The 3rd Candle in FVGs is Crucial
Summary
TLDRこのスクリプトは、公平価値ギャップ(Fair Value Gap)の3つのキャンドルパターンを分析し、どのキャンドルが最も重要であるかを説明しています。1番目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位を作り、公平価値そのものを形成します。3番目のキャンドルは最も複雑で、3つの異なる選択肢があります。深い反転、拡大、またはコンソリデーションです。これらの選択肢は、公平価値ギャップが持続する可能性、または価格がギャップに戻る可能性を示します。スクリプトでは、これらのパターンを例え話やアナロジーを用いて詳細に説明し、どのパターンが取引するのに最適かを理解するための理解を深めています。
Takeaways
- 🌟 公平価値ギャップ(Fair Value Gap)は3つのキャンドルパターンで構成され、最も重要なのは3つ目のキャンドルです。
- 📈 1つ目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2つ目のキャンドルは拡大相位(expansion phase)として、1つ目のキャンドルの高値を超えるべきです。
- 📉 3つ目のキャンドルは3つの異なる選択肢があり、それぞれの選択肢から異なる情報を得られます。
- 🔄 選択肢1は深いリトレース(deep retracement)で、これは公平価値ギャップが持続する可能性を示します。
- 🌐 選択肢2は拡大(expansion)で、これはギャップが持続し、さらに高値に向かって進むことを意味します。
- 🔄 選択肢3はコンソリデーション(consolidation)で、これはギャップが持続する可能性が最も高いことを示しています。
- 💡 キャンドルサイエンス(Candle Science)を理解することが重要であり、キャンドルの尊重(respect)と無視(disrespect)を理解する必要があります。
- 🚀 突破ギャップ(breakaway gap)は、通常は2つ目のキャンドルの高値を超えることで形成されます。
- 🔍 ただし、キャンドルサイエンスの知識を深めることで、より複雑な突破ギャップを特定できます。
- 📊 トレーディングにおいては、損失を最小限に抑えたいし、利益を最大化したいと考えます。そのためには、公平価値ギャップの理解が不可欠です。
- 🕒 時間の経過とともに、キャンドルパターンがどのように発展するかを観察し、トレーディングのタイミングを選びます。
Q & A
フェアバリューギャップの3つのキャンドルは何を表している?
-フェアバリューギャップは3つのキャンドルパターンで構成されており、1番目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位となっており、3番目のキャンドルは最も重要なキャンドルであり、フェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうか、またはギャップに戻る深さを示すものです。
3番目のキャンドルが深いリトレースを示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?
-3番目のキャンドルが深いリトレースを示す場合、それは熊市場と牛市場の対決のような状況を意味し、リトレースが深いほど、そのフェアバリューギャップが維持される可能性が低くなります。これは、市場の勢いが一方に倒れている場合、フェアバリューギャップがすぐに止められることがないからです。
3番目のキャンドルが拡大相位を示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?
-3番目のキャンドルが拡大相位を示す場合、それは市場がさらに上昇または下降し、フェアバリューギャップを維持する強い勢いがあることを意味します。この場合、市場はギャップを乗り越えてさらに動き、新しいトレンドを確立する可能性が高いです。
3番目のキャンドルが収束相位を示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?
-3番目のキャンドルが収束相位を示す場合、それは市場が一定の範囲内でコンソリデーションし、今後の方向性が不明確であることを意味します。この場合、投資家はより多くの証拠を待って、より確実な取引の機会を探る必要があります。
フェアバリューギャップのどのキャンドルが最も重要?
-フェアバリューギャップの3番目のキャンドルが最も重要であり、このキャンドルはフェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうか、またはギャップに戻る深さを判断する鍵となる要素です。
フェアバリューギャップが形成される時、なぜ2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位と呼ばれる?
-2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位と呼ばれるのは、このキャンドルがフェアバリューギャップの「ボディ」を形成し、基本的な価値のギャップを示すからです。このキャンドルは、1番目のキャンドルの高値を上回ることができなければなりません。
フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、なぜ3番目のキャンドルの予測が難しいの?
-3番目のキャンドルの予測が難しいのは、このキャンドルには3つの異なる可能性があり、しかもそのうちの2つはトレードするのに最適ではないからです。市場の動向が不確実であるため、3番目のキャンドルがどのような動きをするかを正確に予測することは難しいです。
フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて、どのようにして市場の勢いを判断する?
-市場の勢いを判断するためには、キャンドルスティックのパターンや長期的なトレンド、そして市場のリズムを観察する必要があります。特に、キャンドルスティックの長さや影線の位置など、キャンドルサイエンスを理解することで、市場の勢いに関する多くの情報を得ることができます。
リトレースが起こった場合、どのようにしてフェアバリューギャップが維持されるか判断する?
-リトレースが起こった場合、フェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうかは、3番目のキャンドルの動きによって判断されます。もし3番目のキャンドルが前回の高値を上回る場合は、ギャップが維持される可能性が高いと見なすことができます。一方で、3番目のキャンドルが短い影線で收盘した場合は、ギャップが維持されない可能性が高いと判断されます。
フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、リスクを管理する方法は何?
-フェアバリューギャップのトレードでリスクを管理するためには、損切りを設定することが重要です。また、市場の勢いに応じて適切なリスクと報酬比率を維持し、損失を最小限に抑えるように取引を行うことが効果的です。さらに、より確実なトレードの機会を待つこともリスク管理に役立ちます。
フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて、どのようなサインが最も重要?
-フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて最も重要なサインは、キャンドルスティックのパターンと影線の位置です。特に、リバースエンジニアリングキャンドルやドリフトキャンドルなど、特定のキャンドルパターンが見られる場合は、それらが市場の勢いを示す可能性が高いと判断することができます。
フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、どのようなエントリーポイントが最適?
-フェアバリューギャップのトレードで最適なエントリーポイントは、3番目のキャンドルの拡大相位が確認された後です。この時点で、市場はギャップを維持し続ける可能性が高いため、新たな取引の開始が適しています。また、リスク管理を考慮して、損切りを設定することも重要です。
Outlines
🕯️ 重要な第三の蝋燭 - 公平価値ギャップの持続可能性
この段落では、公平価値ギャップの第三の蝋燭が最も重要であることが説明されています。第三の蝋燭は、公平価値ギャップが持続するかどうか、またはギャップに深く逆行するかどうかを示すものです。公平価値ギャップは三つの蝋燭のパターンであり、第一の蝋燭は最も関連性が低く、第二の蝋燭は拡大相位であり、公平価値そのものを作り出します。第三の蝋燭は複雑で、三つの異なる選択肢から異なることを示すことができます。第一の選択肢は深い逆行であり、例えとしてドルの月次時間フレームで見た第一の目標に達し、Weekly次時間フレームに移ると、それは完全にフラクタル的であり、どの時間フレーム、どの市場でも機能します。第三の蝋燭が非常に攻撃的な上昇をすると、それは多くの抵抗があることを意味します。このような状況では、熊の人物と牛の人物が価格を下げたり引き上げるための力均衡を図っています。
📈 損失を最小限に - 取引の基礎とリスク管理
この段落では、損失を最小限に抑えることが利益を上げるための重要な要素であることが述べられています。目標は、1から2のリスク対報酬比を目指し、損失を少なく保つことです。理想的な状態では、次の勝者を捕捉する前にゼロの損失を達成したいと考えます。待つことが大切であり、追加の公平価値ギャップ(4時間足りない)を待って、新しいエントリーを見つけることをお勧めします。この方法で、損失を回避し、利益を最大化することができました。
🔍 蝋燭サイエンスと公平価値ギャップ - より深い理解
この段落では、蝋燭サイエンスと公平価値ギャップの理解が重要であることが説明されています。尊重される蝋燭と無視される蝋燭の概念が紹介されています。尊重される蝋燭は、蝋燭の底に長い蛍光を持ち、無視される蝋燭は、市場のどちらの側面にも長い蛍光がない揺れの強い完全な本文を持つことを意味します。これらの蝋燭は、時間軸の下侧で何が起こっているかを示しています。蝋燭サイエンスの理解は、公平価値ギャップを正確に判断し、取引のタイミングを調整する際に役立ちます。
🤔 第三の蝋燭の難しさ - 取引のタイミングと戦略
最後の段落では、第三の蝋燭が取引において難しいことを強調しています。第三の蝋燭を取引する際、それは第三の蝋燭が拡大相位の蝋燭であり、最終的にブレイクアウェイギャップになることを期待していることです。しかし、その瞬間に第三の蝋燭がどのような行動をとるのかは不確実であり、そのためにトレーダーは慎重に行動しなければなりません。流動性のスイープとランの理解を深めることで、第三の蝋燭を適切に取引することができます。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡fair value Gap
💡candle pattern
💡retracement
💡breakaway Gap
💡pushing battle
💡time frame
💡liquidity
💡candle science
💡risk to reward ratio
💡confirmation
💡immediate rebalance
Highlights
The third candle in a fair value gap is the most important indicator of whether the gap will hold or lead to a retracement.
The fair value gap is a three-candle pattern where the first candle is the least relevant.
The second candle represents an expansion phase, creating the body which is the actual fair value.
The third candle can lead to three different outcomes: a deep retracement, no retracement, or a consolidation.
A deep retracement in the third candle suggests a lower probability for the fair value gap to hold.
An aggressive move higher in the third candle indicates strong bullish momentum against a bearish fair value gap.
The analogy of a pushing battle between bullish and bearish forces helps to understand the dynamics of fair value gaps.
A breakaway gap occurs when the price closes above the second candle's high, indicating a high probability of continuation.
Sneaky breakaway gaps require an understanding of candle science and the use of candle signs to identify.
Respect candles and disrespect candles play a crucial role in identifying the nature of fair value gaps and potential price movements.
Immediate rebalance and redeliver rebalance are concepts related to fair value gaps on lower time frames.
The third candle's consolidation indicates a balance of forces and potential for continuation in the direction of the momentum.
When trading the third candle of a fair value gap, it's essential to watch for signs that the price may not continue in the expected direction.
Sweep versus run on liquidity is a concept to be aware of when trading the third candle to avoid incorrect assumptions about price movement.
The tricky nature of the third candle means that trading it can be a bet on an expansion phase or breakaway gap, which is a lower probability scenario.
Understanding the different types of fair value gaps and their implications is crucial for effective trading strategies.
Fractal nature of fair value gaps allows these patterns to be applicable across various time frames and markets.
The importance of waiting for the right confirmation and managing risk-to-reward ratios for profitable trading.
The practical application of fair value gaps in trading requires a deep understanding of price action and market dynamics.
Transcripts
the third candle in any fair value Gap
is the most important one because it
will tell you if that fair value Gap
will actually hold if we will retrace
back deep into that fair Val Gap or if
we will not even retrace back into that
fair Val Gap at all let's first
understand that the fair value Gap is a
three candle pattern so we have the
first candle which is the least relevant
one it doesn't really matter what the
first candle is doing the second candle
is always going to be an expansion phase
because if we have a bullish for Gap
it's going to need to expand above the
first candle High creating the body
which will be the actual fair value
itself now the third candle is where it
gets tricky because the third candle has
three different options which all tell
you different things the first option is
a deep retracement so if we take a look
at the dollar here we are on the monthly
time frame the first Target we
established in previous videos as well
as the previous month's low right there
once we reach that Target and we go down
onto the weekly time frame and by the
way this again is completely fractal
works on every single time frame every
single market then we see once we reach
that Target right there we are in the
midst of creating a fair value Gap right
there but what can we also see that we
have the first candle perfect second
candle expansion phase perfect third
candle is an extremely aggressive move
higher it's a deep retracement there's a
lot of resistance once we reach this
target there's a lot of resistance going
higher right there so the way I want you
to see this I want you to imagine right
now on your screen a pushing battle we
have a bearish person and a bullish
person right there and they're both
trying to push price lower and higher
now when they both push very strong that
might lead to price not going anywhere
right because if they both push hard
enough price is just going to stay in
the same place but if one pushes harder
than the other one so the bearish person
pushes a little bit harder than the
other one that in the first place is
going to create potentially a fair value
Gap because there's bearish intention
which creates the second candle the
expansion phase candle of that fair
value Gap there's the bearish person
pushing price lower but then the bullish
person whilst coming into a discount
rate like the previous month's low is
pushing price higher very strongly as
well and how do we know that price right
there is getting pushed higher very
strongly well if we first look at the
complete expansion phase that we had we
could have created a complete fair value
Gap like this if the third candle would
have just already been completely out of
the open a bearish candle which it does
not do on the next candle it instead
pushes higher there's a lot of
resistance going against us there's a
bullish person right there pushing that
price higher aggressively now when we
push price higher aggressively on a
third candle what does that mean that
means that we in the first place might
actually create a smaller fair value Gap
than expected right there but more
importantly there is a lot of boot
bullish momentum going against a bearish
fair value Gap so the analogy I always
like to use is it's like a train right
there going into that bearish and
there's a mouse a small little mouse
trying to stop that train that's not
going to work it's again that pushing
battle they're pushing back and forth so
if a third candle has an aggressive move
against the original fvi Gap in this
case an aggressive move higher bullish
momentum my first thought process is
that fa Val Gap is not very likely to
hold it's not the highest probability
for Val Gap and the highest probability
for Val Gap is the third option that we
are eventually going to go over if we do
want to hold right there then we will
most likely see a deeper retracement
into the F Gap potentially coming into
something overlapping so an order block
a breaker block to then continue lower
why well very simply s because again
it's a pushing battle if we have a lot
of momentum going against a certain we
can't expect that F Gap to just all of a
sudden magically stop that bullish
momentum right there it's not going to
work we can't expect that small little
mouse to stop that train coming at it
now why is that then important to
understand because once we sting into
that Weekly fair value Gap right there
if we were to go into any confirmation
time frame then people might see already
sells right there to continue lower but
that's not a good sell opportunity
because we have a lot of moment momentum
going against it so what do we want to
wait for we want to wait for more
confirmation instead if we do want to
continue lower and that leads back to
the basics of understanding trading if
we want to be profitable we don't want
to take a lot of losses before we take
the next winner because if you target a
one to two RR and you take two losses
right here before you might actually
catch the huge winner and we continue
lower and that means that you are Break
Even Now imagine if you catch three
losses before you catch the huge move
lower for example right there then you
are catching a winner yes but you are
unprofitable so if you're targeting one
to two risk to reward ratio then ideally
only one loss before we take the winner
and in an Ideal World of course zero
losses before we take the next winner
and if we want to take zero losses then
there is no shame in just simply waiting
for an extra fair value lower and what I
mean by that is instead of your usual
entry confirmation wait for a little bit
more than usual so instead wait for a
4our for gap for example and off of that
4our for Gap we can out look for new
entries to continue lower so the first
option we just discussed the Deep
retracement option is the lowest
probability fair value Gap we can
actually look to trade off of now the
second option is already a little bit
higher probability to actually look to
trade off of which is the expansion
option the expansion option is also
known as a breakaway Gap where again in
previous videos I mentioned if we close
above the second candle high right there
that in itself is as a general rule
thumb a breakaway Gap that is true but
there is a lot more advanced details
that we can go over to see if it is
actually a breakaway Gap so the second
option the expansion option is where we
have the first candle again can do
anything it wants second candle right
there is again expansion phase candle
creating the actual fair value Gap third
candle is also an expansion so it's
already continuing higher when we have
this we can confidently say that this
fair value Gap is a breakaway Gap and we
will not trade back into that before we
actually Reach This draw liquidity right
there so what would you want to do you
would want to look at the lower time
frame so going into a time frame below
it to then look and find new fair value
gaps which have the third option which
we're going to go over next now this
Breakaway Gap is quite obvious looking
at a Canadian dollar right here I can
confident say we are most likely going
to deliver right there into the draw
liquidity from that high before we
actually retrace back into that fair
value Gap and if we do retrace back into
that fair value Gap into that Breakaway
Gap then most likely we are going to see
lower prices because it should not
retrace that far similar to Australian
dollar CHF right here we have that swing
high as the current Target for the
remainder of this week as well we are
leaving Behind These Fair Val gaps again
we are most likely not going to trade
trade back into that F value Gap because
it is a break Gap the third candle is an
expansion phase higher right there so
what we want to do is ideally find a
lower time frame F gap which we can
already look to continue higher off of
instead but this is quite obvious what I
just told you is not rocket science but
what we do need to go over is kendle
signs we have those very obvious
Breakaway gaps but we also have the
sneaky Breakaway gaps and the sneaky
Breakaway gaps to monster those is where
you also need to master candle signs so
if we take a look at this example on
crude oil we had this as Target after
sweeping this discount rate that swing
low right there it was the only discount
rate that we can still continue higher
from so that right there is what we
mentioned in the forecast on YouTube as
well we can continue higher off of that
then on the 4our if we wait for a 4our
for higher then what do we see well we
have this 4our V Gap right there as soon
as this up candle right there closes and
that creates this breakway Gap again the
third candle just being expansion higher
but then afterwards we create a new fair
value Gap and this fair value Gap right
there is showing or if you know the
general rule thumb if we do not close
above the second candle high right there
we might want to trade back into that F
Val Gap to then continue higher off that
but that is if we do not understand
candle science candle science is the
following in Candle science we have a
disrespect candle and a respect candle
very simply said for bullish examples
just inverse for bearish examples for
bullish examples if we have a respect
candle we have a long Wick at the bottom
of that candle indicating that we are
respecting something because what is
that wick on the lower time frame on the
lower time frame that long Wick at the
bottom is actually fair value gaps
already pointing higher where a
disrespect candle is for example this
earlier third candle we saw right there
no long Wicks on either side of the
market just
a steady full body up candle right there
that indicates that on the lower time
frame we also have Fair Val gaps already
pointing higher so whenever we have a
long Wick right there at the bottom what
is that actually that is actually a fair
value gap on the time frames below
already getting respected so if we drop
into the 1 hour right there we see a
fair value gap on the 1 hour right here
already getting respected meaning it's
already been traded into to to then
create a new 1hour for Gap right there
so at the moment whilst we have a 1hour
for Gap sitting right here and on the 4
Hour we have this 4our for Gap sitting
right there is it realistic at this
moment in time whilst we have this draw
liquidity sitting right there which we
most likely want to deliver towards fast
because price action delivering towards
a drawn liquidity always happens fast
high probability conditions happen
extremely fast fast so we might not want
to retrace very far where here again the
pushing battle right we have that
bullish person is extremely bullish it's
pushing very hard but the bearish person
is not having a lot of resistance is not
pushing back a lot so it will not
retrace a lot so if the third candle is
one of the respect candles that we see
in Candle sence then that creates a
breakaway Gap similarly we see before we
reached that low actually right there we
see another Breakaway Gap sitting right
there as well where the third candle is
a long Wick at the top and it's a down
candle and close below the second candle
low right there perfect we can already
continue lower without retracing back
into that fair value Gap because it's a
breakaway Gap now a little Golden Nugget
in between if you truly want to
understand candle science and fair value
gaps do you know ict's term immediate
rebalance or even a redeliver rebalance
all that is is a fair value gap on the
lower time frame for example Le right
here when we do not create a new V right
there but we do have a long Wick at the
top right there that still indicates
that we can continue lower towards that
low right there because we're already
respecting a fair value G on a lower
time frame that's why we create that
immediate rebalance right there so we
understand that this fair value gap
which is now a breakaway Gap we most
likely do not want to trade back into
that before we actually look to continue
higher this is where we will go into a
time frame below it to find a new fair
value Gap to continue higher off of that
and that fair value Gap is actually the
third option fair value Gap the third
option fair value Gap is the highest
probability fair value Gap we have gone
over two options thus far the deep
retracement and the expansion they are
both the opposite so they have a pull
and a push those are two extremes either
huge retracement or no retracement and
we just continue higher in the middle
right there we have balance we have a
consolidation third candle where there
is a lot of one-sided momentum right
here on crude oil to still continue
higher towards that Target right there
but we consolidate with the third candle
sitting right there and the third candle
here is not a huge retracement is not an
expansion higher already relatively seen
to where the full expansion phase could
have been created right there it is
leaving behind for that full expansion
phase almost 50% of the expansion phase
so that creat right there a third candle
consolidation Perfect Since we are still
so bullish that consolidation is setting
up perfectly to actually trade back into
that Gap to only have a sting into it to
then immediately explode higher after
that as well that is exactly what we see
right there and afterwards if we do
follow the 1our for gaps what do we see
again right here we see the exact same
consolidating third candle right there
there before we have a sting into it
right there and then we continue higher
off that towards the draw on liquidity
right there remember the US dollar right
here where this fair value Gap is the
first option it's a deep retracement
most likely or it will just simply not
hold since we are expecting that if we
go into the 4our ri there what do we
actually see we try to reject off that
Weekly vup initially we fail to do so
create a new 4our high right there third
candle what is it consolid ation only a
sting into it to then continue higher
off of that immediately so if we think
this through then there's another
important aspect which is arguably a
huge underrated aspect is we have
something called the tricky third candle
and the tricky third candle is if you
are for example right here on the daily
time frame and you are trying to trade
this fair value Gap lower off of that
right there and that fair value lower
can indeed deliver lower no worries it
can do that but we need to keep in mind
at that moment in time we are also
creating the third candle and we are
trading the third candle of a fair value
Gap being created where if we are
trading the third candle we don't
necessarily have a good idea of what it
is going to do where if we're trading a
second candle we understand that's most
likely going to be an expansion phase
candle but the third candle has three
different options it has the Deep
retracement the expansion and the cons
consolidation where two of those three
options are not good to trade the deep
retracement I would argue at that moment
in time is not really good to trade we'd
rather have it continue lower
consolidation is also not the best to
trade right there so if you are looking
to trade a third candle of any fair
value Gap that is about to be created
you are essentially betting on that
third candle to be an expansion phase
candle and to be a breakway gap
eventually so that becomes a little bit
lower probability can you still trade
that yes for sure but you need to watch
out for the first signs that might be
there that we do not want to continue
lower which is where you need to pay
attention to a sweep versus a run on
liquidity for example that previous
candle low right there we sweep that
liquidity and we do not run that
liquidity that indicates that we do not
actually want to continue lower
immediately so watch out same for the
daily right there if we create a daily
for lower watch out when you are Trad
the third candle you can trade it as
long as you understand a sweep versus
run on liquidity which by coincidence
will also be the next video that we are
going to go over in preparation for that
you can also watch previous videos that
I made on similar topics like that for
example I have made the sweep versus run
on liquidity video before but in the
next one we will go into more detail all
right perfect thank you
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