The 3rd Candle in FVGs is Crucial

Arjo
24 Mar 202416:24

Summary

TLDRこのスクリプトは、公平価値ギャップ(Fair Value Gap)の3つのキャンドルパターンを分析し、どのキャンドルが最も重要であるかを説明しています。1番目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位を作り、公平価値そのものを形成します。3番目のキャンドルは最も複雑で、3つの異なる選択肢があります。深い反転、拡大、またはコンソリデーションです。これらの選択肢は、公平価値ギャップが持続する可能性、または価格がギャップに戻る可能性を示します。スクリプトでは、これらのパターンを例え話やアナロジーを用いて詳細に説明し、どのパターンが取引するのに最適かを理解するための理解を深めています。

Takeaways

  • 🌟 公平価値ギャップ(Fair Value Gap)は3つのキャンドルパターンで構成され、最も重要なのは3つ目のキャンドルです。
  • 📈 1つ目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2つ目のキャンドルは拡大相位(expansion phase)として、1つ目のキャンドルの高値を超えるべきです。
  • 📉 3つ目のキャンドルは3つの異なる選択肢があり、それぞれの選択肢から異なる情報を得られます。
  • 🔄 選択肢1は深いリトレース(deep retracement)で、これは公平価値ギャップが持続する可能性を示します。
  • 🌐 選択肢2は拡大(expansion)で、これはギャップが持続し、さらに高値に向かって進むことを意味します。
  • 🔄 選択肢3はコンソリデーション(consolidation)で、これはギャップが持続する可能性が最も高いことを示しています。
  • 💡 キャンドルサイエンス(Candle Science)を理解することが重要であり、キャンドルの尊重(respect)と無視(disrespect)を理解する必要があります。
  • 🚀 突破ギャップ(breakaway gap)は、通常は2つ目のキャンドルの高値を超えることで形成されます。
  • 🔍 ただし、キャンドルサイエンスの知識を深めることで、より複雑な突破ギャップを特定できます。
  • 📊 トレーディングにおいては、損失を最小限に抑えたいし、利益を最大化したいと考えます。そのためには、公平価値ギャップの理解が不可欠です。
  • 🕒 時間の経過とともに、キャンドルパターンがどのように発展するかを観察し、トレーディングのタイミングを選びます。

Q & A

  • フェアバリューギャップの3つのキャンドルは何を表している?

    -フェアバリューギャップは3つのキャンドルパターンで構成されており、1番目のキャンドルは最も関連性が低く、2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位となっており、3番目のキャンドルは最も重要なキャンドルであり、フェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうか、またはギャップに戻る深さを示すものです。

  • 3番目のキャンドルが深いリトレースを示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?

    -3番目のキャンドルが深いリトレースを示す場合、それは熊市場と牛市場の対決のような状況を意味し、リトレースが深いほど、そのフェアバリューギャップが維持される可能性が低くなります。これは、市場の勢いが一方に倒れている場合、フェアバリューギャップがすぐに止められることがないからです。

  • 3番目のキャンドルが拡大相位を示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?

    -3番目のキャンドルが拡大相位を示す場合、それは市場がさらに上昇または下降し、フェアバリューギャップを維持する強い勢いがあることを意味します。この場合、市場はギャップを乗り越えてさらに動き、新しいトレンドを確立する可能性が高いです。

  • 3番目のキャンドルが収束相位を示す場合、それはどのような状況を意味する?

    -3番目のキャンドルが収束相位を示す場合、それは市場が一定の範囲内でコンソリデーションし、今後の方向性が不明確であることを意味します。この場合、投資家はより多くの証拠を待って、より確実な取引の機会を探る必要があります。

  • フェアバリューギャップのどのキャンドルが最も重要?

    -フェアバリューギャップの3番目のキャンドルが最も重要であり、このキャンドルはフェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうか、またはギャップに戻る深さを判断する鍵となる要素です。

  • フェアバリューギャップが形成される時、なぜ2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位と呼ばれる?

    -2番目のキャンドルは拡大相位と呼ばれるのは、このキャンドルがフェアバリューギャップの「ボディ」を形成し、基本的な価値のギャップを示すからです。このキャンドルは、1番目のキャンドルの高値を上回ることができなければなりません。

  • フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、なぜ3番目のキャンドルの予測が難しいの?

    -3番目のキャンドルの予測が難しいのは、このキャンドルには3つの異なる可能性があり、しかもそのうちの2つはトレードするのに最適ではないからです。市場の動向が不確実であるため、3番目のキャンドルがどのような動きをするかを正確に予測することは難しいです。

  • フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて、どのようにして市場の勢いを判断する?

    -市場の勢いを判断するためには、キャンドルスティックのパターンや長期的なトレンド、そして市場のリズムを観察する必要があります。特に、キャンドルスティックの長さや影線の位置など、キャンドルサイエンスを理解することで、市場の勢いに関する多くの情報を得ることができます。

  • リトレースが起こった場合、どのようにしてフェアバリューギャップが維持されるか判断する?

    -リトレースが起こった場合、フェアバリューギャップが維持されるかどうかは、3番目のキャンドルの動きによって判断されます。もし3番目のキャンドルが前回の高値を上回る場合は、ギャップが維持される可能性が高いと見なすことができます。一方で、3番目のキャンドルが短い影線で收盘した場合は、ギャップが維持されない可能性が高いと判断されます。

  • フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、リスクを管理する方法は何?

    -フェアバリューギャップのトレードでリスクを管理するためには、損切りを設定することが重要です。また、市場の勢いに応じて適切なリスクと報酬比率を維持し、損失を最小限に抑えるように取引を行うことが効果的です。さらに、より確実なトレードの機会を待つこともリスク管理に役立ちます。

  • フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて、どのようなサインが最も重要?

    -フェアバリューギャップのトレードにおいて最も重要なサインは、キャンドルスティックのパターンと影線の位置です。特に、リバースエンジニアリングキャンドルやドリフトキャンドルなど、特定のキャンドルパターンが見られる場合は、それらが市場の勢いを示す可能性が高いと判断することができます。

  • フェアバリューギャップのトレードで、どのようなエントリーポイントが最適?

    -フェアバリューギャップのトレードで最適なエントリーポイントは、3番目のキャンドルの拡大相位が確認された後です。この時点で、市場はギャップを維持し続ける可能性が高いため、新たな取引の開始が適しています。また、リスク管理を考慮して、損切りを設定することも重要です。

Outlines

00:00

🕯️ 重要な第三の蝋燭 - 公平価値ギャップの持続可能性

この段落では、公平価値ギャップの第三の蝋燭が最も重要であることが説明されています。第三の蝋燭は、公平価値ギャップが持続するかどうか、またはギャップに深く逆行するかどうかを示すものです。公平価値ギャップは三つの蝋燭のパターンであり、第一の蝋燭は最も関連性が低く、第二の蝋燭は拡大相位であり、公平価値そのものを作り出します。第三の蝋燭は複雑で、三つの異なる選択肢から異なることを示すことができます。第一の選択肢は深い逆行であり、例えとしてドルの月次時間フレームで見た第一の目標に達し、Weekly次時間フレームに移ると、それは完全にフラクタル的であり、どの時間フレーム、どの市場でも機能します。第三の蝋燭が非常に攻撃的な上昇をすると、それは多くの抵抗があることを意味します。このような状況では、熊の人物と牛の人物が価格を下げたり引き上げるための力均衡を図っています。

05:02

📈 損失を最小限に - 取引の基礎とリスク管理

この段落では、損失を最小限に抑えることが利益を上げるための重要な要素であることが述べられています。目標は、1から2のリスク対報酬比を目指し、損失を少なく保つことです。理想的な状態では、次の勝者を捕捉する前にゼロの損失を達成したいと考えます。待つことが大切であり、追加の公平価値ギャップ(4時間足りない)を待って、新しいエントリーを見つけることをお勧めします。この方法で、損失を回避し、利益を最大化することができました。

10:03

🔍 蝋燭サイエンスと公平価値ギャップ - より深い理解

この段落では、蝋燭サイエンスと公平価値ギャップの理解が重要であることが説明されています。尊重される蝋燭と無視される蝋燭の概念が紹介されています。尊重される蝋燭は、蝋燭の底に長い蛍光を持ち、無視される蝋燭は、市場のどちらの側面にも長い蛍光がない揺れの強い完全な本文を持つことを意味します。これらの蝋燭は、時間軸の下侧で何が起こっているかを示しています。蝋燭サイエンスの理解は、公平価値ギャップを正確に判断し、取引のタイミングを調整する際に役立ちます。

15:04

🤔 第三の蝋燭の難しさ - 取引のタイミングと戦略

最後の段落では、第三の蝋燭が取引において難しいことを強調しています。第三の蝋燭を取引する際、それは第三の蝋燭が拡大相位の蝋燭であり、最終的にブレイクアウェイギャップになることを期待していることです。しかし、その瞬間に第三の蝋燭がどのような行動をとるのかは不確実であり、そのためにトレーダーは慎重に行動しなければなりません。流動性のスイープとランの理解を深めることで、第三の蝋燭を適切に取引することができます。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡fair value Gap

fair value Gapは、価格チャート上の特定のパターンで、市場がどの程度の価値を持っているかを示す指標です。このビデオでは、fair value Gapが形成される3つのキャンドルのパターンについて説明されています。fair value Gapが保たれるかどうか、または市場がGapに戻るかどうかを判断するために、3番目のキャンドルが最も重要であるとされています。

💡candle pattern

candle patternは、株式や通貨の価格チャート上でのキャンドルスティックの形状や配置から得られるパターンで、市場の動きや予測に役立つものです。このビデオでは、fair value Gapの3つのキャンドルパターンが分析されており、それぞれのキャンドルの意味や役割が説明されています。

💡retracement

retracementは、価格が一時的に上昇または下降してから、再び元のトレンドに戻る現象を指します。このビデオでは、市場がfair value Gapに戻るかどうかを判断する際に、deep retracement(深いリトレースメント)やexpansion(拡大)などの概念が重要です。

💡breakaway Gap

breakaway Gapは、市場が一方的方向に強い動きを遂げ、新しいトレンドを始めたと示すキャンドルスティックのパターンです。このビデオでは、breakaway Gapが形成される状況と、それがfair value Gapの予測にどのように影響を与えるかが説明されています。

💡pushing battle

pushing battleは、市場の上昇と下降を表す比喩で、bullish(楽観的な)とbearish(悲観的な)投資家の力比べを示しています。このビデオでは、pushing battleがfair value Gapの形成と解消にどのように関与するかが説明されています。

💡time frame

time frameは、市場データをどの期間にわたって分析するかを指す术语です。このビデオでは、異なる時間軸(monthly、weeklyなど)でのfair value Gapの形成と解消が重要視されています。

💡liquidity

liquidityは、市場において資産を迅速に売買できる能力を指します。このビデオでは、市場のliquidityがfair value Gapの形成や解消にどのように影響するかが説明されています。

💡candle science

candle scienceは、キャンドルスティックの形状やパターンを分析し、市場の動きを予測する技術です。このビデオでは、candle scienceを用いてfair value Gapの3番目のキャンドルの動作を解釈しています。

💡risk to reward ratio

risk to reward ratioは、取引におけるリスクと報酬の比率を指します。このビデオでは、fair value Gapの取引において、どのようなrisk to reward ratioを目指すべきかが重要視されています。

💡confirmation

confirmationは、取引の際に市場の動きを確認するためのプロセスです。このビデオでは、fair value Gapの取引において、どのタイミングでconfirmationが行われるかが重要です。

💡immediate rebalance

immediate rebalanceは、市場が短期間に価格を再調整することを指します。このビデオでは、immediate rebalanceがfair value Gapの形成や解消にどのように関与するかが説明されています。

Highlights

The third candle in a fair value gap is the most important indicator of whether the gap will hold or lead to a retracement.

The fair value gap is a three-candle pattern where the first candle is the least relevant.

The second candle represents an expansion phase, creating the body which is the actual fair value.

The third candle can lead to three different outcomes: a deep retracement, no retracement, or a consolidation.

A deep retracement in the third candle suggests a lower probability for the fair value gap to hold.

An aggressive move higher in the third candle indicates strong bullish momentum against a bearish fair value gap.

The analogy of a pushing battle between bullish and bearish forces helps to understand the dynamics of fair value gaps.

A breakaway gap occurs when the price closes above the second candle's high, indicating a high probability of continuation.

Sneaky breakaway gaps require an understanding of candle science and the use of candle signs to identify.

Respect candles and disrespect candles play a crucial role in identifying the nature of fair value gaps and potential price movements.

Immediate rebalance and redeliver rebalance are concepts related to fair value gaps on lower time frames.

The third candle's consolidation indicates a balance of forces and potential for continuation in the direction of the momentum.

When trading the third candle of a fair value gap, it's essential to watch for signs that the price may not continue in the expected direction.

Sweep versus run on liquidity is a concept to be aware of when trading the third candle to avoid incorrect assumptions about price movement.

The tricky nature of the third candle means that trading it can be a bet on an expansion phase or breakaway gap, which is a lower probability scenario.

Understanding the different types of fair value gaps and their implications is crucial for effective trading strategies.

Fractal nature of fair value gaps allows these patterns to be applicable across various time frames and markets.

The importance of waiting for the right confirmation and managing risk-to-reward ratios for profitable trading.

The practical application of fair value gaps in trading requires a deep understanding of price action and market dynamics.

Transcripts

play00:00

the third candle in any fair value Gap

play00:02

is the most important one because it

play00:04

will tell you if that fair value Gap

play00:06

will actually hold if we will retrace

play00:08

back deep into that fair Val Gap or if

play00:11

we will not even retrace back into that

play00:12

fair Val Gap at all let's first

play00:15

understand that the fair value Gap is a

play00:16

three candle pattern so we have the

play00:19

first candle which is the least relevant

play00:21

one it doesn't really matter what the

play00:23

first candle is doing the second candle

play00:25

is always going to be an expansion phase

play00:27

because if we have a bullish for Gap

play00:29

it's going to need to expand above the

play00:31

first candle High creating the body

play00:34

which will be the actual fair value

play00:36

itself now the third candle is where it

play00:38

gets tricky because the third candle has

play00:40

three different options which all tell

play00:42

you different things the first option is

play00:45

a deep retracement so if we take a look

play00:47

at the dollar here we are on the monthly

play00:48

time frame the first Target we

play00:50

established in previous videos as well

play00:52

as the previous month's low right there

play00:54

once we reach that Target and we go down

play00:56

onto the weekly time frame and by the

play00:58

way this again is completely fractal

play01:00

works on every single time frame every

play01:03

single market then we see once we reach

play01:05

that Target right there we are in the

play01:07

midst of creating a fair value Gap right

play01:10

there but what can we also see that we

play01:13

have the first candle perfect second

play01:15

candle expansion phase perfect third

play01:17

candle is an extremely aggressive move

play01:20

higher it's a deep retracement there's a

play01:22

lot of resistance once we reach this

play01:25

target there's a lot of resistance going

play01:28

higher right there so the way I want you

play01:30

to see this I want you to imagine right

play01:31

now on your screen a pushing battle we

play01:33

have a bearish person and a bullish

play01:35

person right there and they're both

play01:37

trying to push price lower and higher

play01:40

now when they both push very strong that

play01:43

might lead to price not going anywhere

play01:45

right because if they both push hard

play01:47

enough price is just going to stay in

play01:49

the same place but if one pushes harder

play01:51

than the other one so the bearish person

play01:53

pushes a little bit harder than the

play01:55

other one that in the first place is

play01:57

going to create potentially a fair value

play01:59

Gap because there's bearish intention

play02:01

which creates the second candle the

play02:03

expansion phase candle of that fair

play02:05

value Gap there's the bearish person

play02:07

pushing price lower but then the bullish

play02:09

person whilst coming into a discount

play02:11

rate like the previous month's low is

play02:13

pushing price higher very strongly as

play02:16

well and how do we know that price right

play02:18

there is getting pushed higher very

play02:20

strongly well if we first look at the

play02:23

complete expansion phase that we had we

play02:26

could have created a complete fair value

play02:28

Gap like this if the third candle would

play02:30

have just already been completely out of

play02:33

the open a bearish candle which it does

play02:36

not do on the next candle it instead

play02:39

pushes higher there's a lot of

play02:41

resistance going against us there's a

play02:43

bullish person right there pushing that

play02:45

price higher aggressively now when we

play02:47

push price higher aggressively on a

play02:49

third candle what does that mean that

play02:51

means that we in the first place might

play02:53

actually create a smaller fair value Gap

play02:55

than expected right there but more

play02:58

importantly there is a lot of boot

play02:59

bullish momentum going against a bearish

play03:02

fair value Gap so the analogy I always

play03:04

like to use is it's like a train right

play03:07

there going into that bearish and

play03:10

there's a mouse a small little mouse

play03:12

trying to stop that train that's not

play03:14

going to work it's again that pushing

play03:16

battle they're pushing back and forth so

play03:18

if a third candle has an aggressive move

play03:21

against the original fvi Gap in this

play03:23

case an aggressive move higher bullish

play03:26

momentum my first thought process is

play03:29

that fa Val Gap is not very likely to

play03:31

hold it's not the highest probability

play03:33

for Val Gap and the highest probability

play03:35

for Val Gap is the third option that we

play03:37

are eventually going to go over if we do

play03:39

want to hold right there then we will

play03:42

most likely see a deeper retracement

play03:44

into the F Gap potentially coming into

play03:47

something overlapping so an order block

play03:49

a breaker block to then continue lower

play03:52

why well very simply s because again

play03:54

it's a pushing battle if we have a lot

play03:57

of momentum going against a certain we

play04:00

can't expect that F Gap to just all of a

play04:03

sudden magically stop that bullish

play04:05

momentum right there it's not going to

play04:07

work we can't expect that small little

play04:09

mouse to stop that train coming at it

play04:11

now why is that then important to

play04:13

understand because once we sting into

play04:16

that Weekly fair value Gap right there

play04:18

if we were to go into any confirmation

play04:20

time frame then people might see already

play04:23

sells right there to continue lower but

play04:26

that's not a good sell opportunity

play04:28

because we have a lot of moment momentum

play04:30

going against it so what do we want to

play04:32

wait for we want to wait for more

play04:34

confirmation instead if we do want to

play04:37

continue lower and that leads back to

play04:38

the basics of understanding trading if

play04:41

we want to be profitable we don't want

play04:42

to take a lot of losses before we take

play04:44

the next winner because if you target a

play04:46

one to two RR and you take two losses

play04:49

right here before you might actually

play04:51

catch the huge winner and we continue

play04:53

lower and that means that you are Break

play04:55

Even Now imagine if you catch three

play04:57

losses before you catch the huge move

play04:59

lower for example right there then you

play05:02

are catching a winner yes but you are

play05:04

unprofitable so if you're targeting one

play05:06

to two risk to reward ratio then ideally

play05:09

only one loss before we take the winner

play05:12

and in an Ideal World of course zero

play05:14

losses before we take the next winner

play05:16

and if we want to take zero losses then

play05:19

there is no shame in just simply waiting

play05:22

for an extra fair value lower and what I

play05:25

mean by that is instead of your usual

play05:27

entry confirmation wait for a little bit

play05:30

more than usual so instead wait for a

play05:33

4our for gap for example and off of that

play05:36

4our for Gap we can out look for new

play05:38

entries to continue lower so the first

play05:40

option we just discussed the Deep

play05:42

retracement option is the lowest

play05:45

probability fair value Gap we can

play05:46

actually look to trade off of now the

play05:48

second option is already a little bit

play05:50

higher probability to actually look to

play05:52

trade off of which is the expansion

play05:55

option the expansion option is also

play05:57

known as a breakaway Gap where again in

play06:00

previous videos I mentioned if we close

play06:02

above the second candle high right there

play06:04

that in itself is as a general rule

play06:07

thumb a breakaway Gap that is true but

play06:11

there is a lot more advanced details

play06:13

that we can go over to see if it is

play06:15

actually a breakaway Gap so the second

play06:18

option the expansion option is where we

play06:20

have the first candle again can do

play06:21

anything it wants second candle right

play06:24

there is again expansion phase candle

play06:26

creating the actual fair value Gap third

play06:29

candle is also an expansion so it's

play06:31

already continuing higher when we have

play06:34

this we can confidently say that this

play06:36

fair value Gap is a breakaway Gap and we

play06:38

will not trade back into that before we

play06:40

actually Reach This draw liquidity right

play06:42

there so what would you want to do you

play06:45

would want to look at the lower time

play06:47

frame so going into a time frame below

play06:49

it to then look and find new fair value

play06:52

gaps which have the third option which

play06:54

we're going to go over next now this

play06:56

Breakaway Gap is quite obvious looking

play06:59

at a Canadian dollar right here I can

play07:01

confident say we are most likely going

play07:03

to deliver right there into the draw

play07:05

liquidity from that high before we

play07:07

actually retrace back into that fair

play07:08

value Gap and if we do retrace back into

play07:11

that fair value Gap into that Breakaway

play07:13

Gap then most likely we are going to see

play07:15

lower prices because it should not

play07:17

retrace that far similar to Australian

play07:19

dollar CHF right here we have that swing

play07:21

high as the current Target for the

play07:23

remainder of this week as well we are

play07:25

leaving Behind These Fair Val gaps again

play07:27

we are most likely not going to trade

play07:29

trade back into that F value Gap because

play07:31

it is a break Gap the third candle is an

play07:33

expansion phase higher right there so

play07:35

what we want to do is ideally find a

play07:37

lower time frame F gap which we can

play07:39

already look to continue higher off of

play07:41

instead but this is quite obvious what I

play07:44

just told you is not rocket science but

play07:47

what we do need to go over is kendle

play07:49

signs we have those very obvious

play07:52

Breakaway gaps but we also have the

play07:54

sneaky Breakaway gaps and the sneaky

play07:56

Breakaway gaps to monster those is where

play07:58

you also need to master candle signs so

play08:01

if we take a look at this example on

play08:03

crude oil we had this as Target after

play08:06

sweeping this discount rate that swing

play08:08

low right there it was the only discount

play08:10

rate that we can still continue higher

play08:12

from so that right there is what we

play08:14

mentioned in the forecast on YouTube as

play08:15

well we can continue higher off of that

play08:18

then on the 4our if we wait for a 4our

play08:20

for higher then what do we see well we

play08:23

have this 4our V Gap right there as soon

play08:26

as this up candle right there closes and

play08:30

that creates this breakway Gap again the

play08:33

third candle just being expansion higher

play08:35

but then afterwards we create a new fair

play08:38

value Gap and this fair value Gap right

play08:40

there is showing or if you know the

play08:43

general rule thumb if we do not close

play08:45

above the second candle high right there

play08:47

we might want to trade back into that F

play08:48

Val Gap to then continue higher off that

play08:50

but that is if we do not understand

play08:53

candle science candle science is the

play08:55

following in Candle science we have a

play08:57

disrespect candle and a respect candle

play08:59

very simply said for bullish examples

play09:01

just inverse for bearish examples for

play09:04

bullish examples if we have a respect

play09:06

candle we have a long Wick at the bottom

play09:09

of that candle indicating that we are

play09:12

respecting something because what is

play09:14

that wick on the lower time frame on the

play09:15

lower time frame that long Wick at the

play09:17

bottom is actually fair value gaps

play09:20

already pointing higher where a

play09:22

disrespect candle is for example this

play09:24

earlier third candle we saw right there

play09:26

no long Wicks on either side of the

play09:28

market just

play09:30

a steady full body up candle right there

play09:33

that indicates that on the lower time

play09:34

frame we also have Fair Val gaps already

play09:36

pointing higher so whenever we have a

play09:39

long Wick right there at the bottom what

play09:42

is that actually that is actually a fair

play09:44

value gap on the time frames below

play09:47

already getting respected so if we drop

play09:50

into the 1 hour right there we see a

play09:52

fair value gap on the 1 hour right here

play09:56

already getting respected meaning it's

play09:58

already been traded into to to then

play10:00

create a new 1hour for Gap right there

play10:02

so at the moment whilst we have a 1hour

play10:05

for Gap sitting right here and on the 4

play10:07

Hour we have this 4our for Gap sitting

play10:11

right there is it realistic at this

play10:14

moment in time whilst we have this draw

play10:17

liquidity sitting right there which we

play10:19

most likely want to deliver towards fast

play10:21

because price action delivering towards

play10:24

a drawn liquidity always happens fast

play10:27

high probability conditions happen

play10:28

extremely fast fast so we might not want

play10:30

to retrace very far where here again the

play10:33

pushing battle right we have that

play10:34

bullish person is extremely bullish it's

play10:37

pushing very hard but the bearish person

play10:40

is not having a lot of resistance is not

play10:42

pushing back a lot so it will not

play10:44

retrace a lot so if the third candle is

play10:47

one of the respect candles that we see

play10:50

in Candle sence then that creates a

play10:53

breakaway Gap similarly we see before we

play10:55

reached that low actually right there we

play10:57

see another Breakaway Gap sitting right

play11:00

there as well where the third candle is

play11:02

a long Wick at the top and it's a down

play11:05

candle and close below the second candle

play11:07

low right there perfect we can already

play11:09

continue lower without retracing back

play11:11

into that fair value Gap because it's a

play11:13

breakaway Gap now a little Golden Nugget

play11:15

in between if you truly want to

play11:17

understand candle science and fair value

play11:18

gaps do you know ict's term immediate

play11:22

rebalance or even a redeliver rebalance

play11:25

all that is is a fair value gap on the

play11:27

lower time frame for example Le right

play11:30

here when we do not create a new V right

play11:32

there but we do have a long Wick at the

play11:34

top right there that still indicates

play11:37

that we can continue lower towards that

play11:39

low right there because we're already

play11:40

respecting a fair value G on a lower

play11:42

time frame that's why we create that

play11:44

immediate rebalance right there so we

play11:46

understand that this fair value gap

play11:48

which is now a breakaway Gap we most

play11:50

likely do not want to trade back into

play11:51

that before we actually look to continue

play11:53

higher this is where we will go into a

play11:56

time frame below it to find a new fair

play11:59

value Gap to continue higher off of that

play12:02

and that fair value Gap is actually the

play12:04

third option fair value Gap the third

play12:07

option fair value Gap is the highest

play12:09

probability fair value Gap we have gone

play12:11

over two options thus far the deep

play12:13

retracement and the expansion they are

play12:15

both the opposite so they have a pull

play12:17

and a push those are two extremes either

play12:19

huge retracement or no retracement and

play12:21

we just continue higher in the middle

play12:24

right there we have balance we have a

play12:27

consolidation third candle where there

play12:30

is a lot of one-sided momentum right

play12:32

here on crude oil to still continue

play12:34

higher towards that Target right there

play12:36

but we consolidate with the third candle

play12:39

sitting right there and the third candle

play12:41

here is not a huge retracement is not an

play12:44

expansion higher already relatively seen

play12:47

to where the full expansion phase could

play12:50

have been created right there it is

play12:52

leaving behind for that full expansion

play12:54

phase almost 50% of the expansion phase

play12:58

so that creat right there a third candle

play13:02

consolidation Perfect Since we are still

play13:05

so bullish that consolidation is setting

play13:07

up perfectly to actually trade back into

play13:10

that Gap to only have a sting into it to

play13:13

then immediately explode higher after

play13:16

that as well that is exactly what we see

play13:19

right there and afterwards if we do

play13:20

follow the 1our for gaps what do we see

play13:22

again right here we see the exact same

play13:27

consolidating third candle right there

play13:29

there before we have a sting into it

play13:31

right there and then we continue higher

play13:33

off that towards the draw on liquidity

play13:36

right there remember the US dollar right

play13:38

here where this fair value Gap is the

play13:40

first option it's a deep retracement

play13:42

most likely or it will just simply not

play13:44

hold since we are expecting that if we

play13:46

go into the 4our ri there what do we

play13:49

actually see we try to reject off that

play13:51

Weekly vup initially we fail to do so

play13:54

create a new 4our high right there third

play13:57

candle what is it consolid ation only a

play14:00

sting into it to then continue higher

play14:02

off of that immediately so if we think

play14:04

this through then there's another

play14:06

important aspect which is arguably a

play14:08

huge underrated aspect is we have

play14:11

something called the tricky third candle

play14:13

and the tricky third candle is if you

play14:16

are for example right here on the daily

play14:18

time frame and you are trying to trade

play14:20

this fair value Gap lower off of that

play14:23

right there and that fair value lower

play14:25

can indeed deliver lower no worries it

play14:28

can do that but we need to keep in mind

play14:31

at that moment in time we are also

play14:33

creating the third candle and we are

play14:35

trading the third candle of a fair value

play14:38

Gap being created where if we are

play14:40

trading the third candle we don't

play14:43

necessarily have a good idea of what it

play14:45

is going to do where if we're trading a

play14:47

second candle we understand that's most

play14:49

likely going to be an expansion phase

play14:51

candle but the third candle has three

play14:54

different options it has the Deep

play14:56

retracement the expansion and the cons

play14:59

consolidation where two of those three

play15:01

options are not good to trade the deep

play15:03

retracement I would argue at that moment

play15:05

in time is not really good to trade we'd

play15:08

rather have it continue lower

play15:10

consolidation is also not the best to

play15:12

trade right there so if you are looking

play15:15

to trade a third candle of any fair

play15:17

value Gap that is about to be created

play15:19

you are essentially betting on that

play15:22

third candle to be an expansion phase

play15:24

candle and to be a breakway gap

play15:26

eventually so that becomes a little bit

play15:28

lower probability can you still trade

play15:30

that yes for sure but you need to watch

play15:33

out for the first signs that might be

play15:35

there that we do not want to continue

play15:37

lower which is where you need to pay

play15:40

attention to a sweep versus a run on

play15:42

liquidity for example that previous

play15:44

candle low right there we sweep that

play15:46

liquidity and we do not run that

play15:48

liquidity that indicates that we do not

play15:50

actually want to continue lower

play15:51

immediately so watch out same for the

play15:54

daily right there if we create a daily

play15:56

for lower watch out when you are Trad

play15:59

the third candle you can trade it as

play16:00

long as you understand a sweep versus

play16:02

run on liquidity which by coincidence

play16:05

will also be the next video that we are

play16:08

going to go over in preparation for that

play16:11

you can also watch previous videos that

play16:13

I made on similar topics like that for

play16:15

example I have made the sweep versus run

play16:17

on liquidity video before but in the

play16:20

next one we will go into more detail all

play16:22

right perfect thank you

Rate This

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Related Tags
トレンド分析トレーディング戦略フェアバリューギャップキャンドルパターン市場予測株式投資技術分析トレーディングテクニック市場動向投資戦略
Do you need a summary in English?