Why Yemen Could Split Into Two Countries
Summary
TLDRThe video provides background on Yemen's history of division and conflict between North and South Yemen before unification in 1990. It explains how the Houthis emerged and gained control of much of the country, leading to civil war. Despite a fragile ceasefire in 2022, tensions remain between the Houthis, the Saudi-backed government, and southern separatists. The current crisis in the Red Sea risks restarting the civil war. The video also promotes the documentary series Modern Conflict on Nebula streaming service.
Takeaways
- ๐ Yemen has a long history of division and conflict between north and south Yemen before unification in 1990
- ๐ค The current crisis threatens to restart Yemen's civil war between the Iran-backed Houthis who control the north and the Saudi-backed government in the south
- ๐ฎ The Houthis have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea, impacting global trade and worrying other countries in the region
- ๐ Yemen has been mired in conflict for decades between competing factions and external powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran
- ๐คจ Despite a fragile ceasefire since 2022, Yemen remains in a dire humanitarian crisis with millions in need of aid
- ๐ South Yemen separatists want to split from the north again due to feelings of neglect, adding complexity
- ๐ฃ Unifying Yemen under one faction seems unlikely given the deep divisions, but splitting again may not resolve tensions either
- ๐ฌ The Red Sea crisis risks plunging Yemen back into full-scale civil war between the Houthis, southern separatists, Saudi-backed government forces
- ๐ External powers like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran further complicate the conflict by backing different sides
- ๐ค Broader geopolitics mean peace in Yemen not just up to Yemenis, international cooperation key to ending crisis
Q & A
What are the Houthis and what territory do they control?
-The Houthis are a rebel group that originated from the Zaidi tribes in northern Yemen. As of 2022, they control most of Yemen's populated eastern territory.
What caused the current crisis in the Red Sea?
-The current crisis began when the Houthis started attacking maritime traffic passing through the Red Sea. This threatens to restart the civil war which has been on hold since the April 2022 ceasefire.
How did North and South Yemen form originally?
-North Yemen originated from the Yemen Arab Republic formed after a coup in the 1960s. South Yemen was the British colony of Aden which achieved independence in the 1960s.
Why did North and South Yemen unify in 1990?
-They unified with the hope of jointly developing newly discovered oil fields and improving economic prospects. North Yemen effectively took over South Yemen which was weaker.
Who was Ali Abdullah Saleh and what was his role?
-Saleh was president of North Yemen from 1978 and of unified Yemen from 1990-2011. He held power through patronage and alliances until forced out by protests in 2011.
How did the Houthis come to power?
-The Houthis fought and defeated the government of President Hadi which was weakened by infighting and lack of Saudi/UAE support. They took control of most of Yemen's populated areas.
Who are the Southern Transitional Council separatists?
-The STC are a separatist group backed by UAE that wants South Yemen to secede. They temporarily took Aden but joined a unity government in 2020.
What led to the 2022 ceasefire agreement?
-The ceasefire was negotiated between the Houthis, Hadi's Saudi-backed government, and the STC separatists after years of stalemate.
Could South Yemen become independent again?
-It's unlikely soon, since no side wants outright separation. But a unified Yemen under Houthi control could prompt eventual separation.
What's the current outlook for resolving the conflict?
-A lasting unified Yemen seems unlikely given disagreements. But South Yemen independence remains distant given opposition.
Outlines
๐ History of Conflict in Yemen Before Unification in 1990
Paragraph 1 provides background on the history of conflict in Yemen before it was unified in 1990. It discusses the split between a Marxist-Leninist South Yemen that emerged from British rule and an Arab nationalist North Yemen, both of which experienced significant political instability and civil wars. It also covers the gradual unification process, driven largely by economic considerations around oil.
๐ฅ Yemen's Struggles After Unification Leading to Current Civil War
Paragraph 2 discusses Yemen's struggles after unification in 1990, including economic stagnation, political corruption, and tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy disputes. This paved the way for the eventual Houthi takeover of much of the country and the ongoing multi-sided civil war between the Houthis, Saudi-backed government forces, southern separatists, and Al Qaeda.
๐ Possibility of Yemen Splitting Again in the Future
Paragraph 3 analyzes the possibility of Yemen splitting up again in the future along the pre-unification boundary. It discusses factors making this unlikely in the short term, like opposition from major parties and the weakness of southern separatists, but notes that if the prospect of Houthi control over a unified Yemen grows, separation may become more appealing.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กYemen
๐กHouthis
๐กRed Sea
๐กSouth Yemen
๐กSaudi Arabia
๐กUnited Arab Emirates (UAE)
๐กArab Spring
๐กal-Qaeda
๐กceasefire
๐กhumanitarian crisis
Highlights
Yemen has been split into two separate states for most of its modern history
South Yemen was the only communist state in the Middle East during the Cold War
After unification in 1990, North Yemen politically and economically dominated South Yemen
Yemen's stance against the Gulf War isolated it economically in the early 1990s
The Houthis emerged from northern tribes that fought the government in the 2000s
The Houthis were able to defeat the internationally recognized Hadi government
The UAE has backed southern separatists that want to reverse Yemen's unification
A ceasefire was signed between the major factions in April 2022
The leader of the southern separatists has accused Saudi Arabia of sidelining them in recent negotiations
It's unlikely southern Yemen could function well again as an independent state
A unified Yemen would likely be Houthi-controlled, concerning southerners
If Saudis accept a Houthi-led Yemen, they may support southern secession
Saudi Arabia tries to prevent Yemeni unity by encouraging other southern tribes
A unified Yemen looks unlikely given disagreements between factions
Documentary on Israel-Gaza conflicts available exclusively on Nebula
Transcripts
this video is brought to you by nebula
Yemen has been in the news a lot
recently mainly because the houthis who
control most of the country's East have
been attacking Maritime traffic passing
through the Red Sea but while most of
the media's attention has been focused
on the impact it might have on global
Shipping the current crisis in the Red
Sea is also worrying because it risks
restarting Yemen Civil War which has
been on hold since the ceasefire was
negotiated between the houthis and the
Saudi backed and internationally recog
ized yemeni government in April 2022
despite subsequent Paws in high level
conflict Yemen is still considered one
of the world's worst humanitarian crisis
with over 20 million people or about 70%
of the population currently in need of
humanitarian assistance so in this video
we're going to take a look at Yemen
Civil War how the Red Sea crisis
jeopardizes its fragile peace and how it
could
[Music]
end before we start if you haven't
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be notified when we release new videos
now the first thing to understand about
Yemen is that it's basically been beset
by sectarian violence for most of modern
history before unification in 1990 Yemen
was split into two states South Yemen
and North Yemen South Yemen originated
with the British protectorate of Aiden
the British captured the port of Aiden
in the 19th century because they thought
the port was in a strategically
advantageous location while Britain's
other outposts in the Middle East such
as Egypt Palestine or the Gulf were
mandates or protectorates Aiden was its
only Arab Colony I.E directly ruled by
the British crown the surrounding area
which was mostly sparsely populated
desert was governed by local tribes but
overseen by the British as the Aiden
protectorate and the boundaries of the
Aden protectorate basically map on to
what would become South Yemen South
Yemen achieved independent from the
British in the 1960s and promptly turned
into a Marxist leninist onep party State
led by a group called the National
Liberation Front this made South Yemen
then known as people's Democratic
Republic of Yemen the only avowedly
communist nation in the Middle East and
it received significant foreign aid and
assistance from the Soviet Union North
Yemen also came into being as a state
during the 60s when local Arab
revolutionaries staged a coup against
King Muhammad Al bad whose family had
taken power after the collapse of the
Ottoman Empire and established the Yemen
Arab Republic with sonar as its capital
neither Yemen was able to achieve
political stability on top of the two
Wars between the two Yemen in 1972 and
1979 both countries were beset by Civil
War South Yemen remained appallingly
poor for decades after Independence and
in 1986 after a prolonged period of
political instability the ruling yemeni
Socialist Party collapsed into a Civil
War which ended up killing thousands of
yemenis in North Yemen zadii tribes in
the Northern areas were constantly
fighting against the Sunni populations
in the coastal and Southern regions
ironically these tribes who were
supported by Saudi Arabia would go on to
become the houthis successive presidents
were either ousted or assassinated until
the arrival of President Ali Abdullah
Salah in
1978 with the help of an extensive
patronage system Salah was able to hold
on to power until unification in 1990
when he became president of Yemen during
unification North Yemen essentially
subsumed South Yemen which was both
poorer less populated and politically
weakened by the 1986 crisis one of the
motivations for the merger was the
discovery of oil fields in the Marb in
North Yemen and shabua in South Yemen
and the hope that cooperation could help
both countries more effectively develop
their oil fields anyway for the first
decade or so after unification Yemen
remained very poor War this was in part
because corruption undermined the
budding oil industry but also because in
November 1990 just 6 months after
unification Yemen voted against UN
resolution 678 condemning Saddam Hussein
this didn't go down well with Yemen's
Arab neighbors including Saudi Arabia or
the West under the George HW Bush
Administration the us immediately cut
$70 million in Aid funding and pressured
other states to do the same which meant
that Yemen received very little human
Arian Aid relative to its poverty level
a few years later Yemen applied to the
gulf cooperation Council a political and
economic Union comprising Bahrain Kuwait
Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia and the UAE in
an attempt to improve its economic
prospects but was duly rejected by 2001
Yemen had learned from its mistakes
after 911 Yemen immediately offered its
full support to the US in fighting
terrorism Yemen leader Salah was one of
the first people to be invited to
Washington and Yemen received millions
of dollars in development Aid and
military aid for fighting al-Qaeda in
2002 Yemen was allowed to joined certain
GCC adjacent institutions and in 2007 it
began negotiations for full membership
GDP per capita which had flatlined about
$400 for the decade after unification
began to increase reaching a peak of
over
$1,500 in 2014 unfortunately things only
went downhill from there as part of the
Arab Spring in 2011 protests across
Yemen for Salah to finally stand down
and hand over power to his Deputy adraa
mansur hati while Haiti was originally
quite popular he was constantly
undermined by the Army and Security
Services who were still loyal to Sala
and was unable to stem the constant
factional infighting during the
transition in 2014 he proposed a new
federal Yemen divided into Six States
but this was soundly rejected by the
houthis because the region that incl
included the houthis Heartland had
access neither to the Red Sea nor any
oil fields as we mentioned earlier the
houthis emerged from the zi tribes and
named themselves after the aloui
brothers who led a zi Rebellion against
salah's government in the 2000s after
Salah signed a controversial border deal
with Saudi Arabia anyway this sparked a
full-blown war between the Haiti
government and the houthis we're not
going to go into too much detail here
but the tldr is that the houthis
basically won and today control most of
Yemen's populated areas this was for at
least three reasons first they were
supported by Iran in part because
zismo and third while both Saudi Arabia
and the UAE opposed the houthis they
supported different anti- houthi
factions Saudi Arabia supported hades's
government while the UAE backed the
southern transitional Council or STC
separatist group that wants the South to
secede basically reversing the
unification we saw in 1990 for context
there's always been a sense in much of
South Yemen that they've been neglected
by the more powerful North and there
were separatist movements in the mid90s
and late 2000s Haiti and the STC were
originally allies but in early 2018 the
STC split from Haiti and started
fighting against government forces after
taking control of Aiden and most of
southern Yemen's populated centers they
declared autonomous rule in the south in
2020 hostilities were put on pause in
April 2022 when they both joined the
saudy Le presidential Leadership Council
and signed a ceasefire with the houthis
but in the past few months the leader of
the stdc general idus Al zedi has
accused the Saudis of sidelining the STC
in negotiations with the houthis and has
restarted advocating for southern
Independence so could this happen could
Yemen split once again well it looks
unlikely at least in the immediate
future neither the houthis nor Haiti and
the Saudis want Yemen to split and all
hope to one day regain control over the
entire territory and even if the STC are
the major player in southern Yemen they
don't have a monopoly of control like
the houthis sort of do in North Yemen in
part because Saudi Arabia have tried to
undermine Zed's calls by encouraging
tribes in the South to push for their
own independence it's also worth saying
that South Yemen didn't really function
very well as an independent state before
unification and it would be constantly
threatened by the houthis and terrorist
groups like alqaeda operating in the
deserts nearby on the other hand though
the South has never really been happy in
its Union with the north as evidenced by
the recurring separatist violence we saw
in the '90s and 2000s also given the
trajectory of the war a single unified
Yemen would almost definitely be
controlled by the houthis which is
something the south is understandably
wary of if the Saudis eventually accept
that a unified state would be a houthi
state they might decide that Yemen's
disunion is the least bad option
especially if the Saudi Iran
relationship develops to the point that
they can convince tyan to reduce support
for the houthis all in all while South
Yemen still seems a distant Prospect a
unified Yemen also looks pretty unlikely
given the disagreements between the
houthis and the Saudis which means
there's always a chance you've no doubt
been following along with the news from
Israel and Gaza but if you want a better
understanding to dive deeper into the
history of the region then you should
check out real life laws hourong
documentary about the tensions and
fighting between Israel and Gaza going
back decades that video by the way is
part of real life laws modern conflict
Series where they regularly run through
major ongoing conflicts from Lebanon
Civil War to everything going on in
Myanmar and the Turkish Kurdish conflict
it's an incredible series and it's
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