Building a Portfolio for 2025 | Stars Portfolio Month 3 Update

Summary

In this video, the creator provides an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions, focusing on the volatility of Nifty and the impact of global events like the US-China trade war. Despite a recent 25% drop in their portfolio, they maintain a positive outlook on India's market, predicting a recovery once trade tensions settle. The creator discusses strategies for navigating the downturn, including averaging select stocks and staying patient. With an eye on global shifts, they emphasize a long-term approach to investing, confident that the market will bounce back.

Takeaways

• 😀 The market has been volatile, with significant drops and no clear signs of sustained recovery, especially in the US and Japanese markets.
• 😀 The speaker mentions that the US's tariff issues and political volatility are major contributors to global market instability, including in India.
• 😀 Despite global challenges, India is seen as having a strong position and could recover faster than other markets, especially if trade agreements are successfully negotiated.
• 😀 The speaker's personal portfolio is down by 25% over the past three months, but they believe the dip is temporary and the portfolio will eventually recover.
• 😀 A key focus of the portfolio's performance is on small-cap stocks, with the speaker optimistic about their recovery once the market stabilizes.
• 😀 Despite a current market downturn, the speaker remains bullish about India’s prospects, believing that news of successful trade negotiations will boost the market.
• 😀 The portfolio includes a variety of companies, some of which have suffered significant losses, but others like Vun Beverages are performing positively.
• 😀 A strategy of averaging down in the market is discussed, with the speaker indicating they will only average stocks that show strong recovery potential.
• 😀 Volatility is highlighted as a central issue, with the speaker acknowledging that factors like Trump's tariffs and geopolitical tensions are contributing to the market's unpredictability.
• 😀 The speaker is confident that India will eventually reach favorable trade agreements that will help stabilize and drive growth in the Nifty market, pushing it into a bull run.

Q & A

What is the current situation with Nifty according to the speaker?

The market is not in a good shape, with a lot of bad news, and it experienced a significant fall from September. A brief recovery occurred in early March, but the speaker notes that the market is still volatile and uncertain, largely due to external factors like the US-China tariffs and global tensions.

How did the market perform in March, according to the speaker?

In March, there was a recovery in the first week, and the market went back up to 23,750 on March 25. However, despite this recovery, the market's long-term outlook remains uncertain due to external factors like tariffs and geopolitical issues.

What specific issues are affecting the global markets?

The US-China trade tariffs and retaliatory actions from other countries, including Japan, are creating significant volatility. The Japanese market experienced a drastic drop, and the US markets are also facing major declines. The uncertainty around tariffs and their economic impact is one of the key factors destabilizing the global markets.

How has the Indian market been impacted by the global situation?

While the Indian market has been affected by global volatility, the speaker believes that India is in a strong position. The economic fundamentals within India remain solid, and the speaker is optimistic about India’s ability to recover quickly once global issues like tariffs are resolved.

What role does the US market play in the current global volatility?

The US market is a major contributor to global market volatility. Due to the ongoing tariff issues and the uncertainty surrounding them, US markets have been fluctuating significantly, which has impacted other markets, including India.

What is the speaker's outlook on the US economy?

The speaker mentions that there is talk of a potential US recession, which could negatively affect the IT sector. However, they believe this will be a temporary issue, and once the US resolves its tariff disputes and inflation concerns, the market will begin to recover.

What is the state of the speaker's personal portfolio?

The speaker's portfolio is currently down 25% over the last three months, largely due to the market volatility. However, they are tracking their portfolio closely and believe this is a temporary dip, with expectations for recovery once global uncertainties are addressed.

What specific stocks are most affected in the speaker’s portfolio?

The most affected stocks in the speaker's portfolio are Upper Industries, Anandra, Zagal, Motil, Inova, Kaplan, Prudent, Noama, and PGL. These companies have seen significant drops due to various issues, including industry challenges and market-wide declines.

What strategy is the speaker using to manage their portfolio during this downturn?

The speaker is considering averaging down on their positions in selected stocks that they believe have strong recovery potential. They emphasize that this will not be a blanket averaging, but a targeted approach where they will focus on stocks with higher chances of recovering once the market rebounds.

What is the speaker’s expectation for the market's recovery?

The speaker believes the current market dip is temporary and expects a recovery once news emerges about India negotiating a favorable deal with the US, particularly regarding tariffs. They believe that once this happens, Nifty and other markets will start to rise again. However, they acknowledge that the process will take time and that volatility will continue in the short term.