97% Lie
Summary
TLDRThe script argues against the notion of 97% scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. It contends this statistic derives from a flawed study, as only 1.6% of analyzed papers explicitly state humans cause over 50% of warming. The script maintains climate has always changed, irrespective of humans. It holds there has only been gradual warming since 1850, not the drastic rise activists warn of, and no increase in extreme weather events. It concludes most scientists agree warming is occurring, but there is incredible diversity of opinions on its causes and solutions, contrary to claims of overwhelming consensus.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The claim that 97% of scientists agree humans are the main cause of climate change is contested, with an assertion that only 1.6% agree.
- 🔍 A critique of John Cook's study is presented, suggesting it misrepresented scientific consensus on climate change by aggregating different categories of agreement.
- 📊 According to the critique, Cook's analysis involved a statistical manipulation that excluded a significant portion of studies, inflating the consensus to 97%.
- 📚 The script argues that a majority of the papers Cook analyzed did not explicitly comment on mankind's role in climate change.
- 🔬 It's suggested that only a small fraction of the studies explicitly support the view that human activity is a major contributor to global warming.
- 🌡️ The narrative acknowledges a slow, marginal warming trend since the 1850s but disputes the extent of human responsibility.
- 📉 The script challenges the notion of a dramatic increase in extreme weather events, claiming there is no significant rise in hurricanes, floods, or forest fires attributable to climate change.
- 🐾 Claims about a dangerous shortage of polar bears and other climate-related catastrophes are contested.
- 🌳 Historical climate variability is highlighted, with references to colder periods in the Early Middle Ages and warmer periods when vineyards thrived in Scotland.
- ❄️ The Little Ice Age is mentioned to argue that climate has always changed independently of human activities.
Q & A
What percentage of scientists did the tweet by Barack Obama claim agree that climate change is real, man-made, and dangerous?
-Barack Obama's tweet claimed that 97% of scientists agree climate change is real, man-made, and dangerous.
Who published the paper in 2013 that aimed to demonstrate an overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change?
-The paper was published in 2013 by John Cook, a controversial environmental activist who runs the alarmist website Skeptical Science.
What statistical trick did John Cook use regarding the papers that did not comment on man's role in climate change?
-John Cook applied a statistical trick by leaving out the 67% of papers that did not comment on man's role in climate change. This caused the percentage of papers supporting man-made climate change to increase from 33% to 97%.
What percentage of studies actually supported the conclusion that mankind is responsible for a significant aspect of climate change?
-Only 1.6% of the studies analyzed supported the conclusion that mankind is responsible for a significant aspect of climate change.
What evidence does the script provide against the claim that extreme weather events have increased due to climate change?
-The script states there has been no increase in hurricanes, floods, or other forms of extreme weather events that could be attributed to climate change.
What natural climate variations over history are mentioned as evidence against man-made climate change?
-The early Middle Ages being much colder than now, the medieval warm period when vineyards existed in Scotland, and the Little Ice Age from the 16th-17th centuries are mentioned as evidence of natural climate variation.
What trend in global temperatures does the script state exists since the 1850s?
-The script states there has been a slow, marginal warming trend in global temperatures since the 1850s.
Why does the script argue it is illogical that 97% of scientists would agree man is mainly responsible for climate change?
-Because the climate has always changed due to natural causes, irrespective of and independent from human activity.
What is the main conclusion regarding the claimed 97% consensus among scientists on climate change?
-The claim that 97% of scientists agree man is mainly responsible for climate change is nonsense. At most, only 1.6% of studies supported that conclusion.
What does the script recommend regarding climate change policy?
-The script states there is no need to panic and implies no drastic policy changes are warranted to address climate change.
Outlines
😠The Myth of '97% of Scientists Agree' on Climate Change
This paragraph debunks the claim that 97% of scientists agree that climate change is man-made and dangerous. It analyzes a flawed study by John Cook that manipulated categories to create the illusion of consensus. It shows that actually only 1.6% of studies explicitly state humans cause over 50% of climate change.
😌Climate Has Always Changed, No Need to Panic
This paragraph explains that climate has naturally fluctuated throughout history, with eras of warmth and cold long before human influence. The recent warming since 1850 has been gradual, with no increase in extreme weather events. So there is no justification for panic or alarmism.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡97% consensus
💡climate change
💡CO2 emissions
💡environmental activists
💡medieval warming
💡natural climate change
💡no increase in extreme weather
💡polar bears
💡small ice age
💡statistical trick
Highlights
The 97% consensus on human-caused climate change is a false, blatant lie
In reality only 1.6% of scientists explicitly agree humans cause over 50% of climate change
John Cook's paper used flawed methods, misrepresenting categories to claim 97% consensus
Majority of papers simply state CO2 causes warming, not that humans drive over 50% of climate change
Climate has always changed, irrespective of human activity
Global temperatures have only slowly risen since 1850, not dangerously as activists claim
There has been no increase in extreme weather events
Droughts, fires have always existed; no need to panic over climate change
Early Middle Ages were much colder than now
Medieval Warm Period supported vineyards in Scotland, now under ice
16th-17th century Little Ice Age enabled walking on the Thames river
Polar bears are not endangered from climate change
Most scientists don't believe humans cause over 50% of warming
The climate has always changed naturally throughout history
No need to panic over gradual warming since 1850s
Transcripts
[Music] how often don't we hear that 97% of scientists agree that humans are the
cause of climate change that this climate change is severe posing a great threat
to our planet and that we need a drastic reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions
all of this and I mean all of it is false it's a blatant lie that 97% of scientists agree with it
in reality only 1.6% of scientists agree with the above statements and there's an incredible
diversity among climatologists geologists chemists Physicians and so on about the nature and causes
of possible changes in the global climate and an even greater diversity among energy experts
kinlist and the like about the best way to move forward from where we are now we will come to
talk about the rational response to the Lively and fascinating debate about planetary equilibria but
first let us have a look at the 97 myth itself this myth gained Global traction with a tweet by
Barack Obama on May 16th 20 2013 he posted and I quote 97% of scientists agree climate change
is real man-made and dangerous with this very tweet Obama referred to a paper published the
same year by a man called John Cook John Cook is a controversial environmental activist who runs
the alarmist website skeptical science in this paper he aimed to demonstrate an overwhelming
scientific consensus with the obvious intention of strengthening the environmentalist cause to
do so he analyzed 12,000 articles published in learned journals containing the words global
warming or climate change then he subdivided these articles into seven different categories
the first category contained papers which explicitly stated that GL warming exists
and that it is at least 50% man-made the second category contained papers which simply stated man
has a role in global warming but they did not in any way quantify that role the third that
an increase in CO2 in general has a warming effect the fourth category was papers which
did not comment on the role of mankind at all or which maintained that it is unclear whether
man has a role in climate change or not in the fifth category John Cook placed the papers which
suggested mankind has a minimal impact on global warming the sixth category then was the papers
which stated mankind probably does not have any effect at all on global warming and the
seventh category finally explicitly argued that man has less than 50% impact on on the global
climate John Cook took the results from the first second and third categories and brought
them all together into one group the pr group this amounted to 33% of all papers but the vast
majority of papers 67% belonged to category 4 papers that did not comment on man's role
in global warming to this group cook applied a statistical trick or rather he simply left these
studies out of the equation altogether causing the pr group to increase from 33% to 97% this
is how the myth of 97% scientific consensus was born but it gets worse in John Cook's study the
exact percentages for the separate categories are structurally omitted but they are only
taken together as one Collective group and this creates the illusion that all of these scientists
agree about man's role in global warming but in reality the categories one and two deal
with man's influence but Category 3 only deals with the effects of CO2 if you look at Cook's
underlying data and split up the categories you will see that the vast majority of studies
75% only supported the idea that CO2 in general has an effect on the climate only 1.6% support
the conclusion that mankind is responsible for a significant aspect of climate change not 97% but
1.6% so most scientists agree that there seems to have been a slow marginal warming Trend since the
1850s but the idea that 97% of scientists would agree that man is mainly responsible for this
is utter nonsense and this is completely logical too because the climate has as we all know always
changed irrespective of and independent from man's activities in the Early Middle Ages it
was a lot colder than it is now this period was followed by the era of medieval warmth in which
Vineyards were cultivated in Scotland and Lively settlements full of activities existed in places
that are now buried by hundreds of meters of ice a small Ice Age followed with its Heyday in
the 16th and 17th centuries when an elephant could walk on the temps and when we painted
these well-known Winters views in the Frozen Netherlands since 1850 then global temperatures
have slowly started to rise again very gradually the huge increase in the rise of temperature of
which activists have warned simply does not exist there's been no increase in hurricanes
floods or other forms of extreme weather nor is there a dangerous shortage of polar bears
drought and forest fires have existed existed throughout the ages and will continue to do
so so there's no need to panic whatsoever unfortunately most scientists agree with
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