Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear sites? Hear what expert thinks

Summary

The video transcript discusses the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, focusing on potential Iranian nuclear threats and Israeli military responses. Israeli officials are concerned about Iran's nuclear capabilities, though it's believed Iran is still 1-2 years away from developing a nuclear weapon. Israel may take this opportunity to target Iran's nuclear program, especially with Hezbollah's forces weakened. The U.S. and Israel appear to be aligned in their response, with U.S. military assets pre-positioned to support Israel, as Iranian missile attacks and ground operations in Lebanon continue to unfold.

Takeaways

• 🔴 Israel views Iran's nuclear program as a major threat, but Israeli intelligence estimates Iran is still 1-2 years away from having a nuclear missile.
• 🛡️ The Israeli security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker to discuss potential responses to a recent Iranian attack.
• 💣 There are expectations of a strong Israeli military retaliation, more severe than previous responses.
• 📅 Over the years, Israel has considered preemptively striking Iran's nuclear facilities, and the current situation may provide justification for such an action.
• 🔄 The current Israeli Defense Force leadership appears more willing to consider a strike on Iran than previous leadership.
• 🇺🇸 Despite some past tensions, the U.S. and Israel are aligned in their approach to the recent escalation and have been coordinating closely.
• 🛑 The Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to prevent escalation and has been closely monitoring the situation with Iran.
• ⚔️ The U.S. has pre-positioned military assets, including fighter jets and warships, in the region to deter further Iranian aggression and support Israel if necessary.
• 🚨 Israel has launched ground operations in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, significantly weakening their capabilities.
• ✈️ Fighter jets continue to operate in northern Israel, targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon as tensions remain high in the region.

Q & A

What is the main concern expressed by the speaker regarding Iran?

The main concern is the potential for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb and the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel. Although Iran has not yet developed a nuclear weapon, Israeli intelligence suggests they could have a deployable device within 1 to 2 years.

What is the current status of Iran’s nuclear capability according to Israeli intelligence?

According to Israeli intelligence, Iran is still approximately 1 to 2 years away from building a nuclear device that can be placed on a missile and launched.

How is Israel likely to respond to the recent Iranian attack?

Israel is expected to respond very severely to the Iranian attack, with a much stronger reaction than previous responses, which involved limited actions such as targeting a single anti-aircraft battery.

Why might this be an opportune moment for Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear program?

There is a sense that the current situation, including weakened Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, might provide Israel with an opportunity to launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

How has the U.S. responded to the Israeli actions in recent weeks?

Despite initial concerns over a lack of consultation, the U.S. has supported Israel’s actions, including its recent ground operations in southern Lebanon. There seems to be no major disagreement between the U.S. and Israel regarding their actions in the region.

What assets has the U.S. pre-positioned in the region to support Israel?

The U.S. has pre-positioned assets including a destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean, a carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea, and fighter jets to assist Israel and deter further escalation.

What role did the Israeli military base in southern Israel play in recent events?

The base in southern Israel, which was targeted by Iran, is a significant facility for the Israeli Air Force. It was involved in a recent mission targeting the Houthis in Yemen, sending a message to Iran to stay out of the conflict.

How has Hezbollah’s position changed in the recent conflict?

Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities have been significantly weakened, which reduces the threat they pose to Israel and may give Israel more flexibility in responding to Iran.

What was the focus of President Biden’s recent briefings on the situation?

President Biden and Vice President Harris were briefed on the situation, focusing on how the U.S. could continue supporting Israel, particularly by assisting with missile defense and other military operations.

What is the current situation for Israeli citizens in Tel Aviv after the Iranian attack?

Israeli citizens in the Tel Aviv area were told by the military that they could leave their shelters after the immediate threat from the Iranian missile attack had subsided.

Outlines

00:00

🛑 Israeli Concerns Over Potential Iranian Nuclear Strike

The discussion revolves around Israel's concerns about Iran's advancing nuclear program. Although Iran is not currently capable of launching a nuclear strike, Israeli intelligence estimates it may take 1-2 years for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. The Israeli security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker to address the situation, with expectations of a severe Israeli response. The conversation touches on past Israeli strategies to disrupt Iran's nuclear capabilities and speculates on the likelihood of a preemptive Israeli strike.

05:01

⚠️ U.S. Response and Support for Israel Amid Rising Tensions

This section outlines U.S. involvement in the ongoing conflict, focusing on President Biden's briefings and coordination with Vice President Harris on assisting Israel. The U.S. is providing defense systems and resources to help Israel counter Iranian missile attacks. Despite diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation, the Biden administration has faced challenges in averting a wider war, especially following a series of high-profile Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. U.S. military assets have been deployed to the region, signaling strong support for Israel.

10:03

💥 Iranian Retaliation and Israel's Strategic Calculations

This paragraph highlights the Iranian missile attack on an Israeli airbase and the broader implications of Iran’s actions. Despite previous warnings, Iran’s targeting of a significant Israeli airbase represents a shift in tactics. Israeli officials are now faced with calculating their next steps, especially given the diminished threat from Hezbollah, which has suffered heavy losses. The weakened position of Hezbollah could enable Israel to focus more on Iran without fear of immediate retaliation from Lebanon.

Keywords

💡Iranian Nuclear Threat

The potential for Iran to develop and use a nuclear weapon, seen as the greatest existential threat to Israel. The script mentions Iran's ongoing nuclear development and estimates that it may take 1-2 years for Iran to create a nuclear weapon capable of being deployed on a missile. This threat is a central concern for both Israeli and global security.

💡Israeli Security Cabinet

A group of top Israeli officials tasked with deciding national security strategies. In the script, they are convened in an underground bunker near Jerusalem to assess the threat from Iran and consider Israel's response, illustrating the high level of concern and preparation for potential conflict.

💡Preemptive Strike

The concept of attacking an enemy before they can strike first. The Israelis have long considered preemptively targeting Iran's nuclear program to prevent it from becoming operational. This idea is a key part of Israel’s defense strategy in the face of growing Iranian capabilities.

💡Iranian Ballistic Missiles

Long-range missiles that Iran has used to target Israel. The script discusses Iran’s recent missile strikes on Israel, highlighting the immediate military threat Iran poses through its missile arsenal, despite not having nuclear capabilities yet.

💡Hezbollah

A militant group backed by Iran, operating primarily in Lebanon. The group is central to Iran's strategy of proxy warfare against Israel. The script notes Hezbollah’s weakened position after Israeli operations, which may give Israel more room to act against Iran directly.

💡U.S.-Israel Relations

The diplomatic and military partnership between the United States and Israel, particularly in times of regional conflict. The script highlights the close coordination between the two nations, especially in responding to Iranian attacks and managing tensions in the Middle East.

💡Israeli Ground Offensive

Israel’s military strategy of sending troops into enemy territory, as seen in its recent operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. The script mentions this as a shift in tactics, signaling a more aggressive stance by Israel in the region.

💡Diplomatic Efforts

The U.S. and other global powers' attempts to mediate peace and prevent escalation in the Middle East. The script describes how the Biden administration has been working to broker ceasefire agreements to prevent a wider regional war, though these efforts have been unsuccessful.

💡Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, known for his hardline stance against Iran’s nuclear program. The script references his long-standing interest in a preemptive strike against Iran, noting that current conditions may be favorable for such a decision.

💡Israeli Air Force

The branch of the Israeli military responsible for air defense and offensive operations. The script mentions the strategic importance of Israeli air bases targeted by Iran, underscoring the role of air power in Israel’s defense strategy, particularly in its operations against Iranian proxies.

Highlights

Israeli security cabinet meeting in an underground bunker to discuss potential threats and responses.

Israeli intelligence suggests Iran will need 1-2 years to build a nuclear weapon capable of being launched.

Israel is expected to have a severe response to the Iranian attack, unlike the limited response in April.

Israeli officials have long considered a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capability.

Current Israeli Defense Force (IDF) leadership may be more willing to recommend an attack on Iran's nuclear program.

U.S. and Israel have grown closer in their approach to regional events, despite past lack of prior consultation.

The U.S. has been deploying military assets to support Israel, including destroyers and fighter jets.

President Biden has directed U.S. support for Israel's defense against Iranian missile attacks.

The Biden administration has been trying to advance ceasefire proposals for Gaza and Lebanon, but without success.

Israel initiated a ground operation in southern Lebanon with no significant U.S. criticism.

The Israeli military has announced that Tel Aviv residents can leave their shelters.

Israeli fighter jets are engaged in operations in Lebanon following the Iranian attack.

An important Israeli airbase targeted by Iran is significant for its use in refueling missions and targeting missions.

Iran's hesitancy to support Hezbollah may have made Israel see this as an opportune moment to target Iran.

Hezbollah's weakened state may provide Israel a stronger position for retaliation against Iran.

Transcripts

I want to bring

in CNN political and global affairs

analyst, Barack Ravid right now. Barak

What do you anticipate?

because as you know

and as I know and as Anderson knows,

the Israelis have always suggested

that the greatest potential threat

to Israel from all over the area,

would be an Iranian nuclear

strike against Israel.

Iran has been working

on a nuclear bomb, as we all know,

and they're getting closer and closer.

How worried should

the world be right now

about that type of Iranian attack

against Israel?

I Wolf,

well,

the Israeli security

cabinet is sitting right now

in, underground bunker in the mountains

near Jerusalem to discuss exactly that,

whether there could be

another attack from Iran

and what's going to be

the Israeli response to the attack.

We just saw,

the Iranians

obviously still do not have,

a nuclear weapon, Israeli intelligence,

services

saying that it will take them at least

another between 1 to 2 years to build,

a nuclear device

that you can put on a missile and launch.

So in that sense,

there's no such threat at the moment.

But I think what we're going to see in

the next few hours

is a very, very severe response

from Israel to this Iranian attack

that will not look in any way

like the Israeli response

to the Iranian attack in April.

That was just launching one missile

at one anti-aircraft,

battery in an air base in near Isfahan.

I think we're going to see a very,

very serious response.

I think you're absolutely right.

And I asked the question

about the nuclear,

potential there, Barak,

because as you well know

and as I know, over the years,

the Israelis have always said,

that they would love an opportunity

to preempt

and destroy

Iran's potential nuclear capability.

there have been many top Israeli

military officials and others

who have said,

you know,

that the Israelis should do

so before

before Iran actually has a nuclear bomb.

what are the prospects,

do you think that even though

Iran is not yet

capable of launching a nuclear

strike at Israel,

Israel would use this moment

to try to undermine

Iran's nuclear capability?

We've know over the past few years,

Israel has attacked various

Iranian nuclear scientists, among others.

I think the

Iranian attack today gave,

all the justification

to the Israeli government

to go ahead with what you just described.

and for many years,

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

was thinking about such a move.

And the conditions right now,

I think, are

maybe more mature than any time before

for an Israeli attack against Israel,

against the Iranian nuclear program,

especially that one of the problems

Netanyahu had over

the years

was that the IDF was very hesitant

from taking such a step.

The current IDF leadership

is in a different place right now,

and it is, I think, very much willing,

to consider such a move

and to even recommend

such a move to the Israeli cabinet.

Barak, you

you have excellent

Israeli sources and excellent U.S.

sources. How serious is the tension?

how serious is the disagreement over

what's going on?

Right now between the U.S. and Israel?

I honestly, I don't

think there's a disagreement.

I think that in the last few days,

or in the last two weeks

since the major attacks,

I think the U.S.

and Israel

has been actually getting closer

when it comes to their thinking

about what's going on in the region.

the U.S.

was definitely unhappy

by the fact that the major attacks

and the Walkie-Talkie attacks

and the Nasrallah assassination

all happened without,

a prior notice and without consultation.

But at the same time, I haven't heard

even one, senior U.S.

official who was involved

in the decision making,

who does not think that

those Israeli attacks

were, at the end of the day,

the right thing to do?

And even when it comes to the ground

operation, Israel

started in southern Lebanon yesterday.

I haven't heard from any,

significant U.S.

official who was in the decision

making any criticism

about this ground operation.

Quite the contrary.

So I think that in many ways,

in the last two weeks,

the,

Israeli government and the white House,

regardless of the fact that there are,

you know, personal issues between Biden and. Yeah.

But overall,

I do not think that there are,

you know, major tensions or crises

right now. I think actually the opposite.

I want to go to the white House.

And Kayla,

she so I understand

President Biden was in

briefings this morning.

He was in

briefings this morning

with his national security team

and with Vice President Harris.

And we've learned, Anderson,

that the vice president

and the president together

were in the situation

monitoring these attacks

as they were carried out

by Iran and plotting how the U.S.

would continue coming to Israel's

defense and national security

spokesperson saying that

President Biden directed the U.S.

to continue

assisting Israel in shooting down

the missiles that Iran was firing

and to

continue to provide

those defenses to Israel.

But what's interesting,

Anderson and Wolf, is that this comes

after nearly a year of

ambivalence and hand-wringing

by the administration, fears

that there would be escalation

that would lead to a wider war,

and their diplomatic efforts

have really had the primary goal

of trying to thwart that from happening.

And in recent weeks,

they've been bracing for that potential,

starting with the

the targeted strike

that killed the political leader

of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in late July.

Then followed by several other attacks

that were carried out the pager

and walkie talkie attack

against several Hezbollah

leaders in Lebanon.

And then some of these raids in Lebanon

and then the

the killing of the leader of Hezbollah.

Obviously, this is all reached

a fever pitch

at a time when the Biden administration

has been working

feverishly behind the scenes

to advance ceasefire proposals,

both for war in Gaza

as well as the escalating situation

in Lebanon.

And those efforts

have continued to remain elusive.

So now, as we await concurrent briefings

from the Pentagon,

the State Department

and the white House,

there is still a very large question

of how the administration

can move forward

with its diplomatic efforts, at a time

when it appears that it's its potency

with the Israeli government

and the advice

that it's been trying to get behind

the scenes has fallen on deaf ears.

Anderson.

Wolf,

you the white House

watch Wolf, we know that the U.S.

has pre-positioned,

more assets in the region.

Destroyer in the eastern Mediterranean,

carrier strike group

in the Arabian Sea,

as well as fighter jets.

Clearly,

that the desire of the U.S.,

the intention,

the objective of that major

deployment of troops and equipment

by the United States

in the eastern Mediterranean

and elsewhere in the region,

is designed to help Israel, if necessary,

but also designed to try to deter,

either Iran or its proxies

from using this moment

to try to escalate this situation.

We'll see how that unfolds.

It didn't deter the Iranians

from launching

all those ballistic missiles towards

Israel over the past few hours.

Kayla. Toshi, thank you very, very much.

We're also hearing now

that the Israeli military

has just announced

that citizens in the Tel Aviv area

can leave their shelters.

Nic Robertson

is joining us from Haifa

in northern Israel right now.

So, Nic,

give us a sense of what's happening

in Haifa where you are.

Well, Wolf, still hearing fast

fighter jets overhead, clearly engaged,

in operations in Lebanon

just to the north of us here.

But I just want to draw us,

perhaps closer to the events of tonight.

One of the air bases in southern Israel

that was targeted by Iran tonight,

one of their stated targets.

I was at that air base over the weekend.

I was at that airbase

because I was invited,

to go on a combat mission

that was targeting the Houthis in Yemen.

I was on a refuel aircraft

refueling F-35s

that that carried out

that targeted mission on the Houthis.

And who data.

The reason for that targeting

was that

one of the reasons

was to send a message to Iran

not to get involved

in the fight right now.

So I find it significant

that the Iranians have targeted

that base.

They have tried to target it

before, and I won't give away

operational details

of the nature of that base

and everything that's at that base.

But I can tell you

it is an important

and a very significant base

for the Israeli Air Force.

And I think when we consider as well

what triggered

Iran to launch this attack, now,

we don't know.

But it is less than 24 hours ago

that Israel changed its tactics

against Hezbollah and decided

to go on a ground offensive into Lebanon.

One of the reasons I say

this is because the impression

that Iran has created by not backing up

Hezbollah more forcefully

until now,

while their leadership

has been decimated,

their

their command and control

has been decimated,

their military arsenal

has been decimated,

is that

Iran has appeared

to stand on the sidelines.

And as Hezbollah was Iran's major

ally, to attack Israel,

if Israel tried to attack Iran,

the fact that they were

being so decimated was beginning

to open

the same realization in Iran

as was being realized here,

that this may have been becoming

an opportune moment

to hit targets inside of Iran.

And I think when you

when when Israeli officials

try to figure out

what their next move is,

they are going to know

as they turn to strike back Iran

as they absolutely will,

their threat from Hezbollah

is diminished.

It's not where it was two weeks ago.

Hezbollah is credibly

and critically weakened,

and that may give Israel stronger

and better possibility as it as it forces

and enforces its deterrence

in this region by responding to Iran.