他从组织内部和外部市场两个角度分析了这一问题，指出了供应链重构、生产成本、劳动力成本、制造技能差距等内部挑战，以及政治、市场存在和合规性等外部因素。Abdullah强调了在做出回流决策时需要考虑的复杂性和细微差别，包括供应商依赖、风险分散、合规性、税收和监管问题。他还提到了拜登政府的“购买美国货”倡议及其对企业决策的潜在影响，以及企业需要进行的全面成本所有权分析。最后，他提出企业需要根据自身的战略定位，考虑是否以成本或价值竞争，来决定是否回流。

Takeaways

• 🧐 公司在将制造业重新外包回美国时面临的主要问题包括供应链重组、生产成本、劳动力成本以及获取合适劳动力的挑战。
• 💰 美国的生产和劳动力成本高于中国、印尼、越南等东南亚国家，这需要企业在考虑重新外包时仔细权衡。
• 🔍 制造业技能缺口是一个现实问题，企业需要考虑是否能够获得所需的劳动力资源。
• 🌐 对于全球性公司如苹果，将所有制造业务从中国移回美国会对其市场存在和政治考量产生广泛影响。
• 📈 重新外包不仅仅是内部问题，还涉及到外部因素，如市场准入、地理位置、物流以及全球供应链的复杂性。
• 🚧 企业在考虑重新外包时，需要考虑外国退出规则、设施关闭的能力以及与非美国地区制造相关的抵消问题。
• 📊 遵守合规性是重新外包的关键，包括离开一个国家时的规则以及回到美国时的市场理解、劳动力差异和风险因素。
• ⚖️ 重新外包决策需要在集中供应商以加强伙伴关系和多元化供应商以降低风险之间找到平衡。
• 🔄 切换供应商并非易事，特别是在制药或复杂工程部件领域，需要时间来准备和认证新的供应商。
• 📉 过度多元化可能导致失去定价和能力上的杠杆作用，因此企业需要仔细考虑多元化策略。
• 🏢 拜登政府的“购买美国货”倡议可能会影响企业的重新外包决策，企业需要认真考虑这一政策的影响。

Q & A

什么是重振美国制造业所面临的主要问题？

重振美国制造业面临的主要问题包括供应链的重组、生产成本、劳动力成本、劳动力技能差距、市场准入以及政治和监管因素。

为什么说重新思考全球复杂的供应链是一个重大挑战？

因为多年来公司已经投入大量时间和资金构建了这些供应链，要完全重新思考并将其重新转移到美国，无论是从物流、成本还是操作复杂性来看，都是一项艰巨的任务。

劳动力成本在重振美国制造业中扮演什么角色？

劳动力成本是重振美国制造业时必须考虑的关键因素之一，因为美国的生产和劳动力成本通常高于中国、印尼、越南等东南亚国家。

为什么说获取正确的劳动力对于重振美国制造业至关重要？

获取正确的劳动力对于重振美国制造业至关重要，因为存在制造技能差距，且人们对工作类型的选择也会影响劳动力的可用性。

从外部市场角度来看，重振美国制造业会面临哪些挑战？

外部市场角度的挑战包括公司在全球范围内的市场存在，如苹果公司需要考虑从中国转移所有制造业务回美国对其在中国及其它地区市场存在的影响。

拜登政府的“购买美国货”倡议如何影响重振美国制造业的决策？

“购买美国货”倡议通过提高“美国制造”的门槛、要求更详细的披露以及联邦支出的权重，促使公司认真考虑重振美国制造业的决策。

在重振美国制造业时，公司如何平衡供应商集中和多元化的风险？

公司需要在建立紧密的供应商伙伴关系和避免对单一供应商的依赖之间找到平衡。这涉及到考虑成本、风险、市场准入、物流和总拥有成本等因素。

为什么说重振美国制造业不是一个简单的决定？

重振美国制造业不是一个简单的决定，因为它涉及到复杂的战略问题，如公司的竞争优势、成本与价值的权衡、劳动力和市场的可用性以及物流等。

公司在考虑重振美国制造业时需要进行哪些分析？

公司需要进行总拥有成本分析，考虑劳动力成本、市场准入、物流，并根据这些因素决定最佳的制造地点。

为什么说对于某些公司来说，重振美国制造业可能在经济上是有意义的？

如果公司在价值而非成本上竞争，或者能够通过提高效率和创新来抵消较高的生产成本，重振美国制造业在经济上可能是有意义的。

重振美国制造业的趋势是什么？

重振美国制造业的趋势并不是非黑即白的，不同的公司会根据其特定的业务模式、成本结构、市场定位和战略目标来决定是否以及如何重振美国制造业。

Outlines

00:00

🧐 制造业回流美国面临的主要问题

在本段落中，Omar Abdullah讨论了公司在将制造业重新迁回美国时面临的一系列问题。这些问题从内部组织的角度和外部市场的角度进行了分析。内部问题包括重新思考和重组多年来建立的复杂全球供应链、生产成本以及劳动力成本的考量，尤其是与东南亚国家相比，美国的劳动力成本较高。此外，还提到了获取合适劳动力的挑战，以及制造业技能差距的问题。外部因素则包括政治考量以及公司在全球市场，特别是中国市场的存在和增长潜力。此外，还提到了供应商网络的搬迁问题，以及与重新迁回美国相关的法规和合规性问题。

05:01

🤔 供应商集中与多元化的决策平衡

第二段落进一步深入探讨了在供应链管理中如何平衡供应商集中与多元化的问题。Omar提到，与少数供应商建立紧密的合作关系有利于建立更好的伙伴关系和信息共享，但这也意味着依赖性增加，一旦供应商所在地区出现问题，就会对公司造成影响。因此，公司需要考虑分散供应基地以降低风险，但这又涉及到寻找新供应商的成本和时间。此外，过度多元化可能导致在定价和能力方面失去优势。Omar还提到了拜登政府的“购买美国货”倡议，强调公司需要认真考虑这一政策变动，尤其是在联邦支出和披露要求方面。

10:02

💡 制造业回流的经济合理性分析

在最后一段中，Omar讨论了制造业回流是否具有经济意义的可能性。他指出，没有绝对的对错答案，公司需要根据自身情况进行全面的成本所有权分析，考虑可用的技能、成本、市场准入和物流等因素。Omar强调，公司需要问自己一些战略性问题，比如它们是在成本上竞争还是在价值上竞争。对于那些能够作为高端或专业玩家竞争的公司，即使劳动力成本上升，也可能有更多机会将生产重新迁回美国。他还提到了苹果公司作为一个例外，能够保持高利润率，但即便是苹果，也可能会选择保持其利润率并管理其全球生产布局。

Keywords

💡供应链重构

供应链重构指的是对现有供应链进行根本性的调整或重新设计。在视频中，提到公司多年来建立的复杂、相互连接的全球供应链需要被重新思考和调整，这涉及到从采购到制造再到分销的各个环节。供应链重构是制造业回流美国时面临的主要挑战之一。

💡生产成本

生产成本涉及制造产品所需的全部费用，包括劳动力成本。视频中提到，美国的生产成本通常高于中国、印尼、越南等东南亚国家，因此在考虑制造业回流时，生产和劳动力成本是一个重要的考量因素。

💡劳动力技能差距

劳动力技能差距指的是劳动力市场上现有技能与工作要求之间的差异。视频中提到，制造业目前存在技能差距，这可能影响到公司回流美国后能否找到合适的劳动力。

💡市场存在

市场存在涉及公司在全球不同市场中的地位和影响力。例如，苹果公司作为一个全球玩家，在考虑将制造业从中国迁回美国时，需要考虑其在中国等市场的市场存在和政治考量。

💡合规性

合规性指的是遵守特定国家或地区的法律法规。在视频中，提到公司在回流过程中需要考虑的合规性问题，包括退出外国市场的规定、税务问题以及与当地公司合作时的规则。

💡供应商依赖

供应商依赖描述了公司对单一供应商的依赖程度。视频中讨论了集中供应商的优势和风险，如更好的伙伴关系和数据共享，以及当供应链受到危机影响时可能出现的问题。

💡供应基地多样化

供应基地多样化是指公司从多个供应商采购产品或服务，以减少对单一供应商的依赖。视频中提到，虽然多样化可以降低风险，但也会带来成本和复杂性的增加。

💡拜登政府的购买美国货计划

购买美国货计划是拜登政府推动的一项政策，旨在增加联邦政府对美国制造产品的采购。视频中提到，公司需要认真考虑这一政策，因为它可能会影响他们的回流决策，包括披露制造细节和可能的价格优惠。

💡总拥有成本

总拥有成本是指拥有某项资产所需的全部成本，包括直接和间接成本。视频中强调，公司在考虑回流时，需要进行全面的成本分析，包括劳动力成本、市场准入、物流等因素。

💡战略问题

战略问题涉及公司的基本经营策略和长期目标。视频中提到，公司需要问自己是在成本上竞争还是在产品价值上竞争，并根据这些战略问题来决定是否回流制造业。

💡市场准入和物流

市场准入和物流涉及产品如何进入市场以及分配的效率。视频中讨论了在回流决策中考虑市场准入和物流的重要性，包括产品是留在美国市场还是再次出口到全球市场。

Highlights

Omar Abdullah讨论了公司在将制造业重新外包回美国时面临的主要问题，包括内部组织视角和外部市场视角的考量。

全球复杂且相互连接的供应链的解构和再思考是一个巨大的挑战。

生产成本，尤其是劳动力成本，是美国比中国、印尼、越南等东南亚国家更高的一个关键考虑因素。

获取正确的劳动力类型和解决制造技能差距是内部考虑的另一个重要方面。

外部因素，如市场存在和政治考量，对于全球公司如苹果在考虑将生产从中国移回美国时非常重要。

提到了供应商园区的问题，整个供应链可能需要迁移。

讨论了外国退出规则、关闭设施的能力以及与非美国地区制造相关的抵消问题。

税收、监管和合规性是重新外包决策中需要考虑的重要因素。

公司需要了解市场、能力、技能的可用性以及地理和劳动力差异。

需求和供应方面的风险因素，以及产品生产的物流考虑是决策过程中的关键点。

供应商集中与多样化之间的平衡是一个长期的难题，涉及伙伴关系和依赖性。

拜登政府的“购买美国货”倡议对公司决策有重大影响，特别是对于联邦支出和披露要求。

公司需要认真考虑“购买美国货”倡议，并进行场景分析以评估总拥有成本。

重新外包的经济意义取决于对所有权成本、技能、劳动力成本、市场准入和物流等因素的综合分析。

公司需要问自己的关键战略问题是，他们是在成本上竞争还是在产品价值上竞争。

对于那些作为高端或专业玩家运营并能够收取更多费用的公司，重新外包可能是正确的决定。

Omar Abdullah强调，每个组织都必须进行分析，考虑总拥有成本，并决定最佳的重新外包位置。

Transcripts

[Music]

the reality and practicalities of

reshoring i'm joined by omar abdullah

founder and managing director of the

smart cube hello omer how are you

hi bob i'm doing well thank you so much

for taking the time to speak with me i

really appreciate it so what are some of

the major issues today that companies

face in reshoring manufacturing to the

u.s

sure there so there's a host of issues

and and i would look at them um from a

couple of different perspectives i've

looked at them from both an internal

point of view an organizational point of

view as well as a

external market perspective as well um

from an internal perspective you know

there's the obvious ones which is

you know companies have spent a lot of

time and a lot of money thinking through

these global complex

interconnected supply chains that

they've built up over the years over the

decades and undoing that and rethinking

uh that in an extreme sense if we're to

talk about pure re-shoring of all of

that

uh all of that work back to the us

that's a pretty monumental task if if

it's even at all possible uh in a

complete sense so that restructuring of

the supply chain is is a major challenge

that you have to think through all of

the different piece parts from sourcing

right the way through to manufacturing

right the way through the distribution

aspects

um of course uh a lot of this distills

down to

aspects around production costs which of

course leads to labor cost

considerations you know the us is a

higher priced market than say china

indonesia vietnam and countries

in southeast asia so certainly

production and labor costs have to get

considered um but also aspects around

access to the right kinds of labor right

in terms of what kind of work people

want to do uh we're all hearing about

the manufacturing skills gap that's uh

to play right now so are you even able

to get that so i think i mean those are

a few illustrative examples but those

are the internal considerations beyond

that

there'll be external factors as well if

you consider a company like you know

let's pick the most obvious example

apple right global player plays in

pretty much every country in the world

for them to say you know we're going to

move all of our manufacturing back from

china

over back to the u.s has a lot of

implications first and foremost the

internal aspects that i just talked

about but also uh political um well

political may not be the right word but

certainly

uh broader considerations about their

market presence in china as an example

i'm just picking china's one

example there but you know how does that

reflect on your presence in the space if

you look at china as a potential

consumer market which it is and it's

only growing how do you consider what

those implications are from a political

perspective in the region as well so

there's a host of factors that play into

this whole

re-shoring topic that i think add a lot

of complexity and nuance to that

consideration that is a lot of factors

and in the case of apple of course they

have an extremely complex supply chain

it's not just they make everything in

china and ship it here they source stuff

from all different countries right

uh and you also point interesting you

should mention about the need to bring

along your suppliers we talked about

these supplier campuses sometimes it

surround manufacturing plants that

that whole thing would have to come over

um so you talked about some of the

natural restrictions

the inherent restrictions that they face

what about regulations and things like

that compliance what are some of the

areas that they have to think about uh

when reshoring comes it comes into the

picture

yeah yeah so um

you know

there's a host of factors around

uh the restrictions and regulations that

are faced i mean there's certainly

foreign country exit rules that you

would have to think about and consider

there is the aspect of how do you shut

down facilities and are you even able to

do that you know some organizations when

they go into manufacturing in in uh in

non-us and let's say asian locations et

cetera have to deal with this issue of

offsets well now how do you how do you

deal with that and how do you sort of

manage around some of those aspects so

those sorts of requirements um from a

taxation perspective from a regulatory

perspective from a

uh some of the nuances of the companies

that you deal with all of those factors

play in and really

impact uh how you need to think about

this now from a compliance perspective

i guess from a compliance perspective

there's a compliance aspect of the

country leaving and the rules that you

have to observe and abide by there then

there's a the aspect of how you make the

right decisions in terms of when you're

coming over

to back to the us in this case since

we're talking about reshoring um you

know aspects of do you understand the

market and the availability of the

capabilities and skills that you need

do you understand some of the

geographic aspects in

labor variances that exist do you

understand some of the risk factors at

play demand and supply side

considerations again in terms of where

are you feeding the product that's being

produced is it coming back is it staying

here in which case logistics are

somewhat easier is it going to go back

out across the world all of those

aspects

all of those factors need to be

considered so how can you as an

organizer and then as an organization

do you have the capability to be able to

really make it work so that's a those

are some fundamental aspects that that

really

throw a wrench into

the simplicity of the idea of simply

re-shoring back yeah and when it comes

to making the decision as to where

you're sourcing generally on the one

hand you have the risk of concentrating

uh your supplier in one place

on the other hand you have the cost and

complexity of diversifying sourcing and

yet that mitigates the risk of losing

that single source so i'm interested in

just how you balance those

considerations and how you make those

decisions

yeah gosh i mean that's a

it's an age-old conundrum right i mean

it is

on the one hand you want close supplier

partnerships you want fewer uh suppliers

that you work with because you can have

better partnerships you can share data

more openly you can have

a

better timings from a from a whether

suggested time system or however you

want to set up your manufacturing to be

able to really partner closely and in

many situations you know uh uh take like

say for in the pharma industry uh or

other aspects you know where you license

technologies and you utilize their

capabilities they can be gain sharing

arrangements that are put in place

certainly happens in the cpg space as

well so

uh the the the beauty of supplier

concentration is it allows for a much

better partnership but of course

the problem then becomes now i'm

dependent right so so that's the flip

side where

if there's a problem and there's an

issue so for example everything that

happened last year or it can pick a

crisis that's taken place and how that's

disrupted a particular geography and

impacted your ability to then

move goods from that geography that

supplier dependence has a price that you

end up paying so

you know then you think about okay well

i need to diversify my supply base well

how straightforward and easy is that to

do if you're buying a commodity product

it's not really a problem because you've

got plenty of folks and you can you know

pick up and go from one to the other but

if you're

sourcing let's say apis in the

pharmaceutical space or other complex uh

engineered parts that you're you're

partnering with organizations for

there's a switching cost involved you

don't just find a new supplier even at

one who's capable

and pick up tomorrow there's a 6 12 18

24 month time frame to

get them ready to get them certified

have them at a point where they can

really fit in and tool right in to your

uh production process so uh

it's it's a tricky aspect right and then

if you diversify too much you don't have

the right leverage from a pricing point

of view from a capability point of view

so all the factors have to get really

thought through and carefully it's a

balance at the end of the day in terms

of how it plays out how does the biden

administration's buy american initiative

factor into this does it become a big

consideration in making the decision or

is it not that that major something that

companies should be thinking about

you know i i think companies need to uh

take it reasonably seriously and

consider it i mean if you look at the

you know there's a couple of things that

are quite interesting about it right so

uh one is obviously the threshold of

made in america going from 55 percent to

65 to 75 over the next gosh what is it

seven or eight years uh as being a

target there's the aspect of that you

now have to disclose uh the details you

can't just say yeah i mean the threshold

it's you know you have to provide more

of the detail as to to what extent

you're doing that um there's the factor

of 600 billion

dollars of federal spending that now has

that weight in power and a lot of

consumer goods they don't just buy

aerospace and defense they've got a lot

of stuff so so companies i think need to

begin to take that seriously in terms of

how that's going to factor in i think

they have to think hard and fast uh hard

certainly and as this evolved now we

don't know all of the details of the

policy right so for example they talk

about price preferences that are being

given so if i'm an organization and i'm

thinking you know there's an incentive

for me to reassure back here well what's

the magnitude of that incentive that i

that i get um

my labor let's say for example my

production costs will go up therefore

the cost of my product is higher now the

administration is saying as part of the

buy american program that they'll give

price preferences but we don't really

know what that is at this point in time

but hopefully we'll know more in you

know as time goes on but all of those

factors have to get considered so it

just points back to the thing so to

answer your

original question 100 we have to take it

seriously and i do think there is a

broader sense in the us that we need to

think about uh you know

offshoring shouldn't be a reflex action

right for many years there's a lot of

companies where

the reflex action that's what i'm going

to do

but there are trade-offs and there are

trade-offs i mean there's many

situations where it makes perfect sense

and there's many situations you know

where it doesn't make sense where the

service aspect you lose out on or the

the the the cost staff that you lose out

on so it's important to consider all of

those factors i think we have to take it

seriously i think you have to look at

and do scenario analysis in terms of

what the total cost of ownership

implications are

this should cost the

implications for your product if you

were to move from that threshold

depending on wherever you are today as

an organization from the 55 percent to

the 65 and 75 etc yeah it's really hard

to gauge omer as to what kind of move

we're actually seeing because i talked

to some people who say

reshoring is definitely happening and i

talk to others who say reshoring is

never going to happen to any great

degree so but you are saying are you not

the implication here is that there is a

possible scenario whereby it does make

economic sense if you consider all the

factors that we've talked about the last

few minutes is that correct

exactly right and look i don't think

there's an um extreme right or wrong

answer in any of this i mean it's kind

of like the worst of home conversation

we're having

where there's a school of thought that

says the office is dead and i'm in

downtown chicago that all of this is

going to go away and then there's a

school of thought that says it's all

going to come back i think the answer i

mean right now the answer i think

realistically is somewhere in between

for sure there's certain types of jobs

where you'll be remote and there's other

types where you've got to be back in the

office i think the long-term trend

personally on the work from home issues

we're coming back uh for the most part

to the office but that's a separate

topic on this particular issue i would

say i think you know companies have to

card they have to think about um

as i mentioned total cost of ownership

but they have to look at the skills that

are available let's look at the costs

that are available

they have to look actually a lot of

companies are going to get forced to ask

some pretty strategic questions which is

what are you competing on are you

competing on cost or are you competing

on value in terms of your product now

this is a broader strategic question

that we have to think about right and so

uh uh i think those who compete more on

value on

uh operating as a premium as a specialty

player who can charge more i think

they've got more opportunity to reassure

that may well be the right decision you

know

interestingly enough that apple example

apple is a premium player

uh that plays to a mass market and yet

has incredible margins much like a

luxury brand right

so they've kind of figured out but

apple's the exception in being able to

do that right um and even apple if you

ask them if they're going to fully

reshore i'm not speaking for apple i've

not talked to anybody at all yeah i

would imagine they're going to want to

preserve their margins and and and

manage a lot of what's going on so i

don't think it's a black and white

answer i think every organization has to

do an analysis from a total cost of

ownership they have to look at skills

they have to look at um labor costs look

at market access logistics all of those

factors

and then make a decision as to where the

right location is omer abdullah of the

smart cube thank you so much for sharing

with us the subtleties and complexities

of the decision involving reshoring of

manufacturing back to the united states

thank you very much for being with me

today i really appreciate it

thank you so much great being with you