State of the U.S.-China relationship as countries compete economically | 60 Minutes

Summary

这个视频讲述了中国对美国企业的吸引力如何随着时间的推移而减弱。曾经，中国庞大的消费者市场吸引了无数美国公司，但现在知识产权盗窃、扩大的间谍法律和对商界的恐吓使得在中国经营变得充满风险。美国和中国的关系因北京对台湾和南中国海的激进行动、去年的间谍气球事件等问题而变得紧张。同时，中国经济遇到困境，出口增长放缓，债务累积，青年失业率飙升。虽然一些美国企业在中国取得了成功，如星巴克和波音，但许多外国公司对习近平领导下的商业环境感到担忧。视频还探讨了中国的长期人口和经济问题，以及美中在全球战略、安全和经济领域的竞争。

Takeaways

• 🇺🇸🇨🇳 美国公司因知识产权盗窃和对商界的恐吓使用扩大的间谍法而停止在中国的投资。
• 🚢 由于北京对台湾和南中国海的挑衅行为，以及去年的间谍气球事件，美中关系变得紧张。
• 💰 中国经济面临挑战，出口增长放缓，债务累积，青年失业率飙升。
• 🚫 许多西方记者难以进入中国报道这些问题，但美国大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯的邀请为一个采访提供了机会。
• 🔒 尽管中国政府对外界宣称开放商业，但实际上对美国等国的企业进行了突击检查和关闭。
• 📉 中国经济增长放缓，许多经济学家预测未来增长率将降至2-4%。
• 📚 中国政府在试图平衡经济增长和对数据及信息的控制之间存在矛盾。
• 🏗️ 中国的房地产泡沫破裂，导致大量的未售出的空置房产和开发商的债务危机。
• 📈 尽管面临经济挑战，一些美国公司如迪士尼和Aptar仍在中国扩大投资。
• 🤖 中国在电动汽车和人形机器人产业方面快速发展，展现了技术创新和制造能力。

Q & A

为什么美国CEO们过去对中国充满憧憬?

主要是因为中国巨大的消费者群体一直对他们有很强的吸引力。中国市场潜力巨大。

美国公司目前面临在中国做生意的主要困难和风险是什么?

知识产权被盗窃,以及中国政府利用扩大的反间谍法来恐吓商业社区,这使得在中国做生意变得十分困难和有风险。

中美关系目前面临的主要紧张点有哪些?

中国对台湾和南海地区越来越好战,去年的气球间谍事件,以及其他一系列问题都使中美关系变得更加紧张。

股本外流如何影响中国经济?

股本外流使中国失去了重要的外国投资,这对中国经济增长至关重要。如果增长率大幅下降,将很难维持其社会。

中国如何看待股本外流问题?

中国表面上还是希望吸引外资,但另一方面却在打击西方咨询公司,这让外国投资者感到困惑。

中国房地产泡沫是如何形成和破裂的?

多年来,中国银行容易批出贷款,推动房地产建设蓬勃发展,但2020年政府收紧融资,导致主要开发商违约,无法获得资金,最终泡沫破裂。

房地产泡沫破裂对普通中国人有何影响?

许多普通购房者可能永远无法收回首付的钱,他们面临巨大财富损失。

中国经济前景充满希望吗?

中国仍有很强的制造业基础和创新人才基础,不应低估中国企业家和科技人员的潜力。中国有望在电动汽车、机器人等高科技领域取得进一步突破。

中美激烈竞争的根源是什么?

两国体制和价值观念的差异。中美都想成为主导全球的强国。

与过去的冷战相比,当前的中美竞争有何不同?

与当时苏联相比,中国拥有更强大的经济实力,是一个更强大的竞争对手。

Outlines

00:00

😟 美国企业在中国的挑战

随着中美关系的紧张，以及中国的经济下滑、知识产权盗窃和扩大的间谍法案等问题，美国企业对于在中国的业务持谨慎态度。尽管中国市场具有巨大吸引力，但政府的矛盾信息和对美国企业的突击检查使得美国投资者对未来持观望态度。美国大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯在北京接受采访时讨论了这些挑战，并指出虽然有知识产权盗窃等问题，但还是有不少美国公司如沃尔玛、星巴克等在中国成功运营。

05:03

📉 中国经济放缓与国家控制加强

中国经济增长放缓，政府加强对数据和国家安全的控制，撤销了一些市场改革。这种变化导致了投资减少，同时也引发了对中国政府优先级的质疑。美国大使伯恩斯指出，尽管存在这些问题，但中国仍然是世界第二大经济体，对许多美国公司具有不可抵抗的市场吸引力。尽管如此，一些公司正将部分业务转移至其他国家，虽然他们没有完全离开中国市场。

10:06

🚨 美中关系的紧张与不确定性

美中之间的基本竞争和不信任加剧了商业界的不确定性，将双方关系推至半个世纪以来的最低点。大使伯恩斯提到，尽管美国与中国在多个领域存在竞争，但两国必须负责任地竞争并维持和平。他还强调了美中经济关系的复杂性，表明虽然存在竞争，但两国经济的紧密联系使得彻底切断关系不可行。

15:09

🏙️ 中国的房地产危机与经济挑战

中国房地产市场的崩溃导致了经济下滑，许多未完成的建筑项目被遗弃，造成了大量的“鬼城”。政府对开发商的严格贷款限制导致主要开发商违约，进一步加剧了经济衰退。此外，民众对于投资和消费的信心下降，进一步拖累了整体经济。

20:11

📈 中国经济的积极面与技术发展

尽管面临经济放缓和其他挑战，中国仍保持强大的制造业基础和创新能力。中国在某些技术领域如电动汽车和可再生能源领域取得领先，展示了其快速发展和创新的能力。同时，政府对电动汽车等高科技产业的重大投资显示了其转型和升级经济结构的决心。

25:11

🌏 美中全球竞争与未来展望

美国大使伯恩斯表达了对美中两国未来关系的担忧，特别是在军事和技术方面的竞争。他指出，两国之间存在根本的意识形态对立，这影响了全球经济和政治格局。尽管存在冲突，但他强调两国需要找到共存的方式，因为彼此经济和安全上的相互依赖不容忽视。

Keywords

💡中美关系

中美关系是视频的核心主题。 Burns大使提到中美关系目前面临着历史上最激烈的竞争,他称之为“世界上最重要、最有竞争力和最危险的关系”。视频讨论了中美关系的多种方面,包括经济、军事、科技等领域的竞争。

💡中国经济

视频分析了中国经济目前面临的困难,包括疫情后经济增长放缓、房地产泡沫破裂、外资流出等。但视频也提到中国仍有巨大的消费市场潜力,许多美国企业继续看好中国市场。

💡台湾问题

视频中Burns大使提到中国大陆最近在台湾附近的军事活动增加令人担忧。这加剧了中美之间的紧张关系。台湾问题是中美分歧的一个核心问题。

💡知识产权

美国企业长期以来一直担心在华业务遭受知识产权侵犯。视频提到这是美国企业准备在华投资时需要考虑的一个关键风险。

💡科技竞争

视频分析了中美在人工智能、生物技术、量子计算等高新科技领域展开激烈竞争。这关系到两国未来的经济实力和国防能力。

💡“脱钩”

鉴于中美关系越来越紧张,有观点认为两国经济应该“脱钩”。但视频中Burns大使不赞成,因为这会严重损害美国就业。

💡人口结构

中国面临着人口结构老龄化的严峻挑战。视频提到这是中国经济发展的长期不利因素之一。

💡消费市场

尽管面临经济放缓,但中国仍拥有全球最大的消费市场之一。许多美国企业仍然期待通过在华业务打开这个市场。

💡制造业实力

视频认为中国制造业仍然很强大,在许多领域具有成本优势和规模效应。这是中国经济实力的重要来源。

💡威权主义

在习近平主席领导下,中国政治体制日益强化党的控制,这让西方企业担心在华运营的不确定性。

Highlights

美国CEO过去对中国趋之若鹜,其巨大的消费者群体几十年来一直具有巨大的吸引力

但是在中国开展业务已经变得非常困难和冒险,知识产权被盗用

扩大的间谍法被用来吓唬商业界

Transcripts

American CEOs used to Swoon over China

its vast pool of consumers has been a

magnetic draw for decades but doing

business there has become so fraught and

risky with intellectual property theft

and an expanded Espionage law used to

intimidate the business community that

us companies have pressed the pause

button on top of that the US China

relationship has become contentious due

partly to beijing's belligerent activity

toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea

the balloon spy incident of last year

and the list goes on making matters

worse the Chinese economy has hit a wall

export growth is slowing the country's

drowning in debt and youth unemployment

has

soared getting into China to tell that

story is All But but impossible for most

western journalists but when the US

ambassador Nicholas Burns invited us to

come for a visit and an interview we

were granted visas we spoke with him at

his residence in

Beijing the story will continue in a

moment more money is leaving China for

the first time in 40 years then is

coming in from American Japanese

European Korean investors now why is

that and how much of a problem is that

for them that's a real problem for this

economy they have 1.4 billion people

here they've got to keep it growing and

foreign capital is important you ask why

I think there's been a contradiction in

the messaging from the government here

in China to the rest of the world on the

one hand they say we're open for

business we want American CH Japanese

businesses here but on the other hand

they've rated six or seven American

businesses since last March raid rated

they've gone into American companies and

shut them down and made accusations We

Believe are very much unwarranted the

American companies include banan company

and the mince group a company that does

due diligence for other companies that

might want to invest here was raid last

year five of its Chinese employees were

taken into

and they're still there another firm cap

Vision was raid L the message wasn't

loud and clear a report about it was put

on statun

television it accused Western consulting

firms of Espionage and stealing National

Security and Military Secrets they want

the investment to come back and they're

raiding American companies and their

they've passed an amendment to their

counter Espionage law and it's written

in such a general way that it could be

that American Business people could be

accused of Espionage for engaging in

practices that are perfectly legal and

acceptable everywhere else in the world

collecting data to do deal diligence so

that you can decide whether you want to

invest in a company or form a joint

venture right what do you think the

Chinese are afraid that these companies

are going to find out these due

diligence

companies what are they work you know I

think they want to control data about

the Chinese people about Chinese

companies and so U that I think is at

the heart of the problem with those

American companies operating in that

sphere Ambassador Burns told us that's

just one of the concerns he hears about

there is still intellectual property

theft from American companies here is

every American company afraid of that

yes all kinds of us companies began

flocking to China in the early 198 80s

after the country opened to the West

under then leader dong sha ping and now

US banks operate here Walmart has more

than 300 stores across the country

Shoppers here in Shanghai can buy Levis

browse in an Apple store and get a

caramel frappuccino Starbucks has 6,000

stores in China a th000 stores in

Shanghai and they want to keep building

because coffee this was a tea culture

for hundreds of years it's now becoming

at least with the young Chinese a coffee

culture and and they love Starbucks they

love Starbucks and I'll buy you a

cappuccino I'll take one thank you

Boeing's here so is Tesla fizer Chevron

Intel but while some businesses are

thriving many of the foreign companies

are worried about the business climate

under President Xi Jinping if you track

China from the death of ma to the

opening of China to the world we've seen

a closing of sorts we've seen a

centralization of power of the party

we've seen increased repression of the

people of China here that's a very

significant Trend just over the last

decade with she under his leadership

part of that Trend includes president

she's reversing many of the market

reforms that unleash China's economic

Miracle they've been growing over 40

years the fastest growth rate in

recorded economic history 8 n 10 11%

growth rates they've lifted 800 million

people out of poverty but what's

happening is that growth rate is slowing

down most economists are now projecting

they'll be at 2 three 4% growth maybe

even lower in the next they support

their society if it's that low that's

going to be difficult for them if there

was so much explosive growth if so many

people were lifted out of poverty why is

he turning away from what worked well I

think they've got maybe competing

priorities the government here in China

certainly wants the economy to grow but

they also have a national security

mindset they want to control data they

want that's more important the control

right than economic growth it seems that

way I think it's open for debate you're

hearing we are hearing both men messages

it sounds as if you yourself don't know

the direction it's going what I perceive

here is that the greater energy is with

those on the National Security side of

the government of China good morning how

are you on a train trip from Beijing to

Shanghai the Ambassador pointed out that

in the decades before President XI China

powered its economy by investing in

these high-speed

trains roads

factories and skyscrapers that light up

Shanghai the financial capital of China

but under President XI China lost more

than $120 billion worth of long-term

foreign investments last year because of

the weakening economy and the harsh

government tactics which have left

American companies uncertain of the

future there there are a lot of American

companies here have a lot of them just

picked up and let because of this

current business environment you know

that's interesting not many not many not

many why not China is the second largest

economy in the world it's a big market

so a few American companies have left

but most have stayed some American

companies are moving at least some of

their operations to Singapore Vietnam

Mexico but they're not leaving China the

market irresistible to American Business

bus people it's gigantic maybe they're

not leaving but they're not investing

they're not making major Investments

until they can see exactly where the

government is headed yet because of the

1.4 billion potential consumers some

companies like Disney are increasing

their investment welcome to Shanghai

Disney Resort it recently expanded its

Shanghai Disneyland that they told us is

thriving and aptar A9 billion company

headquartered in Crystal Lake Illinois

is another American firm bucking the

trend of capital flight president of

aptar Asia shangu gang a chinese-born US

citizen showed us around one of their

five manufacturing sites in China we are

manufacturing for some of the largest US

Brands actually the US consumer Brands

this factory makes the packaging and

dispensing devices for food

pharmaceutical and beauty products sold

in Asia all our customers like PNG laa

esela they're all here doing business

abtar in China for nearly 30 years

recently invested $60 million in a new

Factory shangu gang says even in a

slowing economy the company is doing

well American companies here as the

Ambassador well knows are pausing or

cutting back on investment but not this

firm you're expanding well um because we

are here for the long term and we

believe in the consumption Power Of The

Rising middle class it's 1.4 billion

people here and um imagine for for

example health care and the same with um

cosmetics and beauty and um beverage all

all those sectors packaged Foods these

are really the biggest market and so so

we are very confident about uh the long

term what does it say about the

confidence really in the US China

relationship it it seems to say you

believe that that things will what I'm

asking get

better that's a great question for the

Ambassador I believe so I hope so you

know we'll see actually burn says he's

wary of the future as the fundamental

rivalry and mistrust between the US in

China is shaking the confidence of the

business world and has pushed our

relationship to its lowest point in half

a century is it our most competitive

relationship in the world right now this

is the most important most competitive

and most dangerous relationship that the

United States has in the world right now

and will I think for the next decade or

so I want to quote you back to you and

tell us what you meant you have said

divorce is not an

option right our two countries have to

live together and this I think is the

greatest tension in the US China

relationship China's our most

significant competitor and at the same

time China is our third largest trade

partner 750,000 American jobs at stake

agriculture China's the largest market

for us agriculture oneth of all of our

export a products from agriculture are

sent to China that was $4.9 billion last

year so we can't afford really to have a

real break here well it's complicated

jobs would it's complicated some people

are saying well we're so competitive

with China we should end the economic

relationship well the consequence of

that would be 750,000 American families

wouldn't be able to put dinner on the

table and so this makes for an

extraordinarily difficult Balancing Act

in my job you're a Linda brother I've

never thought of myself that way but

you're up high wire right well we have

competing interests here and balancing

those interests is the reality in the US

China relationship we're going to

compete we have to compete responsibly

and keep the peace between our countries

but we also have to

engage more about The Balancing Act and

the biggest economic problem in China

today when we come

back

one and every five people in the world

is Chinese China's population is four

times that of the US and the country is

vast 3.7 million square miles it

overlooks the Taiwan straight where half

the World's Trade flows every day and is

located about 100 100 miles away from

Taiwan President XI likes to say that

the East is rising the West is declining

but economically the US is thriving

compared to China in December Moody the

credit rating agency cut its outlook for

China to negative and it's facing a

long-term demographic bind a decline in

the birth rate that experts say is

irreversible meaning the country is both

both aging and

shrinking Ambassador Nicholas Burns took

us on a tour starting in

Beijing the story will continue in a

moment the Ambassador and his wife Libby

like to take early morning walks through

a park near their

[Music]

residence this is a 600-year old Ming

Dynasty Park called Ron Park it's a

place for a lot of retirees and a lot of

young people and it's tremendously

active it's where the locals come for

their early morning

routines like Tai Chi

yo-yoing and

pingpong oops

[Laughter]

T you couldn't tell from these scenes

whoa that China where the covid pandemic

began is still emerging from the trauma

of President XI jinping's oppressive

zeroo

policy Burns 68 a career Diplomat who

has served in both Republican and

Democratic administrations got to China

at the height of the zero covid

lockdowns and quarantines when my wife

Libby and I arrived here in early March

of 2022 we were quarantine in this house

for 21 days for 3 weeks Shanghai a city

of 26 million people was completely

locked down for 63 days what was that

like in the city we had women who needed

to give birth and we had to find a way

to get them to the hospital we had

Americans who wanted to get out but had

to find a way out of their locked

compounds to the airport so zero Co

worked for a while in 20 and 21 they had

very low or Rel relatively lower

infection rates but by 2022 it had

really divided this Society it set off

rare widespread protests then in

December of 2022 president XI ended the

policy abruptly the last thing this

government is going to accept here is

volatility volatility is something yorg

woodka a German businessman who's lived

and worked in China for over 30 years

hadn't seen since the tianan square

Square Uprising in

1989 he represents

BASF the world's largest chemical

producer you have said this is a PTSD

country post-traumatic stress disorder

country what what do you mean well

everybody has been traumatized by the

lockdowns that took place in many cities

across China and the kind of messaging

that came out of the leadership it's for

your own safety and then the lockdown

was lifted actually it was more a

capitulation from the government the

lockdown basically left and like aam we

were wrong we're going to lift it they

never said they were wrong that's not

the system this admit that they did

something wrong and then you basically

like a tsunami Co was rolling across the

country after they lifted it uh December

January I would say a billion people

were infected and certainly lots of

people died independent analysts say

that an estimated 1.4 million people

died this kind of environment really

Chang changes your attitude towards life

and in business we thought we're going

to have a comeback story and we had a

good couple of weeks and then the

economy basically has been fled since

you know after covid in the west in the

United States particularly we did have a

huge quick rebound Why didn't it happen

here well I think that Co also has

covered up a couple of long-term

problems that China has been building up

for example in the real estate sector we

reported on the real estate sector 10

years ago with astonishing sites like

this of empty buildings in city after

city across the

country this is today similar hollowed

out wastelands of unoccupied and

unfinished Apartments known as ghost

cities when I was here 10 years ago I

never expected to see these building

still here but was a housing bubble back

then grew and finally

exploded this real estate crisis lies at

the heart of China's economic decline

has anybody counted up the number of

empty units I mean across the whole

country well the whole of Germany we

have 82 million people could move in

here right away 80 80 to 90 million

apartments are empty 80 to 90 million

apartments are empty right unfinished

over the years Chinese Banks readily

loan money to the developers as the

building boom created millions of jobs

and propelled China's growth but in 2020

the government under President XI

clamped down on the rampant borrowing

causing the major developers to default

on their loans and run out of money look

at that the facade isn't even finished

he says they couldn't even afford to

take down the

cranes in January ever Grand once

China's largest developer was ordered to

liquidate its remaining

assets left in the Lurch are millions of

Chinese citizens who bought these

apartments before they were built the

developers owe their uh customers that

paid up uh to the magnitude of1 trillion

us so if I did a down payment on one of

these apartments right will I ever see

that money no you will not see the money

it's gone it's finished is finished so I

mean it's it's really dramatic 10 years

ago we were told that this was the way

people put money down for their nest EG

right for their retirement fund is that

still the case the 66% 23 of a Family

household average wealth is in in

apartments that loss of wealth has

depressed consumer spending and drag

down the economy we wondered if the

people blame president XI for that or

for the covid deaths but it was

impossible for us to gauge public

opinion or if it even matters while no

one from the government would give us an

interview we were able to learn as yorg

woodka who's lived here for 30 years

told us it's not a good idea to bet

against the Chinese people what are some

of the positive aspects of the economy

here they do have a strong uh

manufacturing base still well the big

part is really between the ears of

people the brains of the Chinese

entrepreneurs that actually made this

success story happen China is not really

good in basic research but they're

fantastic in development they're world

champion in actually making products

better faster and cheaper are they

better yes they are in some areas our

Chinese competitors are breathing down

our neck and basically Drive some of us

out the market for instance China now

makes over 80% of all the solar panels

in the world dominates the winter

turbine Market is poised to overtake

Japan as the world's biggest exporter of

cars and more they're the leading trade

partner of twice as many countries in

the world as the United States so they

have leading trade partner with over 60

countries in the world and now with

heavy government subsidies it is fast

becoming the leader in electric vehicles

last quarter the car maker byd surpassed

Tesla as the bestselling EV maker in the

world Shanghai based Neo is trying to

break through with high-tech

Innovations in December the company

unveiled a new battery with a driving

range of 620 miles more than 200 M

further than Tesla's topend model this

is this is our Flagship William Lee the

CEO and founder of Neo says its battery

swap technology

allows owners to swap out their depleted

battery for a fully charged one in under

3 minutes exactly it's a uh two and a

half minutes two and a half minut and a

half yes we already installed

2,200 swap station around

China China is also developing a

humanoid robot

industry look at that after lot of year

it's true Alex goo is the founder and

CEO of forier intelligence hi there last

year he launched the gr1 his first

generation

humanoid we can do arm you can swing the

arm yeah you see oh look at the fingers

oh my

word can you play the piano yeah future

definitely in the future also in the

future he says the robots could provide

health care for China's rapidly aging

population maybe we can for example we

can remote control such kind of robots

to help my grandpa for example yeah I

think president XI who visited this

company last year has called for the

mass production of humanoids by

2025 in his annual New Year's speech he

talked about the country's economic woes

and for the first time acknowledged the

high unemployment rate still he has laid

out a long-term goal of doubling China's

economy by

2035 and surpassing the West in

technology our companies and Tech

experts are competing on AI and biotech

and Quantum mathematics all those

technological advances will lead to a

new generation of military technology

our two militaries are vying for

military Supremacy who's going to be the

most powerful in the most important

strategic part of the world which is the

Indo

Pacific presidents Biden and she met in

San Francisco in November in hopes of

reestablishing military Communications

between our two countries which China

had cut off I think we're back to a more

settled and stable relationship between

the two countries but it's been a roller

coaster the low point he says was the

Spy balloon incident last year but

there's also been the buildup of

military bases in the South China Sea

the increase of air sorties near Taiwan

and the buzzing of US military planes do

you see a lowering of the temperature in

the South China Sea no and that's a

problem you don't and then on Taiwan

following speaker Pelosi's visit we've

seen now for 16 months a much higher

rate of Chinese both air activity and

Naval activity that's very intimidating

meant to intimidate that hasn't the taiw

they haven't pulled back on that and I

think ultimately they want to become and

overtake the United States as the

dominant country globally and we don't

want that to happen we don't want to

live in a world where the Chinese are

the dominant country when the Cold War

ended we all thought our system had won

yeah you know their system failed our

system rose up now he's come back and

said no no the Communist system is the

right way I guess we didn't bury that

after all you know it's it's interesting

to compare the old cold war with this

time what distinguishes this time versus

the old Cold War Soviet Union had a

strong military and nuclear weapons it

had a very weak economy which in no way

competed with ours China's economy is

very strong we're dealing with an

adversary a competitor in China stronger

than the Soviet Union was in the 1940s

50s 60s 7s and ' 80s so if that was a

Cold War what are you calling this it's

a competition of ideas a battle of ideas

our idea America's big idea of a

Democratic Society and human Freedom

versus China's idea that a communist

state is stronger than a democracy we

don't believe that

so there's a battle here as to whose

ideas should lead the world and we

believe those are American

ideas up and get married Leslie stall on

witnessing China change while reporting

for 60 minutes this was different from

the other times I've been there

reporting at 60 minutes overtime.com