Bitcoin Poised for UP DOWN Volatility until the election.
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Jim, a crypto and forex trader, provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's current market structure using Elliott Wave theory. He presents both bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin's movement near key trend lines. Jim highlights the possibility of a significant upward move, potentially reaching $140K, or a hard dump leading to a multi-year bear market. He also discusses short-term price action, expecting consolidation before a decisive move post-election. His analysis encourages viewers to watch trend lines and anticipate either a continuation or a reversal.
Takeaways
- 📈 Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with a major structure forming that could indicate a bullish scenario.
- 📊 A potential bull flag pattern is emerging, signaling a possible fifth wave to the upside in Bitcoin's price action.
- 🚀 If this wave pattern continues, Bitcoin could rapidly rise, with projected targets between $120K and $146K.
- 📉 A bearish scenario suggests that Bitcoin could drop hard, potentially reaching a support level between $4K and $10K in the next couple of years.
- 🔄 The market may either consolidate within current levels or see a significant pump or dump, depending on how trendlines are tested and held.
- 📐 Various Elliott Wave patterns are in play, with the bullish pattern relying on trendline support and a potential extended fifth wave.
- ⚖️ Both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible, with Bitcoin either breaking upwards or facing a multi-year bear market.
- 📅 The outcome could take years to fully play out, and short-term price movements may involve rejection and retracements at key levels.
- 💡 Short-term analysis suggests potential consolidation within the current range leading up to the election, after which a major move is expected.
- 📉 If Bitcoin breaks above key trendlines, it may initially spike before retracing, indicating a possible flat correction and further downward movement.
Q & A
What is the primary focus of the video?
-The primary focus of the video is on analyzing Bitcoin's price action using Elliot Wave theory, discussing both bullish and bearish scenarios.
What technical issue did Jim encounter during the live stream?
-Jim had a technical difficulty, which led him to cancel the stream and share his analysis through the video.
What is the bullish scenario Jim discusses for Bitcoin?
-In the bullish scenario, Jim sees Bitcoin in a third wave, projecting that the price could rise to 120-140k if the wave continues to the upside. He mentions a fifth wave extension and a potential peak at around 146k.
How does Jim use Fibonacci extensions in his analysis?
-Jim uses Fibonacci extensions to project potential price targets for Bitcoin. He highlights levels such as 2618, 3618, and 4618, which suggest significant upward movement if the bullish wave continues.
What does Jim predict could happen after a bullish rally?
-After a bullish rally, Jim predicts a potential multi-year bear market where Bitcoin could eventually fall back down to 20k, following a long upward wave and subsequent correction.
What is the bearish scenario Jim discusses for Bitcoin?
-In the bearish scenario, Jim considers that Bitcoin might be forming a leading diagonal (diag) followed by a significant dump, taking the price down to the 4-10k range over the next year or two.
What is Jim's 'Moment of Truth' for Bitcoin in this video?
-The 'Moment of Truth' refers to the current critical point in Bitcoin's price action where it must either break through key trendlines to confirm a bullish move or break down for a bearish outcome.
What does Jim recommend for traders if Bitcoin follows the bullish scenario?
-Jim recommends taking profits near the top of the bullish wave, as he does not believe Bitcoin will continue rising indefinitely without a significant correction.
What key trendlines does Jim monitor for Bitcoin?
-Jim monitors several trendlines in his analysis. He focuses on whether these lines hold or break, which will determine whether Bitcoin's price action remains bullish or turns bearish.
What impact does Jim foresee the U.S. election having on Bitcoin's price action?
-Jim predicts that Bitcoin may consolidate within a range leading up to the U.S. election, with more decisive movement (either pumping or dumping) occurring afterward based on market reactions to the election outcome.
Outlines
🚀 Bitcoin's Major Moment: Bullish Outlook
The speaker introduces the video, mentioning a technical difficulty that canceled a live stream. They then dive into the current state of Bitcoin, calling it a 'Moment of Truth' as Bitcoin is forming a major structure that could be interpreted as a bull flag. The speaker outlines a possible fifth wave in progress, potentially pushing Bitcoin's value up to 120-140k if the trend continues. Using Fibonacci extensions, the speaker projects various targets for Bitcoin, emphasizing a bullish count with the potential for an extended fifth wave. They warn of a possible multi-year bear market following this rise, suggesting that profits should be taken at the peak.
🔍 Analyzing Support Levels and Trend Lines
In this section, the speaker focuses on Bitcoin's trend lines and support levels. They emphasize the importance of these lines holding if the market is to remain bullish. A scenario is described where Bitcoin could experience a pullback before continuing its upward trajectory. The speaker warns of potential rejections and notes the significance of price bouncing off key support levels. Overall, the speaker outlines their bullish view, while also acknowledging that the price movement could go in different directions depending on how support holds up.
📉 Bearish Possibilities and Wave Structure
Here, the speaker explores a bearish scenario for Bitcoin. They propose that the current price action could be setting up for a significant drop, potentially leading to a year-long downtrend. The speaker identifies possible wave structures that support this bearish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to the $10,000-$40,000 range over time. Despite this, they also present a scenario where the market eventually recovers after the decline. The speaker highlights the importance of monitoring trend lines for clues about which direction Bitcoin may go next.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Elliot Wave
💡Bull Flag
💡Third Wave
💡Fibonacci Extensions (Fibs)
💡Bear Market
💡Leading Diagonal
💡ABC Correction
💡Flat Wave
💡Trend Line
💡Moment of Truth
Highlights
The speaker addresses technical difficulties and presents market analysis in place of a canceled live stream.
Bitcoin is at a 'Moment of Truth,' forming a major structure resembling a bull flag, indicating potential upward movement.
The market could be forming a fifth wave to the upside, with projections suggesting rapid movement in the third wave.
A potential bullish scenario projects Bitcoin reaching $120k to $140k based on a Fibonacci extension, suggesting strong upward potential.
The extended fifth wave could reach a 161.8% extension, leading to a target around $140k, indicating a major rally before a multi-year bear market.
The bearish scenario suggests the current structure could be a three-wave move, followed by five waves downward, possibly leading to a drop as low as $4k to $10k.
If the bearish count is correct, the market could take a year or more to decline, with Bitcoin entering a multi-year bear market.
The key to the bullish scenario is Bitcoin holding the current trendline, breaking upwards and continuing the upward momentum.
In a bearish scenario, a leading diagonal pattern may form, signaling a sharp decline, breaking key support levels.
Short-term analysis indicates Bitcoin could consolidate within a defined range for the next month, due to market uncertainty around the upcoming election.
The speaker anticipates a potential retracement and three-wave rejection, followed by another push upwards if the market remains bullish.
Various wave structure interpretations are presented, such as a WXY pattern or ABC retrace, providing alternative market pathways.
In the event of a bearish breakout, the market may experience a fast and hard dump, further supporting the bearish case.
The speaker believes the market may consolidate until the election is over, with a significant move—either pump or dump—following the election.
The final outlook emphasizes the importance of watching key trendlines for either continued support and upward movement or a breakdown leading to a bearish scenario.
Transcripts
welcome to the gym of all trades Channel
glad you made it by my name is Jim I'm a
crypto Trader and a Forex Trader here to
help you understand the market from an
Elliot wave perspective hope you're
doing well guys normally doing Sunday
night charts tonight but I have a
technical diffic difficulty so just
going to have to uh I'm going to I
canceled the stream and uh going to
share my thoughts
here all right guys here's what's going
on is it's kind of the Moment of Truth
for Bitcoin here because this is a major
uh a a a major um structure that's being
created okay uh this structure right
here just on first glance looks like a
uh looks like a a bull flag okay you got
some kind of a three-way move there um
and there's different ways to to um how
do I say it there's different ways to
interpret that but now we've got we're
starting to go we're starting to get up
and go so that's a possibility there
there it is and so this could be making
a fifth wave to the upside you got one
two three four and then we need five so
what's happening then is this is a one
two
three we're we're we're in the third
wave okay that means it's going to be
fast and furious okay doesn't mean we
can't have a one two one2 um but uh let
me zoom in just a little bit there we go
you can you can kind of look at this
here as a a a
a one two right there this is a flat two
and now we're in wave three four five
now that that three four five is going
to go up a lot higher okay the way we
project third waves this is the bullish
count here guys is we pull the fibs like
it so and I would expect based on the
size of that first wave we're going to
get up to the at least the 2618 at least
minimum okay uh but a good chance we get
up to the 3618 or even the 4618 okay so
I I'm saying that if that if this is a
one two off the bottom and now we're now
we're pumping uh then uh we have a
really strong likelihood of going up to
120 140k no problem okay um so so there
there's one count for you right there
okay uh so we'd be counting this as a
one two three four and an extended fifth
wave now zooming back out just a little
bit I would
expect the extended fifth to be at least
a one to one extension of the one to
three
so boom uh actually I would say a 1618
extension would be even be
likely guys
146k not not a horrible Target right
there at all um 140k not not a bad
Target if this is bullish okay uh we
would look at this trend line up here
boom uh we we'd probably get a throw
over but this could
be just a giant leading
diag which would be followed by a dump
and a multi multi-year bare Market
multi-year Bar market so we pump pump
pump pump pump okay and then then we
dump multi-year bare market and we we
find
support uh back down
here
um at about
20K when when that's all said and
done and there you go and that there's
an Elliot wave sequence right there
where you got the initial wave
three-wave pullback and then we would
we'd be going so this would take this
would take years to play
this price action would remain in here
for years okay until finally it dumped
and got back down to
20K um so you you'd want to be taking
profit uh you'd want to be taking profit
up near the top this isn't just going to
keep going up and up and up and never
stop okay so uh so there's the bullish
count there for you guys that that's the
bullish look at it
um and and and that's a way to to
interpret what we've got going on um
it's a real possibility um so yeah
Moment of Truth here for Bitcoin uh on
on that bullish count okay
because we we need we we really need uh
Bitcoin to test this trend line right
here test this trend line and then break
up and out okay that's that's what we
need if if we're bullish okay that's
what we need to see and what we want to
see
is I'd like to see this trend line hold
it doesn't have to hold but I'd like to
see it hold um and but even it we could
pop up here threeway back and then go
again okay so so that's that would be a
one 2
one 2 and then we go so there's a
bullish idea for you
um that has us retesting this getting
some
rejection uh and then hopefully finding
support here on that trend line right
there boom so that's that's my bullish
look guys that's my bullish count that's
the way I'm thinking about it um that's
one one way of of interpreting the wave
now what what are some other waves uh
other ways to interpret what we've got
going on well uh if it's
bearish if it's bearish what we've might
have going on here and that we've been
talking about this for a long time is
that this could be a three-wave move a
three-wave move and now looking for five
waves back down to the downside and what
we have here is a one 12 one2 uh could
be a leading diag um you could have a
leading diag here one two three four
five okay there's a leading diag
potentially with a three-wave pull
back which could break that trend line
we talked about could break that trend
line uh but then and but then we could
just come on straight down boom all
right uh and that would
be one two
3 four
five we find support down here about
four between four and
$110,000
Okay so there there's the bearish
concept for you that this is actually
getting ready to dump and it's going to
dump hard and take us down uh you know
it'll take it it'll take you know the
next year to year and a half to for this
to play out right but we we dump and and
it could take even longer than that it
could take the next two years right so
um to dump but that would be a a a
bearish look okay
then all of a sudden you you're looking
at this as an A B and then one two 3 4
five
c a b c a b c and
then then we look for a pump okay but
that pump wouldn't you know it would
probably begin
slow and and work its way up okay all
right so there's there's the
bearish idea so we got a bullish idea we
got a bearish idea there and I don't
know which way it's going but this is
the Moment of Truth this is what we're
looking for so this wave structure here
what what we're going to want what
you're going to want to do is draw this
this trend line there you want to if
you're bullish you want that to hold and
and find this uh go you're going to draw
this trend line as well okay if this one
breaks you're going to want this one to
hold hold if you're bullish
okay and then
finally you're going to draw this trend
line here these are all support support
lines okay and which you want to see
price bouncing off of this and rejecting
okay uh you also want to see you you
also want to see price breaking this so
we we're we're going to more than likely
price is going to cons see these trend
lines here we're going to
consolidate in here okay oh my mouse is
jumping all over the place I think it
has to do with my OBS software guys I
think that's the problem
anyway okay boom boom boom boom boom or
boom
okay that's kind of where we are guys it
really is it's that simple it's that we
we could keep it that simplistic okay so
looking at on the small time frame 15
minute one
hour what we're getting a a bit of a
strong dump at the moment
okay so um we're going to draw this
trend line right here we'd like to see
come
on like to see that hold right there
if that breaks we're going to get we're
going to get bearish here uh on the
short
term I think it's going to
hold doesn't have to hold could be done
we're looking at this as a potential
a
b and we just came and tagged the one to
one I just don't think it's
finished I just don't I don't man it
just doesn't look finished a b c I can't
see five waves in here this might be
creating a fourth
wave yeah I I would expect this trend
line to hold hold and then and then a
move to the
upside now how do we interpret
this that because that's a really
interesting weird structure it it it's
really challenging really
challenging you could have a
wxy okay
a b
c a b
c a b
c w x
y now if they're going to double it up
this could be AB BC back so it could be
a larger w
x and then y
now if they bring if they bring this
back
90% okay then we're looking at a
flat boom boom boom 90%
retrace it could even be 100% take the
high come down fast a b
c so these are just wave structures
ideas that price could take in this area
uh the just because this looks like it
it's pumping doesn't mean it has to pump
I've just offered for you some bearish
ideas and I offer for you the bullish
idea now uh i i c you know bullishly
again don't forget I think is a good
chance we we we we reject off this trend
line right here that trend line we
reject in three waves and then continue
up after that now we don't have to find
support on this line it could it could
be shorter it could be a shallow retrace
and then continue but if you're bullish
that's what you want to see you want to
see a three-way pullback and then a
continuation let's rock let's get out of
here uh it could break up and out of
here okay it really could um but I don't
think so if in fact if if it
breaks up and out of that trend line
fast like here if it breaks oh come
on if it pops up here and and then
starts going I would expect it to Wick
back and come on down here okay because
then I then I'm looking at this as a
some kind of a flat okay and that could
precipitate a real a real fast and hard
dump okay so anyway with that said let's
watch price action here and let's see
see what happens here but uh I I think
what we're going to want to see is um
see what happens do we break this trend
line L and pull back and continue down
okay or is just find support here then
we come up pull back continue or we dump
from
there that's kind of where we are and I
think there's a good chance we
consolidate within this range for the
next month and it's probably going to do
that because we're going heading into an
election and the Market's uncertain
then after the election we'll we'll pump
or we'll
dump that's probably what we're looking
at right there so looking for a looking
for a pump up to the trend line and then
and then rejection in three waves and
playing around pump or
dump we can keep the analysis like that
that's that makes it simple all right
guys thanks for stopping by the channel
that's what I'm looking for for Price
action over the next the next couple of
months into the election I hope you guys
have a great day take it easy
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