Mike McGlone: What's Coming Will Impact The Entire Generation, But This Is Lifetime Opportunity Also
Summary
TLDRDer Video-Skript analysiert die Deflation als Reaktion auf restriktive Zentralbankpolitik und steigende Zinssätze. Es untersucht den Einfluss von Deflation auf Rohstoffpreise und Immobilienmärkte und warnt vor einer möglichen wirtschaftlichen Abschwächung. Marktanalyst Mike Mclone identifiziert Gelegenheiten, um sowohl in Gold als sicherem Hafen und langfristigen US-Schuldverschreibungen zu investieren, während er eine Korrektur von Aktienmärkten um etwa 10% vorhersagt. Das Skript betont, dass es wichtig ist, auf diese wirtschaftlichen Umschwünge vorbereitet zu sein und strategische Entscheidungen zu treffen, um sowohl das Vermögen zu schützen als auch in diesen herausfordernden Zeiten Profite zu erzielen.
Takeaways
- 📈 Der PPI (Produziererpreisindex) ist ein Indikator für zukünftige Preisänderungen und zeigt derzeit eine Abnahme an, was auf eine Entinflation hinweist.
- 🌐 Die globale Wirtschaft, insbesondere in China, zeigt Deflationszeichen, was auf eine allgemeine Abnahme der Inflation und eine steigende Kaufkraft des Geldes hindeutet.
- 🏠 Die Preise für Immobilien in den USA haben in den letzten zehn Jahren fast verdoppelt, aber eine mögliche Preissenkung könnte zu einer breiteren deflationären Spirale führen.
- 📉 Der Bloomberg Commodity Index ist um 30% gesunken, was auf eine Entinflation und sinkende Inflationspanne hinweist.
- 💰 Die Zentralbanken, insbesondere in China, kaufen Gold in beispielloser Menge auf, was die Rolle von Gold als sicherem Hafenanlagewert stärkt.
- 📊 Der PPI ist um 96% gesunken von seinem Höhepunkt des letzten Jahres, was auf eine restriktive Geldpolitik und eine zunehmend deflationäre Tendenz hinweist.
- 💡 Mike McClone, Marktanalyst, sieht Gold und langfristige US-Bundesanleihen als gute Anlagenmöglichkeiten in Zeiten von Entinflation.
- 🚀 Gold hat sein historisches Hoch von 2.500 USD pro Unze überschritten und könnte aufgrund der globalen geopolitischen Spannungen weiter steigen.
- 📉 Die langfristigen US-Bundesanleihen bieten eine Chance, da ihre Rendite in Zeiten von Entinflation tendenziell sinkt, was die Wertsteigerung fördert.
- ⚠️ McClone warnt davor, dass Aktienmärkte, die von hohen Erwartungen getragen werden, möglicherweise eine Korrektur von etwa 10% erfahren könnten, um realistischere Bedingungen widerzuspiegeln.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptunterschied zwischen PPI und CPI?
-PPI, der Rohstoffpreisindex, ist eine high beta, hoch volatil Version des CPI und konzentriert sich mehr auf Rohstoffe. Im Gegensatz dazu ist CPI, der Verbraucherpreisindex, ein allgemeiner Maß für die Inflation und deckt die Preise von Gütern und Dienstleistungen ab, die von Verbrauchern gekauft werden.
Warum könnte ein hoher PPI Wert auf eine restriktive Zentralbankpolitik hindeuten?
-Ein hoher PPI Wert zeigt, dass die Preise für Rohstoffe hoch sind, was zu teuren Produkten und somit zu Inflation führen kann. Wenn die Zentralbank die Zinssätze hochhält, um Inflation zu dämpfen, wird dies als restriktive Politik angesehen, da hohe Zinsen die Wirtschaft bremsen und Investitionen und Verbrauch reduzieren.
Was bedeuten deflatorische Kräfte auf dem Markt?
-Deflatorische Kräfte bezeichnen eine Situation, in der die allgemeinen Preisniveaus von Gütern und Dienstleistungen sinken, was zu einer Steigerung der Kaufkraft des Geldes führt. Dies kann ein Zeichen ernsthafter wirtschaftlicher Probleme sein, da es zu weniger Nachfrage, weniger Produktion und möglicherweise zu einer Rezession führen kann.
Wie kann ein Rückgang der Rohstoffpreise auf dem Markt auf Deflation hindeuten?
-Ein Rückgang der Rohstoffpreise, wie er im Bloomberg Commodity Index beobachtet wurde, zeigt, dass die Inflation drückt und die Preise für Waren und Dienstleistungen fallen. Dies ist ein Indikator für Deflation, da die Kaufkraft des Geldes zunehmen würde, während die Preise sinken.
Was sagt Mike Mc Lone über die aktuelle globale Wirtschaft aus?
-Mike Mc Lone beschreibt die aktuelle globale Wirtschaft als einen Achterbahnritt, der nach einer aufregenden Auffahrt nun zu einer Abffahrt tendiert. Dies symbolisiert eine bevorstehende wirtschaftliche Abwärtsspirale, die man sich vorbereiten muss.
Welche historischen Muster hat Mike Mc Lone bei der Analyse der Deflation beobachtet?
-Mike Mc Lone hat historische Muster beobachtet, die auf massive Liquiditätsflüsse und Zinsänderungen hindeuten, die oft von Deflation gefolgt werden. Dies wird in Edward Chancellors Buch 'The Price of Time' diskutiert, das besagt, dass Phasen massiver Liquidität oft von Phasen der Deflation gefolgt werden.
Was sind die aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, die Mike Mc Lone für deflatorische Trends hervorgehoben hat?
-Mike Mc Lone weist auf den Rückgang des Verbraucherpreisindex (CPI) und den Rohstoffpreisindex (PPI) hin, der von einem Höhepunkt von 18% auf etwa 2% gesunken ist. Diese Indikatoren zeigen, dass die Inflation nachläßt und deflatorische Trends zunehmen.
Was sagt Mike Mc Lone über die Rolle Chinas in der globalen Deflation aus?
-Mike Mc Lone betont, dass China durch fallende Bond-Renditen und eine Abflucht zu Qualitätsassets einen bedeutenden Beitrag zu globalen deflatorischen Kräften leistet. Dies spiegelt eine verringerte wirtschaftliche Aktivität wider und trägt zu einem breiteren deflatorischen Trend bei.
Wie sieht Mike Mc Lone die Zukunft des Goldpreises?
-Mike Mc Lone ist der Meinung, dass der Goldpreis aufgrund der deflatorischen Kräfte, die er beobachtet, einen signifikanten Anstieg erfahren wird. Er sieht Gold als eine sichere Anlaufstelle und erwähnt, dass es sich bereits über seinen historischen Höchstpreis von 2.500 USD pro Unze erhöht hat.
Was sind nach Ansicht von Mike Mc Lone gute Anlagechancen während einer deflatorischen Phase?
-Mike Mc Lone ist überzeugt, dass langfristige US-Bundesobligationen und Gold in deflatorischen Zeiten gute Anlagechancen bieten. Er argumentiert, dass langfristige US-Bundesobligationen aufgrund sinkender Zinsen wertvoller werden und Gold als traditionelles Zufluchtasset in Zeiten der Unsicherheit tendenziell überdurchschnittlich abschneidet.
Was sagt Mike Mc Lone über die Aktienmärkte in einer deflatorischen Umgebung aus?
-Mike Mc Lone warnt, dass Aktienmärkte in einer deflatorischen Umgebung eine harte Landung erleben könnten. Er erwähnt, dass eine Korrektur um etwa 10% möglich ist, um realistischere Bedingungen widerzuspiegeln, und betont die Bedeutung einer vorsichtigen Annäherung der FED bei der Politiklockerung.
Outlines
📉 Deflationäre Kräfte und globale Wirtschaftslage
Der erste Absatz behandelt die Unterschiede zwischen dem PPI und dem CPI, wobei PPI als ein Indikator für zukünftige Preisbewegungen angesehen wird. Der Sprecher, Mike Mclone, ein Marktanalyst, diskutiert die Tendenz zur Deflation, die durch sinkende Rohstoffpreise und eine mögliche Preissenkung von Immobilien in den USA deutlich wird. Er warnt vor einer anstehenden wirtschaftlichen Umstellung, die sowohl Gefahren als auch Chancen birgt. Mclone betont, dass Deflation, obwohl sie Kaufkraft steigern könnte, tatsächlich ein Zeichen ernsthafter wirtschaftlicher Probleme sein kann.
📈 Gold und langfristige US-Schulden als Investitionsmöglichkeiten
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die wirtschaftlichen Muster, die auf eine bevorstehende deflationäre Krise hindeuten. Mclone vergleicht die aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren mit denen vor der Großen Finanzkrise und betont, dass Gold und langfristige US-Schuldbonds als sichere Hafen in turbulenten Zeiten dienen können. Er erwähnt, dass Gold als traditionelles Zufluchtsvermoögen in Zeiten von Unsicherheit und wirtschaftlicher Instabilität tendenziell besser abschneidet als Aktien. Mclone sieht in der aktuellen Goldpreissituation und den langfristigen US-Schuldbonds Investitionschancen, die von deflationären Kräften profitieren könnten.
📉 Vorsichtsmaßnahmen und Anpassung an wirtschaftliche Umstände
Der dritte Absatz warnt vor potenziellen Schwierigkeiten auf dem Aktienmarkt und betont die Notwendigkeit, auf konservativere Investitionsstrategien zu schauen, wie festverzinsliche Wertpapiere und US-Schulden. Mclone argumentiert, dass die Aktienmärkte möglicherweise eine Korrektur von etwa 10% erleben werden, um realistischere Bedingungen widerzuspiegeln. Er hebt hervor, dass die FED bei der Politiklockerung vorsichtig sein könnte, um aus vergangenen Fehlern zu lernen. Trotzdem erwartet er, dass sich die Risikoumgebung verändert und zu niedrigeren Bewertungen und möglicherweise signifikanten Marktrückgängen führen wird. Mclone betont, dass es wichtig ist, proaktiv zu sein und nicht auf Reaktionen zu warten, um die wirtschaftlichen Umstände zu meistern.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Deflation
💡Inflation
💡PPI (Producer Price Index)
💡CPI (Consumer Price Index)
💡Fed Funds Rate
💡Commodity Prices
💡Gesamtkapitalrendite (Total Return)
💡Gold
💡US Treasury Bonds
💡Equities
Highlights
PPI (Producer Price Index) is a high beta, high volatility version of CPI (Consumer Price Index), typically leading it and being more commodity-focused.
PPI is currently around 2%, having spiked to 18% last year and then reverting to negative.
Fed funds rates are above PPI, indicating a restrictive monetary policy.
Deflation is a measure of when prices come down, leading to an increase in the purchasing power of money.
Bloomberg commodity index is down 30% from its peak in 2022, signaling deflation.
The average price of homes in the US has nearly doubled in the past decade, setting the stage for potential deflation.
Mike Mclone, a market analyst, warns of a deflationary recession, comparing the economy to a roller coaster ride slowing down.
Deflationary trends are becoming more apparent despite inflation still decreasing.
CPI has reported a 2.9% inflation rate, lower than previous highs.
China's bond yields are falling, reflecting diminished economic activity and contributing to deflationary forces.
Bloomberg Industrial Metals index and gold prices are indicators of global deflationary trends.
Natural gas prices have plummeted, indicating severe deflation forces.
Gold has been outperforming equities, suggesting a shift towards safe-haven assets.
Gold's recent surpassing of its all-time high suggests a significant rally driven by deflationary forces.
Long-term US Treasury bonds are viewed as a safe investment opportunity in a deflationary environment.
Risk assets, particularly equities, could face a downturn as the Fed eases its policy.
The stock market's high valuations suggest a potential correction is likely.
Mclone advises focusing on conservative investment strategies in a deflationary environment.
The global economy is on the brink of a fundamental shift, presenting both challenges and opportunities.
Transcripts
ppi is basically a high beta High
volatility version of CPI typically
leads it's much more commodity focused
guilty I'm a commodity guy and right now
it's around 2% the big spike we had to
last year was around to what 19 I see
the high was 18% it reverted down to
negative and fed funds are very much
above that rate that's clearly
restrictive chairman Paul said is clar
restricted but if you add in PPI from
China it's still negative it's really
bad so um and that's how much you can
trust the data so I'm not as trustworthy
as the data but the point is fed funds
extremely high PPI extremely low is a
contractu it's it's just a sign of very
restrictive Fed rate policy and the
thing is they'll start cutting rates but
it's going to be a delayed reaction and
the point is we're all tilting towards
that re that deflationary recession most
knowly China imagine you're on a roller
coaster soaring through the air with
thrilling speed suddenly you feel the
momentum shift and the ride begins to
slow down you know what's coming next a
steep drop this is how Market analyst
Mike mclone describes the current global
economy the ride has been exhilarating
but now we need to brace ourselves for a
downturn however this is not just a
warning of Doom and Gloom Mone believes
that there are opportunities to not only
survive but Thrive during this economic
reset in this video we'll explore mone's
insights into the global deflationary
forces at play why a market reset could
be imminent and and most importantly how
can you position yourself to profit from
this massive shift let's start by
unpacking the concept of deflation a
term that might sound abstract but has
real world consequences so remember
deflation is always a measure of when
you things come too high inflation lifts
assets up too high and they go down so
one good example is a Bloomberg
commodity index is down 30% from its
peak in 2022 that's deflation you just L
raise the base too high the average
price of home this country is between
400 and $500,000 a year that's almost
doubled in 10 years so when that goes
down which it typically does that's
deflation and that's the problem so
deflation occurs when the general price
levels of goods and services Falls
leading to an increase in the purchasing
power of money while this might sound
like a good thing deflation can actually
be a sign of serious economic trouble
Mike mclone a well-respected market
analyst of Bloomberg intelligence has
been closely monitoring the signs of
deflation
across various sectors he points out
that the first Clues come from falling
commodity prices for example the
Bloomberg commodity index which tracks a
diverse basket of Commodities has
dropped by 30% from its peak in 2022
this sharp decline is not just about
cheaper Goods it is a signal that
inflationary pressures are easing and
the deflation might be looming take
housing as another example over the past
decade the average prices of homes in
the US has nearly doubled but what goes
up must come down especially when prices
are driven by high inflation mclone
warns that a sudden drop in home prices
could lead to a broader deflationary
spiral reminiscent of what we saw during
the great financial crisis mcl's
observations are not just random guesses
he draws on historical patterns like
those discussed in Edward Chancellor's
book the price of time where periods of
massive liquidity and fluxes like we
have seen recently are often followed by
deflation and the current economic
indicators are beginning to align with
these historical precedents so what do
the numbers say well looking at current
economic indicators mclone notes that
while inflation has been decreasing
deflationary Trends are becoming more
apparent the Consumer Price Index CPI
has recently reported a 2.9% inflation
rate which is notably lower compared to
the previous highs however deflation has
not yet fully materialized across all
sectors this is a crucial observation
because it underscores a transitional
phase where inflation is decreasing but
has not yet turned into outright
deflation the producer price index PPI
offers another critical Insight which
often leads CPI and is more reflective
of commodity price changes currently PPI
stands around 2% with a significant drop
from the last year's peak of 18% despite
this PPI remains lower than fed funds
rates indicating a restrictive monetary
policy this Divergence highlights a
deflationary trend as the fed's policy
becomes increasingly restrictive but the
story doesn't end here the global
economy particularly in major markets
like China is contributing to these
deflationary forces in China bond yields
are falling despite the government's
efforts to raise them reflecting a
severe flight to Quality and diminished
economic activity this scenario
contributes to a broader deflationary
Trend observed in Industrial Metals and
commodities for example the Bloomberg
Industrial Metals index which was up by
24% last year is now nearly unchanged
while gold a traditional Safe Haven
asset continues to rise mlon sees these
patterns as aily similar to those that
preceded the great financial crisis
suggesting that we might be heading
towards a similar economic scenario
mclone warns that unless gold
experiences a sharp decline the current
economic indicators Point towards a
potential deflationary crisis the US
Stock Market which has been boyed by
high expectations may need to correct by
about 10% to reflect more realistic
conditions such a correction could
further tilt the economy towards severe
deflationary forces additionally mclone
points to the PPI and Global bond yield
comparisons as evidence of the
underlying deflation
the average bond yields in major
economies like China Japan Germany and
India are about 100 basis points lower
than us yields reflecting a global trend
of lower interest rates and deflationary
pressures let's look at the number one
measure of heat electricity and
fertilizer in this country natural gas
right now it's about two bucks per mmbtu
the high was 10 and it's hovering around
the low this year was around 1.5 1.6
that level was first traded in 1990 in
Futures when Futures first open so that
is a sign of severe deflation forces
that's normal in Commodities partly
because we create more with less every
day and despite the fact we have de
basing Fiat currencies these underlying
Commodities still tick down in Price
look at Natural Gas specific Commodities
highlight these deflationary Trends
natural gas prices have plummeted to
around $2 per mm BTU from a high of $10
while crude oil prices WTI are at nearly
$74 per barrel significantly down from
the previous highs even copper which saw
a spike to
$5.20 per pound has fallen back to
nearly $4 this decline in commodity
prices is indicative of deflationary
forces at play now let's shift gears
from understanding the problem to
exploring the opportunities it presents
Mike mclone is not just sounding the
alarm on deflation he's also identifying
where Savvy investors can find refuge
and even profit during these Turbo times
and gold has been very consistently
outperformed so I like to point out for
those who have been pointing how strong
the equity Market is like on a one two
and threeyear basis the rock is beating
the stocks S&P 500 Total return S&P 500
is below gold for one two and threee
basis as of August 19th um and I I think
that's an indication something is
significantly going on here that's
probably tilted toward a little bit of
reversion of risk assets which were way
overdue for and this asset you know
Bitcoin which was born of the great
financial crisis and has taken over the
world and has become you know it really
pumps above its weight in terms of um
hype is starting to roll over and I want
to see signs of strengths otherwise I
think it's to me a good leading
indicator of what I'm expect what I'm
seeing in Commodities I'll end with this
Gold's up 30% from the peak in 2022 when
Commodities peaked and crude oils and
in Commodities broad Commodities are
down 30% so on a global basis gold up
Commodities down that's a pretty
significant Global deflationary
recessionary trajectory at least for now
and then you look over to China and
there's good reasons for that according
to mllo gold is on the cusp of a
significant rally driven by the very
deflationary forces we've been
discussing gold recently surpassed its
all-time high of
$2,500 per ounce and mclone believes
that this is is just the beginning He
suggests that Gold's prize floor which
was previously between $2,000 and
$2,200 is now moving upwards with $2,400
becoming the new base this shift is not
just due to the market speculation but
it's rooted in global geopolitical
tensions particularly the ongoing
conflict between Russia and Ukraine
which has solidified Gold's role as a
safe haven asset mclone points out that
Gold's performance relative to risk
assets like equities is highly telling
historically during times of economic
uncertainity when yield curves invert
and the unemployment rates hit low
levels gold tends to outperform equities
and with central banks especially in
China buying up gold at an unprecedented
rate the stage is set for goal to shine
even brighter but what about other
investment opportunities mllo is also
bullish on the long-term US Treasury
bonds so one thing I really like about
that 10 year note what it was bumping up
against 4% as resistance and now that's
support for yield so I me now it's I'm
sorry it's bumping up against their
support now it's 40% resistance I think
it's dropping lower and I just look at
over that China tenure note at 2.17% I
mean the all-time low is 2.09 there's a
lot of room for that 10y note yield to
foul the Chinese tenure note which I
think it will um and go back to that
elongated B market Bond since the early
80s which a lot of people gave up on in
a normal recession and the key thing is
the deflationary forces I see now are
worse than what I saw
20067 and 8 like I pointed out as
deflationary pressures build the yield
on these bonds is expected to decline
making them more valuable for example
the yield on a 10-year us treasury note
has dropped to
3.85% down from the previous highs
mclone argues that this trend will
continue potentially aligning us yields
with the much lower levels seen in other
major economies like China where the
10year note yield is just
2.17% mclone views the bond market
especially the long-term us treasuries
as a significant opportunity for
investors looking to Shield themselves
from the stormy seas ahead he draws
parallels to previous economic Cycles
noting that during periods of deflation
long bonds have historically provided
substantial returns while there are
opportunities mlon is clear about the
risks risk assets particular regly
equities could be in for a rough ride he
highlights that whenever the Federal
Reserve pivots from high interest rates
it often triggers a recession and
recessions are typically unfavorable for
risk assets like stocks currently the
stock market remains elevated boyed by
high expectations however mlon cautions
that this might not last with the FED
likely to start easing its policy soon
the equity markets could experience a
significant downturn mlon warns that the
stock market's current High valuations
relative to historical benchmarks and
GDP suggest that a correction
potentially around 10% is likely he also
emphasizes the importance of the fed's
approach to policy easing unlike
previous Cycles where a quick pivot led
to Sharp downturns the FED might take a
more cautious approach this time
learning from past mistakes but even
with this caution mlon believes that the
risk environment will shift leading to
lower valuations and potentially
significant Market declines I don't know
um bottom line is right now
unemployment's Rising so we're heading
that way and we see major signs of
strapped Compu consumers everywhere so
it's typically the bottom line is what
was the signal in 1929 is just assets
the stock market got too expensive and
then reverted and right now it's still
getting more expensive which is a
wonderful thing so it it's hard to
pinpoint pinpoint what's going to flip
the switch but I'll end with this what
um a thing I quote I heard from um Roger
bson in uh in September of 1929 he was
speaking to a group of investors is I
will tell you I told you um about the
stock market last year and the year
before at this time that it's going to
go down now he was wrong for a while I
said that about gold recently when I was
the beginning of this year I said I'll
just say what I've been saying for the
last three years it's going to go up um
yes I was early it took a while but
that's the key thing the bottom line is
we need to have we have to hope the
stock market goes doesn't go down and
everything will be fine but if we have
normal reversion that kicks in the
deflation Will D Domin dominoes tumble
and they've already started that way I
think the yield curves on top of it I
think Gold's on top of it Commodities
are on top of it um and typically stock
markets the last mcl's message is clear
this is not the time to chase high-risk
equities instead he advises focusing on
more conservative investment strategies
such as fixed income securities and us
treasuries which are are likely to
perform better in a deflationary
environment as we wrap up it is
important to understand that Mike mcl's
analysis is not about predicting a
disaster it's about preparing for a
fundamental shift in the global economy
we are on the brink of what he calls as
the reset of a lifetime where
traditional investment strategies might
not work as they have in the past but
with careful planning and the right
approach this reset can present
significant opportunities so whether
it's invest in in gold as a safe haven
positioning yourself in the long-term us
treasuries or steering clear off
overvalued equities the key takeaway is
to be proactive not reactive the global
deflationary forces at play are real and
could shape the financial landscape for
years to come so as we brace for this
reset remember that every downturn comes
with its own set of opportunities by
staying informed and making strategic
decisions you can not only protect your
wealth but also position yourself to
profit during these challenging times
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