【競馬】新しいトーマスの人生。競馬は馬券の買い方が全て。双頭の龍、燕返し?どちらが正解か?京成杯編。

トーマス
28 Jan 202416:43

Summary

TLDRThe transcript is a commentary on Japanese horse racing events. It includes discussions of race favorites, jockeys, horse conditions, track conditions, and betting strategies. There is excitement around certain horses based on past performances, paddock inspections, and stamina assessments. Callers debate strategies like pressing the pace, avoiding being trapped, and predicting bias on different parts of the track. Throughout, there is a lively discussion of the changing race dynamics and emotions around winning bets.

Takeaways

  • 😀 The transcript involves horse race betting and commentary
  • 😮 The commentator provides analysis on the horses and their chances of winning
  • 😠 The commentator expresses frustration when his betting predictions are wrong
  • 😃 The commentator is happy when his betting picks win
  • 🏇 Key factors considered are horse ability, positioning, pace, and course conditions
  • 🤔 The commentator tries to predict how the race will play out based on analysis
  • 💸 Betting strategies like "wheel" bets are used to cover multiple potential outcomes
  • 📉 The commentator laments missed opportunities by not using certain betting strategies
  • ⚖️ Comparisons are made between horses to determine their relative strengths
  • 🎲 The unpredictable nature of racing leads to upsets against the commentator's picks

Q & A

  • What kind of event is being commentated on?

    -A horse racing event.

  • What strategies does the commentator use to analyze the horses?

    -The commentator analyzes the horses based on their physical attributes, abilities, past race performances, paddock inspections, etc.

  • How does the commentator select and bet on horses?

    -The commentator selects favorites based on analysis and often bets on multiple horses using complex betting strategies to cover different possible outcomes.

  • How does the commentator react when his bets lose?

    -The commentator often expresses frustration and criticism of his own betting choices when his bets lose.

  • What tone and style does the commentator use?

    -The commentator uses an enthusiastic, fast-paced tone with some slang and humor.

  • How knowledgeable is the commentator about horse racing?

    -The commentator seems very experienced and knowledgeable about horse racing and betting.

  • What information does the commentator convey about each race?

    -For each race, the commentator provides analysis of the horses, states his bets, describes the race progress and results.

  • Does the commentator provide disclaimers about gambling?

    -No, the video does not seem to contain any disclaimers about responsible gambling.

  • What perspective does the video provide on horse racing?

    -It provides an in-depth perspective of a professional horse racing commentator and gambler.

  • Who is the target audience for this video?

    -The target audience seems to be experienced horse racing fans and gamblers.

Outlines

00:00

🏇 Race Analysis and Predictions

The speaker begins with a greeting and dives into the analysis of a race in Kyoto, focusing on horse number 8, named Ferofero, highlighting its superior ability compared to other competitors. The discussion includes insights into the horse's paddock appearance, its performance potential on dirt tracks, and the strategic moves by jockey Nishimura, especially his decision to wear a neck warmer, signifying the cold weather's impact on race conditions. The speaker also mentions horse number 7 as a potential threat if it manages to outperform expectations. Despite a less-than-ideal start, Ferofero is expected to dominate the race, with a late push securing victory. The narrative is filled with anticipation, strategy, and the thrill of horse racing, emphasizing the meticulous analysis behind betting choices.

05:01

🔄 Race Dynamics and Outcome

This segment delves into the complexities of race strategies and the unpredictability of outcomes, focusing on a different race scenario. It discusses the challenges faced by horses in upgraded races, particularly those starting from extreme positions or trapped in the deeper parts of the track, which significantly affects their performance. The narrator provides a detailed account of how certain track conditions, like bad ground or a challenging course layout, can lead to unexpected results, emphasizing the stamina drain on horses and the tactical mistakes made by jockeys. Despite careful analysis and predictions, the race results defy expectations, highlighting the unpredictable nature of horse racing and the factors that can lead to surprising outcomes.

10:05

📊 Strategic Betting and Race Predictions

In this narrative, the speaker outlines their betting strategy and predictions for upcoming races, emphasizing the analytical approach to selecting horses based on various factors, including physical condition, track compatibility, and past performances. The discussion extends to the challenges of predicting outcomes in races with mixed track conditions and the potential for upsets by underdogs. Special attention is given to horses suited for specific track conditions and the speaker's confidence in their selected bets, despite the inherent unpredictability of racing outcomes. The segment underscores the excitement and complexity of horse racing betting, where strategic analysis and intuition play crucial roles.

15:08

🔍 Analysis of Race Results and Reflections

The final segment focuses on the aftermath of the races, analyzing the outcomes and reflecting on the predictions made. The speaker expresses frustration and surprise at the unexpected results, questioning the decisions made during the betting process. Despite meticulous analysis and strategic bets, the races conclude with unforeseen victories and placements, leading to a mix of disappointment and astonishment at the unpredictability of horse racing. This narrative captures the highs and lows of betting, the thrill of the race, and the humbling experience of witnessing the unpredictable nature of sports outcomes.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡競馬

Horse racing is the central theme of this video. The script mainly consists of the narrator commentating on various horse races, analyzing the horses and their abilities, and making predictions. Horse racing terminology like レース (race), 馬 (horse), 騎手 (jockey) appears throughout.

💡馬券

Betting on horse races using tickets or 'bets' is a key part of horse racing. The narrator refers to buying tickets (馬券を買う) on certain horses and getting frustrated when his bets lose.

💡予想

The narrator makes predictions and analyses (予想) about which horses will win each race based on factors like horse ability, jockey, track conditions etc. Making accurate race predictions is a skill in horse racing betting.

💡勝ち馬

The winning horse (勝ち馬) in each race is the focal point. The narrator celebrates when his predicted winning horse succeeds and gets upset when it loses unexpectedly.

💡馬体

The physical build and condition of the horses (馬体) is analyzed by the narrator as a factor for race predictions. For example, he notes when a horse has excellent muscle tone or a strong physique.

💡パドック

The paddock area where horses are walked before a race is mentioned repeatedly. The narrator observes the horses in the paddock to gauge their energy levels and condition.

💡騎手

The jockey or rider of each horse (騎手) is noted when analyzing race contenders. The skills and experience of jockeys like 西村, 松山 play a role in the narrator's race predictions.

💡コース

The race course layout (コース) and conditions are discussed as factors that can advantage certain horses over others based on running style and preferences.

💡馬券の買い方

The narrator explains his betting strategies (馬券の買い方) for some races, like buying multiple combinations of his top picks to increase winning chances.

💡レース展開

How each race unfolds (レース展開) with the leading horses, positioning, pace etc is narrated blow-by-blow by the narrator as it progresses.

Highlights

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They proposed a method to make deep reinforcement learning more sample-efficient by leveraging model-based planning.

A major contribution was an interpretable model revealing insights into how neural networks perform visual recognition.

The authors presented a novel technique for few-shot classification through metric learning that surpasses prior approaches.

They devised an original deep generative model for controllable text generation with state-of-the-art performance.

A key finding was that increasing dataset size and model capacity beyond current standards leads to significant gains.

The paper introduced an influential framework for using deep reinforcement learning in robotics applications.

They proposed innovative techniques to improve safety and reliability when deploying AI systems in the real world.

Transcripts

play00:01

[音楽]

play00:03

[拍手]

play00:03

[音楽]

play00:05

[拍手]

play00:05

[音楽]

play00:16

はいおはようございます京都1レースです

play00:18

ねえ本目8番のフェロフェロなんだこれ

play00:23

フェロニエル争ですはい8番ですね

play00:29

キャロットのです

play00:32

西村騎これねネックウォーマーしてる西村

play00:35

騎はやっぱり冬場では買っておかないと

play00:38

いけないですよね単勝グリグリですけどま

play00:41

能力的にも抜けてると思いますね他はもう

play00:45

大した馬がいないんでパドックも超抜群

play00:48

でしたから負ける要素がはきしってない

play00:50

ですねはいえっとねあそうね7番だけ

play00:54

ちょっとね初ダートの馬でま負けるとし

play00:57

たらこの馬なんですけどま西村さすがです

play01:00

よね若手のホープこの馬がやっぱり楽に

play01:04

逃げさせてはいけないと見てマークしに

play01:06

行きましたえ馬の能力で言えば8番の方が

play01:09

え抜けてると思いますパドックも見ました

play01:12

し馬体も見ましたけどダート適正友の張ま

play01:15

筋肉量全てこのあのクラスは上ですね

play01:20

そしてこの7番を潰しに行くこの気場です

play01:24

よスタートそこまで良くはなかったです

play01:26

けどもう極的に出して7番ライル

play01:33

はいもうこれは勝ち確定7番を早めにして

play01:36

もう押切りですお願いし

play01:41

ますいい

play01:47

ですはいもう楽ですねこれは勝確定

play01:51

ですでし

play01:52

[音楽]

play01:58

play02:22

あんなに完璧なでも勝て

play02:28

ない強いの聞いてない

play02:32

[音楽]

play02:49

よローレよし頼むぞうん出遅れんなスタ

play02:57

よし番

play03:06

大丈夫でしょこれさすが

play03:10

に前走だって出遅れてあんなに押して押し

play03:13

て走ってたからで5番かかってる5番

play03:16

かかっ

play03:20

てる5番引っかかってる

play03:22

よ頼む

play03:28

ぞ離れて11番34

play03:33

秒ん

play03:39

だにってんもうこっから

play03:47

るもうてろもう

play03:53

てろうみでってんだよ頼む頼む頼む頼む

play03:57

頼む頼む頼む

play04:00

頼む

play04:02

頼む残せ

play04:05

よああ3着

play04:08

かおめでとうございます良かったよかっ

play04:12

たやっぱピカリ来たじゃんほらピカリ行っ

play04:15

てたじゃん言うたよ

play04:17

な行ってないかさすがとま

play04:22

ちゃん緊張したやっぱみんな買ってると

play04:26

思うとやっぱ緊張しますねみんな買ってる

play04:28

かは知らないけど

play04:32

[音楽]

play04:41

はいえ京都9レースですね本命はえ

play04:44

ドクタードリトルというま9番の馬ですね

play04:47

松山騎手ですけどまパドック見る限りは

play04:51

状態めちゃくちゃいいですしまこの

play04:53

メンバーだったら力が抜けてると思います

play04:57

お願いし

play04:58

ます

play05:00

川田の馬はね1番の馬はやはりちょっと

play05:03

昇級戦でこの極端な枠ですからね内が

play05:07

あんまり伸びない感じがするんです

play05:10

よまこの佐とか園田とかと一緒ですねこの

play05:15

うちの砂の深いところで閉じ込められたら

play05:17

終わりパターンになると思いますよ1番

play05:20

ここから出られないとやっぱり通ってる

play05:22

位置がねババが悪いと通るともスタミナを

play05:25

消費しますここはだと思いますね

play05:32

に坂をってからりコースにま力が抜けてる

play05:37

ですけどねお願いし

play05:41

ます番

play05:43

がいやここ通ってるのきついと思いますよ

play05:52

実まだ負けてるからね

play05:56

今日うん外が伸びる外が絶対伸びる

play06:04

続は

play06:06

パンから直線コースに入りました3番野が

play06:10

先頭スリー1ですが外から10番が一に

play06:14

抜けるそのからは4

play06:23

残り150番の

play06:28

湘マジかこれこんなうち伸びるの聞いて

play06:32

ないんだ

play06:34

けどう2択ミスったなこれ絶対バイアス外

play06:39

だと思ったの

play06:43

にちょっと取り返します他で3着争いは戦

play06:49

[音楽]

play06:58

です

play07:07

え中山9レースですお願いします本命

play07:10

ミルトクレモという馬にしました岩田君が

play07:13

えわざわざ乗りに来てる馬えまこれもまね

play07:17

普通に前走強いですよ士ってうんかなりね

play07:22

あの展開的にもかなり悪かった中3

play07:28

play07:31

play07:33

てやっぱりねここねわざわざ西がね征して

play07:36

くるぐらいだ

play07:37

から思います

play07:40

このて

play07:58

play08:02

play08:05

まし番

play08:21

から

play08:26

[音楽]

play08:28

じゃん

play08:44

え倉メインレースですえ本命これ12番と

play08:48

6番ですね本命12番のスレイマン対抗が

play08:51

6番のフルボートでお願いしますえっとね

play08:55

これね8番のペースセッティングという最

play09:02

このはね1700という距離が長いのと

play09:05

小回りのこのさがないと思いますねこの

play09:08

ワンター向きだと思います

play09:10

よ武蔵のステークスだそれなりに走して

play09:14

ますけどあれはワンタンだったから

play09:18

ね今回はこの1700mのこの小回りコー

play09:22

スっていうのがネックになると思の験値が

play09:25

的に足ないと思い

play09:28

ます

play09:32

はそして展追い込みがんだったら6番の

play09:37

フルボートまこういった展開予想で相当の

play09:40

竜で買いました相当の竜というのはこの頭

play09:44

に2を固定してどちらかがぐったとしても

play09:47

それで拾えるというまそういった馬タン

play09:49

フォーメーション券のことを私は相当の竜

play09:52

と呼んでるん

play09:53

です

play09:58

たい

play10:04

かなり広にってるんで8番これさがない

play10:08

からここで閉じ込められて終わりでしょ

play10:11

多分こっから伸びれないんだからほらまり

play10:14

がでしょほらほらほらほら12来た6番た

play10:18

あ変な

play10:21

[音楽]

play10:23

変はらんだ

play10:26

よらてちょっと待ってなんかさなんか

play10:30

なんか来いなんか8番いら

play10:33

ねああ8買ってないってだから抑えても

play10:37

ないよバカじゃアホだ押さえてもない8番

play10:40

なんで消しちゃったんだ

play10:43

[音楽]

play10:58

play11:01

はいえ日経新春杯ですねお願いします本命

play11:05

は13番のサボナにしましたえまねこれ馬

play11:09

はいいと思いますしステイヤーだと思い

play11:11

ますこのサボナという馬は筋肉室でかなり

play11:15

マッチョな馬体に見えるんですけどまあね

play11:19

あの去年なんかいたボルドグフだっけあの

play11:22

馬に似てるんですよねあのもかなり筋肉な

play11:25

追い込み馬でしたけどテヤでしたよ

play11:27

play11:32

2200あ2400か日2400です

play11:37

ね2400mですけれどもまいいと思い

play11:42

ますお願いし

play11:44

[音楽]

play11:46

ます相手なんですけどやっぱりねこれある

play11:50

情報筋によるとやはり里のグランツがい

play11:53

ことなんですよねそしてブロズも菅でしょ

play11:57

そしてこの馬もね今後ねみになってくと

play12:01

思うんですよ私はということで絶対荒れる

play12:04

と思う荒れると思うん

play12:07

でリビアングラスとあと新緑ですね新緑

play12:11

この辺りが来たらまフォーメーションで

play12:13

買ってるんで

play12:15

ねサボナからもう荒れというそして人気

play12:19

上位3番人気まで全滅というそういう

play12:22

ストーリーを描きましたお願いします

play12:25

もうもうないんで

play12:27

ね団そのうち5番の

play12:31

レッ

play12:36

タイムズから4投目て3番のインレから3

play12:41

投目坂のから下800を切りまし

play12:53

た2番13サナキがい

play12:57

play13:04

もう全部れてた買ってる全部れてん

play13:09

じゃん買ってないんだ

play13:16

よしか来

play13:18

ないブロー勝てねて

play13:26

ねては完全に抜けたうわ勝った着なんだよ

play13:33

これハデ戦だから荒れるんじゃないのその

play13:37

後硬すぎるよ硬すぎて勝ってない勝って

play13:41

ないんだ

play13:43

[音楽]

play13:57

play14:01

え中山11レス形成杯ですね本命15番の

play14:05

ジゴールド対抗14番のダノンデサイえ

play14:09

この15番はゴールド私は新馬線見た時

play14:13

から惚れ込んでいた馬ですね瞬発力が

play14:15

とんでもないんでま

play14:17

クラシックまダービー候補だと思いますよ

play14:21

14番15番そして14番のこのデサとん

play14:25

です

play14:27

けどっ

play14:31

着にはるんじゃないかと思いますえこの新

play14:34

エンペラというからのまああいったねその

play14:38

力の比較で0.1秒差で走れてますから他

play14:40

の路線組よりは能力はあっていいと思う

play14:43

そして15番14番の折り返しで3連えり

play14:48

買ってますり買って

play14:51

ますだから15番最低人気14番みたいな

play14:56

順できて

play14:57

ほしい

play14:59

14番も15番もいますね

play15:04

これあ最低気が来るだけもうあは何が来て

play15:07

もわかんないから何か最低変な馬来るかも

play15:11

しんない

play15:13

からで買うしかないですね

play15:16

もう買ってももうね意味ないんで待値の

play15:20

大きいところに全しまし

play15:27

play15:31

play15:33

をー番が

play15:35

コレ番来たね14内に

play15:46

ある

play15:48

ささ

play15:51

[拍手]

play15:57

ない

play15:59

なんでんでんでん

play16:03

で14番来てんじゃんだ

play16:07

デル相当の竜にすればよかったつばめ返し

play16:11

しちゃった相当の竜にすれば当たる

play16:14

じゃんなんでだよ当たってんのにさ予想は

play16:20

もう

play16:23

[音楽]

play16:27

最悪

play16:31

[音楽]

play16:41