China’s EV sales pass 50% - Toyota Camry & Nissan Sylphy crash 60%

Summary

Wang Chuanfu, CEO of BYD, predicted that electric vehicles (EVs) would reach a 50% market share in China within three months, a forecast that analysts doubted. However, recent data shows that new energy vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars, have hit a 50.4% sales rate, a 30% growth from the previous year. This surge in EV sales has outpaced the overall car market, which declined by 11%. The Chinese government's continued incentives for EV production have contributed to this growth, contrasting with slowing EV sales in the US and Europe. The Economist Intelligence Unit had predicted a 50% EV market share by 2028, but BYD's CEO's prediction has proven more accurate. This shift towards EVs is not only driving innovation in battery technology but also significantly improving air quality in Chinese cities, offering a cleaner and more sustainable future for the automotive industry.

Takeaways

• 🚗 Wang Shan Fu, the CEO of BYD, predicted that electric vehicles (EVs) would reach a 50% market share in China within 3 months, which analysts disputed but has now been proven accurate.
• 📈 In the first two weeks of April, new energy vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars, hit a 50.4% market share in China, a growth of over 30% compared to the same period last year.
• 🔋 Approximately 30% of the new energy vehicles sold are fully electric, while the remaining 20% are plug-in hybrids, which are often used as fully electric vehicles in China.
• 📉 Despite an overall decline in car sales in China by 11%, EV sales have grown by 32% year-over-year, indicating a significant shift in market preference.
• 🌍 The Chinese government continues to incentivize EV production to improve air quality and support the growth of the domestic automotive industry.
• 🏆 China's EV sales are outpacing those of Europe and the United States, where growth has slowed or declined due to the end of incentives.
• 🔮 Predictions from the Economist Intelligence Unit suggested that new energy vehicles would not surpass 50% of sales until 2028, but this milestone has been reached earlier than expected.
• 🚀 The trend of increasing EV sales is supported by wholesale sales rates, which stood at 50.2% during the period in question.
• 📊 Legacy automakers are facing challenges as their sales in China decline, with some even declaring bankruptcy, while EV manufacturers are gaining market share.
• 💡 Innovations in battery technology, such as CATL's lithium iron phosphate battery and BYD's blade battery, are driving the future of electric vehicles with faster charging and higher energy density.
• 🌳 The shift to electric vehicles is contributing to improved air quality in Chinese cities, offering a better quality of life for residents.

Q & A

What did Wang Shan Fu, the CEO of BYD, predict about the electric car market in China?

Wang Shan Fu predicted that electric cars would hit more than 50% of the car market in China within 3 months.

What was the general consensus among analysts regarding the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China?

The analysts disagreed with Wang Shan Fu's prediction, stating that EVs wouldn't reach 50% penetration in China until possibly 2028.

What was the Chinese government's stance on the timeline for electric vehicles to reach 50% market share?

The Chinese government aimed for electric vehicles to reach 50% market share by 2025 or 2026.

What was the recent growth rate in electric vehicle sales in China?

Electric vehicle sales in China recently hit a 50.4% market share, which represents a growth of more than 30% compared to the same month in the previous year.

What percentage of the 50.4% new energy vehicle sales were fully electric and what percentage were plug-in hybrids?

About 30% of the new energy vehicle sales were fully electric, and about 20% were plug-in hybrids.

How did retail sales of passenger cars in China compare year-over-year?

Retail sales of passenger cars in China were down 11% year-over-year, but electric vehicle sales grew by 32% year-over-year.

What has been the impact of continued incentives for electric vehicles in China?

The continued incentives for electric vehicles in China have contributed to their growth in market share and have encouraged more production of EVs.

What was the Economist Intelligence Unit's prediction for new energy vehicle sales in China by 2028?

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that new energy vehicles would make up over half of sales in China by 2028.

What is the projected sales figure for new energy vehicles in China for the current year?

The projected sales figure for new energy vehicles in China for the current year is around 12 to 13 million.

What is the estimated percentage of fully electric vehicles sold worldwide this year, including China?

It is estimated that between 15 to 20% of all vehicles sold worldwide this year will be fully electric.

How have the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles been affected in China?

Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles are declining in China, with significant drops reported for brands like Toyota Camry and Volkswagen Levita.

What is the positive impact of the shift to electric vehicles on air quality in China?

The shift to electric vehicles is contributing to improved air quality in China, particularly in heavily polluted cities like Beijing.

Outlines

00:00

🚗 CEO Predictions and EV Market Growth in China

Wang Shan Fu, CEO of BYD, predicted that electric vehicles (EVs) would reach a 50% market share in China within three months. Despite initial skepticism from analysts, who believed this wouldn't happen until 2028, BYD's forecast proved accurate as EV sales hit a 50.4% market share in China. This growth is attributed to a combination of fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, with about 30% being fully electric and 20% plug-in hybrids. The Chinese government's continued incentives for EV production have played a significant role in this growth, contrasting with the slowing down of EV sales in Europe and the United States. The Chinese Passenger Car Association reported a year-over-year increase in EV sales by 32%, even as overall car sales declined by 11%. The Economist Intelligence Unit had previously predicted a 50% market share for new energy vehicles by 2028, but the current trend indicates a higher likelihood of reaching 12 to 13 million sales in China alone this year, with around 7 or 8 million being fully electric vehicles.

05:00

📉 Legacy Automakers and the Rise of EVs in China

The shift towards electric vehicles in China has had a profound impact on legacy automakers, with companies like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan experiencing a decline in sales. Mitsubishi has faced bankruptcy in China, and other EV manufacturers have also struggled. Despite these challenges, the demand for EVs is driving innovation in the industry, with advancements such as the Shen sing battery from CATL and BYD's blade battery, which offers faster charging, higher energy density, and lower costs. Sales for legacy automakers like General Motors and Volkswagen have fallen significantly, while the air quality in Chinese cities is improving due to the adoption of electric vehicles. This shift is not only beneficial for the environment but also for the everyday lives of people living in urban areas.

Keywords

💡Electric Cars

Electric cars, also known as electric vehicles (EVs), are vehicles that are powered by electric motors and batteries rather than internal combustion engines. In the video, the host discusses the significant growth of electric car sales in China, reaching a 50.4% market share within a short period, which is a substantial shift from traditional vehicles.

💡Market Penetration

Market penetration refers to the extent to which an industry or product has become established in the market. The video highlights that electric vehicles have achieved a market penetration rate of over 50% in China, indicating a rapid adoption rate and a significant milestone in the automotive industry.

💡Plug-in Hybrids

Plug-in hybrids are vehicles that combine an internal combustion engine with an electric propulsion system, allowing them to be charged from an external source of electricity. The video mentions that plug-in hybrids constitute about 20% of the new energy vehicle sales in China, contributing to the overall growth of electric mobility.

💡Fully Electric Cars

Fully electric cars, also known as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), are powered solely by electricity stored in batteries. The host points out that fully electric cars make up about 30% of the new energy vehicle sales in China, showcasing a preference for zero-emission vehicles.

💡Year-Over-Year Growth

Year-over-year growth is a financial metric that compares data from the current period with the same period in the previous year. The video script notes a 32% year-over-year growth in EV sales in China, demonstrating the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle market.

💡Incentives

Incentives are financial or other motivational measures offered by governments or organizations to encourage a particular action. The Chinese government's continued incentives for EV production are highlighted as a key factor in the growth of electric vehicle sales, contrasting with the reduction of incentives in other regions.

💡Internal Combustion Engines

Internal combustion engines are engines in which the combustion of a fuel (usually fossil fuel) occurs with an oxidizer in a confined space, creating high-temperature and high-pressure gases that can drive a piston. The video discusses the decline of vehicles with internal combustion engines in China due to the rise of electric vehicles.

💡Air Quality

Air quality refers to the condition of the air in terms of the presence of pollutants and the health risks they pose. The video emphasizes the improvement in air quality in cities like Beijing, largely attributed to the adoption of electric vehicles, which reduce emissions from transportation.

💡Battery Technology

Battery technology pertains to the development and use of batteries to store and provide energy. The video mentions advancements in battery technology, such as the lithium iron phosphate battery from CATL and BYD's blade battery, which are driving the future of electric vehicles by offering faster charging and higher energy density.

💡Legacy Automakers

Legacy automakers are established automobile manufacturers that have traditionally focused on internal combustion engine vehicles. The video discusses the challenges faced by legacy automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen in China, where their sales have declined as the market shifts towards electric vehicles.

💡Bankruptcy

Bankruptcy is a legal process that allows a person or business to eliminate or repay some or all of their outstanding debts. The script refers to several dealerships and manufacturers, particularly those focused on internal combustion vehicles, that have declared bankruptcy as the electric vehicle market grows and the traditional car market contracts.

Highlights

Wang Shan Fu, CEO of BYD, predicted that electric vehicles (EVs) would reach over 50% market share in China within three months.

Analysts disagreed with this prediction, suggesting that EVs would not hit 50% in China until possibly 2028.

The Chinese government's target for EVs to reach 50% market share was set for 2025 or 2026.

EV sales in China have recently hit a 50.4% market share, a growth of over 30% compared to the same month last year.

This growth was observed during the first two weeks of April, with new energy vehicles, including plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars, reaching 50.4% of all sales.

Approximately 30% of new energy vehicles sold were fully electric, and about 20% were plug-in hybrids.

Retail sales for passenger cars in China were down year-over-year, but EVs grew by 32%, taking more market share than ever before.

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that new energy vehicles would make up over half of sales in 2028.

The Chinese Federation of Passenger Cars predicted a 40% market share for EVs this year.

It is estimated that new energy vehicles will reach around 12 to 13 million sales in China for the year.

About 7 or 8 million fully electric car sales are expected in China alone, representing 10% of the entire car market.

Globally, it is projected that 15 to 20% of all vehicles sold this year will be fully electric.

Wholesale sales rates support the trend, with a 50.2% penetration rate observed during the period in question.

Legacy automakers, such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, are facing significant declines in sales in China.

Innovations like CATL's lithium iron phosphate battery and BYD's blade battery are driving the future of electric vehicles.

The BYD blade battery offers 27% higher energy density, is around 30% cheaper, and charges faster than the previous version.

The shift to EVs in China is contributing to improved air quality, particularly in heavily polluted cities like Beijing.

The Chinese government's continued incentives for EV production are supporting the growth and innovation in the sector.

Transcripts

Wang Shan Fu the CEO of byd he made some

comments about the Chinese car industry

he he said that electric cars would hit

more than 50% in China within 3 months

now all the analysts disagree now they

didn't attack him or anything but they

have said you know EVS won't hit 50% in

China this year it won't happen until

probably

2028 the Chinese government said it

would happen in 2025 or 2026

but Well turns out the CEO of by is

smarter than they are at least when it

comes to predicting EV sales hello my

friends welcome to the channel I'm Sam

Evans you're watching the electric

Viking it's great to see you B um the

CEO he has well proven to be somewhat of

an oracle he said within the next 3

months EVS would hit 50% penetration

rate in China and I've got to say b a

big part of the reason why this just

happened and did

EV sales have just hit

50.4% in China That's growth of more

than 30% compared to the same month last

year now I've got to say this with a

caveat it's true that there was I think

two weeks in March where ev's hit 48%

and now there's two weeks the first two

weeks of April from the 1st of April to

the 14th of April where new energy

Vehicles meing plug-in hybrids and fully

electric cars hit 50.4% of all sales and

that's what the B the B CEO was

referring to when he said that they

would hit 50% of that 50% about 30% are

fully electric and about 20% are plug in

hybrids meaning they can be used as

fully electric cars and generally in

China unlike Europe people do use them

in that way figures from the Chinese

passenger car Association show that

retail sales were actually

56,000 uh that is interestingly down

year-over-year so car sales in China

have been going down pretty quick down

11% overall but EVS have grown by 32%

year-over-year

meaning they've taken more market share

than ever before 50.4% this is a

phenomenal achievement and it it really

does kind of in a way embarrass Europe

and America where EV sales have been

slowing down have been declining in some

I mean EV sales in the United States

went up were up by a couple of percent

this year for the first quarter not much

though when you consider it's a very low

base of only about 9% last year EV sales

in Europe have gone down a little bit

this year because of the end of

incentives incentives as you can see

have not ended in China the Chinese

government's like no no no that's not a

good idea we want clean air in our

cities we want to have our car

manufacturers making more EVS so they've

continued to incentivize EV production

which I think is great it's working The

Economist intelligence unit predicted

that nevs new energy Vehicles would make

up over half of sales in 2028 in 2028

they said it wouldn't happen until then

until 2028 which is what four years from

now the Chinese Federation of Passenger

cars predicted this year they would hit

40% now bu CEO's gone there no that's

not going to happen it's going to be

50% however it seems as though um new

energy vehicles are likely to hit around

12 to 13 million sales this year in

China alone it's probably likely we're

going to see about 7 or 8 million fully

electric car sells just in China That's

10% of the entire car market 10% so I

mean the world will clearly hit a much

higher percentage than 10% this year um

in terms of pure electric car

penetration worldwide because well 10%

of the world's cars will be fully

electric and they'll be sold in China

alone uh that doesn't include you know

all the EVS that will be sold in

Australia Thailand Malaysia you know

southeast Asia Europe the United States

Canada Mexico Brazil etc etc so we're

probably going to see penetration this

year between 15 to 20% of all vehicles

sold worldwide will be fully electric

now yeah clearly this is only 2 weeks I

get that but it's very clear the trend

is here we saw 48% last month there was

a few weeks where it was

40% this month we're seeing

48% um is now being surpassed we're

hitting

50.4 wholesale sales rates support the

trend as well penetration sale for

wholesale was

50.2% during this Peri period wholesale

sales were 534,906

internal combustion manufacturers

primarily Legacy automakers primarily

Toyota Honda Nissan um you know

obviously Mitsubishi's bankrupt in China

now they've already gone um you know who

else we got Jeeps left they went B they

declared bankruptcy in China as well

last year uh we've got some other EV

manufacturers who are not really selling

cars anymore because they've gone

bankrupt this year uh we've got

thousands of dealerships who have

declared bankruptcy over the past what

12 to 18 months but that's the bad I

mean the bad is also that you've got

General Motors Ford and other Legacy

automakers where their sales have

created in China but the positive is

this more and more people are buying EVs

and they're saying you know what we want

good electric cars this is driving

Innovation it's driving you know

production of things like the Shen sing

battery from catl the lithium phosphate

battery that can charge at 550 KW speeds

it's driving things like Innovation with

by then bringing out their blade battery

version to which charges faster and has

27% higher energy density and is cheaper

than the blade battery was a year

ago 27% higher energency

Cheaper by I believe around 30% and

charges faster I mean that's the future

of electric cars and that's why EVS are

growing last year sake General Motors

their sales fell by 15% Honda sales fell

14% um sake Volkswagen fell 8% niss fell

around

25% um Toyota Camry sales have collapsed

by 60% Volkswagen levita sales are down

36% the niss and silie sales from their

sales 3 years ago they are down

70% I mean internal combustion vehicles

are dying in China and it's very very

satisfying to see it happen the other

big positive here guys is yeah I know

you know you and I there's not many

people who watch who are Chinese who

watch this but if you live in China and

you don't have much choice you have to

work in a city there's a lot of

pollution in places like Beijing but

it's improving it's getting better like

California right the air quality is

improving and the primary reason is

electric cars now you don't have much

choice about the air you breathe right

you walk outside you just have to

breathe what's there but this is making

a huge difference to people's everyday

lives thanks for watching