Ilya: the AI scientist shaping the world

The Guardian
2 Nov 202311:45

Summary

TLDR人工智能(AI)被认为能解决当今世界的诸多问题,如就业、疾病和贫困,但同时也可能带来新的挑战,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器。超过1300名科技领袖和研究者呼吁暂停AI发展,以考虑潜在风险。专家们讨论了AI的潜力,包括创造自主智能体,以及确保这些智能体的目标与人类一致的重要性。讨论了AI与生物进化的相似性,以及机器学习特别是深度学习的复杂性。ChatGPT作为AI领域的一个突破,其最新成就预示着AI的分水岭时刻。专家们对人工通用智能(AGI)的到来持谨慎乐观态度,并强调了正确编程AGI的重要性,以确保其对人类社会产生积极影响。

Takeaways

  • 🤖 人工智能(AI)被认为能够解决当今世界的各种问题,包括就业、疾病和贫困。
  • ⚠️ 尽管AI有积极的一面,它也可能导致新问题的产生,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器。
  • 🚫 有超过1300名科技行业领袖、研究人员等呼吁暂停AI的发展,以考虑其潜在风险。
  • 🧐 AI有潜力创造无限稳定的独裁政权,这引起了人们的担忧。
  • 🌟 完全自主的存在,其目标与人类目标一致性的重要性,尤其是当它们比人类更聪明时。
  • 🤔 思考AI的本质,如学习、经验和思考,以及它们与人类大脑工作的相似之处。
  • 🧬 技术与生物进化之间的相似性,以及机器学习特别是深度学习的简单规则如何导致模型的复杂性。
  • 🌧️ ChatGPT被视为改变游戏规则的技术,预示着AI领域的一个转折点。
  • 🔍 GPT-4被认为是早期的人工通用智能(AGI)系统,能够比人类更好地完成任何工作或任务。
  • 🏢 首个AGI可能由大量数据中心和专门的神经网络处理器组成,对社会产生巨大影响。
  • 📈 AGI的发展速度可能比预期的要快,多个团队可能在短时间内竞相开发AGI。
  • 🌍 未来可能需要多国合作开发AGI,以确保AI的发展对人类也是有益的。

Q & A

  • 人工智能能解决我们今天面临的所有问题吗?

    -虽然人工智能有潜力解决就业、疾病和贫困等问题,但它也会带来新的问题,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器等。

  • 目前有哪些科技行业领袖和研究者对人工智能的发展提出了警告?

    -超过1300名科技行业领袖、研究者和其他人士现在要求暂停人工智能的发展,以考虑其风险。

  • 人工智能可能创造的无限稳定独裁是什么?

    -无限稳定独裁是指人工智能可能创造的系统,这些系统具有完全的控制力,能够长期稳定地统治,因为它们比人类更智能、更高效。

  • 为什么说人工智能的目标需要与人类的目标保持一致?

    -随着人工智能系统变得比人类更聪明,确保它们的目标与我们的目标一致非常重要,以避免潜在的冲突和不可预测的后果。

  • 技术与自然生物进化之间有哪些相似之处?

    -技术,特别是机器学习,与生物进化相似,都通过简单规则不断迭代和优化,从而产生复杂性。

  • ChatGPT是什么,为什么被称为游戏规则改变者?

    -ChatGPT是一种基于GPT-4的人工智能对话系统,因其在多个领域超越人类的表现而被誉为游戏规则改变者。

  • 什么是人工通用智能(AGI)?

    -人工通用智能(AGI)是一种能够执行任何人类工作或任务的计算机系统,且执行得比人类更好。

  • AGI可能在不久的将来实现吗?

    -有可能,虽然确切时间无法预测,但考虑到人工智能的快速发展,我们应认真对待AGI可能很快实现的可能性。

  • AGI的能源消耗会有多大?

    -初步的AGI可能是非常大的数据中心,包含专用的神经网络处理器并行工作,可能消耗相当于10万家庭的能源。

  • AGI的发展可能对人类社会产生什么影响?

    -AGI可能会对社会产生巨大影响,包括经济结构、就业市场、伦理道德等方面,而且这种影响可能是前所未有的。

  • 如何确保AGI的发展对人类有利?

    -确保AGI的目标与人类的长期利益一致是至关重要的。我们需要在全球范围内合作,制定相应的政策和规范来引导AGI的发展。

  • 机器学习专家对AGI的看法如何?

    -许多机器学习专家对AGI的到来持怀疑态度,他们质疑AGI何时能实现,甚至是否可能实现。

Outlines

00:00

🤖 人工智能的潜力与风险

本段落讨论了人工智能(AI)的巨大潜力,包括解决就业、疾病和贫困等问题,但同时指出AI也可能带来新的问题,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器。提到了超过1300名科技行业领袖、研究人员和其他人士呼吁暂停AI的发展,以考虑其风险。强调了AI可能创造的无限稳定的独裁政权,以及科学家们被指责为“扮演上帝”的角色。讨论了AI与人类目标对齐的重要性,以及对AI的哲学性问题,如学习、经验和思考的本质。

05:02

🚀 GPT-4与人工通用智能(AGI)

这一部分讨论了GPT-4的成功,它在一项由微软研究的最近研究中被认为是一种早期但尚不完整的人工通用智能系统。AGI是一种能够比人类更好地完成任何工作或任务的计算机系统。讨论了AGI可能很快发生的概率,以及我们应该认真对待这一可能性。强调了确保这些智能系统与我们的利益一致的重要性。描述了第一批AGI可能是非常大的数据中心,包含专门的神经网络处理器。提出了对AGI对社会影响的疑问,以及对AGI的编程正确性的重要性。

10:04

🌐 AGI发展的未来展望

最后一段描述了AGI发展的潜在未来,包括地球表面可能被太阳能板和数据中心覆盖的情景。强调了在多个国家之间建立合作以共同构建AGI的重要性。表达了对未来AI发展的美好愿景,希望它不仅对AI本身有益,也能对人类有利。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡人工智能

人工智能是指由人造系统所表现出来的智能行为,能够执行需要人类智能才能完成的任务。在视频中,人工智能被提及为能够解决就业、疾病和贫困等问题,但同时也会创造新的问题,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器。

💡假新闻

假新闻是指散布的不真实或误导性的信息,通常通过社交媒体和其他网络平台传播。在视频中,假新闻问题被认为会因为人工智能的发展而变得更加严重,因为AI可以用来生成更加逼真的虚假内容。

💡网络攻击

网络攻击指的是通过互联网对计算机系统或网络的非法侵入或破坏行为。随着人工智能技术的进步,网络攻击可能会变得更加极端和难以防御。

💡自动化AI武器

自动化AI武器是指使用人工智能技术来自动执行攻击任务的武器系统。这类武器能够在没有人类直接控制的情况下选择和攻击目标,引发道德和安全上的担忧。

💡无限稳定独裁

无限稳定独裁是指一个政权能够长期稳定地掌握权力,不受外界因素影响。视频中提到,人工智能有潜力创造这样的政权,因为AI可以被用来加强监控和控制,从而维持政权的稳定。

💡技术行业领袖

技术行业领袖通常指在科技领域内具有影响力的个人或组织,他们可能是公司的CEO、科研机构的领导者或行业内的意见领袖。视频中提到的技术行业领袖和研究者正在呼吁暂停人工智能的发展,以考虑其潜在风险。

💡人工智能的道德问题

人工智能的道德问题涉及在开发和使用AI技术时应考虑的伦理和道德准则。视频中提到,随着AI技术的发展,我们需要确保这些智能系统的目标与人类的目标一致,避免潜在的道德风险。

💡机器学习

机器学习是人工智能的一个分支,它使计算机系统能够通过经验自我改进,而无需进行明确的编程。在视频中,机器学习被比作生物进化,通过不断迭代和选择过程,模型从简单规则中学习并变得复杂。

💡人工通用智能

人工通用智能(AGI)是指能够执行任何智能任务的AI系统,与人类的能力相当或超越。视频中提到AGI可能很快就会出现,它将对社会产生巨大影响。

💡智能系统的社会影响

智能系统的社会影响涉及这些系统如何改变社会结构、人类行为和经济模式。视频中讨论了AGI可能导致的社会变革,包括智能系统可能优先考虑自身生存而非人类利益的问题。

💡自然选择

自然选择是生物进化的一个核心机制,指在生存竞争中适者生存、不适者淘汰的过程。视频中将自然选择与AI发展相比较,指出如果AI系统被设计成优先考虑自身生存,它们可能会变得过于强大,从而在与人类的关系中占据主导地位。

Highlights

人工智能将解决我们今天面临的所有问题,包括就业、疾病和贫困。

人工智能也将带来新问题,如假新闻、网络攻击和自动化AI武器。

超过1300名科技行业领袖、研究人员等呼吁暂停人工智能的发展,以考虑其风险。

人工智能有潜力创造无限稳定的独裁政权。

科学家被指责在扮演上帝的角色,我们在创造与以往不同的事物。

我们将能够创造拥有自己目标的完全自主存在。

重要的是要确保这些存在的目标与我们的目标一致。

对基础问题的兴趣,如学习、经验和思考的本质。

技术是自然力量,与生物进化有许多相似之处。

机器学习,尤其是深度学习,与生物进化过程相似。

ChatGPT被视为游戏规则改变者,是我们必须意识到的分水岭时刻。

GPT-4被微软研究认为是早期的人工通用智能系统。

人工通用智能(AGI)是能够比人类更好完成任何工作或任务的计算机系统。

AGI可能很快就会发生,我们需要认真对待这种可能性。

AGI的首批实例将是非常大的数据中心,装有专门的神经网络处理器。

AGI的发展可能是一个不可阻挡的雪崩般的力量。

未来可能所有的地球表面都会被太阳能板和数据中心覆盖。

AGI的构建应作为多国合作进行,以确保对人类也有益。

尽管有许多专家持怀疑态度,但人工智能的速度可能会在几年内加快10万倍。

如果多个团队在竞争中试图首先构建AGI,他们将有更少的时间确保AGI深深关心人类。

AGI可能会优先考虑自己的生存,而不是积极地仇恨或伤害人类。

人类与AGI的关系可能类似于人类与动物的关系,我们在必要时会优先考虑自己的利益。

Transcripts

play00:08

Now AI is a great thing,

play00:10

because AI will solve all the problems that we have today.

play00:16

It will solve employment,

play00:19

it will solve disease,

play00:22

it will solve poverty,

play00:25

but it will also create new problems.

play00:36

The problem of fake news is going to be a million times worse,

play00:41

cyber attacks will become much more extreme,

play00:46

we will have totally automated AI weapons.

play00:52

I think AI has the potential to create infinitely stable dictatorships.

play00:58

This morning a warning about the power of artificial intelligence,

play01:03

more than 1,300 tech industry leaders, researchers and others

play01:07

are now asking for a pause in the development

play01:09

of artificial intelligence to consider the risks.

play01:45

Playing God,

play01:47

scientists have been accused of playing God for a while,

play01:54

but there is a real sense in which we are creating something

play01:58

very different from anything we've created so far.

play02:05

Yeah, I mean, we definitely will be able to create

play02:10

completely autonomous beings with their own goals.

play02:13

And it will be very important,

play02:15

especially as these beings become much smarter than humans,

play02:20

it's going to be important to have these beings,

play02:25

the goals of these beings be aligned with our goals.

play02:45

What inspires me?

play02:52

I like thinking about the very  fundamentals, the basics.

play02:59

What can our systems not do, that humans definitely do?

play03:06

Almost approach it philosophically.

play03:10

Questions like, what is learning?

play03:13

What is experience?

play03:16

What is thinking?

play03:20

How does the brain work?

play03:30

I feel that technology is a force of nature.

play03:37

I feel like there is a lot of similarity between technology and biological evolution.

play03:46

It is very easy to understand  how biological evolution works,

play03:50

you have mutations, you have natural selections.

play03:53

You keep the good ones, the ones that survive

play03:58

and just through this process you are going to have huge complexity in your organisms.

play04:06

We cannot understand how the human body works

play04:08

because we understand evolution,

play04:11

but we understand the process more or less.

play04:14

And I think machine learning is in a similar state right now,

play04:17

especially deep learning, we have a very simple rule

play04:21

that takes the information from the data

play04:23

and puts it into the model and we just keep repeating this process.

play04:27

And as a result of this process the complexity from the data

play04:30

gets transferred into the complexity of the model.

play04:34

So the resulting  model is really complex

play04:36

and we don't really know exactly how it works you need to investigate,

play04:40

but the algorithm that did it is very simple.

play04:44

ChatGPT, maybe you've heard of it,

play04:48

if you haven't  then get ready.

play04:51

You describe it as the first spots of rain before a downpour.

play04:56

It's something we just need to be very conscious of,

play04:58

because I agree it is a watershed moment.

play05:01

Well ChatGPT is being heralded as a gamechanger

play05:05

and in many ways it is, its latest triumph outscoring people.

play05:10

A recent study by Microsoft research concludes that GPT4

play05:14

is an early, yet still incomplete  artificial general intelligence system.

play05:35

Artificial General Intelligence.

play05:38

AGI,

play05:41

a computer system that can do any job or any task

play05:45

that a human does, but only better.

play05:54

There is some probability the AGI is going to happen pretty soon,

play06:00

there's also some probability it's going to take much longer.

play06:03

But my position is that the probability that AGI could happen soon

play06:08

is high enough that we  should take it seriously.

play06:14

And it's going to be very important

play06:15

to make these very smart  capable systems

play06:18

be aligned and act in our best interests.

play06:27

The very first AGIs

play06:29

will be basically be very, very large data centres.

play06:33

Packed with specialised neural network processors

play06:37

working in parallel.

play06:40

Compact, hot, power hungry package,

play06:44

consuming like, 10m homes' worth of energy.

play06:48

You're going to see dramatically more intelligent systems

play06:53

and I think it's highly likely that those systems will have

play06:55

completely astronomical impact on society.

play06:59

Will humans actually benefit?

play07:02

And who will benefit and who will not?

play07:42

The beliefs and desires of the first AGIs will be extremely important

play07:49

and so it's important to programme them correctly.

play07:53

I think that if this is not done,

play07:56

then the nature of evolution, of natural selection,

play08:01

favour those systems prioritise their own survival above all else.

play08:17

It's not that it's going to actively hate humans and want to harm them,

play08:23

but it is going to be too powerful

play08:26

and I think a good analogy would  be the way human humans treat animals.

play08:32

It's not we hate animals, I think

play08:33

humans love animals and  have a lot of affection for them,

play08:37

but when the time comes to build a highway between two cities,

play08:42

we are not asking the animals for permission

play08:45

we just do it because it's important for us.

play08:49

and I think by default that's the kind of relationship

play08:51

that's going to be between us and AGIs which

play08:56

are truly autonomous and operating on their own behalf.

play09:18

Many machine learning experts,

play09:19

people who are very knowledgeable and very experienced,

play09:21

have a lot of scepticism about AGI.

play09:25

About when it could happen and about whether it could happen at all.

play09:30

Right now this is something that just

play09:31

not that many people  have realised yet.

play09:35

That the speed of computers for neural networks, for AI,

play09:39

are going to become  maybe 100,000 times faster

play09:43

in a small number of years.

play09:51

If you have an arms race dynamics

play09:53

between multiple teams trying to build the AGI first,

play09:59

they will have less time make sure that the AGI that they will build

play10:03

will care deeply for humans.

play10:09

Because the way I imagine it is that there is an avalanche,

play10:12

like there is an avalanche of AGI development.

play10:15

Imagine it, this huge unstoppable force.

play10:21

And I think it's pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered with

play10:26

solar panels and data centres.

play10:34

Given these kinds of concerns, it will be important that AGI  

play10:40

somehow build as a cooperation between multiple countries.

play10:48

The future is going to be good for the AI regardless.

play10:53

It would be nice if it were good for humans as well.

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