Милов про развал путинской экономики

Summary

The video script discusses the Russian economy's challenges, focusing on the Central Bank's monetary policy and its impact on inflation and economic stability. It highlights the upcoming September meeting where a potential interest rate hike to 20% is anticipated, causing market concerns. The speaker speculates on the government's budget plans and military spending, suggesting a possible increase in the deficit. The script also touches on the criticism of the Central Bank's policies, the potential for a more compliant figure to lead the bank, and the broader economic implications of continued fiscal stimulus, warning of high inflation rates reminiscent of Turkey or Argentina.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker anticipates an increase in the Central Bank's key interest rate to 20%, reflecting a general expectation in the market.
• 📉 There's a notable decline in the market, with indices such as the Rgbi government bond index falling, indicating a pessimistic outlook.
• 🏛 The Central Bank, led by Elvira Nabiullina, is preparing for a potential banking crisis that has been long anticipated but seems to be approaching now.
• 🗓️ September 13th is highlighted as a key date, possibly for a Central Bank meeting, while the end of the month might bring clarity on the government's budget plans for the next year.
• 💵 The discussion suggests that the military budget will likely increase, leading to larger deficits, which could be influenced by decisions on continuing military operations or seeking a ceasefire.
• 💸 The high interest rates are already having a negative impact on the economy, with no signs of rates decreasing in the near future.
• 🍇 There was no seasonal decrease in prices for fruit and other products, with inflation showing no signs of slowing down in August.
• 🤔 The speaker questions the Central Bank's understanding of the economy, suggesting that their forecasts and plans are unrealistic and not based on a clear grasp of economic mechanisms.
• 💬 There's criticism of the Central Bank's policies, with some arguing that they should lower interest rates to make credit more accessible and stimulate the economy.
• 🚨 The speaker warns of potential high inflation scenarios if the government continues to inject budget funds into the economy without a clear monetary policy direction.

Q & A

What is the significance of September 13th for Russia's economy?

September 13th marks a meeting of the Central Bank of Russia where a decision on raising the interest rate is expected. It is considered a critical point, as many anticipate the rate will be increased to around 20%, affecting various economic factors.

Why are the markets falling according to the script?

The markets, including the government bond index (RGBI), are falling due to the anticipation of an interest rate hike by the Central Bank. This suggests that economic conditions are worsening, and there are no positive expectations in the near future.

What does the speaker mention about the banking crisis in Russia?

The speaker references a forecast from a center led by Belousov's brother, warning of an impending banking crisis. This crisis has been long anticipated, and the speaker suggests it is now close to materializing.

What are the potential implications of the interest rate rising to 20%?

An interest rate of 20% would indicate that no economic improvement is expected, as high rates negatively affect credit availability and overall economic activity. Hopes for rate reductions and economic recovery would be diminished.

How has inflation in Russia behaved recently?

Contrary to typical seasonal declines, inflation has not decreased during August. Prices for fruit and vegetables, which usually lower inflation, did not have the expected effect, leading to consistent price increases throughout the month.

What are the expectations for the 2025 economic outlook?

The speaker suggests that the Russian government is struggling to plan beyond the short term, with forecasts for 2025 being uncertain. The lack of predictability in factors such as currency exchange rates and inflation makes long-term planning difficult.

What role does military spending play in Russia's current economic situation?

Military spending and the large deficits it creates are seen as a significant factor in Russia's economic difficulties. The Central Bank has pointed to these expenditures as a major contributor to inflation.

What criticism is being levied against the Central Bank's policies?

Critics, including prominent figures like Chemezov, argue that the Central Bank's monetary policies, such as high interest rates, are exacerbating economic problems without solving inflation, which remains persistently high.

What scenario does the speaker predict if the Central Bank changes its leadership?

The speaker predicts that if a more lenient figure replaces the Central Bank's current leadership, it could lead to a relaxation of monetary policy. This would potentially mirror the hyperinflation scenario of the early 1990s, with rapidly rising prices and economic instability.

What is the potential consequence of monetary policy loosening in Russia?

If the monetary policy is loosened while budgetary spending continues at high levels, the speaker warns of hyperinflation similar to the crises seen in countries like Turkey or Argentina, with inflation potentially reaching tens or even hundreds of percent.