Affirm Stock (AFRM) Earnings Call | FYQ2 Breakdown

Future Investing
8 Feb 202464:12

Summary

TLDRこのスクリプトは、アフィルム(Affirm)の財務結果と今後の展望について詳しく説明しています。アフィルムは、後期取引で株価が15%下落したにもかかわらず、強力な四半期を報告しました。売上高は前年比で48%増加し、利益は93百万円のプラスになりました。アフィルムカードの利用は700,000枚に達し、売上高に対する割合も前年比で増加しました。また、アフィルムは、今後も支払いやクレジットカード、そしてフルサービス金融プラットフォームへの転換を目指していると述べています。

Takeaways

  • 📉 株価が15%下落したが、四半期の業績は非常に強調的。
  • 💹 売上高は5.91億ドルで、前年比48%の増加。
  • 📈 総商品取引量(GMV)は75億ドルで、前年比32%の増加。
  • 💳 Affirmカードの発行枚数は70万枚に達し、前回の5倍。
  • 🛍️ 旅行・チケットの売上高は前年比56%増加し、全体の成長に貢献。
  • 📊 売上高から取引コストを引いた利益は1億8700万ドルで、前年比68%の増加。
  • 🔄 返済能力は良好で、30日以上の遅延返済率は年々と四半期ごとに同じ水準を維持。
  • 🚀 Affirmは、PayPalの共同創業者であるMax Levchinによって創設された。
  • 🌐 Shopifyとの提携が加速し、GMVの成長はAffirm全体の2倍速で進んでいる。
  • 💰 四半期の予想GMVは58億から60億ドルで、売上高は53億から55億ドル。
  • 🔄 資金調達能力は69%で、他の金融テクノロジー企業よりも低水準。

Q & A

  • アフィルムの株価がどのように変動しましたか?

    -アフィルムの株価は、アフターアワーズで15%下落しました。これは悪質な四半期報告ではなく、前の四半期で株価が大きく上昇したためです。

  • アフィルムの四半期の業績はどのようでしたか?

    -アフィルムは、実際には非常に強い四半期を発表しました。総商品取引量は75億ドルに達し、Buy Now Pay Laterの取引量は32%増加しました。

  • マックス・レブチンはどのような人物ですか?

    -マックス・レブチンはPayPalの創設者であり、オンライン決済をデジタル化した重要な人物です。彼はElon Muskと一緒にPayPal Mafiaを形成しました。

  • アフィルムの売上高はどのくらいになりましたか?

    -アフィルムの売上高は5億9100万ドルで、前年比で48%増加しました。

  • アフィルムのオペレーション利益はどのくらいでしたか?

    -アフィルムのオペレーション利益は1億8700万ドルで、前年比で大きく改善されましたが、まだ赤字です。しかし、オペレーション利益を調整すると、9300万ドルの利益ができました。

  • アフィルムの株主への書簡でどのようなコミットメントが再確認されましたか?

    -アフィルムは、信用性能、ボリューム成長、またはイノベーションを犠牲にしないで運営リーバレッジを築くことを再確認しました。市場は当初は納得していませんでしたが、12ヶ月後には彼らが約束したことを達成しました。

  • アフィルムのカードの成長はどのようでしたか?

    -アフィルムのカードは、前回の報告以来、500,000枚から700,000枚に増加しました。これは彼らのビジネスの一部として非常に急速に拡大しています。

  • アフィルムの将来の展望はどのようなものですか?

    -アフィルムは、今後の四半期のGMVを5.8億から6億ドル、売上高を530億から550億ドルと予測しています。これは前回の結果と比較して、成長を続けています。

  • アフィルムの取引コストはどのようになっていますか?

    -アフィルムの取引コストは、総取引コストの350億ドルから325億ドル~335億ドルの範囲で予測されています。これは前回の四半期よりも高くなる可能性があります。

  • アフィルムの株主への書簡でどのような戦略が説明されていますか?

    -アフィルムは、少ないリソースでより多くのことを学び、より良い会社になることができると強調しています。彼らは、金融テクノロジー投資家のワークスペースの上にこのステートメントを置くべきだと述べています。

  • アフィルムの旅行・チケットの成長はどのようでしたか?

    -アフィルムの旅行・チケットの成長は56%で、総成長に重要な貢献をしました。しかし、スポーツ用品やアウトドア、ホーム・ライフスタイル、電子製品などの自己流儀のカテゴリーは、総成長率の向上に引き続き影響を与えています。

Outlines

00:00

📉 股市动态与公司业绩

介绍了一家公司股价在盘后交易中下跌15%的情况。尽管公司季度业绩强劲,但由于股价在上一季度大幅上涨,市场对此季度的业绩预期过高。提到了Max Levin,PayPal的创始人,以及他与Elon Musk的合作历史。强调了公司在运营效率、信用表现和产品创新方面的承诺,并提到了公司在假日季度的总商品交易额(GMV)和购买后支付(buy out pay later)的增长。

05:00

📈 公司业绩与市场反应

讨论了公司在不同业务领域的业绩,包括旅行和票务、体育用品和户外家居电子产品等。提到了公司活跃客户数量的增长,以及公司收入和交易成本的变化。还提到了公司对未来业绩的展望,包括预计的GMV和收入,以及与上一季度的比较。强调了公司在股票补偿和信用表现方面的积极变化。

10:01

🔍 业绩分析与未来展望

分析了公司在不同业务领域的业绩,包括B2B产品和国际增长的预期。提到了公司在加拿大的业务表现,以及公司股票的表现。讨论了公司成为全方位服务平台的潜力,以及公司在“买现在,以后付”(buy now pay later)模式上的可持续性。强调了公司在信用账户和国际扩张方面的策略。

15:04

📞 投资者电话会议

描述了公司与投资者的电话会议内容,包括公司的前瞻性声明、非GAAP财务措施的解释,以及公司管理层对公司业绩的讨论。提到了公司创始人兼首席执行官Max Levin和首席财务官Michael Lenford的发言,以及他们对公司未来业绩的展望和策略。

20:05

📊 业绩细节与市场动态

详细讨论了公司的业绩细节,包括GMV的增长、不同业务领域的业绩、以及公司在信用和风险管理方面的表现。提到了公司在Shopify平台上的合作成果,以及公司在产品开发和市场扩张方面的努力。强调了公司在信用卡和账户持有者方面的增长策略。

25:08

💳 信用卡业务与用户行为

分析了公司信用卡业务的表现,包括用户使用频率、信用卡发行量以及公司在信用卡业务上的策略。提到了公司在信用卡业务上的增长计划,以及公司如何通过信用卡业务来提高用户参与度和交易频率。强调了公司在信用卡业务上的长期目标和策略。

30:09

📉 股市反应与投资者情绪

讨论了公司股价在财报发布后的反应,以及投资者对公司业绩和未来展望的看法。提到了公司在股市中的表现,以及投资者对公司业绩的预期。强调了公司在股市中的表现与公司业绩之间的关系,以及投资者对公司未来业绩的期待。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡アフィルム (Affirm)

アフィルムは、このビデオの主題である金融テクノロジー企業です。ビデオでは、アフィルムの株価動向や業績、特に「アフィルムカード」の成長と、オンラインショッピングにおける「今月の支払い」機能について説明されています。アフィルムは、消費者金融サービスを提供し、購入時の支払いを後延させることができるサービスを提供しています。

💡株価 (Stock Price)

株価は、企業の価値を市場で評価した金額です。ビデオでは、アフィルムの株価が15%下落したことや、過去の株価動向が説明されています。株価の変動は、企業の業績や市場の期待に応じて大きく変わることがあります。

💡Q2 (Second Quarter)

Q2は、財務報告において第二四半期を指します。ビデオでは、アフィルムのQ2の業績が強調されており、売上高や利益の向上が報告されています。Q2は通常、7月1日から9月30日までの3ヶ月間を指し、多くの企業にとって重要な業績評価の時期です。

💡GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume)

GMVは、企業が扱う商品やサービスの総取引額を指す指標です。ビデオでは、アフィルムのQ2のGMVが7.5億ドルに達し、前年比で32%の成長を示したことが触れられています。GMVは、企業の市場シェアや成長力を評価する際に重要な指標となります。

💡PayPal

PayPalは、オンライン決済サービスを提供する企業です。ビデオでは、アフィルムの創業者であるマックス・レブチンがPayPalの共同創業者であったことや、その背景が説明されています。PayPalは、アフィルムのビジネスモデルやデジタル決済の進化に影響を与えた重要な企業の一つです。

💡フィンテック (Fintech)

フィンテックは、金融サービスとテクノロジーを組み合わせた業界の総称です。ビデオでは、アフィルムがフィンテック企業であることや、その業界における位置づけが説明されています。フィンテックは、伝統的な銀行業界に新しい技術やビジネスモデルを導入し、より効率的で便利なサービスを提供することを目指しています。

💡アフィルムカード (Affirm Card)

アフィルムカードは、アフィルムが提供するクレジットカードサービスです。ビデオでは、アフィルムカードの成長やその利用状況が詳細に説明されています。アフィルムカードは、消費者が小額の支払いを簡単に行えるように設計されており、アフィルムのサービスの一環として重要な役割を果たしています。

💡マクシミリアン・レブチン (Max Levchin)

マクシミリアン・レブチンは、アフィルムの創業者であり、ビデオで彼の貢献やビジネスの歴史が触れられています。レブチンは、PayPalの共同創業者としても知られており、デジタル決済の分野で重要な役割を果たしています。

💡Earnings Call

Earnings Callは、企業が四半期ごとの業績を公開し、投資家やアナリストに説明する電話会議です。ビデオでは、アフィルムの業績発表後のEarnings Callの内容や、その重要性について説明されています。Earnings Callは、市場に情報を提供し、企業の将来性や戦略を理解する上で重要な場です。

💡Shopify

Shopifyは、オンラインストアを簡単に作成できるプラットフォームを提供する企業です。ビデオでは、アフィルムとShopifyのパートナーシップが強調されており、その成長がアフィルムの業績にも寄与していることが説明されています。Shopifyは、アフィルムのサービスをさらに広める上で重要な役割を果たしています。

Highlights

Stock is down 15% in the after-hours due to the stock having run so much in the last quarter.

The quarter was strong, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) hitting $7.5 billion and buy now, pay later volume up 32% year-over-year.

Revenue was $591 million, up 48%, and revenue less transaction cost was up 68%.

Operating income was $187 million, still in negatives, but adjusted to operating income, it was $93 million in the positive.

The company reiterated its commitment to building operating leverage without sacrificing credit performance, volume growth, or innovation.

The company has the fastest year-over-year GMV growth rate and increased funding capacity.

The Affirm card has scaled to 700,000 cards, up from 500,000, and is growing as a percentage of their business.

Analyst Dan Dolv, who covers fintech at Mizuho, has Affirm as his number one pick and believes it's a $50-$60 stock.

The company has been tightening its belt, improving efficiency, and focusing on becoming a better, more competitive firm.

Travel and ticketing grew 56% year-over-year and continued to contribute significantly to overall growth.

Active customers increased by 133% year-over-year to 17.6 million.

The company is expecting GMV of $5.8 to $6 billion and revenue of $530 to $550 for the next quarter.

The company is not expecting B2B products and international growth outside of America to be material contributors during fiscal year 2024.

The company has been managing credit very actively and has not made any major changes to its credit posture in the last year and a half.

The company's ability to become a full-service platform might attract more investors, as it moves beyond just buy now, pay later.

The company is excited about the growth opportunities with the Affirm card and has a long roadmap of features to come.

The company is not planning to allocate marketing dollars towards distributing the card in the foreseeable future.

The company's partnership with Shopify is going extraordinarily strong, with growth accelerating for the fourth consecutive quarter.

The company is managing through a rate environment that's substantially lower than the previous year, and as those conditions abate, they will begin to see the benefit.

The company's net charge-off rate ticked up slightly in the quarter, but they don't see a fundamental change in credit outcomes due to the Affirm card.

The company is focused on growing the Affirm card cautiously to ensure they can handle various conflicts that occur in commerce.

Transcripts

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ladies and gentlemen I hope we're live

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good to see you all hoping you guys are

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doing

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well immediately this caught me off

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guard so if you guys don't know a firm

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stock this is why we're all here stock

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is down 15% in the after hours right now

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it's not actually that they put out a

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bad quarter the quarter is really strong

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the problem is is that the stock had ran

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so much in the last quarter uh that that

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you know people are just sort of

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disregarding this if we even just look

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to this company uh back in October okay

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early October this stock was trading

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around the 17 to18 range now it's

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upwards of $50 a share okay so to sort

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of prove that conviction they need to

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put out a stellar quarter we're going to

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go through that right now just before

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the call uh but Max Levin who is what

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what what's so funny some people are

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saying hopefully the earnings call

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cannot be as bad as PayPal Max levchin

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is the founder of PayPal it's kind of

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funny just a little bit of history for

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you guys uh so the man of a firm also

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revolutionized and digitized payments

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online he's the original he's the

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OG um a lot of people contribute it to

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Elon Musk that's actually not true Elon

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must was starting a company called X at

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the time uh and this guy actually worked

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in the same building as him and then

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they ended up merging their two

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companies which created the PayPal Mafia

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uh but anyway that's a little bit of

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nerdy fintech news for you guys let's

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talk about this quarter so gross

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merchandise volume for the quarter hit

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7.5 billion dollar in buy out pay later

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uh you know volume up 32% year-over-year

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and these are holiday quarters okay they

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call it Q2 but these are fiscal quarters

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rather than uh

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actual you know uh quarterly times it's

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still the same although that's fiscal

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year or fiscal quarter 2 it still is

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December 31st was the end of the quarter

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uh it's just a matter of when they start

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their um their accounting anyway Revenue

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$591 million up

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48% Revenue less their transaction cost

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up 68% which actually Max Levin has a

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good uh thing that he talks on that that

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I really want to read uh operating

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income up $187 million still in uh deep

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negatives but adjusting uh to operating

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income we have 93 million in the

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positive which it was not before okay I

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want to go to a shareholder letter

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because I thought that that was really

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nice um okay I I'll touch on some of

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this stuff we just covered a lot of

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this this time last year we reiterated

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our our commitment to building operating

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leverage without sacrificing credit

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performance volume growth or innovation

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the market wasn't exactly convinced then

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but 12 months later we have done exactly

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what we said we would we hope that for

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PayPal as well now uh posting the

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fastest year-over-year gmv growth rate

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in over a year we increased our funding

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capacity and we'll talk about the

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percentage of that it's actually looking

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very positive five billion in the last

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year kept an unblinking eye on credit

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delinquencies also looked uh you know

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fine here um and continuous improvements

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on the affirm card so look at this last

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time that I actually touched on a firm

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card they were at

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500,000 cards now they're at

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700,000 okay gmv they actually have a uh

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a chart here that I was looking at look

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at how fast they're uh you know directed

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consumer gmv so this is the this is the

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affirm card look how fast this has been

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scaling as a percentage of their

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business so Dan dolv who is the uh

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analyst that covers fintex at mizuo he

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has been talking that a firm is his

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number one pick okay he thinks that this

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is a $50 $60 stock all day long and the

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reason that he believes in this is not

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only because of a firm card he thinks

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that it's going to go absolute Blitz

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scale kind of what cash app did with the

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cash app card but then through a firm's

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transition into savings accounts and

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actually taking direct deposits he

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thinks that this is going to transition

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over to a full service Financial

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Services

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platform but let's uh let's continue

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reading here I wanted to touch on some

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things as

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well so that says percentage of gmv

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where was

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um yeah why don't we talk about

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delinquencies here for a second we

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continueed to deliver strong credit

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outcomes with 30 plus day delinquencies

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for monthly installment loans flat both

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year-over-year and quarter over quarter

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that's pretty incredible considering uh

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you know the how much the market has

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changed year over year I actually think

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that's that's pretty exciting but I

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wanted to that's not what I wanted to

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touch on um was it Max Levin okay here I

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wanted to touch on this for a sec

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learning to do more uh with less made us

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a better company this is like this

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should be the statement above every

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fintech investors's uh you know above

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their workspace because this is exactly

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how all of these companies are going to

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benefit right coinbase included you know

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a bunch of a bunch of companies that

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I've been pretty critical on have really

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really tightened the belt um and as the

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sort of years go on and and macro

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lightens up and we get out of some of

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these worst conditions these will be

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tighter companies at the end so uh from

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a firm's executive leadership to our IND

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individual contributions this is the

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very best team we've had since our

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founding committed uh competent cohesive

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we will continue to be um judias

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Jud I can't read that in a growing team

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going forward calendar 20123 was the

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year of tough of tough choices and our

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ability to navigate deliberately and

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quickly improved with each decision

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we've

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made um I deeply am grateful okay that's

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just him being

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nice uh travel and ticketing grew 56%

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year-over-year and continued to be a

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meaningful contrib to overall growth

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discretionary categories that performed

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well during the pandemic such as

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sporting goods and outdoor home

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lifestyle Electronics showed signs of

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improvement but continue to be headwinds

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to our overall growth

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rate active customers increase 133%

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year-over-year to 17.6 million uh

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excluding return Le customers active uh

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I'm pretty sure by the way returnly if

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I'm if I'm not mistaken was a Shopify

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company that

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sold I got to look that up I'm I'm

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curious

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now

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[Music]

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um No Maybe I'm Wrong maybe they just

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acquired this company

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okay

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um Revenue less transaction cost grew

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68% year-over-year to $242 million or

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3.2% of gmv compared to 2.5% of gmv uh

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in fiscal Q2 2023 last

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year increased about 70 basis points

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year-over year return 3 to 4% long-term

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target

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range

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interesting okay sorry some of this I

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haven't even read yet yet just because

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uh I've been a little bit busy so um

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okay let's look at outlook for a second

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then we'll get into the earnings

play08:07

call Shopify owned 4% I think okay okay

play08:11

maybe that's where I'm getting it

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from um okay so they're expecting gmv of

play08:19

5.8 million to uh 6 million I wish I

play08:22

could bring up two different uh charts

play08:25

right here but uh 5.8 to6 million

play08:28

Revenue 530 to 550 okay now let's go

play08:32

ahead and compare that to their last

play08:35

quarterly uh results so we'll do

play08:39

this I'll share my spreadsheet really

play08:50

quick okay so gmv of five uh 5.8 billion

play08:55

to6 billion doar a little bit higher

play08:57

than q1

play08:59

um it's not going to be as high as the

play09:01

the holiday but you know potentially

play09:03

people were expecting even better than

play09:06

expected results that's why we're seeing

play09:08

such a pullback on the stock right now

play09:10

14% uh call in five minutes by the

play09:13

way uh transaction cost where's

play09:16

transaction cost here total transaction

play09:18

cost 350 million they expect 325 to

play09:23

335 uh so even higher than q1 as a

play09:26

percentage that actually is probably

play09:29

higher uh if I'm just looking at Simple

play09:32

Math here

play09:35

so

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um Revenue as a percentage of gmv is

play09:39

going to continue to climb next

play09:42

quarter

play09:44

uh oh this is for the rest of the

play09:50

year weighted average shares outstanding

play09:53

where are we right

play09:56

now no I only have stock based

play09:58

compensation

play10:00

I got to get outstanding shares on this

play10:02

chart I don't I don't follow a firm as

play10:04

close as I do like a a Sofi Technologies

play10:07

or something like

play10:13

this yeah down down 14% still

play10:18

um I'm as far as I'm as far as I'm

play10:21

concerned it's just not as such a

play10:23

disgusting beat as what it needed to be

play10:26

however um can I throw this over here

play10:28

and can okay

play10:31

perfect assumptions embedded within the

play10:35

Outlook

play10:37

uh remain 5% for the remainder of the

play10:39

Year upon Uh current forward interest

play10:42

rate curve which is embedded in our

play10:43

Outlook the year-over-year change from

play10:45

higher Benchmark rates will uh diminish

play10:48

during the remainder of the fiscal year

play10:49

and no longer be a headwind as the exit

play10:51

the fiscal year

play10:58

yeah

play10:59

uh affirm money accounts the B2B

play11:02

products and international growth

play11:03

outside of America are not expected to

play11:05

be material contributors during fiscal

play11:08

year 2024 uh so that's probably the B2B

play11:11

products that they're talking about

play11:12

International growth um a firm money

play11:15

account if I'm if I'm aware won't even

play11:17

be launching in their fiscal year which

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is in the next six months as far as I'm

play11:22

uh as far as I can

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remember these are some of the uh just

play11:27

quick notes let me just make sure I have

play11:29

the webcast actually pulled

play11:35

up yes sir yes

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sir okay I'm going to listen to a little

play11:42

bit of background noise I'm going to

play11:43

drop this music off real quick just so I

play11:45

can listen to their

play11:48

call um active accounts continue to grow

play11:52

they actually have a pretty large base

play11:54

of overall accounts of just people that

play11:56

don't use a firm quite often I think

play11:59

it's in the 40 Millions 44 million or

play12:02

something like that um but obviously not

play12:05

all of those are used all the

play12:08

time transactions per account don't be

play12:11

too deceived by this like if you guys

play12:13

saw on my spreadsheet uh the the average

play12:17

transaction size actually continues to

play12:19

go down which is perfectly okay but it's

play12:23

just a transition from um you know their

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uh you know affirm as a main checkout

play12:31

button to the affirm card making smaller

play12:34

purchases potentially you know uh buy

play12:36

now pay lering your freaking coffee in

play12:39

the

play12:44

morning bear with

play12:46

[Music]

play12:49

me uh this is actually what I did think

play12:51

was very uh very interesting so in terms

play12:54

of them ring running a tighter ship they

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have been doing that for sure including

play13:00

stock based compensation I hope that

play13:01

there's a a a chart on that I was I was

play13:04

charting it out on my own it's it

play13:06

continues to drop it was pretty high so

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I think it's still at

play13:09

15% um they call it share based payment

play13:18

expense yeah well this is also

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including yeah that that's this is the

play13:24

full account but I was just looking at

play13:26

their own employee expenses which is

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kind of hard to determine just looking

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within here but it is actually dropping

play13:32

quarter over quarter so it's at the

play13:35

lowest percentage of Revenue that

play13:36

they've had since they've been a

play13:39

company I think it's 15% last quarter

play13:42

was like 22%

play13:47

however okay

play13:52

interesting yeah like like I'm looking

play13:54

at their their delinquencies and you're

play13:57

not actually seeing anything that's like

play14:00

too crazy compared to even whenever

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you're looking at Rising delinquencies

play14:04

versus uh you know Sofi or another one

play14:08

of these you know personal lenders this

play14:11

is pretty consistent on a on a quarter

play14:13

over quarter basis it's actually uh

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pretty exciting to

play14:21

see funding capacity is is you know

play14:25

pretty decent 69% comparatively to you

play14:28

know some of these other companies that

play14:30

we look at that

play14:31

are much more deployed than they are

play14:34

that's for

play14:42

sure yeah

play14:49

wow

play14:52

okay how many of you guys by the way how

play14:54

many are actually in a firm uh and where

play14:58

do you see that stock going because I am

play15:00

not uh I am not invested in this

play15:03

company their ability to become a full

play15:05

service platform might get me in there

play15:08

because it's you know an area that I

play15:10

know much much more but buy now pay

play15:12

later on its own is not something that I

play15:14

think is sustainable for for a firm and

play15:16

I think that companies like PayPal will

play15:18

do much

play15:27

better

play15:31

yeah and also what's funny is like I I I

play15:34

use a firm I have like you know uh use

play15:37

them a couple times but if there's ever

play15:39

any amount that is REM like even if it

play15:41

has 1% interest I won't touch

play15:45

it if they do offer a Zer perc then then

play15:48

I like it it's fine

play15:50

but not if they're trying to charge any

play15:53

interest this is unbelievable though

play15:55

this I think is like the very exciting

play15:58

thing is is how big can this affirm card

play16:00

actually get will they bring it to

play16:02

Canada that's the one thing that AFF

play16:03

firm's done very differently than a lot

play16:05

of other fintechs they've been very

play16:06

positive in Canada too

play16:10

so a firm is in most retail

play16:16

stores stock is down uh just

play16:19

12.6% now um one thing that I do like is

play16:24

I do find that the uh the earnings calls

play16:26

are very informative

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oh we got the call coming in now I will

play16:36

switch over right right

play16:40

now we will open the lines for your

play16:44

questions as a reminder this conference

play16:46

call is being recorded and a replay of

play16:47

the call will be available on our

play16:49

investor relations website for a

play16:50

reasonable period of time after the call

play16:53

I'd now like to turn the call over to

play16:55

Zan ker director investor relations

play16:58

thank you you you may

play17:00

begin thank you operator before we begin

play17:03

I would like to remind everyone

play17:04

listening that today's call may contain

play17:06

forward looking statements these

play17:08

forward-looking statements are subject

play17:09

to numerous risks and uncertainties

play17:11

including those set forth on our filings

play17:13

with the SEC which are available on our

play17:15

investor relations

play17:17

website actual results May differ

play17:19

materially from any forward-looking

play17:20

statements that we make today these

play17:22

forward-looking statements speak only as

play17:24

of today and the company does not assume

play17:26

any obligation or intent to update them

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except as required by

play17:30

law in addition today's call may include

play17:33

non-gaap Financial measures these

play17:35

measures should be considered as a

play17:36

supplement to and not a substitute for

play17:39

Gap Financial

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measures for historical non-gaap

play17:43

Financial measures reconciliations to

play17:44

the most directly comparable Gap

play17:46

measures can be found in our earnings

play17:48

supplement slide deck which is available

play17:50

on our investor relations

play17:53

website hosting today's call with me are

play17:55

Max lein a firm's founder and chief

play17:57

executive officer and Michael lenford

play17:59

the firm's Chief Financial

play18:02

Officer in line with our practice in

play18:04

Prior quarters we will begin with brief

play18:06

opening remarks from Max before

play18:08

proceeding immediately into questions

play18:09

and answers on that note I will turn the

play18:12

call over to Max to

play18:14

begin thank you Zane thank you all for

play18:17

joining us today we're excited to share

play18:19

the results from another great quarter

play18:21

as is our custom the better the results

play18:23

the fewer words we used to comment on

play18:25

them this time around I feel good enough

play18:27

to go directly to the Q&A back

play18:30

Tu thank you Max with that we will now

play18:33

take your questions operator please open

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the line for our first

play18:38

question thank you we will now be

play18:40

conducting a question and answer session

play18:42

if you would like to ask a question

play18:44

please press star one on your telephone

play18:46

keypad the confirmation to will indicate

play18:48

that your line is in the question q and

play18:51

you may press star two if You' like to

play18:52

remove your question from the queue for

play18:55

participants using speaker equipment it

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may be necessary to pick up your hand

play18:58

handset before pressing the star Keys

play19:01

our first question comes from the line

play19:03

of Ramsey elsol with Barclays please

play19:06

proceed with your question hi thanks for

play19:09

taking my question this evening um I was

play19:11

wondering if you could help us think

play19:13

through rltc for the remaining Q

play19:16

quarters of the Year sort of what of the

play19:18

drivers puts takes variables that could

play19:21

impact rltc and uh you know drive

play19:23

underperformance or outperformance you

play19:25

know how should we think about those

play19:27

kind of variables

play19:30

yeah I think you know obviously um if

play19:33

you're thinking in terms of percentage

play19:35

of gmv there's there's a number of

play19:36

factors mix and macro at the top of the

play19:39

list if you're thinking about total

play19:41

dollars then gmv on the platform was

play19:44

going to be the biggest driver um of of

play19:48

results there um in terms of the rltc

play19:51

rate the the take rate on a percentage

play19:53

of gmv it's really mix and macro so the

play19:57

the mix of business across our Merchant

play19:58

basee and um and the products that we

play20:02

offer there and from a macro perspective

play20:05

everything going on with consumers and

play20:06

rates would would be there we really

play20:08

like the environment we're in right now

play20:10

um that's why we've updated our full

play20:12

year guidance like we have so we feel

play20:15

good about the back half of year rltc

play20:18

margins uh as a percentage of gmv and

play20:21

and feel good about that because of the

play20:22

of the macro environment that we're in

play20:24

um we as as per the usual we take the

play20:27

current macro signals current levels of

play20:29

unemployment current forward curve and

play20:31

bake those into our assumptions um but

play20:34

obviously there's scenarios where those

play20:36

could could move one way or the other

play20:37

that would change the outcome for

play20:39

us okay and um a followup from me on

play20:43

slide 10 where you list out your gmv

play20:45

vertical mix it looks like general

play20:48

merchandise is picked up quite a bit and

play20:50

Tra you know from travel and ticketing

play20:52

or travel and ticketing has has gone

play20:53

down and and General Merchandise gone up

play20:56

are there any drivers to call out there

play20:58

and I guess more broadly can you just

play21:00

comment on performance across you know

play21:02

key verticals in

play21:04

there so so travel and ticketing is a

play21:08

very seasonal category um so a lot of

play21:10

folks book um summer vacation travel and

play21:14

the first two calendar quarters last two

play21:16

fiscal quarters of our year and it tends

play21:18

to be lowest in terms of bookings in

play21:21

calendar quarters like Q2 and so we

play21:24

think there's a huge seasonality Factor

play21:26

um there and for general merchandise you

play21:28

know some of our largest Merchant

play21:29

Enterprise Partners fall in that bucket

play21:31

and as we continue to scale those we we

play21:33

will see lots of purchases there and

play21:35

it's not unusual for that to be a

play21:36

category that spikes in around holiday

play21:38

season as a lot of holiday shopping is

play21:39

done in those

play21:41

channels got it makes perfect sense

play21:43

thank

play21:46

you thank you our next question comes

play21:49

from the line of Andrew Jeffrey with

play21:51

truest Securities please proceed with

play21:53

your

play21:54

question hi appreciate you taking the

play21:56

question Max uh brevity is indeed the

play21:59

sister of talent make that very clear uh

play22:03

so uh I've got a couple questions just

play22:06

on gmv growth and and uh tender share um

play22:11

as I recall uh you tightened the credit

play22:14

Box about a year ago and and and

play22:17

obviously the the back half of the

play22:19

fiscal year looks looks strong can you

play22:21

comment EI either Max or Michael just on

play22:24

kind of how underwriting and and risk

play22:28

are factoring into that strength and

play22:29

then the the coral are I guess or the

play22:31

foll on would be around uh tender share

play22:34

your Enterprise customers and it was it

play22:36

it appeared to be elevated during the

play22:38

holidays and I just wonder if that's a

play22:39

sign of accelerating tender share to

play22:41

come or aspirational Tender share

play22:46

grow um appreciate the compliment first

play22:49

of all um

play22:52

the

play22:54

underwriting

play22:56

settings so single

play22:59

most I would say accelerated change

play23:01

we've conducted to our as they call it

play23:05

box was really more of a year and a half

play23:07

ago than a year ago April of 22 is when

play23:10

we saw real stress on a consumer and we

play23:13

reacted to that sort of within the next

play23:15

60 days or so

play23:18

um we've since really not done an

play23:21

enormous amount of significance steering

play23:25

we change marginal cut off on a merchant

play23:28

by Merchant category by category product

play23:31

by product basis all the time and also

play23:34

change things

play23:36

like allowed terms uh as in durations um

play23:42

required down payments Etc so we we

play23:44

managed credit very very actively since

play23:48

the beginning of time for us but there's

play23:50

not been a major change to our posture

play23:54

in the last year and a

play23:56

half

play23:58

the numbers that we printed just now are

play24:01

not an accident we we drove them to be

play24:04

what they are very very

play24:06

deliberately and I don't want anybody to

play24:09

sort of assume that you know we're we're

play24:12

hands off and the numbers just print

play24:14

themselves like it's a lot of work and

play24:16

we care quite a lot where they end up we

play24:19

have a certain expectations we set with

play24:21

capital markets and we intend to

play24:22

continue delivering those expectations

play24:24

and so that that that's first and

play24:26

foremost and that that governs a lot of

play24:28

our metrics as outut to that the tender

play24:33

share um share wallet as we call in

play24:36

internally has done really well over the

play24:38

holidays um we've generally been gaining

play24:42

wall here

play24:43

although the stories are different

play24:46

category to category uh and some cases

play24:49

Merchant to

play24:50

Merchant feel very good about some of

play24:53

the things that we announced obviously

play24:55

offline we were not a noticeable player

play24:58

until recently and between the card and

play25:00

some of the um online offline self

play25:04

checkout kiosks was really powerful uh

play25:07

and

play25:09

then just sort of call out one

play25:12

particularly strong performance over the

play25:14

holidays especially and overall in the

play25:17

last quarter Shopify has just continued

play25:19

to perform extraordinarily uh the growth

play25:22

of that particular partnership is

play25:26

accelerating three plus years into the

play25:28

partnership U that set of products grew

play25:32

about twice the speed of the rest of a

play25:35

firm so it's just been you know story of

play25:38

success to success and we still have a

play25:40

lot of things that we have not scaled

play25:42

out they have their own offline

play25:43

aspirations that we're obviously very

play25:45

excited to be a part of Etc and so it's

play25:47

a little bit of a and I'm giving a very

play25:49

long-winded answer here but uh you know

play25:51

frequency for us is being where consumer

play25:55

shops and Sheriff tender comes as a

play25:59

consequence of being available and being

play26:00

able to support the the various consumer

play26:03

needs that as we encounter them and the

play26:06

only thing I'd add is is we did um with

play26:09

the 36% APR caps that we were able to

play26:11

get in place we were able to be more

play26:13

expansionary in a number of places that

play26:16

that is completely done now and so we

play26:18

wouldn't expect any more volume benefit

play26:20

there although there is still some

play26:23

margin benefit we think that will come

play26:25

um as the program continues to roll out

play26:27

and scale but we wouldn't expect any

play26:29

more volume there because of

play26:32

36 thank you appreciate

play26:37

it thank you our next question comes

play26:40

from the line of Reggie Smith was JP

play26:42

Morgan please proceed with your

play26:45

question yeah good afternoon and

play26:47

congrats um on the quarter I guess um

play26:51

you kept your comments short but I guess

play26:53

where where were you most surprised um

play26:55

this was a pretty big be um and then had

play27:00

a followup after

play27:03

that um we try to run a tight chip so uh

play27:07

surprises are rarely a welcome thing if

play27:09

they are to the good um I think I mean I

play27:13

already called it out but I thought

play27:15

Shopify as a company appears to have

play27:17

done a fantastic job with their product

play27:20

and we stand to support our partners

play27:22

there and have done well

play27:24

together

play27:26

um let's see what other

play27:32

surprises don't like surprises Reggie

play27:35

feel like anytime somebody surprises me

play27:37

there I'm not gonna like the uh the

play27:39

outcome um actually I I'll give you one

play27:42

very surprising fact which is a little

play27:43

bit of an inside uh inside view but we

play27:47

had very noticeably accelerated our

play27:49

ability to ship software and I had

play27:52

anticipated some of that but I'm quite

play27:56

surprised but how productive the team

play27:57

have been on the engineering side on

play27:59

product side on design side you know

play28:01

sort percolates down to revenue so

play28:05

generally

play28:06

speaking I expected that we would rally

play28:11

around the goals especially from sort of

play28:14

the the low point of this time last year

play28:17

but the you know if it's a turnaround

play28:20

it's a much faster and more aggressive

play28:22

turnaround than I myself

play28:24

expected got it and then just looking at

play28:27

the seasonal patterns of your your

play28:29

margins the the back half of the Year

play28:31

tends to be better than the front half

play28:33

of the year and when I look at your your

play28:34

full year guidance for your operating

play28:37

margin I guess it implies um and even

play28:39

third quarter I think it implies a

play28:41

pretty substantial sequential increase

play28:43

in and expenses below the rlcc line like

play28:46

what um what's driving that and kind of

play28:49

where should we see that show up is it a

play28:51

marketing thing is it technology um my

play28:55

rough math was almost like 20 million

play28:57

and a sequential increase there I'm not

play28:58

sure if that's uh right or not but if

play29:01

you can comment on that a little bit

play29:02

that would be uh

play29:04

helpful yeah we don't provide a specific

play29:06

guidance number for there so sometimes

play29:09

the the way in which we build our

play29:10

guidance can can lead to a little bit of

play29:13

um uh exaggeration on that on as you

play29:16

calculate it but but that's right and

play29:19

there's there's couple factors to think

play29:21

about firstly we and this this will

play29:25

sound very trivial but I promise you it

play29:26

does actually

play29:27

end up becoming pretty big we do expect

play29:30

there to be a lot more payroll tax

play29:31

associated with stock-based compensation

play29:33

in our first quarter both because people

play29:35

have reset their tax obligations to um

play29:39

with the new year but also because the

play29:41

share price is higher and both those two

play29:43

things will create a little bit of the

play29:45

sequential uh bump from quarter to

play29:47

quarter and then we remain really

play29:49

excited about the opportunities that are

play29:50

ahead for us and so we're continuing to

play29:52

be thoughtful around where we should be

play29:54

adding resources to go build new

play29:56

products and Chase the new opportunities

play29:59

and I think the strength in this

play30:02

quarter's results um with respect to our

play30:04

united economics and operating

play30:06

efficiency give us license to to be

play30:08

willing to add a little operating

play30:09

expense whereas I think we've been very

play30:11

cautious to do that until we could

play30:12

demonstrate

play30:16

it um congratulations great

play30:18

quarter thank

play30:21

you thank you our next question comes

play30:24

from the line of Dan Dove with mizuo

play30:27

please proceed with your

play30:29

question hey guys uh great results uh

play30:33

congrats Max and uh Mike and the team

play30:36

quick question I have two questions the

play30:38

one first one is on the guide obviously

play30:40

the knee-jerk reaction uh which we

play30:43

disagree with was that the gmv guide is

play30:46

conservative you you know you quote

play30:48

unquote beat by 700 million you're you

play30:51

know increasing the guide by a billion

play30:54

for gmv like you sound very upbeat about

play30:57

the the macro is it just

play31:01

conservatism yeah I mean just like we

play31:03

have all year long for the full year

play31:06

we're only providing a floor for our

play31:08

full year guide and so we did take our

play31:12

floor up by a billion dollars which we

play31:15

think is a pretty pretty big step up in

play31:17

what we would expect for the year we

play31:19

remain very upbeat and excited about the

play31:23

opportunity got it yeah I know that's

play31:26

that's what it seems like and then maybe

play31:28

one other question on kind of the direct

play31:30

deposit opportunity you know you've had

play31:32

tremendous success with the card can you

play31:34

maybe talk a little bit about what

play31:36

you're seeing in terms of the usage and

play31:39

frequency for the people that are um

play31:42

doing the direct deposit into the card

play31:45

or into the affirm

play31:47

app a little early uh we we gave the the

play31:51

feature in name uh about 60 something

play31:54

days ago so it's a little early to uh to

play31:57

brag about the results but uh feel very

play31:59

good about it uh

play32:01

it's it's it's done in the early early

play32:04

versions that it is about as well as we

play32:07

could hope for um we have a lot more

play32:10

things coming for that product working

play32:12

on a couple of very specific things that

play32:14

are just required before you can really

play32:16

call yourself an account uh but feel

play32:20

great uh it it's definitely uh and I

play32:23

think I mentioned this before but

play32:25

there's kind of three stages of a firm

play32:27

usage if you are a not card holder not

play32:31

account holder regular user your

play32:33

frequencies four and a half transactions

play32:35

a year grew again you know 20 plus

play32:37

percent year on year but um if you have

play32:40

a card that goes up quite a lot goes up

play32:42

about 4X and then it grows again again

play32:46

fairly significantly if you are an

play32:48

account holder so very excited to give

play32:50

more accounts to people because that's

play32:52

ultimately a frequency driver for us as

play32:55

well got it well sounds like a huge

play32:58

opportunity and congrats again

play33:03

than our next question comes from the

play33:05

line of Rob wildpack with autonomous

play33:08

research please proceed with your

play33:11

question hey guys uh maybe I'll ask a

play33:15

question on volume um in a different way

play33:17

you know I think the shareholder letter

play33:18

called out three quarters of

play33:20

accelerating volume growth and then

play33:22

within the December quarter each month

play33:23

accelerated to the updated outlook for

play33:26

the rest of the year seems to point to a

play33:28

pretty healthy slowdown in the second

play33:31

half you know half over half so wanted

play33:34

to get your thoughts on what might be

play33:35

driving that slowdown if there's

play33:36

anything specific that you're

play33:39

seeing so again I think the the F year

play33:43

outlook for us is is is just a a floor

play33:47

and so we've not given even a range or a

play33:49

ceiling to where we'd expect so any

play33:51

calculation being done on Q4 is probably

play33:54

not getting to a midpoint and and any

play33:57

math you're doing on that number

play33:59

inclusive of our Q3 range is is taking

play34:03

is is probably squeezing that number uh

play34:05

quite a

play34:06

bit separate from that we had a really

play34:08

good Q2 right and so the really strong

play34:11

second quarter um isn't something that

play34:14

we would ever take and say that's a

play34:15

fundamental change in the business

play34:16

that's something we would take credit

play34:18

for be very happy with but we'd be

play34:20

pretty cautious about how we would build

play34:22

up the outlook for the balance of the

play34:24

year and want to be mindful of all of

play34:27

the factors that can go into that um but

play34:30

there's nothing in our business that

play34:32

would suggest that we're slowing down

play34:34

right

play34:37

now okay thanks and then your picture

play34:39

and appreciate this may not be in play

play34:41

for this fiscal year but how would you

play34:43

expect potential interest rate cuts to

play34:46

flow through to funding costs and then

play34:48

strategically you know would you want to

play34:49

drop those savings to the bottom line

play34:52

via higher rltc margin or do something

play34:54

different that's a great question so so

play34:57

uh when whenever we we think about a

play35:00

change in rates we we need to understand

play35:02

why the rates are moving um certainly if

play35:05

the rates are moving in response to

play35:07

other stress in the economy specifically

play35:09

employment then it's not a one forone

play35:11

benefit but if you hold all other

play35:13

factors constant then a decline in rates

play35:15

would would help us on the rltc line um

play35:19

we we would seek to continue to run the

play35:21

business in the 3 to 4% range that we've

play35:23

talked about really since we've gone

play35:24

public and if we were a to be earning at

play35:27

the high end or above that we would seek

play35:29

to reinvest that in uh products to

play35:31

engage and re-engage acquire new users

play35:33

and re-engage

play35:36

them okay thanks

play35:40

guys thank you our next question comes

play35:43

from the line of Jason copperberg with

play35:46

Bank of America please proceed with your

play35:49

question thank you um so you highlighted

play35:52

in the shareholder letter I think uh

play35:53

about 2third of the revenue growth in

play35:55

the quarter was from interest interest

play35:57

income um is it fair to say that's also

play35:59

the revenue line item that surprised you

play36:01

most to the upside relative to your

play36:03

guidance and just curious how much of

play36:05

the revenue guidance range for the

play36:07

fiscal years coming from the interest

play36:10

income line you guys have obviously been

play36:12

doing a really good job um you know on

play36:14

that side of of the

play36:16

equation no I I um certainly we're we're

play36:20

happy to have the unit economics we do

play36:22

have but I think we were probably more

play36:23

surprised with the healthy Merchant fee

play36:26

growth when never Merchant fees outpace

play36:28

gmv growth it creates a pretty good flow

play36:31

through to the full p&l in a way that's

play36:33

outsized so I think some of the the

play36:35

strong performance we had above our

play36:36

expectations around rltc and the flow

play36:39

through for the full p&l was actually

play36:41

driven by the really healthy Merchant

play36:42

fee

play36:44

line yes the total aggregate Revenue

play36:47

growth wasn't there but remember against

play36:49

that interest income growth is a pretty

play36:51

steep rise in funding cost um and that's

play36:53

driven by both the balance sheet growth

play36:55

as well as the higher Benchmark rate

play36:56

rates that we in this year and in fact

play36:58

interest funding costs grew faster than

play37:01

interest income and so while that was

play37:03

important for us to be able to get the

play37:04

business where it is it's also the case

play37:06

that um we don't see that as the real

play37:08

Tailwind here we're we're still managing

play37:10

through a a rate environment that's

play37:13

substantially lower last year than this

play37:15

year and as those things Abate then we

play37:17

will begin to see the benefit of that

play37:19

into the

play37:20

future okay no that makes sense and then

play37:23

um just like a two-part question on on

play37:25

gmv what's your latest expectation for a

play37:28

firm card gmv this this fiscal year and

play37:31

then any comments you might have around

play37:33

um January gmv Trends I'm kind of

play37:35

curious because we heard from others

play37:37

that card present volumes suffered

play37:39

because of the severe weather so just

play37:41

wondering if your business benefited at

play37:43

all from that thank

play37:44

you so we've we've not given any outlook

play37:47

for the card and and I won't now what I

play37:51

would say in the letter we talked

play37:53

briefly about the seasonality of the car

play37:55

and I think this is a really important

play37:56

thing

play37:58

for uh everybody to pay attention to

play38:00

which is the the card had really strong

play38:03

growth from um q1 to Q2 we would

play38:07

estimate that about half of that growth

play38:09

in card volume was actually underlying

play38:10

seasonality and the other half was

play38:12

growth in the card which just means as

play38:15

you think through where the volume

play38:16

should be for the card the balance of

play38:17

the year just keep in mind the the Q2

play38:20

starting point is benefited by a pretty

play38:22

big step up from q1 to Q2 from a

play38:25

seasonality as consumers do spend more

play38:27

in the holiday season and and we're

play38:30

we're still early enough with the card

play38:33

fortunately we're not seeing things like

play38:34

WEA impact our card

play38:43

performance thank you our next question

play38:46

comes from the line of Jill Shay with

play38:47

ubf please proceed with your

play38:50

question good evening thanks for taking

play38:52

the question I was wondering if you

play38:55

could provide us an update on on the

play38:56

Shopify partnership and any stats that

play38:59

you could share with us that would be

play39:00

great

play39:02

thanks it's uh one of the highlights of

play39:06

this last quarter is going unbelievably

play39:09

strong um it accelerated for the fourth

play39:12

consecutive quarter um the program is

play39:15

over three years old and the fact that

play39:16

it's still picking up steam is just

play39:18

great and they've been extraordinary

play39:20

Partners to us

play39:21

and nothing but wonderful things to say

play39:23

about Toby and KAS and and Harley and

play39:25

the entire team there and they're

play39:26

they're just

play39:26

than nothing but excellent in both their

play39:29

execution and the partnership that we

play39:31

had uh I think I already dropped that

play39:33

stat but uh the program at Shopify grew

play39:36

twice the speed of the overall affirm

play39:38

growth on gmv side of things um they

play39:41

have aspirations Offline that they're

play39:43

going after quite strongly and there a

play39:44

lot of synergies and what we're doing

play39:46

now there we have a whole host of

play39:49

programs we're contemplating going

play39:50

forward so lots of wood to chop feeling

play39:54

very good the fact that it's

play39:55

accelerating suggests that this just

play39:57

more more growth to be had for for both

play39:58

of us this is a Shopify earnings call I

play40:01

swear very helpful thank

play40:07

you thank you our next question comes

play40:10

from the line of James faucet with

play40:12

Morgan Stanley please proceed with your

play40:14

question my second largest holding I

play40:16

don't care great thank you very much um

play40:19

this afternoon guys for for all the time

play40:22

I wanted to ask on 0% promotions uh it

play40:26

seemed like at least anecdotally those

play40:28

increase some um particularly towards

play40:31

the end of the December quarter and I

play40:32

think in your supplements you showed

play40:35

that 0% long uh duration um Merchant

play40:40

rates had had picked up you talk a

play40:42

little bit about like what's driving

play40:45

that Merchant rate tick up is it just

play40:47

longer duration generally within within

play40:50

that long group and how should we think

play40:52

about that both in terms of impact on

play40:54

rltc margin but also so just in terms of

play40:58

the um type of customer and and that

play41:01

you're bringing in with those promotions

play41:03

just wondering if if that's enough to

play41:04

move the needle on on some of these

play41:06

other

play41:07

metrics yes that's a good question the

play41:11

you know as rates have gone up any of

play41:13

our longer term 0% programs um have

play41:16

needed higher Merchant fees and I really

play41:19

think there's really not much more to it

play41:21

than that so it's the mix and and tied

play41:23

The Benchmark rates in terms of the

play41:25

customers we bring in it does skew a

play41:27

little bit higher on the credit Spectrum

play41:30

when you do those kind of products but

play41:32

given the high levels of repeat it's not

play41:34

really going to change the average as

play41:37

much at a firm um we of course have been

play41:41

we're very active we're meeting our

play41:43

Merchant Partners where we could in

play41:45

providing anything promotionally in the

play41:47

second quarter and we' continue to do

play41:49

that but it's it didn't change an awful

play41:52

lot from the prior quarter in terms of

play41:53

its total mix so wouldn't don't really

play41:55

think there's a fundamental

play41:58

there got it got it and then wanted to

play42:01

ask maybe it's a little bit convoluted

play42:03

question but you're you're obviously

play42:05

growing the affirm card really nicely um

play42:08

you know kind of that run rate that you

play42:10

talked about seems to be around 100,000

play42:12

cards a quarter or I'm sorry a month how

play42:16

should we think about is

play42:18

a I'm wondering how we should think

play42:20

about the

play42:21

availability or the credit pool

play42:24

available and how that's growing by

play42:26

comparison right because as you send out

play42:28

cards people will use it you said most

play42:30

of it of that is interest bearing so

play42:33

some of that available credit gets

play42:34

absorbed but then there's new credit

play42:37

growth in that pool as you add more

play42:39

cards so just how should we think about

play42:41

that that potential to buy pool growing

play42:44

Visa the the growth in cards hopefully

play42:47

that question makes

play42:49

sense I'm going to try to answer but

play42:51

feel free to tell me that I'm answering

play42:52

their wrong question James um so I think

play42:55

you're asking I guess the way I'm

play42:58

interpreting this or at least try to

play42:59

answer is does the

play43:02

card availability to

play43:04

Consumers create new pools available

play43:07

transactions for us to take on and the

play43:10

answer is

play43:12

yes yeah so our offline usage with the

play43:15

card versus without the card is

play43:18

drastically different and so all of

play43:20

those transactions are entirely

play43:21

incremental you know it's not really all

play43:22

that magical why transactions of the

play43:26

card holders are significantly higher

play43:29

than average transactions for nonc card

play43:31

holder from User it's because these

play43:33

people are first of all they're more

play43:34

committed because they they requested a

play43:35

card and two they're bringing it to

play43:38

stores so it it's it it just touches a

play43:42

larger open field of opportunity um in

play43:46

terms of underwriting and sort of you

play43:48

know our exposure and a credit side Etc

play43:51

there's no change in a sense that we and

play43:53

we talked about this before but for for

play43:55

the longest time our sort of calling

play43:56

card in the uh underwriting world was

play44:00

this thing called ITX which is the

play44:01

internal transactional firm credit score

play44:04

and uh that allowed us to do really

play44:07

precise underw writing at the

play44:08

transactional level some number of

play44:09

quarters ago we have augmented that with

play44:13

a user credit score which allows us to

play44:15

underwrite both sort of a more holistic

play44:17

consumer in addition to every individual

play44:19

transaction we still underwrite every

play44:20

transaction we still reserve the right

play44:21

to say we cannot lend money to you but

play44:24

we have a score that we feel very good

play44:27

about in our ability to say you know

play44:29

what's the overall capacity to borrow

play44:31

and pay us back and willingness to do so

play44:34

and we lend on the card and off the card

play44:39

using the same set of scores and the

play44:40

same set of variables and limits and so

play44:42

you can borrow from a firm using an

play44:44

integrating Point of Sales solution you

play44:45

can borrow on the card with two

play44:48

different modalities of borrowing on a

play44:49

card but all of it goes against the same

play44:51

set of variables and same set of

play44:53

observed behaviors that governs our

play44:54

ability to approve the next transaction

play44:56

the thing that's great about the card is

play44:58

that it's optimized for convenience

play45:01

everything like multi-on checkout

play45:02

environments all the way to um online

play45:04

shopping so it's an expansion of

play45:06

opportunity but not an expansion of uh

play45:09

our willingness to take on more risk I

play45:13

think that answers it but I'm happy to

play45:14

provide lots more details if feel like

play45:16

one I think the other thing to say is I

play45:17

don't think we're anywhere near the

play45:19

limits on what we think um we would

play45:22

think about exposure limits for these

play45:23

users and and we're nowhere near some

play45:24

sort of cap there for the population we

play45:26

think there's a lot of frequency that we

play45:27

can drive with the existing

play45:31

users yeah great great appreciate that

play45:34

Max thanks

play45:37

Michael thank you our next question

play45:40

comes from the line of John hect with

play45:42

Jeff please proceed with your

play45:45

question afternoon guys thanks for

play45:47

taking my questions like just thinking

play45:49

about kind of the appetite for selling

play45:52

versus retaining um you know the loans

play45:55

that you guys generate this year I mean

play45:57

you you have interest rate at least the

play45:59

the curve is going down it looks like

play46:01

sale execution is is getting better but

play46:05

you guys had an ABS transaction I think

play46:07

yesterday and the execution there was

play46:09

good so how do we just think about kind

play46:11

of balance sheet uh movement versus

play46:14

Marketplace movement over the course of

play46:16

the year yeah thanks for the question so

play46:20

we did price uh an ABS deal and we did

play46:23

so um at an all-in cost Capital 100

play46:26

basis points lower than a deal we we did

play46:29

in December so in a very short period of

play46:31

time you're seeing the market really

play46:33

give us credit for that um and that we

play46:37

think is a really healthy sign for the

play46:38

capital system and ecosystem overall um

play46:43

and we think is a reflection of both uh

play46:46

an improved macro outlook for everybody

play46:48

but for us more specifically the

play46:50

disciplined approach to credit that

play46:52

we've taken over the past year is is

play46:54

getting valued uh we we think in the

play46:57

debt Capital markets and so we feel very

play46:59

strong about that when we do the

play47:01

revolving ABS deals like the one we just

play47:02

did our 24a a deal those do end up on

play47:05

the balance sheet um and so while we do

play47:09

think about that as um and a really

play47:12

important funding Channel it isn't off

play47:14

balance sheet our off balance sheet

play47:17

strategies involve mostly selling Whole

play47:19

loans although we do some some

play47:21

non-revolving some term

play47:23

securization with respect to the whole

play47:25

loan sale we feel really excited about

play47:27

both the existing Partners expanding and

play47:29

the pipeline of new opportunities that

play47:31

we have um those conversations um have

play47:34

gone very well I think very consistent

play47:36

with the reaction that the ABS Market

play47:37

has had There's real value being given

play47:39

to us for the the kind of credit

play47:42

outcomes that we've driven and frankly

play47:45

the yield that we've put into the asset

play47:47

has allowed us to continue to to be able

play47:49

to sell at at prices that are really

play47:52

good for us um as is always the case and

play47:54

we've said since day one we don't have

play47:56

one strategy that's better than the

play47:58

other the things that we do are first

play48:00

and foremost enable the growth in the

play48:02

business and I'm extremely proud of the

play48:04

way the team has been able to support

play48:06

the capital program over the past year

play48:08

through all the volatility remaining you

play48:10

know enabling all the growth that we've

play48:12

delivered the second priority is to

play48:14

deliver our our unit economics clearly

play48:16

if we're renting in the three to four

play48:18

percent range like we did this past

play48:20

quarter we feel very strong about that

play48:22

and then we begin to want to manage the

play48:23

capital efficiency of the program that's

play48:25

the third piece and obviously whole loan

play48:28

sales are more efficient um but it's the

play48:31

third of the three priorities and so we

play48:33

wouldn't really want to overuse that

play48:35

lever um and then the last last comment

play48:37

is each of our Capital strategies really

play48:40

exist and reinforce one another and so

play48:43

um you really won't see us pivot to one

play48:46

or the other we're going to continue to

play48:48

scale all of our channels that means

play48:50

continued ABS execution continued

play48:53

forward flow and continued use of our

play48:55

warehouse

play48:57

lines okay my other question was asked

play49:00

and answered and I appreciate the callor

play49:01

thanks very

play49:05

much our next question comes from the

play49:07

line of Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler

play49:09

please proceed with your

play49:11

question thanks for taking my questions

play49:13

um you know I so there was a little bit

play49:15

of a tick up in the net charge off rate

play49:18

in the quarter um it seems like you

play49:19

built reserves last quarter that may

play49:22

have preempted the charge off coming

play49:24

through um or could be partially

play49:26

seasonality as well um is there anything

play49:29

to point out there and would you expect

play49:31

that charge off to drift lower just

play49:33

given you're seeing a larger portion of

play49:37

gmv being driven by a firm card

play49:42

thanks no I don't think the card is

play49:45

going to drive different credit outcomes

play49:47

for the whole portfolio I think the

play49:49

level of repeat usage might where you do

play49:51

see better credit outcomes on repeat

play49:53

users overall but I don't think the card

play49:56

is big enough really to affect the total

play49:58

portfolio numbers yet um obviously when

play50:01

it gets much larger um it will begin to

play50:04

have a more material impact but for now

play50:06

I think it's small enough um and yeah

play50:08

there there's really nothing nothing to

play50:10

point to specifically on the the charge

play50:13

offs you know again think about our

play50:14

charge off policy we charge off at 120

play50:16

days the linqu once they get to past 60

play50:20

or 90 days are are overwhelmingly likely

play50:22

to go towards charge off so we have a

play50:24

pretty good sense of that full allowance

play50:26

at all times to handle the future charge

play50:28

offs that we

play50:31

estimate I think you mentioned that you

play50:33

were um leaning in a little bit last

play50:36

quarter are you you know opening up the

play50:39

credit box to attract more users it

play50:41

seems like it's an opportune time to do

play50:44

that just given your acceleration here

play50:45

and profitability that that's being

play50:48

generated yeah I think the the strong

play50:50

units give us permission to do that more

play50:52

than anything so we talk about 3 to

play50:54

four% in the revenu less transaction

play50:56

cost as a percent of gmv that's the real

play50:59

constraint for us and so if we're if

play51:01

we're in that range we can continue to

play51:03

be very aggressive about acquiring and

play51:05

re-engaging new users um and and that's

play51:08

that's really the constraint much more

play51:10

so than anything

play51:11

else thank

play51:15

you thank you as a reminder if you would

play51:19

like to ask a question please press star

play51:21

one on your telephone keypad our next

play51:24

question comes from the line Michael ING

play51:26

with Goldman Sachs please proceed with

play51:28

your

play51:29

question hey good afternoon uh thanks

play51:31

for the question I just have two uh

play51:34

first a housekeeping question um could

play51:38

you just help explain the uptick in the

play51:40

merchant uh fee rates for the uh Long

play51:44

Core zeros and you know are there any

play51:47

initiatives or mixed dynamics that may

play51:50

affect that going forward and then

play51:52

second um just a a bigger picture

play51:55

question you know transactions per

play51:58

active have obviously been growing you

play52:00

know 4.4 this last quarter you're also

play52:03

seeing you know really strong repeat

play52:05

customers you know what does that tell

play52:07

you about the you know loyalty engage or

play52:10

engagement of of customers and the

play52:12

durability about the uh install base of

play52:15

users um you know are these customers uh

play52:18

using this because it's become more

play52:20

habitual and you know it's a better

play52:22

experience or um is it you know out of a

play52:25

NE of of credit thank

play52:28

you so on the on the first question

play52:31

really is just a function of the mix in

play52:35

our business and um that's that's always

play52:38

been true for merchant fee rates we

play52:40

always talk about Merchant fee rates as

play52:42

being mixed driven that's why we began

play52:43

breaking it out in the supplement the

play52:45

slight tick up you see on one of the

play52:47

categories is really just a function of

play52:49

mix within that category but also as

play52:51

duration goes up so does the the price

play52:53

especially in this rate environment

play52:55

where it's pretty duration sensitive in

play52:57

terms of the prices that you charge I

play52:58

don't again I don't think there's a

play52:59

broader Trend to be read into there um

play53:03

and on the the frequency question I'll

play53:04

let Max answer

play53:05

that um you know I

play53:09

think it's a reflection of the fact that

play53:11

the product is becoming more widely

play53:13

available more than anything I think as

play53:15

we sign up some of the Partnerships and

play53:18

expand them like the Shopify reference I

play53:20

made

play53:21

earlier it does result in wider

play53:23

availability the product is popular it's

play53:27

well- liked by the users uh one of our

play53:30

top questions in customer service is why

play53:34

brand why isn't Brand X supporting a

play53:37

firm right now and we work very hard to

play53:40

make sure there are fewer and fewer of

play53:41

those and so as we become more available

play53:44

also as we become available

play53:46

offline in the form of the card as well

play53:48

as some of the Integrations that we've

play53:50

done you'll naturally see more

play53:53

transactional velocity and frequency

play53:54

increase

play53:57

the product

play54:00

is a better product in my highly biased

play54:03

opinion than that of a credit card and

play54:05

as credit utilization goes up broadly I

play54:09

think we are the unfair beneficiaries of

play54:11

of that usage you know given a CH chance

play54:14

or Choice consumers opt in for more

play54:17

affirm spend than credit card spend and

play54:19

uh they're rewarded by having no late

play54:21

fees no compounding interest all the

play54:23

good things that would bring

play54:26

Thanks Max thanks

play54:30

Michael thank you our next question

play54:33

comes from the line of Andrew B with

play54:35

Wells Fargo please proceed with your

play54:38

question hey thanks for taking the

play54:40

question um and excuse me if this has

play54:42

already been asked but just want to get

play54:43

an update on on what you've seen with

play54:45

AFF firm card usage and anything that's

play54:47

surprised you you know another three

play54:50

months into its Evolution around

play54:53

behaviors or categories um just anything

play54:55

broadly around that would be

play54:58

great it's going really well uh you can

play55:01

see in the supplement that we are

play55:03

continuing to grow it uh from my point

play55:05

of view for what it's worth we're

play55:06

growing it cautiously for a couple of

play55:08

good reasons

play55:10

one it's a new mode of operation which

play55:14

means that the downstream services such

play55:16

as customer service the speed resolution

play55:18

Merchant disputes Etc also has to scale

play55:21

so we're going to grow

play55:23

deliberately for a little while longer

play55:25

before we feel that we've learned all

play55:27

the uh important muscle memories of how

play55:30

to handle various conflicts that

play55:33

inevitably occur in Commerce Etc and so

play55:36

feel very good about the growth um you

play55:39

know we still we'll have have many many

play55:41

more turns on you know potentially

play55:44

increasing that in terms of

play55:47

surprises things until generally gone to

play55:51

plan um there is plenty more to do on

play55:56

reasons to use the card more often we

play55:59

talked about uh at the investor event

play56:02

last year we're dangerously close to

play56:05

actually making good on it we have

play56:07

reward programs in mind that give people

play56:09

reasons to use the card for all

play56:11

transactions not just considered

play56:12

purchases uh there's plenty to do with

play56:16

tighter integration between a firm card

play56:18

and a firm account which we've done a

play56:20

couple of things with but there's still

play56:21

more more features to come so and from

play56:24

my point of view the card is still very

play56:26

very early there's just a long road map

play56:29

of of things to do there both on the

play56:33

frequency of use basis as well as just

play56:36

modalities making sure the consumers

play56:38

really understand the full power that it

play56:40

brings and then once we feel that that's

play56:42

really all figured out we have a lot

play56:45

more growth to enable there when we see

play56:48

that that it's the right time to do

play56:49

it and is that next leg of growth just a

play56:52

function of you know then you finally

play56:54

get the green light to you know put the

play56:57

the extra leg of sales of marketing

play56:59

dollars into into the card and the

play57:03

Really the solution in order to kind of

play57:05

find that next L of growth or is it just

play57:07

moving you know further into

play57:10

that it's really there's I I don't

play57:13

anticipate any marketing dollars

play57:14

allocated towards Distributing the card

play57:17

in any foreseeable future it's not any

play57:19

budget that that is not how it's going

play57:21

to get grown so today to get the card

play57:24

you have to have been an affirm

play57:26

transactor before you have to be in good

play57:28

standing you have to be fairly far down

play57:32

the affirm journey and then you have to

play57:34

react to one of the now fairly visible

play57:38

sort of adverts when we say hey do you

play57:40

want to use the affm card we we really

play57:41

think you should try it you're eligible

play57:43

so we we've marketed it without too much

play57:48

restraint although it's still being kept

play57:50

to a higher credit quality standard than

play57:52

the overall affirm so we're still

play57:54

tilting the uh scale a little bit on our

play57:56

favor in terms of consumers that get the

play57:57

card offers are not quite at the same

play58:01

level of cuto off as as everybody else

play58:04

uh and so that that's one obvious way of

play58:06

opening up the funnel but you can

play58:08

imagine a much more aggressive approach

play58:09

where for example right now you have a

play58:12

choice between taking out a loan on a

play58:16

one-time virtual card number or you can

play58:18

go down the rabbit hole of applying for

play58:19

a card obviously taking away the former

play58:22

will naturally increase the ladder so

play58:24

there there's several of non-dramatic

play58:26

but meaningful levers of growth that we

play58:28

have chosen not to pull on just yet and

play58:31

then ultimately if you sign up for a

play58:33

firm at some point you're just G to get

play58:34

a card and uh that that's certainly not

play58:37

not a thing we're going to do tomorrow

play58:38

but uh that that is a uh you know a

play58:42

meaningful trajectory changer so still

play58:45

sounds like it's gonna be pretty

play58:46

targeted for a while here great thank

play58:49

you not not forecasting any anytime that

play58:52

that stops or goes but uh I I feel very

play58:54

good about the car growth for

play59:02

now thank you there are no further

play59:05

questions at this time and I would like

play59:06

to turn the floor back over to Zay Coler

play59:08

for closing

play59:10

comments well thank you everybody for

play59:12

joining the call today we look forward

play59:13

to speaking with you again next

play59:19

quarter they really kept their comments

play59:22

very

play59:23

short I didn't realize how messed up my

play59:26

my hair was after putting that hat on um

play59:29

okay yeah I mean it was a it was a good

play59:32

quarter they saw they saw good results

play59:34

it wasn't the greatest guidance that

play59:35

everyone wanted to see even you know Dan

play59:37

doof came on and was like hey what's

play59:39

with the shockingly low uh guidance that

play59:41

you guys had but uh I don't actually

play59:44

think the stock is moving all that crazy

play59:47

as people are predicting like going into

play59:49

earnings the stock had ran 10% on the

play59:52

day and then just completely evaporated

play59:55

it in a little bit more um but even the

play59:58

day before you know the day ended at $44

play60:01

now it's at 43 right now at the end of

play60:03

at the end of the day it's not a crazy

play60:06

uh thing to see it's just a little bit

play60:08

shocking whenever you see a big run into

play60:10

earnings and then I think it catches a

play60:12

little bit of fomo because maybe some

play60:13

people think that uh earnings results

play60:16

got leaked or something came out some

play60:18

big block buy came in um and then

play60:21

obviously people go oh wait nothing like

play60:24

it it was great earnings but people have

play60:26

to realize okay so I'm seeing a lot of

play60:28

comments in the chat going why is it

play60:30

selling I thought I thought this was a

play60:32

great quarter they beat

play60:33

expectations but like zoom out guys okay

play60:37

like I said back in uh October this

play60:41

stock was $16 a share okay over the next

play60:46

three months there were a bunch of

play60:47

indicators to show that earnings would

play60:50

be amazing and then they were that was

play60:53

already baked into the price that's why

play60:54

they went from 1716 a share up to 50 so

play61:01

the continued Beats from there have to

play61:03

continue to compile onto each

play61:05

other um so no the stock reaction is not

play61:09

something that I think is unheard of or

play61:11

or uncommon it's just they they didn't

play61:14

guide

play61:15

extremely excitingly and and I thought

play61:17

that those comments from Max levchin at

play61:20

the end were uh a little bit hard to

play61:22

hear but but very very true where said a

play61:25

firm card is not just about giving the

play61:27

card out to everyone who wants it like

play61:29

like you can't just Blitz scale this

play61:31

thing because as that happens it's it's

play61:33

more stress on our systems it's more

play61:35

stress on customer service it's more SC

play61:37

more stress on all of these other

play61:39

factors that that that we haven't

play61:41

actually built out so just because we

play61:43

have a great product doesn't mean that

play61:45

it's uh unlimited scaleability

play61:48

so uh he didn't want to comment on it

play61:50

but it's still a very targeted card for

play61:52

now you have to be quite embedded into

play61:54

the system um the only thing I really

play61:57

did take away from this earnings call

play61:59

was holy crap Shopify is going to have

play62:04

an amazing quarter I think they're Blown

play62:06

Away by shopify's growth right now it's

play62:09

doubling their growth gmv wise uh than

play62:12

any of their other platform

play62:15

Merchants so what the heck is happening

play62:17

there was some other news I don't want

play62:19

to get into it I got a call again for

play62:21

for people that are watching right now

play62:23

that aren't future investing subscribers

play62:25

if you guys don't know me we do an 8:30

play62:28

PM Eastern Standard Time live stream

play62:31

every single weekday talking about uh

play62:34

fintech companies lots of Sofi lots of

play62:37

PayPal um affirm if it continues to drop

play62:40

if guidance was that weak I might

play62:41

actually build a position um because

play62:45

full service you know financials is

play62:48

right in my circle of compet uh circle

play62:50

of competence and that's something that

play62:52

I really try to advocate for um big fan

play62:56

of Max levchin and if they can just get

play62:59

out of just buy now pay later it really

play63:01

does change that thesis for me because I

play63:03

don't think that that's a product that

play63:04

you can build a full company on but it

play63:06

is a product that could be um you know a

play63:10

singular product for example if if

play63:11

you're going to be like a new bank or

play63:13

something like this one of these amazing

play63:15

financial services companies you need a

play63:17

secondary product that seen scale faster

play63:19

than your first right and that could be

play63:21

a firm card and then that could be cup

play63:24

with uh you know deposits

play63:27

through uh you know their money accounts

play63:30

which could lower their cost of funding

play63:32

so um very exciting but yeah I think I

play63:37

think Shopify is going to be Bonkers um

play63:40

I posted how excited I am that my

play63:42

portfolio is doing well and Shopify has

play63:44

been a great part of that um but I think

play63:48

it's going to continue on for a long

play63:49

time there was actually some Shopify

play63:50

news today about their pricing strategy

play63:53

but that's for tonight ladies and

play63:54

gentlemen so if you guys want some more

play63:56

news later on or want to catch up on

play63:58

that news make sure you just hit that

play64:00

subscribe button down below but until

play64:01

next time wish you guys all a great day

play64:04

and I'll see you in uh less than three

play64:07

hours bye for

play64:11

now

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Affirm業績展望Max LevchinSharePoint成長Fintech投資株価クレジット
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