Is Venezuela on the Brink of Revolution?

Summary

The script details Venezuela's political crisis following the disputed 2024 election, where Nicolas Maduro claimed victory amid widespread allegations of fraud. It discusses the economic collapse, social unrest, and international response, highlighting the tension between Maduro's regime and the opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez. The summary underscores the potential for upheaval and the uncertainty of Venezuela's democratic future.

Takeaways

• 🗓️ The world anticipated an inflection point in Venezuela's political landscape with the July 28th elections, which were crucial for the country's democratic future.
• 📜 The Barbados Agreement in October 2023 was a joint accord between the Maduro government and the opposition, promising free and fair elections in exchange for eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry.
• 📉 Venezuela's economy has suffered a severe contraction, with its GDP dropping by 75% in a decade, leading to widespread poverty and hyperinflation.
• 🏛️ The erosion of democratic institutions in Venezuela began with Hugo Chavez and worsened under Nicolas Maduro, culminating in the fraudulent election of 2018 and subsequent social unrest.
• 📊 Despite the regime's attempts to manipulate the 2024 election, opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez was leading by a significant margin according to pre-election polls.
• 🏆 The government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner of the election without providing a detailed vote count, raising suspicions of electoral fraud.
• 📑 The opposition managed to obtain and publish a significant number of tally sheets, which, according to their analysis, indicate a landslide victory for Gonzalez.
• 🌍 International reactions to the election results were mixed, with the US and EU not recognizing Maduro's victory, while Russia, China, and others congratulated him.
• 🚨 Domestic protests erupted in Venezuela following the election, with violence and arrests becoming widespread as the regime cracked down on dissent.
• 🛡️ The military's loyalty to Maduro is uncertain, and while a coup is not guaranteed, it remains a potential avenue for change if the protests continue to grow.
• 🕊️ The opposition's strategy moving forward is to focus on the unreleased tally sheets to prove electoral fraud and gain international support for their cause.

Q & A

What was the significance of the Barbados agreement signed between the Venezuelan government and the opposition?

The Barbados agreement was a joint accord signed in October 2023, which stipulated that in exchange for the US easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, the Venezuelan government would hold free and fair elections in 2024. This agreement was a critical turning point as it set the stage for the political events that unfolded in Venezuela.

What were the economic conditions in Venezuela leading up to the elections?

Venezuela's economy was in a state of collapse, with its GDP contracting by 75% over the last 10 years, plunging up to 80% of the population into poverty. Hyperinflation hit a staggering 130,000% at one point, exacerbating the economic hardship faced by the citizens.

How did the political landscape in Venezuela change from the 1970s to the present day?

In the 1970s, Venezuela was one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America, thanks to its vast oil reserves. However, economic mismanagement and the rise of Hugo Chavez and later Nicolás Maduro led to a severe weakening of the country's institutions and a dramatic economic decline, culminating in widespread poverty and hyperinflation.

What was the fraudulent election of 2018 and its aftermath in Venezuela?

The fraudulent election of 2018 was marred by widespread allegations of vote rigging and electoral fraud, which led to international condemnation and further sanctions. The aftermath included a mass exodus of the population, with up to a quarter of Venezuelans fleeing the country, and a soaring homicide rate that made Venezuela the most dangerous place in Latin America.

Why did the Venezuelan government ban the main opposition candidate, Maria Karina Machado, from running in the 2024 elections?

The Venezuelan government banned Maria Karina Machado, a highly charismatic and popular opposition figure, from running in the 2024 elections to ensure a more favorable outcome for Maduro. The opposition was left with a less inspiring candidate, 74-year-old ex-diplomat Edmundo González.

What was the significance of the tally sheets in the Venezuelan election process, and why were they controversial in the 2024 elections?

In Venezuela, tally sheets are printed by voting machines and are meant to provide a transparent record of votes cast. They are controversial in the 2024 elections because the government-controlled National Electoral Council did not publish them, claiming hacking attempts as the reason, which raised suspicions of electoral fraud.

How did the international community react to the 2024 Venezuelan election results?

The international community was largely skeptical of the election results, with the United States, the European Union, and several Latin American governments refusing to recognize Maduro's claim to victory. Some countries, like Russia, China, and Nicaragua, accepted the results, while others, including Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, pressed for the release of the voting tallies.

What was the domestic reaction to the election results within Venezuela, and how did it manifest?

Domestically, the reaction was one of widespread protest and unrest, particularly in former regime strongholds that had been loyal to Hugo Chavez. Protesters took to the streets, and there were reports of violence and arrests, with the government using its security apparatus to suppress dissent.

What are the potential implications of the disputed election results for the stability of Latin America?

The disputed election results could have significant implications for regional stability. The ongoing crisis in Venezuela has already led to a massive refugee crisis, with millions of Venezuelans fleeing to neighboring countries. Further unrest could exacerbate social tensions and potentially lead to a larger exodus, affecting the stability of the region.

What are some possible scenarios for resolving the political crisis in Venezuela, and what are the challenges associated with each?

Possible scenarios include international mediation, mass protests leading to a change in government, or a military coup. Each scenario presents challenges, such as the risk of further violence, the potential for international tensions, and the difficulty of ensuring a peaceful transition to a democratic system.

How might the Venezuelan crisis impact the upcoming U.S. Presidential elections, and what role could the U.S. play in resolving the crisis?

The Venezuelan crisis could impact the U.S. Presidential elections by affecting gasoline prices and potentially leading to a border crisis if more Venezuelans flee to the U.S. The U.S. could play a role in resolving the crisis through diplomatic pressure, supporting international mediation efforts, or even considering offering Maduro immunity from prosecution as a means to facilitate a peaceful transition.

Outlines

00:00

🏛 Venezuela's Democratic Struggle and the 2024 Election

The world watched as Venezuela, under Nicholas Maduro's socialist government, faced a critical juncture with the 2024 elections. The Barbados agreement with the US promised eased sanctions in exchange for fair elections. However, post-election, signs of fraud emerged with the government withholding official vote tallies and violent responses to anti-regime protests. The situation reflects a nation on the brink of chaos, with democracy seemingly extinguished and the populace questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process.

05:00

📊 The Unfolding Crisis: Election Results and International Reaction

Despite Maduro's government claiming victory with 52% of the vote, suspicions of electoral fraud arose as the national electoral council failed to publish vote count breakdowns. Venezuela's election process involves tally sheets from voting machines that can be cross-referenced for accuracy. The opposition managed to obtain and publish a significant portion of these sheets, suggesting a landslide victory for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. International reactions varied, with the US and EU not recognizing Maduro's claim, while countries like Russia and China supported him. The situation has escalated with protests and government crackdowns, leading to numerous deaths and arrests.

10:01

🚨 Internal Unrest and the Regime's Response to Protests

Venezuelan protests are now more widespread and intense, reaching areas that were once staunch supporters of Hugo Chavez and Maduro. The government's response has been severe, with security forces detaining thousands and employing violent tactics against demonstrators. Maduro's rhetoric has escalated, and he has vowed to crush the opposition, even as the attorney general opens criminal probes into opposition leaders. The military, a key player, has yet to show signs of turning against Maduro, despite the mounting unrest.

15:02

🌎 Broader Implications and Possible Future Scenarios for Venezuela

The crisis in Venezuela has profound implications for the region and the world. The potential for an exodus of people fleeing the country could strain international relations and create humanitarian crises. The international community has a vested interest in ensuring the election results are respected, with some suggesting the offer of immunity to Maduro as a means to facilitate a peaceful transition. However, the regime's survival could lead to further instability and suffering for the Venezuelan people, with the nation's future hanging in the balance.

Keywords

💡Inflection point

An inflection point is a critical moment or turning point at which a significant change occurs. In the video's context, it refers to the pivotal moment in Venezuela's political landscape that would determine the future of democracy. The script mentions the anticipation of an inflection point leading up to the July 28th vote, which was expected to either bring about change or extinguish democratic hopes.

💡Barbados agreement

The Barbados agreement is a joint accord between the Venezuelan government and the opposition facilitated by the United States. It involved a commitment to hold free and fair elections in exchange for easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry. The script describes this agreement as a crucial step towards the elections and a potential catalyst for change.

💡Economic collapse

Economic collapse refers to a severe and often sudden downturn in a country's economy, characterized by factors such as a sharp decline in GDP, hyperinflation, and widespread poverty. The script uses this term to describe the dire state of Venezuela's economy, which has contracted by 75% over a decade and pushed 80% of the population into poverty.

💡Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is an extreme rate of inflation, typically characterized by a rapid and seemingly uncontrollable rise in prices. In the script, hyperinflation is mentioned as a factor contributing to Venezuela's economic woes, with inflation rates reaching as high as 130,000% at one point.

💡Fraudulent election

A fraudulent election is one in which the electoral process is manipulated or tampered with to produce a predetermined outcome. The script refers to the 2018 Venezuelan election as fraudulent, setting the stage for the political unrest and the contested 2024 election.

💡Opposition candidate

An opposition candidate is a person who runs for office against the ruling party or government's candidate. The script discusses the banning of the main opposition candidate, Maria Karina Machado, and the subsequent nomination of an alternative candidate, which is a key element in the political tension leading up to the election.

💡Electororal fraud

Electoral fraud encompasses various illegal practices aimed at influencing the outcome of an election. The script alleges that the Maduro government committed electoral fraud in the 2024 election, with the opposition claiming to have evidence of vote manipulation through the withheld tally sheets.

💡Tally sheets

Tally sheets are documents that record vote counts from individual voting precincts. In Venezuela, these sheets are meant to be publicly available for verification against official results. The script highlights the controversy surrounding the unreleased tally sheets as a sign of potential electoral fraud.

💡International reaction

International reaction refers to the responses and attitudes of foreign governments and organizations towards a particular event or situation. The script details the varied international responses to the Venezuelan election, ranging from recognition of the opposition's victory to acceptance of the government's claims.

💡Protests

Protests are public demonstrations against perceived injustices or to express dissatisfaction with government policies. The script describes widespread protests in Venezuela following the election, indicating a significant level of public unrest and dissatisfaction with the electoral outcome.

💡Democratic path

The democratic path refers to the course of a nation adhering to democratic principles and processes, such as free and fair elections. The script questions whether Venezuela can return to this path following the contested election and the potential for ongoing political crisis.

Highlights

Venezuela faced an inflection point with the potential to usher in change or snuff out democracy.

The Barbados agreement was a joint accord with the US to hold free elections in 2024 in exchange for easing sanctions.

Democracy in Venezuela is declared dead, with the country descending into chaos post-election.

Masked goons attacked anti-regime protesters, and Maduro accused opponents of plotting against him without releasing official vote tallies.

Venezuela's economic collapse led to a GDP contraction of 75% over 10 years and hyperinflation of 130,000%.

Venezuela was once one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America with the world's largest oil reserves.

Hugo Chavez's rise to power weakened Venezuela's institutions, and Maduro's mismanagement pushed the country into a crisis.

The fraudulent election of 2018 and the subsequent exodus of the population marked a turning point for Venezuela.

The US partially lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to encourage fair elections.

The opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, held a significant lead according to pre-election polls.

The government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner without publishing a breakdown of vote counts.

The opposition managed to obtain and publish a significant number of tally sheets, suggesting electoral fraud.

International reactions were mixed, with some countries recognizing Maduro's victory and others questioning the results.

Protests in Venezuela were intense, with former regime strongholds now at the center of unrest.

The government's response to protests included harsh rhetoric and increased security force against demonstrators.

The opposition's strategy is to focus on the unreleased tally sheets to prove electoral fraud.

The situation in Venezuela could have far-reaching implications for the region, including potential increases in refugee numbers.

Transcripts

for N9 months the world waited knowing

Venezuela was headed towards an

inflection point a moment that would

either Usher in an era of change or else

snuff out the last hopes that democracy

might ever be restored back in October

Nicholas maduro's socialist government

in the opposition sealed joint Accord

with the US known as the Barbados

agreement in exchange for kakas holding

free and fair elections in 2024 Uncle

Sam would ease the sanctions choking

Venezuela's oil industry from that

moment the countdown was on until July

the 28th till the moment the Venezuelans

would vote and everyone would see

whether the will of the people still

mattered well nearly 2 weeks on from

that inflection point we have our answer

democracy in Venezuela on life support

for so long is officially dead and in

its place has come chaos at the time of

writing masked goons were on the streets

of Caracus attacking anti-regime

protesters Maduro is railing against

supposed plots against him all while

refusing to release the official tallies

of votes some two dozen are dead and

thousands more have been arrested with

the atmosphere tense Venezuelans are

wondering if the regime can cling to

power if Maduro really can pull off what

might be the largest electoral fraud in

Latin American history because the

alternative is the sort of uprising like

we just saw in Bangladesh a wave of

people power that unseats an autocrat

who has become increasingly repressive

and make no mistake which of these two

paths Venezuela chooses in the next few

weeks could have an impact that is felt

across the whole of The Americans now to

understand why we first need to sketch

out the background of the July 28th vote

to give you a sense of how Maduro came

to hold elections he must have always

known he was planning to steal after all

the Barbados agreement of October 2023

didn't come out of nowhere the only

reason the regime initially signed up to

it was because the country was in a

state of economic collapse here are some

figures according to the Council on

Foreign Relations Venezuela's GDP has

contracted by 75% over the last 10 years

a contraction that has seen up to 80% of

the population plunge into poverty to

put that number in context the Great

Depression of the 1930s saw American GDP

contract by 30% at the time such a fall

felt apocalyptic and depression erer

Americans didn't even have to deal with

hyperinflation at one point in the 2010s

Venezuelan inflation hit an eye popping

130,000 per. making all this

additionally painful was the fact that

Venezuela wasn't always like this as

recently as the 1970s the nation was

booming sat at up the world's largest

proven or reserves it had grown into one

of the wealthiest countries in Latin

America even as late as the 1990s when

economic turbulence triggered violent

protests it was still considered

relatively stable but the rise to power

of Hugo Chavez severely weakens the

country's institutions by the time his

anointed success and Nicholas Maduro

took over in 2013 effective checks and

balances had nearly disappeared after

narrowly winning election that same year

Maduro began to remove the last of them

just as economic mismanagement pushed

the country off the cliff Edge you've

probably heard what followed next the

fraudulent election of 2018 The Exodus

of up to a quarter of the population The

Soaring homicide rate which made

Venezuela the most murderous place in

Latin America between 2017 and 2022

adding to the government's W Were Us

imposed sanctions on the country's oil

industry the same sanctions which were

partially lifted by the White House to

sweeten the deal of the Barbados

agreement it was this move that seems to

have convinced Maduro to hold the 2024

election with a real opposition

candidate on the ballot although we

can't pretend to know the inner workings

of the Venezuelan government the fact

that the election offered a genuine

Choice seems to reflect the regime's

assumption that small economic

improvements would be enough to bring

its base voters out in force enough to

perhaps even squeak a legitimate win

just to be sure though Caracas bans the

main opposition candidate the highly

charismatic Maria Karina machard from

running after a handpicked replace

bement was also banned the opposition

was left running the uninspired

74-year-old ex- Diplomat edmondo

Gonzalez Aria maduro's gamble seems to

have been that if he just put his thumb

on the scales enough he could produce a

win that looked legitimate to the

outside world if that's the case though

the regime underestimated how much a

decade of deprivation had turned the

country against it despite the relative

lack of Charisma opinion poll soon

recorded Gonzalez holding a gigantic

lead how gigantic well crisis group

reports that Gonzalez was up 30 points

ahead of the vote foreign policy writes

that quoting here in pre-election public

opinion polls more than 80% of

registered voters said they wanted

political change and an almost equal

number expressed an intent to vote the

quote ends combined with Gonzalez and

Machado drawing vast crowds at rallies

in what had once been hardcore travista

territory it briefly felt like change

might be in the air in the weeks leading

up to July 28th foreign media wed if the

vote might be too lopsided to steal but

there's a reason we used the word

briefly in that previous paragraph there

for all the hopes for all the voter

mobilization the truth is that Maduro

had L been planning to steal the vote

all along and so it was that arounds

midnight on July the 28th mere hours

after polls closed the

government-controlled national electoral

Council declared that Maduro had won

with 52% of the vote to Gonzalez's 43 so

comfortable did the of Victory SE that

some foreign Outlets including the New

York Times initially reported maduro's

re-election as fact but then a few more

hours passed and people began to notice

something very strange as the New Yorker

notes the announcement was made without

publishing a breakdown of vote counts so

here's something you should know about

how elections work in Venezuela although

voters do use machines the results

aren't just sent to some Central

database that the government can

manipulate instead every machine prints

out a tally before transmitting its data

what are known as actors that means that

anyone in the country can check the

official results against the sheets and

see if the reported results are accurate

by law all participating political

parties are entitled to copies of these

tally sheets on July the 28th though

multiple voting precincts refused to

hand them over the national electoral

Council didn't publish them on its

website publicly the Maduro government

claims the release have been delayed due

to hackers attacking election

infrastructure this to put it mildly was

unusual Hugo Chavez was long proud of

the fact that his authoritarian rule was

backed by voters publishing the tallies

was a way to prove Venezuela's elections

or manipulated were not stolen so for

Maduro to keep them hidden for over a

week after the election was fishy in the

extreme unfortunately for him the

opposition was already working to make

the missing actors public thanks to a

vast ground game the opposition claims

was able to get a hold of 24, 532 tally

sheets or about 79% of the total in the

days since the election it's been

posting them online while their website

was quickly blocked in Venezuela it's

still visible for the International

Community to see or anybody with a VPN

in a special report AP News analyzed the

data while cautioning that they couldn't

actually verify the actor's authenticity

they nonetheless said they were able to

tabulate over 10.2 million votes here is

their conclusion quoting according to

the calculations opposition's edmondo

Gonzalez received 6.89 million votes

nearly half a million more than the

government says Maduro won with the

tabulations also showed that Maduro

received 3.13 million votes from the

tally sheets released in other words if

the ACT is posted online by the

opposition or Genuine they show Gonzalez

didn't just win but he won by a

landslide Steve levitzki an expert on

Democracy at Harvard University

described the tally sheet as showing

that the Maduro government had committed

quote one of the most egregious

electoral frauds in modern Latin

American history it was an assessment

that most of the world seemed to share

the United States declared Gonzalez the

elections legitimate winner the European

Union refused to recognize maduro's

claim to Victory closer to home multiple

Latin American governments questioned

the results in retaliation foreign

policy reports that Caracus ordered the

shutting of embassies for Argentina

Chile Costa Rica the Dominican Republic

Ecuador Panama Peru and Uruguay that is

a hardcore move embassies usually remain

open in all circumstances except

outright War the Russian Embassy in

Washington DC for example is still open

today speaking of Russia it won't

surprise you to hear which capitals

congratulated Maduro on his win

alongside Moscow Beijing Tran and

Belgrade will welcome the result in

Latin America Nicaragua Cuba Bolivia and

Honduras accepted the regime's fraud at

face value perhaps more important though

are the three major Nations that neither

accepted nor rejected the results at the

time of writing Mexico Brazil and

Colombia have refrained from claiming

fraud but they are pressing Maduro to

release the voting tallies given that

Brazil and Colombia are currently led by

leftists with known soft spots for

Venezuela that's potentially a massive

problem for Maduro one that we'll

explore in a bit more detail in a moment

for now though we want to switch Focus

From the international reaction to the

reaction inside Venezuela because it's

the outpouring of rage on the nation's

streets that makes this subject suitable

for war Graphics that suggests the

country could perhaps be heading for a

major upheaval now the first thing to

note is that the protests gripping

Venezuela are different from before not

necessarily in their intensity but in

the areas that are now at the center of

the fire storm former regime strongholds

that were deeply loyal to Hugo Chavez

according to the economist these

strongholds include not just

working-class districts in Caracus like

patare but also former regime bastions

outside the capital like VI Lindo the

guardian reports that elv District where

Maduro himself was raised is gripped by

unrest quoting residents who spoke to

their reporter the newspaper headlined

its article with a simple warning quote

Maduro has lost the streets these are

places that once delivered 85% of their

votes to Hugo Chavez not due to fraud

but due to Chavez redirecting vast

amounts of Petro dollars to their

impoverished neighborhoods the sort of

places that reliably voted for Maduro is

recently as 2018 when the economic

meltdown was already underway now there

sights of ordinary Venezuelans pulling

down statues of Chavez of angry roing

demonstrations and that means they're

also the locations where the regime's

backlash has begun in Earnest at the

time of writing the government is

turning the full force of its security

apparatus onto the protesters the New

Yorker reports on videos of plane

clothes men dragging people into

unmarked SUVs armed prog government

groups have been witnessed firing guns

into crowds as of August the 6th 22

people are thought to have died

thousands have been arrested many from

working-class communities by Saturday

the 3rd Maduro was boasting at a rally

that 2,000 people have been detained and

the police would detain at least another

1,000 more Al P writes these numbers are

far higher than those of 2017 when there

were four months of protests maduro's

rhetoric is also getting harsher Quite a

feat given his bombastic nature in

recent speeches he's vowed to pulverize

the protesters and claimed he is quote

willing to do anything to protect the

revolution that anything seems to

include a final Crackdown on the

opposition officers have already been

ransacked by the security forces and

prominent leaders taken into custody on

August the 5th attorney general TX

declared that he was opening a criminal

probe into both Maria Karina Machado and

edmondo Gonzalez Aria the charges came

after Machado and Gonzalez penned an

open letter asking for the Armed Forces

to switch sides and stand with the

Venezuelan people so far though there's

no sign of that happening the bolivarian

army of Venezuela is at the center of an

enormous patronage Network that relies

on the regime to keep its Pockets lined

with cash it's also overseen by a

ruthless intelligence service that

quickly clamps down on any sign of

descent unless the protests become big

enough to outweigh both the greed of the

officer Corp and the fear of its Junior

ranks it's hard to see them turning

their backs on Maduro still that doesn't

mean it's impossible just look at

Bangladesh where prime minister Sheik

Hina appeared Invincible as she cracked

down on similar mass protests only to

suddenly flee the country as the Army

ordered her to step down the great hope

of Venezuela's protesters is that

something similar will happen in Caracus

although we should note that it's not a

hope shared by Gonzalez who recently

wrote an editori in The Economist

claiming it would be against my

principles and against my lifelong

record to Advocate any violence let

alone audar but let's park the

possibility of the military stepping in

for a moment as being less likely

assuming the Army doesn't mount a coup

where might things go from here for now

the opposition's plan appears to be to

focus on the tally sheets as a way of

proving to the International Community

that Gonzalez won the election by

relentlessly focusing on maduro's

refusal to publish them they likely hope

to convince outside actors but something

needs to be done what that something

might be at anybody's guess the us could

well reimpose the oil sanctions it

lifted as part of the Barbados agreement

but that might help Maduro sell his

claim that the protests are all part of

an imperialist plot additionally as

Bloomberg notes it's not clear that the

Biden Administration would risk rattling

the energy market and potentially

pushing up gasoline prices for us

drivers ahead of the November 5th US

Presidential vote a more constructive

intervention might involve Brazil

Colombia and Mexico mediating between

the two sides as we said earlier

Brazilia and bogatar are already

pressuring Maduro to release the actors

and the foreign Ministers of all three

nations are do and Caracas this week to

try and find a solution to the crisis

the advantage of a process led by the

trio is that Maduro might actually

listen to them the disadvantage is that

lpce reports their current plan involves

direct negotiations between Maduro and

Gonzalez negotiations that would cut out

Maria Karina Machado and have therefore

been rejected by the opposition another

tool in the opposition's Box could be to

try and harness the mass protests if

they get big enough and carry on for

long enough they might demonstrate to

other members of the government that

Maduro has lost the regime's base and

that a bloodless Palace coup could be in

order as the center for strategic and

International Studies writes the

protests send the message that the

Venezuelan people will not submit to

such obscene cheating and that those in

the streets are not only the opposition

Venezuela is in the streets the question

though is how how long the demonstrators

can keep going after a decade of

economic crisis and soaring crime normal

Venezuelans may be angry but they're

also busy just trying to scrape by and

few people want to risk everything for a

mass movement that fails for his part

crisis group suggests that maduro's

tactic will be to quote batten down the

hatches and try to ride out the storm

this will involve both repression and

spinning wild Tales of international

plots against him but it'll also involve

just refusing using to budge and hoping

the International Community will get

tired and give up before he does if

that's the case then we might expect the

coming weeks to unfold less like the

successful protests this year in

Bangladesh and more like the 2020

protests in bellarus where an aging

autocrat came close to topping but

managed to cling on through a

combination of brute violence and

support from International allies in

this case Russia yet following such a

strategy is risky for Maduro crisis

group indicates that even many hardcore

chers were annoyed the Maduro ran again

instead of making way for new blood if

he is forced to fight tooth and nail

just to stop a revolution he may wind up

being fatally weakened sadly for

Venezuela such an outcome may not really

matter the question isn't whether Maduro

might be quietly removed from power in a

year or two but whether the election

results are respected today whether the

country can return to the Democratic

path it left so long ago if the answer

turns out to be no if the regime manages

to survive these Mass protests then the

KnockOn effects could be felt across the

Americas in the last decade alone about

8 million Venezuelans over a quarter of

the population fled as their Nation

imploded a tide of humanity surging

towards the relative safety of regional

neighbors today Colombia alone plays

host to 3 million Venezuelan refugees

another million live in Brazil 800,000

in the US many having crossed the border

illegally already social tensions are

growing around the refugees fairly or

unfairly the think tank chattam house

reports that locals blame them for

surges in crime yet this may be just the

start of the Exodus prior to the vote

polling by The Firm Meg analysis showed

that up to 40% of the remaining

population was thinking about

immigrating should Maduro be reelected

that's millions and millions of people

who might attempt to cross into Brazil

or Colombia ratcheting up local anger or

he might flee to the US creating a major

border crisis in an already tense

election year clearly the International

Community has skin in the game of

convincing Maduro to respect the

election results and there are ways

outside countries might help one major

one as distasteful as it might seem

could be to offer Maduro immunity from

prosecution right now the autocrat is

wanted in the US on drug trafficking

charges and may soon be indicted by the

international criminal court for the

killing of protesters in 2017 the

magazine America's quarterly explains

things this way what Maduro and his

allies fear most is not losing power per

se but spending the rest of their lives

in a supermax federal prison in the

United States should Maduro and cronies

be offered sweeping immunity as well as

oneway tickets to say Cuba it might

remove one incentive for them to cling

to power where the Venezuelans who've

suffered at the hands of the regime

could accept such a deal though that's

another story at the end of all that

then this is where things stand at the

time of recording with a Venezuela that

feels like it is on the brink with a

massive political crisis overwhelming

the nation but with seemingly no easy

way out no easy way to make sure the

Tyrant who just stole an election could

be convinced to step down without any

more Bloodshed obviously events are

moving fast right now it could be that

some solution will present itself in the

coming days even if it is a simple as a

military coup or a revolution but amid

all the uncertainty that lies ahead the

one thing we should never forget are the

Venezuelan people themselves people

who've now lived for a decade or more in

a nation in a state of collapse people

who've been immiserated and locked up by

the regime now trying to cling to power

for their sakes alone we can only pray

that a solution is found that Madura is

convinced to stand aside so this once

proud country might be able to At Last

start rebuilding again