The Impact of the American Megadrought on Food Supply Chains
Summary
TLDR在这段视频中,俄亥俄州立大学风险研究所的执行董事菲尔·雷诺讨论了美国西部特大干旱对食品供应链的影响。他指出,人们在面对危机时往往会有恐慌性购买行为,如COVID-19初期抢购卫生纸和洗手液,以及北卡罗来纳州因殖民管道问题而出现的紧急状态导致的抢购汽油现象。干旱导致了草莓、杏仁等作物产量的减少,引发了对食品供应短缺的担忧。雷诺强调,食品供应链需要适应这种极端天气事件的增加频率和严重性,可能需要从欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大等地寻找替代供应链。此外,他还提到了气候变化对全球食品生产的影响,以及减少化石燃料使用对缓解这些问题的重要性。
Takeaways
- 📈 美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链产生了直接影响,可能导致消费者恐慌性购买行为。
- 🛒 消费者在面对紧急情况,如COVID-19大流行或科洛尼尔管道事件时,表现出了恐慌性购买行为。
- 🌱 干旱影响了西海岸的农作物,如草莓和杏仁,这可能导致供应链从美国西海岸转移到欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大或其他地区。
- 🍓 食品与一般商品不同,它不能长时间储存,这增加了供应链管理的复杂性。
- 📊 干旱导致的食品短缺可能迫使人们改变购买习惯,比如购买更多食品以备不时之需。
- 🚛 供应链依赖于特定地区的食品供应,这可能因干旱而受到挑战。
- 🌎 气候变化导致的极端天气事件,如风暴和洪水,对食品供应链产生了更广泛的影响。
- 🍽️ 随着经济的开放和餐馆业务的恢复,对食品的需求可能会增加,从而给供应链带来额外压力。
- 🔄 食品供应链通常能够从多个来源获取产品,但当主要供应源受影响时,可能需要依赖次级供应商。
- 💧 干旱导致的水资源短缺,如拉斯维加斯附近的米德湖水位下降,可能对农作物生长造成影响。
- 🌿 虽然美国其他地区有大量农业,但它们可能没有准备好突然为西部地区提供服务,因为它们需要满足自己区域的客户。
- 🌍 作为全球社会,我们需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响,并采取行动减少这种影响。
- 🛠️ 企业需要在供应链中加入风险管理,以应对这些不断变化的天气模式和潜在的供应链中断。
Q & A
美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链有何直接影响?
-美国西部的严重干旱直接影响了农作物的生长,尤其是草莓和杏仁等作物,这可能导致这些作物的供应短缺,进而影响食品供应链的稳定性和消费者的购买行为。
在COVID-19疫情期间,消费者的购买行为有哪些变化?
-在COVID-19疫情初期,人们出现了恐慌性购买行为,如抢购卫生纸、洗手液等商品。这种恐慌性购买行为在后来逐渐减少,因为人们意识到食品供应是稳定的。
为什么说当前的干旱情况与历史上的干旱有所不同?
-当前的干旱情况与历史上的干旱不同,因为它发生在全球气候变化的大背景下,伴随着极端天气事件的增加,如风暴、洪水等,这些都需要在食品供应链管理中予以考虑。
食品供应链如何应对极端天气事件的挑战?
-食品供应链可以通过多源采购来应对极端天气事件的挑战,例如在非产季从智利、南美和墨西哥等地进口浆果,在产季则从美国西海岸获取。
干旱对农作物生长的具体影响是什么?
-干旱会导致农作物缺水,影响其正常生长,可能会减少农作物的产量和质量,从而影响食品的供应。
为什么说食品供应链的“及时”(just-in-time)模式面临挑战?
-“及时”模式在依赖特定地区食品供应的情况下面临挑战,因为如果主要供应地区出现问题,如干旱,那么需要迅速切换到其他供应源,这可能会考验二级或三级供应商的供应能力。
如何减少化石燃料对食品供应链的影响?
-作为全球社会,我们需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响,并采取行动减少其影响,比如通过减少车辆使用、提高能源效率等措施。
为什么说食品供应链管理需要考虑风险管理?
-食品供应链管理需要考虑风险管理,因为极端天气事件和其他不可预测的因素都可能对供应链造成影响,通过风险管理可以提高供应链的韧性和适应性。
如何提高食品供应链对极端天气事件的适应性?
-提高食品供应链的适应性可以通过多元化供应源、建立缓冲库存、采用可持续的农业实践以及加强供应链的灵活性和响应能力来实现。
为什么说当前的干旱情况可能导致新的恐慌性购买行为?
-由于公众对干旱情况的认识增加,担心食品短缺,可能会引发新的恐慌性购买行为,尤其是在食品供应受限或预期会受限的情况下。
经济重新开放和餐饮业恢复对食品供应链有何影响?
-经济重新开放和餐饮业的恢复可能会导致食品需求的增加,因为人们开始外出就餐,这可能会给食品供应链带来额外的压力。
Outlines
🌍 美国西部严重干旱对食品供应链的影响
本段讨论了美国西部严重干旱对食品供应链的直接影响。Phil Renault,俄亥俄州立大学风险研究所的执行董事,分享了他对当前情况的观察,包括消费者购买行为的变化,以及干旱对作物,特别是西海岸作物如草莓和杏仁的影响。讨论还涉及了人们在新冠疫情期间的恐慌性购买行为,以及这种购买模式如何在面对干旱时再次出现。此外,还探讨了食品浪费问题和供应链的即时性问题,以及依赖特定地区食品供应的挑战。
🛒 消费者恐慌购买行为及其对食品供应链的影响
这段内容深入探讨了消费者在面对危机时的恐慌购买行为,如COVID-19大流行初期的卫生纸抢购潮,以及北卡罗来纳州因殖民管道问题宣布紧急状态后人们抢购燃油的情况。讨论了这种心理行为背后的动因,并提出了经济重新开放和餐饮业复苏可能对食品供应链产生的压力,尤其是当人们渴望外出社交时对食品的额外需求。此外,还提到了食品供应链的灵活性,如何根据季节变化从不同地区获取产品,以及当前干旱情况下可能需要重新考虑的供应链策略。
🌱 极端天气事件对农业和食品供应的挑战
在这一段中,讨论了极端天气事件,如干旱和洪水,对农业产出和食品供应的影响。提到了密歇根湖的水位下降对作物所需水资源的影响,以及西部地区前所未有的高温对作物生长的威胁。此外,还讨论了气候变化导致的风暴频率和强度增加,以及这些极端天气事件对食品供应链的挑战。最后,提出了作为全球社会需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响,并采取行动减少其影响,同时强调了风险管理在供应链中的重要性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡干旱
💡食品供应链
💡恐慌性购买
💡气候变化
💡风险管理
💡依赖性
💡即时供应链
💡殖民管道
💡经济复苏
💡极端天气事件
💡全球社会
Highlights
美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链产生了直接影响,可能引发恐慌性购买行为。
COVID-19大流行期间,人们曾出现恐慌性购买卫生纸和洗手液等商品的行为。
北卡罗来纳州由于Colonial Pipeline事件宣布紧急状态,导致人们恐慌性地在加油站购买燃油。
干旱导致的作物产量下降,可能迫使供应链从欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大等地寻找替代来源。
食品与一般商品不同,不能长期储存,这增加了供应链管理的复杂性。
食品供应链已经习惯了根据季节从多个来源调配产品。
干旱导致的供应问题可能因为依赖特定地区的食品供应而加剧。
公众对干旱的认识可能会引发食品方面的新一轮恐慌性购买。
随着经济的开放和餐厅业务的恢复,可能会对食品供应链产生额外压力。
食品供应链需要能够灵活地从次要供应商网络中调配资源以满足需求。
美国西部湖泊水位的下降可能会影响作物的灌溉,加剧供应问题。
过去美国西部的一系列干旱事件可能为当前情况提供了一些应对经验。
气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发,对食品供应链构成挑战。
全球社会需要认识到化石燃料对气候变化的影响,并采取行动减少其影响。
COVID-19期间的地缘空间映射显示,减少化石燃料使用能迅速改善环境。
企业需要将风险管理纳入供应链,以应对不断变化的天气模式带来的挑战。
俄亥俄州立大学的风险研究所等组织致力于帮助解决这些实际问题。
Transcripts
[Music]
the impact of the mega drought in the
western u.s
on food supply chains topic of my
discussion today with phil renault he is
executive director of the risk institute
at the ohio state university hi phil
hi bob thanks for uh thanks for sharing
your uh your podcast with me today
and thanks for joining me as if the
pandemic weren't enough as if economic
recession weren't enough we have a
drought in the western united states
which seems extremely
persistent and of course it's going to
have a direct impact on food supply
chains but i'd like to hear from you
what are some of the observations that
you've seen with regard to food supply
availability consumer buying behavior
what are the big takeaway points that
you're seeing right now as a result of
this
uh particular event yeah i think bob
it's
it's a very very interesting
conversation because if we look back at
buying behaviors during covid
we think about the early onset of coven
how did people react they ran to the
supermarkets to buy
toilet paper and and uh other
commodities hand sanitizer etc etc
uh to gear up if we think about just a
couple of weeks ago with the behavior
um and i was talking to with a friend of
mine in north carolina earlier today
the colonial pipeline north carolina
created a
state of emergency what was the
immediate behavior
the immediate behavior was run to the
filling stations
and fill up your car he was talking
about
people running in with trash bags and
filling up trash bags with fuel etc etc
so it's this panic buying behavior that
seems to have
kind of emerged during covid so
our thinking now is with the drought and
that's serious because we've
experienced the worst
temperature change since the 1880s
if you think about that that's massive
and what's the impact on crops so
we've got strawberries and we've got
almonds and we've got all sorts of
different crops that are
that are originated in in the west coast
of uh
of the us does now that suddenly mean
that i need to change
my supply chain for those crops to
europe
or latin america or canada or other
areas that
may not be experiencing those severe
droughts
so not only do we have this panic
buying scenario that people are saying
well strawberries are going to be
a short supply so therefore i'm going to
buy as many as i can
the challenge with food though is it
wastes yeah
you can't keep them around that long i
can't keep it in my garage and you know
for the
time space that i need it or hand
sanitizer
food's going to weigh so i need to kind
of gear up and
and make sure that i've got a supply for
that week's family needs
so it creates a whole different kind of
set of dynamics
that we in society today are very used
to
just in time right and we've done a very
very good job of that
in the supply chain to create this
just-in-time
process as things like
dependency on food supplies from certain
areas of the country
that will always challenge us or will
continue to challenge us going forward
now this is interesting because
certainly we saw panic buying in the
early
weeks and months of the pandemic but
that sort of tapered off a little bit as
people realized that grocery stores were
not going to close
that the food was going to be there and
we got back to what might be considered
somewhat normal levels of grocery buying
more than usual because so many people
were at home maybe i don't know
but you're saying now that there's
enough of a public awareness
of this drought that that might spark a
new round
of panic buying on the food side i mean
it could
i mean i there's no guarantees there but
you look at the you look at the behavior
of people um you know this this colonial
pipeline for example while it's not food
it demonstrates the panic buying that
exists today
so people's tendencies and behaviors
seem to be changing based upon the news
cycles that are out there so
suddenly we realize that it was not a
supply problem
in colonial right it was not a supply
problem yeah
it was in effect a supply chain problem
why
because driver shortages couldn't get
enough drivers in the seats to get the
product to the filling stations
so if we create our own sense of
emergency our own sense of panic here
by governors in the case of north
carolina's
creating a state or a state of emergency
so the reaction of the buying public is
oh
there's got to be something much worse
than what i'm seeing
therefore my reaction is panic buying
psychological for sure it's
psychological now
i'm also wondering if as the economy
opens up and specifically as restaurants
begin doing business again
will there be an even greater new need
for food i mean there's x amount of food
that
that people can purchase and maybe they
were buying more of it you know for
their homes before
but will that well that put more
pressure on the food supply chain as
restaurants start needing it too
likely it likely will result in that
because
you know we've had this sense of uh or
this reality
that the food we'd buy was for our own
consumption so we go to
whatever food uh location we're buying
from delivered to the home
not going out to restaurants we have
this sense of
and i saw it today in the last couple of
days where people are
are anxious they're anxious to get out
they're anxious to socialize they're
anxious to meet their friends and
relatives
in restaurants and other areas where
you know they gather so that's likely to
push the demand up for
products that are supplied primarily
from west coast destinations
another thing is though i think that a
lot of food supply chains are well
especially on the produce side are well
accustomed to drawing from multiple
sources
as needed like off season you can get
berries and things on the west coast
from chile and and south america and
mexico and then during the season you
get it from up here they shift all the
time
so i'm thinking in that area is it that
much of a challenge to shift sourcing
uh in response to it could be because if
suddenly
one of our primary sources
is not there and we have to then go back
to
i'll call it tier two tier three uh
suppliers and the demand for tier two
tier three now is tier one then what
does that mean
it means that we may not have the
capacity in that tier two
tier three supplier network to meet the
demands of the wider
needs right right and certainly
there's plenty of agriculture elsewhere
in the united states but that doesn't
mean that they are well positioned to
suddenly start serving the west
because they're serving their own
customers regionally well correct
correct
and you know with the uh i mean if you
look at uh
lake mead for example i think it's down
to
proportions that have never been seen
since the
the day was built um
you know those crops may not need get
the
necessary water supply they may not be
able to get it because of the
the uh the situation that lake need so
it just exacerbates the problem
yeah there is a unprecedented nature to
some of this you talked about
temperatures not seen since the 1880s
and the like but we've also had
uh here in the western united states
we've had a series of droughts that
come and go or seem to come and go are
there lessons we can draw on the
past in order to how to deal with this
current situation or are we in
completely new territory here now
i think you know i'd like to say there
are lessons we can draw from the past
but i think we're a new territory
if we look at not only and i want to
talk about the wider climate change here
rather than just
singular droughts if we look at the
impact
of increased frequency and severity of
storms
uh we look at floods in houston
uh we look at the number of name storms
that have impacted the gulf
in the uh the east coast of of the us
so we've got this this this kind of
growth in a pattern of extreme weather
events
that are causing other challenges so for
example
while my crops may be
challenged on the west coast because of
drought conditions
i may have situations in other parts
of the country let's say the midwest or
or
southeast where i've got an over
abundance of water and therefore my
fields are not as productive
as they have been because i've got an
oversupply of water
right so either way there's a challenge
in the balance that needs to occur
i'm not hearing much in the way of
solutions here and i'm not suggesting
that you
that you should have them uh but other
than shifting sourcing on a
on a need to basis um
what can we do to prepare for these for
these changing weather patterns if
anything
with regard to the food supply yeah i
mean i think
you know we we need as a as a society
a global society i'm not talking about
u.s society as a global society
understand the impacts of
fossil fuels other things that are
impacting
our our it was interesting because if
you look at
um some geospatial mapping
and you look at during the pandemic
during covid
on a global basis you look at some major
cities like la
and that chicago boston new york
where the disruption in those particular
areas
of number of vehicles on the road and
you see how
quickly things turned around in a more
positive basis
it was quite quite you know
energizing to me to look at that and say
we can turn this around
we've got to take some immediate actions
and we've got to think globally on how
we can reduce fossil fuel
kind of impact to uh to our society
you know it does tend to cleanse itself
and we saw that
just in the short period of time where
vehicles were off the road during
during coveted pandemic it cleansed
itself pretty quickly
and it also gives companies a new found
awareness of the importance of working
risk management into their supply chains
hence the existence of the risk
institute
and similar organizations uh so we're
we're happy to have you phil
uh helping helping us to figure these
things out uh
phil renault the ohio state university
great to talk to you
always great to talk to you thanks for
your insights into this
what appears to be in a practical
problem but maybe not not if we set
forward to you know to
devise some solutions right pretty
quickly but thanks very much for your
time i really appreciate it
thank you bob have a great day
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