The Future of Immigration in Canada 2024

Summary

In the latest episode of the Canadian Immigration Podcast, hosts Mark Hy and Alicia Bachman discuss significant changes in Canada's immigration landscape, particularly focusing on temporary residence. They highlight Minister Miller's recent speech, which outlines a shift in policy affecting international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers. The hosts delve into the breakdown of temporary resident numbers, noting that international students make up 42%, while the temporary foreign worker program constitutes a surprising 9%. They discuss potential reductions in international student numbers, increased scrutiny on LMIA applications, and the likelihood of further restrictions on spousal open work permits. The podcast also touches on the government's intention to prioritize economic reasons for temporary residence and the possible impact on PNP streams linked to education. Despite the challenges, a silver lining is the promise of more domestic draws for those already in Canada, aiming to transition to permanent residency. Practical advice is offered for those in Canada to maximize their language scores and secure LMIA-backed work permits, emphasizing the importance of acting promptly due to increased competition and processing times.

Takeaways

• 📉 The Canadian government is planning to reduce the number of temporary residents, particularly focusing on international students and work permits, aiming to decrease the temporary resident numbers from 6.2% to 5%.
• 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Minister Miller's recent speech indicates a shift in immigration policy, potentially affecting the future of immigration in Canada, including changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and International Mobility Program.
• 📉 International students make up 42% of temporary residents in Canada, with significant changes expected, including caps on study permits and restrictions on post-graduation work permits for certain programs.
• 🚫 Spouses of students and workers may face new limitations, as there is speculation that open spousal work permits may be restricted to those linked with high-skilled workers.
• 🧐 The government is emphasizing economic rationale for temporary residency, suggesting that future policies will tie temporary residents more closely to labor market needs.
• 🇺🇦 Concerning Ukrainian refugees, the government is expected to support those who have already arrived in Canada but may reconsider further large-scale programs until the situation in Ukraine is resolved.
• 🤔 There is a possibility of more domestic draws for Express Entry and Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) to facilitate the transition of temporary residents to permanent residency.
• 🛂 LMIA validity periods have been reduced from 18 months to 6 months, indicating tighter controls on the recruitment and hiring of foreign workers.
• ⏱️ Processing times for LMIA applications are lengthening, which may affect the self-selection of foreign nationals choosing between job offers in Canada and other countries.
• 🏫 The Minister has expressed concerns about the quality of education provided to international students and has hinted at further restrictions on schools that do not adhere to higher standards.
• 📚 For those in Canada, maximizing language test scores and acquiring Canadian work experience are crucial for improving their competitiveness for permanent residency.

Q & A

What is the current focus of the Canadian immigration practice?

The current focus is on the various announcements made by Minister Miller, which are expected to significantly impact immigration to Canada, including potential changes to temporary and permanent residence pathways.

What was the main topic of Minister Miller's speech on March 21st?

The speech outlined the government's intentions and rationale for changes in immigration policies, affecting both temporary and permanent residents, and the future direction of immigration in Canada.

What percentage of temporary residents in Canada are international students?

42% of temporary residents in Canada are international students on study permits.

What is the current breakdown of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in Canada?

The Temporary Foreign Worker Program comprises 9% of the total temporary residents in Canada.

How does the government plan to address the number of international students in Canada?

The government intends to reduce the total numbers of international students by at least a third, implementing measures such as increasing the minimum funds required for studying and restricting the number of schools eligible for postgrad work permits.

What changes are being made to spousal work permits for international students?

Spouses of international students are no longer eligible for open spousal work permits unless the principal applicant is pursuing a Masters or PhD or is in certain high-demand professions.

What is the current status of the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) for public-private partnership schools?

As of May 2024, public-private partnership schools will no longer be eligible for PGWPs.

How might the government's approach to immigration impact the upcoming election?

Immigration could become a wedge issue in the election, with the government's changes to immigration policy potentially influencing voter sentiment.

What is the current percentage of temporary residents that are asylum seekers in Canada?

Asylum seekers make up 5% of the current temporary residents in Canada.

How does the government plan to link refugees with the Canadian labor market?

The government is implementing the Economic Mobility Pathway for Refugees (EMP) to connect internationally recognized refugees with employers in Canada, particularly within rural communities.

What is the implication of reducing the validity period of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIA) from 18 months to 6 months?

The reduction in LMIA validity periods means employers must be more precise in their recruitment efforts and that workers must apply for their work permit within a shorter window, or risk losing the opportunity.

What advice is given to those currently in Canada seeking to improve their chances for permanent residency?

Individuals in Canada are advised to learn French, maximize their language test scores, and if their work permit is expiring, to discuss LMIA options with their employers as soon as possible.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Overview of Canadian Immigration Policy Shifts

The podcast begins with hosts Mark Hy and Alicia Bachman discussing the busy and pivotal times in Canadian immigration, particularly with Minister Miller's recent announcements that indicate significant changes. They plan to cover key takeaways for those considering immigrating to Canada or looking to understand their options for permanent and temporary residence. The hosts also touch upon the upcoming election and its potential impact on immigration as a possible wedge issue.

05:02

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Breakdown of Temporary Residents in Canada

The hosts delve into the statistics of temporary residents in Canada, highlighting that 42% are international students, 9% are temporary foreign workers, and 44% fall under the International Mobility Program. They discuss potential changes to spousal work permits, the tightening of numbers for those arriving under CET visas or other humanitarian pathways, and the economic rationale behind these shifts. The temporary foreign worker program's small proportion of the total temporary resident numbers is a surprise to the hosts.

10:03

🎓 Impact on International Students and Education

The discussion shifts to the impact on international students, with measures being implemented to reduce their numbers, including increasing the minimum funds required for studying in Canada and restricting postgrad work permits. The hosts mention caps on study permits and the introduction of provincial attestation letters. They also discuss the minister's comments on the need for schools to adapt and focus on programs that contribute to the workforce.

15:03

🤔 Minister's Stance on Immigration and Economy

The hosts highlight the minister's comments on the need for immigration policies to be linked to economic outcomes. They discuss the minister's warnings to graduate schools and the potential for further restrictions if schools do not comply with the new requirements. The minister's focus on reducing the number of temporary residents and the potential effects on the housing market and the economy are also covered.

20:05

🇺🇦 Considerations for Ukrainian Visa Holders

The conversation turns to the situation of Ukrainian visa holders and the possibility of extending their work permits in Canada. The hosts express the need for a balanced approach, considering global commitments and the current pathways available for these individuals to become permanent residents. They also discuss the potential for a separate PR program for Ukrainians, emphasizing the importance of language skills and Canadian work experience.

25:05

🛂 Changes to LMIA Validity and Processing

The hosts discuss the reduction in LMIA validity periods from 18 months to 6 months, which will impact companies' recruitment strategies and the timing of work permit applications. They also cover the slowing down of LMIA processing times and the potential self-selection by foreign nationals choosing between job offers in different countries based on processing speed. Changes to low-wage cap figures for LMIA applications are also mentioned.

30:06

🌱 Potential Economic Mobility Pathway for Refugees

The discussion includes the minister's approach to linking refugee recognition with economic requirements, such as the Economic Mobility Pathway for refugees. The hosts highlight the attempt to reduce the number of asylum seekers in Canada by implementing measures like partial visa requirements for Mexican citizens. They also mention the potential for further restrictions on humanitarian and asylum claims.

35:08

🔍 Focus on Economic Outcomes in Immigration Policy

The hosts predict that future immigration policy will be closely tied to economic outcomes, with higher scrutiny on LMIA applications and potential fraud enforcement. They discuss the government's intention to reduce the proportion of temporary residents and the impact this could have on processing times for temporary and permanent resident applications. The minister's emphasis on creating a robust pathway to PR for those wishing to settle in Canada long-term is also covered.

📉 Expansion of Immigration Levels Plan

The hosts anticipate further caps and reductions in the immigration levels plan, particularly for international students. They express their belief that the minister may not be satisfied with schools' compliance and predict surprises in the fall regarding levels plans. However, they highlight a potential bright spot with the minister's mention of more domestic draws for those already in Canada, which could benefit those looking to transition to PR.

✅ Practical Advice for Navigating Immigration Changes

The hosts offer practical advice for those in Canada, such as learning French, maximizing language test scores, and starting conversations with employers about LMIA early on. They encourage students to apply for postgrad work permits and open spousal work permits as soon as they are eligible. They also hint at future discussions on increasing competitiveness for Express Entry and suggest considering work outside of Canada if an LMIA is not an option.

📞 Reaching Out for Guidance on Immigration Matters

The hosts conclude by encouraging listeners who are facing challenges or uncertainty in their immigration journey to reach out for consultations. They emphasize their readiness to provide guidance and support as Minister Miller releases more information about the future of immigration in Canada.

Keywords

💡Canadian Immigration

Canadian Immigration refers to the process by which individuals from other countries become residents of Canada. In the context of the video, it is the central theme as the hosts discuss various policies and changes that impact immigration to Canada, including Minister Miller's decisions and their potential effects on future immigration.

💡Temporary Residence

Temporary Residence is a status granted to individuals who are allowed to stay in Canada for a limited period for reasons such as work, study, or travel. The video discusses the breakdown of temporary residence numbers in Canada, including international students, temporary foreign workers, and others, and how these categories may be affected by policy changes.

💡Permanent Residence

Permanent Residence is a status that allows individuals to live and work in Canada indefinitely. It is a coveted goal for many immigrants. The hosts discuss the implications of current immigration policies on obtaining permanent residence, including the potential for more domestic draws for those already in Canada.

💡LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment)

LMIA is a document that an employer in Canada may need to get before hiring a foreign worker. The video highlights changes to LMIA validity periods and the increased scrutiny around LMIA applications due to fraud concerns, which are significant for employers looking to hire foreign workers.

💡International Students

International Students are those who come to Canada to pursue their education. The video discusses the impact of immigration policies on this group, including restrictions on study permits, post-graduation work permits, and the potential for reduced numbers of international students in the future.

💡PNP (Provincial Nominee Program)

PNP is a Canadian immigration program that allows provinces and territories to nominate individuals for permanent residence. The video suggests that there may be tightening on eligibility for certain PNP streams linked to educational programs, which could affect the pathways to permanent residence for international students.

💡Express Entry

Express Entry is an online immigration application system for skilled workers who want to become Canadian permanent residents. The video mentions Express Entry in the context of discussing the competitive nature of obtaining permanent residence and the importance of LMIA for gaining additional points in the system.

💡Spousal Work Permit

A Spousal Work Permit allows the spouse of a worker or student in Canada to work legally in the country. The video discusses changes to eligibility criteria for open spousal work permits, particularly for those linked to study permits, which could impact the attractiveness of Canada for international students and their families.

💡Asylum Seekers

Asylum Seekers are individuals who have been forced to flee their home country and seek international protection. The video touches on the potential reduction in the number of asylum seekers that Canada may accept, reflecting a broader policy shift towards economic migrants over humanitarian cases.

💡Minister Miller

Minister Miller is a key figure in the video, as he is responsible for making decisions regarding immigration policy in Canada. His recent announcements and speeches are analyzed by the hosts to predict future changes to immigration, including shifts in temporary and permanent resident numbers.

💡Election

The upcoming election is mentioned as a potential influencing factor for the changes in immigration policy. The hosts speculate that political considerations may affect the direction of immigration policy, including the possibility of immigration becoming a wedge issue.

Highlights

Canadian immigration is at a turning point with Minister Miller's recent decisions potentially impacting future immigration policies.

Immigration may become a wedge issue in the upcoming election, affecting the direction of immigration policies.

Minister Miller's speech on March 21st outlined intentions and rationale for upcoming changes in immigration.

42% of temporary residents in Canada are international students on study permits.

9% of temporary residents are under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, a surprisingly low figure.

44% of temporary residents fall under the International Mobility Program, a broad category including various subsets.

Postgraduate work permit holders make up 26% of temporary residents, a group likely to face changes.

Spouses of students and skilled workers may see reduced eligibility for open spousal work permits.

Immigration policies may shift towards favoring high-skilled workers and their families.

Arrivals through humanitarian pathways like CET visas may face more stringent controls.

IRCC is focusing on ensuring economic justification for temporary residents in Canada.

International students may face further restrictions, including caps on study permits and changes to postgrad work permit eligibility.

Minister Miller indicated a potential reduction in the number of Asylum Seekers accepted into Canada.

LMIA validity periods are being reduced, increasing pressure on employers to expedite recruitment.

Processing times for LMIA applications are increasing, which could lead to self-selection by foreign nationals.

IRCC is implementing stricter caps on low-wage LMIA applications, affecting certain industries more than others.

There is potential for increased scrutiny on LMIA applications due to fraud concerns in the Express Entry system.

Minister Miller's speaking notes emphasize a robust pathway to PR for those wishing to settle in Canada long-term.

For the first time, the immigration levels plan will include both temporary resident arrivals and PR arrivals starting this fall.

Minister Miller hinted at more domestic draws for Express Entry, suggesting a focus on transitioning temporary residents to PR.

Practical advice for those in Canada includes learning French, maximizing language test scores, and planning ahead for work permit extensions.

Transcripts

welcome back to another episode of the

Canadian immigration podcast I'm Mark Hy

and this is my Fearless comper Alicia

Bachman be how are you Alicia I'm doing

well Mark we're we're running with all

hands on deck these days indeed it is a

very very busy time within our practice

and within immigration including our

dear Minister Miller and some of the

decisions he's making and the future of

basically immigration in Canada there's

this is a real Turning Point especially

as we close in on an election and uh you

know whether or not immigration itself

is going to become some kind of a wedge

issue in that election but the minister

right now has made a number of different

announcements one of them if I flip my

screen over here for those who are

watching this through the YouTube

channel um yesterday uh Actually March

21st he had delivered a speech which

just got released the speaking notes

recently um on some of the intentions

the rationale what they're planning on

doing and I'll be honest Alicia this

really really looks like they're plan to

rip the Band-Aid off and uh and today

what we're going to do you guys is we're

just going to go through kind of a list

of our our Not Top 10 but just some key

takeaways that you absolutely need to

know and understand as you plan your

future and whether or not one you you

even decide to come to Canada or two

what your options are and what you can

do now to position yourself to hopefully

get one of those precious spots for

permanent residence and I guess three

even on the whole temporary residence

side where we're at with that whole

world of temporary residence that's work

permits study permits and where the

minister is headed so that's what we're

going to talk about today all right

let's slide over here Alicia and um

right off the bat the first one on our

list is the breakdown of the TR numbers

by category so do you want to share with

the the listeners and the viewers um

where we're at right now in terms of the

breakdown of of of temporary residence

in Canada and this is one of the reasons

I thought that Minister Miller's speech

was so interesting was because we can

see that they are analyzing this and

they're looking at what they're going to

be doing for the rest of this year and

and for next year and so they have taken

a look and they said well wait a minute

our temporary residents numbers so just

like Mark said anybody who's here on a

work permit anybody who's here as a

visitor anybody here who's here on a

visitor status so that could be an

actual visitor record or it could be you

know you've you've just come in and

you're visiting if you're a US citizen

or something like that where your Visa

exempt so they've taken a look and they

see a huge amount of different

categories of people who are not under

the levels plan right because the levels

plan only looks at permanent residents

and they're saying okay where are we at

on temporary residents so they said

right now we've got temporary resident

numbers 42% are international students

so we have this giant amount of

temporary residents who are here on

study permits as International students

the next thing is they have a fairly

small amount 9% here on under the

temporary foreign worker program so this

is anybody whose employer has gone and

received an lmia and then the person has

applied for an employer specific lmia

based work permit 44% and that's a big

umbrella number this is going to be

anybody who's under the international

Mobility Program so not under the

temporary for worker program with an

lmia it's somebody who has an lmia

exemption it includes a lot of different

people so that's your postgrad work

permit holders spousal work permits for

students or workers people under uh IEC

programs people under caet so the kuet

Ukrainian Pathways there's a lot of

different folks that are falling under

this 44% umbrella and then they give you

a further breakdown so 26% are

postgraduate permit holders so people

who've completed their studies then have

applied and were in an eligible program

for a

pgwp 9% are spouses of students and so

we'll talk about this really soon

because we know that that number is

going to start shrinking drastically 10%

are part of reciprocal exchanges so IEC

and if you would ask me I don't think

immigration can really reduce that

figure because it's reciprocal with

another country so those youth exchange

programs those are probably going to be

okay because it's a bilateral

International agreement 12% spouses of

skilled workers and hopefully those will

also not be cut because it's somebody

who has to have proven that they are

working the principal applicant is

working and then the spouse proves that

they are coming um one thing Alicia I

want to point out with this is they

could very well re like uh one of the

things one of the areas where I could

see them um changing this is moving it

back to to high skill workers so spouses

of of anyone at a tier three or higher

are the only ones eligible they could

easily do that because it was only

recently that they expanded it to

include spouses of all uh work from at

holders you know who had job offers so

it would not surprise me at all if if

low wage or low skill individuals are

are um not going to be able to bring

their spouses but we'll

see because again that's just a a

temporary policy right so they just

allowed that recently but you're right

Mark they could take it away so it might

only be high-skilled or high wage

workers who have a job and are working

in Canada that have the ability to bring

their spouse under an open spousal work

permit 26% arrivals I think this is now

going to get clamped down upon as well

because we're looking at people who are

coming under CET visas or other

humanitarian Pathways and it says that

number is growing and whenever

immigration looks and they see a a

stream that's starting to grow

significantly and they are wanting to

clamp down there's probably going to be

adjustments that they're going to make

for

that and then we've got 177% interc

company transfers trade agreements those

ones those are largely labor market

driven and everything that we're hearing

from the minister is they want to tie

those temporary figures the temporary

residents in Canada they want to make

sure whoever's here temporarily there is

a darn good economic reason for them to

be here and so I don't think they're

going to be touching

the that are Canadian and us or

International and Canadian that are

moving employees back and forth so and

then the last one is Asylum Seekers and

that's a 5 % on the Asylum Seekers which

you know Minister Miller is talking

about what's going on globally and it is

possible that the that Asylum Seeker

figure might decrease as well Alicia are

you surprised that the temporary foreign

worker program only comprises nine% of

this total allotment I I was actually

quite surprised with this and um you

know and I guess when you're looking at

overall work permit numbers you know

that that is you know if we were just

looking at that it would be different

because International students you know

it's almost you know it's a massive

number

42% um but but this is a number that I

was actually quite surprised and then as

we will get into it the minister has

talked about their intentions very

quietly with the temporary foreign

worker

program yeah and I was trying to do some

digging because I was trying to figure

out where this was announced and it it

doesn't seem to have been announced for

the temporary foreign worker program but

we'll we'll get to that it's it's it's

in the fine print within each of the

individual Pages yes

all right let's talk about these

International students Alicia so there's

been lots of discussion it was a little

over two months ago I guess when the

minister I guess dropped the hammer and

said look we need to reduce by at least

a third the total numbers we know that

Ontario and and British Columbia are

going to be the hardest hit but I think

was Nova Scotia on that list I can't

remember there's one other province that

was likely to expect a reduction in

numbers um but for international

students this is a you know they've

implemented lots of measures including

increasing the minimum funds that you

need to be able to study in Canada and

uh you know and to a large extent even

restricting the the number of schools

that are going to be eligible for

postgrad work permits and um and putting

caps overall but uh you know do you want

to touch on this now yeah and maybe Mark

you can actually pull up eer from our

firm wrote a really great article on

what's Happening for international

students and specifically with the

restrictions on

International students their spouses are

not now going to be eligible for open

spousal work permits which is going to

reduce how many people want to come here

and also it's going to reduce

immigration's overall numbers on that so

just like you mentioned Mark there's an

overall cap for international students

that cap is now going to be allocated

amongst the provinces so every province

is now going to have a certain

allocation of study permits that they

can then divvy up amongst the designated

learning institutions within their

Province so basically the federal

government is trying to mandate that the

schools that are getting those study

permit allocations are ones that are

credible that are schools that are of a

high caliber and that are not just um I

guess he said the equivalent of puppy

mills for turning out diplomas or

degrees so now there's basically a

reduction in how many people can get

study permits within that Province and

within that school and so now we have

these provincial attestation letters

these Pals that have to go out so Iger

wrote this article about you know also

what's going to happen for study permits

uh open spousal work permits associated

with the principal applicant study

permit so now you can't just get an open

spousal work permit unless you are

coming on a Masters or PhD or you are in

one of these professions so dentists

lawyers doctors optometrists pharmacists

vets uh nurses people who have Bachelors

of educations or engineering so if the

principal applicants in there only in

those cases can the spouse apply for an

open spousal work permit so that's a big

shift um the other thing that's shifting

is that they wanted to crack down on

public private partnership schools and

they had said that they were going to

not allow postgrad work permits from

public private partnership schools as of

September 2024 they just put a news

release out in the last few days saying

oh actually we're moving that up and

it's going to be May so as of May 2024

it is no longer going to be an eligible

postgrad work permit program if it's a

public private partnership which is a

big deal so those are some of the key

changes that are happening for

international students right

now one of the things I want to point

out is some comments that the minister

made and uh let me just I'll just share

this quickly this just came out I didn't

get a chance to listen to the whole

thing here but he did appeared on a

private podcast this you know this

channel that's got a whopping 668

subscribers I'm sure they had a reason

for doing it here but essentially this

uh this message that the minister has

posted um the immigration Minister on

cutting immigration uh one of the very

interesting comments he made once again

is you know that schools need to be

prepared and there was some discussions

about how the schools were blindsided

and he said no that's garbage like they

knew since Fraser Minister Fraser that

that we were going to have to do

something about this and that now they

need to basically um what did he

describe it as a come to Jesus moment

and realize that you as a school you may

have to reduce your programs you're

going to have to tighten the tighten

your belt you're going to have to look

at um focusing on programs that are

going to be contributing and producing

you know um uh workers for the workforce

essentially and uh and so he said to the

to the schools that look we're going to

watch what you're doing even you

graduate schools because right now a

master's PhD um those programs are not

subject to caps and he said um that if

they're not happy with how the schools

are are you know bringing everything um

um you know tightening up their belt and

and and reing in the programs um that

they are going to do even more drastic

measures in the fall and he said they

will have an announcement which I'll be

honest Alicia I don't think they believe

the schools are actually going to do it

or be able to do it I personally feel

like they're going to roll something out

in the fall once again to further

tighten things and does it have

something to do with an election yeah I

think it does does it have a lot to do

with our economy yeah it does and the

housing yes and everything else and

they've really taken it on the chin

lately because of the you know the fact

that they did not track uh temporary

resent numbers at least in terms of caps

like they do for permanent residents and

so now they're realizing and this is

something else they've talked about is

that they're going to now Institute

these kind of levels planning for

temporary residents which only makes

sense it makes sense to do that so

schools are you you guys need to be on

alert because the the the way the

minister is talking here he's clearly

giving the impression at least to me

that uh you know that that he doesn't

believe you're actually going to be able

to deliver on what they want you to do

and if that's the case we are likely

going to expect further restrictions and

I could even see in terms of spousal

open work permits and things like that

which are also um still eligible for

Master's PhD and like we looked at in in

Igor's blog uh that uh that he could

easily reduce those as well as a further

disincentive for for people to come and

the goal once again uh and I'll actually

I'll share one other thing here um that

from the speaking notes and I think you

may have alluded to this before Alicia

but you know Minister there's a reason

in his speaking notes he addressed is

this employment is 1.2 million uh jobs

above it's pre-co great but the

unemployment rate is at 5.8% as of

February 2024 we've done better than

recover all the jobs lost during Co and

now at 130% uh of that number and so

they're they're you know they're doing

good but they still recognize that you

know there's still people that are

looking for jobs and with a market

that's saturated with open work permit

holders and things like that you know

they're they have to listen and uh if

the general population in Canada is

whether it's real or perceived has

certain perceptions you cannot

dissociate these decisions from the fact

there's an election coming up and and so

people need to be aware of that yeah and

they have we've heard Rumblings Mark and

we'll have to see how this plays out as

well but of course the federal

government is working closely with the

provincial governments and so they are

talking more and more about streamlining

their temporary resident numbers to

economic goals and that's going to mean

p PPS right so the pnps are looking at

this and they talk about that and so you

know most of this is fairly Bleak but we

do have a little bit of array of hope

that's coming later in this um sequence

of of high points but one thing that

might be the downside is that we've

heard Rumblings from some of the pnps

that there's probably going to be

tightening on eligibility for certain

PNP streams that are linked to education

programs within the province So

currently many provinces have programs

where like it's an international student

student stream or you've gone to the

school in that Province graduated with

at least a 2-year degree from an

eligible institution and then you can

apply for P&P well we've heard Rumblings

that a two-year diploma or certificate

program is no longer going to cut the

mustard and they're looking at

restricting that to potentially a full

bachelor's degree so we'll have to see

how that rolls out as well but for sure

changes with with schools and students

so Mark do you want to turn to the the

next high point that we're going to

cover quickly here all

right okay quet Visa holders and uh this

is one that um the minister has has

addressed very clearly and the reality

is Canada as he's indicated would not be

um too happy if we just said look all of

you quit Visa holders with work permits

you can no longer extend and once your

work permits expire then you have to go

home and you know as well as I do Alicia

that there are very few Pathways

currently for quet Visa holders to

become permanent residents in Canada and

uh and there if the if the war you know

in Ukraine is not resolving within the

near future um I would be very very

surprised uh to see the the department

not extend and offer an ability to

extend these these work permits for

people that are in Canada and you know

if I slip back here to the messaging you

can see they talk about the fact that

with all of the 300,000 arrivals in

Canada by essentially by the end of this

month that's what they expect in Canada

they have important Global commitments

right and they say here they're the

commitments are important to Canadians

and Canadians should not be abashed and

and you know should should unabashedly

be proud of this at the same time there

should be an honest conversation about

what what the rise in international

migration means for Canada as we plan

ahead so I think they're saying look we

are in a situation now and we're going

to get this in one of our later bullet

points but with with respect to the quet

Visa holders we're committed to these

people and so the ones that we've

committed to we're going to support and

we're going to continue to facilitate

but we're going to maybe give a little

sober second thought as to as to you

know instituting any large scale um

programs like we have with no caps uh in

in you know in these types of uh

circumstances so um so I don't know what

if you have any thoughts Alicia do you

think they're going to create a separate

PR program for quet Visa holders or or

do you think they're going to hold off

on that aside from the family the family

program that's that's in existence now

for for you know for individuals who

have family in Canada yeah like they

might hold off on it because I don't

know if they're G to have room in their

their Federal levels plan for PRS if

they create a new category for

ukrainians and so I'm I'm guessing that

they're hoping that if they extend the

kuet work permit long enough you know

over the next so some people have here

for a couple years and if they extend it

for another 3 years right now people

could have extended up until the end of

the month for another 3 years so

hopefully these people who are currently

in Canada have at least three years and

if they can start to get their Canadian

work experience up if they can start to

get their English up I'm guessing that

they're hoping there will be some way to

scoop um from Canadian residents who

have Canadian work permits so it remains

to be seen if there will be a specific

PR program for all ukrainians but there

is simply the family one right now so

hopefully if you are Ukrainian make sure

that you are increasing your language

skills English is so important to make

sure that you can get those clb levels

that would make you qualify for Express

entry so try to get clb5 for everything

to qualify for C and make sure you get

your one-year Canadian work

experience so I do want to talk list

yeah I do want to talk about lmia

restrictions because this is something

that just got slipped in there and you'd

have to dig down and go to lmia validity

periods and you will notice that during

covid lmia validity periods were

actually 18 months so a company could

apply for their lmia if they had an

approved lmia the validity would be 18

months meaning that a worker can submit

their work permit application anytime

within those 18 months it doesn't mean

that the work permit duration is 18

months so just keep those two things in

mind but what happened with the

restrictions is quietly last fall um or

the end of the year last year they

turned that 18-month period into a

12month period and then very quietly as

of beginning of May May 1st

2024 that six that 12-month period is

going to go to a six-month period And so

this is significant uh because it will

mean that companies have to be

very very spot-on on their recruitment

they have to have whoever they want for

those lmas some of the companies have

had bulk lmas where they just have you

know five unnamed workers and they can

slot in the employees as they find them

it's going to mean that they have to be

quick on the Recruitment and so that any

time they get somebody who's approved on

that lmia that person has to submit

their work permit within the six-month

window otherwise that spot is gone the

lmia they'll just lose it and it does

force employers to make sure that they

are carefully timing their recruitment

efforts and they have rolling lmas if if

they need to have ongoing

Recruitment and right now like we can

see that they're they're posting low

wage stream business days processing I

I'll be honest Alicia I don't know how

accurate these are they say for February

2024 we're into March because I've got

one myself that is we're over 120 days

you know calendar days but we've blown

past this so this is we just we just

yeah we just submitted an lmia with a

corporate client on the 15th of March

and they haven't even requested payment

yet and that's unusual so normally as

soon as you submit your online lmia

within a day usually you get a payment

request and they haven't even gotten the

payment request they called the call

center and they said well there's

nothing even on file so you know lmas

are definitely slowing down and that

might be a product yeah yeah and this is

what happens you guys when the

government says we're going to reduce

the number of temporary residents one of

the tools they have in their in their

tool toolbx is to simply not process as

many applications which then results in

longer cues and when you have longer

cues people then decide to self- select

in other words well it isn't worth

applying if it takes five months to get

this work permit you know as a foreign

National and I'm choosing whether to

come to Canada or the us or Australia

and I can get a job offer from say

Australia and I'm just throwing this out

in an example I don't know if this is

the case but I can get my permit in a

month and it's going to take five months

in Canada which job am I going to take

so processing times lead to that self-

selection every bit as much for for

temporary residence as it does for

permanent residents as well and the

other thing on lmia restrictions that's

important is that again as of May they

are changing the low wage cap figures

and so for lmas there's of course High

wage streams and low wage streams and

anybody who's on a a low wage stream

lmia application it used to be that

there the cap um most of the time it's

20% sometimes it's 30% but certain

industries were allowed to have 30% caps

because they were chronic shortages now

they are reducing the number of

industries that can benefit from that

30% cap so right now you can see we've

got a number of industries that can have

a 30% cap um s a 20% cap but they are

going to say it was 20 it it could be 30

for these industries now only these

industries are going to have so instead

of having like a list of seven we're

going to have a list of three only

construction hospitals nursing and

Residential Care Facilities will be able

to have the 30% everybody else is stuck

with the 20% of their Workforce so this

is important too because it means that

they are really squeezing uh which

Industries can have higher percentages

of low wage workers

all right possible restrictions for

humanitarian and Asylum we hinted at

this a little bit Alicia but you know

The Minister's been clear um where where

where do you see things

going yeah and so in the speaking notes

from the minister they're talking about

climate change refugees they're talking

about global

um humanitarian disasters war and they

are saying well you know we have to have

some sort of reasoned linkage to who

we're bringing in on our economic

requirements as well and so the

interesting thing and I think this is a

positive development is that they are

trying to do things like the EMP the

economic Mobility pathway for refugees

and so they're trying to link um

internationally recognized refugees

people who are overseas and already

recognized as a refugee with Employers

in Canada and then bringing them in

under this EMP stream which then sets It

Up For Less um less Asylum seekers in

Canada or Refugee seekers in Canada but

people who are already determined to be

refugees basically being placed with

eligible Employers in Canada often also

within rural programs so you have

communities who are saying yeah we're

ready willing and able to have spots for

these people within an economic program

which has hopefully better better

settlement outcomes but of course Canada

has International obligations to taking

in a certain number of refugees and so

this is this is something that has to be

negotiated with International Partners

as well

right

okay what has ircc done so far obviously

we've covered quite a bit of this to

this point um but uh but you know where

where where are we seeing the Focus

right now in in trying to reduce yeah so

if they're looking at reducing Asylum

seekers in particular one of the big

things they've done that we didn't touch

on yet was they made partial visa

requirements for Mexican citizens and so

that's pretty large because they were

doing analysis of what are the source

countries for Refugee claims and Mexico

was fairly high on that list and so

right away they put on a Visa

requirement or a partial Visa

requirement for Mexican citizens and

that is going to have trickle effects in

terms of who's coming in as a temporary

resident um potentially who the Asylum

SE or Refugee claimant numbers or where

those are coming from and they've also

you know they could also do that on

other countries so they could say look

we've got a number of Asylum Seekers

coming from country XYZ we're going to

start putting more restrictions on in

terms of who can come whether we're

having Visa approvals from those

countries right they can start being

more stringent in terms of their

criteria so that's something that

definitely is um is probably going to

affect next year's outcomes and

numbers all right speaking of next year

speaking of the future where do you see

things

going so I think everything is going to

now be tied policy-wise to what is the

economic outcome so who is going to be

able to support that person's work in

Canada so I think hopefully employers

Canadian employers who can really

demonstrate that they met a labor market

need that they tested the labor market

through advertising and recruitment they

can't find somebody they can apply for

an lmia but I think there's going to be

higher scrutiny around even lmas because

there has been some rumbling of fraud

that people have been especially because

it's so competitive with Express entry

right now those 50 arranged employment

points are gold and so it seems like Bad

actors have been exploiting the

temporary forign program to get an lmia

and then turning around and charging

employees to say they have a job offer

which is completely illegal and I would

hope that the department sees that you

know that is clear fraud they need to do

better enforcement and cut down on the

fraud but it shouldn't throw the baby

out with the bath water you shouldn't be

penalizing all Canadian employers

because a couple people are being

fraudulent so um it will however mean

that everybody that the federal

government is going to be working with

the provincial governments they are

going to be looking carefully at all of

their programs to try to rein things in

because we know their overall Target for

levels planning is to go from a

temporary resident number of 6.2% to 5%

5%

yeah and as we see here Alicia from the

minister speaking notes he talks about

ensuring you know a robust Pathway to PR

for those wishing to make Canada their

home in the long term avoid the pitfalls

in an economy built solely on temporary

workers and I think that's what they're

seeing now and and the reason they're

seeing that is because they've got all

of these International students that are

here and they themselves Alicia remember

issued those 18month work permit um

those temporary policies for postgrad

work permits how many times did they do

it one two people were waiting for a

third reup and so they've contributed to

it and when it comes to permanent

residence if you then have way way more

temporary workers who are all looking to

become permanent resents well companies

then are going to do what they can to

keep them temporarily because they're

filling you know a position within their

within their company and so but this is

very telling right here this paragraph

it means not only setting targets for PR

like we talked about but also for

temporary residents and whenever that

Target is set that means that unless you

have a true cap on the program

processing times will increase for

everything that's the that's the the the

um the choke point with temporary

resident applications unless they put a

hard cap and just don't accept new

applications so he said starting this

fall for the first time we will expand

the immigration levels plan to include

both temporary resident arrivals and PR

arrivals the latter category something

we're doing already yes they are so this

is and this is where I think Alicia the

minister already has his mindset on what

he's going to be doing with

International students and I personally

think that regardless I don't think the

schools are going to satisfy whatever

the minister in you know envisions and

that when they roll out these levels

plans in the fall there is going to be a

little bit more of a surprise for

schools when they realize that they're

going to further cap and further reduce

even for professional schools that's my

that's my view but you know obviously we

don't know and this is speculation but

this sure seems like it it sure seems

like that's the direction they're going

to go and Mark I think after all this we

should turn to the one bright point um

so the one point bright point in all of

this is you know Minister Miller so if

you if you go down we can look at

exactly what he said but he said you

know as part of our efforts for

temporary residents to transition to

permanent residency we will have more

domestic draws so on that paragraph that

starts with on the other hand on another

hand at the bottom of the page there

yeah so halfway through that paragraph

he says as part of our efforts we will

have more domestic draws for us so I

assume the federal government and ask

provinces and territories taking part in

the PNP to do the same with their

allocations now to me this means CC

draws right like do a c only draw make

sure that you have some sort of way of

bringing in and giving a chance to those

who are currently sitting in Canada to

transition to PR yeah which we've talked

about like you and I every time we go

live on our live Q&A which we're going

to be going live after the recording of

this um we've talked about the fact that

they have for whatever reason stopped

doing CC draws and I'll be honest Alicia

it just makes no sense to me with all of

the people in Canada why you would

continue to bring new people from

outside um when when they're already

here and you know as you look at the

draws and if we go back you know how far

is it you know since the last CEC draw

we probably have to go back September

September 2021

202 September of 2021 you can see all of

these draws you guys so September of

2021 let's see and actually uh let's see

looks like it's the 14th maybe Alicia um

Canadian experience class right here is

September the four yeah September 14th

2021 that's right so yeah this is uh

this is the world we're in unfortunately

but um this could be a bright spot and

we'll have to monitor it and see what

happens in the you know in the coming

rounds of invitations but I you know I

wouldn't be surprised you know so let's

see where that goes all right last one

Alicia practical advice yeah so

practical advice all right if you're in

Canada learn French if you're in Canada

maximize your iels cell pip or the new

Pearson test language scores you want to

have maximum points on there you don't

want to be losing any of the points if

you are having a work permit that's

going to expire start talking to your

employers right now about doing an lmia

because it takes four weeks of

advertising plus probably three or four

months right now for lmia processing

it's longer than the stated processing

times as far as our our experience with

clients is and so it's really important

to transition to try to get that closed

employer specific work permit it has to

be a genuine employer who is doing the

right thing they cannot charge you for

going and doing an lmia it is the

employer application to make sure that

they are asking for the lmia from

Service Canada so realize right now that

things are super competitive if you are

a student and you're eligible for your

postgrad work permit apply right away if

you have a spouse that's eligible for an

open spousal work permit because you're

a student apply right away because some

of those things might get taken away y

all of those things and I want to put a

little teaser out there you guys because

I'm going to be doing a little episode

um on specifically um increasing your

compe competitiveness for Express entry

and one of the things on my list and

I'll show you why may very well be if

your employer not willing to support you

with an

lmia it may be to go home and in some

knowledge-based environments it might

there might be a possibility for you to

um you know to make arrangements to be

able to work outside of Canada um and

I'm not going to get into a lot of

details here because it it can be a

little bit more a little bit more

complicated in establish in that you're

truly working outside but this may very

well be an option for you as well so

stay tuned for that and for those of you

who see that you're you know the the

light at the end of the tunnel is

starting to dim and you're running into

a wall and that you know that wall has a

door but the door is locked to you there

may be Avenues to get yourself some new

keys to get in and uh we'll be talking

about that a little bit more but this is

uh this is the future as Minister Miller

releases more information we'll

definitely address that

um and uh as always if you are in a

situation you're trying to figure out

what to do don't hesitate to reach out

to Alicia and I and and book a consult

there's links in the description below

all right thanks Alicia and take care

and thanks so much for for

listening