The Secret to High Probability DOL

Summary

In this trading tutorial, Zephy and Uzi explore the art of identifying high-probability trades using daily and higher time frame order flows. They discuss the significance of candlestick closures, wicks, and body rejections to anticipate market movements. The presenters emphasize targeting key highs and lows that have previously taken out the opposite extreme, using market profiling to determine daily bias and potential price action. They also delve into the importance of Asian and London ranges to predict New York's market behavior, offering traders insights into market structure and potential entry and exit points.

Takeaways

• 📊 The video discusses the importance of analyzing daily candle closures and their impact on market direction, indicating continuation or reversal patterns.
• 🕯️ Higher time frame candle closures, particularly the difference between wick and body closures, can provide insights into potential market movements.
• 📉 Rejection of highs or lows is crucial in market profiling, suggesting potential reversals or continuations in price action.
• 🎯 Identifying 'important lows' and 'important highs', which are points that have taken out previous highs or lows, is key for market profiling and anticipating future price action.
• 📈 The video emphasizes targeting the equilibrium (EQ) of the previous day's high or low as a potential entry point for trades based on market rejections or closures.
• 🌐 The concept of 'weekly profiling' is mentioned, suggesting that certain market movements can be attributed to weekly patterns or events.
• 📊 The use of 6-hour, hourly, and 5-minute time frames is advocated for a comprehensive understanding of market order flow and potential trading opportunities.
• 🕒 Time-based ranges, such as the Asian and London ranges, are highlighted as indicators for predicting New York market behavior.
• 🔄 The video suggests that observing how price interacts with these time-based ranges can indicate whether to expect a continuation, reversal, or a significant market move.
• 📍 Market profiling is simplified to the concept of rejecting lows and breaking highs, with the emphasis on which lows and highs are most significant for trading decisions.
• 📉 The importance of 'PD arrays' (point and figure chart patterns) in confirming market structure and potential shifts is discussed, indicating areas of support or resistance.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video presented by Zephy and Uzi?

The main topic of the video is about finding high probability trades by analyzing the order flow, specifically focusing on daily candle closures and their implications for market direction.

What does 'high probability higher time frame order flow' refer to in the context of the video?

It refers to the trading strategy of identifying patterns in the market's price action over a longer time frame, which can indicate potential future price movements with a higher likelihood of success.

What is the significance of 'daily candle closures' in the video?

Daily candle closures are important because they provide a narrative on what the market might do next. They can indicate whether the market is likely to continue in the same direction (continuations) or reverse (rejections).

What does 'rejection of the highs' mean in the context of the video?

Rejection of the highs means that the market has attempted to move to a new high but failed to maintain that level, often indicated by a candle with a long wick, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation in the opposite direction.

What is meant by 'body closure' in the video?

A body closure refers to a candle closing within its body, not reaching its high or low, which can indicate a stronger continuation of the current trend.

What is the role of 'weekly profiling' mentioned in the video?

Weekly profiling is a technique used to analyze the market's behavior over the course of a week. It can help identify key support and resistance levels and potential turning points in the market.

What does 'SMT' stand for and what is its relevance in the video?

SMT stands for 'Support and Resistance Meeting Time'. It is relevant in the video as it is used to identify critical points in the market where the price is likely to reverse or continue based on historical support and resistance levels.

Why are 'lows that took the highs' and 'highs that took the lows' considered important in the video?

These points are important because they represent significant shifts in the market structure. When these levels are tested and either rejected or confirmed, they can provide clear signals about the market's direction.

What is the significance of the '6-hour time frame' in the video?

The 6-hour time frame is considered important for identifying key market structures and potential turning points. It helps traders to understand the market's bias and make informed trading decisions.

How does the video suggest using 'time-based ranges' like the 'Asian range' and 'London range'?

The video suggests using time-based ranges to predict the market's behavior during the New York session. By analyzing the highs and lows of these ranges, traders can anticipate whether the market is likely to continue in the same direction or reverse.

What is the purpose of discussing 'PD arrays' in the video?

PD arrays, or Point and Figure arrays, are used to identify potential reversal points in the market. The video suggests that the formation and breakdown of these arrays can provide insights into the market's direction and potential turning points.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Understanding High Probability Order Flow

In this paragraph, the presenters, Zephy and Uzi, introduce the concept of identifying high probability order flow in trading by focusing on daily candle closures and their implications on market direction. They explain the difference between wick and body closures and how these can signal potential market movements. The discussion includes the importance of recognizing when the market rejects highs or lows and how this can inform trading decisions. Specific examples are given to illustrate the points, such as targeting the previous day's high in the case of a rejection and anticipating bullish movement after a failure closure.

05:00

📊 Market Profiling and Swing Point Importance

The second paragraph delves deeper into market profiling, emphasizing the significance of identifying 'important' highs and lows that have the potential to drive market trends. The presenter explains that not every high or low is critical, but those that take out previous highs or lows are particularly influential. These points are used to determine market bias and anticipate future price movements. The concept of 'displacement' is introduced, where the market moves past a significant high or low without closing below it, indicating a strong bias. The presenter also discusses the use of PD arrays (Point and Figure charts) to reinforce these market structures and the importance of time-based ranges in understanding daily market behavior.

10:03

🕒 Time-Based Range Analysis for Trading

In the final paragraph, the focus shifts to the use of time-based ranges, specifically the Asian and London trading sessions, to predict New York market movements. The presenter illustrates how the behavior within these ranges can signal whether the New York session will continue the trend or reverse. Key times, such as the 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. candles, are highlighted as pivotal moments that can indicate the direction of the market. The concept of 'SMR' or Short-Term Market Reversal is introduced, showing how it can be triggered by news or other market events. The presenter concludes by emphasizing the importance of combining these time-based analyses with the previously discussed concepts of market profiling and swing points for effective trading strategies.

Keywords

💡Order Flow

Order flow in the context of the video refers to the movement of buy and sell orders in the market, which can indicate potential price direction. It is a core concept for understanding market dynamics. For example, the script discusses 'high probability higher time frame order flow', suggesting that by analyzing order flow over larger time frames, one can predict market movements with greater certainty.

💡Daily Candle Closures

Daily candle closures are the final closing prices of a security for each trading day, represented on a candlestick chart. The script emphasizes the importance of observing these closures to understand market sentiment and predict future price action, such as 'looking at the higher time frame candle closures gives narrative on what candle will do'.

💡Wick

A wick in candlestick charting is the thin line extending from the body of the candle, representing the high or low of the trading period that was not closed at that price. The script mentions using wicks to anticipate price movements, such as 'anticipate a wick being projection of a high or a low'.

💡Body Closure

Body closure refers to when the closing price of a candle is near the high or low of its body, indicating a strong move in that direction. The script uses this concept to discuss market continuation, as in 'closure means continuations'.

💡Rejection

Rejection in trading terms means that the market has tested a certain price level but failed to maintain it, often resulting in a reversal. The script discusses 'rejecting the highs' as a signal for potential selling opportunities.

💡SMT

SMT, or Support and Resistance Trendline, is a technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels in the market. The script mentions 'an SMT' as a possible reason for price behavior, suggesting the importance of recognizing such patterns in market profiling.

💡Market Profiling

Market profiling is a method of analyzing market data to identify key levels of support and resistance, as well as potential turning points. The script emphasizes its importance, stating 'many of you guys actually use it and don't know how important this market profiling is'.

💡PD Array

PD Array, or Point of Control Array, is a concept from market profiling that represents a series of trades at a particular price level, indicating control by buyers or sellers. The script mentions 'keeping PD arrays' as a way to identify significant price levels in the market.

💡Liquidity Pool

In the context of trading, a liquidity pool refers to the price levels where large amounts of orders are placed, creating potential areas of support or resistance. The script uses the term 'opposite range liquidity pool' to discuss targeting specific price levels for trades.

💡Asian Range

The Asian Range is a specific time frame in the 24-hour trading day, often used by traders to identify key support and resistance levels during the Asian trading session. The script discusses using the 'Asian range' to predict market movements in other sessions, such as New York.

💡Time-Based Ranges

Time-based ranges are periods within the trading day that are considered significant for price action, such as the Asian and London trading sessions. The script explains using these ranges to anticipate market behavior, as in 'using specific highs and lows that are time-based to tell us what the daily candle will print'.

Highlights

Zephy and Uzi present the secret to finding high probability order flow in higher time frames.

The importance of daily candle closures and their impact on market narrative is discussed.

Wick and body closures can predict the direction of the next candle's movement.

Rejection of highs and targeting the EQ of the previous day for potential sell-off is suggested.

The significance of market profiling and its role in anticipating market movements is highlighted.

Identifying 'important lows' and 'important highs' in market profiling for better trading decisions.

The concept of 'displacement' and 'rejection' in market profiling to anticipate market direction.

Using the 6-hour time frame to hold important lows and highs for market profiling.

The impact of weekly profiling and special market conditions like SMTs on trading strategies.

Targeting highs and lows based on market rejections and closures for trading opportunities.

The role of time-based ranges, such as the Asian and London ranges, in predicting daily market behavior.

Using the Asia and London ranges to anticipate New York market movements and identify potential SMRs.

The importance of PD arrays in confirming market structure and potential trend shifts.

How to use the 5-minute chart to identify key times and potential reversals in the market.

The strategy of targeting the high or low of a range after a failure closure for potential bullish or bearish moves.

Combining time-based ranges with market profiling techniques for enhanced trading insights.

The presentation concludes with a summary of the key points and an invitation for feedback from the audience.

Transcripts

what's going on guys uh today it's me

zephy and Uzi and we're going to be

presenting the secret to finding the

high probability higher time frame order

flow uh zephy take it away all right

guys uh in today's video right here uh

what I'm going to cover is the daily

candle

closures and uh yeah uh so we are going

to have to go to the Daily uh time frame

all right by looking at the higher time

frame candle closures Wix versus body

closures gives narrative on what candle

will do we can anticipate a wick being

projection of a high or a low and the

next candle expanding to the opposite

direction while closure means

continuations all right guys so with

this example right here we are rejecting

the highs so we want to Target the EQ of

the previous day and we sell off right

there and then so right we don't go all

the way to the range low and the reason

why is probably because there might be

an smt there might be you know something

else but we did reject off of that so

this next candle right here we uh fail

to close uh below it with a wick with a

candle of closure of failure so now we

want to Target the high of that or the

EQ of that but now since we rejected the

high with a with a failure right here H

we we actually close the body closure

above we want the to expect the next day

to be bullish all right so once we have

the next day again we want to expect the

next day to be bullish again as you can

see right here now with this right here

uh this sell off on Thursday was due to

weekly profiling and there was a smt

with ym that we can cover in another

video okay guys so now since we have a

failure closure in the right here on

Thursday we want to expect the next day

to be bullish okay but we still want to

Target that high and also we can Target

the EQ of that range okay guys and we we

uh we actually took it on the next day

on Friday but the ultimate draw

liquidity is actually still higher all

right so now uh what happened right here

uh we are live on a on a Monday we

expected the next couple of days to be

higher okay Until That Drawing liquidity

is met all right guys uh that's it about

about my uh presentation I'm G give it

to Uzi with the Asia and London or who's

doing that I'm doing that oh

sh I know I didn't know you want me okay

okay okay okay my bad my bad I didn't

know who was doing what I'm G give it to

Uzi with the profiling the market and uh

yeah guys uh take it over Uzi all right

bet all right cut it off it's my turn

now let's discuss the all right nii uh I

want you to start over you're not

recording what I am I'm just going to

keep it rolling and we can just cut it

so I I want you to follow up with me I

want to I want to start off uh with the

6 hour and then the hourly and then the

5 minute all right all right do you want

me to do previous action or old action

uh I'm going give out the lows that took

the highs as important lows yeah we

again that's all should I give

intermediate to lows and highs or not uh

just say lows that took Highs are

important for turtle soup and then say

we can cover that the video all right uh

all right you ready three uh two

all what up um everyone it'sin here I'm

I'mma give you guys uh some good um I

would say a good topic all right to pick

which orderflow which do which high or

low that you should be targeting as your

door all right I'm going give a smidge

of a sauce I know pretty much all of you

guys listen or hear about the market

profiling right but now many many of you

guys actually use it and don't know how

how important this uh uh Market

profiling is all right so let's dive

deeper into it and let's try in every

single time frame starting with the most

important time frame which is the six

hour right in this example in here we

keep uh we keep holding important lows

and PD arrays right and then keep

disrespecting bearish and important

highs bearish PD arrays and important

highs what do I mean by important highs

and lows not every single low or high so

in the first place market profiling is

just rejecting lows breaking highs or

breaking highs rejecting lows simple as

that now what they don't tell you is

which highs and lows you should be

picking all I'mma give you guys today

one of these lows and highs right and

the rest is for you guys to find out the

lows that took the highs and the highs

that took the lows are super important

in total soup these are mainly the ones

that that's going to cause the hole move

down or the hole move up and once we

reject them all right or we break them

it's going to tell you the next move and

that will tell you if OT is going to be

there or not it's going to tell you if

we need a deeper trement it's going to

tell you if you're in the right side of

the market or not but since we um this

is just a small presentation I'll give

you guys a SM of this all right so in

this example I'm marking out this low

this is the low that took out the

previous alltime highs right right when

we dro on Thursday right when we drop

even if it was a displacement have we

displaced through a low that took the

high which is an important Low by the

way have we displaced through it have we

at least closed below it we did not so

what do we expect we expect bullishness

we expect higher and you ex you keep

doing this with the lows that took the

highs and the highs that took the lows

until we break one of them and you pick

a side all right and you target the you

target the opposite range uh liquidity

pool the highs uh lows whatever you

trade CRT whatever yall trade all right

this is for your daily bias right after

identifying what zei just said you can

look for this 6 hour now if we go to the

hourly all right and then come back a

little bit uh in data right and we keep

seeing every single time in this piece

of price section have we displaced

through a lad that took the high all

right every single lad that took the

high did not get closed below more than

two times and we did not form any PD

arrays while breaking out of this range

or of these lows I'm sorry right in the

in the in the other side the the the

highs that took the lows are getting

displaced through with pdas and then

used again as support right this is very

important they get used again and then

the pays that break the highs are

holding a true market structure shift

all right that you won't get faded on if

you follow the autoflow all right and

then let's zoom in into Friday on a five

minute and use the same thing that

happened right so I have my Asian range

and then I have 3:00 a.m. a key time all

right toal soup age range which will uh

let me let me cover in a bit right have

we create any PD Rays below it have we

displaced through it chop indicates a

possible reversal all right and then

what happens that specific high that

took the low all right is that high on

the 30 minute or the hourly or the or

probably the 15 is going to be the high

that took the low getting displaced

through with PD Ray that holds and sends

us even higher all right and then the

same thing we keep breaking the highs

and any low that took the high will get

rejected every single time so is there

any reason for you to be bearish

probably not right so this is one of the

main topics or one of the main things

that you should be watching lows that

took the highs highs that took the lows

I'll class them as the number two most

important important swing points all

right there is number one number three

I'm G give you guys number two number

two I'm sorry but the next uh the next

important highs and lows for total soup

are going to be dropped uh anytime soon

but that will be it for me I'mma give it

out to Nei from here to present the

Asian range all right so following up

what Uzi was going to say uh when we can

use specific highs and lows that are

time based to tell us what the daily

candle will print like so we are able to

capitalize on that uh one of the things

that I always watch for is the Asia

range and the London range to tell me

what New York is going to do so the Asia

range is from 20 to zero uh if you use

24-hour time so what I will do is I will

watch this the high and the low of it to

see what this daily order flow is right

now you can see that we get one closure

below this low the Asia range low and

then 3:00 a specific time rejects it it

rejects it and we close above Asia high

with a body closure and we start getting

multiple body closures above which is

indicating that price is in a bullish uh

scenario for the rest of the day so like

Uzi said you can use previous highs

especially previous time ties as support

as real support uh for price to go high

high if we go down to the 15 you can see

that we're failing to close below this

range and we're creating PD arrays

through the range unlike down here when

we hit the range and we consolidate and

we range followed with a turtle soup and

expansion so we can use this timed range

every single day to tell you if New York

is going to have a classic buy day

continuation or if we're going to have a

reversal now another example of this was

Thursday so if we Mark out our timed

range so the high of the range right

here and the low of the range

now London never took the low of Asia

range Asia was an expansion London was a

consolidation so therefore you can

expect Asia range low to be taken from

New York and you can expect a New York

SMR on this daily candle which is

exactly what happened so 830 news driver

propelled price to the Asia range low

and then we had a New York

continuation to the higher time frame

draw liquidity which would be this low

right here and to show one more example

of this working let's do let's do this

day so right here we have our Asia range

so the high and the low of the Asia

range now what did London do London

failed to displace through this low and

failed to displace through this high so

that tells me that London and Asia are

still consolidating so you can expect

what a New York reversal a New York SMR

which would happen at what time the 9:00

a.m. candle so what we look for is we

pair things that Uzi and zhy talked

about recently lows that took highs

expansion new PD Rays being created and

then we had time and you can catch big

moves like this because your Dole is

correct Dole will tell you when a big

move will happen and where it will start

and using the Asia and London range

combined to tell you what New York is

going to do is one of the best ways to

do that and that is all I'll be giving

in this presentation uh let me know if

you guys liked it and uh until the next

one I'll see you guys