Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

Summary

The speaker discusses historical population growth, highlighting a shift from high child mortality rates to increased survival due to advancements like industrial soap, piped water, and medical interventions. They explain the 'population explosion' as a natural response to children surviving, not an exponential growth, and predict a continued increase to 11 billion people. The speaker advocates for access to contraceptives and education, rather than forced family planning, emphasizing the importance of voluntary, informed choices for sustainable population control.

Takeaways

• 🌱 Historically, the average number of children per couple was six, but due to high child mortality rates, the population did not grow exponentially until the advent of modern medicine and sanitation.
• 🌟 It took 5,000 years for the human population to reach 1 billion, highlighting the slow growth before the Industrial Revolution.
• 🚿 The Industrial Revolution brought significant changes like industrially produced soap, piped water, and medical advancements, which drastically reduced child mortality and led to population growth.
• 🌱 The population growth was not exponential after 1960; it has been linear, indicating a falling growth rate each year.
• 🌐 The current global population is expected to reach 11 billion not because of an increase in the number of children born, but due to the aging population and increased life expectancy.
• 🔄 The balance between population and nature has shifted from one controlled by death rates to one controlled by family planning and the ability to separate sexuality from reproduction.
• 📊 The population structure, or 'population pyramid,' shows a base of children that will not increase in number, but the total population will grow as these children age.
• 🌱 Africa is expected to have the most significant population growth due to higher birth rates, while Asia's growth is slowing as birth rates decrease.
• 🌐 The movement of the global population towards Africa is a concern as it correlates with regions of poverty where birth rates tend to be higher.
• 🌱 Family planning and access to contraceptives are key to managing population growth, but they must be provided voluntarily, not forced, to be effective.

Q & A

What was the average number of children per family before the Industrial Revolution?

Before the Industrial Revolution, on average, two parents had six children.

Why did the population not grow significantly in the past despite having large families?

In the past, despite having large families, the population did not grow significantly due to high and tragic death rates among children and young people.

How long did it take for the human population to grow from 10 million to 1 billion after the start of agriculture?

It took 5,000 years for the human population to grow from 10 million to 1 billion after the start of agriculture.

What were the key factors that caused the population growth after the Industrial Revolution?

The key factors that caused the population growth after the Industrial Revolution were the availability of industrially produced soap, piped water, and medical advancements, which led to a decrease in child mortality.

What is the term used to describe the rapid increase in population after the Industrial Revolution, and what has been the actual growth pattern since 1960?

The term often used is 'exponential growth,' but since 1960, the growth has been linear, meaning the rate of increase has not been accelerating.

Why did people not apply Family Planning until their children started surviving?

People did not apply Family Planning until they saw their children surviving because the death rate had to fall before the birth rate would decrease.

How does the speaker explain the inevitable growth to 11 billion people despite stabilizing birth rates?

The speaker explains that even with stabilizing birth rates, the population will grow to 11 billion due to the aging of the current population and the natural process of people moving through age groups without an increase in the number of children or life expectancy.

What is the current global life expectancy, and how does it affect the population growth?

The current global life expectancy is 71 years, which contributes to population growth as people live longer and the number of children per family remains stable.

Why does the speaker argue against forcing family planning measures on people?

The speaker argues against forcing family planning measures because it can backfire and is not ethically acceptable. Instead, he suggests providing access to contraceptives and improving living conditions as a way to encourage voluntary family planning.

How does the speaker describe the shift in population growth from Asia to Africa?

The speaker describes the shift in population growth from Asia to Africa by explaining that while the number of children in Asia has stopped increasing, in Africa it continues to grow, leading to a net increase in the global population as children conceptually move from regions with lower birth rates to those with higher birth rates.

Outlines

00:00

🌱 Historical Population Growth and the Role of Industrialization

This paragraph discusses the historical average of six children per couple and the slow population growth from 10 million to 1 billion over 5,000 years. It highlights the high child mortality rates that historically balanced human numbers with nature, which was neither desirable nor sustainable. The Industrial Revolution marked a turning point with the advent of mass-produced soap, piped water, and medical advancements, which dramatically reduced child mortality and led to a population boom. The speaker refutes the notion of 'exponential growth' since the 1960s, asserting that the growth has been linear, with a consistent addition of 1 billion people every 14 years, indicating a falling growth rate. The paragraph concludes by addressing the 'population explosion' myth and the inevitable growth to 11 billion people due to the current balance of birth and death rates.

05:01

📊 Demographic Transition and the Inevitability of Population Growth

The speaker uses a demographic approach to explain the inevitable growth of the world's population to over 10 billion, despite stabilizing birth rates. They illustrate this with a 'population pyramid' made of blocks representing different age groups, showing that even with a constant number of children and a stable life expectancy, the population will grow as people age into higher age brackets. The paragraph addresses the misconception that environmental problems require a halt to population growth below 10 billion and humorously dismisses the idea of forced population control measures. The speaker advocates for respecting human rights and providing access to contraceptives without coercion, emphasizing that population growth is a natural process influenced by factors such as health, education, and economic stability.

10:02

🌍 Global Population Dynamics and the Shift Towards Africa

This paragraph delves into the regional dynamics of global population growth, focusing on the differences between continents. It points out that while the number of children is not increasing globally, the adult population is growing due to people living longer. The speaker uses a detailed demographic model to show that as older populations die, they are replaced by children from regions with higher birth rates, particularly Africa. The paragraph discusses the cultural and economic factors influencing birth rates, such as the need for children's labor and the pride associated with large families. It also touches on the importance of education and family planning in reducing birth rates and the potential for longer life expectancies to slightly increase the global population.

15:03

🌱 The Future of Population Growth and the Importance of Support for Children

The final paragraph addresses the future trajectory of population growth, emphasizing the role of Africa as the continent with the most significant projected increase. It discusses the movement of the 'child population' from Asia to Africa due to differing birth rates and the implications of this shift for global poverty and development. The speaker argues for the importance of supporting children, particularly in Africa, to improve their chances of survival and to promote sustainable population growth. The paragraph concludes with a call to action for supporting UNICEF and other initiatives that provide resources and education to children in need, as a means to address both immediate and long-term global challenges.

Keywords

💡Population Growth

Population growth refers to the increase in the number of individuals in a population over a specific period. In the video, it is discussed in the historical context of how the human population has grown from 10 million to over 7 billion, with a focus on the impact of the Industrial Revolution and advancements in medicine and sanitation, which reduced child mortality and led to population booms. The script also addresses the misconception of exponential growth in recent decades, clarifying that the growth has been linear.

💡Ecological Balance

Ecological balance refers to the state where the numbers and proportions of different species in an ecosystem remain relatively stable. The video challenges the myth of humans living in ecological balance with nature, arguing that high child mortality rates historically kept the population in check rather than a harmonious balance. The script suggests that the true ecological balance is an undesirable state marked by the death of children and young people.

💡Industrial Revolution

The Industrial Revolution is a period during the 18th and 19th centuries where agrarian societies became industrial and urban. The video highlights how the Industrial Revolution led to significant changes in public health, such as the production of soap and piped water, which drastically reduced child mortality rates and consequently fueled population growth.

💡Child Mortality

Child mortality is the death of children before they reach adulthood. The script discusses how high child mortality rates historically kept the population in check. The video emphasizes that the reduction in child mortality rates, due to medical advancements and improved living conditions, is a key factor in the observed population growth.

💡Family Planning

Family planning encompasses the methods and decisions by which families determine the number and spacing of their children. The video explains that family planning became a viable option only after parents could expect their children to survive to adulthood. It also touches on the cultural and religious barriers to family planning and the importance of education and access to contraceptives.

💡Exponential Growth

Exponential growth is a pattern of growth where the value of a variable increases by a steady percentage rate over time. The video script clarifies that despite popular misconceptions, the world's population growth has not been exponential since the 1960s; instead, it has been linear, indicating a falling growth rate.

💡Demography

Demography is the statistical study of populations, including their size, structure, and distribution, and the changes that occur due to births, deaths, and migration. The video uses demographic principles to explain the shifts in population growth and the factors influencing these changes, such as fertility rates and life expectancy.

💡Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected to live, based on the year of its birth. The script discusses how increased life expectancy, due to improved living conditions and healthcare, contributes to the growth of the elderly population and the overall population size.

💡Contraceptives

Contraceptives are methods or devices used to prevent pregnancy. The video emphasizes the importance of access to contraceptives in managing population growth, particularly in regions where child mortality is high and families have larger numbers of children.

💡Patriarchal Thinking

Patriarchal thinking refers to a societal structure where men hold primary power and are dominant in roles of leadership. The video critiques patriarchal attitudes that value the number of offspring over the well-being and education of children, suggesting that a shift in this mindset is necessary for sustainable family planning.

💡UNICEF

UNICEF, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, is a United Nations program that provides humanitarian and developmental assistance to children and mothers in developing countries. The video advocates for support of UNICEF as part of a broader solution to global population and child welfare issues.

Highlights

In the past, the average couple had six children, but due to high child mortality rates, the population did not grow exponentially.

It took 5,000 years for the human population to grow from 10 million to 1 billion after the advent of agriculture.

The myth of humans living in ecological balance with nature is debunked, as high child mortality rates historically maintained this balance.

The Industrial Revolution led to a decrease in child mortality rates, which in turn caused a population growth.

The transition from four children dying to only two dying per family resulted in a population doubling every 25 years.

The term 'population explosion' is critiqued as the growth rate has been linear since 1960, not exponential.

Family planning was not widely adopted until parents saw their children surviving, which was a result of improved living conditions.

The current population growth is driven by the natural aging process and replacement of older generations, rather than an increase in birth rates.

The presenter argues that the population will inevitably reach 11 billion due to the current demographic trends.

The ability to separate sexuality from reproduction through contraception has played a significant role in population control.

Religious leaders are urged to understand the importance of family planning and the benefits of separating sexuality from reproduction.

The presenter uses a population pyramid to illustrate the current demographic composition and the inevitable growth to 11 billion.

The presenter explains that the number of children in the world is not increasing, but the number of adults is due to longer life expectancy.

The demographic shift from Asia to Africa is highlighted, with Africa's population expected to grow significantly.

The presenter emphasizes the importance of providing access to contraceptives without forcing people, as coercion can backfire.

The presenter suggests that the solution to population growth lies in respecting people's choices and providing them with the necessary tools and education.

The presenter concludes by stating that the world's population will continue to grow due to natural demographic processes, not because of a lack of family planning.

Transcripts

so an overview would be like this in the

past the two parents on average got six

children the reason the population was

not growing here from the year 2000 from

the year you know when we started

agriculture way back then 5,000 years

ago it took 5,000 years to go from 10

million to 1 billion this is 1 billion

here it is because one two three four

died sadly before grow going up to have

children themselves the past was

ugly human beings have never ever lived

in ecological balance with nature that's

a myth people have been dying in

ecological balance with nature it's due

to high and tragic death rates of

children and young people that there's

been a balance between human and nature

and that's ugly and people hated it and

they wanted their children to survive

and after the Industrial Revolution we

got soap industrially produced soap we

got piped water and we got some medical

actions you know and instead of four

dying four survived and two died and

that caused the growth of the population

you see two parents four children

doubling in one generation 25 years 1

billion to two billions 25 years more 2

billion to 4

billion and there we went to 7 billion

people and this is what many say oh

population explosion W wahah yeah but it

was

inevitable we didn't want kids to

continue to die and people would not

apply Family Planning until they saw

their kids

surviving all the death rate has to fall

before the birth rate is falling and and

and then many call this exponential

growth have you heard the toone

exponential growth this is exponential f

fter and faster since 1960 we have had

no exponential growth whatsoever we've

had an absolutely linear

growth and for you those of you doing

math you know that linear growth means

that the interest rate is falling every

year we added 1 billion in 14 years 1

billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14

years that means the adding of billions

did not become faster and

faster but there's so much crap written

and said about population growth so they

has put in these xes explosion

exponentially you argue for things based

on scare trying to scare people instead

of making them understand here now we

have a situation where we will add

another 4 billion in spite of already

having reached the New

Balance this is strange why will we add

four billions when the number of

children have stopped

increasing

it's

strange this

one the balance was controlled by death

it was ugly and unacceptable people

would never accept that they tried their

best this balance is controlled by

Love by being able to disentangle

sexuality and reproduction and some

religious leaders haven't got it

yet we try to make it very simple to

understand that this is a good thing

it's a good thing that you can separate

those two and

and and why will it be 11 billions well

I have some more improved educational

material from Gap minder here I brought

these blocks

here imagine that this is 1 billion

people you can see here one billion

people and these ones are children below

15 here's the age

see they are below 15 these are the

children they're two billion in the

world next age group 15 to 30 they are

also almost two billions I'm going to

simplify not falsify but simplify really

it's actually 1.8 or something here but

I say two billion next group I say it's

1 billion it's actually 1.4 something

but there are less here next group 45 to

61 billion almost precisely 1 billion

then it's my group 60 years and older

and we are not really 1 billion but

almost and we take the help by some

really old people who join our group

here so we have this is the world

population

today this is the world the composition

of the world population you could call

it a population pyramid more in the base

than up here now many think that the

reason these are missing is because they

died no no some are missing because they

died most are missing because they were

never born because back then 30 to 60

years ago there were fewer people born

because there were fewer women then more

and more survived and then we got this

situation now the number of children

will not increase these two billions

will remain two billions for the rest of

this century and the 71 year of life

expectancy it won't increase that much

so let's assume that that stays the same

so if number of children stays the

same length of life stays the same what

will

happen because there are some people

telling me the environmental problems

are so severe so we have to stop world

population below 10 billion aha I is

that so have you studied demography I

said yes yes yes we have to stop it no

you can't I said I will show you know

why you can't stop it below 10 because

imagine let's look at let's look at me

my group what happened to people like me

do you know

that no one has a family that are

Undertakers they die we die the old

people die some think we become Angels

some things we just disappear anyhow

they

disappear what happens to the rest of

you you grow older you grow older and

older and older and 15 years from now

you have changed age group and and then

other children come and replace you down

there can you

see same amount of children as I showed

you then they all die the rest grow

older and older and older and get the

same amount of

children 30 years from now then they all

die it's not so difficult you get it now

they die the rest grow older and older

and older and here they are I mean this

this is you started down there most of

you students 1 2 3 this is when you are

up here you are 60 years now you become

like

me you see when you are like me it's

filled up to here and we have three

billion

more you saw the

magic without increasing the number of

children without increasing the length

of life we got three billion more I'll

do it once

more because you're in doubt there

someone think here I made this up you

know in some way the all die the rest

grow older and they get children they

all die the rest grow older they get

children they all die the rest grow

older they get children and there you

are inevitably you will have three

billion more people because death starts

up here at this age relatively few die

here

135 million children born six million

die every year it's down to 5% that's

mainly down here our death then death

rate is relatively low all the way up

here because life expectancy is

71 now in spite of instead of getting

shorter life what we think is that we

will get longer life and we think we

will get one billion more up there of

course I'm very happy of that that will

give me 15 years more to follow

statistics you

know so now that some people just wrote

in the Swedish newspaper and criticized

me and said we must be less than 10

billions but who should we take

away which one do they want to

remove yeah should we let you know

they take away the old but there still

10

billion it's 10 10 billion you want to

take more can you kill these

two no say no for God's sake it's

forbid don't be in doubt it's absolutely

forbidden Thou shalt not kill haven't

you read the

Bible so what shall you do what shall

you

do I think you will have to do it like

this you have to force people to just

have one

child do you

see if you do like mum they say you

introduce one child it's very delicate

you have to be careful if they did it

like this then they can get 8

billion you think people voluntarily

will go for one

child no I suggested to the leader of

the Swedish environmental

party who argued at one time and said

that that you know we should have less

people in the world I said and we talked

with her and I said yeah why don't you

start with Sweden then because we are

one of the rich country that increased

the number of children per Wom

it's quite easy you just take away the

child allowances the subsidies for the

daycare center and you put in school

fees three simple measures as a

politician the number of children per

woman in Sweden will drop from two to

1.5 of course you will lose the next

election and you have to make a kudat

you know and become

dictator it's very strange how serious

people can suggest

this now I share the con concern about

the environment I share the concern

about elephants and rhinos I share more

than anyone else the concern concern

about the climate but I ain't going to

kill people to achieve it I ain't going

to force people to get

sterilized I ain't going to become

moou because it won't work people won't

accept it they won't accept it and and

and here you can see so I think we will

have to oh yes this is

like

oh you can't you can't mix up with

population like that it's very dangerous

you have to be careful with people H you

have to be very careful with people so

they can live decent their life I think

the solution for the world lies in

respecting people you know and seeing

what it is and that's not difficult we

know everyone should have access to

contraceptives everywhere but not be

forced because if you force people it

will

backfire and we know that the poorest in

Africa they will not use contraceptive

as long as they see their children dying

as long as they don't have a school in

the village as long as they need their

children for work Malala said they don't

go to school because they have to work

to support their family and as long as

things are like this they want their

kids and then some want their kid a

little too long many kids because some

men are proud because because I made so

many children uh and when men think that

their pride is having seven eight nine

children instead of how well their

children are doing that's oldfashioned

patriarchical thinking men have to think

my pride is how well my children are

doing how happy they are in life that's

my pride and when you get that attitude

change you have to get it's not only

providing services this is the number of

birth in the world it has already

happened the number of birth is not

increasing any longer in the

world the adults are increasing you get

it

now you understand why these adults are

adding it's these three just by the fill

up and it's this group here but it's

more to it it's more to it we have to go

a little more into details a little more

into details look

here now it's late in the evening and I

put the demanding explanation of

demography here to you each doll here is

100 million now these one were thousand

Millions 1 billion thousand Millions no

10 out of these dolls is one

here down here I have what is it should

be about 20 down there these ones are

Europeans children these are American

children these are African children as

many children in Africa as in the whole

of the Americas in Europe together and

these are Asian

children and you can see see that at the

age between 15 and 30 then there are

less Africans here's even less African

here's very few

Africans so the African population is

quite dramatic it's still increasing the

number of children in Asia they've

stopped

increasing remember the Asian curve it

was already down to

two so Asia is not increasing Africa is

at 4.5 they will continue to increase

for

another 30 years more or less 30 years

so what happens here is the following

you know it now the old dies the rest

grow older and they have their children

who one more in

Africa One Less in Asia that's why the

number of children doesn't increase the

increase of children in Africa is

compensated by a decrease of children in

Asia and Europe but Europe is so little

it doesn't matter

much they die they grow older and they

get children and one more in

Africa out of think like this out of

four children in China that pass their

15th birthday three are replaced by a

Chinese baby born and one is replaced by

a Nigerian baby

born that means that children

conceptually are moving from Asia to

Africa children in the world remain the

same but they are moving towards poverty

because in poverty the number of

children increase where countries are

more wealthy the number decrease that's

why it's a good reason to support

UNICEF children in the world need

support and here they die they get older

and they get children and they die and

they get older and they get children and

these is the fill up of adults you

remember the three billion I showed you

here these three

billions is the same as that group there

when I make it in more detail it's a

fill up of people and that's why Africa

will increase so much and Asia will

increase so much Africa also increase

her because of an increase of children

and Asia decreased down

there so longer

life this one I hope to be this

one I can follow statistics for 15 more

years you know and see what happens h

this we don't know we don't know here

you see if people want to decrease the

number of people in the world they think

provide prevent contraceptives in Africa

yes go for it but don't think you can

force poor women poor women are clever

otherwise they are dead don't think they

are dumb if they want many children it's

because they see their children dying

they need their kids to help them they

get a better life immediately they will

ask first for family planning to space

children to wait for the next child and

then decide how many they we have this

is a new tool that Gap minder have made

on our web page