一口气了解全球经济 (下) | 我是怎么分析经济问题的

Summary

在本期视频中，主讲人继续探讨全球经济展望，重点关注了过去两年中美国和欧洲的经济情况。美国经济显示出令人费解的稳定性，尽管面临诸多问题，如债务和商业房地产的挑战，但消费驱动的经济增长和政府对供应端的刺激措施似乎有效抑制了预期中的衰退。相比之下，欧洲经济显得无力，尤其是德国，面临高利率和能源危机的双重打击，导致经济增长乏力。视频最后，主讲人分享了自己分析经济展望时的方法论和思维框架，并通过具体数据和政策分析，为观众提供了一个清晰的经济状况总览。

Takeaways

• 🇺🇸 美国经济在2023年表现出稳健的增长，GDP增长约2.5%，通胀率从高点的9%下降到不足4%，失业率保持在历史低位以下4%，工资增长强劲约5%，股市因生成式AI的帮助而上涨近30%。
• 📉 2022年布隆伯格报道，经济学家给出美国100%会陷入短期衰退的概率，然而2023年的数据显示美国经济稳如老狗，甚至颠覆了菲利普斯曲线。
• 🛍️ 美国消费者对利率的敏感度降低，加之之前的低利率环境下的大规模刺激措施和贷款需求的释放，使得加息对经济的影响有限。
• 💰 美国居民在疫情前的低利率环境和经济发展势头强劲中积累了额外储蓄，加之政府疫情期间的财政补贴，使得即便面临利率上升和物价上涨，消费者仍能保持消费水平。
• 🏗️ 美国政府的财政刺激政策，包括基础设施投资刺激，继续发挥效果，助推经济增长。
• 🏦 美国面临的潜在风险包括商业房地产市场的不确定性和政府债务问题，这些问题可能对未来经济稳定构成威胁。
• 🇪🇺 欧洲经济在2023年增长缓慢，GDP增长仅0.4%，面临能源危机和供应链问题的挑战，尤其是德国经济受到重创。
• 🔋 德国面临的挑战包括高利率、财政紧缩、能源危机和汽车行业的电气化冲击，这些因素共同导致其经济衰退。
• 💡 观察经济时，可以从GDP、CPI和失业率这三个基本指标入手，进而深入分析政府的财政政策、中央银行的货币政策以及重要资产价格等，构建起完整的经济分析框架。
• 📊 分析经济问题时，应从主要矛盾和关键因素出发，避免陷入细节而忽视了问题的核心。

Q & A

为什么2022年经济学家给美国经济100%的衰退概率？

因为在2022年末，美国面临高通胀、快速加息、经济紧缩、能源危机、供应链短缺和股市下跌约20%等问题，这些因素使得市场普遍悲观，认为美国经济必将进入衰退。

2023年美国经济为何能保持稳定？

尽管面临众多问题和风险，但美国经济在2023年表现出意外的稳定，主要得益于强劲的消费驱动、工资增长、股市上涨和通胀的降低。美国的消费者支出持续强劲，帮助抵消了加息和其他宏观经济挑战的影响。

美国消费为何如此强劲？

美国消费者对利率变化的敏感度降低，疫情期间的大规模财政刺激措施和低利率环境下的储蓄积累，以及一些政府的财政刺激政策仍在发挥作用，共同推动了美国的消费强劲。

为什么即使面临加息，2023年美国的GDP和就业率仍然保持强劲？

美国的强劲消费驱动了经济增长，加之供应侧的恢复和政府对供应侧的刺激，帮助缓解了加息对经济增长和就业的潜在负面影响。

2023年通胀为何下降？

通胀下降主要是由于供应侧的恢复，包括能源和供应链问题的缓解，以及美国政府将刺激措施从需求侧转向供应侧，强化供应链和基础设施，从而帮助降低了通胀。

2023年，哪些因素对美国经济构成了潜在风险？

美国经济面临的潜在风险包括政府债务问题的持续加剧、商业房地产市场的不稳定，以及高息环境下商业地产贷款到期可能导致的金融市场风险。

美国的消费数据为何在加息期间依然强劲？

美国的消费数据强劲主要是由于消费者的额外储蓄、对利率变化的低敏感度，以及政府财政刺激政策的延续效应。

2024年美国经济增长预测是多少？

国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测美国2024年经济增长为2.1%，世界银行预测为1.6%。

2023年欧洲经济为何表现不佳？

欧洲经济在2023年增长缓慢（0.4%），主要受到2022年能源危机的重创，高利率和财政紧缩的影响，以及消费者倾向于储蓄而非消费的行为。

为什么说德国经济是欧洲最具代表性的负面案例？

德国经济受到能源危机、汽车行业的挑战以及对俄罗斯天然气的依赖削弱等问题的严重影响，导致其在2023年表现不佳，经济收缩0.3%，成为欧洲经济增长率排名中的低位之一。

Outlines

00:00

🌍全球经济展望：美国篇

本段讨论了美国经济在过去两年的表现与经济学家的预期相悖，如何展现出异常的稳定性。尽管面对2022年经济学家对美国经济100%进入短期衰退的预测，2023年的数据显示美国经济不仅稳定，还出人意料地繁荣，包括GDP增长2.5%，通货膨胀率从高点9%下降到4%以下，以及失业率保持在历史低位。同时，股市因为生成式AI的帮助而大幅上涨。然而，也存在着一些问题，例如美国政府的债务问题和商业地产的挑战。

05:01

🏠美国经济面临的挑战与消费者行为

讨论了美国面对经济挑战时的消费者行为，解释了为何尽管面临利率上升和经济不确定性，美国消费者的消费依然强劲。原因包括低利率环境下的高额储蓄释放、额外储蓄的消耗、以及美国政府的财政刺激政策仍在发挥作用。尽管存在各种经济风险，如房地产市场的冷却和商业地产问题，但消费驱动的经济增长模式仍在持续，反映出美国消费者对利率变化的低敏感性和持续的消费动力。

10:03

🌆美国商业地产风险与债务问题

深入探讨了美国商业地产作为当前美国经济面临的最大风险之一，详细分析了由于疫情导致的远程工作趋势对商业地产需求的影响，以及随之而来的商业地产价格下跌和相关贷款问题。同时，提及了美国政府长期面临的债务问题，以及持续的利率上升可能对政府债务成本的影响，展现了这些问题对美国经济未来的潜在威胁。

15:05

🇪🇺欧洲经济展望：挑战与机遇

对欧洲经济在2023年的表现进行了回顾，指出其增长乏力，但避免了衰退。尤其聚焦于德国，作为受能源危机重创最严重的国家之一，其经济收缩明显，面临着高利率和财政紧缩的挑战。此外，探讨了欧洲各国普遍的消费者行为，即倾向于储蓄而非消费，以及由此带来的经济增长缓慢。分析了能源危机、汽车工业的挑战等因素对德国及其他欧洲国家经济的影响，指出欧洲经济的根本问题在于创新不足和人口老龄化。

20:06

📈经济分析框架与知识树

介绍了作者分析经济时的方法论，即通过建立“知识树”来理解复杂的经济现象。强调了经济、价格和就业这三个基本因素的重要性，并指出了财富差距作为一个被经济学家忽视但对人们生活非常重要的因素。通过细化到次级数据（如PMI、核心通胀率、零售销售等），结合政府的财政政策和中央银行的货币政策，形成了一个从宏观到微观，从关键点到细节的分析框架。同时，强调了在处理复杂经济问题时，要能够抓住主要矛盾，避免陷入细节中无法自拔。

25:07

🤝观众互动与结论

在视频的最后，鼓励观众分享自己对于视频主题或其他经济现象的看法和理解，以促进交流和讨论。同时，强调了moomoo平台在宏观数据收集和公司财务报告方面的价值，认为这能帮助用户简化复杂问题，寻找主要矛盾。最后，作者希望通过这两期视频，帮助观众更好地理解全球经济，建立起查看这个世界的视角和分析框架。

Keywords

💡GDP增长

GDP增长指的是一个国家或地区国内生产总值在一定时期内的增加量。在视频中，GDP增长作为衡量经济表现的关键指标之一，用以展示不同国家的经济状况。例如，提及2023年美国的GDP增长大约为2.5%，以及欧洲的GDP增长仅为0.4%，通过这些数据反映了不同地区的经济活力和稳定性。

💡通货膨胀率

通货膨胀率是指在一定时期内，商品和服务的平均价格水平上升的百分比。视频中提到，美国的通货膨胀率从高点的9%下降到了不到4%，而欧洲则从10%降至略高于3%，显示出不同经济体对抗通货膨胀的不同成效。这也展示了通货膨胀对经济及人们日常生活的深远影响。

💡失业率

失业率是指劳动力市场中未就业但愿意并正在寻找工作的人口占劳动力总数的比例。视频提到美国的失业率保持在历史低位的下方4%，这通常被视为经济健康和劳动力市场稳定的标志。低失业率通常意味着较少的人口失业，而高就业率有助于促进消费和经济增长。

💡货币政策

货币政策是指中央银行为了控制货币供应量、调节经济的总需求、控制通货膨胀或促进经济增长所采取的行动。视频中提到美国中央银行准备停止加息，并开始缩减资产负债表，这表明了美国在对抗高通胀后，正试图通过调整货币政策来稳定经济。

💡商业房地产

商业房地产指用于商业活动的房产，如办公楼、商场等。视频中提到由于疫情导致的远程工作趋势，美国的商业房地产需求大幅下降，进而影响了房地产价格和金融市场的稳定性。这展示了非传统因素对经济领域的重大影响。

💡财政刺激政策

财政刺激政策是指政府采取的旨在刺激经济增长的财政措施，如减税、增加政府支出等。视频中提到，美国政府的一些财政刺激政策，如基础设施刺激计划，仍在产生效果，这些措施有助于增加就业和推动经济增长。

💡供应链

供应链指的是从原材料的采购、加工到最终产品的制造和分销等一系列环节组成的网络。视频提及2022年的供应链短缺问题和能源危机，这些都对全球经济产生了重大影响，尤其是在推高通货膨胀率和干扰生产活动方面。

💡利率敏感性

利率敏感性指的是借贷需求对利率变化的敏感度。视频中提到美国消费者对利率的敏感性降低，这是因为之前的低利率环境下，许多人已经锁定了较低的贷款利率，因此即使后来利率上升，对他们的影响也不大。这解释了为什么利率上升并没有显著抑制消费。

💡能源危机

能源危机是指由于能源供应短缺或价格暴涨引发的经济和社会问题。视频中提到2022年的能源危机对全球经济，特别是欧洲经济造成了重大打击，导致了价格上涨和生产能力下降。

💡政府债务

政府债务是政府为了筹集资金而向国内外借款形成的债务。视频提到美国政府的债务问题不断突破上限，这反映了长期财政不可持续的风险，可能对未来经济稳定性构成威胁。

Highlights

Introduction to the global economy outlook, continuing from discussing Japan's troubles and India's strength to the situation in the United States and Europe.

Analysis of the US economy's inexplicable stability despite predictions of recession, showcasing strong GDP growth, reduced inflation, and low unemployment rates in 2023.

Examination of the factors driving the strong US consumption, including low interest rate sensitivity, excess savings, and government fiscal stimulus policies.

Discussion on how the US managed to reduce inflation through supply side recovery and government subsidies, challenging the effectiveness of Fed's interest rate hikes.

Insight into the potential risks facing the US economy, focusing on commercial real estate challenges and the government's escalating debt problem.

Exploration of the European economy's struggle, particularly Germany's recession, the energy crisis, and challenges in the automotive industry.

Highlighting the importance of consumption as a key driver for economic growth, contrasting US spending habits with those in Europe and Japan.

A look at the implications of high interest rates on the housing market and the significant risk posed by the commercial real estate sector in the US.

Insights into the role of technological advancements and the stock market's performance, particularly the impact of generative AI, on the economy.

Presentation of the methodology for analyzing the economic outlook of countries, including the importance of a 'knowledge tree' for understanding complex economic relationships.

Examination of the central bank policies, interest rate adjustments, and their impact on economic indicators like GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates.

Discussion on the significance of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure investment, and supply-side reforms in mitigating inflation and stimulating economic growth.

Analysis of global economic trends, with a focus on the contrasting economic performances of the G7 countries.

Reflection on the unpredictability of economic trends and the challenge of forecasting in the face of geopolitical risks and market dynamics.

Final thoughts on the need for innovative approaches to economic analysis and the value of engaging with diverse perspectives to understand global economic complexities.

Transcripts

Hello, you must have been waiting for a long time

Today we'll continue with global economy outlook

In the last episode, we talked about Japan’s troubles and India’s strength.

In this episode, we will continue to talk about

the situation in the United States and Europe in the past two years.

At the end of the video

I'll share with you

some ideas and methodologies when I

look at the economic outlook of these countries

I will give you a brief peek at

my little knowledge tree.

Okay, without further ado, let’s first look at the United States

First, let me show you a comparison.

We'll take 2019 before the pandemic as a benchmark and

take a look at the GDP growth of the G7 countries.

It is very obvious that

the United States is far behind others

and the ones at the bottom

unsurprisingly, are Germany and United Kingdom

To sum up

US economy in one word

it might be words like strong, stable etc

but I would sum it up as

inexplicable

Why do I say this?

Saying that their economy is stable, which is normal

but it is inexplicably stable

So stable that it subverted the understanding of many economists

I'm not exaggerating

Look at this

Bloomberg's article in 2022

Economists have given a 100% probability

that the United States will fall into a short-term recession.

If you look at the US 2023 data

it is as steady as an old dog

even subverted the Phillips Curve

even the market was confused

It's like there is a person

if I punch him,

he doesn't get angry or fight back or scold me.

Instead, he treats me even better

It's just so inexplicable

So today let’s explore

what’s going on with this

First, as usual,

let’s take an overview of the U.S. economy.

In 2023, U.S. GDP growth is about 2.5%.

Inflation dropped from it's high point of 9%

to less than 4%.

The unemployment rate remained at a historical position of below 4%.

Wage growth remained very strong while

remaining around 5%.

The stock market rose by nearly 30% with the help of generative AI.

The central bank began to shrink its balance sheet and preparing to stop hiking up interest rates.

It was expected that things will start to return to normal in 2024.

However, at the same time, there are actually quite a lot of problems.

For example, the debt problem of the U.S. government,

which keeps breaking through the ceiling

the commercial real estate problem that you may often hear about.

We will talk about it in a moment

First, let's go back to

the 2022 Bloomberg report just now

Let's take a look at why the market expected that

US would 100% fall into recession.

Look at what the state of the US was at the end of 2022.

Inflation was flying in the sky, the Fed was raising interest rates rapidly.

economy is tightening,

and the world is facing an energy crisis, supply chain shortages,

and the U.S. stock market has fallen by about 20%.

Geopolitical risks are still very high

and more

Looking at this situation

who would be optimistic about the U.S. economy?

So everyone says it is 100% in recession

It was considered a bonus question at the time.

Then at the beginning of 2023,

not only did many banks in US collapsed

also the collapse of Credit Suisse,

which actually confirmed everyone’s expectations for the United States.

Although it was very turbulent

but the market had a certain feeling that

what should happen has happened

Who would have thought that

the US economy would suddenly change its course

The crisis in the banking industry did not spread to the real economy

and inflation also went down on its own.

Some may think that it's reasonable

that inflation has gone down

After all, the Fed is raising interest rates like crazy

but if you look at the GDP and employment rate of the US

they are still very strong

so it's amazing that it

hasn't been so affected by the interest rate hikes.

Actually, the problems and risks we just mentioned

are still there,

but there is a powerful force here

carrying all the burden

like wild horse

and pulling the GDP of the US forward.

This wild horse is

consumption

It's very strange

that Americans are really capable when it comes to spending money.

You should know that

although an economy is very complex

we talked about exports, chips and mortgages all day long

but in fact the most important

and most powerful engine

is actually the consumption of each of us.

Because if you spend one dollar, others will earn one dollar, right?

It might just be one dollar but

the economic gears will start to move.

Having such strong consumption in the US

drives Europe and Japan in jealousy.

For the past decades

they used up all tricks in the sleeve but still can't bring consumption up

Everyone just doesn't spend money.

The United States is just the opposite. x

it doesn't matter how much you raise the interest rates

Everyone still buys things aggressively.

Look at the consumption data of the United States.

It doesn't look like there's an interest rate hike

There's only a dip during pandemic

and after that it still goes up

it's like being drawn with a ruler.

And the retail data,

they don't drop even a little

What are people buying?

Actually its services are declining

It is similar in every country during pandemic

But in the US there's a strong growth of

something called Durable Goods

Durable Goods

such as electronic products,

fitness equipment, bicycles, etc.

Why do you think it is?

Why is it that depsite

the Fed raised interest rates to such a rate

U.S. consumption is still rushing forward like a stubborn donkey,

no, like a wild horse keeps moving up

To be honest,

I'm not exactly sure too.

Even the market does not have a consistent explanation.

After all,

economists have predicted a 100% recession before

now they are being slapped in the face

so they can only look for some small reasons,

which may more or less have some

impact on stimulating consumption and stimulating the economy.

But as for which is the main reason,

I think it is up to everyone to make their own judgment.

I will first give three explanations that I think may be more reliable.

The first reason

is because currently, consumers in the US

have very low sensitivity to interest rates.

What does that mean?

Because the US did not directly raise interest rates this time.

Before this rate increase,

in response to the pandemic,

there was a wave of large-scale stimulus measures and interest rate cuts.

Therefore, many companies and individuals

borrowed with loans under such

low interest rate environment

Many of my friends in the United States

took out loans to buy houses in that low interest rate environment.

Actually it

greatly released the demand for loans in the economy.

After that, the Fed increase interest rates, right?

Anyway, the mortgage is already locked,

raising interest rates actually has nothing to do with me.

I still pay those mortgages every month.

This is the so-called reduction of interest rate sensitivity.

It actually comes from the interest rate falling first and then rising.

The rise after that

was because

everyone had hedged and locked it up,

so the impact of raising interest rates on the entire economy was not that big

More or less like that

Let’s skip the minor details.

The second explanation towards Americans high consumption

is because they are consuming their

extra savings.

Before the pandemic

US had been in low interest rate environment

the momentum of economic development was also very strong.

This actually gave everyone

a lot of extra savings in their hands.

At the beginning of the pandemic,

the U.S. government focused on spending money on subsidies for everyone,

so that made everyone had more money.

So after the interest rate hike,

although there were difficulties and prices increased

but because everyone still had money,

they could still maintain the original consumption level

This is why many economists

predicted that in 2024

the consumption momentum in the US will not be as strong

You can see from this graph

that the money in everyone's hands has actually

been consumed.

In fact, the Fed has also published many articles

to discuss the issue of additional savings.

It also feels that

this thing is persuasive

but not strong.

The third explanation

is that some of the US government's fiscal stimulus policies

including infrastructure stimulus

are still having an effect.

This is relatively intuitive.

In addition, there are some explanations such as

artificial intelligence has activated the market,

and the rise in stock prices has brought about wealth effects

There are also changes in everyone's psychology.

After the pandemic, people figured out that just spend as you like

and many more.

In short, the rise of US consumption has driven up GDP.

Yes

this question is not over yet, think about it slowly

the Fed raising interest rates

if it does not strongly suppress demand

then the rate hike

which ought to play its part that is

suppressing economy

did not work.

This explains why the demand is strong

but the inflation rate still drop.

It ’s interesting to see the problems

are connected one by one.

What is the reason for this?

The most important thing that brings down the inflation rate

is not demand or the Fed

it is supply

Let’s take a look at how this round of inflation started

On the one hand, it’s a problem on the demand side, right?

The government prints money for everyone,

and everyone’s demand starts strong. Consumption leads to rising prices

But at the same time, part of the reason

is caused by insufficient supply on the supply side.

For example, the oil crisis

The shortage of chips in 2022

and various supply chain problems

led to rising prices

So why did inflation drop in 2023?

It's not because the demand has cooled down,

but because the supply side has recovered.

Everyone has returned to normal.

It’s time to get back to work

When inflation rises,

the U.S. government also very reasonably changed

the original stimulus on the demand side

to the current stimulus on the supply side.

Originally they give money directly to consumers,

but now it has turned into subsidising and stimulating factories and companies.

They also passed various bills

such as the "Infrastructure Investment and Job Act"

"Inflation Reduction Act", "Chip and Science Act", etc.

Anyway, it is strengthening supply strengthens infrastructure

So did you notice that

the Fed raising interest rates,

it may not be the most critical reason for suppressing inflation.

Instead, it may be that the U.S. government

provides some reform subsidies to the supply side

that suppress inflation.

Maybe even if

the U.S. government does nothing,

just resumes production normally after the pandemic.

Everyone get back to work

the inflation may automatically come down

The wonderful thing about the economy

actually lies in how these factors link with each other

or intricate relationship between them.

Actually some investment platforms

we can follow these key economic data

to help us judge the economic situation

For example, the global Chinese-friendly one-stop trading platform

moomoo

has key indicators of financial data.

We talked about

the key data and policies of the US

moomoo can receive the news rapidly

and can directly compare historical data and expectations

to facilitate investors to quickly grasp market signals.

In addition to macro data and company's financial report,

moomoo also has excellent financial report snapshots

and summary of highlights

integrating it according to the logic of financial analysis

which saves us the need to collect information across platforms.

For example, NVIDIA

just by one swipe

you can know that its focus is on the growth of data center business.

moomoo is also very useful for

tracking market hot spots.

For example, Pelosi, who is highly discussed by everyone

you can directly see her positions

in the concept section.

There are also six advanced condition orders.

For example, options support trailing stop loss,

which can more efficiently execute your own investment strategy

and control risks

Recently, moomoo has also landed in Malaysia, the seventh country.

Currently, with more than 21 million users worldwide

you can invest in U.S. stocks, Malaysian stocks,

Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong stocks, A-share funds, options and bonds with one account.

moomoo also prepared account opening benefits

for users in various regions.

There are 15 US stocks

transfer to moomoo to get rebate up to US$5,000

and Canadian is $2,400 Canadian dollars.

Malaysian users also get to enjoy benefits

Its cash income plan gift called Cash Plus

is also continuously upgrading

Cash deposited and withdrawn at any time in the account

can have safe and high-yield

I have put the information at the top of the comments.

those of you who are interested can get it there.

Let’s go back to the United States.

Next, let’s take a look at

some of the biggest potential risks

or hidden dangers faced by the U.S. economy.

The first is real estate.

If you look at the breakdown of the US economy over the past two years

the most disappointing is real estate investment.

This is actually very easy to understand.

30-year loan interest rate,

was at 3% in 2021

now it's 7%

Such a big change in interest rates

will definitely cool down the housing market.

However, in terms of personal real estate,

it actually does not have the biggest impact.

After all, the demand is there and housing prices have not dropped.

The biggest problem is probably the biggest risk that the US cannot avoid in the past year.

We often hear that

the biggest risk that US cannot avoid

is commercial real estate.

Why is that?

It’s not just a matter of high interest rates.

Because of the pandemic,

many people may have discovered that

working from home is actually not bad

and this has greatly reduced the market demand for commercial real estate

Moreover, it is very likely

an irreversible structural change from bottom up

This has led to the rapid decline in commercial real estate prices.

Look at the change in commercial real estate prices

every time the Fed raises interest rates.

This time, the decline is the most obvious.

Since the interest rate hikes,

commercial real estate prices has fallen by more than 10%.

Some high-end office buildings in places

like Manhattan and Los Angeles

have even been sold at half-price clearance sales.

Let me tell you, this is not

as simple as just the owner losing a little money

because these commercial properties

carry huge sums of loans behind them.

and a quarter of these loans

will mature within the next two years.

At such a high interest rate,

if demand continues to drop off a cliff,

banks or financial intermediaries

holding these collaterals

may be facing huge losses,

and may even explode.

In other words, these commercial properties

have tied themselves to the entire financial market

through bank loans or leverage of

securitisation instruments such as MBS.

If it collapse

it is likely to spread quickly to the entire market

or even the world.

On the surface these banks

especially small banks may seem calm

but actually their balance sheets

have begun to seriously deteriorate

How much has it actually deteriorated?

What will happen next?

What measures will the Federal Reserve take?

We can only wait and see what happens.

In the long run,

the U.S. government still has a potentially huge risk.

It can be said that its biggest long-term problem

is its debt problem

In fact, it is not just the United States,

governments globally

are facing the same problem

Repeated rises in interest rates

may cause the government's debt costs to continue to rise.

In the short term, you may not feel that this problem is big.

Governments such as the United States and Japan

still can afford to pay the interest

but it’s unsustainable.

You can't have the government go and borrow money

to settle whatever problems arise in the economy.

Like the United States, they have actually tried

to limit their debt expansion through bipartisan games,

government shutdowns, etc.

but it seems that the effect is not very good at the moment.

As for this issue, it is not very urgent.

For the government,

it is more just words and

to actually implement it

how to specifically reduce expenditures

In short term it seems like there's always

more urgent things that need to be stimulated and that need to spend money

These problems in the United States

whether it is government debt or commercial real estate,

are actually quite deep problems

we briefly touched on them today

and will discuss them in detail if we have the opportunity.

This is the general outlook of the U.S. economy.

Because the chain we just mentioned is relatively long,

let me sort it out for you.

We talked about how it might fall into recession,

but it did not

reason being

the consumption is strong.

So why is consumption strong?

We talked about few reasons

but why can inflation fall despite strong consumption/.

OK, because supply has increased

and strong consumption has indirectly led to strong employment.

Then we talked about its risks

including its financial products, commercial real estate, which

may come from the U.S. government debt in the long term.

Generally speaking, in 2024, the market generally predicts that

the US economic growth

will not be as strong as in 2023,

but whether it can achieve a soft landing

and avoid recession actually depends on this year.

The IMF predicts that the US economic growth will be 2.1%.

The World Bank is 1.6%.

As for the Fed’s interest rate cut rate

actually in December last year,

its official dot plot almost made it clear that

it would cut by 75 basis points in 2024

but the market just didn’t believe it.

I looked at the futures market at that time, it is expected that

the Fednwill cut interest rates by 150 basis points in 2024.

I don’t know why

Wall Street views the Fed so aggressively

As a result, when the inflation data came out in January and February this year,

it seemed that there would be a rebound,

and Wall Street immediately gave in

Sorry.

It turns out that the idea of ​​150 basis points was too naive.

I took it back and

the futures market immediately returned to 75 basis points.

It is roughly expected to cut interest rates three times,

which falls in the same range. This is reasonable.

It cannot be too radical, after all, this is an election year.

The Fed wants to avoid misunderstandings

that it is taking side

So in an election year, its actions are relatively cautious.

Next, let’s take a look at the European economy.

I won’t specify to each individual country

It'll be about European Union + UK

I don't know if you get this feeling that

when mentioning the European economy

it makes people feel like yawning.

So we try to get through it faster

and make you feel less sleepy

I can sum up the European economy in one word

Lifeless

Europe's GDP growth in 2023 is 0.4% (updated)

If we want to be optimistic,

we can say that it almost avoid falling into recession.

However, this is not easy.

After all, the energy crisis in 2022

actually hit Europe very hard.

The good part is that

inflation has dropped from 10% at the beginning of 2023

to just over 3% now.

Actually, part of the reason

is that the economic cooling has indeed been relatively severe,

and even if inflation has been extinguished,

the unemployment rate has remained at a historically low level.

The worst performing countries in Europe

is the former European economic engine

Germany

Let’s take a look at

the ranking of the world’s major economies in terms of growth rate in 2023.

Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.3%,

third from the bottom Netherland

fourth from the bottom, UK

fifth from the bottom, European Union as a whole

and further forward is Italy and France.

What's going on in Europe?

Actually, the problems faced by these countries are relatively similar

and Germany

is the most prominent and extreme one here.

So we'll use it as example

and talk about

what are the dilemma they are facing now.

First of all, the most basic is Europe is indeed facing high interest rates

and fiscal austerity in various countries.

After all, controlling inflation must be the first priority

Moreover unlike US, Europe does not have

inexplicably high consumption.

Actually, employment in Europe is pretty good

and even wages have risen a lot.

Europeans tend to choose to save

rather than consume.

This is also a normal reaction of the market when facing a crisis.

I feel that our market situation may not be good,

if you have money, you must save it first.

When everyone saves money and prepares for the winter,

winter will really come.

If you look carefully at Germany's consumption,

it is still reasonable, not that bad

but if you look at what it spends on

is mainly on necessities such as energy and food,

rather than heavy industry, chemical industry, etc.,

These are Germany’s strong point

When the economy cannot turn around

it will naturally face the risk of recession

There is also an energy crisis.

In fact, after 2022, the energy crisis in

most countries around the world has been basically alleviated,

but Europe has been hit really hard.

We have done a special episode before to talk about this energy crisis

Among European countries

Germany is the most dependent on Russia's natural gas

Originally

there's a pipeline that

was inserted directly into the heart of Germany.

Now it suddenly stopped.

Look at this graph

the impact was a cliff-like decline

especially in Germany

a country with very heavy industry,

chemical industry, and automobile manufacturing, etc

they are very dependent on energy.

It is not as simple as

spend money to buy some energy elsewhere.

The key is that if the energy cannot keep up,

then production capacity must be cut.

Chemical giant BASF,

have been forced to lay off 2,600 people

This is not over yet. There is also a third very big impact,

which is the automobile industry that Germany is most proud of.

Look at its two main export targets,

Europe itself and China. Actually, the demand is not very good

to make it worse

it has also been greatly impacted by the wave of electrified.

China's automobile exports have increased five-fold in three years.

Look at Germany.

Originally, the export side was facing weak demand

and now the competition is so fierce.

This has caused Germany's automobile exports to drop by 40%

compared with before the pandemic.

What pushed Germany to the altar before?

Almost unlimited demand of global industrial product,

cheap energy, tight globalisation

but these factors have almost all reversed in the past two years.

It is unavoidable that Germany goes into recession

And I think this is purely my personal opinion.

The German government is really very

self-disciplined.

Note that I put this self-discipline in quotation marks.

It does not mean that everyone goes to bed early and gets up early every day to exercise

but that it is very self-disciplined in terms of financial policy

and has very strict self-requirements.

They don't borrow money unless when desperate, they don't invest.

Under normal circumstances,

when facing such a large-scale global impact,

the government should take up the banner and

make targeted investments to actively stimulate.

However, Germany does not do it

Their government debt to GDP

lay still at around 50%-60%, doesn't move much

It feels a bit like

everyone is driving

over in the United States and Japan, they are soaring and flying.

meanwhile in Germany, you're so slow that you're about to stop.

not only that you are pressing on brake and pulling hand brake

Time to time, they may adjust the seat belt or something.

This kind of self-discipline is indeed a good thing in the long term.

But in the short term, you will feel that there is a lack of flexibility,

which will cause Germany to fall into short-term pain.

Actually, the fundamental of the European economy, including the German economy,

is not a day or two

If we extend this timeline a little longer

and compare the GDP of the EU and the United States,

you will find that before the financial crisis, they were still clinging on to each other

After the financial crisis, they broke apart.

It cannot be said that the United States threw the EU away.

It's the European Union that's just lying there.

On the surface,

we can say it's the European debt crisis, inflation, etc.

But the fundamental reason is actually the innovation and system,

the aging population, etc.

To be honest, I've researched these issues for a long time

I thought it was meaningless

Let's not waste our brain cell

leave this problem to the Europeans

to figure out a solution slowly.

In 2024, the EU predicts that GDP will increase by 0.9%

and inflation will be controlled at 3%

which is probably better than in 2023

but not much.

Fundamental problems

are definitely not that easy to solve in a short while.

So if you look at the European economy,

it makes sense to say that it is lifeless.

Well, we have spent a lot of effort

and 20,000 words

to have a general overview of the global economy

I don’t know how everyone feels.

I hope you won’t feel particularly bored.

Anyway, I tried my best.

To be honest, when I read those reports before,

it really gave me a headache.

They were very obscure and boring

It’s not human language at all.

I basically have to stand up and rest for a while after reading a page

Those of you who make it through here, here comes your bonus

Let’s briefly talk about

how I look these countries

and how to understand their complicated economy.

Last year I made a video

to talk to you about how to learn

and think about the importance of building a knowledge tree.

Today is a good case study.

I think those who can listen to it

even if you have never studied economics before

you can get it.

Let's look at the paradigm for looking at this economic issue.

On the fundamental level, we look at 3 things

the economy, prices, and employment,

which generally correspond to the three most common economic indicators

GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate

So generally the central bank or the goal of the government

to put it bluntly,

is to make these three figures look better.

What is reflected behind it

is that its economy is generally not too bad.

I think there is another one that may be very important to people's livelihood

but many economists are not particularly concerned about

that is the wealth gap.

The ones mentioned are first-level factors,

which are a trunk of the big economic tree.

So if you look at

every country and every economy

we mentioned just now

we actually mainly look at these three things

These are actually like an ultimate indicator.

It's like saying what score you got

in the final exam.

Once you know what score you got, you will definitely have to go back and look up

why I failed, which question did I get wrong?

This is equivalent to

looking at secondary data to find out the reasons,

there may be more subdivided data

such as PMI, core inflation

wage growth, retail sales, etc.

This will have different emphasis

in different countries and periods.

For example, in the United States

focus on the employment data

they look at Nonfarm Payrolls

later the market focus on inflation

But if you just look at CPI, there might be too many interference

so you have to dig deeper

to see whether it is rental housing, oil, or food.

These subdivided economic data

are used to measure the economy.

Only then will you know that you may have made more mistakes in this area.

Now let’s think about how to change

So how to change?

You look at the government’s fiscal policy , including

the central bank’s monetary policy.

combine with some major asset prices,

such as stocks, treasury bonds, real estate, foreign exchange, etc.,

to form such a set of analysis frameworks.

The complexity lies in

the connections among these data

Therefore, the more professional people may be, the more detailed they will look

At the fundamental layer it is simple

Let me repeat it: Economic, prices and employment

It is actually top-down

primary to secondary

from key points to details analysis framework.

Does it sound simple?

Is it that simple?

That’s right, it's that simple.

Although it sounds simple

it has been really helpful for me to understand the economies

of these countries in the past two years.

Sometimes when you see that the details are very complicated,

it is easy to get confused.

So what should you do at this time?

pull it out and jump to the upperlevel

so you don't get caught up in the details

and can find the main contradiction.

If you don't have such a framework of economic data

then when you read news report

about consumption rate, savings rate

and the youth unemployment rate

you may feel that there is a lot of information input

but your mind may go blank in the end.

You may not be able to remember anything.

Once you form such a basic framework,

even if you have no economic foundation,

your knowledge framework

will become more and more complete

every time you listen to the news and

every time you watch Lin's video

Instead of a bunch of

bits and pieces of details that you can't remember

When you have this primary and secondary framework,

it will actually help you find the main problems and main contradictions.

It's akin to when you get test result that says you failed

After the analysis,

you may have a general conclusion.

For example,

You didn't learn linear algebra well

or was too slow in answering the questions.

These attributions

are your reasonable attempts to find some main contradictions

But if you tell me that I failed this time

because I get the third question wrong,

how do you explain the remaining twenty-seven questions?

This is a matter of not grasping the priority.

You may think this is too simple

Who would make such a mistake?

Actually when it comes to some very complex

economic issues and economic systems,

you may not be so good at judging

the weight between various factors.

For example,

if I analyse that the sharp rise in the Indian stock market

make investors happy which ignite economy growth

This analysis may sound logical at first glance

but in fact,

because the proportion of investors in India is very low,

some data say it is 5%,

and some data say it may be more than ten percent

In short, it is relatively niche.

it does have a certain driving effect

but its weight is too small

so generally it is not the main factor.

If we change to another country,

such as the United States, it is possible

because the United States

is a country with the financial market as its financing center.

You see, everyone’s pension funds are placed in it

A conservative estimate is probably more than half of the population invested in stocks

For example,

if I say that ASML’s revenue surge

has led the development of the Dutch economy growth

many people will think it makes sense.

Think about it, ASML

has monopolise on high-end lithography in the world.

Of course it is the engine of Netherland's economy.

Does it push the growth?

It definitely did

but the main factor for Netherland economic growth

is not ASML

Look at its stock price

in 2023 , it is indeed very good.

But the economy of the Netherlands is miserable.

Didn’t we just look at the 2023 GDP growth ranking?

The Netherlands is ranked ahead of Germany and third from the bottom

It is a country with a GDP of more than trillions.

Factors such as sluggish real estate and

weak consumption

are actually far greater than a performing ASML.

It's like if I say

Moutai's good performance has promoted China's economy,

you may think it's a bit ridiculous after listening to this.

That's how it is

So you see

when analysing complex issues such as the economy,

it is not just establishing a logical chain and that the story sounds interesting.

The stock market soar and led to Indian economic growth

ASML lift the GDP of the Netherlands.

These chains are all reasonable

but they are not the main problem.

Why do people sometimes say in the comments that

Lin’s explanation

is very simple and easy to understand,

but I may be a bit boastful,

but I really

don’t to come up with a bunch of information and a bunch of data

and slap it in your face

For example, in this episode

I can actually put all the points in this research report

about what affect the Indian economy

and factors that affect the development of US

and listed all of them out

Saves me the time

But you may be confused at the end.

I try my best

to tell you these not so important details

Saying which part you don't need to know

clarify the main part

sorting out the main ideas

are the most difficult thing in writing the draft.

What I want to convey in the video

may not be about the operation of the Fed,

or the twenty algorithms to calculate inflation

and the messy operations of shorting stocks

but the common underlying logic behind them.

The underlying logic of the Fed’s economic decision-making,

the underlying logic of the linkage between inflation and the economy

or those messy short selling methods

There is a set of underlying logic behind it.

It may not be correct,

but it is indeed the outcome of

my research and thinking process.

So you see

actually moomoo's macro data collection and company financial reports

are quite valuable.

Why?

Just like the knowledge tree we just talked about,

it doesn't just pile all the information on you in one go

but it combed through it and summarise it logically

it also filter out some key and core data

to help you simplify the complex and find the main contradiction

moomoo also keeps giving out bonuses

Sounds great right?

I will leave the details of the bonuses in the comment section.

We have talked a lot.

I just hope that these two videos can be helpful for everyone

to understand the world or

help you to establish how to look at this world.

If you have your own opinions, thoughts

or understandings towards the topics

or countries mentioned in these two episodes

You can splurge your heart out in the comment.