RAPBN 2025 KOK BEGINI !! otw utang tambah banyak - komentar

Summary

The speaker discusses Indonesia's fiscal situation, focusing on the negative primary balance and its reliance on borrowing to pay interest, which threatens long-term fiscal sustainability. While there has been some improvement in recent years, the 2025 budget proposal is criticized for being unrealistic, with ambitious revenue targets and assumptions of high economic growth. The speaker warns that the government’s debt will continue to rise, adding a significant burden to future generations. A call is made for the next administration to reassess the budget to create a more realistic and sustainable fiscal strategy.

Takeaways

• 😀 The primary balance of Indonesia's budget has been negative for years, indicating that government revenue cannot cover even the interest on its debt without borrowing more.
• 😀 The phrase 'digging a hole to fill a hole' (gali lubang tutup lubang) is used to describe how debt payments are often made with new borrowing, a practice ongoing since the era of President SBY.
• 😀 In 2023, the primary balance was positive, but it reverted to negative in 2024, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges despite temporary improvements.
• 😀 The government's debt interest is paid using new loans, which poses a sustainability risk for Indonesia's fiscal future.
• 😀 The projected deficit for 2025 remains negative, with concerns about further increasing Indonesia's debt load by an additional IDR 775 trillion.
• 😀 The proposed 2025 budget is considered overly optimistic, with unrealistic assumptions about revenue growth and economic performance.
• 😀 If the 2025 budget is implemented as proposed, it will add additional burden on future generations, increasing Indonesia's national debt significantly.
• 😀 The speaker recommends a more realistic approach to the 2025 budget, urging for a revised fiscal policy to avoid worsening the debt situation.
• 😀 The post-2024 fiscal outlook shows an ongoing struggle with balancing the budget without relying on further borrowing, creating concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes the need for a sustainable fiscal policy, where the primary balance should be positive, meaning the government can cover its spending without relying on borrowing to pay for interest.

Q & A

What is the primary balance in the context of Indonesia's fiscal situation?

The primary balance refers to the balance between government revenue and expenditures, excluding interest payments on debt. A positive primary balance means the government is not relying on borrowing to pay interest on its debt, while a negative primary balance indicates borrowing to pay for interest.

What does the phrase 'gali lubang tutup lubang' mean in the fiscal context?

'Gali lubang tutup lubang' translates to 'digging a hole to close another,' which describes the practice of borrowing money to pay off existing debt, essentially creating new debt to cover old debt. This is seen as an unsustainable fiscal approach.

Why is a positive primary balance crucial for fiscal sustainability?

A positive primary balance is crucial because it indicates that the government can cover its current expenses without increasing debt. Without it, the government would have to continue borrowing to pay for interest on past debt, which can threaten long-term fiscal stability.

Has the primary balance situation in Indonesia improved in recent years?

Yes, the primary balance situation has slightly improved in the last two years, though it remains negative, meaning the government still borrows to pay for its debt interest. However, the target for 2025 shows improvements despite still being negative.

What are the government's projected targets for 2025 according to the speaker?

The government’s projected budget for 2025 targets a primary balance that remains negative at -2.53%, while expecting a large increase in debt, around 775 trillion IDR, leading to concerns about future fiscal stability.

Why does the speaker consider the budget for 2025 unrealistic?

The speaker considers the budget unrealistic because it assumes overly optimistic targets for tax revenue and economic growth, which may not be achievable. The proposed budget is seen as forcing unrealistic expectations and increasing the country’s debt burden.

What is the concern regarding additional debt in the 2025 budget?

The concern is that the 2025 budget involves taking on an additional 775 trillion IDR in debt, further increasing the fiscal burden and potentially worsening the country's debt situation in the future.

How does the speaker assess the postures of the 2024 and 2025 budgets?

The speaker believes that the postures of both the 2024 and 2025 budgets are weak, with the 2025 budget being even more problematic. The 2025 budget is viewed as technically worse than 2024's, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and unsustainable fiscal practices.

What does the speaker suggest regarding Indonesia’s fiscal policies and future budgets?

The speaker suggests that Indonesia should reconsider its fiscal policies, particularly the 2025 budget, and adopt a more realistic approach. This would involve reducing the reliance on debt and creating a budget that does not increase future burdens.

Why does the speaker believe Indonesia’s fiscal policies are unsustainable?

The speaker believes that the fiscal policies are unsustainable because they rely too heavily on borrowing to cover debt interest and unrealistic targets for revenue and economic growth. This threatens long-term fiscal health and stability, with the risk of continuing to increase the country’s debt burden.