Maersk Trade Talk: To enable better trade
Summary
TLDR在这段访谈中,Jana与嘉宾讨论了海运贸易的现状和未来趋势。嘉宾来自国际海事组织(IMO),他们的角色是帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易。他们通过研究、论坛讨论以及提供技术援助来支持成员国。访谈中提到了集装箱贸易和端到端物流的显著发展,以及供应链危机对通货膨胀的影响。此外,还探讨了政策制定者如何应对海运业的挑战,包括即将到来的能源转型和减碳需求。嘉宾强调了为实现海运业的绿色转型,需要一个可预测的、多边的框架来鼓励投资,并帮助最不发达国家应对气候变化的影响。
Takeaways
- 😀 该访谈讨论了海运贸易的当前状况和未来趋势,以及与全球供应链相关的问题。
- 🌐 国际海事组织(IMO)和世界贸易组织(WTO)的成员国在海运政策和谈判中扮演着重要角色。
- 📈 近年来,海运成本的极端波动和供应链危机对全球贸易产生了显著影响,包括对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响。
- 🚢 船运公司在疫情期间获得了高额利润,但这也暴露了供应链的脆弱性和需要改进的地方。
- 💡 对于政策制定者来说,理解长期趋势和法规对海运成本的影响至关重要,以避免未来潜在的供应链危机。
- 🛳️ 海运业正面临船只尺寸可能达到极限的挑战,这可能会影响行业的整合和竞争。
- 🔍 2023年,IMO将实施新的立法措施,这些措施可能会对航运环境产生影响,包括潜在的成本增加。
- 🌿 能源转型和绿色燃料的采用是海运业面临的主要挑战之一,需要一个可预测和多边的框架来促进投资。
- 📊 技术进步,特别是在供应链可见性和自动化方面,是提高效率和应对未来挑战的关键。
- 🎁 访谈结束时提出的三个愿望包括:实现碳定价、确保及时投资以支持能源转型,以及利用未来技术来推动行业的脱碳。
Q & A
Jana在海事领域的工作职责是什么?
-Jana在海事领域的工作主要是帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易。这包括进行研究,提供公共产品,如海运国家概况的审查;提供论坛供成员国讨论;提供技术援助,如港口培训、改革和智能港口建设合同等。
海运成本上涨对通货膨胀和消费者价格有何影响?
-根据Jana的模拟,海运成本的上涨会导致消费者价格额外增加1.5个百分点。特别是对于低价值大批量产品和高价值产品,这些产品在生产过程中需要多次移动,对供应链的影响更大。
为什么说海运成本的上涨对某些产品影响特别大?
-对于低价值大批量产品,如塑料花园椅,海运成本从2000美元上涨到15000美元会开始产生影响,可能会导致在欧洲不再从亚洲购买,而是在东欧生产。对于高价值产品,尽管运输成本在总价值中所占比例很小,但由于这些产品在生产过程中需要多次移动,因此对供应链的影响也很大。
在海运领域,有哪些因素导致了供应链危机?
-供应链危机的原因包括需求的急剧增加、船舶供应不足、船舶位置错误以及在订单量低时没有新船只加入市场。这些因素共同导致了海运成本的急剧上升。
Jana如何看待未来海运领域的发展趋势?
-Jana认为,未来海运领域将面临能源转型和脱碳化的挑战。此外,他还提到了船只尺寸的停滞不前,以及这可能对行业整合和竞争产生的影响。
为什么说船只尺寸的停滞可能影响海运行业的竞争格局?
-在过去几十年中,船只尺寸的不断增加为能够负担得起的承运商带来了规模经济,使他们能够以更低的成本提供服务。但如果船只尺寸不再增加,那些无法通过增加规模来降低成本的承运商可能会重新开始相互竞争,这可能导致运价下降。
海运行业面临的最大挑战是什么,Jana有哪些建议?
-Jana认为海运行业面临的最大挑战是能源转型和脱碳化。他建议需要一个可预测的、多边的框架来鼓励投资,并避免重复最近的供应链危机。此外,他还强调了技术在提高供应链效率方面的重要性。
为什么说技术进步是海运行业的关键因素?
-技术进步可以帮助实现更高效的供应链管理,例如通过单一窗口、先进的路线规划、海关自动化、智能港口和预到达处理等措施。这些技术的应用可以提高物流效率,降低成本,并增强供应链的透明度和可预测性。
Jana对海运行业的未来有哪些期望或愿望?
-Jana的三个愿望包括:实现碳排放的经济措施和市场基础措施,以使替代燃料具有竞争力;确保及时的投资,以支持能源转型;以及技术的快速发展,以支持海运行业的现代化和脱碳化。
为什么说及时的投资对于海运行业的未来发展至关重要?
-及时的投资对于海运行业的未来发展至关重要,因为它们可以确保有足够的、合适的船舶和基础设施来满足未来的需求。如果投资不足或不及时,可能会导致船舶供应不足,从而推高运输成本,影响全球贸易。
Jana如何看待国际海事组织(IMO)在海运行业未来发展中的作用?
-Jana认为IMO在海运行业的未来发展中扮演着重要角色。他提到了IMO即将实施的一些立法措施,并强调了这些措施对于推动行业向更环保、更可持续的方向发展的重要性。
Outlines
😀 介绍海事贸易和角色定位
在第一段中,Jana作为嘉宾被邀请参与对话,讨论了她在国际海事组织(IMO)的工作和角色。她所在的组织致力于帮助发展中国家更好地进行贸易,通过研究、论坛讨论和提供技术援助来支持成员国。Jana提到了他们对海运国家概况的审查,以及如何通过研究和论坛来帮助成员国理解、谈判和准备,例如在WTO的谈判中。此外,她还提到了对端到端物流和集装箱贸易的观察,以及近期供应链危机对价格和需求的影响。
📈 货运率上涨和供应链危机的影响
第二段中,Jana深入讨论了货运率的大幅上涨以及供应链危机对不同产品的影响。她指出,低价值高体积的产品,如塑料花园椅,以及高价值产品,如医疗设备,都受到了显著影响。Jana还提到了他们如何模拟高运费率对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响,并与IMF的发现相一致。此外,她强调了稳定和可预测的监管环境对于私营和公共部门的投资至关重要。
🚢 航运趋势和船只规模的未来
在第三段中,讨论了航运业的未来趋势,包括货物运输的平均距离、库存持有份额的变化,以及发展中国家进口的增长。Jana指出,尽管长期以来船只的最大尺寸一直在增长,但近年来这种趋势似乎已经停滞。她提出了一个问题,即航运公司是否会继续通过降低运费来竞争,或者是否会因为船只尺寸的稳定而改变策略。此外,她还提到了对航运业进一步整合的潜在影响。
💹 供需曲线变化对航运成本的影响
第四段中,Jana分析了供需曲线的变化如何影响航运成本。她解释了固定成本和变动成本之间的关系如何导致供应曲线变得更陡峭,从而使得运费率更加波动。Jana强调了对未来法规、燃料价格和能源转型的不确定性如何导致投资者犹豫不决,这可能会进一步加剧供应不足和运费上涨。
🌐 IMO法规变化及其对航运业的影响
第五段中,Jana讨论了国际海事组织(IMO)即将到来的法规变化及其可能对航运环境产生的影响。她提到了IMO的短期措施的经济影响评估,并强调了市场基础措施的重要性,这些措施可以提高传统燃料的价格,使替代燃料更具竞争力,并为能源转型提供资金。Jana还指出了这些措施可能对最不发达国家和小岛屿国家的积极影响。
🔄 贸易模式的转变和供应链的重新设计
在第六段中,Jana探讨了COVID-19期间以及之后贸易模式的转变,以及这些转变背后的驱动因素。她提到了企业对于供应链的多元化和重新设计的需求,以及对于更短距离和更少层级的供应链的偏好。Jana还讨论了技术和数据共享在实现更高效和透明的供应链中的作用,以及贸易链项目(TradeLens)的挑战和机遇。
🎯 对未来航运业的三个愿望
在最后一段中,Jana表达了她对航运业未来的三个愿望。首先,她希望建立一个全球性的碳定价机制,以促进替代燃料的发展并为能源转型提供资金。其次,她强调了及时投资的重要性,以及需要一个可预测的框架来避免未来的供应不足。最后,她对技术进步持乐观态度,并鼓励IMO成员国考虑未来的技术发展,以实现航运业的脱碳目标。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡海事组织(IMO)
💡世界贸易组织(WTO)
💡集装箱贸易
💡供应链危机
💡运费率
💡能源转型
💡市场基础措施
💡技术援助
💡贸易便利化
💡碳定价
💡供应链可视化
💡贸易模式转变
💡船队更新
Highlights
Jana在讨论中提到了海事组织(IMO)和世界贸易组织(WTO)在帮助发展中国家改善贸易方面的重要作用。
海事组织提供研究、论坛和技术支持,以帮助成员国改善港口运营和海关自动化程序。
近年来,集装箱贸易和端到端物流的非凡发展,包括运费的大幅上涨和供应链危机。
海事组织通过模拟研究预测了运费上涨对通货膨胀和消费者价格的影响。
高运费对低价值大体积产品和高价值产品的消费者价格影响最大。
政策制定者和利益相关者对航运公司高利润和运费上涨的反应和学习。
海事组织强调了稳定和可预测的监管法律环境对于私人和公共部门投资的重要性。
讨论了航运业的未来趋势,包括航运距离、库存持有份额和发展中国家进口比例的变化。
船队规模和整合的长期趋势,以及当前可能达到的最大船只尺寸限制。
船公司可能停止低价竞争,这可能与贸易地理和供应链的变化或船只尺寸的长期停滞有关。
讨论了航运成本结构的变化,包括固定成本和变动成本对供应曲线和运费波动性的影响。
海事组织强调了未来法规、燃料和CO2价格的不确定性对投资的影响。
国际海事组织(IMO)2023年的立法将对航运环境产生影响,包括短期措施的经济影响评估。
市场基础措施如碳定价可能带来的积极影响,包括为能源转型筹集资金和帮助最脆弱的国家。
讨论了实施市场基础措施的障碍,包括政治因素和国际间的分歧。
疫情加速了供应链的转变,包括对多元化和供应链深度的重新考虑。
技术进步被视为实现供应链可见性和效率的关键,但也存在数据共享和业务模型的挑战。
Jana对未来的三个愿望:碳定价、及时投资以及技术发展,以支持航运业的能源转型。
Transcripts
Jana welcome to this mask trade talk
really happy to have you here happy to
be here thanks for the invite
um maybe we just kick off with uh you
explaining a bit of what you do at home
tag you've been around a couple of
decades what's what's your role what do
you do uh what's your perspective on the
maritime first yeah I'm Chad we like to
say we think debate and deliver and it's
all paid for by your taxes thank you
very much
so our terms of reference are to help
developing countries trade better so we
do research for these public goods like
our review of Maritime transport country
profiles so then we debate we provide a
forum for member countries however
countries are also the member countries
of the WTO World Trade Organization they
are also the member companies of the IMO
International Organization
so by helping them learn understand
negotiate behave them also prepare for
negotiations for example in other
foreign
then the third part they deliver is a
lot of technical assistance
um really going into a port and and
training helping reforming build up
smart ports conception contracts other
groups have Customs automation programs
a lot of practical technical assistance
so all in all and in this thinking here
together the the first part is research
I see as a like interpreters or
translators so we'll try to learn we
participate in academic for a private
sector forward and then we transmit this
to our clients The Negotiator The
Ambassador in Geneva the ministry the
Port Authority Maritime Authority in the
countries I like this image of
translators interpreters are trying to
understand what's going on and certainly
uh over the last couple of years we've
seen an extraordinary set of
developments in particularly container
trade and end-to-end Logistics
um you've been watching trade for as you
said quite some decades
um what what have we learned what have
you learned from observing this most
recent period yeah I mean this huge
search in Freight rates the whole
congestion situation the whole supply
chain crisis
in other flipping segments we had seen
similar situations before we had seen
the three hundred thousand dollars per
day for a dry body carrier 2007-2008 we
had seen not so long ago that oil
tankers all of a sudden became very
valuable you're saying three thousand
dollars per day with the oil price went
negative nobody wanted oil what do I do
with it I need an oil tanker to store it
and if you need 20
containers or container ships or oil
tank as a driver candle and they are
only 19.
the elasticity of demand and yeah both
economists needs
the price goes through the roof I pay
whatever it takes now the most recent
supply chain crisis or the container
restraint which is about two-thirds of
value of shipping now it's in the
containers
um so
so I really want this
Smartphone for Christmas I really need
this screw as a spare part I really need
this component to build my Globus
production so I pay whatever it takes
and then we say that's in a very steep
demand curve and if then the supply
moves to the left the Steep supply curve
because shifts spend 20 more important
because the containers are at the wrong
place because the crisis called in the
wrong moment when the order book was
very low there were no new Ships coming
it was crazy they went through the roof
and then another lesson learned then
from this particular one
we are quite proud that now a bit more
than a year ago we simulated the impact
on inflation on consumer prices so a
year what September October we did that
simulation
we did not yet see inflation there were
policy makers academics
columnists of the New York Times writing
don't worry
he said well at least these high Freight
rates in container shipping and our
simulation will lead to 1.5 additional
Consular prices
it's only that little in the bottom but
six months later the IMF I think you
used to work there so I think they are
trustworthy they measured they measured
what really caused the then surging
inflation
they said 1.5 percentage points was due
to higher Freight rate so we were really
spot on and of course they're different
products
and it is true that for many products
you say notice today whether the freight
rate is 2000 or 15 000.
but I found interesting two types of
products are particularly
impacted one type of product are very
cheap
like low value high volume think of
plastic garden chairs yeah Container
full of white plastic if they're the
freight rate goes up from two thousand
to fifteen thousand
starts making a difference and you then
no longer buy them in Europe made in
Asia or you would start making them in
southern Eastern Europe instead and the
other one that I found even more
interesting
some very high value products
the only small part of the values is yes
but during the production process of
that high value Optical medical
equipment cost
the inputs The Unfinished products the
bits and pieces are moved several times
very so-called deep Supply chains so
there for some of these products our
simulation said
10 11 12 percent additional
percentage points additional consumer
prices on these products but I think
Lessons Learned
first of all it matters and a little
shortage of Supply can lead to a high
increase I think we come back to this
later and discuss with the few 20
carbonization and energy transition
and well it actually does matter for
prices and
so yeah we were quite a lot in in the
Press with our simulation because I want
to report with this Bloomberg Financial
Times oil wow and that was one of the
Lessons Learned in the dialogue uh you
and and what we've had with with policy
makers has also been a lot of learnings
there from their side how have you seen
that have you seen that sort of insight
and supply chain evolving and they're
thinking around the the policies around
Supply chains and resilience
yeah especially during these last couple
of years unfortunately there was a lot
of playing game of course I understand
that the people's stakeholders policy
makers are not happy
carriers did make high profits and the
freight rates went up and waiting time
schedule reliability went down so
we really tried to contribute to the
understanding what are the long-term
underlying courses and Trends what
explains differences in Freight rates
um come up with some suggestions about
trade efficiency and ports about
regulation there's a lot of discussion
what Anti-Trust Community should be
given to alliances or not so so we
really try to be neutral and look at the
facts and like this yeah help policy
makers Regulators stakeholders
um yeah come to
amicable constructive Positive Solutions
yeah and in this particular reason yeah
we can call it surprise supply chain
crisis
uh
I think one of the Lessons Learned is to
continue the previous question
the need for the
stable predictable environment
regulatory legal environment
private sector and public sector need to
invest early in time and to do this you
need to know what will be the future
price of carbon what will be the future
regulation and the future energy source
and so and they all need to move
together they I mean the carriers the
energy generators the energy provider
supports the distributors
uh and there yeah I think
speaking to our stakeholders Partners
member states who then negotiate at the
IMO at Angel WTO I think that's one of
the things rather than having blame
games about this moment and why do you
make more money than I
let's think about Lessons Learned let's
think about the real challenge ahead the
energy transaction the decarbonization
and make sure we get this right we don't
have this type of this direction again
yeah
welcome back to this uh energy and and
uh transition in a moment but you
mentioned that
um uh there were Trends and as we are
coming the end of 2022 and we looked at
2023 there's obviously a lot of focus on
what's coming next what's coming at us
over the next 12 months and Beyond
um what what lays ahead what are you
focused on in terms of the trends ahead
uh in the maritime space yeah it's
really
interesting you have all these data sets
which we've since the 1960s that you
have these long-term trends like
the
the average distance traveled per turn
off cargo over the decades has gone up
like iron off from Brazil goes more to
China less to Europe Angie from Trinidad
goes more to Japan the less to the U.S
long longer distances
the last year maybe 21 compared to 20
that's where we have the data for the
first time in many years actually this
went slightly down
the Shelf expenditure on inventory
holding these are the extensional
transport the long term
the share of inventory holding went down
more efficiency more just in time better
trade visitation
last year it went slightly up
the fear of developing countries Imports
including China for decades it's
increased last year it slightly
decreased so
this is data it's hard to it and said no
does this now mean
a change a long-term trend
or is this just a hiccup during the
crisis including the Warner crime
including lockdowns including
supply chain crisis
or will we go back and we will then go
back to the long-term Trend so
I don't know to answer your question but
this is the type of thing we are
monitoring it's beautiful that nowadays
with all the AIS data data on ships like
I know where every field is right now
how fast is going from Air to where so
you have a lot of interesting data also
for trade the geography of trade from
this type type of data but another
specific thing is you ask like looking
ahead
um
and as you say I this particular thing
of the ship sizes and consolidation
shipping concentration process I've
looked at this since 1996 when I was
working at the I'm older than Eckler
um
we have never had such a long period
that the maximum ship size has not
increased further as we have now
it's now since probably before covid we
have 24 000 Tu and they have not gone up
and now the biggest ships container
ships are roughly as big as the biggest
oil tankers and biggest driver you know
so
question is
will be now finally over having said for
decades this is now the biggest it will
not now maybe now we have reached the
biggest now this one you know better
than me you you are you know what you
are ordering I think they are on the
order book up to 28 000 teu or not other
books on the drawing boards but I do
think that we will reach or have reached
the limit and this has always
implications on the further process of
consolidation
and the likelihood that the deer
carriers will resume undercutting each
other because as long as ship sizes went
up
those who could afford it they bought
the biggest trip
they do generated economies of scale
you could offer the cost that you
produced your service at a lower cost
per container
but what did you do with the oil ship
you returned to the owner or you sold it
if it was used so they didn't they're
not script and this led for decades to
an oversupply with which you know a
damage LED for decades to a very low
rates of return
so now we have at the same time
coincidentally unfortunately for anybody
who wants to study causes in history and
natural experiment we have at the same
time the covet crisis supply chain
crisis and probably the plateau or the
ship size so if from now on
the carriers stop undercutting each
other we don't know whether it is
because of some change with the
geography trade in the supply chain or
because we have finally stopped this
huge long-term physics cycle
so does that speak then to an
expectation that perhaps you see an
environment where you can change the
environment we've seen this
um almost uh for several decades long
reduction in in great roads so some
fishes has been realized to maybe a
plateau into maybe even a potential
increase especially when you consider
the additional costs of the energy
transition and all of the other
uncertainties that supply chain is
having to deal with is that is that a
scenario together with a lot of
volatility I think
that over the decades we have seen a
change in the
type of cost and the variable visually
the fixed costs in producing shipping
service
if you have a smaller older ship
you have higher variable costs to
produce the service
you have to pay your seafarers your fuel
your communication
if you have a modern bigger fib
the variable costs are lower like
instead of expensive phone calls you
have almost no cost fixed you have a
flat rate for your communication and so
on and so forth fuel efficiency
but the fixed costs are much higher
so if you translate this in a supply
curve in a production function it means
when when there's enough Supply there's
a lot of competition a lot of owners
offer their container film
and they're still we know this from good
old times when my family had a little
flipping business so Captain Hoffman he
had to pay his seafarers he had to pay
the bank he had to pay his fuel
communication
and but as long as he would pay this he
would Charter his twin Decker at a very
low price then at times there was a lot
of demand not enough ships then it went
up a lot
so this supply curve has become steeper
due to this change variable caused by a
fixed cost
and a steeper supply curve also means
that if there's a shift in demand it
becomes more volatile
so I'd like to explain it with curves
moving from the left to the right but I
hope intuitively this is if if we just
imagine there's a ship owner
who doesn't want to lose money obviously
so
as long as you can pay the
variable cost that's right but at some
point in time he has to pay back his
bank so at some point in time the
average has to go up and then they go up
even further yeah so it's it's more and
we see the data the freight rates the
container Charter rates over the decades
have become more volatile I think this
is one of the reasons it's change from
the variable fixed cost relationship
it's a very good insight and I think you
know if you're if you're a customer or a
buyer though so if it's something you
need to be very much aware of when you
think about how you want to play in a
spot Market or a contract Market to try
and uh hedge or play out some of that
volatility
um just keeping that framework in and if
we think about we're talking earlier
about sustainability and then the
transition to Green fuels how do you see
that playing into that analysis you just
presented with the the cost curves and
so on how does that how does that likely
play out in that framework
yeah we really see a danger there and we
highlighted this and when we launched
our Rivier white and transport our
Secretary General put this in her key
Lessons Learned points
um the this uncertainty about the future
regulation Future Fuels future price of
CO2
makes investors wait I mean it's obvious
well it's difficult to measure what
would be the investment in new ships
Newports new internet if we knew we
could use the same fuel for many more
decades maybe at the same but there's a
lot of anecdotal evidence a lot of we
speak to the at conferences and
stakeholders important a lot of evidence
that investors are waiting and what does
waiting mean it means again my mindset
the supply curve moves to the left it
means
if there's no demand coming back and I'm
we're talking about
many more up to 2050 we are really
talking about the decades to come so
there will be ups and downs Economic
Development and demand and searches and
but if we are all waiting too much and
too long
so I think one of the Lessons Learned
here is
um we really need a predictable ideally
multilateral framework that all
stakeholders
invest and we avoid the repetition of
this what we saw recently this there was
not enough Supply and trade rates went
through the roof yeah
immediately ahead of us we have some
legislation coming in through through
IMO in 2023.
um can you speak to that a little bit
about what that aims to do and what the
impact could be on on the shipping
environment
um yeah it's very important and we work
really closely positively with with the
IMO we have I believe sincerely helped
the IMO process by doing an impact
assessment of the short-term measure so
before the IMO members were willing to
agree on these short-term efforts they
um what do you know what is the economic
impact impact on Maritime Logistics
costs impact on trade impact on GDP and
we did this for every ship in the world
every journey of every shift in the
world then we aggregated this into 11
industry segments every pair of country
and concluded
order of magnitude like
how much Maritime Logistics costs will
go
up like
Plus
two percent depending on which scenario
which leads to a decrease in trade by
0.2 percent quarter magnitude which
leads to a decrease of GDP by 0.02 so
this is just not the exact numbers it's
all in our reports but to get the order
of magnitude and I found this
fascinating overall it means
it's not a lot I feel like feed like
Freight rates went up five-fold now and
and other rates went up 10 forward and
and now we're talking about
two percent if you draw it on the line
and we did this for you I'm more report
like you put the freight rate volatility
and then you put on top of this what
would two percent increase mean and if
you say I don't see it yeah look there's
a green line and you know how they don't
see it but it is not nothing I think
this is important it's not zero and for
us important
um
the uh those who are more negatively
impacted are the least developed
countries in this wild and developing
States so this is for us architect very
important
um and in that sense coming back to to
the what is in the future what may come
out of IMO negotiations
um
we believe there are a lot of advantages
in the price on on covered call it the
internalization of externalities called
a levy called a contribution called an
economic measure Market based measure
but we need to make alternative Fields
competitive that you can only do this by
increasing the price of the traditional
ones and the beauty of this method is it
can generate funds it generates funds
that can be invested in the energy
transition and it can help those least
developed countries more vulnerable more
export dependent the small island States
who are not the culprits of climate
change so they're the ones most
negatively affected by climate change
and I've been to quite a few islands
where you can see the impact they're
most affected it's not their fault and
now they will also be most affected by
climate change litigation that's not
fair so that's why I think this measure
as an economist it's that's where we
have to go it helps have a
predictable clearer future framework not
to discourage investment it makes
alternative Fields competitive
and it generates funds that can actually
be reassigned
to help the energy transition and to
help the most vulnerable yeah I think we
would wholeheartedly agree being the
Leading Edge of investing into renewable
fuels and ships in in the maritime space
I think this is a key a key element that
would would assist that what are the
roadblocks getting us there do you see
that being
achieved in the next few years is it
something that is further off what what
what do you think of the elements
let's not treat ourselves this leads to
higher shipping costs yeah
by how much is a lot or not compared to
what but
it leads to effort because in countries
that depend more on shipping exports
that depend on exporting fresh beef and
don't want this to be frozen beef
because ships have to go slower or
countries that depend on exporting
cherries grapes avocados long distance
or low value Goods iron or long distance
I mean they are worried and and we have
to be realistic that they are rightly
right
now what I honestly think is that by
delaying the decisions
by maintaining the uncertainty
the real impact on freight rates is
worse like delaying the decision makes
it more expensive
delaying the decision we just need to
lead to the need to do more even later
and during the process this uncertainty
leads to not enough investment shift of
the supply curve to the left and even
more increase of freight rates so those
countries who depend on Lower freight
cost are understandably worried
but I sincerely believe it is also in
these countries interest
to to agree on whatever as long as we
have the stability that is one stumbling
block sincere valid interest the other
one is the politics the legislation
there's the oil pollution compensation
from there are some examples where you
have funds but we are talking about a
lot of money here
um
what name do we give it there are
certainly member countries of of the UN
of the IMO who are very reluctant
to
anything that's made like a tax globally
so I think that's another stumbling
block it's a how do you formulate it who
really collect it where would it be
stored who decides what to do with it
how do we call it it's also it's not a
pretext it's a real challenge more for
the lawyers and policy makers and then
different governments may change
political parties in key countries so I
think that's another real stumbling book
oh it's very insightful we certainly
value all of the efforts that you're
putting in to kind of make those
arguments and and get the right
discussions in the right places we focus
quite a bit now on so the supply side
and the slacker yeah yeah can we switch
a bit to the demand curve because it's
the intersection of the two that kind of
gives the picture of the market and
um it happened before Kobe but a lot of
talk about shifting trade patterns have
accelerated during covert and after
covid and you engaged in statistics
earlier so maybe hints at some of that
um how are you thinking about that what
are you seeing in terms of those shifts
what's driving those
um potential shifts and trade packings
from what from what you're seeing yeah
yeah there's been all this talk about
neo4 in French Foreign labels
um
and also this other label
um rather than just in time have just in
case
I don't like either of these
um
let's say the just in time just in case
what is Justin time actually even if you
want to keep a higher stock of inventory
holding as a reserve
you still want to be efficient you still
want to to keep that level at that level
you don't want to to have rubbed it down
if if the crisis catches you when you're
at zero and it still didn't help you at
all to start with a higher stock I mean
it doesn't make sense
uh so you still want to have the most
efficient
just in time delivery you want the
things when you need them
um what I find more important is
diversification that we do see
and this is from your industry you
produce chips cameras cars whatever
you don't want to depend on only very
few supplies I I myself I like
photography and I remember it was a
point in time where Nikon could no
longer produce its cameras because the
one Factory that produced one component
was in Bangkok and there were Flats in
Bangkok and there was a so you may not
want to diversify
so
by the same token the the whole
diversification resilience of trade
demand I think
we see two things
we should see
more diversification
just logically if there is some
elasticity of demand towards the cost of
transport
we will see somewhat lower distances the
classic example always given like United
States imports from China compete with
United States imports from Mexico if
shipping costs go up
Mexico's Fair will somewhat increase
vis-a-vis the Chinese and this we had
also in our model and we did the impact
assessment for the IMO what would higher
Logistics costs mean higher Maritime
invested costs in our model we did see
like the exports from China to the S
would go down a little more than the
exports from Mexico to the US you know
so we it's this is one thing the a bit
slightly for the distance it's a bit
more identification but I do not really
see the more just less just in time or
more warehousing you don't really see it
you were talking about the um
the shift from
um just single source to multi-sourcing
yeah and what's the other side of that
now if you're looking for Logistics
providers to support you do you then
require a different model and sort of
like also the
yeah but I think we will probably see
to be more careful about like two deep
Supply chains now with more risks higher
costs more uncertainty to bit resilience
you don't really want
to have a CTS we had one Asian karmic I
had to recall cars
and they found out the component of the
component of the component that didn't
work
was like the ninth level of the in the
supply chain
so they can no longer control this
and now with higher volatility higher
freight costs the need for more
resilience
you if all these nine steps have to be
shipped
you may not want this you may want to
have I don't know only five or six I
don't know so the Deep Supply chains
they are part of this beautiful
globalized efficiency and
in globalized world and it's it's a lot
of positive things that we all benefit
from
but apart from the diversification
I see also probably some there's a good
reasons not to try to have too deep
Supply chains this I think you raise
this uh you had this phrase in your
report called resilience by Design is
that what you're speaking to hear that
rather than try to impose a resilient
framework on top of a flawed design
system you actually try and redesign it
but all this takes time yeah it takes I
mean all the
also what we saw now with the supply
chain crisis there where people said
we might have had it in any case in a
few years
because investment wasn't catching up
especially in the United States ports
the whole Intermodal system the port
system the working arrangements and
so we had this surge in demand with
stimulus packages
but that same increase in demand might
have come in any case two three four
years later and we might
also have had this congestion but I
don't know it's a bit hypothetical but
all this to the need to plan in time and
and foresee this type of demand and
again we come back to the need for
predictable
framework
otherwise I delay my investments yeah
this predictability visibility
also speaks to technology and Supply
chains and this is the Silver Bullet
that many are looking to to realize
dreams that have been there for many
years decades it must speak to
logisticians that they always thought
about these visible real-time Supply
chains where they can monitor and a bad
run and adjust
is this the moment is technology you
know where we need it to be to
facilitate those seamless end-to-end
physical actionable Supply chains we
have seen a lot of
um
progress during the last two three years
in programs that we have been promoting
and worked on it at Ankita for for
decades we have been promoting single
Windows Advanced routing custom
automation smart ports pre-arrival
processing
e-payments electronic signatures
and many stakeholders were a bit
reluctant you know in public private
sector
Brokers agency no no I prefer this to be
inefficient because then the client
needs to be even more
um so difficult to quantify but I would
say you have like three times more
demand and interest in this over the
last couple of years than the previous
comparable period
and and now I like to say we we have to
lock in the progress made during
lockdown you know so I hope we won't go
back to bad old practices but we have
seen progress in this and you know there
have been of leading initiatives and
I've asked people working this they also
have worked on this for 10 years 20
years and would this also have happened
without covet and Andrei simmer from MSC
told me no it will not have happened
without
accelerated a lot of a lot of things I
mean
um yet despite the technology being
there there are key elements that still
need to come together to data sharing
and in our recent experience with with
tradelines I think it's a very good
example of that so I think there's an
industry maturity on there that's needed
as well to realize in fact I mean the
trade lens I confess I was surprised I I
would say I was disappointed that this
didn't work out we had the very early
stages when it was not even called trade
limits
we had a colleague from
treatments in our actual offices he gave
a briefing it was really interesting
discussion we connected with our custom
automation systems at secuda so I would
have hoped that this crisis would have
motivated even more to get it over the
threshold but apparently it didn't but
then you cannot ask me I have to ask you
what what happened why did it not work
out yeah I think it comes back to this
data sharing issue and I think that
there are other Industries are very
competitive where this this works I
think it's a journey right it's a
maturity that needs to be reached before
you get to that realization of the of
the of the win-win uh of the sharing
data so Technologies could be there a
straight line we're showing it's just
that sort of commercialization of it and
the business model around it yeah this
has been a fantastic conversation
fascinating insightful as ever
um I like to end up on sort of three uh
points if you will and as we're
approaching Christmas perhaps three
wishes on your list for next year what
uh what would they be uh if you uh could
uh make that list okay yeah no dreaming
is free of charge
uh yeah I think the first one we had
discussed came up several times
this necessity to have a price on card I
have an economic measure and
market-based measure to to make
alternative view it's competitive
and at the same time
generate funds that can be used and
invested and have a stable multilateral
preferably not different regions
framework so here I'm not criticizing
the IMO but on the country we have
really sincerely very supportive of the
efforts made by IMO delegates by IMO
Secretariat but I think the more we look
at it and what is happening we have seen
a shift in mindset so my wish list for
Christmas would be let us hopefully
Advance with with these economic
measures in
the second one is the
yeah the the fear of not investing
enough in time which is linked to the
uncertainty we don't have certainty
there's not enough investment and we got
some criticism on on social media
comments
I mean in our latest transfer we said we
need more Investments and then people
said well look at the order book
and look how Freight rates are going
down and look at the poor carriers who
will lose money in two or three years
because there will be too many too big
ships
these are two different things uh there
is the whole Peak cycle situation the
fitting cycle the volatility and yes
things happened as in the past fips were
bought when there was money and ordered
and they take two three four years to be
delivered but we are really think about
the much longer term issue of the
investment in the energy transition that
requires this predictable framework and
it requires Investments on a far bigger
scale so I wanted to clarify this that
I'm not saying that there will not be
enough ships in two years but we will
not have the right trips and enough
infrastructure ships in 10 years from
now if we don't get it right
and The Third Wish For Santa Claus
is the
technology I think I said earlier
[Music]
or maybe I didn't but like technological
progress will never be as slow as today
of course it's not slow it's fast but
it's going to be even faster
and
one lesson learned from another set of
negotiations that took place in Geneva
was at the WTO the World's Trade
Organization negotiations on the trade
facilitation agreement which started in
2004.
concluded in 2013.
at the beginning of the negotiations
there were proposals that said
every country and every Customs
Authority must publish the duties and
rules and forms to fill out on the
internet
of course I mean like obvious
but at that time 2004-2005 there were
least developed countries that said
I don't have the technology
is too expensive I cannot invest and so
on
and these were sincere valid concerns
but already that time
Ankita is advisor to The Negotiator said
technology will advance
don't set the rules now
on today's technology but think of the
future Technologies negotiations are
slower than technological progress yeah
so
um
John Kerry was criticized for saying
that
the Technologies we need to decarbonize
doctor stripping but generally
they don't yet exist
in Gator from I have a lot of respect
sincerely fee criticized to be reduced
for this and I disagree with her I agree
with John Kelly
he cannot
plan for future needs of the energy
transition thinking only of today's
existing technology so there's so much
progress being made so many forecasts
about the capacities of batteries about
the Outreach of electric cars and so we
were always too conservative and again
from my experience with these
negotiations at the WTO
negotiations were slower than
technological progress so dear member
states of the IMO think along those
lines prepare the decarbonization of
shipping thinking about the future
Technologies and let us be optimistic
they will come with
thank you and that's a great way to end
on an optimistic now thanks a lot thank
you
[Music]
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