Bitcoin Short Squeeze to $80K Before May?

Summary

The Bitcoin Daily Show discusses the recent positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with Black Rock and Fidelity leading the way. Despite significant outflows previously, there's optimism about increased institutional investment. The upcoming scarcity of Bitcoin, with an issuance rate lower than gold's, is highlighted as a key factor that could drive its value higher. The show also emphasizes the importance of self-custody for Bitcoin holdings to avoid potential risks associated with third-party management.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin's price remains above 70k with ETFs experiencing their first day of inflows after a period of outflows.
• 💹 ETFs had a successful day with inflows of 15.3 million USD, following five days of nearly 900 million USD outflows.
• 🚀 The real money from major financial markets, such as China, is yet to enter the Bitcoin market, indicating potential future growth.
• 🔄 Bitcoin's scarcity is increasing as it will become more scarce than gold within a short period, impacting its value proposition.
• 🏦 Hedge funds currently hold over 15,000 short positions on Bitcoin, hinting at a possible short squeeze around 80k before May.
• 🌐 The adoption of Bitcoin ETFs is expected to rise, with retail investors and smaller hedge funds leading the way, followed by larger institutions.
• 📈 The ETF multiplier effect suggests that the existence of Bitcoin ETFs is leading to more capital flowing into Bitcoin, even outside of the ETFs.
• 🔄 Investors are adjusting their portfolios to include Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and to maintain purchasing power.
• 🏡 The discussion of asset classes highlights Bitcoin's potential as an investment, comparing it to equities, real estate, and gold.
• 🌟 Bitcoin's issuance rate will decrease, making it harder money than gold and positioning it as a strong investment option for the future.

Q & A

What is the current status of Bitcoin's price in the market?

Bitcoin's price continues to hover over 70k, indicating a relatively stable market value at the moment.

How did the ETFs perform in terms of inflows recently?

The ETFs had their first day of positive inflows of 15.3 million after five straight days of nearly $900 million in outflows.

What does the future hold for Bitcoin in terms of scarcity?

In less than 30 days, Bitcoin will become more scarce than gold, further enhancing its value proposition.

What is the current stance of hedge funds on Bitcoin?

Hedge funds currently have over 15,000 short positions on Bitcoin, indicating a bearish outlook by some institutional investors.

Which major financial markets are expected to adopt Bitcoin ETFs?

China is soon expected to approve an in-kind Bitcoin ETF on their Hong Kong exchange, signifying a potential shift in the global financial landscape.

Who are the primary investors in Bitcoin currently?

The primary investors in Bitcoin at the moment are venture capitalists, hedge funds, family offices, and retail investors.

What are the potential future investors for Bitcoin?

The potential future investors for Bitcoin include countries, endowments, pension funds, and insurance companies.

What does the CEO of institutional custodial company Bitgo say about the upcoming Bitcoin market?

The CEO suggests that while there has been a wave of retail investment, larger institutions like hedge funds and pension funds are also starting to move in, indicating a slow but steady institutional adoption.

What is the ETF multiplier effect as explained by Swan CEO Cory Clipson?

The ETF multiplier effect is the hypothesis that the existence of new Bitcoin ETFs will lead to more capital flowing into Bitcoin, even outside of the ETFs, by a significant margin.

How does the Bitcoin issuance rate compare to gold's supply increase?

After the halving, Bitcoin will have an issuance rate of just 450 new Bitcoin minted per day, making it officially harder money than gold, whose supply increases by 1.5 to 2% a year.

What is the long-term outlook for Bitcoin as described in the script?

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is that it is considered to be in a 'Bitcoin Gold Rush' from January 2024 to November 2034, during which the supply to flow ratio of Bitcoin is expected to be infinitely high.

What advice does the speaker give to those who have started their Bitcoin journey?

The speaker advises taking self-custody of Bitcoin by not leaving it on exchanges and to reach out for help if needed, emphasizing the importance of individual responsibility for one's assets.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin ETFs and Market Dynamics

This paragraph discusses the recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting their first day of inflows after a period of outflows. It mentions the anticipation of continued positive inflows and the potential for increased scarcity of Bitcoin, comparing it to gold. The segment also touches on the current state of hedge funds' short positions on Bitcoin and speculates on the possibility of a short squeeze. The speaker, Dante Cook, shares insights on the role of ETFs in attracting more significant institutional investments, such as endowments and pension funds, and the potential multiplier effect these ETFs could have on Bitcoin's market value. The discussion includes quotes from experts in the field, emphasizing the growing interest and movement towards Bitcoin adoption among various investor types.

05:00

💹 Diversification and Bitcoin's Role in Investment Portfolios

This paragraph explores the concept of diversification in investment strategies, emphasizing the need to exchange fiat currency for assets to maintain purchasing power. It examines various asset classes, including equities, real estate, gold, and commodities like cocoa beans, and positions Bitcoin as the apex asset for investment. The segment highlights Bitcoin's issuance rate and its potential to become harder money than gold. It also discusses the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, referring to the upcoming Bitcoin 'gold rush' and the implications of Bitcoin's limited supply and increasing value over time. The speaker advises investors to focus on outpacing inflation and to be cautious of the risks associated with unregulated and speculative investments in the cryptocurrency market.

10:01

🚀 Empowering Investors for Self-Custody and Bitcoin Journey

In this final paragraph, the speaker addresses the importance of self-custody for Bitcoin investors, cautioning against the risks of leaving assets on exchanges and sharing the potential consequences of not taking personal responsibility for one's investments. The speaker provides advice on how to safely and effectively manage one's Bitcoin journey, offering personal assistance for those who seek guidance. The segment concludes with a call to action for investors to take control of their financial future by owning real assets like Bitcoin and to avoid the pitfalls of gambling and speculative tokens. The speaker reaffirms the transformative impact of Bitcoin and the significance of the upcoming years for the cryptocurrency market.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the context of the video, Bitcoin is portrayed as a valuable asset and investment, with its price hovering over 70k and its supply becoming more scarce, making it more attractive than gold.

💡ETFs

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are investment funds and exchange-traded products, traded and listed on stock exchanges much like individual stocks. The video highlights the significance of ETFs in relation to Bitcoin, noting their first day of inflows after a period of outflows and their role in making Bitcoin investment more accessible to a wider range of investors.

💡Inflows

Inflows refer to the amount of new money invested into a fund or investment product. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the positive movement of capital into Bitcoin ETFs, which is seen as a positive sign for the market and a potential indicator of future price trends.

💡Hedge Funds

Hedge funds are investment funds that pool capital from accredited individuals or institutional investors and invest in a variety of assets, often with complex portfolio strategies. In the video, hedge funds are mentioned as having over 15,000 short positions on Bitcoin, which implies that they are betting on the price of Bitcoin to decrease, and there is a possibility of a short squeeze at 80k before May.

💡Short Squeeze

A short squeeze occurs when a rapid increase in the price of a stock or other asset forces short sellers (those betting that the price will go down) to buy it in order to cover their positions, resulting in a further price increase. In the context of the video, a potential short squeeze at 80k for Bitcoin is mentioned, indicating a scenario where a sudden rise in Bitcoin's price could force hedge funds to buy back Bitcoin, driving the price even higher.

💡Scarcity

Scarcity refers to the economic concept where supply is less than demand, leading to higher value and increased competition among buyers. In the video, Bitcoin's impending scarcity is emphasized as it will become more scarce than gold, with a limited supply and a reduced issuance rate, making it an attractive store of value and investment.

💡Institutional Investors

Institutional investors are organizations that invest in financial markets on behalf of themselves or their clients, such as pension funds, insurance companies, and endowments. The video suggests that while retail investors and venture capitalists have been active in Bitcoin, the real big money from institutional investors has not yet fully entered the market, indicating a potential influx of significant capital in the future.

💡ETF Multiplier Effect

The ETF multiplier effect is a hypothesis that the existence of new Bitcoin ETFs will lead to more capital flowing into Bitcoin, even outside of the ETFs themselves. This is because ETFs provide a stamp of approval and accessibility for institutional buyers and financial advisers, encouraging more investment in Bitcoin through various channels.

💡Asset Allocation

Asset allocation is the process of dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, like stocks, bonds, and real estate, to optimize potential returns and minimize risk. The video discusses how investors are adjusting their portfolios to include Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value, reflecting a shift in asset allocation strategies.

💡Self-custody

Self-custody refers to the practice of investors holding and managing their own cryptocurrency private keys, rather than relying on a third-party exchange or wallet service. The video stresses the importance of self-custody as a way for investors to have full control and responsibility over their Bitcoin, reducing the risk of loss or theft due to third-party failures.

Highlights

Bitcoin's price remains above 70k despite recent market fluctuations.

ETFs experienced their first day of inflows after five days of outflows totaling nearly $900 million.

Real money has not yet started flowing into Bitcoin, indicating potential for future growth.

Bitcoin is set to become more scarce than gold within 30 days, enhancing its value proposition.

Hedge funds hold over 15,000 short positions on Bitcoin, hinting at a possible short squeeze.

China is expected to approve an in-kind Bitcoin ETF on their Hong Kong exchange, expanding global access.

The success of ETFs is unprecedented, with Black Rock and Fidelity leading in 2024.

Institutional investors such as countries, endowments, and pension funds are anticipated to enter the Bitcoin market.

The availability of ETFs as a distribution channel is expected to attract more significant investments.

The ETF multiplier effect could lead to 5 to 10 times more Bitcoin being purchased outside of ETF channels.

Investors are increasingly adjusting their portfolios to include Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement.

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high, but Bitcoin is considered a more valuable asset by some investors.

Real estate and gold continue to be popular investment options, but Bitcoin's scarcity makes it an attractive alternative.

The Bitcoin 'gold rush' is expected to last from 2024 to 2034, with significant changes in the market dynamics.

By 2034, the stock-to-flow ratio of Bitcoin will be effectively infinite, marking a new era for the cryptocurrency.

Self-custody of Bitcoin is encouraged to avoid risks associated with third-party exchanges and intermediaries.

The importance of understanding and controlling one's own investments is emphasized to avoid potential scandals.

Transcripts

bitcoin's price continues to hover over

70k as the ETFs had their first day of

inflows after five straight days of

almost 900 million in outflows are we

beginning another several week stretch

of positive inflows from these ETFs has

the real money even started flowing in

yet after the having in less than 30

days Bitcoin will become more scarce

than gold and somehow hedge funds have

over 15,000 short positions on bitcoin

are we going to see a short squeeze 80k

before

May

welcome to the Bitcoin Daily Show I'm

Dante cook head of swan business ETFs

had their first positive day of inflows

of 15.3 million after five straight days

of net outflows of nearly $900 million

these ETFs have been the most successful

of all time and just this year alone

Black Rock and Fidelity hold the number

one and number two spots of the most

successful ETFs and we haven't even

began to see ETF adoption from the other

largest major financial markets in the

world like China for example who is soon

to likely approve a in-kind Bitcoin ETF

on their Hong Kong exchange but as

successful as these ETFs have been so

far the real big money has not even come

yet as most of the money has come in

from Venture capitalists hedge funds

family offices and Retail investors but

the real big money those are countries

endowments Pension funds insurance

companies these are all the players that

are coming next

and have just taken several months to

begin moving listen to what the CEO of

institutional custodial company bitgo

has to say about this Bitcoin we've got

the harving coming up as well

potentially another underpinning of

price but who's been getting into to

these ETFs have you been able to monitor

flows

Mike we have a little bit uh actually so

far I think it's been mostly uh the

smaller ticket sizes so remember

institutions move pretty slowly pretty

glacially frankly um I think we've seen

a wave of retail here over the last two

and a half months um I think it's

getting a little bit bigger but the

institutions you know we've seen some

smaller hedge funds come in larger hedge

funds will come in Pension funds are

coming and endowments are already here

uh so now that we have an ETF available

which is the distribution Channel which

makes it super easy for everybody to

participate um it takes a little bit of

time to go through investment committees

but I think that we're we're starting to

see that runup happen now all through

the summer uh it rhym so you should say

it 80k by May the net result isn't just

going to be the flows that we see into

the ET ETFs themselves but the

multiplier effect listen to what swan

CEO Cory Clipson has to say about the

multiplier effect from the ETFs hey all

it's Corey CEO of swan wanted to give

you a quick rundown on what I've been

calling the ETF multiplier effect so

this is the hypothesis that because of

the existence of the new Bitcoin

ETFs more Capital will flow into Bitcoin

even outside of the ETF f s than would

if the ETFs didn't exist and now we have

more than two months of data uh showing

that more Bitcoin is being purchased

through

nonf Pathways and by a significant

margin I know you've probably seen lots

of tweets from Bitcoin only brokerages

whether it's River strike Swan Unchained

you know everybody's pretty bullish I

can tell you that I think by the by the

19th or 20th of March it was already our

our largest month ever so this is

certainly

happening I actually think that over the

next decade or so it'll be really hard

to actually run the numbers on this cuz

you can't really prove a

counterfactual but uh I actually think

the ETF multiplier effect is going to be

something like 5 to 10x meaning that

because you have Uncle Larry and anti

ABI promoting Bitcoin and cutting

through all of the altcoin noise and

just promoting Bitcoin with their

marketing dollars and giving that that

stamp of approval and that that cya for

institutional buyers and and financial

advisers to say hey if it's good enough

for Larry it's good enough for me and

good enough for my clients I think that

multiplier effect is something like 5 to

10x more Bitcoin that would be purchased

outside of ETF channels because the ETFs

exist so hopefully that helps explain

what I mean when I talk about an ETF

multiplier effect there's clear clearly

a shift going on investors are adjusting

their portfolios and allocations just

look at the Russell 2000 as an example

less than 2% of investors are holding

the Russell 2000 in their portfolio

compared to almost 8% near the great

financial crisis in 2008 it's only a

matter of time before investors realize

that holding Bitcoin is going to be more

valuable than holding let's say the

NASDAQ 100 regardless of what things are

changing within investors portfolios One

Thing Remains the Same

in order to outpace Fiat debasement and

to maintain your purchasing power you

need to exchange your fiat currency for

assets let's look at one asset class

that people have historically invested

in equities the S&P 500 made another

all-time high last week and some people

are even predicting an S&P 500 price of

$7,000 81% of the companies in the S&P

500 are above their 200 Moving Day

average asset class number two real

estate house prices continue to climb

even as mortgage rates soore home prices

across the US Rose for the 12th straight

month asset class number three gold gold

continues to sit just below its all-time

high near $2,200 per ounce and even

cocoa beans the Easter Bunny brought a

sweet surprise for investors before

Easter this year as cocoa beans are up

138% year to dat and have passed 10

$1,000 per metric ton for the first time

ever this weekend people are going to be

beating up kids for Easter eggs melting

down the chocolate and selling the

chocolate to the highest bidder but the

Apex asset that you can invest in is

going to be Bitcoin after the having

Bitcoin will have an issuance rate of

just 450 new Bitcoin minted per day

making it officially harder money than

gold whose Supply increases 1 and 1 half

to 2% a year bitcoin's Supply is going

to be less than so at about 1% per year

and that's just the short-term thesis

for Bitcoin as Michael sailor says for

the next 10 years we're going to be in a

Bitcoin Gold Rush we're in the Bitcoin

gold rush it started in January of 2024

and it will run till about November of

2034 how many people know what happened

in November of 2034 in November of 20134

99% of all the Bitcoin will have been

mined and the last 1% % comes out over

the next 100 years so for all practical

purposes the stock to flow ratio of

Bitcoin is infinity in 2034 it becomes

noise at the beginning of the Gold Rush

no Bank could custody Bitcoin no

Institutional Investor could buy Bitcoin

no Wall Street trading firm when those

spot ETFs were approved that created a

fire or an avalanch the Genies out of

the bottle it doesn't matter who's

elected president next it doesn't matter

who's the next head the SEC no

politician's opinion no Banker opinion

no regulator opinion matters after that

date that kicked off the gold rush I

want to end this video by making a few

final P we all know that outpacing

inflation money printing from the

government wherever your government is

across the world is extremely hard right

now life is hard for a lot of people

across the world but that doesn't mean

that you should gamble First Things

First Federal prosecutors wouldn't be

going after the crypto exchange Founders

if they weren't committing crimes kucoin

executives are just the latest in the

crypto Saga of Executives who are being

tried and prosecuted for potential

crimes that they've committed these

crypto casinos are promoting scam tokens

unregulated Securities in gambling like

coinbase on their homepage you may see

things like Bitcoin or ethereum or

salana or stable coins but when you go

to the trading screen these are the

types of assets that you're going to see

nobody has heard of these tokens it's

inevitable that when you go to the

Easter cookout this weekend you're going

to have some random cousin that's going

to come up to you and saying that he

created his own crypto token and listed

it on coinbase I mean Bitcoin or will

Cole screenshotted a notification from

coinbase for Bonk this morning use a

Bitcoin only exchange and own real

property without having to take the

risks that come with gambling to save

for your future sign up with the link

swan. FL daily to get started on your

Bitcoin journey and one final thing for

those of you who have started on your

Bitcoin Journey you've been watching

these videos you're finally taking the

leap I want to make another plea take

self- custody of your coins don't just

buy Bitcoin and leave it on the exchange

or you might end up like shoh Otani

who's implicated in some weird gambling

Scandal because his interpreter or third

party in between accidentally stole $4.5

million of his own coins to pay for you

guessed it illegal gambling debts sh

Otani abdicated responsibility for his

assets and entrusted a third party or an

interpreter to tell him what was going

on with Bitcoin you don't need anyone to

tell you whether you own Bitcoin or not

but that's only possible once you hit

the withdrawal button don't be in a

scandal like sh Otani saying I didn't

know I didn't know what was going on you

have a choice and we're telling now take

the leap and if you're afraid I'll help

you along that Journey please send me an

email at Daily Swan bitcoin.com and I

personally will help you on your journey

to self- custody and with that we're

signing off for today this is Dante cook

with sw.com happy

[Music]

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