Bitcoin BTC: When Will The Bull Run TOP? - NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT!

Summary

The video discusses predicting when the Bitcoin bull market will top out, analyzing the reliable 4-year cycle theory which points to an October 2025 peak versus alternate indicators like monthly RSI trends suggesting a potential earlier peak between November 2024 and March 2025. It emphasizes reacting to real price action and money flow cycles rather than predictions, as this Bitcoin cycle could deviate from past patterns, making the typical 4-year cycle potentially less certain.

Takeaways

• 😀 The bull market has unique characteristics like the ETF narrative and crypto money flow cycles
• 😎 Four-year cycle theory predicts Bitcoin will top out in October 2025
• 🤔 But monthly RSI chart suggests potentially earlier top between Nov 2024-March 2025
• 😮 Bitcoin has moved faster than expected, denting four-year cycle theory reliability
• 🤨 Other macro trends emerging that could indicate sooner Bitcoin top
• 🧐 Hard to invalidate four-year cycle theory until after major BTC price drop
• 😕 Four-year cycle deviations make price predictions more challenging
• 🤔 Monthly RSI breakout to top time decreasing each cycle - 335 days puts top in Dec 2024
• 😠 Can't blindly rely on four-year cycle theory this market cycle
• 🙂 React to altcoin season exhaustion and money flow cycle playing out to determine Bitcoin top

Q & A

4年サイクル理論とは何ですか?

4年サイクル理論は、ビットコインの価格行動が4年周期で起きるという理論です。具体的には、ハービング(発掘報酬半減)後に強気相場が始まり、約4年後に安値を打ちます。

ビットコインの価格上昇が4年サイクルよりも早くなった理由は何でしょうか?

今回のサイクルでは、ハービング前にすでに価格が大きく上昇しています。これは従来の4年サイクルとは異なる動きで、4年サイクル理論の予測精度に疑問を投げかけるものです。

月足RSIの67レベル突破は何を意味していますか?

月足RSIの67レベルは重要なレジスタンスゾーンです。このレベルを上抜けすると、過去のデータから判断してビットコインのサイクルトップが365日以内に訪れることが示唆されます。

2024年12月から2025年2月にかけてのビットコインの価格ピーク予測は何に基づいていますか?

月足RSIの67レベルからサイクルトップ到達までの日数が短縮されているトレンドに基づいています。これが続けば2024年12月から2025年2月にかけての価格ピークが予測されます。

4年サイクルが崩壊した場合のリスクとは何でしょうか?

4年サイクルが崩壊すれば、ビットコインの価格変動に関する予測可能性が失われます。その場合、価格がどう動くか全く予測できなくなるリスクがあります。

今回のビットコイン市場サイクルの特徴とは何ですか?

今回のサイクルでは、反応重視の姿勢が大切だとしています。4年サイクルなどのマクロトレンドを参考にしつつ、実際の価格変動に素早く反応できる体制が必要だと指摘しています。

オルトコインシーズン終了はピークシグナルと考えてよいでしょうか?

はい、オルトコインシーズンが長期化して枯渇感が出てきた場合、ビットコインのピークが近いシグナルと捉えることができるでしょう。

ビットコインのサイクルトップを予測する最も信頼できる指標は何でしょうか?

今回の市場環境下では4年サイクルが最も信頼できる予測指標だとしています。ただし、過信せず価格変動にも注視する必要があるとしています。

ビットコインが4年サイクル通り2025年10月にピークを打つ可能性をどの程度と考えればよいでしょうか?

4年サイクルが100%の精度で当たっているわけではないので、2025年10月のピーク予測を盲目的に信じるべきではありません。ただし最大の可能性としては考慮する価値があるでしょう。

今後のビットコイン価格予測の参考指標として何が最も重要だと思いますか?

複数のマクロトレンドを総合的に判断しつつ、実際の価格変動への反応スピードを上げることが今後の市場環境下で最も重要だと考えます。

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Highlights

The bull market has unique characteristics like the ETF narrative and realities.

Every bull market has similar aspects like crypto money flow from stablecoins to Bitcoin to altcoins.

We look at new macro trends forming on monthly charts to predict when the crypto bull market top could be.

The four year cycle theory predicts Bitcoin will top out around October 2025 based on past market cycles.

The 18.6 year real estate cycle also predicts a major economic collapse around 2025-2026, aligning with the four year cycle theory.

Recent price action shows Bitcoin moving much faster than the four year cycle predicted, putting some doubt on its reliability.

Using the monthly RSI level of 67, we could see a Bitcoin top between November 2024 and March 2025 rather than October 2025.

If the RSI trend is correct, we could see a bull market top over a year earlier than the four year cycle prediction.

If Bitcoin breaks the four year cycle, there is no basis for future price speculation or predictions.

It's best to focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting tops and bottoms.

We know the money flow from stablecoins to alts and back is a fundamental bull market characteristic.

We should phase out positions slowly when we see exhaustion signs like high RSI levels.

The four year cycle is still the most reliable Bitcoin trend so far.

This market cycle requires more reaction than prediction compared to past cycles.

We can make predictions but should view them cautiously and be ready to react.

Transcripts

ladies and gentlemen the bull market in

play has unique characteristics one of

those characteristics is the ETF

narrative and now the ETF realities now

obviously every single bull market has

similar aspects similar components like

crypto money cycle flow cash flowing

from usdt into Bitcoin into ethereum and

then triggering an altcoin season we

also have macro trends that Linger on

from previous Cycles such as the

fouryear Cycle Theory but in this video

we're looking into a new macro Trend

forming on the monthly chart taking a

look at when we think the cryptocurrency

bull market top might be will it be a

traditional top or will it be an

alternative top based on these new macro

Trends ladies and Gentlemen let's get

into

it okay guys before we get into the

content here today we've got the VIP

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you can take advantage of the bull

market check that out now let's get into

the content here today we're asking the

question in this video when will Bitcoin

top out in this bull market now

obviously the first part of this video

is going to be looking into something

like the fouryear cycle fouryear cycle

being kind of a textbook 101 strategy

for bull market top dates and then we've

got a second thing and that's the mon L

chart RSI okay so we have money flow to

look into as well and then finally we

have people like Steve from crypto cre

University predicting things like 79k

we're discussing all these things in

this video today trying to come to a

conclusion on when will the Bitcoin Bull

Run top be uh obviously you know

determining as well that there is a

degree of speculation there is things

that are subject to change here but we

have to have some possibilities in the

table so obviously first and foremost

foure cycle we'll try to be quick in

this video we don't want to drag it out

for too long get to point you know we

don't want to waste any of your time

here fouryear cycle is is textbook stuff

you know if you've been in crypto for

any period of time you know what the

fouryear cycle is it's a date range

trend on bitcoin triggered by the Haring

backed up by the election cycles that

basically predicts you know based on

these date range Trends these micro

Trends here that Bitcoin will be topping

out in about October 2025 so you can see

these date range Trends they're

colorcoded you can see it the yellow

writing lines up with the yellow date

range measurement the orange writing

lines up with the orange date range

measurement and if we just extrapolate

all this data from fouryear cycle across

it brings us to October 2025 you can see

it right here uh the pink date range

Trend and the orange date range Trend

extrapolating through to October 2025

and that is obviously the status quo for

Bitcoin because it's it's a trend that's

you know lasted since the first Haring

it's backed up by fundamentals in that

it's backed up by the Haring it's also

backed up the election cycle Theory uh

so basically there's a theory it's not

even a theory really it's just a trend

where election years in the United

States

pump traditional markets and hence pump

Bitcoin uh about three times higher than

regular non-election years now this is a

established Trend and it lines up of

2024 the Year we're seeing right now we

also have 18.6 year real estate economic

Cycle Theory uh now this is something

that someone like Jason bazo talks about

a lot but it is not Jason bazo's Trend

he did not discover this trend uh he's

just someone who talks about it a lot so

I don't feel like I need to give credit

to Jason bazo for talking about it fact

of the matter is the 18.6 year real

estate economic cycle is a real Trend

and it suggests as per the name uh that

every 18.6 years let's just say every 18

years there is a major economic collapse

essentially in traditional markets and

obviously that you know goes through to

bitcoin goes through to real estate uh

and that next collapse should be coming

according to this trend at around 2025

to 2026 now that lines up perfectly for

when the 4year cycle expects a top

because the foure cycle expects a top in

October 2025 so the foure cycle is you

know it's its own thing uh it's a

textbook 101 trend for Bitcoin it's a

staple it's the most reliable thing

Bitcoin has it still is valid uh and it

still does predict an October 2025 top

it's backed up by things like 18.6 year

real estate economic cycle by things

like the election cycle but it's not

guaranteed to work okay and in recent

days on bitcoin we have actually seen

some deviations okay in fact we're

seeing a deviation in this entire move

upwards uh so basically on bitcoin I'm

going to list out the Haring right now

so I'm going to get a vertical line I'm

going to draw out where the Haring are

one of the hars was in July 2016 we had

another Haring here in May 2020 we had

another Haring coming up in April 2024

uh and the first Haring on bitcoin ever

was I believe somewhere around uh June I

think June or July 2012 the point is we

don't really start bull markets until

after the harving this is a very well

established trend for Bitcoin you can

see in 2012 you know we go upwards from

the bottom sure we see some accumulation

but the bull market the actual

trajectory of Bitcoin rapidly increases

on an angle basis it like doubles after

the harving uh you know it's after the

harving we go upwards we saw it in 2012

we saw it over here in 2016 you know

after the Haring we really started to

increase our angle of trajectory to the

upside it was an exponential angle of

trajectory same thing in 2020 you know

our angle of trajectory yes we were

going upwards for a while Co delayed us

for a while but the angle trajectory

increased massively at the harving right

now we're in a situation where we are

already moving upwards hugely you know

we have a monthly candle forming right

now on bitcoin you know the monthly

candle of February which is ending in in

13 hours where we have a monthly candle

that's gone upwards

49% you know this is a bull market

monthly candle we've broken above levels

that we shouldn't have broken above

we've seen about a year of solid upside

price action with no confirm down Trends

whatsoever in the last 5 months on

bitcoin we've gone upwards about 149%

this is bull market price action if I've

ever seen it and I'm not just saying

that in a speculative kind of vague way

I'm saying that as we've broke Trends

know we had a trend on bitcoin which you

might remember me talking about you know

I've only stopped talking about it a few

days ago uh well I'll make these lines

pink so you can see them so these pink

lines on the price chart line up with an

important critical breakout level that

is fundamental to entering a bull market

and as you can see we generally reject

from that level once and it lines up

with a rejection from this red line on

the RSI uh we then enter a preh Haring

correction and then from there we see a

bull market that happened in 2016 it

also happened in 2019 the exact same

thing on the RSI on the price chart and

it look it kind of happened uh in 2024

you know last month we did see a 21%

correction but it wasn't extensive you

know it wasn't extensive we did reach

the same level in the RSI we saw that

correction but it didn't end up bringing

us down for a you know a massive period

of time so we've kind of deviated from a

speculative Trend there for Bitcoin uh

we've kind of deviated from what we

would be wanting to see if we were to be

maintaining maximum predictability

because obviously macro Trends give us

maximum predictability and the point is

just as a matter of fact this is not an

opinion this is just true Bitcoin has

moved a lot faster than the fouryear

cycle would have expected Bitcoin to

move now this hasn't invalidated the

4year cycle right but it has put a dent

in the armor of it because the problem

with the fouryear cycle is this 4year

cycle is extremely reliable okay it's

got a 100% success rate so far but when

it comes to invalidating the 4year cycle

since it's only based on tops and

bottoms it's impossible to invalidate

the 4year cycle or or identify an

invalidation to the 4year cycle until we

are down massively on bitcoin right

because anything that you know brings us

downwards on bitcoin if we went

downwards to 30k in the next 3 days that

wouldn't technically invalidate the

fouryear cycle because the fouryear

cycle relies on tops and bottoms that

would just be a correction and we would

be speculating that we'd go upwards

until October 2025 the only way we could

properly actually invalidate this 4E

cycle and know about it is if Bitcoin

started dropping below really critical

major macro levels and by that time by

the time we even know it's broken the

4year cycle we rated downwards 50 60 70%

we've lost all our money right that's

the problem with the 4 cycle it's very

difficult to know when it's actually

broken so we have to be open to other

possibilities and we have to be basing

our exit strategy of you know on

something more than the 4year cycle

especially considering uh there have

been dents in the armor of it with a

break of this previous macro Trend that

lasted 12 years right it wasn't as

strong as the foure cycle it wasn't

nearly as important but it still was a

big thing the fact that we're moving

faster than expected we're seeing a bull

market before the Haring rather than

after the Haring these are big things

that need to be taken into consideration

and so now you know someone like meell

crypto very close to Mega crypto we

developed the course together he would

say that the monthly chart RSI is very

important in determining an exit

strategy I would agree however we're

actually taking different angles in in

how we look at it I'm looking at the 67

level on the monthly chart RSI while

he's looking at the 80 level and there

are some differences now I'm going to be

discussing this with mega crypto

personally very soon and perhaps we'll

come to some sort of agreement but right

now I'm going to stick to my analysis of

the RSI level because I think obviously

uh it is uh very good uh you know we're

looking at that 67 level it's validated

by a price action it's validated by what

we used to see as preh Haring

Corrections you know we re Ed from it

here in 2016 rejected from here in 2019

it led up with you know it lined up with

rejections from the relevant levels uh

and now we've broken above 67 on the

monthly chart RSI what we can see is

this okay we can look at how long

historically it's taken for Bitcoin to

go from a break of 67 on the monthly

chart RSI to a cyclical top right in

2013 it took 488 days in 2017 it took

395 days in 2020 it took 360 5 days and

what we can see out of those three data

points is that they're all structurally

the same they're all cyclical bull

markets they all have you know the same

level of respect for 67 on the monthly

chart RSI for example we flipped it for

support here in 2012 we rejected from it

here in 2016 we rejected from here in

2019 before breaking it every single

cycle here every single data point has a

respect for that 67 level uh and what we

can actually see as well is that from

the time of the breakout above 67 on the

monthly chart RSI it takes a decreasing

amount of time to reach the cyclical top

from cycle to cycle again cycle 1 488

days cycle 2 3 95 and then cycle 3 365

if we were to continue that Trend

onwards we could suspect that it would

take around

335 days from the break of 67 on the RSI

to reach our top which would be a

December 2024 top now obviously this is

very speculative it could take more you

know 30 days more 30 days less but we're

looking at anything between say November

and say February or March so let's just

say from November to March 2025 that's

what we're really looking at for for a

top prediction based on this trend here

using the monthly chart RSI now here's

the thing we can't be precise with it

it's very difficult to be precise with a

trend like this because the date range

trend is still uh still kind of you know

increasing with precision as Cycles

cross but if this was to play out right

in any form no matter how accurate or

inaccurate it is if we see a top on

bitcoin as per this trend between say

December and February right so let's

just say December and February 3-mth

period that's still a massive difference

from the predicted October 2025 top uh

from the 4year cycle so let me just make

something very clear here if this trend

is correct we could be seeing a bull

market top on Bitcoin in this year or at

the start of next year when the fouryear

cycle predicts a bull market top at the

very end of 2025 which is next year so

you can see now you know the Market's

getting a bit more complicated and and

as we are putting dents in the armor of

something like the fouryear Cycle Theory

again it's still valid it's still on the

table we need to consider these

alternate possibilities the problem is

these ultimate possibilities they do

exist and they are worth looking at but

they're not very precise they're very

loose and this is what I feared and my

fears are coming true here you know if

Bitcoin does break for your cycle

there's no basis for any kind of spec

ation on bitcoin price action whatsoever

we break foure cycle who's to say we'll

see a regular year-long bare Market

followed by a regular 2-year

accumulation followed by a one-year bare

Market that's the fouryear cycle that's

all Bitcoin has ever done the only macro

price action that Bitcoin has ever seen

ever has happened within the 4year cycle

you know say what you will about whether

you think it's going to break or not we

don't want this thing to break you know

cuz we don't know what's going to happen

next if it does we are fully in the dark

we will have never seen price action uh

you know outside of the fouryear cycle

we've never seen it before so how do we

know what's going to happen next this

goes that's the problem uh you know the

other day when we broke this macro Trend

that suggested a Haring a correction

before the Haring we broke that

long-term cyclical predictability and

that's really not what we want to see

because now we're put in a situation

where we have to start guessing uh and

and that's not a good situation so what

I'll propose to you is this in a

financial Market they ask things you can

look at there are predictions you can

make but in all cases it's always best

to focus on reaction reacting rather

than predicting right what we do know is

this we have a cyclical trend on bitcoin

through the 4year cycle it is very

reliable but it's not guaranteed to work

especially this time around we have

other developing trends like this trend

here which suggests an earlier top in

the 4year cycle we can look at these

things we can debate all day about which

one is better or which one is more

useful or we can just react to the price

action when it occurs you know if we see

Bitcoin dropping downwards massively if

we see uh the crypto money flow having

played out you know this is a

fundamental part of of bull markets for

Bitcoin you know we see the the cash

flow from Stables into Bitcoin into

ethereum into altcoins and then back

into Stables if that entire money flow

cycle has occurred if we've seen the

altcoin season if Bitcoin dominance is

reaching bottoms and we are you know not

within the date range predictions of

either of these Trends we have to really

start to consider that hey look the

bottom might uh the top might actually

be in uh because these Trends have have

been proven now to an extent to be uh

Les slightly less reliable this time

around uh than they would have been in

previous Cycles so we have to focus more

on reacting we can observe what is true

throughout all Cycles what is true

throughout all Cycles well crypto money

flow is true when we see an altcoin

season and that altcoin season is

dragged out for a long period of time

and we start to see exhaust exhaustion

showing on the macro charts we start to

reach these upper levels on the monthly

chart RSI like this uh for example this

yellow line here we start to reach that

level for resistance then we need to be

ultra cautious we need to start fa you

know zoning out of the market phasing

out of the market slowly uh and reacting

to the situation effectively not just

waiting for something like October 2025

you know even though the fouryear cycle

was very good very valid we can't just

be blindly waiting for October 2025 and

ignoring any downside price action you

know in hopes that we' just follow a

regular cycle again because look it's

not certain that we will uh this is a

market uh particularly this time this is

a market cycle that is more about

reacting than predicting now with that

said I will make predictions as per

4year cycle uh but I will make them with

a grain of salt and they will come at

the Haring right now I do have current

predictions 103 to 197k I'll narrow them

down at the harving but look for your

cycle in my opinion this time around as

I've said is weaker than before as I've

said this Market cycle specifically is

more about reacting than predicting uh

we know what the characteristics of a

bull market are they they follow the the

money flow cycle once we see that entire

money flow cycle play out and we do see

that exhaustion that is when we're going

to react so guys I hope you got

knowledge out of this video uh I know

there was knowledge sprinkled throughout

it there was no real one clear

conclusion as to when the top will be I

don't think unfortunately we're in a

position to make that clear conclusion

if I was to be asked the question what

is the most reliable trend on bitcoin I

would still say the fouryear cycle and

hence I would still say the October 2025

top has the most Merit but I don't think

it's certain and I don't even think it's

something I would put huge swaps of

money betting on it would occur like I

would have last cycle last like I was

completely convinced by it now I'm

seeing different Market environments I'm

seeing changes here uh and I'm very I'm

very careful right not to jump on the

bandwagon where people say oh this

time's different this time's different

I'm very careful not to do that I'm

still saying this is valid I'm just

being cautious with it and I think

that's the logical approach approach to

take so Guys Without further Ado we'll

end the video there again check out Bing

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Academy and check out the VIP group

thank you so much for watching I hope

you enjoyed the video and I'll catch you

in the next one cheers