Ethiopia’s Amhara Conflict Explained

Summary

This video explores the current turmoil in Ethiopia, focusing on the escalating conflict in the Amhara region since the end of the civil war in 2022. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's initial reforms sparked hope but have since led to renewed violence and ethnic tensions among the major groups, particularly the Amhara and Oromo. With the Fano militia launching recent offensives, including a significant assault on Gondar, the government's attempts to restore order have faltered. The complex interplay of local grievances, historical resentments, and the potential for broader regional instability highlight the challenges facing Ethiopia today.

Takeaways

• 🌟 Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2019, sparking initial optimism for economic reform and peace.
• 🏆 He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for negotiating peace with Eritrea, marking a significant diplomatic achievement.
• ⚔️ The optimism quickly faded due to a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, which ended in November 2022.
• 🔥 The Amhara region is currently facing a resurgence of violence, particularly from the Amhara militia known as Fano, amid increasing ethnic tensions.
• 📊 Ethiopia's federal structure consists of 12 semi-autonomous regions, primarily divided along ethnic lines, which complicates governance.
• 🤝 The Amhara ethnic group, which represents 27% of the population, has historically resented the dominance of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in federal politics.
• 🗺️ Amhara elites supported Abiy Ahmed's centralizing efforts, hoping for increased political power and favorable territorial arrangements.
• 🚨 Following the TPLF war, sporadic skirmishes continued, culminating in a renewed offensive by Fano in Gondar, a major city in Amhara.
• ⚠️ The Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency due to escalating violence, indicating a lack of control over the situation.
• 🔍 The potential for further conflict exists, especially if Fano aligns with Eritrean forces, which could exacerbate regional instability.

Q & A

What was the initial public sentiment towards Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed when he came to power in 2019?

There was a widespread sense of optimism as he promised to rejuvenate Ethiopia's economy and nurture peace between the country's ethnic regions.

What significant award did Abiy Ahmed receive in 2019 and for what reason?

Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for negotiating a long-awaited peace agreement with Eritrea.

What has caused the optimism surrounding Abiy Ahmed's leadership to fade?

The optimism has faded due to a vicious two-year civil war in Tigray, which ended in November 2022, and ongoing insurgencies in Amhara.

How does Ethiopia's federal structure contribute to interethnic tensions?

Ethiopia's federal structure, which gives semi-autonomous power to different ethnic groups, has led to competition and resentment among larger groups like the Amhara and Oromo towards smaller ethnic groups.

What are the two primary reasons Amhara elites are dissatisfied with Ethiopia's federal system?

Amhara elites believe the system gives too much power to smaller ethnic groups and they resent the dominance of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in federal politics.

What role did the Amhara militias, known as Fano, play during the war against the TPLF?

Fano militias supported federal forces during the war with the TPLF, hoping to gain more political power and influence in the process.

What event in late 2022 caused widespread upset among the Amhara population?

Widespread upset occurred when Oromo priests, apparently with government support, broke away from the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, exacerbating tensions between the Oromo and Amhara.

What is the current status of the conflict in Gondar as discussed in the video?

The conflict in Gondar has escalated, with Fano claiming to have taken control of much of the city and launching assaults on strategic locations, despite disputed control.

What challenges does the Ethiopian government face in resolving the conflict with Fano?

The Ethiopian government faces challenges such as a lack of coherent leadership among Fano militias, ongoing insurgent violence, and the difficulty of negotiating a ceasefire.

What potential future risk could the Ethiopian federal government face regarding its relationship with Eritrea?

If Fano begins cooperating with Eritrea, which has historical ties to them, it could lead to an escalation of conflict, particularly as relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated.