Sam Altmans UBI Study Is DONE! The Data is In...

Summary

Tech leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI) as technology automates jobs. A 2022 study showed UBI recipients spent on essentials, not vices, and worked slightly less, with no negative impact on the economy. Altman warns that without adapting public policy, most people could be worse off due to AI-driven unemployment, suggesting UBI as a necessary policy to support those affected by technological advancements.

Takeaways

• 🤖 Tech leaders like Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by automation.
• 🔮 Altman predicted in 2016 that new technology would eliminate traditional jobs and create wealth, leading to a national-scale implementation of UBI in the future.
• 📚 Open research pilot studies in Illinois and Texas provided low-income participants with a monthly UBI of $1,000, with a control group receiving $50, to study the effects of UBI.
• 🏠 Beneficiaries of the UBI pilot study used the funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, debunking the myth that UBI would be spent on vices.
• 💰 The study showed that UBI recipients experienced reduced stress and increased savings, highlighting the potential benefits of UBI on personal well-being.
• 📉 Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually, suggesting that some individuals chose to work less with the financial security of UBI.
• 🤔 The Vox article discussed the potential confusion in interpreting the data from UBI studies, emphasizing that individual outcomes can vary widely.
• 💡 The case for UBI should be insulated from the volatility of AI and not solely based on the fear of AI-driven unemployment, according to the Vox article.
• 🌐 Altman and other tech figures, including AI pioneer Jeffrey Hinton, believe that AI will cause technological unemployment and that UBI will be necessary.
• 🚫 The argument against tying UBI to rapid AI progress is that if AI does not lead to significant job loss, support for UBI could wane.
• 🇩🇪 Germany's laws requiring companies to notify work councils about AI adoption is an example of proactive policy management in the face of technological change.

Q & A

What is Sam Altman's view on Universal Basic Income (UBI) and its relation to technological advancements?

Sam Altman believes that as new technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, some version of UBI will likely be implemented at a national scale in the future.

What was the purpose of the open research pilot study on UBI that began in 2020?

The study aimed to observe the effects of providing low-income participants from various areas with a monthly stipend of $1,000, and to understand how unconditional payments might impact individuals in the future with increased automation.

What were the average household incomes of the participants in the UBI study?

On average, the household incomes of the participants were under $29,000, with all beneficiaries at or under 300% of the federal poverty line.

How long was the UBI study mentioned in the script, and why is its length significant?

The study was conducted over three years, making it one of the longest UBI studies, which is significant for understanding long-term effects of UBI on individuals and society.

What did the researchers find regarding how participants used the UBI funds?

The researchers found that participants used the funds to buy essentials like food, rent, and transportation, rather than vices, debunking the myth that UBI recipients would spend the money recklessly.

How did the UBI study impact labor participation among the participants?

Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually. However, this reduction was not uniform and varied among individuals based on their personal circumstances.

What is the argument made by the Vox article regarding the case for basic income and AI?

The Vox article suggests that the case for basic income should not be solely based on the fear of rapid AI progress, as it could make the support for UBI more vulnerable if AI does not lead to significant job displacement.

What is the potential risk of linking the necessity of UBI to the progress of AI, according to the script?

The risk is that if AI does not cause a 'Great Wave' of unemployment as feared, the support for UBI might fall, as it would be seen as less necessary.

What is the role of work councils in Germany regarding the adoption of AI and other new technologies?

In Germany, companies are required by law to notify their work councils about AI and other new technologies they plan to adopt. Work councils are management committees that discuss various aspects of work, including the effects of AI.

What tool did the speaker create to help individuals understand the impact of AI on different jobs?

The speaker created a database listing over 170 different jobs that are impacted by AI, including the industry, susceptibility to AI, the AI tools affecting it, and links to those tools.

What is the speaker's stance on the necessity of UBI in the face of increasing AI capabilities?

The speaker believes that as technology becomes more capable, there will be a need for programs to help those affected by AI, suggesting that UBI might be one such program.