PlanB Bitcoin Prediction October 2024

Summary

In this video, the host discusses Bitcoin's unusual sideways market over the past eight months, remaining between $60k to $70k. He explores possible reasons behind this, dismissing long-term manipulation and pointing to factors such as early ETF-driven pumps and upcoming U.S. elections influencing market trends. Historical patterns around Bitcoin halvings and the RSI are compared, suggesting that patience is needed for the next significant price move. The analysis implies that Bitcoin's current stagnation is typical of long accumulation phases before sharp upward movements following halvings.

Takeaways

• 📉 Bitcoin has been in a sideways market for eight months, staying in a trading range between $60K and $70K, which is unusual for a bull market.
• 🔴 Despite the sideways movement, Bitcoin is still in a bull market, with a 'Red Dot' signal typically indicating upward trends during historical bull markets.
• 📊 The unusual price movement could be due to a pre-halving pump triggered by ETF speculation, rather than typical gradual accumulation phases.
• 📈 Bitcoin's current behavior mirrors a similar pre-halving pump observed in 2019-2020, followed by a flat period, but eventually resulting in a bull market.
• 🏦 Larger buyers and institutions might be waiting for clarity after the U.S. elections in November, which could trigger the next Bitcoin rally.
• 📅 The Moving Average chart shows that Bitcoin is still trading above the 200-week moving average, which is historically a good sign for potential future growth.
• 📉 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart reveals a close alignment with historical patterns, suggesting Bitcoin is near its historical average RSI value, around 65.
• 💡 The current flat market could be masking a rising trend, as a gradual increase would appear less noisy compared to the recent ETF-related volatility.
• 🔗 The Bitcoin realized price, tracking historical cost basis, shows an upward trend across various time frames, indicating long-term accumulation.
• ⏳ Historically, Bitcoin has had long flat periods followed by sudden, significant price jumps, often triggered by halving events, emphasizing the need for patience.

Q & A

What is the significance of Bitcoin's price being stuck in the $60k to $70k range for 8 months?

The sideways movement in this price range is unusual in a bull market. Historically, Bitcoin prices rise during bull markets, but the flat period of 8 months suggests something different might be at play, such as early pre-halving effects or market dynamics beyond simple manipulation.

Why does the speaker dismiss manipulation as the cause of the flat market?

The speaker believes that manipulation cannot explain such a long, 8-month period of flat market movement. Instead, they suggest other factors, like an early pre-halving pump, might be the reason for this anomaly.

What does the speaker suggest might have caused the early pre-halving pump?

The speaker suggests that the excitement around ETFs and their impact on the market led to an early pre-halving pump, with Bitcoin's price jumping from $20k to $40k and then stabilizing between $60k and $70k. This behavior was unexpected and doesn't follow typical bull market patterns.

How does the moving average chart relate to Bitcoin's price behavior?

The moving average chart smooths out price noise and shows that despite the flat market, Bitcoin's price has remained above the 200-week moving average for the past 8 months. This suggests that, despite the flat period, the overall trend remains upward.

What similarities does the speaker draw between the current flat period and past Bitcoin price cycles?

The speaker compares the current flat period to similar phases in 2015 and 2019-2020, which also saw price stagnation following early pumps before eventual growth. These historical patterns offer insight into the current market dynamics.

What role do the upcoming US elections play in Bitcoin's current market behavior?

The speaker mentions that large buyers may be waiting for the outcome of the US elections, which could cause uncertainty. A Democratic win, particularly a Biden-Harris victory, is perceived as negative for Bitcoin, which might be why some investors are holding off on making significant moves.

How does the RSI (Relative Strength Index) support the speaker’s analysis?

The RSI, which tracks the strength of price movements, shows that Bitcoin’s current RSI is close to the historical average of 65. This suggests the current flat price movement may just be noise within a broader rising trend, supporting the idea that the market is still fundamentally strong.

What does the speaker mean by saying 'Bitcoin is the next stablecoin'?

The speaker humorously notes that Bitcoin's stable price movement in the $60k range for 8 months gives the impression of it being like a stablecoin, which is usually characterized by price stability. This stability contrasts with Bitcoin's usual volatility.

What is the importance of the realized price metrics in understanding Bitcoin's market?

The realized price, which reflects the average cost at which all Bitcoin was purchased, shows that both short-term and long-term buyers are holding at higher levels. This indicates underlying strength in the market, despite the flat price movement.

What is the significance of the 'four-year cycle' in Bitcoin’s price movements?

The four-year cycle is linked to Bitcoin's halving events, where price jumps typically occur after long periods of stability. The speaker emphasizes that patience is key, as Bitcoin's price historically makes large moves after these long, flat periods.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin’s Unusual Flat Market

The video starts by discussing Bitcoin’s sideways bull market, where Bitcoin has stayed in the $60k-$70k range for 8 months, which is considered strange for a bull market. Historically, bull markets push prices higher, but this time it seems different. The presenter does not believe manipulation is responsible, pointing instead to the possibility of an early pre-halving pump driven by ETF speculation. Normally, the price increases gradually, but in this case, it shot up quickly and then flattened. This situation feels unusual and unsettling compared to previous cycles.

05:01

📊 Moving Averages and Halving Cycles

The presenter examines Bitcoin’s movement against the 200-week moving average, highlighting how the current eight-month flat period is above the moving average. A similar period occurred in 2019-2020, making the current phase comparable to previous cycles. The moving average continues to rise, which is seen as a positive sign. The speaker believes that many large investors may be waiting for the outcome of the U.S. elections before making big moves, as political uncertainty could affect the market, with the possibility of a Democratic victory seen as unfavorable for Bitcoin.

10:04

📉 Relative Strength Index and Market Noise

The speaker introduces the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and its relationship with Bitcoin’s price movements. The chart shows a black line representing the average RSI of 65, and the current RSI is at 63, which is close to historical averages. The presenter highlights how previous bull markets, especially in 2013 and 2020, experienced noisy and unpredictable movements around the RSI, but the moving average remained stable. This current flat period is described as front-running the next halving event, similar to how the market behaved in 2019.

🪙 Realized Prices and Bitcoin’s Stability

The discussion moves on to the realized price, which represents the average cost of Bitcoin over its history. There are three realized price metrics on the chart: the entire history (at $32,000), the two-year realized price (at $51,000), and the five-month realized price (at $63,000). The speaker jokingly refers to Bitcoin as the 'new stablecoin' due to the extended flat period, comparing this phase to similar ones in the past, like 2019-2020 and 2014-2016, which made people doubt the possibility of future bull markets.

⏳ Patience and the Four-Year Cycle

In the final part, the speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin often stays in long, flat trading ranges, where nothing seems to happen, and then experiences short, explosive growth after halving events. These cycles are a hallmark of Bitcoin’s price history, and patience is required to wait for the next big move. The 'stepwise' nature of Bitcoin’s price, where long periods of stability are followed by significant jumps, is seen as a fundamental feature, and the speaker believes the next pump will come when the time is right.

Keywords

💡Bull market

A bull market refers to a period during which prices in financial markets are rising or expected to rise, typically by 20% or more. In the context of the video, the speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin is still in a bull market, even though it is currently experiencing a prolonged sideways movement, which is unusual for such markets.

💡Sideways market

A sideways market is a phase where an asset's price stays within a relatively narrow range without showing a clear upward or downward trend. The speaker mentions that Bitcoin has been in a sideways market for eight months, hovering between $60,000 and $70,000, which contrasts with previous bull markets where prices consistently rose.

💡Pre-halving pump

A pre-halving pump refers to an increase in Bitcoin's price before the halving event, when the block reward for miners is reduced by half, typically leading to increased scarcity and a subsequent price rise. The speaker suggests that the current market stagnation could be due to an 'early pre-halving pump' caused by speculation surrounding ETFs and the upcoming halving event.

💡Moving average

A moving average is a statistical indicator used to smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price over a specific time period. In the video, the speaker refers to the 200-week moving average to illustrate that despite Bitcoin's sideways movement, it remains above this key level, which suggests that the market is still healthy.

💡RSI (Relative Strength Index)

The RSI is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the speed and change of price movements. A high RSI suggests that an asset is overbought, while a low RSI indicates it is oversold. In the video, the speaker highlights that Bitcoin's current RSI is close to its average, indicating that the sideways market is not necessarily a sign of weakness.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds traded on stock exchanges, similar to stocks, that typically hold assets like stocks, commodities, or bonds. In the video, the speaker notes that the approval of Bitcoin-related ETFs might have caused the early pre-halving pump, as investors anticipate institutional adoption and increased liquidity.

💡Halving

Bitcoin halving is the event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created. The speaker references past halving events in 2016, 2020, and the upcoming one in 2024, noting that halving typically triggers price increases due to the reduction in supply.

💡Realized price

Realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin was last moved on-chain. It reflects the cost basis for all market participants. The video mentions different realized price measures, such as the 2-year and 5-month realized prices, which help gauge the profitability of Bitcoin holders over various time periods.

💡Stock-to-flow model

The stock-to-flow model is a framework used to predict Bitcoin's price based on its scarcity, by comparing its stock (total supply) to its flow (new supply). The speaker touches on this model, which gained attention during the previous bull markets, and suggests that the flat market is a temporary phase in Bitcoin’s overall cyclical growth.

💡US elections

The US elections are a recurring political event that can have significant impacts on financial markets due to policy changes and market sentiment. The speaker speculates that many large Bitcoin investors (or 'whales') might be holding off major investments until the outcome of the 2024 US elections, waiting for more clarity before making big moves.

Highlights

Bitcoin closed September at 63,000, marking eight months of trading in the 60k to 70k range, which is unusual for a bull market.

Despite the sideways movement, the market is still considered a bull market due to the 'Red Dot' indicator, typically signaling price increases.

The pre-halving pump, partly driven by ETF speculation, might explain the rapid price jump from 20k to 73k, followed by eight months of flat movement.

Historically, accumulation phases are steady or rising, making this sharp rise unusual and contributing to the current flat market.

The 200-week moving average is increasing, and Bitcoin remains above this key indicator, suggesting continued upward potential despite current stagnation.

Some large investors are waiting for the U.S. elections for clarity before making major moves, as the outcome could impact Bitcoin prices.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is close to its historical average of 65, and current levels around 63 suggest a stable market rather than an imminent bear trend.

In previous bull markets, the RSI tracked cleanly with the moving average, but now there is more noise and volatility around the moving average.

The Bitcoin realized price, representing the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders, is rising across different timeframes, with the five-month average at 63,000.

A comparison is made to the 2019-2020 market, where a pre-halving pump occurred, followed by a correction due to external events like the COVID pandemic.

Bitcoin’s sideways movement over the past eight months could be optical—disguising a rising trend beneath the market noise.

The presenter describes Bitcoin as a ‘stable coin’ during this flat period, comparing it to similar flat periods in previous cycles before halving events.

Previous flat periods in Bitcoin history (e.g., 2014-2016, 2019-2020) were often followed by significant price increases, reinforcing the cyclical nature of Bitcoin.

The stock-to-flow model's nonlinear, stepwise function is highlighted, predicting fundamental growth after halving events, despite long waiting periods.

The ‘Bitcoin, do something’ meme is referenced, symbolizing the frustration many feel during these long, flat periods, yet history shows that patience pays off in the long run.

Transcripts

welcome back to plan B on YouTube so

what's up with this weird sideways bull

market is it manipulation is it

something else let's discuss this first

chart and uh you know Bitcoin closed

September at 63,000 and it's the eighth

month in a row that it's in a 60k to 70k

trading range it's really weird uh and

it never happened before normally the

bull markets yes it is still in the bull

market because it's red Red Dot bull

market and normally bull market means

price go up historically when it's red

when it's bull market prices went up in

2011 2013 2017 and

202

2021 but not now now it's sideways and

well you know I I do not believe in in

manipulation yes it can be manipulation

but not for 8 months that's something

different at work I think so another

explanation could be that we had a too

early preh haling pump because of the

ETFs and the the halfing was somewhere

here around

April and we had a we even had a alltime

high a new alltime high before the

halfing uh which had now never happened

before but basically we pumped from the

bottom

um around 20K to 40K 60k

73k and and and that is something that's

unusual because normally the

accumulation phases are quite stable or

Rising but not that fast uh so yeah that

that could be it um a preh halfing too

early pump uh but surely and and surely

you know it it would have felt different

if we had an increase that that would go

gradually from this 20K to 63k instead

of this jump here this ETF jump and then

flat for eight months which which feels

weird but uh the same result with a

gradual increase would have felt a lot

different although the end outcome would

be exactly the

same so what can

we see in the moving average chart the

moving average chart is uh well it shows

the same thing it has this this eight

month flat period here note by the way

that the color is different in the

moving average chart it's months until

the next halfing not the the phase we're

in not the bull bare Market it's just a

timer and the halfing is at month zero

so when Blue switches to red so this is

a halfing in 2016 this is one in 2020

and this is the latest in uh

2024 and well as we can see there was a

flat period in 2015 as well uh quite

long more than half a year I think it's

also eight months here uh but that was a

bare Market of course uh at at around uh

250k um more comparable I think is this

that period here in 2019

2020 uh that's around 10,000 little

under 10,000 dollars and uh and also um

a a period with a halfing in there

so that that's very comparable I think

to we are where we are right now because

um we we back then we also had this preh

halfing too early pump and then Co that

that that really uh spoiled the party

but it was basically a one month uh

event in the end because the the money

printer went on the QE was started and

then that was the trigger for the for

the entire bull market of course Michael

sailor uh uh started buying Bitcoin here

and and later Elon

Musk

um went positive on on bitcoin but that

was that was sort of the trigger and

it's a bit of the

same period same

preing pump situation above the moving

average so this black line of course is

is the moving average and we use it to

smooth out the

noise um right now it's it's

40K and and Bitcoin for the entire eight

months flat period is above that that

200 we moving average same here in 2019

2020

so yeah um moving average is increasing

just like back then it's still

increasing so as long as it's increasing

it's okay in my

opinion um and Bitcoin will find its

trigger for the next pump and I have

heard that many large buyers are just

waiting for the US elections in November

that makes sense because why run the

risk if you can wait a couple of weeks

weeks and have total Clarity um and and

uncertainty and the risk obviously being

uh a democratic Biden Harris win which

is which is bad for Bitcoin so Wales

waiting for the US elections could very

well be the reason for this eight-month

sideways priv movement just one

explanation so we look at SS RSI the

relative strength index this chart looks

a little bit different uh because I

added this moving average 12 month

moving average in there and the

background has this uh black line in the

middle at

65 which is about the average RSI

through the history of Bitcoin and the

bare and B bull markets Dan around this

black line so right now

the uh RSI is 63 so very close to this

average of 65 this black line and what

we see is that um this moving average

again Smooths out all the noise and for

example here it was a very clean period

where the the actual RSI numbers

followed the moving average uh track the

moving average I should say quite well

but here in 200

13 this this bull market was quite noisy

and uh the the the moving average tracks

right through it but there is H there is

months way above this this this moving

average and months uh way below and the

same is true for example for 2019 and

2020 and we talked about this period uh

before at at the moving average uh sheet

and we see it's very very noisy there we

had it's pre haling uh pump too early

then a correction and then of course CO

as a kind of well Black Swan uh which

really put a dent even in the moving

average but the moving average kept

rising and rising and then here in the

bull market it's it's all on track again

and actually see the same thing right

now um back then it it felt like front

running in 2019 front running the

halfing that was all talk about about

the halfing and and and stock to flow of

course which was published here uh so

there was talk about front running we

have that same talk about front running

right now um with the ETFs where retail

had the opportunity to front run Wall

Street uh for the first time so we had

this too early before for the halfing uh

pump and then of course there was this

dump uh after the halfing because of

government selling Mount GA

selling uh but all in all moving average

was pretty pretty

stable um and Rising so in my opinion um

the flat bull market that we see in the

price can be just Optics a trend a trend

a rising Trend disguised by noise and

mixed signal because if this were a

gradual growth from all the way from

from 15 to the current

63,000 bitcoin price then the RSI would

be uh not this noisy and uh and we would

be not that confused about about this

this uh sideways bitcoin price

next chart and now it becomes really

interesting this is the Bitcoin realized

price so that's like the average cost

price of Bitcoin and there's three

realized prices in this chart the

realized price that looks at the whole

history price history is uh 32,000 at

the moment and Rising the 2-year

realized price that only looks at the

last two year and and the Bitcoins that

were bought in those two years the cost

price of those Bitcoins is at uh

51,000 um at the end of September and

rising and the Very shortterm five Monon

realiz price light blue light blue line

is at 63 and

Rising well it's it's sort of flat but

last month it it did rise a little bit

so um I tweeted about this

earlier and and I said uh maybe you

remember it Bitcoin is the next stable

coin is now a stable coin because of

this 8mon flat period And I also tweeted

60,000 is the new

10,000 why did I tweet that

because this

2019 2020 period that we talked about

before in the moving average chart and

the RSI

chart um it it felt exactly the same

like right now it felt like boring

Flatline uh there will never be a bu

Market again stock to flow failed uh

Bitcoin is dead whatever actually if you

go further back uh we had that same

boring uh period in 2014 to

2016 at a much lower level of course it

was uh about 400 500 at the time

and even uh before that in 2012 there

was a period where Bitcoin and and also

in the bare Market of course but where

the where that that flat period was uh

make making people think like there

would would never be a bull market again

and yeah this this is

basically my opinion about this flat

bull market at the moment I think

Bitcoin is most of the time in a boring

Flatline situation and uh in fact three

of the four years are boring and nothing

and just some very short periods just

after the

halfing um caused

those big jumps in price those big

fundamental and structural jumps in

price fundamental structural because

Bitcoin jump up and does not return of

course there is a crash after a big pump

every time um but it will never return

to that original level and uh yeah well

so in fact it's it's it's just a matter

of some patience and there's even it's

even so common that uh that there is a

um a meeme of this but we we'll get to

that later but this stepwise function of

a long wait and then a short pump after

the haling long waight haling pump long

waight we just had this

haling that of course is the very basis

the core of the stock to flow model

nonlinear

stepwise and after the halfing

fundamental uh growth that yeah that

that is the signature of the the

fouryear cycle and the meme that comes

with that is come on bitcoin do

something and that's a very old meme by

the way so it's still valued and and

true today and uh so in my opinion the

trading range is quite normal the

training range that we're in right now

and patience is needed so in my opinion

the pump will come at uh well the time

that Bitcoin thinks it's right thank you

very much and see you next time