Why It’s Unlikely We Will Get An Altcoin Season
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the current state of cryptocurrency markets, emphasizing the importance of key price levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum to attract new investors. It highlights the potential for a slow third quarter and the need for liquidity and hype to drive the market. The speaker also critiques the influence of YouTubers who may mislead viewers with overly bullish content and stresses the importance of market cycles, accumulation phases, and the potential impact of global liquidity and regulatory news on the crypto market.
Takeaways
- 📉 The speaker suggests that altcoin recovery may take time and emphasizes the importance of key levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others to be broken before a significant market turnaround.
- 📅 The script discusses the historical patterns of Bitcoin's performance, indicating that while July has shown potential for a rebound, the speaker is more interested in the market dynamics of October to December.
- 🤔 The speaker expresses concern about the potential misinformation spread by YouTubers, which could lead to poor investment decisions based on the timing and content of the messages.
- 📊 There is an analysis of market cycles, suggesting that the current phase might be accumulation, with a need for liquidity and hype to drive the market forward.
- 🚀 The script mentions positive and bullish news, including the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF and global liquidity, which could influence market sentiment.
- 💡 The speaker highlights the importance of distinguishing between hype and actual market movements, questioning why the price isn't reflecting the bullish news.
- 🔑 The script points out that Bitcoin's dominance is currently high, and the market might be entering a 'Bitcoin season' where Bitcoin outperforms other cryptocurrencies.
- 💰 The discussion includes the potential for a market bottom in June, followed by a retracement and a possible further decline, cautioning investors about the risks of getting caught out by short-term market movements.
- 🔮 The speaker anticipates that the top assets and projects with strong fundamentals, like Chainlink, Cardano, and Polkadot, may attract liquidity in the future.
- 📉 The script warns of the potential for a prolonged downtrend, especially for altcoins, which may not follow Bitcoin's potential bounce due to a lack of liquidity and market interest.
- 📝 The speaker concludes by emphasizing the need for caution and critical analysis of market news and trends, advising against following too many sources to avoid skewed information.
Q & A
What is the speaker's perspective on the current state of altcoins?
-The speaker suggests that altcoins might be in a period of stagnation, requiring key levels to be broken before new people and liquidity return to the market.
What does the speaker mean by 'herb mentality'?
-The term 'herb mentality' is not explicitly defined in the script, but it likely refers to a mindset of cautious optimism or a strategy for managing investments in a volatile market.
What factors does the speaker believe are necessary for a market rebound?
-The speaker mentions the need for liquidity, hype, and elements of scarcity, as well as positive, bullish news to stimulate a market rebound.
What is the speaker's view on the potential timing of the next market movement?
-The speaker suggests that while some predict a rebound in July based on historical patterns, they are more interested in the potential movements in the latter half of the year, particularly October, November, and December.
What does the speaker think about the role of YouTubers in the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker criticizes some YouTubers for potentially spreading misleading information that could compromise investors' positions due to the timing of their messages.
What historical pattern does the speaker refer to regarding Bitcoin's performance in the summer months?
-The speaker refers to a historical pattern where Bitcoin often experiences a period of inactivity during the summer months, with more significant movements happening later in the year.
What is the significance of the 'accumulation zone' mentioned by the speaker?
-The 'accumulation zone' signifies a period where Bitcoin is being accumulated, potentially at lower prices, indicating a phase in the market cycle that could precede a price increase.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of altcoin seasons?
-The speaker implies that altcoin seasons may not be imminent, as the market needs to break key levels first, and they express skepticism about the current bullish sentiment.
What is the speaker's opinion on the importance of liquidity in the market?
-The speaker emphasizes that liquidity is crucial for market movements and that without it, the price of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, may not move as expected.
What potential event does the speaker mention that could affect Ethereum's market performance?
-The speaker refers to the possibility of an Ethereum ETF, which could introduce new liquidity and interest into the market, potentially affecting Ethereum's price.
What does the speaker mean by 'the strongest and the fittest will survive' in the context of cryptocurrencies?
-The speaker suggests that in a market with limited liquidity, only the top cryptocurrencies with strong fundamentals and support are likely to thrive, while lesser-known coins may struggle.
How does the speaker view the role of news in influencing the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker acknowledges that while positive news can be bullish, the market price does not always reflect this, indicating that other factors such as liquidity and market sentiment also play significant roles.
Outlines
📉 Crypto Market Analysis and Potential Altcoin Season
The speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the need for key levels to be broken for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins to attract new investors and liquidity. They mention the possibility of a boring Q3 but highlight historical patterns suggesting a potential Bitcoin rebound in July. The speaker also warns against misinformation from YouTubers and stresses the importance of market cycles, liquidity, and elements of scarcity in driving the market.
🤔 Market Cycles and Accumulation Phases
This paragraph delves into the potential accumulation zones for Bitcoin, suggesting that the current market conditions might be indicative of a bottoming phase. The speaker speculates on the impact of potential rate cuts and other market factors, such as bank bankruptcies or SEC actions, on liquidity. They predict that the top assets and coins with strong fundamentals will likely survive and thrive, while the altcoin market may struggle unless key levels are breached.
📈 Speculation on Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Behavior
The speaker provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance, particularly during summer months, and suggests that a similar pattern might occur, with a possible run before a subsequent pullback. They discuss the dominance of Bitcoin in the current market and the potential for an altcoin season, but caution that the timing is difficult to predict accurately. The speaker also touches on the importance of market sentiment and the role of news in influencing price movements.
🚫 Caution Against Misleading Crypto Market Predictions
In this paragraph, the speaker warns about the potential for misleading information on YouTube, especially regarding bullish predictions that may not materialize. They emphasize the importance of being cautious and not following too many sources to avoid skewed information that could lead to poor investment decisions. The speaker also reflects on their own content creation, expressing a preference for psychological and technical analysis videos over speculative ones.
📉 Analyzing the Downtrend of Altcoins and Market Outlook
The speaker discusses the current downtrend of altcoins against Bitcoin, suggesting that the market may continue to face challenges unless key resistance levels are broken. They mention the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF and other market-moving events, while also considering the possibility of a prolonged downtrend that could extend into the start of the previous bull market. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of patience and careful analysis in the crypto market.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Altcoins
💡Bullish
💡Key Levels
💡Liquidity
💡Scarcity
💡Accumulation Zone
💡Dominance
💡Market Cycles
💡Fibonacci Levels
💡All Season
💡ETF
Highlights
Altcoins might take a while to show significant movement despite positive news and bullish sentiment.
Key levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others need to be broken to attract new investors and liquidity.
Q3 could be uneventful, cautioning against misinformation from YouTubers that could compromise investment positions.
Historical data suggests a potential Bitcoin rebound in July, supported by strong data.
Market patterns show a tendency for a bottom in June, followed by a retrace and possibly a further decline, which could catch investors off guard.
Current market conditions indicate a strong Bitcoin narrative with high dominance and other coins not performing as well.
Bitcoin is in a potential accumulation zone, which is important for understanding market cycles and distribution.
Scarcity and demand can be a slow process, cautioning against the expectation of immediate market changes.
Liquidity and global economic factors, such as potential bank bankruptcies or SEC actions, could significantly impact the market.
The top 50 cryptocurrencies are expected to perform well, with the rest struggling due to limited liquidity.
Certain assets like Chainlink, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche might benefit from future ETF speculations and Coinbase Futures listings.
Market cycles suggest we are in an accumulation phase, with the potential for a significant markup yet to come.
Altcoins are currently underperforming against Bitcoin, indicating a tough market for altcoin investors.
YouTube content creators may unintentionally skew the market message, leading to potential misinformation.
The speaker plans to change video formats to be neater and more focused on providing quality content.
The total market cap without Ethereum and Bitcoin paints a less optimistic picture, suggesting potential consolidation or decline.
The speaker expresses frustration with the current state of YouTube and the misinformation it can spread, affecting viewer decisions.
The importance of breaking key market levels for altcoins to trigger an alt season is emphasized, with current indicators not being favorable.
The potential for a downtrend in the total market cap to Bitcoin chart, suggesting a possible regression to previous bull market levels.
Transcripts
so as good as some of the news actually
is with altcoins what if this is going
to take a while for it to happen so I've
been talking a lot about herb mentality
I've been talking about the positive
bullish news but I have also been
talking about key levels that I think
especially with Bitcoin ethereum Etc
need to be broken before we start
getting let's just be honest here new
people returning we need liquidity we
need the hype we need elements of
scarcity which we are starting to see
but again Q3 could be absolutely boring
what we don't need is YouTubers
spreading the wrong message at the wrong
time getting you into a position where
it might compromise you I'm going to do
a video on the opposite to what most
people think right now so I covered this
yesterday talking about history suggests
that Bitcoin will Rebound in July and I
don't disagree with that the data is
very strong why I didn't show you was
actually something else later on in said
article we have this now zoomed in a
little bit so you can see it we talk a
lot about the Summers and the summers
are on the most part August is
traditionally a month September is
also relatively most of the time
October November December is what I am
more interested in and we might be
getting that situation again where we've
already had a bit of a run into a summer
every single one of these apart from the
obvious bare markets we have got a
summer of a you know summer period then
a run right run before the summer period
you get the idea similar sort of VI
obviously bare Market again this massive
nuke in the summer similar sort of vibe
here similar sort of vibe here you get
the idea where it's very similar where
often you find there's a bit of a bottom
in June but what I'm more interested in
the fact of is we bottom in June then we
retrace up and then we go even lower
short term or it catches people out
right
I feel if there's going to be a rebound
people will get caught out the reason
why I think that I think that there's
that much information that much news is
bullish news now obviously the ethereum
ETF we can talk about that we could talk
about obviously Global liquidity which
we will talk about but I do think we are
getting to a point where oh my God B
Mark is here but Harvin's only just kind
of been and gone right the reality is
here it is currently Bitcoin season the
Bitcoin narrative is very very strong
bitcoin's hold in station all coins are
not doing much and dominance is still
high we will cover that in more detail
in a second but let's just look at this
so when we look at the obvious here this
probably is a Buy Signal here somewhere
in terms of you buy the lows and you're
waiting for the tops right yeah
obviously the reality is here this is a
history in terms of the past right this
whole region back in the earlier days
and it's kind of obvious the summer was
very much a Bitcoin season all the way
into pretty much August into September
time nothing really happened now we
might be getting that again now I'm not
disputing the fact that we we will get
an all season it's just a matter of fact
it's more it's very hard to time what
timing does give you is you know that
situation where the price gets to a
certain point that hyper returns we've
had that at the start of this year going
down
here this is what the market looks like
now there's some assets that are doing
relatively okay versus Bitcoin you can
see this this is Bitcoin in black and
everything else below it now some stuff
not massively down right even you know
you can see near protocol not down too
much link xapp Etc there's some stuff
that are doing very well ton is the main
one but most of these are actually meme
coins realistically you got obviously
Pepe you got Bonk um obviously B&B is
doing all right ethereum's doing all
right with the ethereum news so yeah
it's um really isn't time for an all
season yet anyways we've also got a look
at what is bitcoin doing now I've got on
my screen and you can't see that just
yet is the rainbow chat now what's
important to note here is Bitcoin is in
a level of potential accumulation Zone
we are ranging and when we talk about
the market cycles and the distribution
of cycles that becomes important so when
we look at this obviously we're at this
kind of level here where this is a
really good situation to look at because
we can look at the Harvin in terms of
the past let's do that Harvin here what
happened oh wow okay not a lot funny
enough we had a weird summer and it kind
of pulled back into this level let's
look at the previous one this one went
lower and then we took a long long long
long time and then we
went again similar sort of situation
here not a lot happens funny enough that
scarcity and demand element is a bit of
a long drawn process it takes time and
this is a problem I have with a lot of
YouTubers at the minute as much as I've
been covering it as well yeah the news
is bullish but the price isn't why isn't
the price moving I've did videos on that
I've did videos around the news but
ultimately why why isn't certain things
happening why when Bitcoin is dropping
why isn't dominance Rising why is the
opposite way around you know when
Bitcoin is pumping why is and dominance
falling you know it's kind whoa okay so
what we are into in my opinion here is
potentially there's still cheap in
accumulation Zone and buy zones we have
been in those levels for a long time we
are almost in basically a fire sale we
are almost in Bitcoin no we're not
really I'm joking but you get the idea
we are very much in that situation where
Bitcoin is accumulating this is
obviously interesting liquidity we are
coming into a point of liquidity turning
we are at this point now where it has
potentially bottomed and we're going to
go up now there's potential rate cuts
that could affect the market there's
obviously other elements around that
that could be important I.E what if
banks go bankrupt you know what about if
the SEC Su certain things you know
there's so many unknown truths but what
we need is liquidity to allow this to
happen the problem we have and this is
obvious let me get you focus because I
think this is bit
important there's a lot more old coins
in 2021 2020 there's a lot more old
coins a lot more old coins so there's
not going to be enough money to go
around the strongest and the fittest
Will Survive and the best old coins will
do well I think the top 50 will be very
very interesting I don't think you're
going to start seeing some random coins
that you can buy which is in page number
3,000 whatever in freaking coin market
cap that's going to pump your backs meme
coins will have that effect in certain
Vibes but I think it's very much a
lottery going down there liquidity will
gravitate to certain things the top top
assets the best product things like
chain link could be speculative guessing
but it could be a potential ETF in the
future likes of cardano likes of polka
do avax they've all had little Nuance
newses about certain things around
coinbase Futures listings that's like
okay that's a bit of a step in the right
Direction you will probably find more
stuff like that happening so yeah we
have to be somewhat careful when we talk
about obviously this this is huge and if
liquidity will return in
2025 well guess where it's going to go
probably a slice of the pie will go into
cryptocurrency assets we also need to
talk about Market cycles and if you know
me and you follow my Channel Please
Subscribe it would be nice also check
out my um X account because I talk a lot
about this in terms of markup
distribution mark down I think we're in
accumulation phase we've not had that
initial markup yet we've had a test
there we've had a baby run but alt coins
are still getting smashed right
especially in the BTC pair this is kind
of what it looks like in simple terms
you've probably seen other graphs that a
bit more complicated but this is kind of
how things go things go up things go
down basically the bits in the middle is
accumulation zones and we have
distribution of taking profit remember
guys taking profit if you want more
videos on me doing profit videos and
stuff like that and like this let me
know because that's kind of what I'm
better at in my opinion anyways so we
need to get that out the way but I've
already talked about it Bitcoin is
potentially in an accumulation Zone we
could be going lower and it could
accumulate even more all coins what are
they doing not a lot maybe
accumulation probably yeah I hate the
world of I really do hate YouTube I do
um I've already mentioned it before on
my patreon and my mmq if you seen that
free video you probably seen one of the
questions
I probably won't be doing YouTube once
it Cycles over I probably will do very
very limited YouTube video
content it's just too much the problem
we have is already you could see on
these two examples last time to buy
altcoins confirmed the bottom you know
huge buying all these kind of stuff is
like crazy numbers there is some stuff
on here when you put on altcoin that is
not it's kind of bullish like obviously
kieran's here that's fine problem we got
is there's too much going on when we get
to a point where literally and this is
going to be the Gods on of Truth here
when you do bullish content about
certain altcoins that are going to pump
and certain things and all that kind of
stuff they get views because people are
interested people want to make money you
guys probably watch my channel through a
certain video what may have got your
interest because it looks good and may
be making money it's a lot harder than
that right so they will continuously do
bullish content that will allow people
to get involved via views and that makes
them feel good YouTubers feel good by
getting views and by comments and likes
right we do because when we put the
effort in we want it to do well for
obvious reasons and I fell into that
trap a long time ago where I was doing
certain types of content which was doing
okay this is back in 2021 but didn't
make me feel good I like psychological
videos I like covering news and
information about technical analysis
what I think and my opinion of the
market is that's kind of how what I like
to do but some people like to speculate
on other people's opinions right and
therefore doing a video around it that's
fine but when the overall message could
be very much skewed due to oh it's just
going to go up because it's July that
could mislead people and that could be
where the problem lies so we have to be
so so careful so when you're looking on
YouTube I've often said this don't
follow too many people because you will
get a lot of skewed information and
you're going to have to make your wrong
decision you're going to be absolutely
scrambled and that could lead to you
going well I've gone down the wrong
Avenue here so let's look at Bitcoin in
a general kind of sense right this is
the previous have and you can see here
how we've done nothing for a very long
time over the summer July we bounced up
and then we pulled back into August and
we went higher now if we're going to
simulate that again we could be looking
at a similar sort of situation or the
same sort of period which could lead us
to about basically September time now
that isn't a wrong thing we are at
levels of well mid-range at the minute
obious obiously we've been at levels of
support this 60k level has to hold
whether you like it or not it has to
hold now when we talk about that we need
to talk about the next leg I've been
talking very openly if you follow me on
X it's my pin post is patience is
required the next leg will send people
in and I talk about it in terms of Dum
money will come into the market at 83k
that is my fundamental belief because I
know it happens and it has happened even
this year it happened right why we went
all the way from this level which to 28k
up to 40K we pulled back from 48 all the
way into 38 and then very very quickly
went from 48,000 38,000 sorry all the
way to 73 what happened everything
went mental didn't it yes it did
boys and girls why people were talking
about the parabolic nature of it and the
left translated cycle and information
around that and we were going to all
make it turns out that left translated
cycle stuff didn't happen we have pulled
back quite aggressively and we're
looking relatively good we are probably
going to be a bit crappy for a while I
think that anyways unless cat to all
this something major changes I.E
liquidity is drawn in there's fear in
the stock market and people are looking
for an alternative Bitcoin will pull the
market up it is very much a Bitcoin
cycle right now so that will change the
game so for me we're talking 83,000 for
the Mania her to come in ethereum is
very similar we are very much in a
bullish Trend but we're starting to show
signs of weakness we've formed a lower
high we've pulled off this level and we
are potentially going to go and retest a
level a bit higher and then we might
come down lower there's rumors already
of I believe the 4th of July maybe or
maybe a bit later than that is ETF day
that's only two days away I know but
that might be allock so we need to wait
and see that could send us lower could
be a lot of liquidity much lower for
ethereum again though the next leg up
from this correction could well be here
now for me I think this is failed so I
think this is out of date so if we're
going to reassemble this and put it all
together again which actually let's just
do that it makes more sense so if we're
looking at the overall situation in my
opinion if we are looking at this this
low to this high this is what I think is
kind of somewhat outdated we've already
went and corrected it we've formed a new
lower high we might go and retest it yes
it's feasible we go and retest this
level again and this could be the
alltime high retest what could happen as
well is the opposite is well what about
from this low into well we've already
went and retested the 618 levels are we
going to go up to the 618 levels up here
which again equals alltime high so
there's a lot of kind of pressure around
the Fibonacci to kind of go you know
what maybe it might happen we might go
618 to 618 that could happen and this
could just be a continuation it's a
higher higher series of higher higher
lows and we're going to continue going
up it's looking unlikely because we
formed a lower high here but as I say
ETF could change everything here
so we got to look at that as a situation
so yeah ethereum is a very very
interesting one and again we've got a
look at the obvious this is a total
three chat from the low to the high
we're pulled back and we're curring on
the 382 yeah it's just a freaking metric
I know but ultimately this doesn't look
great it looks like it's going to
consolidate it doesn't look like it's
got much umph we're below the EMA 21 for
Stars this is all nice and red it's
looking a bit but again it is just an
index of the total Market capab without
ethereum without Bitcoin right so it's
given us as a picture the picture is not
painting a pretty one right now and this
could allow things to happen so what
could happen is Bitcoin could
bounce and altcoins may not follow it if
Bitcoin then goes into August or
September and has a bit of a crappy two
month which is kind of on History which
does
happen altcoins are going to get hurt
quite a lot and there'll be no all
season All Season Could Happen due to
bitcoin going high enough and people
rotate into it but for that that to
happen they've got to find new level
lows in my opinion so that could happen
that could allow us going all the way
down
here yep I know you're all just turned
off right now and I know but yeah what's
wrong with that the reason why this
level is important because if we're
going to do further structure if we're
going to go from this high to this
correction here pull back into the 618
continuous this swing low goes into this
0272 which is roughly around here so we
could be looking at 500 billion to 480
billion I know it's an index shouldn't
really do Ta on it but ultimately that's
a definite possibility so yeah a bit of
FIB setion there if I've lost you check
out the loading crypto links and if I'm
going to kill you even more and I do
apologize look at what is happening here
this is the total 3/ BTC chart this is
in a freaking horrible downtrend and
again I talked about it in my previous
videos that this level is going to act
as resistance if this breaks above it
I'll be probably a bit more excited but
I probably won't be because I don't
think it's going to happen if we're
going to get a regression we're going to
continue going
lower which is not going to be fun if
we're looking at swing targets we're
looking at going down to 43% potentially
which brings us all the way down to the
start of the previous bull market which
is a long long long long time ago so
yeah I don't think alt
seasons are coming anytime soon I do
apologize people are probably like oh
but but please we have to break key
levels and those key levels have to be
broken and things are not looking good
elsewhere it's fine though it's kind of
the market metric and I've talked about
this before in yesterday's video this
time is not different it's fine we are
following the fouryear cycle that's good
but I think people got a bit too excited
too early yes the news is great yes the
ethereum ETF is huge Bitcoin ETF is
actually really really good but we need
the liquidity that's not going to come
just off a button click is it let's be
honest but anyways if you enjoy this
video let me know I'm going to be doing
some little changes to my video format
um going to make it a lot neater and
tidier certainly more with a full phas
hi um so yeah if you enjoy leave a
comment let me know and yes quality
content in coming
[Music]
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