What's Top of Mind for Global Supply Chains Today?
Summary
TLDR在这段访谈中,主持人与国际贸易律师Michael Taylor讨论了新冠疫情对全球供应链的影响。疫情导致供应链放缓,特别是对依赖即时生产和国际运输的公司。此外,他们还讨论了不公平的外国竞争,特别是政府补贴对制造业的影响。Taylor指出,许多国家正在向本国制造业注入资金,可能导致补贴问题。访谈还涉及了美国政府的贸易政策,包括对中国的关税政策,以及拜登政府对制造业回归美国的态度。他们还探讨了公司是否应该重新考虑其供应链,并考虑将生产转移到北美其他地区,如墨西哥。
Takeaways
- 🌐 疫情对全球供应链的可见性造成了影响,导致公司在国际供应链中寻找原材料和成品时遇到了问题,特别是那些依赖即时交付的公司。
- 📉 由于海外工厂关闭,运输延误和航运问题,依赖即时交付的公司面临挑战。
- 💡 贸易救济法可用于解决不公平的外国竞争问题,如倾销和补贴,这些做法可能会扭曲市场,使国内制造商面临不公平竞争。
- 🇨🇳 中国在补贴问题上是主要的关注点,但美国和欧洲之间在航空航天等领域也存在长期的补贴争议。
- 🔄 拜登政府继续执行特朗普政府的许多贸易政策,包括在贸易方面的政策,尽管在语气和信息传递上有所不同。
- 🏭 制造业回流美国面临挑战,包括劳动力短缺和基础设施建设的时间。
- 🚢 亚洲至美国西海岸的严重拥堵也是促使制造商考虑在北美制造的因素之一。
- 🛂 拜登政府对关键供应链的审查和推动国内生产某些基本产品,可能会影响公司是否回流的决策。
- 🛍️ “购买美国”政策主要针对政府采购,但通过资金援助和拨款等间接方式,也可能影响公司的供应链决策。
- 🇲🇽 除了美国,墨西哥和其他北美地区也是公司考虑的制造地点,这得益于USMCA协议。
- 🔮 目前许多公司正在考虑其供应链决策,尚未形成明确的趋势,我们正处于一个过渡期。
Q & A
新冠疫情如何影响了公司对其全球供应链的可见性?
-疫情导致事情放缓,公司发现他们对国际供应链的依赖,特别是在寻找原材料和成品时,对其他国家的依赖在没有仓储空间的情况下,正导致问题,尤其是那些依赖即时交付的公司,因为海外工厂的关闭导致了货物交付的延迟。
公司目前应该警惕哪些不公平的外国竞争形式?
-公司应该警惕不公平的定价,比如产品以低于正常价值的价格销售(倾销)或得到补贴的情况。过去几个月,一些国家开始向本国制造业注入大量资金,这可能会产生补贴问题,使得不同地区的制造商面临来自得到政府补贴、能够降低价格以获取市场份额的公司的竞争。
中国在当前全球供应链问题中扮演了怎样的角色?
-中国是主要参与者,但不仅仅是中国,美国和欧洲之间也存在长期的补贴问题,例如在航空航天领域。全球各国都可能参与补贴实践,但有些补贴是合法的,而有些则会造成全球性的破坏。
拜登政府维持特朗普政府的关税政策对制造业有何影响?
-这些关税政策可能导致公司重新考虑他们的制造来源。拜登政府实际上继续执行了许多特朗普政府的贸易政策,这在贸易领域并没有太大的不同。
制造业从亚洲回归美国的可能性有多大?
-目前,一些公司在尝试将制造业迁回美国时遇到了劳动力和空间的问题。劳动力短缺和建立基础设施需要时间,但长期来看,这些问题可能会得到解决。
美国西海岸港口的拥堵是否促使制造商考虑在北美制造?
-拥堵是促使制造商考虑在北美制造的多种因素之一。公司现在更加意识到供应链风险,包括原材料供应的不确定性和运输中断。
拜登政府关于关键供应链的贸易政策和审查是否会推动制造业回归?
-目前还为时过早,无法确定这是否会真正推动人们回归。政府显然希望这样做,但这更多的是为了推动已经发生的事情,而不是完全由美国推动。
买美国运动是否会影响公司考虑国内供应链制造?
-是的,买美国运动不仅影响政府采购,还可能影响公司考虑国内供应链制造,因为政府提供的资金通常附带条件,这可能会促使公司重新考虑他们的制造地点。
除了美国和亚洲,北美其他地区,如墨西哥,是否成为公司考虑的制造地点?
-是的,北美作为一个整体,包括美国、墨西哥和加拿大,由于USMCA协议,可能会从一些政策中受益,成为公司考虑的制造地点。
目前是否处于公司考虑供应链问题的过渡期?
-是的,公司目前正在考虑这些问题,但尚未看到明显的向一个方向的趋势。许多公司正在制定长期计划,这需要时间来实施。
公司在考虑重新安排供应链时,会考虑哪些因素?
-公司在考虑重新安排供应链时,会考虑运输、制造、融资以及与这些活动相关的所有因素,以确保稳定性并控制他们的供应链。
Outlines
🌐 全球供应链的挑战与疫情影响
本段讨论了疫情对全球供应链的影响,特别是对依赖即时生产和国际供应链的公司造成的挑战。由于海外工厂关闭,导致依赖即时交货的公司面临问题。此外,还提到了贸易中的不公平竞争问题,如倾销和补贴,以及各国政府为重启制造业而投入资金可能导致的补贴问题。
🚢 制造业回流与西海岸港口拥堵
这段内容探讨了制造业从亚洲回流到美国的可能性,以及拜登政府继续执行特朗普政府的贸易政策。讨论了公司在尝试回流时面临的挑战,包括劳动力短缺和建立基础设施所需的时间。同时,还提到了西海岸港口的严重拥堵问题,这可能促使制造商考虑在北美制造以避免运输延误。
🛠️ 制造业的地缘政治与供应链多元化
最后一段讨论了地缘政治对制造业决策的影响,以及公司如何考虑将生产从中国转移到其他国家或地区,如北美。提到了USMCA(美墨加协定)使北美整体受益,并指出许多公司正在考虑长期计划,以更稳定地控制其供应链。还讨论了拜登政府的“购买美国货”政策可能如何影响公司的国内供应链决策。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡全球供应链
💡疫情影响
💡即时交付
💡不公平的外国竞争
💡补贴
💡贸易补救法
💡制造业回流
💡美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定(USMCA)
💡关键供应链
💡购买美国货
💡过渡期
Highlights
全球供应链受疫情影响,导致公司实现供应链可视化的能力下降。
公司发现对其他国家或实体的依赖,特别是在及时交付方面,因海外工厂关闭而出现问题。
贸易救济法可用于解决因政府补贴导致的不公平竞争问题。
不仅是中国,世界各国都可能参与补贴实践,这可能对全球供应链造成干扰。
特朗普政府实施的关税政策被拜登政府维持,促使公司重新考虑其制造来源。
制造业从亚洲回归美国面临劳动力和基础设施建设的挑战。
美国西海岸港口的严重拥堵也是促使制造商考虑在北美制造的因素之一。
企业未充分考虑货运中断、健康中断和其他制造地点的风险。
拜登政府的贸易政策和关键供应链审查可能推动国内生产某些类型的基本产品。
购买美国货(Buy America)政策主要针对政府采购,但也会影响公司考虑国内供应链制造。
除了亚洲和美国,墨西哥和其他北美地区也是公司考虑的制造地点。
公司目前处于过渡期,正在考虑供应链和制造决策。
CEO和董事会正在考虑长期计划,以更好地控制全球供应链。
一些公司正在战略性地决定留在全球供应链中,但会增加控制。
其他公司则在等待观望,希望与美国有稳定关系的国家重新岸上化。
运输、生产线、融资等都与重新岸上化相关。
尽管不是所有公司都已做出决定,但许多人正在尝试现在采取行动。
预计未来两年将是观察公司如何调整其供应链和制造决策的有趣时期。
Transcripts
[Music]
what's top of mind for global supply
chains right now
i'm joined by michael taylor partner for
international trade with the law firm of
king and spalding hi mike how you doing
doing well how about yourself good
thanks for being with me today so how
has the pandemic impacted companies
ability to achieve visibility of their
global supply chains
well i think the
the
easy answer to that is things have
slowed down
people are all of a sudden finding that
as they looked internationally over the
last 20 years in their supply chain and
looking for inputs raw materials but
also looking for finished products in
many cases
that their dependence on
another entity or another country for
getting goods to them in timely manners
without warehousing space is causing
problems for those companies that are
relying on just-in-time delivery because
factories overseas are shutting down and
they're sitting down here as well and
then there's delays in freight and
shipping issues yeah and of course there
are plenty of problems that were in
existence before the pandemic one of
which is of course unfair foreign
competition what should companies be
looking out for right now in that area
and what form is that currently taking
so we represent a number of u.s
manufacturers in this space and it's a
great question i think companies that
are involved in manufacturing that are
seeing unfair pricing so they're seeing
either products that are coming in
that are causing uh competition with
their product because they're being sold
below a normal value which is called
dumping or if they're being subsidized
um and what we're really starting to see
over the past few months from a policy
perspective is countries are starting to
pump a lot of money into manufacturing
in their countries to get it restarted
and that could create some subsidy
issues
where
manufacturers in different locations are
having to face competition from
companies that are manufacturing
government subsidies they're allowing
them to lower their prices in order to
take market share
and so the trade remedy laws are
available to address that situation and
you're not just talking about china when
you say that are you or is china the big
the big fish in this in this whole
scenario
yeah china's the big fish but not just
china for sure
there's
long-standing subsidy questions between
the united states and europe and
aerospace for example
but countries all over the world can
engage in subsidy practices and
subsidies are some subsidies are
perfectly
legitimate and fine under international
laws subsidies that cause uh disruption
and that everybody in the world has
agreed to account available that are
that are problematic and and uh it's
across the board but china you know i
think a lot of people are looking to
china and see that they've got a long
history of counter-available subsidies
yeah now the
pandemic is one issue but then of course
the tariffs that were put in place by
the trump administration and as of this
date maintained by the bide
administration are also a big issue that
are causing companies maybe to
reconsider where they source their
manufacturing
what are the real world prospects
however for the restoring of
manufacturing from asia back to the
united states what's the reality there
well you know
you
take a step back and something
underlying your question it's important
for everyone to realize that the the
biden administration is really carrying
forward a lot of the trump
administration policies with respect to
trade it's one area where there's not a
lot of difference between the bible
administration and the trump
administration um there's a different
tone for sure and some different
messaging but the core
is really the same and the
administration has really run with the
idea of reassuring in the same way that
the trump administration had run and
laid the groundwork for that that that
idea um and there are some delays and
there are some issues with companies who
are trying to reshore right now it's
work is having a workforce the united
states and i think that's probably uh um
over time we'll level out i mean what
we're hearing from companies who are
trying to reshore right now is getting
the workforce
because a number of people are not
willing under coded situations to come
in and work in a situation and or
there's just a tight workforce right now
in the united states
but getting space uh it takes time we
have a number of clients we're working
with as well that are trying to reshore
but it takes time to build the
infrastructure and to put the capital
investment and to build things and so
yeah
i think the byte administration knows
that and it's interesting how that is
tailing into this new infrastructure
plan that they've got in place yeah not
only do they have to bring a fat
factories back to the united states they
have to relocate or put in proximity to
those factories all the suppliers that
feed those factories so i imagine that's
a very very complex issue
at the same time though i wonder if
another
reason why they might be considering it
is congestion
severe congestion at west coast sports
specifically
materials coming in from asia is that a
factor also in causing manufacturers to
think about hey will
maybe the way to get around that is to
manufacture here in the north america
yeah i think that's one of many factors
and it's insightful i think what
happened is you know looking back 10 or
20 years ago
a number of companies decided from a
manufacturing standpoint that they had
some
they could have gained profit by moving
overseas and by
distributing internationally and there's
some real reasons to go international
right because you have an international
supply base and you have different
chains but some companies that we're not
thinking about the risk of freight
disruptions of
uh
covid right health disruptions and other
manufacturing locations i think a lot of
that is now coming where people who just
did didn't do the math they just saw the
they didn't do the risk calculation they
saw higher profitability potential
without understanding that there's
additional risk there
those folks are starting to understand
that risk issue which includes freight
which includes congestion imports which
includes includes you know short numbers
of vessels who are able to
load containers and carry back and forth
the inability to get get materials when
you need them
that is all now coming back and
companies are saying hey what is the
equation you know we can account for
freight but we may not be account be
able to account for raw material
instructions they may say we can do both
we can account for both but they've got
i think people's eyes are open more now
than they were 20 years ago when they're
thinking about where to put their
factors oh also do you think that byte
administrations do trade policy with
regard to
critical supply chains it's review of
critical supply chains and is looking
into i guess what would be a pumping up
kind of a domestic source of certain
types of essential products do you think
that is also going to play into
decisions as to whether or not to
reshore
it's interesting to see whether it will
or not i think it's a little too early
to know whether it will actually drive
people the obvious administration
clearly wants it to drive
um i i think it really the way i've been
thinking about is it's more wind uh to
try and push along some momentum that's
already happening i think economic
factors have caused people to think
about reshoring or at least securing
their supply chain and controlling their
supply chain themselves in ways that
they hadn't previously
um and what the by administration supply
chain announcements by america tied into
that but not necessarily just all by
america is really focused at let's do
what we can to ensure that we don't have
a situation like covid
issues again where we can't get key
medicine we can't get key materials
and they're really driving people to
look at allies not just united states
but allies for manufacturing bases but
also to drive you know policy away from
china for political reasons well my
understanding is that the buy america
campaign on the part of the buy
administration is largely aimed at
government procurement because the
government doesn't really have the
ability or the authority to tell
companies where they can source stuff
that they're making just for the
consumer market but is there a link
there
do you think that that will be further
impetus for companies to consider
domestic supply chain manufacturing
just in some way related to this buy
america idea
yeah oh clearly i do um you know
it's not just government procurement
directly when you think about it by
america and by american policies and
it's a it's an onion of an issue because
there's lots of different layers that go
to it but ultimately
what what the idea behind that is where
the government provides money that money
comes with strings and so there's always
direct purchases by the government
through the federal acquisition
regulations but in addition there's
grant money there's money that goes
through the states for epa funding for
example for clean water issues there's
money for technology there's in the new
infrastructure bill if you if you see
what's pending right now
in congress
there are a lot of strings attached to
the trillion 1.2 trillion in money
that's available or at least potentially
available to ensure you know
see lines of communication and good good
avenues for infrastructure making sure
that all of that is
you know the money that's being spent is
to promote economic growth in the united
states and as a result yeah there will
be companies i think who are saying hey
there's a big pot of money out there
even though it may not be a direct i'm
selling to the government
i'm going to have to expect that
somebody i'm selling to ultimately may
be getting a grant through a state that
has federal funds attached to it that
may come with strings
so far our discussion has been pretty
binary has they've been either well
they're going to continue to manufacture
in asia they're going to bring back the
united states are of course other
options one of which is mexico and other
parts of north america is that a
consideration right now that companies
are making as well sure sure and i think
i think it was interesting to see even
under the trump administration uh when
they were having the you know the trade
war with china and the
section 301 tariffs you were talking
about with china you know exclusions
were being granted at the time even on
the trump administration not for
necessarily moving things because
something wasn't available for being
made in the united states
it just it wasn't available
outside of china so there was a real
effort i think to move things in that
that realm away from china but to other
countries because of the the
geopolitical issues
so the administration i think is also
carrying forward on that that sense
where there's a there's a recognition
that with china policies um there's a
there is an ability of the united states
to drive policy if manufacturing is
happening outside of china but less so
within china
and so they're happy to do that but
north america as a whole with the usmca
the u.s mexico canada agreement i think
north america as a whole is a
beneficiary of some of its policies
not just the united states it does feel
like so much still up in the air though
like a lot of decisions haven't been
made companies are thinking about these
things but we're not seeing a strong
trend in one direction or the other and
would that be fair to say that we're in
kind of a transitional period right now
as companies mull over these issues
yes i think that's that's insightful i i
would say that there's probably more
momentum behind the scenes
um it's just taking time
i the first say two years of the trump
administration i think a lot of
companies were standing by waiting to
see what happened
i think now um you know
five years into a lot of this stuff
starting to happen and the buy
demonstration picking up and running
with a lot of the same things
what you're starting to i think see is
uh ceos and boardroom and audit
committees on boards saying hey we need
to have a long-term plan here and it
takes time to put that in place
um and so there are some companies who
are being strategic and saying we're
going to stay with our manufacturing our
supply chains throughout the world but
we're going to control it more there are
other companies who are
waiting to see what happens still i
think that's fewer i think wards are
driving from a fiduciary standpoint to
make decisions i think uh the other set
is people who are saying hey we want to
reshore or at least reshore in quotes to
countries where um the united states
traditionally would see them as an ally
or at least has a relationship so
there's some more stability and that
goes to that goes to uh
transportation it goes to manufacturing
lines it goes to financing and all the
things that go along with it so not
everybody's made decisions but there are
a lot of people deciding that they try
to do something now and you'll see that
i think in the next two years it'll be
very interesting to see uh michael
taylor of king and spaulding thank you
very much for enlightening us as to what
are some of the issues these days with
regard to reshoring international trade
decisions manufacturing and the like
thank you for being with me today i
really appreciate it
thank you
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