THE 4 BULL RUN CRYPTO CATALYSTS: M2, PRESIDENCY, 13F & RE-ALLOCATION.

Summary

The live stream discusses four catalysts that could potentially lead to the next Bitcoin Bull Run, as inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph. The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions but delves into historical patterns that Bitcoin is said to be repeating from 2016. The first catalyst is the involvement of major institutions, evidenced by recent 13F filings showing significant investments in Bitcoin ETFs. The second is the M2 money supply, which historically correlates with the rise in Bitcoin's price. The third is the impact of the U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty and subsequent resolution. Lastly, the speaker highlights the potential for reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold and real estate to cryptocurrency. The video also touches on the recent positive net inflows into ETFs and the activity of dormant Bitcoin wallets, suggesting a possible trend of smart money moving into the cryptocurrency space.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker discusses four catalysts they believe could lead to the next bull run for Bitcoin, inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph.
• 💬 The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions, considering them to be of little value.
• ⚖️ Bitcoin's price history is compared to its performance in 2016, suggesting a pattern that might repeat with a significant price spike following a reaccumulation period.
• 💵 Major institutions are increasingly investing in Bitcoin, as evidenced by recent 13F filings, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment.
• 📊 The M2 money supply has historically influenced asset prices, including Bitcoin, and the current supply situation is being watched as a potential catalyst.
• 🤝 The outcome of the presidential election is seen as a potential market influence, with different implications depending on who is elected.
• 💼 The speaker suggests that reallocating funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to cryptocurrency could provide a significant boost to the crypto market.
• 🌐 Global wealth and derivatives markets are vast, and even a small reallocation of funds towards cryptocurrency could have a substantial impact.
• 📉 Despite recent inflows to ETFs, the speaker notes that the amounts are relatively small and that the overall trend had been negative prior to the most recent positive shift.
• 🐋 On-chain analysis, such as that provided by Lookonchain, can offer insights into the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, which can be informative for market participants.
• 🎉 The speaker will be attending the Consensus conference in Austin, providing an opportunity for networking and potentially meeting viewers.

Q & A

What is the speaker's opinion on technical analysis (TA) and price predictions?

The speaker believes that technical analysis has its place but is not a fan of price predictions, considering them to be worthless.

According to the speaker, what is the significance of the article from Coin Telegraph?

The article from Coin Telegraph is significant because it discusses how Bitcoin is repeating its 2016 history and presents a price prediction, which the speaker dismisses but uses as a starting point to discuss potential market catalysts.

What is the first catalyst for the next Bull Run mentioned by the speaker?

The first catalyst mentioned is the involvement of major institutions, such as Black Rock, and the 13F filings that reveal significant stakes in ETFs related to Bitcoin.

What does the speaker think about the role of the M2 money supply in the Bitcoin market?

The speaker believes that the M2 money supply plays a crucial role in the Bitcoin market, with an increase in money supply often correlating with an increase in Bitcoin's price.

What is the speaker's view on the impact of the presidential election on the market?

The speaker suggests that markets typically dislike uncertainty associated with elections but once the election is over, regardless of the outcome, the market tends to stabilize and move forward.

What is the fourth catalyst mentioned by the speaker?

The fourth catalyst is the reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to the cryptocurrency market.

Why does the speaker find it interesting that major institutions are investing in Bitcoin ETFs?

The speaker finds it interesting because it indicates a growing acceptance and legitimacy of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle, which could potentially lead to increased market activity and growth.

What is the significance of the 13F filings in the context of the speaker's discussion?

The 13F filings are significant because they are a legal requirement for institutions to disclose their equity holdings, providing transparency into major investments, including those in Bitcoin-related ETFs.

How does the speaker feel about the recent movement of dormant Bitcoin wallets?

The speaker finds it intriguing and noteworthy, as it could indicate a shift in sentiment or strategy among long-term Bitcoin holders.

What is the speaker's perspective on the current state of ETFs in relation to Bitcoin?

The speaker is optimistic about the return of net inflows to ETFs after a period of outflows, suggesting that this could be a positive sign for the Bitcoin market.

What does the speaker suggest for individuals interested in following the strategies of large Bitcoin investors?

The speaker suggests following resources like 'Look on Chain' and 'Smart Money Crypto', which track and analyze the activities of large Bitcoin wallets to potentially copy their trading strategies.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Catalysts for the Next Bull Run in Bitcoin

The speaker discusses four catalysts that could potentially lead to the next bull run in Bitcoin, as inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph. The focus is on how Bitcoin's current trajectory is reminiscent of its 2016 history, with a particular emphasis on institutional investments, ETFs, and 13F filings. The speaker dismisses price predictions as worthless but finds value in technical analysis. The discussion also touches on Bitcoin's price movements following halving events and the potential for a significant rally similar to the one that occurred in 2016.

05:02

💼 Institutional Investment and its Impact on Bitcoin

This paragraph delves into the role of institutional investment in Bitcoin, highlighting the recent 13F filings that reveal major institutions have taken significant stakes in Bitcoin ETFs. The speaker mentions specific investments by Symmetry Investments, Rubric Capital, and Bracebridge Capital, emphasizing the strategic use of options for downside protection while positioning for potential rallies. The summary also notes BlackRock's comparatively smaller stake in its own ETF and invites viewers to share their thoughts on this development.

10:04

💵 M2 Money Supply, Elections, and Reallocation as Market Catalysts

The speaker outlines additional catalysts that could influence the market, including changes in the M2 money supply, the outcomes of presidential elections, and the potential for reallocation of funds from other investment classes into crypto. The discussion covers the historical correlation between the money supply and the performance of the S&P 500, the uncertainty surrounding elections, and the possibility of significant reallocation from gold, traditional equities, and real estate into the crypto market. The speaker also addresses the recent inflows into ETFs and the competitive dynamics between Grayscale and BlackRock in terms of Bitcoin holdings.

15:06

🐋 Tracking Whale Wallets for Investment Insights

In the final paragraph, the speaker discusses the strategy of tracking whale wallets to gain insights into market movements. They reference the account 'Lookonchain' on Twitter, which specializes in on-chain analysis of large Bitcoin transactions. The summary highlights the recent activity of two dormant wallets that transferred out a significant amount of Bitcoin, reflecting the potential influence of such transactions on market sentiment. The speaker also mentions the importance of identifying and following smart money moves in the crypto space and teases an upcoming appearance at the Consensus conference in Austin.

Keywords

💡Bull Run

A 'Bull Run' in financial markets refers to a period of rising prices, typically driven by strong buying activity. In the context of the video, it is used to describe an anticipated upward trend in the price of Bitcoin, which is a central theme of the discussion.

💡Catalyst

A catalyst is a factor that accelerates a process or reaction. In the video, the speaker discusses four catalysts that could potentially trigger the next Bull Run for Bitcoin, emphasizing their importance in driving market dynamics.

💡Technical Analysis (TA)

Technical Analysis is a method used in finance to predict the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The speaker mentions TA but dismisses its relevance for making price predictions, although it is acknowledged as having a place in market analysis.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network. The video revolves around the historical price movements of Bitcoin and its potential future performance, making it a fundamental keyword in the discussion.

💡Price Prediction

A price prediction is an attempt to estimate the future value of an asset. The speaker expresses skepticism about the value of price predictions, stating that they are 'worthless,' which contrasts with the focus on historical patterns and potential market catalysts.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. The video discusses the role of ETFs in attracting institutional investment into Bitcoin, highlighting their significance as one of the catalysts for a potential Bull Run.

💡13F Filing

A 13F filing is a report required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management. The speaker refers to 13F filings to emphasize the increasing involvement of major institutions in Bitcoin investments.

💡M2 Money Supply

M2 Money Supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily-convertible near money. The video discusses the relationship between the M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price, suggesting that an increase in money supply could be a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth.

💡Presidential Election

The U.S. presidential election is a recurring event that can influence market sentiment and investment decisions. The speaker mentions the election as a potential catalyst for market movement, noting how past elections have affected investor behavior and asset prices.

💡Reallocation

Reallocation refers to the process of moving investments from one asset class to another. The video suggests that reallocation of funds from traditional assets like gold, real estate, or equities to Bitcoin could be a significant driver for the next Bull Run.

💡On-Chain Analysis

On-Chain Analysis involves the study of blockchain transactions to derive insights about market trends and behaviors. The video references 'On-Chain' analysis when discussing the activity of large Bitcoin wallets, indicating how such analysis can influence investment strategies.

Highlights

Discussion on four catalysts to the next Bull Run in the cryptocurrency market, inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph.

Critique of technical analysis (TA) and price prediction methods, with a focus on historical patterns instead.

Wick Capital's analysis suggesting Bitcoin is repeating its 2016 history, with a significant price prediction mentioned.

The importance of institutional investments in Bitcoin, with references to major institutions and their 13F filings.

Details on Bracebridge Capital's significant investment in Bitcoin and their complex options strategy.

The correlation between the M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price, with insights on liquidity effects.

The impact of the 2020 Coronavirus recession on Bitcoin's price and the subsequent market rebound.

Discussion on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential effects on market uncertainty and cryptocurrency.

The potential for reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold and real estate to cryptocurrency.

Analysis of the cryptocurrency market cap in comparison to global wealth and the potential for significant reallocation.

Positive news on ETFs returning to net inflows after a period of outflows.

On-chain analysis by Look on Chain, tracking whale wallets and their trading patterns for potential investment insights.

Two dormant Bitcoin wallets, inactive for almost 11 years, suddenly transferring out 1,000 Bitcoins.

The strategy of copying trades from identified 'smart money' wallet addresses for potential gains.

Upcoming attendance at the Consensus conference in Austin, Texas, for networking and meeting with venture capitalists.

Emphasis on the time sensitivity of the discussed topics and the importance of staying informed in the rapidly changing crypto market.

Transcripts

hello everybody Welcome to the MonDay

live stream and uh just like we were

talking about I believe that there are

catalysts to the next Bull Run and

specifically there's four catalysts and

this is what I'm talking about and

actually this was all spurned on by an

article uh this was from coin Telegraph

and it talks about how wck Capital they

had put together some uh some nice ta

some nice graphs and they talk about how

this Bitcoin is repeating 2016 history

perfectly and then there a 350,000 price

prediction first of all these are two of

my most um non-satisfactory types of uh

presentations I like to give first of

all anything with ta and second of all

anything with the price prediction I

think I think the price predictions are

worthless the TA does have its place in

it but this is what we have I'm going to

totally skip the price prediction

because again those are worthless and

let's just go into this this was pretty

good Rec Capital said hey Bitcoin has

repeated a 2016 history perfectly

offering a downside Wick below the

bottom of its current reaccumulation

range within a three-week window after

the having and this was you know looking

back at 2016 now the previous having

that we had was around May 11th May 12th

2020 correct me in the comment section

of course we just had one on April 20th

2024 and of course we know that after

that around that having time we were in

the 70 around 70k and of course now

we're coming down to the 62 60k level

and it's been a dip just like it was in

2016 but then it re fired up moving

forward and that got me thinking about

well essentially where we're going and

it says here re highlight re highlighted

Bitcoin is currently in the last prehab

retrace which was a 40% a 48% Spike just

six months later on December 30th to

$973 which was pretty good so again it

got me thinking about well if that was

2016 what this reminded me of was either

doesn't really matter about the Bitcoin

having but it was what happens after the

having there's always a catalyst

and when I took a look and I remember

this this is the same type of thing that

we also saw in 2020 so again we had a

Bitcoin having somewhere around May 12th

right around

$9,800 and it kind of it took a little

bit of a dip but then it just kind of

went sideways for a bit which I really

don't care about this is the time I

think to re to start to accumulate again

if you haven't done so already if you

got kind of shook out people talking

about hey this is not going to go

bitcoin's going to zero sure but as we

can see here in 2020 what happened

happened well there was some catalysts

and it's the same Catalyst again what

happened in 2020 well we had the Corona

virus right and then things shut down

and we had the M2 money supply uh get

get reignited with quantitative easing

we had a presidential election and we

had a reallocation of funds but there's

something one thing that's different

from back then well we can see that in

September everything was going good and

then November of course October November

December and we hit alltime highs going

into

2021 and I kind of feel like that's what

we could be doing today because of these

four catalysts and this is what I really

comes down to so first of all this was

the one Catalyst we didn't have back

then and back then we didn't have major

institutions coming in sure we had Elon

Musk come out and say hey we're gonna

allow you to buy our Teslas uh using

Bitcoin and they Al actually also put

Bitcoin on their on their balance sheet

which was great and a nice piece but we

didn't have these ET ETFs this this ETF

we didn't have the institutions coming

in and we didn't have what's called a

13f filing which is being broadcast

today and actually the U the deadline is

May 15 so this is what what's going on

major institutions reveal significant

stakes in Black Rock uh the ETF ahead of

the 13th following date here's what it

is according to the latest 13 half

filings of course they ALS have they all

have to do that with the SEC and the

IRS symmetry Investments has a 61.5

million holding all right that's nice

rubric Capital 69.7 million and

Bracebridge Capital now the largest ibid

holder which I had no idea who these

people were with over a 100 million

invested in shares I had to take a look

at them like well who is Bracebridge

Capital apparently is a hedge fund low

Canada Boston and they have as far as

asset CER management 12 billion doar so

if they're putting a $100 million in

that's a pretty big piece but just wait

they like to play play the risk game and

they like to play it well so brace

Bridge's position is offset by a complex

set of options valuated over 270 million

for the SEC feling a mix of calls and

puts were plac creating a complex delta

neutral combo that combines elements of

a strangle and a straddle with a bullish

bias it will profit

mostly if ibit stages a large rally I.E

if the price of Bitcoin goes up and the

ETFs of course go up but the long puts

provide some downside protection I got I

have no problem with that that's a

pretty smart thing to do and I thought

was interesting also about this this

whole piece here was that black rock

followed at 13 F and revealed it only

had a 6.6 million

stake in its own ETF so kind of

interesting let me know what you think

about that in in the comment section so

that was one of the catalysts of course

the ETFs the 13f filings these major

institutions remember today's the 13th

so we got two more days before the

actual deadline we're going to see more

in tions come out we're going to see how

much they've actually put into it and

again I I've always said it's a step in

the right direction so that's one

Catalyst the next Catalyst we had back

in the day and this has actually changed

is the M2 money supply and if we take a

look and I'm stealing all this

information from Ben's website because I

love this deal and what I did was I we

always overlay and you can overlay

whatever you want you can do Bitcoin uh

you can do let's see

indices the S&P 500 Index pretty much

whatever you overlay and going all the

way back to the 1960s as the money

supply goes up

miraculously the S&P 500 goes up it's

amazing that that works out of course in

these gray sections we have what is

known as a recession however the

government wants to Define that these

days is fine but going back to crypto

let's take Bitcoin

again let me zoom in so people can see

this going back to the very early days

we just see that of course it's great

when we have more liquidity how do we

get more liquidity well the money

printer goes Brewer right treasury comes

out fed comes out and say hey you know

what we need we need more money and

that's exactly what happens now we have

Peaks and valleys of course because

things get overheated and you know we've

talked about this yesterday in

yesterday's video of course why things

go up why things go down and my five

rules but as you can see right here this

was the last time we just took a look at

Corona virus recession very very short

recession I might add because money

printer came on money printer came on

and what did the price do it skyrocketed

and we can see as it goes up and up

there was a point though in April where

things just went a little too crazy

crashed down again here's November or

December well November I think the Peak

at 63 I think it was

67 but then we can see a plateau here as

people started to sell off sell off sell

off and what's interesting in this piece

is that you notice that quantitative

easing turned into quantitative

tightening that means that the money

printer was shut off for quite some time

but yet you can see here as it came down

to its last

point was actually right around here

wasn't it the blue line is Bitcoin the

red line is the M2 money supply what

happened around January December

December 2022 January 2023 that's when

we bottomed out I think Bitcoin was

around I want to say

17,700 and then the money printer got

gets shut off and we we go sideways for

a bit but isn't an odd thing this is the

this is one of the first times this

actually happened I mean to a point

where you been pretty much stagnant on

this money supply and what does

bitcoin's price do just gone up and it's

one of those catalysts because of thing

we just talked about ETF and 13 half

filings and big institutions coming in

so that's the second one and the third

thing just like we had in 2020 we had a

presidential election funny enough we

have the same people battling and I'm

not gonna go into this big time because

nobody likes talking about politics but

I will say it's the same thing it's the

same thing going on again

do not like uncertainty they don't like

the uncertainty of pre-war but it's a

funny thing once you get past

presidential elections which are

essentially a war or real wars getting

into it then all of a sudden the

Market's like okay that's okay so look

on the bride side I know somebody hates

somebody in this picture I can guarantee

it I can feel their seething hatred go

to either Biden or Trump maybe RFK Jr

who hates RFK Jr I don't know worms but

in all

honesty let's just let's just say like

this if Biden gets gets reelected of

course the world's not going to end okay

this is not gonna end and then you can

just look at and go well at least the

markets are going to you know settle

down they're gonna say okay we got Biden

for four more years see that works out

and then you just move move forward then

of course if you get RFK Jr you're like

hey that's that's crazy this will be the

first time a third party cidate actually

won let's see what his his stances are

and he's pretty Pro crypto so that's

good for us and couple of different

other things that he's that on board

with hey might be fantastic and then of

course as everybody's booing let's say

Trump gets elected well that sucks but I

mean he's kind of warming up to crypto

and maybe in in the future if you say

well you know Trump won and I hate his

guts and of course democracy and The

Whole World's Gonna gonna end now on the

bright side you can use all those gains

in your crypto portfolio to move to

Canada wherever you want to go so just

look on the bright side these are these

different catalysts which of course the

presidency M2 money supply and the 13th

filings for the ETF and the last one as

I talk about is reallocation it's a

funny thing and I've made the same

mistake there is a lot of money sloshing

around right now we have around

2.4 trillion dollar in our entire crypto

market cap and when we take a look at

this this little square right here is1

billion I'm not going to go over this

whole thing because it's it's I've

beaten this dead horse way too much but

but I will just say like this I don't

know how the heck gold has almost 12

trillion market cap I still don't get it

if you look at it I mean people I mean

you know some of the the gold books

first of all I gold and silver as well

and they'll say well the intrinsic value

and the trinsic value and it's great for

microprocessors blah blah blah blah blah

you know 90% of what people use gold for

is speculation the other 10% is what

they call the intrinsic value even

though the intrinsic value is whatever

we we hold value to be so I guess I

don't see why we can't take one trillion

away from that I just don't get it and

then I'm not going to talk about this

but but okay look at this the S&P 500

how many people are doing great in the

uh in just traditional equities

Securities stocks that's 36 trillion

could we peel away one trillion from

that from people going you know what I

don't like this game and I don't really

like what's going on maybe I should go

go into crypto a little more I mean just

either half a trillion debt not a big

money supply always we already talked

about more debt look at that that's a

lot of debt but then this part and I

think this is where where we could

really find a lot of people because this

is this has been my conclusion you know

on this channel I love talking about you

know my pleasure in buying real estate

land that type of things short-term

long-term rentals but in all honesty do

you ever own it you don't ever own it it

kind of sucks it kind of sucks because

if you buy your house and you pay off

your house today guess what you're never

going to own it because you're still

going to have to pay taxes on it and

that goes goes on

forever forever and that is even if you

are a disabled

veteran in certain States you do not

have to pay your taxes however when it

goes to your kids or your grandkids

guess who gets taxed well that happens

there and then also when they take it

over they're gonna get taxed at some

point so you'll never really you'll

never ever ever on real estate not to

say that it's not a bad investment I

think it's solid I think it's great it

has fantastic returns it's done done for

me really well me and my wife over the

decades but 326 trillion come on we

can't peel away five trillion out of

that and then of course if we even go

down farther Global wealth yes of course

I get it derivatives I mean come on it's

$600 trillion doll we can't take away

five or 10 trillion from there so I just

look at this and I go why can't we peel

away those funds for a reallocation

anyhow let me know what you think about

that in the comment section then also

just to give everybody a little bit of

ray of sunshine or not too much ETFs are

returning to net inflows following four

weeks of outflows now on this channel I

try to be a little bit balanced not give

you everything too too pretty because it

never goes up in a straight line and

this was a pretty good article

interesting you know I mean just the

title was great

but just know that the inflows total 11

16.8 Million last week and I was reading

this I'm like oh that's pretty good

until I got to the actual graph I'm like

this is very underwhelming I must tell

you so over here is looking pretty great

right but in the last four weeks

beforehand we've had negative negative

negative negative and this little piece

here is $16.8 million so I guess it's

going in the right direction I'm very

happy if you take a look at hey Apollo

uh.com fantastic website to do all the

the tracking of the ETFs just so you

know that grayscale Bitcoin is on the

precipice of losing out to I bit which

would be Black Rock for the most amount

of Bitcoin being held in the beginning

it was

600,000 Bitcoin that was held by

grayscale and now it's down at

289 uh black rocket 275 and micro

strategy very close at 214,000 and of

course once that starts to get depleted

then we don't have so many outflows of

what's going on so I think that's good I

like to to see that and then also just a

little uh little interesting piece of

news because we always kind of sometimes

I I I look a little bit too narrowly

into today I I should really zoom out

like I talk about and this was a I think

a pretty good piece to talk about that

which was this is a great a great

account over on X called look on chain

and I I linked their account in the

description and it's a pretty cool thing

what they do what they do is they

essentially take a look at whale wallets

or just because of course onchain

analysis you can you can do do that but

what you want to do is take a look at

some of the bigger wallets that are out

there and just pretty much track what

they do and just kind of copy trade them

and this is what look on chain does and

it's a it's a really great piece I'm me

just you take a look at it but uh one of

the things they talked about

here two wallets that have been dormant

for almost 11 years Bitcoin wallets

transferred all their 1,000 Bitcoin out

in the past 20 minutes so they haven't

moved they've been

dormant for almost 11 years and they

just transferred out in 20 minutes

wallet whatever this is received 500

Bitcoin 62k of the time on September 13

2013 when the price was get this

$124 124

bucks 500 Bitcoin I mean back then it

seems like a lot of money right and uh

of course you know what that how much

that is

worth yeah that was worth well it's 60.9

for all thousand Bitcoins that's roughly

$30 million

crazy in 10 years where can you do that

can't do that wallet the other one

received 500 Bitcoin 62k at that time

and price is 124 so again uh fall that

account it's pretty interesting they

just said like this was from this is

what what they had H uh pierced on their

on their timeline how did I turn $1,000

on 30,000 with smart money I found a

smart money in madic in June very good

at buying lows and selling highs I had

this address to my watch list and they

just pretty much copied them boom boom

boom boom boom they bought over here and

it's the same thing uh my man over at

smart money crypto does he's been on the

channel a couple times I also linked him

in the description what he does is the

same type of thing he finds these these

big wallet ad or these big whale wallet

addresses and just follows them and then

just says okay this one looks like he's

done some pretty good trades I'm gonna

follow them again gives you some

information goes from there follow him

on YouTube he just got his X account

taken down so I'm trying to help him get

him back into his ex account a little

bit back as he puts it back up so

hopefully get some more followers

because smart kid and lastly if you are

at consensus in Austin May 29th of 31st

I will be there uh I've got to be there

to meet some VCS not my favorite thing

to do but it's because of this project

I'm involved in and uh I will be there

to hopefully meet some of you so uh find

out I'll do you all the posts on X and

that is it for today so look it went a

little bit long but lot of interesting

information that's going on right now

but that's it for today so look like

today's video give it a thumbs up

consider subscribing everything we talk

about is time sensitive