Webinar: Atomic Networks to Identify Product-Market Fit by Google PM, Neha Bansal

Summary

このスクリプトでは、Googleのプロダクトマネージャーであるネーハ・ブンソが、新しいプロダクトを市場に投入し、市場フィットを見つけるプロセスについて語っています。アンドリュー・チェンの書籍「コールドスタート問題」に触発され、ビジネスの様々なステージを説明するコールドスタート理論を紹介します。プロダクトが成長し、ネットワーク効果を活用するために必要な5つのステージ：コールドスタート、ティッピングポイント、脱出速度、天井、そして堀に至るプロセスが説明されています。特に、最初のステージを解決するためには、安定し、自己完結的であり、独自で成長できる「アトミックネットワーク」を構築することが肝心です。Facebook、Uber、Airbnb、Slackなどの企業が、それぞれの市場フィットを見つけるためにアトミックネットワークをどのように特定し、構築したかについて具体例を挙げています。また、アトミックネットワークの定義、魔法のような瞬間を作り出す方法、そしてその成功を測定する指標についても語っています。最後に、市場フィットを見つけたら、その成功のブループリントを記録し、繰り返し適用し、成長を続けることを促しています。

Takeaways

• 🚀 **スタートアップの初期段階で重要なのは、アトミックネットワークの構築です** - これは自ら成長し、持続可能なユーザーネットワークを意味します。
• 🎯 **アトミックネットワークとは、最も小さな安定したネットワーク** であり、それを特定し、構築することが製品が市場でのフィットを見つけるための鍵です。
• 💡 **製品市場フィットを見つけるためには、特定のネットワークを最小限に抑える必要があります** - これにより、問題の根本原因を分析し、迅速に対応することが可能になります。
• 📚 **アンドリュー・チェンの書籍「コールドスタート問題」** をお勧めします。ゼロから一つのプロセスを理解し、実践するための枠組みを提供しています。
• 🌐 **ネットワークの「硬い側」と「柔かい側」** を理解し、硬い側のユーザーに適切な価値提案を提供することが重要です。
• 🔍 **問題を解決するためには、ユーザーの動機を深く理解する必要があります**。これにより、ユーザーの多様な視点を理解し、サービスを提供することが容易になります。
• 📈 **魔法の瞬間を定義し、それを測定することが成功の鍵です**。これにより、ユーザーがあなたの製品とネットワークに引き付けられる理由が明確になります。
• 📊 **製品市場フィットの指標として、リテンション率や有機的な獲得数が挙げられます**。これらは、製品が市場でフィットしているかどうかを判断するのに役立ちます。
• 🚨 **多くのスタートアップが失敗する理由は、小さく限定されたネットワークにコミットするのが困難だからです**。これは、メンタルシフトと繰り返しの拒絶に関連しています。
• 📝 **成功したプレイブックを記録し、それを繰り返すことで、より迅速に成長し、市場でのフィットを見つけることができます**。
• 🔗 **アトミックネットワークを特定し、そのユーザーグループ、意図、場所、時間を具体的に定義することが、プロジェクトの成功に不可欠です**。
• 🌟 **最終的に、アトミックネットワークが製品市場フィットを見つけるための最も重要な要素であると結論づけます**。

Q & A

ネーハー・ブンソがGoogleのどのチームに所属しているのですか？

ネーハー・ブンソは、Google内の早期段階のチームに所属しています。

アンドリュー・チェンの書籍「コールドスタート問題」は何について説明していますか？

「コールドスタート問題」は、ビジネスや製品がゼロから始めてネットワーク効果を最大限に活用するための、様々な段階を考えるためのフレームワークを紹介しています。

製品が市場フィットを見つけるためには、何を解決する必要がありますか？

製品が市場フィットを見つけるためには、コールドスタート問題を解決する必要があります。これには、安定し、自己完結的で、持続可能なユーザーネットワークを構築することが含まれます。

Facebookが最初に成功したアトミックネットワークは何でしたか？

Facebookの最初のアトミックネットワークは、大学コミュニティでした。ハーバード大学で最初の成功を収め、次にボストン地域の学校、そしてアイビーリーグの他の大学に急速に拡大しました。

Airbnbのアトミックネットワークは何でしたか？

Airbnbのアトミックネットワークは、ホテル室が不足している都市で開催される大型カンファレンスに参加する旅行者でした。

アトミックネットワークを構築するために最初にすべきことは何ですか？

アトミックネットワークを構築する最初のステップは、ネットワークの「硬い側」を特定することです。これは、過剰な価値を創造し、その結果、過剰の力を持つ少数のユーザーを意味します。

「マジックモーメント」とは何を意味しますか？

「マジックモーメント」とは、ユーザーが製品やサービスを通じて非常に魅力的で印象的な瞬間を経験するものです。これは、ユーザーの忠誠度を高めるために重要なものです。

製品市場フィットが見られるかどうかを測定する指標は何ですか？

製品市場フィットが見られるかどうかを測定する一般的な指標は、リテンション率です。これには、日ごとのアクティブユーザーと月ごとのアクティブユーザーの比率、有機種アクティブユーザーの獲得、初日のリテンションなどが含まれます。

スタートアップが製品市場フィットを見つけることができない理由は何ですか？

スタートアップが製品市場フィットを見つけられない理由として、小さく限定したアトミックネットワークにのみコミットすることの難しさ、必要な機能以外のアイデアに対して何度も「いいえ」と言わなければならず、チームにプロジェクトの範囲を定義し続ける必要があるなどが挙げられます。

アトミックネットワークに成功した後、次にすべきことは何ですか？

アトミックネットワークに成功した後、その成功のプレイブックを記録し、何が機能したか、何が機能しなかったか、そして問題を解決するために何をしたかを書き記します。その後、同じプレイブックを使って繰り返し適用し、さらに迅速に進むことができます。

自分のプロジェクトに戻ったとき、何をすべきですか？

自分のプロジェクトに戻ったとき、アトミックネットワークの定義を書き記すべきです。たとえば、ユーザーグループは誰ですか、意図、場所、時間は何ですか。具体的には、CHASE銀行の製品チームがQ2サイクルを計画する際に使用するプロジェクト管理アプリケーションのアトミックネットワークが考えられます。

Outlines

00:00

😀 个人简介与冷启动问题介绍

Neha Bunso，拥有超过十年产品经验的Google产品经理，分享了她如何通过阅读Andrew Chen的《冷启动问题》来理解产品从零到一的过程。她强调了冷启动理论，该理论提出了产品团队必须经历的五个阶段：冷启动、引爆点、逃逸速度、触顶和护城河。Neha解释了解决冷启动问题的重要性，并通过Facebook、Uber、Airbnb和Slack等公司的例子，说明了如何通过建立一个稳定、参与度高且能自我维持的最小用户网络来找到产品市场契合点。

05:02

🤔 构建原子网络的步骤

为了构建一个成功的原子网络，Neha提出了三个步骤：首先，确定网络的硬端，即那些创造不成比例价值的用户群体；其次，解决这些硬端用户的难题，深入了解他们的动机，并开发一个简单易用且能解决他们问题的产品；最后，忽略市场规模、可扩展性或盈利模式等问题，专注于让一小部分用户粘附于产品。她通过HomeJoy和Google的Shopping for Businesses等案例，展示了如何通过专注于一个细分市场来找到产品市场契合点。

10:05

: 确定魔法时刻和零时刻

Neha解释了如何通过定义和消除零时刻（即网络中断的时刻）来找到并创造魔法时刻。她强调了专注于为原子网络创造魔法时刻的重要性，并提供了衡量产品市场契合度的常用指标，如消费者产品的日活跃用户与月活跃用户比率，以及SaaS产品的转化率和客户获取成本等。她鼓励团队在找到产品市场契合点后，记录成功策略，并重复这一过程，直到达到引爆点。

15:07

📝 记录成功策略并扩展

Neha分享了她个人在构建B2B市场时的经历，强调了专注于一个小的原子网络所需的自我控制和承诺。她讨论了团队成员如何需要不断提醒自己，目前的专注只是一个开始，未来将会扩展到更广阔的市场。她建议一旦找到产品市场契合点，就要记录成功策略，然后重复这一过程，以便更快地扩展。她还鼓励听众明确定义自己的原子网络，并尽可能具体地描述用户群体、意图、地点和时间。

Keywords

💡アトミックネットワーク (Atomic Network)

アトミックネットワークとは、安定して自己完結的に成長できる最小のユーザーネットワークを指します。ビデオのテーマに関連して、製品が市場でのフィットを見つけるためには、まずアトミックネットワークを特定し、そのネットワークのユーザーに適した価値提案を提供することが重要です。例えば、Facebookは大学コミュニティを、Airbnbはホテル不足を抱える都市の旅行者を、Slackは企業内のチームをアトミックネットワークとして特定しました。

💡コールドスタート問題 (Cold Start Problem)

コールドスタート問題は、新規製品が市場投入時に直面する問題を指し、特にネットワーク効果を持つビジネスで顕著です。ビデオでは、コールドスタート問題を解決することで製品が市場でのフィットを見つけ、その後成長を続けることができると説明されています。コールドスタート問題を解決する鍵は、アトミックネットワークを見つけることにあります。

💡ティッピングポイント (Tipping Point)

ティッピングポイントは、製品が市場で急激な成長を遂げる瞬間を指します。ビデオでは、コールドスタート問題を解決し、アトミックネットワークが安定した状態に達した後に、製品がティッピングポイントに達すると説明されています。これにより、製品はより広範な市場での成長を遂げることができます。

💡エスケープベロシティ (Escape Velocity)

エスケープベロシティは、製品が市場で成長し続けるための勢いを獲得した状態を指します。ビデオでは、ティッピングポイントを超えてエスケープベロシティに達することで、製品は自己完結的に成長し続けることができると説明されています。

💡ネットワーク効果 (Network Effects)

ネットワーク効果とは、製品やサービスが使用する人の数が増むにつれてその価値が増すことを指します。ビデオの内容では、ネットワーク効果を最大限に活用するために、製品チームが異なる段階を経て成熟する必要があると説明されています。

💡マーケットフィット (Product Market Fit)

マーケットフィットとは、製品が市場のニーズに合致し、顧客の支持を獲得している状態を指します。ビデオでは、アトミックネットワークを見つけることで製品が市場フィットを見つけ、その後の成長を続けることができると説明されています。

💡マジックモメント (Magic Moments)

マジックモメントとは、ユーザーが製品を使用する際に感じる驚きや満足感の瞬間を指します。ビデオでは、アトミックネットワークのユーザーに対してマジックモメントを提供することが、製品の市場フィットを見つける鍵であると説明されています。

💡ゼロモーメント (Zero Moments)

ゼロモーメントとは、製品が期待通りの機能を果たさない瞬間を指します。ビデオでは、ゼロモーメントを特定し、問題を解決することで、製品のマジックモメントを提供し、市場フィットを達成することができると説明されています。

💡スケーラビリティ (Scalability)

スケーラビリティとは、製品やサービスが需要の増加に応じて拡張できる性質を指します。ビデオでは、スケーラビリティに焦点を当てることなく、まずアトミックネットワークのユーザーに焦点を当てることが、製品の市場フィットを見つけるための鍵であると説明されています。

💡プレイブック (Playbook)

プレイブックとは、成功した戦略や方法論を文書化したものを指します。ビデオでは、アトミックネットワークを見つけて市場フィットを達成した後、その成功を記録し、プレイブックを作成することで、同じ戦略を繰り返し適用し、さらに迅速に成長することができると説明されています。

💡コミットメント (Commitment)

コミットメントとは、決意や責任を意味する言葉で、ビデオの内容では、アトミックネットワークに焦点を当て、必要な機能のみを構築するという意思決定を指します。ビデオでは、コミットメントが市場フィットを見つける上で最も困難な部分であり、製品の成功に不可欠であると説明されています。

Highlights

Neha Bunso, a product expert with over a decade of experience, shares insights on starting products from scratch.

She emphasizes that her opinions are personal and not representative of Google.

Neha's journey at Google involved understanding how to get a new product off the ground and find product-market fit.

Andrew Chen's book 'The Cold Start Problem' provided a framework for Neha to take products from zero to one.

The Cold Start Theory outlines five stages of business development: cold start, tipping point, escape velocity, hitting the ceiling, and finding a moat.

Identifying and building an atomic network is crucial for solving the cold start problem.

Facebook's atomic network started with college communities, specifically Harvard University.

Uber's initial success was with 5 PM commuters at the San Francisco Caltrain station.

Airbnb's atomic network were travelers attending conferences that caused hotel room shortages.

Slack's atomic network began with teams within a company, focusing on three people to start.

Bank of America launched its first credit card in Fresno, California, targeting a specific market with existing relationships.

HomeJoy initially focused on matching locksmiths to homeowners before expanding to other services.

Google's shopping for businesses pivoted to focus on the plumbing vertical to find initial traction.

Circles, a professional network, found its atomic network by focusing on law firms due to their deep pockets and poor digital marketing skills.

Starting small allows for a deeper analysis of what's not working and direct feedback from users.

To build an atomic network, identify the hard side of the network, solve hard problems for them, and develop a simple, killer product.

Measuring magic moments and defining zero moments are key to achieving product-market fit.

Retention is a critical metric for assessing product-market fit, with benchmarks provided for consumer and SaaS products.

Many startups fail to find product-market fit due to a lack of commitment to a focused atomic network.

Documenting a success playbook and repeating the process can lead to rapid expansion and reaching a tipping point.

Neha recommends defining your atomic network specifically, including user group, intent, location, and time.

The importance of self-control and commitment to building only for the needs of the atomic network is highlighted.

Transcripts

hello everybody thank you so much for

tuning in today

before we get started quick disclaimer

everything I share here is my personal

opinion and Google is not responsible

for any content opinions expressed by me

content used is fully non-confidential

with that out of the way a little bit

about me I am Neha bunso and I have been

in product for more than a decade you

can find all the boring details on

LinkedIn the interesting part is that

about a year ago I moved to an early

stage team within Google so at this

point my Google product along with a few

startups that I had invested in were

trying to get their brand new product

off the ground

that's when I started reading books

meeting people to understand how do you

get a product off the ground and find

product Market fit in that Journey a

senior director at Google recommended

Andrew Chen's book the cold start

problem

it was such an enlighting moment because

it disentangled many theoretical

Concepts and gave me a framework for

taking things from zero to one and

that's what I'm here to share with you

all today

let's make sure you are also the right

uh you're here for the right reasons you

are all early stage Founders or product

owners product managers at various sized

companies looking to start something new

literally from a blank slate

with that let's start let's dive into

the cold start Theory

Andrew Chen introduced this Theory as a

framework to think about different

stages of a business

cold start Theory lays out a series of

stages that every product team must

Traverse to fully harness the power of

network effects

the primary five stages are first is the

cold start once you solve the cold start

problem you hit a Tipping Point

post that you find an escape velocity

hitting the ceiling and once you hit the

ceiling you find a moat and which you

continue to maintain

I do wish that the framework had a

different name because it's the same

name as the first stage of the whole

Theory which could be a bit confusing

but never mind for our purpose we will

focus on what needs to happen to go from

the first stage of the whole from the

first stage to the second stage visually

we will talk about this Red Dot

which needs to happen somewhere on the

lower side of this graph meaning you

need to solve the cold start problem to

find product Market fit and then you can

grow and grow until you hit the Tipping

Point

so how do you solve the cold start

problem

well that's the first uh well the first

step to solving the cold start problem

is identifying and building an atomic

Network

a network of users which is stable

engaged and can self-sustain Andrew

defines it as the smallest possible

Network that is stable and can grow on

its own once you have such a network you

have found a product Market fit

let's crystallize this concept with some

examples

any guesses on how Facebook first got

started

well Facebook Sports Atomic network was

College communities the first they first

got success at Harvard University where

Mark was and then expanded rapidly

moving to other Boston area schools and

rest of the ivy league that's bringing

uh let's take another example of uber

Uber started with 5 PM commuters at San

Francisco Caltrain station at 4th and

King Street I absolutely love the

specificity here

with Airbnb their atomic network was

Travelers attending conferences that

cause shortage of hotels hotel rooms in

that city which meant large conferences

another fun example is slack Slack's

Atomic network was three people teamed

within a company

each of these products had to identify

what the appropriate Atomic network was

for them in order to find the product

Market fit in its early stage

there's another uh you know fun example

and I think that's my favorite Atomic

Network story which is uh about credit

cards so Bank of America launched is the

company that launched the first credit

card and the city that they chose to do

that was in Fresno California

now you might be wondering why did they

go so narrow and why did they choose

Fresno California

well

on the demand side 35 of Fresno

residents already had some relationship

with the bank

and on the supply side most small

businesses in Fresno downtown did not

have a proprietary charge card which was

a thing back in the 1950s

so with that information they prioritize

they focused on Fresno and then on one

specific day the credit cards arrived in

the mailbox of 60 000 Fresno residents

no application process ready to use

these residents use the cards at the 300

merchants in Fresno downtown and boom

they got the traction they needed to

approve product Market fit

I hope uh you know I hope you're

enjoying these examples and if you're

not yet convinced let me give you some

lesser known examples but they're very

close to heart for me

first is home Joy homejoy is Kim

spouting's company that focus on

matching professionals like electricians

Carpenters Etc to homeowners when they

started their atomic network was

locksmiths just locksmiths

once they've got product Market fit by

matching locksmiths to homeowners they

expanded to cleaners and electricians

and the rest is history they proved

product Market fit again and again and

eventually got acquired by Google to

become the foundation of the Google

local Services product

another fun example is Google's shopping

for businesses this is my project which

is very close to my heart because I

worked on it so we started with building

a Marketplace for everyone everyone

being a business that needs to buy

something electricals Plumbing cleaning

material handling arborists lawyers

retailers

obviously not surprisingly initially we

didn't see any traction

that's when we said okay we're doing

this wrong so we pivoted to focus just

on one vertical at that time we chose

Plumbing for a variety of reasons and

suddenly numbers started looking good

I'll share one final example with you of

circles

circles were started by a very good

friend and uh the vision early on was

they wanted to build Tick Tock for

LinkedIn professionals

turns out this was too broad after lots

of iterations the team accepted that

they need to focus find their atomic

Network

they decided to focus on law firms as an

atomic Network because turns out that

they have Deep Pockets and horrible

digital marketing skills

as I was going on and on about these

examples with a good friend Paul gibell

by the way he hosts an amazing podcast

called Product momentum he asked me that

why are you talking about going small

when everyone talks about scale like why

go small

so in 2010 I read an essay by Chris

Dixon he's a partner at and recent

Horowitz he wrote an essay titled the

next big thing will start out looking

like a toy when he talks about the

disruptive technology Theory which says

that disruptive Technologies are

dismissed as toys because when they are

first launched they undershoot user

needs for example the first telephone

could only carry voices a mile or two

the leading Telco of the time Western

Union passed on acquiring the phone

because they didn't see how it could

possibly be useful to businesses and

railroads their primary customers

what they failed to anticipate was how

rapidly telephone technology and

infrastructure would improve

the same was true of how Mainframe

companies viewed the PC and how modern

telecon companies built Skype

Andrew extends this into target audience

the next big thing will start out

looking like it's for a niche Network

but the questions the remains why go

small

well the answer is that the more user

you need the harder it is to create

something that's why starting off with a

group of users has that is small allows

you to analyze root causes of what's not

working you can pick up the phone and

call the user and ask like hey why

aren't you signing up what's stopping

you from doing that help me understand

but imagine doing that if you launch

something to everybody whom would you

talk to First

okay so with that I hope we're all

aligned on the power of the atomic

networks and what is it and why should

we focus on that the next question is

how do you build such an atomic Network

I'm going to try to summarize that in

three steps first step is identify the

hard side of the network

this is the these are the minority of

the users that create disproportionate

value and as a result have

disproportionate power

for example content creators for social

network drive us for Uber Developers for

app store managers that create documents

and projects for workspace apps for

marketplaces it would be sellers for

Wikipedia it would be volunteers who

write all the articles

this is the hard site these are the hard

side of the network

identify your hard side and once you

have done that solve hard problems for

this hard side of the users you have to

think about a lot of questions such as

what is the unique value proposition for

this side how will they use the product

how do they first hear about your

product and in what context why will

they come back more frequently and

become more engaged what makes them

sticky to their Network such that when a

new network emerges they will retain on

your product

these are difficult answers and require

a deep understanding of the motivations

of your users

understanding these diverse points of

view make it easier to serve them

and finally develop a simple to use

killer product that solves the problem

and ultimately deliver a magic moment to

these users remember your product should

not be fully featured because you want

it to be a dead simple value proposition

while you're doing all this ignore all

questions around what is the market size

how scalable is your idea or how will

you monetize it Etc your focus should be

on getting traction with your Atomic

Network use growth hacks do whatever it

takes to get the small group of users

sticky

so yeah when I say small how small am I

really talking about

studying all the examples I have I'd say

maybe 100 users at a specific Moment In

Time create Magic Moment for these users

uh special for Consumer products

now let's say you have already done this

how do you know if you have succeeded in

creating those magic moments for your

Atomic Network

well Magic Moment is a nice concept but

it would be even more useful if you

could measure it the best way to do this

might be even more surprising

so you start with the opposite of Magic

the moments where the network was broken

down and then starts solving the problem

from there

first Define your zero moments

for example when Uber started at the

Caltrain station they gave their drivers

and coordinators an app I think it was

called Starcraft that recorded the right

completion so anytime a rider didn't

match with a driver it was recorded as a

zero they continuously iterated to

completely eliminate these zero moments

so Define your zero moments monitor them

and finally get them down to zero

and that's how my friends product Market

fit is achieved when a product starts

generating magical moments with minimal

zeros you can claim to have found

product Market fit

well I know we're all uh data hungry

people here so let's define this in

commonly used metrics in our world

typically the best metric for pmf would

be retention which you would analyze

using time-based cohorts

um I was able to find some interesting

benchmarks as well for Consumer and SAS

products so let's go over those quickly

for Consumer products you would want to

see a daily active user to monthly

active user ratio of 25 and above a

world-class leading demo would be over

50 percent

there's a certain minimum for organic

acquisition so you would want to see

hundreds if not thousands of signups per

day

in terms of retention day one retention

should be at least 30 percent 70 plus

would be top-notch

for SAS products you would look at these

engagement metrics and also some

additional monetization metrics such as

five percent conversion rate when you

when your user goes from free to paid

the three times CPA to LGB ratio monthly

churn should be less than two percent

and there should be a clear path to 100

000 of monthly recurring Revenue

I hope that helps um

now obviously this all seems very clear

so why do many startup projects and

companies fail to find product Market

fit

well from my personal experience the

hardest thing about going so small is to

commit

in my product where

I was building a B2B Marketplace

we chose to focus on Plumbing now that

was scary for the merchant onboarding

team initially because they felt that

they will not be able to find enough

companies that wants to sell Plumbing

products

it's always a hard mindset shift

also commitment involved saying no many

many times for every feature idea I had

I would have to think that do plumbing

businesses uh would they need this if no

I'm not building it right now and doing

that was absolutely difficult

and finally in a team setup constantly

reminding the team that this is just the

first leg we will go beyond this I would

be asked all the time so are we now a

plumbing Marketplace and then you would

uh you have you are the one who has to

remind the team that this is just where

we're getting started we will be going

Beyond

so um in a nutshell I think having a lot

of self-control and commitment to only

build for what is needed by that small

atomic network is the hardest part

so

let's say you found product Market fit

in your first atomic Network so what's

next

well

I suggest that you document your success

Playbook write down what worked for you

and what did not and what did you do to

fix those problems

once you've done that you rinse and

repeat do it again and again

going back to the Uber example Uber

found their product Market fit at the

Caltrain station at 4th and King Street

once they did that they used the same

Playbook to expand to nearby stations

and eventually to the whole of San

Francisco city and the rest of Bay Area

and the rest of the world

doing writing down your playbook helps

you rinse and repeat and move at a much

faster pace

and you keep doing this until you hit

your Tipping Point

if there is one thing I want you to take

away from today it is this slide

when you get back to work on your sort

of project write down the definition of

your Atomic Network for example who is

your user group what is the intent in

location and time

so let's say if you are a project

management application your Atomic

Network could be a product team at Chase

Bank who wants to plan for let's say the

Q2 cycle right be as specific as you can

with that thank you so much everyone for

tuning in if you're interested in

hearing more from me you are welcome to

sign up for my newsletter and follow me

on LinkedIn also I highly recommend this

book from Andrew Chen called the cold

start problem have a great rest of your

week and thanks again

bye

[Music]