Animation of the demographic transition model and population growth & decline

Summary

This script discusses the use of birth and mortality rates as indicators of a country's development. It explains how these rates are calculated per thousand inhabitants and how they change over the five phases of the demographic transition model. The model illustrates the shift from high birth and mortality rates in poor countries to low rates and potential population decline in highly developed nations, highlighting the impact of healthcare, education, and contraceptive availability on population growth.

Takeaways

• 📊 Economic development can be gauged using indicators such as average income, birth rate, and mortality rate.
• 🌱 Birth rate is calculated per thousand inhabitants to allow for fair comparisons between countries with different populations.
• 💀 Mortality rate is calculated similarly to birth rate, dividing the number of deaths by the total population and multiplying by one thousand.
• 🌼 Natural population growth is the difference between birth and mortality rates, reflecting a country's demographic health.
• 🌐 The demographic transition model illustrates changes in birth and mortality rates over time, with five distinct phases.
• 🏥 In Phase 1 of the model, both birth and mortality rates are high due to poor healthcare and lack of family planning.
• 🚑 Phase 2 sees an improvement in healthcare leading to a decrease in mortality rate, but birth rates remain high, leading to significant population growth.
• 💊 Phase 3 is characterized by declining birth and mortality rates as contraceptives become more available and child mortality decreases.
• 🌍 In Phase 4, both birth and mortality rates are low, resulting in slow or no population growth, typical of many developed countries.
• 📉 Phase 5 is marked by an increase in mortality rate above birth rate, leading to a natural population decline, seen in the most developed countries.
• 📈 The demographic transition model helps predict future demographic changes and assess a country's development stage.

Q & A

What are the common indicators used to compare the development of countries?

Common indicators used to compare the development of countries include average income, economic development, mortality rate, and birth rate.

Why are birth rate and mortality rate useful indicators for measuring a country's development?

Birth rate and mortality rate are useful indicators because they reflect the health and living conditions of a population, which are directly related to the level of development a country has achieved.

How is the birth rate calculated?

The birth rate is calculated by dividing the number of live births in a year by the total number of inhabitants, and then multiplying by 1,000 to get the rate per thousand inhabitants.

What was the birth rate of the Netherlands in 2016 according to the transcript?

The birth rate of the Netherlands in 2016 was 10.0 per 1,000 inhabitants.

How is the mortality rate calculated?

The mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths in a year by the total number of inhabitants, and then multiplying by 1,000.

What was the mortality rate of the Netherlands in 2016?

The mortality rate of the Netherlands in 2016 was 8.8 per 1,000 inhabitants.

What is natural population growth and how is it calculated?

Natural population growth is the difference between the birth rate and the mortality rate. It is calculated by subtracting the mortality rate from the birth rate.

What was the natural population growth in the Netherlands in 2016?

The natural population growth in the Netherlands in 2016 was 1.2 per 1,000 inhabitants.

What are the five phases of the demographic transition model?

The five phases of the demographic transition model are: 1) High birth and mortality rates, 2) Declining mortality rate with high birth rate, 3) Declining birth rate with low mortality rate, 4) Low birth and mortality rates, and 5) Mortality rate higher than birth rate leading to population decline.

Which phase of the demographic transition model represents a country that is very poor and hardly developed?

A country that is very poor and hardly developed is represented in Phase One of the demographic transition model, where both birth and mortality rates are very high.

What happens to the population growth in Phase Three of the demographic transition model?

In Phase Three of the demographic transition model, the population continues to increase, but the rate of increase is declining due to declining birth rates and the availability of contraceptives.

Which countries are examples of those in Phase Four of the demographic transition model?

Countries in Phase Four of the demographic transition model, where both birth and mortality rates are low, include many developed countries such as the Netherlands.

What does Phase Five of the demographic transition model indicate about a country's population?

Phase Five indicates that a country's mortality rate is higher than its birth rate, leading to a natural population decline and a decrease in total population size.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Economic and Demographic Indicators

This paragraph discusses the use of economic indicators such as average income and demographic indicators like birth and mortality rates to compare the development levels of countries. It explains how birth rates and mortality rates are calculated per thousand inhabitants to allow for fair comparisons between countries. The Netherlands is used as an example to illustrate the calculation of birth and mortality rates, showing a birth rate of 10.0 and a mortality rate of 8.8 in 2016. The concept of natural population growth, which is the difference between birth and mortality rates, is introduced, with the Netherlands' natural growth being 1.2. The demographic transition model is mentioned as a way to show the development of these rates over time, with five phases representing different stages of a country's development.

Keywords

💡Economic Development

Economic development refers to the process by which a nation improves the economic, political, and social well-being of its inhabitants. In the context of the video, economic development is tied to indicators like average income, which reflect a country's progress and standard of living. The video uses economic development as a backdrop to discuss how demographic factors such as birth and mortality rates are also indicative of a country's developmental stage.

💡Mortality Rate

The mortality rate is the ratio of the number of deaths in a certain period to the total population. It is a key demographic indicator that reflects the health and living conditions within a country. The video explains that a high mortality rate, such as 40 per 1000 inhabitants, can indicate poor healthcare and living conditions. The Netherlands' mortality rate of 8.8 per 1000 inhabitants in 2016 is given as an example to illustrate how this rate is calculated and what it might suggest about a country's development.

💡Birth Rate

The birth rate is the ratio of live births to the total population over a certain period. It is another demographic indicator that, along with the mortality rate, helps to understand the population dynamics of a country. The video script explains how the birth rate is calculated per thousand inhabitants, using the Netherlands as an example with a birth rate of 10 per 1000 inhabitants in 2016.

💡Natural Population Growth

Natural population growth is the difference between the birth rate and the mortality rate in a population. A positive number indicates that the population is growing, while a negative number indicates a decline. The video uses the Netherlands' natural population growth of 1.2 as an example to show how this is calculated by subtracting the mortality rate from the birth rate.

💡Demographic Transition Model

The demographic transition model is a theoretical model that describes the shift in fertility and mortality rates as countries develop from pre-industrial to industrial and post-industrial stages. The video script uses this model to illustrate the stages of development countries go through, starting from high birth and mortality rates to low rates, and eventually to a potential decline in population growth.

💡Phase One

Phase one of the demographic transition model represents the initial stage where both birth and mortality rates are high, typically found in very poor and underdeveloped countries. The video mentions that in this phase, mortality rates can reach 40 per 1000 inhabitants, indicating poor healthcare and high child mortality, necessitating larger families for support in old age.

💡Phase Two

Phase two is characterized by a decline in the mortality rate due to improvements in healthcare and sanitation, while the birth rate remains high, leading to a significant natural population growth. The video describes how countries like Angola and Afghanistan fit into this phase, emphasizing the need for continued development to manage population growth.

💡Phase Three

In phase three of the demographic transition model, both mortality and birth rates begin to decline, but the population continues to grow, albeit at a decreasing rate. The video points out that contraceptives become more available, child mortality decreases, and girls' education leads to lower birth rates, as seen in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico.

💡Phase Four

Phase four is marked by low birth and mortality rates, resulting in minimal natural population growth. The video uses the Netherlands as an example of a country in this phase, where the population size hardly grows due to the balance between births and deaths.

💡Phase Five

Phase five is characterized by an increase in the mortality rate above the birth rate, leading to a natural population decline. This phase is associated with an aging population and is typical of highly developed countries, as mentioned in the video with Germany as an example.

💡Contraceptives

Contraceptives are methods or devices used to prevent pregnancy. The video highlights how the increased availability of contraceptives contributes to the decline in birth rates, particularly in phase three of the demographic transition model. This is a critical factor in managing population growth and is linked to improvements in women's education and healthcare.

Highlights

Average income and mortality rates are key indicators of economic development.

Birth rate is calculated per thousand inhabitants to allow for country comparisons.

The Netherlands had a birth rate of 10 per thousand inhabitants in 2016.

Mortality rate is calculated similarly by dividing the number of deaths by the total population.

The Netherlands had a mortality rate of 8.8 per thousand inhabitants in 2016.

Natural population growth is the difference between birth and mortality rates.

The demographic transition model illustrates the development of birth and mortality rates over time.

Phase one of the model represents countries with high birth and mortality rates due to poor healthcare.

Phase two shows a decrease in mortality rate as healthcare improves, but birth rates remain high.

Phase three indicates a decline in both birth and mortality rates as contraceptives become more available.

Phase four is characterized by low birth and mortality rates, leading to slow population growth.

Phase five sees an increase in mortality rate above birth rate, resulting in population decline.

The demographic transition model helps predict future demographic developments in countries.

Countries like Angola and Chad are in phase two, experiencing high natural population growth.

Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico are in phase three with declining population growth.

Developed countries like the Netherlands are in phase four with low natural population growth.

Germany exemplifies phase five, where the population is aging and declining.

The model is useful for comparing the development levels of different countries.

Transcripts

to compare the development of countries

often used indicators such as average

income concern economic development

indicators on the level of mortality in

birth also tell us something about the

development of a country and are

therefore useful indicators too

frequently used indicators are the birth

rate and the mortality rate the birth

rate starts with the number of live

births in a year because there are more

people living in one country than in

another more children are probably born

in a country that is why we calculate

birth rate per thousand inhabitants in

this way countries can be compared we do

this in the following way the

Netherlands had 17 million inhabitants

in 2016 and 170,000 babies were born in

each year we divide the number of babies

by the number of inhabitants and not

applied by thousands to calculate birth

rate we therefore divide 170 thousands

by 17 million people and we multiply by

thousands so the birth rate of the

Netherlands in 2016 or stem point zero

the mortality rate is calculated almost

in the same way but here we shared a

number of deaths by the inhabitants in

2016 one hundred and fifty thousand

people died in the Netherlands we divide

150 thousand by seventeen million and

multiplied by thousands and then it

appears that a mortality rate of the

Netherlands in 2016 was 8.8 the natural

population growth is a difference

between a birth and mortality rate 10

point zero minus eight point eight is

one point two the natural population

growth in the Netherlands in 2016 was

therefore one point two the birth rate

and a mortality rate shows a lot of

development in a country because they

develop over time we can show this

development in a demographic transition

model demos means people and graphically

a description the demographic transition

model first shows us a change in the

characteristics of the birth and

mortality rate we can show the

demographic transition model as a graph

in which the lines represent birth rate

mortality rate and the pop

the total population size the model

consists of five phases if a country is

very poor and hardly developed both

birth and the mortality rate will be

very high this is phase one the

mortality rate can reach 40 and a birth

rate even something higher this means

that an average of 40 people die each

year per thousand inhabitants that is

because the healthcare is still poorly

developed people get a lot of children

so the children can take care of the

parents when they're old and there are

still few contraceptives available

nowadays there are actually no countries

and more that meet this description when

a country starts to develop the quality

of the healthcare increases people are

being vaccinated but the doctors and

more hospitals are available this

reduces the mortality rate this is phase

two because the birth rate still remains

high there is a huge natural population

growth this increases the total

population size the poorest countries in

the world meet its description such as

Angola and chart it is important for

these countries to continue to develop

so that population growth will decline

in Phase three there is already a low

mortality rate but also to birth rate

declines contraceptives are more

available and because child mortality is

falling people need fewer children who

can take care of them later girls also

go to school much longer which leads to

a lower birth rate because there is

still a big difference between a birth

and mortality rate population continues

to increase but the increase is

declining many countries that have

developed quite well already meet this

description such as Indonesia South

Africa and Mexico in phase four the rest

and low birth and mortality rate the

natural population growth is low again

as a result of which the population size

hardly grows many developed countries

meet his description such as the

Netherlands in phase 5 - mortality rate

increases and becomes higher than the

birth rate for the first time in history

of a country it has to do with a natural

population decline instead of growth and

so the total population size decreases

this happens when the population is

getting older so that more and more

people die only a few of the most

developed countries meet its

descriptions such as Germany the

demographic transition model helps us to

compare the development of camp

it shows us which demographic

developments a country will experience

in the future