Steve Rattner: Unemployment Rates Set To Hit Double Digits | Morning Joe | MSNBC

Summary

The video transcript discusses the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on skyrocketing unemployment rates and the challenges facing small businesses. Experts predict unemployment could reach 14.7% by summer, with a slow recovery expected. There is skepticism about the effectiveness of government aid programs, like the Paycheck Protection Program, which is being rolled out slowly and causing confusion among businesses. The conversation also emphasizes the importance of widespread COVID-19 testing and vaccines to help the economy recover. The segment ends with a political implication for Donald Trump ahead of the upcoming election.

Takeaways

• 🏠 The decision for a stay-at-home order is up to the President, based on guidance from medical experts.
• 📉 There were staggering jobless claims, with 6.65 million people filing for unemployment in one week and a total of over 10 million claims in March.
• 📊 Unemployment rates are projected to spike to double digits, potentially reaching 14.7% by summer 2020.
• 🚀 The unemployment rate was previously at 3.5%, but is expected to increase like a 'rocket ship,' according to economic forecasts.
• 💼 A long, slow recovery in employment is expected, with unemployment still projected to be high (around 9.5%) by the end of 2020.
• 🏦 Small businesses are struggling with the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), with banks reporting confusion and slow rollout.
• 💸 The initial $350 billion allocated for small business loans may be insufficient, and experts suggest the need for up to $1 trillion.
• 💉 Widespread testing and a vaccine are crucial for predicting economic recovery and getting people back to work.
• 🏢 Many small businesses are expected to close permanently, causing significant economic destruction.
• 📆 Projections indicate that it could take until 2023 for the economy to return to pre-pandemic levels, creating long-term challenges.

Q & A

What is the primary topic of the conversation in the script?

The primary topic is the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on unemployment rates, small business challenges, and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).

What are the projected unemployment rates discussed in the script?

The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 13.2% in the second quarter of the year and 14.7% in the third quarter, with a long recovery period extending until 2023.

What was the unemployment rate before the pandemic, according to the script?

Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate was at 3.5%, with a slight increase to 3.7% in the first quarter due to early impacts of the crisis.

Why is the recovery from the economic downturn described as slow?

The recovery is expected to be slow due to the severe impact on small businesses, confusion around government aid programs, and the uncertainty surrounding public health measures like vaccines and testing.

What is the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), and how much funding is allocated to it?

The PPP is a small business loan program with $350 billion allocated in the $2.2 trillion stimulus package to help businesses retain employees during the crisis.

What issues are small businesses facing with the PPP rollout?

Small businesses are facing confusion and delays in accessing PPP funds, with banks unclear on implementation rules and small businesses unsure how to apply or utilize the program.

What is the significance of the unemployment rate during the 2009 financial crisis in the script?

The script compares the 2009 peak unemployment rate of 10% to the projected rates during the pandemic, emphasizing that the current crisis could result in an unemployment rate 50% higher.

What are the two key factors mentioned that will affect the economic recovery?

The two key factors are widespread testing for COVID-19 and the availability of a vaccine, both of which will influence how quickly people can safely return to work.

What might happen to small businesses that fail to access the PPP or similar programs?

Many small businesses might be forced to shut down permanently due to lack of funds, creating long-term damage to the economy that could be difficult to reverse.

What political consequence is discussed in the script concerning the unemployment rate?

It is suggested that President Donald Trump may face double-digit unemployment rates during the fall election, which could have significant political consequences.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Economic Toll of the Pandemic

This paragraph discusses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on staggering jobless claims in the United States. It mentions that 6.65 million people filed for unemployment in a single week, and over 10 million claims were made in March alone. The economic fallout is compared to the loss of jobs created in the past five years, showing the dramatic effects of the pandemic. It then introduces a chart projecting a sharp rise in unemployment, with estimates from Goldman Sachs suggesting a significant increase in unemployment rates, possibly hitting double digits.

05:02

🚀 Unemployment Projections Skyrocket

The paragraph goes into more detail about future unemployment projections. Economists predict a steep rise in the unemployment rate, with the second quarter expected to reach 13.2% and the third quarter possibly peaking at 14.7%. This is contrasted with the 2009 financial crisis, which saw a 10% peak. The discussion moves to potential economic recovery, challenging the idea of a V-shaped rebound, and instead suggesting a slower recovery in employment rates over the next few years. A political note mentions that President Trump could face double-digit unemployment during the upcoming election.

🏦 Small Businesses and PPP Challenges

This paragraph explores the challenges faced by small businesses during the crisis, especially the uncertainty around accessing the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). There is confusion among businesses and banks about the rules and guidelines for the $350 billion allocated in the stimulus package. Many small businesses are struggling to navigate the system, and the number allocated for relief is considered insufficient by many. There is a call for additional funding, with the possibility of needing $1 trillion to prevent permanent closures of many businesses.

📊 Slow Rollout of PPP and Economic Worries

The rollout of the PPP is described as slow and chaotic. Small businesses are facing difficulties in accessing funds due to a lack of clear guidance from the Treasury. Banks are overwhelmed with inquiries but unable to provide assistance due to confusion about the program's implementation. The paragraph warns that without significant improvements, many businesses will shut down permanently, creating long-lasting damage to the economy. The potential for $375 billion more in funding is discussed, but even this might not be enough to save all businesses.

🧪 The Importance of Testing for Economic Recovery

This paragraph emphasizes the critical role that widespread testing for COVID-19 and antibody testing will play in determining the future of the economy. It argues that without reliable data on the virus’s spread and immunity, the economy cannot fully reopen, and the projections could worsen. The paragraph touches on the need for vaccines and consistent public health measures to ensure a safe return to work, underlining that the economic recovery depends heavily on resolving the public health crisis.

📅 Uncertain Future and Long-term Impact

This final paragraph wraps up the discussion by stating that despite economic measures, without swift public health solutions like vaccines and mass testing, the damage could be worse than projected. The text highlights the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic’s future impact on both public health and the economy. Public health experts are critical to providing insights that economists can't predict, stressing that the economy won't recover until people feel safe returning to work.

Keywords

💡Unemployment

Unemployment refers to the condition where people are actively seeking jobs but unable to find work. In the video, it's a critical issue as staggering jobless claims were reported, with millions of people filing for unemployment due to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate is predicted to reach double digits, hitting 14.7% in the summer, much higher than the 10% peak during the 2009 financial crisis.

💡Jobless Claims

Jobless claims refer to the number of people filing for unemployment benefits after losing their jobs. The video highlights an unprecedented surge in jobless claims, with 6.65 million people filing in just one week, and over 10 million in March 2020 alone. This surge underscores the severe impact of the pandemic on employment, wiping out the jobs created over the past five years.

💡PPP (Paycheck Protection Program)

The Paycheck Protection Program is a small business loan initiative introduced as part of a $2.2 trillion stimulus package to help businesses keep employees on their payroll during the pandemic. The video discusses the challenges faced by small businesses in accessing these loans, including confusion among banks and lack of clear guidance from the Treasury. Despite the initial allocation of $350 billion, many believe this amount is insufficient to sustain struggling businesses.

💡Small Businesses

Small businesses are independently owned companies with limited revenue and employees. In the video, small businesses are depicted as being hit hard by the pandemic, with many facing closure due to lack of financial resources. The Paycheck Protection Program is intended to provide some relief, but delays and complications in its rollout threaten the survival of many of these businesses.

💡Social Distancing

Social distancing refers to measures taken to reduce close contact between people to slow the spread of infectious diseases. The video suggests that earlier and more aggressive implementation of social distancing could have mitigated the economic damage caused by the pandemic, potentially preserving more jobs and reducing the overall impact on the economy.

💡Economic Recovery

Economic recovery refers to the process of rebuilding the economy after a downturn. In the video, experts debate whether the recovery will be V-shaped, with a quick bounce back, or more prolonged. The projections suggest a slow recovery, with unemployment rates remaining high into 2023. The uncertainty surrounding public health solutions like vaccines and widespread testing further complicates predictions of economic recovery.

💡Vaccine

A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides immunity to a specific disease. The video emphasizes the importance of a COVID-19 vaccine in determining how quickly people can return to work and how fast the economy can recover. Without a vaccine, it is difficult to predict when normal activities can resume, prolonging the economic crisis.

💡Public Health

Public health refers to the science of protecting and improving the health of communities through preventive measures. In the video, the economic recovery is shown to be dependent on resolving the public health crisis caused by COVID-19. Public health experts, rather than economists, are viewed as crucial in determining when it will be safe for people to return to work, as widespread testing and vaccines are needed to ensure safety.

💡Stimulus Package

A stimulus package is a government initiative that provides financial aid to boost the economy during a crisis. The video refers to a $2.2 trillion stimulus package passed in response to the pandemic. This package includes funds for the Paycheck Protection Program, as well as other economic relief measures aimed at supporting businesses, workers, and the healthcare system during the crisis.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of significant economic decline across the economy, lasting more than a few months. In the video, the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is described as severe, with some experts speculating that the U.S. could be heading towards a depression, depending on how the public health crisis is handled. The sharp rise in unemployment and widespread business closures are key indicators of this recession.

Highlights

Unemployment claims reached 6.65 million in one week, bringing the total for March to over 10 million.

The unemployment rate is projected to reach double digits, possibly surpassing the 2009 peak of 10%.

Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment could hit 13.2% in the second quarter and 14.7% by summer.

Even by the end of 2020, unemployment is projected to remain high at 9.5%, with only slow recovery expected.

Unemployment could stay elevated at 6.3% by the end of 2021, with full recovery not expected until 2023.

Many jobs lost are from small businesses, which may struggle to reopen after the crisis.

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides $350 billion in loans for small businesses, but the rollout is slow and disorganized.

Banks and small businesses are confused about how to access PPP funds, and larger amounts of aid may be needed.

There’s concern that $375 billion allocated to small businesses may be insufficient, and more support could be necessary.

The economic recovery may depend on widespread testing, antibody testing, and vaccines to help people return to work.

Steve Rattner emphasizes the importance of addressing public health issues before expecting economic recovery.

Without fast and efficient testing for COVID-19, the economic crisis may deepen further.

The virus was not self-inflicted, but quicker responses to social distancing measures could have reduced economic damage.

Many businesses are likely to shut down permanently due to prolonged closures and insufficient financial support.

The captain of a Navy aircraft carrier raised alarms about a coronavirus outbreak, leading to his removal from duty.

Transcripts

STAY AT HOME ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BUT THAT’S UP TO THE PRESIDENT.

BUT THAT’S UP TO THE PRESIDENT. THAT’S LISTENING TO THE DOCTORS,

THAT’S LISTENING TO THE DOCTORS, AS YOU SAY.

AS YOU SAY. LET’S TALK ABOUT THE FINANCIAL

LET’S TALK ABOUT THE FINANCIAL SIDE ABOUT THIS THAT’S TAKING AN

SIDE ABOUT THIS THAT’S TAKING AN INCREDIBLE HUMAN TOLL.

INCREDIBLE HUMAN TOLL. STAGGERING JOBLESS CLAIMS NUMBER

STAGGERING JOBLESS CLAIMS NUMBER CROSSING AS WE REPORTED

CROSSING AS WE REPORTED YESTERDAY.

YESTERDAY. 6.65 MILLION PEOPLE CLAIMING

6.65 MILLION PEOPLE CLAIMING UNEMPLOYMENT JUST LAST WEEK.

UNEMPLOYMENT JUST LAST WEEK. THE WEEK BEFORE THAT, THE LABOR

THE WEEK BEFORE THAT, THE LABOR DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCED 3.28

DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCED 3.28 MILLION CLAIMS, BRINGING THE

MILLION CLAIMS, BRINGING THE MONTH OF MARCH TOTAL TO MORE

MONTH OF MARCH TOTAL TO MORE THAN 10 MILLION JOBLESS CLAIMS.

THAN 10 MILLION JOBLESS CLAIMS. IN FACT, THE PAST TWO WEEKS ALL

IN FACT, THE PAST TWO WEEKS ALL BUT ELIMINATED THE JOBS CREATED

BUT ELIMINATED THE JOBS CREATED IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS.

IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS. STEVE, YOU HAVE A CHART ON WHERE

STEVE, YOU HAVE A CHART ON WHERE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS LIKELY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS LIKELY HEADED FROM HERE.

HEADED FROM HERE. HOW BAD DO YOU SEE IT GETTING?

HOW BAD DO YOU SEE IT GETTING? >> SURE, WILLIE.

>> SURE, WILLIE. WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT.

WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT. YOU KNOW, LOOK, IN ME MEACHAM’S

YOU KNOW, LOOK, IN ME MEACHAM’S HONOR, LET ME SAY, WE’RE AT THE

HONOR, LET ME SAY, WE’RE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE BEGINNING HERE.

BEGINNING OF THE BEGINNING HERE. YOU’RE SEEING THE LEADING EDGE

YOU’RE SEEING THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

OF WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THERE WILL BE UNEMPLOYMENT

THERE WILL BE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS TOMORROW, BUT THEY’LL BE

NUMBERS TOMORROW, BUT THEY’LL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN BECAUSE

RELATIVELY BENIGN BECAUSE THEY’RE GATHERED BURG THEDURING

THEY’RE GATHERED BURG THEDURING MIDDLE OF MARCH, BEFORE MOST OF

MIDDLE OF MARCH, BEFORE MOST OF THIS HIT.

THIS HIT. AHEAD

AHEAD AHEAD, YOU CAN SEE WHERE WE’RE

AHEAD, YOU CAN SEE WHERE WE’RE GOING FROM HERE, WHICH IS

GOING FROM HERE, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY INTO DOUBLE DIGIT

ESSENTIALLY INTO DOUBLE DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT.

UNEMPLOYMENT. THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART,

THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CHART, WE’VE BEEN SITTING AT 3.5%.

WE’VE BEEN SITTING AT 3.5%. FIRST QUARTER WILL BE AROUND

FIRST QUARTER WILL BE AROUND 3.7%, FOR THE REASONS I SAID.

3.7%, FOR THE REASONS I SAID. THEN WE’RE JUST GOING TO GO UP

THEN WE’RE JUST GOING TO GO UP LIKE A ROCKET SHIP.

LIKE A ROCKET SHIP. THESE ARE GOLDMAN SACHS’

THESE ARE GOLDMAN SACHS’ PROJECTIONS.

PROJECTIONS. IF YOU LOOK AT MOST OTHER

IF YOU LOOK AT MOST OTHER MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS, YOU’LL

MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS, YOU’LL SEE SOMETHING VERY MUCH LIKE

SEE SOMETHING VERY MUCH LIKE THIS.

THIS. THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR,

THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, WHICH JUST STARTED YESTERDAY,

WHICH JUST STARTED YESTERDAY, THE DAY BEFORE.

THE DAY BEFORE. WE GO TO 13.2%.

WE GO TO 13.2%. THE THIRD QUARTER OVER THE

THE THIRD QUARTER OVER THE SUMMER, THEY’RE PROJECTING WE’LL

SUMMER, THEY’RE PROJECTING WE’LL HIT 14.7%.

HIT 14.7%. JUST FOR REFERENCE, YOU CAN SEE

JUST FOR REFERENCE, YOU CAN SEE THE DOTTED RED LINE ACROSS THE

THE DOTTED RED LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE.

MIDDLE. THAT’S OUR 2009 PEAK AT 10%.

THAT’S OUR 2009 PEAK AT 10%. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT AN

WE’RE TALKING ABOUT AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 50% HIGHER

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 50% HIGHER THAN WHERE WE GOT TO DURING THE

THAN WHERE WE GOT TO DURING THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS.

GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. MANY PEOPLE SAY TO THEMSELVES,

MANY PEOPLE SAY TO THEMSELVES, WELL, THIS IS GOING TO BE A

WELL, THIS IS GOING TO BE A V-SHAPE RECOVERY.

V-SHAPE RECOVERY. WE’LL BOUNCE BACK AS FAST AS WE

WE’LL BOUNCE BACK AS FAST AS WE BOUNCED DOWN BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL

BOUNCED DOWN BECAUSE PEOPLE WILL GO BACK TO WORK.

GO BACK TO WORK. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE

IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE PROJECTIONS SHOW, THAT’S NOT

PROJECTIONS SHOW, THAT’S NOT WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT.

WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT. WE’RE LOOKING AT A LONG, SLOW

WE’RE LOOKING AT A LONG, SLOW RECOVERY IN JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT

RECOVERY IN JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GOING TO 9.5% AT THE END OF

RATE GOING TO 9.5% AT THE END OF THIS YEAR.

THIS YEAR. THEN YOU CAN SEE QUARTER BY

THEN YOU CAN SEE QUARTER BY QUARTER.

QUARTER. END OF NEXT YEAR, 6.3%, STILL

END OF NEXT YEAR, 6.3%, STILL VERY HIGH IN 2020.

VERY HIGH IN 2020. 5.2%.

5.2%. WE DON’T GET BACK TO ANYTHING

WE DON’T GET BACK TO ANYTHING LIKE WHERE WE ARE TODAY UNTIL

LIKE WHERE WE ARE TODAY UNTIL 2023, WHICH IS A VERY LONG TIME

2023, WHICH IS A VERY LONG TIME FROM NOW.

FROM NOW. THEN JUST ONE LITTLE POLITICAL

THEN JUST ONE LITTLE POLITICAL FOOTNOTE, DONALD TRUMP WILL

FOOTNOTE, DONALD TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FACING DOUBLE DIGIT

PROBABLY BE FACING DOUBLE DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT ON ELECTION DAY

UNEMPLOYMENT ON ELECTION DAY THIS FALL.

THIS FALL. WE CAN ALL DEBATE THE

WE CAN ALL DEBATE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT.

CONSEQUENCES OF THAT. >> STEVE, A LOT OF THOSE JOBS,

>> STEVE, A LOT OF THOSE JOBS, OBVIOUSLY, FALL IN SMALL

OBVIOUSLY, FALL IN SMALL BUSINESSES THAT MAY HAVE TO SHUT

BUSINESSES THAT MAY HAVE TO SHUT THEIR DOORS THROUGH THIS.

THEIR DOORS THROUGH THIS. THEY DON’T HAVE THE MONEY TO

THEY DON’T HAVE THE MONEY TO KEEP RUNNING THROUGH THIS

KEEP RUNNING THROUGH THIS CRISIS.

CRISIS. LET’S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT

LET’S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE PPP, WHICH IS THE PAYCHECK

THE PPP, WHICH IS THE PAYCHECK PROTECTION PROGRAM.

PROTECTION PROGRAM. THAT’S THE SMALL BUSINESS LOANS.

THAT’S THE SMALL BUSINESS LOANS. 350 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE $2.2

350 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE $2.2 TRILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE.

TRILLION STIMULUS PACKAGE. THEY’RE SUPPOSED TO GO OUT

THEY’RE SUPPOSED TO GO OUT TODAY.

TODAY. WE HEARD FROM BIG BANKS THERE’S

WE HEARD FROM BIG BANKS THERE’S CHAOS.

CHAOS. THEY DON’T KNOW THE RULES OR HOW

THEY DON’T KNOW THE RULES OR HOW TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROGRAM.

TO IMPLEMENT THIS PROGRAM. I HEARD FROM THE HEAD OF A

I HEARD FROM THE HEAD OF A MID-SIZED BANK IN THE SOUTH.

MID-SIZED BANK IN THE SOUTH. VERY CONCERNED.

VERY CONCERNED. THEY WANT TO GET THE MONEY TO

THEY WANT TO GET THE MONEY TO THEIR CUSTOMERS, BUT THEY HAVE

THEIR CUSTOMERS, BUT THEY HAVE NO GUIDANCE AT ALL FROM

NO GUIDANCE AT ALL FROM TREASURY.

TREASURY. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT HOW

WHAT ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT HOW THEY PROGRAM IS GOING TO ROLL

THEY PROGRAM IS GOING TO ROLL OUT?

OUT? >> IT’S ROLLING OUT SLOWLY, AS

>> IT’S ROLLING OUT SLOWLY, AS YOU IMPLIED.

YOU IMPLIED. LOOK, I WOULD SAY, AND A LITTLE

LOOK, I WOULD SAY, AND A LITTLE AS JEFFREY WAS SAYING, TO BE

AS JEFFREY WAS SAYING, TO BE TWO-HANDED ABOUT THIS, THESE ARE

TWO-HANDED ABOUT THIS, THESE ARE NEW PROGRAMS.

NEW PROGRAMS. THEY’RE VERY COMPLICATED AND

THEY’RE VERY COMPLICATED AND HARD TO IMPLEMENT.

HARD TO IMPLEMENT. THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLING OUT

THAT SAID, IT IS ROLLING OUT VERY, VERY SLOWLY.

VERY, VERY SLOWLY. THERE’S ENORMOUS CONFUSION AMONG

THERE’S ENORMOUS CONFUSION AMONG THE SMALL BUSINESS COMMUNITY AS

THE SMALL BUSINESS COMMUNITY AS TO HOW TO ACCESS THIS AND

TO HOW TO ACCESS THIS AND GETTING NOT A LOT OF RESPONSE

GETTING NOT A LOT OF RESPONSE WHEN THEY MAKE PHONE CALLS,

WHEN THEY MAKE PHONE CALLS, SENDING EMAILS, THINGS LIKE

SENDING EMAILS, THINGS LIKE THAT.

THAT. I’D POINT OUT THERE ARE $375

I’D POINT OUT THERE ARE $375 BILLION FOR THAT PROGRAM IN THE

BILLION FOR THAT PROGRAM IN THE LEGISLATION.

LEGISLATION. MOST PEOPLE THINK THAT NUMBER IS

MOST PEOPLE THINK THAT NUMBER IS WAY TOO SMALL.

WAY TOO SMALL. BEFORE THIS IS OVER, WE’RE GOING

BEFORE THIS IS OVER, WE’RE GOING TO NEED SOMETHING LIKE $1

TO NEED SOMETHING LIKE $1 TRILLION.

TRILLION. EVEN THEN, MANY SMALL BUSINESSES

EVEN THEN, MANY SMALL BUSINESSES ARE NOT GOING TO KNOW HOW TO USE

ARE NOT GOING TO KNOW HOW TO USE THIS.

THIS. IT IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH.

IT IS NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH. THEY’RE NOT GOING TO WANT TO

THEY’RE NOT GOING TO WANT TO ACCESS IT.

ACCESS IT. SO YOU’RE GOING TO SEE -- THIS

SO YOU’RE GOING TO SEE -- THIS IS PART OF WHAT I WAS SAYING

IS PART OF WHAT I WAS SAYING BEFORE -- YOU’LL SEE MANY, MANY

BEFORE -- YOU’LL SEE MANY, MANY BUSINESSES SIMPLY SHUT DOWN AND

BUSINESSES SIMPLY SHUT DOWN AND NOT BE ABLE TO REOPEN.

NOT BE ABLE TO REOPEN. THAT IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF

THAT IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF DESTRUCTION TO THE ECONOMY.

DESTRUCTION TO THE ECONOMY. IT’LL BE HARD TO UNTANGLE.

IT’LL BE HARD TO UNTANGLE. >> SO, STEVE, JUST ALSO TRYING

>> SO, STEVE, JUST ALSO TRYING TO MAP THIS OUT, DON’T YOU NEED

TO MAP THIS OUT, DON’T YOU NEED TWO IMPORTANT FACTORS AS YOU

TWO IMPORTANT FACTORS AS YOU LOOK INTO THE FUTURE AS TO HOW

LOOK INTO THE FUTURE AS TO HOW BAD THIS -- CAN I USE THE WORD

BAD THIS -- CAN I USE THE WORD DEPRESSION -- WILL LOOK LIKE?

DEPRESSION -- WILL LOOK LIKE? WITHOUT REALLY CONSISTENT,

WITHOUT REALLY CONSISTENT, COMPLETE TESTING ACROSS THE

COMPLETE TESTING ACROSS THE BOARD, WHERE YOU HAVE RAPID

BOARD, WHERE YOU HAVE RAPID TESTING FOR THE CORONAVIRUS, AS

TESTING FOR THE CORONAVIRUS, AS WELL AS THE ANTIBODY TESTING, TO

WELL AS THE ANTIBODY TESTING, TO KNOW IF SOMEBODY HAS HAD IT

KNOW IF SOMEBODY HAS HAD IT BEFORE.

BEFORE. IF YOU DON’T HAVE THAT, ALONG

IF YOU DON’T HAVE THAT, ALONG WITH A VACCINE, HOW CAN YOU SEE

WITH A VACCINE, HOW CAN YOU SEE INTO THE FUTURE, TOO FAR INTO

INTO THE FUTURE, TOO FAR INTO IT, TO SEE HOW BAD THIS IS GOING

IT, TO SEE HOW BAD THIS IS GOING TO GET?

TO GET? HOW IMPORTANT ARE THOSE TWO

HOW IMPORTANT ARE THOSE TWO FACTORS?

FACTORS? >> CRITICALLY IMPORTANT.

>> CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. FIRST, TO GO BACK A STEP, I

FIRST, TO GO BACK A STEP, I THINK SOMEONE SAID THIS WAS NOT

THINK SOMEONE SAID THIS WAS NOT SELF-INFLICTED.

SELF-INFLICTED. THAT’S ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

THAT’S ABSOLUTELY TRUE. THE VIRUS WAS NOT

THE VIRUS WAS NOT SELF-INFLICTED.

SELF-INFLICTED. IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER AND MORE

IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SOCIAL

AGGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SOCIAL DISTANCING, ALL THE POLICIES

DISTANCING, ALL THE POLICIES THAT ARE SLOWLY AND HALTINGLY,

THAT ARE SLOWLY AND HALTINGLY, AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE

AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE LAST 15 MINUTES, COME INTO

LAST 15 MINUTES, COME INTO PLACE, IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER,

PLACE, IF WE HAD MOVED FASTER, AS CHINA ULTIMATELY DID, WE

AS CHINA ULTIMATELY DID, WE WOULD HAVE SEEN, I THINK, BETTER

WOULD HAVE SEEN, I THINK, BETTER NUMBERS ON JOBS THAN WHAT WE’RE

NUMBERS ON JOBS THAN WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT HERE, BETTER NUMBERS

LOOKING AT HERE, BETTER NUMBERS ON THE ECONOMY.

ON THE ECONOMY. WE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET PEOPLE BACK TO WORK.

PEOPLE BACK TO WORK. YES, FROM AN ECONOMIC POINT OF

YES, FROM AN ECONOMIC POINT OF VIEW, WHAT YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE

VIEW, WHAT YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO KNOW, AND WE DON’T KNOW, BUT

TO KNOW, AND WE DON’T KNOW, BUT YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A

YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A VIEW ABOUT IS HOW QUICKLY PEOPLE

VIEW ABOUT IS HOW QUICKLY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET BACK TO WORK.

ARE GOING TO GET BACK TO WORK. THAT, IN TURN, MAY REVOLVE, TO

THAT, IN TURN, MAY REVOLVE, TO SOME DEGREE, AROUND HOW SOON

SOME DEGREE, AROUND HOW SOON THERE ARE VACCINES AVAILABLE,

THERE ARE VACCINES AVAILABLE, ANTIBODY TESTING, WHEN PEOPLE

ANTIBODY TESTING, WHEN PEOPLE FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING BACK TO

FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING BACK TO WORK.

WORK. NO ECONOMIST WOULD PROFESS

NO ECONOMIST WOULD PROFESS SPECIAL INSIGHT INTO THAT.

SPECIAL INSIGHT INTO THAT. PUBLIC HEALTH PEOPLE DO.

PUBLIC HEALTH PEOPLE DO. AS YOU KNOW, AND AS WE LISTEN TO

AS YOU KNOW, AND AS WE LISTEN TO THEM, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS FOR

THEM, NOBODY REALLY KNOWS FOR SURE.

SURE. SO WE’RE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE

SO WE’RE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE PUBLIC HEALTH SIDE OF THIS THING

PUBLIC HEALTH SIDE OF THIS THING WORKING FOR THE ECONOMY TO WORK.

WORKING FOR THE ECONOMY TO WORK. IF WE CAN’T SOLVE THE PUBLIC

IF WE CAN’T SOLVE THE PUBLIC HEALTH SIDE, GET PEOPLE TO A

HEALTH SIDE, GET PEOPLE TO A PLACE WHERE THEY’RE COMFORTABLE

PLACE WHERE THEY’RE COMFORTABLE GOING BACK TO WORK, THE NUMBERS

GOING BACK TO WORK, THE NUMBERS I SHOWED YOU COULD BE WORSE.

I SHOWED YOU COULD BE WORSE. IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE.

IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE. >> STEVE RATTNER, THANK YOU VERY

>> STEVE RATTNER, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

MUCH. >>> STILL AHEAD ON "MORNING

>>> STILL AHEAD ON "MORNING JOE," THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK

JOE," THE MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY, BILL de BLASIO, IS OUR

CITY, BILL de BLASIO, IS OUR GUEST.

GUEST. >>> PLUS, WE’LL SWING OVER TO

>>> PLUS, WE’LL SWING OVER TO LONDON FOR THE VERY LATEST ON

LONDON FOR THE VERY LATEST ON THE OVERSEAS BATTLE AGAINST THE

THE OVERSEAS BATTLE AGAINST THE VIRUS AND HOW IT COMPARES TO

VIRUS AND HOW IT COMPARES TO HERE AT HOME.

HERE AT HOME. >>> FIRST, THE NAVY JUST

>>> FIRST, THE NAVY JUST RELIEVED A CAPTAIN WHO RAISED

RELIEVED A CAPTAIN WHO RAISED ALARMS ABOUT A CORONAVIRUS

ALARMS ABOUT A CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK ON AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER.

OUTBREAK ON AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER. NBC’S COURTNEY KUBE HAS THAT

NBC’S COURTNEY KUBE HAS THAT REPORTING NEXT.

REPORTING NEXT. YOU’RE WATCHING "MORNING JOE."