NorthCast Market Update: Intervention Time

Summary

この週の市場アップデートでは、2024年5月5日の「介入の時刻」に焦点が当てられています。先週の市場は大きく動揺し、重要な注目点となりました。売り入れたシグナルや背後の仕組みについて触れた後、市場は強気の週足ハンマーキャンドルを形成し、週足5EMAを再クローズしました。これにより、ベアライズが進行中であると見なすことができますが、まだ確定的ではありません。また、市場の状況が変わりつつあることに注意が必要です。ヤレン氏の活動に注目し、財政介入が行われたと述べています。これは、金融市場の安定性を保つために必要な措置です。さらに、債務再融資や住宅市場への影響など、金利の高さが経済に与える圧力を減らす必要があると語りました。また、市場はレートカットに向かって走ることが好まれ、雇用率の変化や企業収益の動向にも注目していますが、現在は景気後退の証拠がなく、市場が新たな高値を記録する余地があると結論づけています。

Takeaways

• 📈 最近の市場は大きな動きがあり、注目すべきです。特に、市場が厳しい状況に陥ったときには介入が行われることが多いです。
• 📊 前週の安売シグナルやボリューム工場の指標について話しましたが、それにより上周は看涨的なハンマーキャンドルが形成され、週足5EMAを再クローズしました。
• 🐻 熊派はまだ期待を持ち続けていますが、S&P 500の50日移動平均がまだ再確保されていないため、まだ状況を見守る必要があります。
• 📉 市場の名前は少し変わったと感じます。ジェネット・イェレン氏の活動に注目し、市場が揺らぐときに彼女が登場する傾向に注意を払うべきです。
• 🇺🇸 財務省の債務買い戻しが発表され、QT（数量緩やかな金融政策）の引き下げが市場に驚愕を与えました。これにより金融市場の安定性が保たれることが期待されます。
• 📚 インフレ報告が過去4ヶ月で予想を上回っているにもかかわらず、市場はそれに対応しています。これは市場に大きな影響を与えるため、常に注目すべきです。
• 💵 ドルは今年非常に強い傾向を示しており、干渉によって市場に影響を与える要因の1つです。
• 📉 介入によって金利が下がることが求められ、実際にも2年間のトレンドが変わりました。これは市場に重要なメッセージを送っています。
• 🌐 金融政策の介入はアメリカ連邦準備制度理事会と財務省だけでなく、日本の銀行など他の国々も行っています。
• 🏠 金利の高さは経済や住宅市場に影響を与えますが、供給不足が続く住宅市場では金利が下がることが望ましいです。
• 📅 今後の見通しとして、5月のインフレ報告や6月のQTの減少、さらには企業収益の動向が注目されます。企業収益が上がっている限り、市場は新たな高値を記録する余地があります。
• 📉 熊市は50日移動平均を下回す必要があります。それがなければ、市場は引き続き上昇を続ける可能性があります。

Q & A

2024年5月5日の市場動向について説明してください。

2024年5月5日の市場は、先週の過剰販売信号とそれに続く興味深い価格動きに注目しました。週の終わりには、週足のハンマーキャンドルが形成され、週の5EMAを再クローズしました。これは、潜在的な上昇トレンドを示唆しています。

先週の市場で見られた「熊の罠」とは何ですか？

「熊の罠」とは、市場が売り圧によって下落し、その後買い手が市場を引き上げることによって形成されるパターンです。先週は、売り圧の後で週足のハンマーキャンドルが形成され、潜在的な上昇トレンドを示唆しています。

Janet Yellenが市場にどのような影響を与える可能性がありますか？

Janet Yellenは、連邦準備制度理事会（FED）や財務省での活動を通じて市場に影響を与える可能性があります。彼女が関与するたびに、市場の不安定さが減少し、金融市場の安定性が保たれる傾向があります。

国債の買い戻しが市場にどのような影響を与える可能性がありますか？

国債の買い戻しは、市場への介入の一形態であり、金利を下げ、金融市場の安定性を高める効果があります。また、債務の再融資コストを下げることにも繋がります。

金利の上昇がhousing marketにどのような影響を与える可能性がありますか？

金利の上昇はhousing marketに悪影響を及ぼす可能性があります。金利が高くなれば、住宅ローンの利率も上昇し、住宅市場の需要が低下する可能性があります。

市場が見ている可能性のある「Bear flag」とは何ですか？

「Bear flag」とは、市場の下降トレンドの中間に現れる、一時的な価格の上昇を表すパターンです。これは、下降トレンドの再開を予測する指標と見なされることがあります。

市場が注目している50日の移動平均線とは何ですか？

50日の移動平均線は、過去50営業日の終値を平均化した指標であり、市場の動向を判断する際に用いられるテクニカル分析のひとつです。これは、市場のトレンドを把握するために用いられます。

2024年の市場で見られる可能性のある「rate Cuts」とは何ですか？

「rate Cuts」とは、中央銀行が金利を下げることを意味します。これは、経済活動を刺激するために行われることが多く、株式市場には好影響を与える傾向があります。

市場が注目している「corporate earnings」とは何ですか？

「corporate earnings」とは、企業の利益を意味します。これは、企業の業績を示す重要な指標であり、市場の動向を予測する際に考慮されます。

市場が見ている「recession risk」とは何ですか？

「recession risk」とは、経済後退のリスクを意味します。これは、市場が経済の減速や悪化を予測する際に考慮される要素です。

Janet Yellenが関与することで、市場が期待する「intervention」とは何ですか？

「intervention」とは、政府や中央銀行が市場に直接的に介入し、金融市場の安定性を保つための措置を講じることを意味します。これには、金利の操作や国債の買い戻しなどが含まれます。

市場が注目している「inflation reports」とは何ですか？

「inflation reports」とは、インフレーション率に関する報告書を意味します。これは、経済の健全性を示す指標であり、中央銀行の金融政策に影響を与える可能性があります。

Outlines

00:00

📈 市場の状況と干渉の時

この段落では、2024年5月5日の北投市場更新について語り合い、先週の市場動向に注目を向けています。オーバーソールドシグナルやファクトリーの叫び声、そして裏側で行われていることについて触れ、先週の価格動きについて分析。また、市場がどのように変化し、ジェネット・イェレン（元FED、現在は財務省）の関与についても語っています。

05:02

📉 金利の動向と市場への影響

第2段落では、金利の高さが経済や住宅市場に与える影響について述べています。金利が上がると住宅市場に悪影響を及ぼすだけでなく、政府は金利を下げることが必要です。また、市場の干渉が行われたことや、今後の市場の見通しについて触れています。

10:03

💹 企業業績と市場の未来

最後の段落では、企業業績と市場の関係について語ります。2008年や2000年に起こったように、金利が下がっても市場が悪化する可能性があると述べています。しかし、企業業績が向上している限り、市場は上昇し続ける可能性があります。また、今後の市場の見通しについても触れています。

Keywords

💡市場介入

市場介入とは、政府や中央銀行が市場の不安定さや経済の変動を緩和するために、金融政策を通じて市場に直接的に干渉することを指します。ビデオでは、市場が厳しい状況にあるときには政府が介入することが必要であると述べられており、それがビデオの中心的なテーマの一つです。

💡売り手トラップ

売り手トラップは、市場が大幅に下落した後、さらに下落が見込まれるが、逆に急上昇を遂げるパターンを指します。ビデオでは、売り手トラップについて話し合い、それが潜在的な市場の底を示す可能性があると述べています。

💡週足利

週足利とは、1週間の間に形成される株式のキャンドルスティックチャートのパターンであり、市場の動向を予測するために使用されます。ビデオでは、週足利が市場の見通しを示す重要な指標となっていると説明しています。

💡5週EMA

5週EMA（指数移動平均線）は、過去5週間の株価データを重視した移動平均線であり、短期的な市場のトレンドを示す指標です。ビデオでは、5週EMAが市場のサポートレベルとして機能していると触れています。

💡20週EMA

20週EMAは、過去20週間の株価データを重視した移動平均線であり、より長期的なトレンドを表す指標です。ビデオでは、20週EMAが3回テストされており、市場の底を示す可能性があると述べています。

💡Janet Yellen

Janet Yellenは、アメリカ合衆国財務長官であり、経済政策の決定に関与しています。ビデオでは、彼女が市場への介入を行ったと触れており、それが市場の流れに影響を与えると述べています。

💡国債買戻し

国債買戻しとは、政府が発行した国債を市場から買い戻すことを指します。ビデオでは、国債買戻しが市場への介入の一形態であり、金利を下げることになると説明しています。

💡金利

金利は、借入するお金に対して支払われる利息を表します。ビデオでは、金利が経済や市場に与える影響について語り合い、低金利が経済を刺激する一方で、高金利が経済に圧力をかける可能性があると述べています。

💡housing market

housing marketとは、住宅を売買する市場を指します。ビデオでは、金利がhousing marketに与える影響について触れており、金利が上がることによりhousing marketに圧力がかかる可能性があると述べています。

💡ドル

ドルとは、アメリカ合衆国の通貨を指します。ビデオでは、ドルの価値が変動し、それが株式市場や他の金融市場に影響を与えると述べています。また、ドルが安くなることで株式市場が好調になる可能性があると触れています。

💡企業arnings

企業arningsとは、企業が利益を生む能力を指します。ビデオでは、企業arningsが上がることにより市場が好調になる可能性があると述べており、それが市場の見通しを示す重要な指標となるとしています。

Highlights

Last week's price action resulted in a bullish weekly Hammer candle, closing back above the weekly 5 EMA.

The three-week correction ended at the weekly 20 EMA, which held three times with higher lows each time.

There is a potential bear flag on the S&P 500, but it has not been convincingly recaptured yet.

Janet Yellen's concern about market stability and intervention has been a recurring theme since her time at the Fed.

The Treasury announced BuyBacks and the Fed is tapering QT, signaling a shift towards maintaining financial stability.

Yellen's recent comments and actions have coincided with market interventions and VIX declines.

High yields are putting stress on the economy, debt financing, and the housing market, necessitating lower yields.

Intervention by the Fed and Treasury has led to a recent trend break in 2-year yields.

The Bank of Japan also intervened recently, highlighting the ongoing battle to control yields.

The interventions are impacting the dollar, which has been strong this year but could benefit from a lower value.

The market is approaching a situation where a bear trap is possible, favoring bulls if bears do not assert themselves soon.

Key MA support levels held during the recent correction, with room for the market to move higher.

A proper market top would typically show negative weekly divergence and excess, which has not occurred yet.

The monthly 5 EMA held in April, and bears need to break it to have a chance at a larger correction.

With BuyBacks starting in May and QT reductions in June, liquidity conditions could become more favorable for bulls.

The new set of inflation reports in mid-May will be key, as everything will be interpreted with a view towards rate cuts.

While recession risks exist, the recent jobs report and rate cut expectations led to a positive reaction in equities.

Corporate earnings growth remains positive, which is not indicative of a recession.

Markets have room to make new highs again as long as earnings continue to rise.

The final phase before any potential recession favors bulls, especially with interventions and supportive liquidity conditions.

Transcripts

hey guys s here with a new North cast

market update titling this week's

edition intervention time for May 5th

2024 oh yeah it was quite the week last

week and I think we all need to pay

close attention to what's

happening uh what's the old saying when

the going gets tough they intervene and

it's been the you know bone of

contention for many many years but we

you we got to deal with the market we

have not the market we necessarily want

and we got to be aware of all this so

let's go through it first of all last

week I put out this thing about bear

trap talked about oversold signals I

talked about the yelling Factory again

and some of the plumbing going on behind

the scenes and lo and behold we got

interesting price action last week that

resulted in a bullish weekly Hammer

candle quite impressive on that basis

closed back above the weekly 5 EMA

remember that was just Dang Dang Dang

support all the way up then we had a

three-week correction ending at the

weekly 20 EMA held three times higher

lows each time boom so on that basis you

can maybe make the case this is very

bullish bears are toast right I mean

bears are hanging on to something here

which is this potential be flag on the

S&P 50m not convincingly recaptured yet

at this point uh and you know if this

were to play yeah yeah you can make

still the case to 4,800 38 to 150 ma in

previous January 2022 high so there's

all kinds of uh scenarios to be drawn

still and still got to be aware of that

but we also got to be aware that the

name of the game has changed a little

bit last week so you know I can't

discount this but notice things are

changing and you know I've been talking

my yelling for many years this is not a

new meme I put this first out in

2014 can you believe it found on my

website so that's kind of dating myself

you know learning to speak yanes over

the last 10 years and she's been active

an operator and someone to pay attention

to for long time whether she was at the

fed or now at the treasury and I've been

saying this for a while right I mean

this meme since we're on memes we'll

stick with this meme this is one the one

I put out literally this is the UK time

zone 8 minutes before the FED

announcement on

Wednesday and it was already kind of

clear to me what was going on here you

know she's you know they announced

treasury BuyBacks this week you know the

message was clear they're going to taper

QT they even surprised the market with

tapering it even more it's happening

they're they're already setting the

stage for what they need to do uh in

terms of keeping finan final stability

going because at the end of the day

that's the prime mandate it's not you

know unemployment and price stability

it's Financial stability no matter what

they claim to the public uh and so this

whole you know inflation reports

exceeding expectations for the for last

four months if you were with that Mantra

you didn't see that coming right they're

going to do that anyway uh and it's

important to pay attention to the stuff

uh because it has such an impact on

markets obviously as we saw again this

week as I said I've I've been saying

this for a while here's 22 in October 22

once Yellen is concerned intervention is

not far behind and we we saw that again

last year in the last couple years right

uh with the vix Crush every time there

is trouble in the market pay attention

yelling shows up whenever something is

starting to get shaky she shows up and

it happened in the last couple years and

it happened again here this into end of

April the selloff that we had you know

we had this initial Vic Spike then she

had a news conference with various

issues and you know GDP can be revised

blah blah blah because whenever there's

bad news yeah she she'll sweet talk it

you you can you can think I'm nuts about

all this I'm just seeing you know was it

yelling famously once s said correlation

is not causation well in this case I

would argue there is right I mean she

showed up here vix got crushed yelling

got concerned this week vix got crushed

it is always the same Spiel and this was

April 30th and then the next day she

announces treasury BuyBacks right

intervention not far behind and the

point in all

this is what's been happening on the

yield front here in recent months is

gotten to the point where it was

untenable again you know when when

you're run this massive deficit and you

got to refinance all this debt you don't

want higher yields you want lower yields

and to the extent that yields are so

high and they're putting so much stress

on the economy debt financing housing

market with higher mortgage rates blah

blah blah blah it's actually going count

it's it's so bizarre we're in a

situation where higher rates and high

yields obviously impact the housing

markets and because we had this long

period of no rate

mortgages are locked in and so it keeps

the hard um housing market basically you

know lack of Supply which keeps prices

up so typically you would want to see

prices reduce but you can't do that when

you when you take out the supply in the

housing market so it's this bizarre

situation where actually lower rates

would be helpful for the housing market

but it's it's neither here nor there the

point is they need lower yields and once

you got interven mention in the house

that's exactly what happened you see the

sequence and boom we got the trend break

on the 2-year now is this straight down

I don't think so there's going to be all

kinds of back and forth on all this but

the message is clear they wanted lower

yields and they got lower yields and of

course the fed and the treasury are not

the only ones dealing with intervention

here is now the boj you know margia put

out this cup in handle but the view was

that if this starts breaking out it's

it's pretty clear they're going to do

something right and that's what they did

uh when it broke out and now got back to

support so this is got an ongoing battle

I'm not saying all these interventions

are successful but they're clearly part

of the landscape now okay and obviously

this has an impact on the dollar and

Dollar's been very hot this year as well

and there were plenty of reasons to want

to have a lower dollar which is all

supportive of equity so you know bare

flag aside you can make the case now

with all these interventions

happening or about to happen because the

buyback starting in in May and QT is

starting to come out as well in

June so then all a sudden you're looking

at back at a at a market where we just

had a correction U basically tagging key

ma support you know here into the weekly

20 ma and then it has conceptual room

higher keep in mind typically what you

want to see in a proper top is some sort

sort of negative weekly Divergence we

had this up here we had this in previous

times as well plus some sort of like

real sense of excess which is with price

outside the weekly Ballinger band we

haven't even touched a weekly Ballinger

band all year and that's what at 5341

you know we're not even there yet so as

long as this holds Bear's got nothing I

hate to say this right so then this can

just keep cranking up which goes back to

my comment about the monthly you know

monthly 5 EMA held in April held again

now so Bears need to break that Ma

before they have a shot at a larger

correction and as long as they don't you

know this thing can you know look at the

next FIB level 1618 FIB 5621 you know

I'm look I I'm not making predictions

here I'm just saying pivots of control

and so far Bulls remain in control and

sa for that 50 Ma on The Daily hasn't

been hit yet you know everything else

has been saved again I.E the weekly 5

EMA so it be interesting to see what

happens in in May uh because by June you

have a shift in liquidity again

favorable of bulls with QT being reduced

right and Janet Yellen with the treasury

RRP still has about $450 billion in it

so there's a shot for them to drain that

which adds to liquidity so we'll see and

key in all of this obviously will be the

new set of of inflation reports in mid

middle of the month because now

everything everything is going to be

interpreted with view of rate Cuts right

I mean that's why we saw on Friday when

the jobs report finally came in uh worse

and that added to rate cut expectations

and that's why we saw the positive

reaction in equities on Friday so that's

that's all kind of the the game plan

here um markets love to run towards rate

Cuts now people will rightfully say well

what's what about a recession risk I

mean if I look at the change in the

unemployment rate going to positive you

know it's still low at

3.9% but that's typically a recession

sign fair enough now two points to say

on that actually maybe three points one

is you know is this because of this

massive covid Madness Stu we had is this

all maybe a little bit skewed from a

lens perspective possibly um but then

you know if you look at the real

recession risk you know it happens

typically when when you say uh

unemployment really ticking up and the

fit cutting rates I mean that's

certainly what we saw here right so

anyone that's so eager for rate Cuts you

know that turned out badly in in 2008

obviously in 2000 because that's when

recessions were unfolding but it's not

so clearcut right because certainly we

had rate Cuts in 2019 and markets were

still rallying right well what's what's

the differentiating factor here you know

between fed funds rate and unemployment

Rising well it's corporate earnings you

know if you look at Gap

earnings this is here in in the red you

know Gap earnings are going up you know

when when we had these rollovers in 2008

and we had in 2000 you

it's not until earnings really drop off

the cliff that you have a major problem

in markets I what I said earlier 2019

earnings were going up that's why

markets were rallying so it's not the

signal that the rate cuts and cells are

bad you got to see what's happening with

earnings and guess what just the

earnings season that we're just

concluding earnings growth is 5%

positive record earnings that's not a

recession right so you need to see

evidence of a recession unfolding or the

market anticipating in terms of

declining earnings well it's not there

yet earnings are still going up and that

leaves room right for markets to make

new highs again as much as anyone May

hate it but you know now they put a Line

in the Sand with regards to yields with

regards to quantitive tightening so you

know this is why I'm saying the Final

Phase here before any re recession if

there is a recession which is we still

don't have evidence for at the moment um

it's all pretty much in Bull's favor

coming into the summer now I don't know

what's going to happen in May uh with

the inflation reports and maybe they'll

still fight about this bare flag I don't

know can't say but I'm just saying the

this the wind there are there are

changes a drift you know with these

interventions and it's across the board

uh so I think May will still be

interesting uh but I think it's still

lining up for kind of a bu to dip

situation from from our perspective

anyways this just my general thoughts

thought you might find that helpful if

you want to join us on a journey uh in

more detail and our directional view on

things and how we're approaching this in

terms of alerts and so forth you're

welcome to join us Northman Trader

Market services and you can see what

we're all about there hope that's

helpful you guys take care let's see how

this week negotiates itself through

um but so far the prospect for a bear

trap is in indeed there and I think

Bears really need to assert themselves

very very quickly because if if they

don't I think The Jig Is up again and

new Highs are coming all right you guys

take care bye