TESLA Stock - Is This Bearish For TSLA?

Summary

In this Tesla update video, the host discusses Tesla's stock performance, noting a 3.2% drop and a closing price of $223. He highlights bearish signals, including a stochastic bearish crossover and a break below recent trading ranges, suggesting potential downside continuation to the low 200s. The video also touches on low trading volume and technical indicators like the MACD and BX trender, which remain bearish. Despite these concerns, the host emphasizes the importance of capturing the 214-215 level for a bullish outlook and mentions the impact of Nvidia's earnings on the market.

Takeaways

• 📉 Tesla's stock closed the day down about 3.2%, which is considered underperformance compared to the market.
• 📈 The speaker is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial advice; the video is for informational purposes only.
• 🔗 The speaker has a membership section on YouTube for $2.99, offering daily thoughts, updates, technical analysis, and more on Tesla stock.
• 📊 The stochastic indicator has shown a bearish crossover, signaling a potential decrease in bullish momentum for Tesla's stock.
• 🌀 There is concern over the recent trading pattern, with an inside day candle suggesting a continuation of the current trend direction.
• 📉 A break below the recent trading range indicates bearish sentiment and potential weakness in Tesla's stock price.
• 📉 Low trading volume in the current price range could lead to quick price movements, especially if the stock moves to the lower 200s.
• 📊 The speaker anticipates potential support in the very low 200s range, with a worst-case scenario of dropping to the 180s to 170s.
• 📉 The speaker is bearish on Tesla's stock until it can recapture the 214 to 215 price level, which has acted as both support and resistance.
• 📊 The speaker mentions that a retest of the breakdown at the 214 to 215 level is occurring, and a successful retest could lead to further downside movement.
• 💼 Options flow for Tesla shows a significant amount of bearish options, with many puts coming in towards the end of the trading day.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is a Tesla update, discussing the company's stock performance, market trends, and potential future movements.

What does the speaker mention about Nvidia's role in the stock market?

The speaker refers to Nvidia as being 'the new Apple of the stock market,' suggesting that its earnings reports could significantly influence the overall market direction.

What is the speaker's stance on providing financial advice?

The speaker clarifies that they are not a financial adviser and that the content of the video is not financial advice.

What is the speaker's health condition as mentioned in the script?

The speaker mentions being a 'little bit sick,' which is indicated by a 'scuffy' voice.

How did Tesla's stock perform on the day discussed in the script?

Tesla's stock closed the day down about 3.2%, closing at $223, which is considered an underperformance compared to the market.

What technical analysis tool does the speaker emphasize in the script?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of the stochastic indicator in technical analysis, noting its effectiveness in gauging bullish and bearish momentum.

What is the significance of the bearish stochastic crossover mentioned in the script?

The bearish stochastic crossover indicates that the bullish momentum has decreased and the bearish momentum is starting to take over, which is a sign of potential downward price movement.

What does the speaker mean by 'inside day candle' and its implications?

An 'inside day candle' is a candlestick pattern where the price range of one day is completely within the range of the previous day. A break above or below this range typically indicates a continued move in that direction.

What is the speaker's concern regarding Tesla's trading volume?

The speaker is concerned about the low trading volume, which could lead to quick price movements, especially if the stock price moves down to the low 200s.

What is the speaker's view on the potential support level for Tesla's stock?

The speaker expects strong support to kick in at the very low 200s range, and if the price drops below 200, the worst-case scenario would be in the 180s to 170s range.

What is the speaker's current outlook on Tesla's stock based on the recent price action?

The speaker leans bearish on Tesla's stock, expecting a continued move to the downside to the very low 200s range, based on the recent price action and the bearish indicators discussed.

What is the significance of the 214-215 price level mentioned in the script?

The 214-215 price level is significant as it acted as both resistance and support in the past. The speaker suggests that recapturing this level would remove some of the current bearish perspective.

What does the speaker say about the options flow for Tesla?

The speaker mentions that Tesla has about 12 billion in bearish options flow, with a significant number of puts coming in towards the end of the day, but overall, it's not considered extraordinary.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla Market Update and Analysis

The speaker begins by welcoming viewers to a Tesla update video, focusing on Tesla's stock performance and market trends. They mention the significance of Nvidia's earnings report, likening it to Apple's impact on the market. The speaker advises viewers that the content is not financial advice and promotes their YouTube membership for detailed analysis on Tesla stock. They discuss Tesla's stock performance, noting a 3.2% drop and underperformance relative to the market. The daily chart analysis highlights a bearish stochastic crossover, indicating a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The speaker also points out bearish signs such as a break below Friday's trading range and low trading volume, suggesting potential for a quick price drop. They anticipate further downside movement to the $207-$203 range if the current bearish trend continues.

05:01

📉 Analyzing Bearish Indicators and Support Levels

In this paragraph, the speaker delves deeper into bearish indicators on Tesla's 1-hour chart. They discuss the potential bearish implications of a trend line break, comparing different ways of drawing trend lines and their reliability. The speaker notes that while the trend line has held in the past, a recent break below it is concerning. They also mention the importance of the $214-$215 level, suggesting that a recapture of this range could alleviate bearish sentiment. The speaker expresses a bearish outlook until this level is retaken, anticipating a continued move to the low $200s if the current trend persists. They also touch on options flow, noting a significant amount of bearish options activity but nothing extreme. The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of the $214-$215 level for a potential bullish reversal and their overall bearish stance based on current price action.

10:01

👋 Signing Off with a Forward Look

The final paragraph is a brief sign-off from the speaker, indicating the end of the video. They remind viewers to like the video if they found it enjoyable and express anticipation for the next video, promising more analysis and updates. This paragraph serves as a closure to the video, summarizing the speaker's overall bearish sentiment and looking forward to providing further insights in upcoming videos.

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that is a central focus of the video. The script discusses Tesla's stock performance and market trends, indicating its importance in the context of the video's theme, which is the financial analysis of Tesla's stock.

💡Market

The term 'market' refers to the financial context in which Tesla operates, including stock trading and investor sentiment. It is a key concept in the video as the speaker discusses Tesla's performance relative to the overall market.

💡Stochastic

The stochastic is a technical indicator used in the video to analyze Tesla's stock price movements. It measures the momentum of price changes and is used to predict future price trends, as seen when the speaker mentions a 'bearish crossover' indicating a potential downturn.

💡Bearish

A 'bearish' perspective in the video suggests a belief that the price of Tesla's stock will decline. The speaker uses this term to describe certain indicators and price patterns that may suggest negative momentum for Tesla's stock.

💡Inside Day Candle

An 'inside day candle' is a technical analysis term used in the script to describe a candlestick pattern where one day's trading range is completely within the previous day's range. The speaker uses this concept to discuss potential market direction based on Tesla's stock price action.

💡Volume

Volume refers to the number of shares traded in a security during a given period. In the video, the speaker discusses the significance of low volume in certain price ranges of Tesla's stock, suggesting potential quick price movements due to less market resistance.

💡Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are concepts used in technical analysis to identify price levels at which it is likely that the security will find a stopping point and reverse. The speaker uses these terms to discuss historical price levels where Tesla's stock has encountered buying or selling pressure.

💡MACD

MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. The speaker mentions MACD as being bearish, indicating a potential downtrend in Tesla's stock.

💡Options Flow

Options flow refers to the trading activity in options contracts. The speaker mentions 'bearish options flow' for Tesla, suggesting that many investors are buying put options, which would profit if the stock price falls, indicating a bearish sentiment.

💡Bullish

A 'bullish' perspective is the opposite of bearish and suggests a belief that the price of Tesla's stock will rise. The speaker discusses the need for certain price levels to be recaptured to shift from a bearish to a bullish outlook.

💡Nvidia

Nvidia is mentioned in the video as a significant company in the stock market, often compared to Apple in terms of its influence. The speaker anticipates that Nvidia's earnings report could impact the overall market, including Tesla's stock.

Highlights

Introduction to a new Tesla update video discussing market trends and expectations for an important week with Nvidia earnings.

Emphasis on the video being for informational purposes and not financial advice.

Announcement of the YouTube membership section with access to daily thoughts, post updates, technical analysis, and options flow for $2.99.

Tesla's stock performance, closing the day down 3.2% at $223, underperforming compared to the market.

Discussion of bearish signs and technical analysis indicators such as the stochastic bearish crossover.

Analysis of daily chart patterns, including the significance of inside day candles and their implications for future price movements.

Concern over the potential downside continuation to the price range of $207 to $203 based on current trends.

Observation of low trading volume and its potential impact on price action, suggesting quick price movements through low volume areas.

Mention of the 1-hour chart technical indicators, including the bearish MACD and the importance of the uptrend line from the lows.

Concern about the breakdown below the uptrend wedge and its implications for the bullish perspective.

Expectation of strong support in the very low $200s range based on historical volume profile analysis.

Discussion of the potential worst-case scenario with a drop to the 180s to 170s range and the significant support expected there.

Importance of recapturing the 214 to 215 price level to regain bullish confidence.

Analysis of options flow, with a focus on the bearish options and the significance of the puts towards the end of the day.

Mention of a 4.7 million call on Cheddar flow, indicating long-term bullish sentiment despite being less relevant for short-term analysis.

Conclusion summarizing the current bearish lean based on recent price action and the importance of adapting to market changes.

Transcripts

hey guys what is up and welcome to a new

Tesla update video so today as per usual

let's go over Tesla's talk let's go over

the market and let's talk about what is

happening and what we can expect moving

into a pretty potentially important week

honestly with Nvidia earnings Nvidia of

course being pretty much like the new

Apple of the stock market so that could

definitely dictate quite a lot moving

forward with this Market in general but

ladies and jump on let's jump into jump

into it rather um if you enjoyed the

video don't forget to hit that like

button this is non Financial advice I am

not a financial adviser and of course my

membership section on YouTube is live

that link is down below for just $2.99

you can access at all ma Day thoughts

post updates techn analysis options flow

Etc on Tesa stock and sometimes just

General market things as well um yeah

link is below if you're interested check

it check it out if you can I'm still a

little bit sick if you can hear about my

voice it's a little scuffy but

nonetheless Tesla closing the day down

about 3.2% closing at

$223 uh2 which unfortunately compared to

the market is a bit of an

underperformance

um but it kind of is what it is right

now let's talk about this right there's

definitely some signs of caution here

right now it's obviously not the worst

thing in the world right we didn't drop

like you know I mean 3% is a decent

amount but for Tesla it's just kind of

another day really but let's go over the

bearish things first right there are

definitely some signs of concern that I

have here right now um that I do want to

talk about first the daily chart I want

to talk about is going to be uh well we

talked yesterday not yesterday Friday

about the stochastic right I said how

there's a lot of things that are looking

pretty good for the for for the daily

chart and there are still some good

signs but you know the stochastic has

cross bearish and it's obviously

continued to cross bearish and it's

still cross bearish right so and again I

personally really put a lot of emphasis

on the stochastic it's not perfect by

any means but it's pretty damn good in

my opinion right and in this case you

know this indicator is showing a bearish

crossover it's showing that the bullish

momentum has definitely dried up right

and the bearish momentum is starting to

you know slowly kick in and take over so

that's something that you definitely

don't want to completely ignore right

now you know we'll go over the bullish

things after but the other potentially

bearish thing that I don't like right

now on the daily chart is well

yesterday's Friday's candle and

Thursday's candle right we had a massive

Thursday a red candle Friday was like a

small kind of you know green or white

whatever candle that was pretty much

encapsulated right essentially an inside

Day candle usually with inside day

candles what you do is you take the uh

the top of the range so in this case you

know the top of the range would have

been up here and then you take the

bottom of the range which was pretty

much this line that I have down here

right right here right pretty much right

around here right so pretty much you

know what is this uh 221 and A2 roughly

and about like what just we'll say 114

roughly right the way inside da candles

work is a break above or below that

range usually indicates a continued move

in that respective Direction so in this

case because we broke below Friday's

range of about 214 that's bearish right

that is definitely a bit of a bearish

sign it shows weakness and that's not

what the Bulls want to be seeing it's

not what I want to be seeing personally

as a bull of course you know and it

definitely has some signs of concern now

we obviously after breaking it fell well

below that right from 214 all the way

down to pretty much entering barely than

210 so obviously we dropped a decent

amount right that's a that's a fair drop

even post block uh breaking it even

considering we already had that initial

drop from the today's high so but the

fact that we close below is not ideal

right the fact that we're breaking below

this range is not ideal so this to me

signals the fact that especially with

the stochastic bearish cross over that

there could still be more downside

continuation to about this 207 to as low

as a 203 uh range right that could be a

very real possibility another thing

that's a little concerning is the fact

that there is some low volume coming in

here if I zoom out right here you can

see right the volume in this area is

pretty low and guess where we got

rejector we got rejected pretty much

right where we had this little spike in

volume and now we're entering you can

see right here some low volume area

right this kind of range of about 215 to

us highs about 220 which is what we've

been trading for the past like week or

so right you know bit of a spike in

volume you can see here right massive

spikes down here massive spikes up here

right 260 250 is massive Spike right

pretty much like 170 180s massive spikes

and volume like these are massive areas

of support and resistance or I guess

resistance and support respectively but

you know we do have some small spikes in

volume profile over here right the range

we just traded at which we're pretty

much potentially getting rejected at but

we have a small little volume Spike all

the way down here pretty much right at

$200 per share as well but the reason I

bring this up is because you can see

between that their volume very much

diminishes like very very very low

volume in between pretty much where we

are now all the way down to the very low

200s very low volume so if it happens

and if we do move down to the low like

very low 200s

I'd expect it to be quick I would expect

it to be quick because usually when you

go through low volume areas like this

you expect price action to be pretty

Snappy right pretty damn quick because

there's again not a lot of volume to

support um you know the the price right

so it just kind of flushes down or up

really in this case it will be a down

flush obviously if we mooved back down

to let's say 202 203 204 5 something

somewhere around that you know low low

200 range so that's another concern I

have right I don't like that and the

final concern I have for the bearish

side is the fact that well you know the

1 hour obviously CLC still crossed over

to the bearish side right we have the BX

trender still looking actually making a

higher low but you know still a red um a

band for instance right um the macd is

still bearish right so there are

definitely still signs of concern there

but the main one is the fact that we had

this little you know wedge if you will

that we were forming all the way from

these lows all the way over here at

about 190 right and you know we've

pretty much held this this uptrend every

single time now you can make an argument

the fact that you can take this line and

again this is why I'm not always a big

fan of trend lines because they're

subjective and you can connect the dots

like this and this actually lines up to

the bare tips of these little um uh

pivot Points if you will right and it

connects actually to where we

potentially did actually find a bounce

today so that is one aspect you can look

at it that's potentially a valid uh

aspect but you know the other way to

look at it is well it's like this

instead we never invalidated any candle

we never actually went below any of

these candles over here right it was

just Wicks we bounced off of it every

single time we even it even connects cuz

the issue is if if you bring it down to

this example that I just had it doesn't

connect to this Wick that we did

actually bounce pretty pretty decently

off of it too right massive Gap up into

a massive rally right from 211 to like

what 220 it's a you know decent rally in

one day but this perspective connects

this Wick as well this candle right on

the 1 hour chart doesn't uh uh doesn't

um what's the word I'm looking for I

literally just said it it doesn't

invalidate any of these candles back

here and um it pretty much makes sense

with potentially what we have moving

forward which is you know we came down M

had a massive bounce off the trend line

again came back down to it this morning

actually held it for for a few hours you

can see here until we ultimately gave in

came back down right all the way to

about 211 we'll say and then we are so

far seemingly coming back up to retest

that breakdown that's what it seems like

we're doing right now we're coming back

up retesting that breakdown and assuming

this retest is successful you would

expect a continued follow through pretty

much down to the real major demand Zone

which again I think will be the very

very low 200s could be as low as could

be as high as 207 high as 207 could be

as low as about $200 per share but that

General range I do expect some pretty

strong support to start kicking in and

the worst case scenario if we do somehow

drop below 200 would be pretty much 180s

to 170s I'd be shocked if we go lower

than that there's an insane amount of

volume profile even more volume profile

like I just mentioned sitting there than

the volume profile that rejected us all

the way back up here around the 250s and

260s right you can see massive area of

volume profile huge huge huge volume

profile area so if we do come back down

here which we did actually technically

already when the market crashed on the

Yen crisis if you will right we did

actually come down there we did bounce

pretty substantially off of it so if we

do add up somehow coming back all the

way down to this like 180s to 170s range

again I'd be I'd expect some pretty

tremendous support again it's a massive

if I'm not saying we will but just you

know if we do right but again the thing

that's still concerning me again you

know break down below this wedge

essentially right I don't like the fact

that we broke down below this wedge

that's you know not ideal also we lost

the 214 215 level so the only way for me

to really start getting confidence back

in from a bullish perspective is to

recapture 214 215 if we can recapture

those levels that to me would be bullish

I well not necessarily bullish but it

definitely removed a lot of this bearish

perspective that I have right now based

on today's price action right if we

recapture 214 to 2115 because again keep

in mind right we had this massive fall

this morning right and then we kind of

bounced off the trend line but what did

we do we came right back into that 214

to 215 range on these kind of candles

right here and what do we do we rejected

and came down even lower that's not a

good sign we're so far actually showing

some rejection from this 214 to 2115

range already right that's why I want to

recapture it it's very important right

so you can see back here right how it

acted as a resistance and as a support

and even right here it acted as a

support as well right so definitely want

to recapture that range in my opinion

again this is just my opinion this is

just what I am personally viewing I

could be completely wrong want to make

that very clear I don't have a crystal

ball I'm not like you know some you know

guy that knows everything I can be wrong

I could be completely wrong but as of

right now until we recapture at least

214 to 215 I I do lean bearish I don't

like the some situations that are

setting up here and I would expect a

continued move to the downside to the

low 200s like very low 200s as of right

now obviously things change we adapt but

that's what I see right now and that's

kind of what I am expecting as of right

now as well so yeah in terms of options

flow uh Testa you know has about almost

we'll say 12 billion I'm billion million

in uh bearish options flow so nothing

too crazy again you know it's something

but it's nothing crazy I mean compared

to Nvidia for instance 55 million right

but in terms of options flow again a lot

of puts came in towards the end of the

day you can see here a decent amount of

puts towards the end of the day but

throughout the day pretty slow options

day for the most part to be completely

honest nothing to really write home

about nothing completely substantial

came out at least in my opinion so you

know it is what it is um we'll take a

look we can take a look at it over here

as well maybe you know maybe cheddar

flow spotted something that you know

they didn't but uh 4.7 million call that

actually came in on ched flow over here

but it's a leap I don't really look at

leaps too much we know the Bulls are

bullish very long term but we care more

about the next you know few weeks to few

months that's what we care about so yeah

anyway that's kind of what I'm seeing

for Tesla ladies and gentlemen so for

usual if you enjoyed don't forget to hit

that like button and I'll see you for

the next one peace