ISRAEL-IRAN | An Inevitable War?

Summary

The video explores the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, analyzing whether it could lead to a broader war with Iran. The current crisis began with Israel's military actions against Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader. As tensions rise, fears grow that this long-standing proxy conflict between Israel and Iran may evolve into a direct confrontation. The video delves into the historical context of these conflicts, highlighting the complex relationship between Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel, and considers the potential for a full-scale Israel-Iran war.

Takeaways

• ⚔️ Israel launched a limited operation in Southern Lebanon on October 1, 2024, targeting Hezbollah amidst rising tensions.
• 🛡️ The conflict is tied to Iran's support for Hezbollah, with fears that the situation could escalate into a broader war between Israel and Iran.
• 📡 Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia militia, has been backed by Iran for decades and plays a key role in the proxy conflict with Israel.
• 🚀 Hezbollah's missile strikes and Israel's aggressive responses have set the stage for increased violence in the region.
• 💣 Israel recently escalated its attacks, including explosive attacks on Hezbollah fighters and the assassination of its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.
• 🌀 Despite tensions, Lebanon's military has largely stayed out of the conflict, reflecting the country's complex political dynamics.
• 📊 Hezbollah remains a strong and well-armed militia with a network of tunnels and thousands of troops, posing a significant challenge for Israel.
• 🇱🇧 Lebanon's history of civil war and internal divisions make the conflict with Hezbollah even more dangerous for the region.
• 🤖 As Hezbollah vows retaliation and Iran increases missile and drone attacks, the conflict risks drawing Israel and Iran into direct war.
• 🌍 The real confrontation is between Israel and Iran, with Hezbollah and Hamas acting as proxies, indicating a shift from proxy war to potential direct conflict.

Q & A

What prompted Israel's recent invasion of Southern Lebanon?

The invasion was prompted by escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, following several Israeli operations against the group and the assassination of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 28, 2024.

What is Hezbollah's role in the Israel-Iran conflict?

Hezbollah acts as a proxy for Iran, receiving arms, funding, and training from Tehran. It has engaged in numerous skirmishes with Israel, launching missile attacks and participating in direct confrontations.

How did Iran respond to the assassination of Hezbollah's leader?

Iran vowed revenge for Nasrallah's assassination and launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, intensifying fears of a wider conflict.

What is the historical significance of Lebanon in Middle Eastern conflicts?

Lebanon has been a central actor in Middle Eastern conflicts for over 80 years, including the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the Lebanese Civil War, and multiple confrontations with Israel. It has also been a base for groups like the PLO and Hezbollah.

Why is the current conflict seen as potentially escalating into a full-scale war between Israel and Iran?

The long-standing proxy war between Israel and Iran, mainly fought through Hezbollah, appears to be becoming more direct, with both sides intensifying their attacks on each other. This raises concerns that the proxy conflict could evolve into a full-scale confrontation.

How did Hezbollah gain strength during the Lebanese Civil War?

During the Lebanese Civil War, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, grew in strength by engaging in battles with other factions and attacking Israeli forces. After the civil war, it refused to disband, continuing its attacks on Israel and consolidating power in Lebanon.

What are the broader implications of the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

The conflict is not just a regional struggle but part of the larger confrontation between Israel and Iran. The outcome could determine the future of Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and potentially trigger a more widespread Israel-Iran war.

What is the likelihood of the Lebanese government joining the conflict?

While the Lebanese government has condemned Israel's invasion, it is unlikely to join the fight directly, as many in Lebanon oppose Hezbollah's dominance. However, continued strikes on Beirut could exacerbate tensions within Lebanese society.

How has Hezbollah positioned itself politically and militarily within Lebanon?

Hezbollah has gained significant political influence, providing services like education and healthcare, while also maintaining a strong military presence with an estimated 25,000 regular troops and tens of thousands of reservists. It continues to receive support from Iran.

What are Israel's long-term goals in its conflict with Hezbollah?

Israel aims to weaken or destroy Hezbollah's military capabilities. However, unless it occupies Southern Lebanon indefinitely, the risk of Hezbollah rebuilding and resuming its attacks remains high.

Outlines

00:00

🪖 Escalation in the Middle East

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated significantly on October 1, 2024, with Israel announcing a limited operation in Southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah. This followed weeks of rising tensions, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader by Israeli forces. There are concerns that the situation could lead to a wider, potentially devastating war involving Iran. The script's introduction discusses the nature of proxy wars, where countries avoid direct conflict but engage through third parties, and the risk of such conflicts escalating.

05:03

🚀 Hezbollah's Persistent Conflict with Israel

After the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah continued its attacks on Israeli forces, even after Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon in 2000. The situation culminated in the 2006 war following a Hezbollah raid that captured Israeli soldiers, leading to a month-long conflict. Despite a UN resolution for peace, Hezbollah remained intact and shifted focus to growing its political power in Lebanon, supported by Iran. It continued to build its military strength, with tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal of over 100,000 rockets.

10:07

⚔️ Current Crisis and its Origins

The latest crisis is tied to the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Despite heightened tensions, a full-scale war was initially avoided. However, throughout 2024, hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah intensified. Israel launched several operations against Hezbollah, including disabling their communications and assassinating their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. On October 1, 2024, Israel launched a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon, raising the stakes significantly.

Keywords

💡Proxy Conflict

A proxy conflict involves one or both sides in a war using third parties, such as insurgent groups, to fight on their behalf to avoid direct military confrontation. In the video, this concept is central, as Israel and Iran have used groups like Hezbollah and Hamas to carry out indirect attacks on each other. The speaker discusses how this proxy war between Israel and Iran is now at risk of escalating into a direct confrontation.

💡Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shia militia that has been heavily armed, trained, and financed by Iran. Throughout the video, Hezbollah is depicted as a powerful actor in the ongoing conflict with Israel, launching missile strikes and maintaining a strong presence in Southern Lebanon. Its historical and current role in the tensions between Israel and Iran is crucial to understanding the potential for a larger war.

💡Southern Lebanon

Southern Lebanon is a strategic region where Hezbollah has a significant presence and where Israel has conducted multiple military operations. The video discusses how Israel’s invasion of Southern Lebanon on October 1, 2024, aims to target Hezbollah. This area has been a focal point of Israeli military campaigns, highlighting its importance in the ongoing conflict.

💡Iran

Iran plays a central role in the video as the backer of Hezbollah and Hamas, and as the key opponent of Israel in the broader regional struggle. The video emphasizes that the real confrontation is between Iran and Israel, with Hezbollah and Hamas acting as Iranian proxies. As tensions rise, the possibility of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran becomes more likely.

💡Nasrallah

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah was the long-standing leader of Hezbollah, and his assassination by Israel on September 28, 2024, is described as a pivotal event in the escalation of the current conflict. His death is a major blow to Hezbollah, both militarily and psychologically, but it has also intensified Hezbollah's resolve and Iran's desire for revenge.

💡Israeli Invasion of Lebanon

Israel’s military operation into Southern Lebanon, launched on October 1, 2024, is a key moment in the current escalation. The invasion is aimed at striking Hezbollah, which has been launching missile attacks against Israel. The video frames this invasion as part of Israel’s broader strategy to weaken Hezbollah, but also raises the possibility that it could lead to a larger regional conflict involving Iran.

💡Hamas

Hamas is a Palestinian militant group that, like Hezbollah, is supported by Iran. The video explains how the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 contributed to the rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hamas is another key player in the broader proxy conflict between Israel and Iran, with its actions influencing the escalation of violence.

💡Missile Strikes

Missile strikes are a common tactic used by Hezbollah against Israel, and Israel has also responded with airstrikes. The video mentions Hezbollah's extensive missile arsenal, which includes over 100,000 rockets, and discusses how Israel has been targeted by these attacks. Missile strikes are a major component of the military confrontation between the two sides.

💡Theocratic Regime

The theocratic regime refers to Iran's government, which came into power after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The video highlights how this regime has been fiercely opposed to Israel’s existence and has supported groups like Hezbollah to challenge Israel. The rise of this regime has been a driving factor in the proxy conflicts between Israel and Iranian-backed groups.

💡Israel-Iran War

The potential for a direct war between Israel and Iran is a central theme in the video. While the two countries have long engaged in proxy warfare, the video argues that recent developments—such as the assassination of Nasrallah and missile attacks—suggest that this conflict may escalate into an open war. The possibility of such a war carries significant regional and global implications.

Highlights

Israel's limited operation in Southern Lebanon to strike Hezbollah targets escalates fears of a broader conflict.

Israel assassinated Hezbollah's long-standing leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, prompting concerns of a new major war in Lebanon.

Iran retaliates against Israel's actions, leading to fears of a wider and more dangerous conflict.

The current escalation raises questions about the potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Iran.

Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has built a large fighting force, including around 25,000 regular troops and over 100,000 rockets.

Israel's attack on Hezbollah fighters involved detonating thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies, causing many injuries and disrupting communication.

Lebanese troops withdrew from border areas before the Israeli attack, indicating hesitation to engage directly.

The potential societal fragmentation in Lebanon due to Israeli strikes on Beirut may lead to increased internal tensions.

Israel's military operations have expanded to Southern Lebanon, with heavy fighting reported across the region.

Hezbollah has built an extensive tunnel network across Southern Lebanon, complicating Israel's efforts to neutralize the group.

Israel's actions against Hezbollah are closely linked to Iran, indicating a proxy war between Israel and Iran.

Iran has increased its missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.

A potential shift from a proxy war to direct confrontation between Israel and Iran is now becoming increasingly possible.

Hezbollah's resistance to disbanding despite the end of the Lebanese civil war has led to continued conflict with Israel.

The real concern is not another Lebanese war but the start of a direct Israel-Iran war, with both nations escalating their confrontations.

Transcripts

Is the Middle East on the  verge of a devastating new war?

On the 1st of October 2024, Israel  announced that its forces had entered  

Southern Lebanon in what it called a limited  operation to strike Hezbollah targets.

Coming after weeks of escalating tensions  that saw Israel stage several high-profile  

operations against the group, even  killing its long-standing leader,  

there are fears that this marks the  start of another major war in Lebanon.

However, as Iran retaliates, there are  growing fears that the conflict may be  

about to become far wider and far more dangerous.

So, what lies behind the present  conflict, and could it finally  

spark a full-scale war between Israel and Iran?

Hello and welcome, if you're new to the  channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,  

and here I take an informed look at international  relations, conflict, security, and statehood.

We tend to think of wars as military  confrontations between two opposing sides,  

but this isn't always the case.

Sometimes the parties want to  avoid direct armed conflict,  

usually because they fear the devastating  consequences of a full-scale confrontation.

In such cases, they may instead  resort to using proxies.

One or both sides use a third party,  

such as another country or an  insurgent group, to attack the other.

However, while these proxy conflicts can continue  

indefinitely, they sometimes  escalate into direct wars.

This could be through miscalculation, for example,  

if a proxy carries out an attack that's  simply too serious to be ignored.

Alternatively, one of the sides may decide that  the time has come to face its opponent directly.

One of the best examples of a proxy conflict  that appears to be teetering on the edge of  

a full-scale war is the long-standing  confrontation between Israel and Iran.

For many decades, Iran has armed, financed, and  trained the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah.

As well as regular skirmishes along the border,  which even led to a major conflict in 2006,  

this has seen the group often fire  missiles directly into Israel.

But as tensions again escalate between  Israel and Hezbollah, could this be the  

moment that the proxy war ends and a direct  conflict between Israel and Iran begins?

Lying immediately to Israel's north, from the  start, Lebanon has been a central actor, both  

willingly and unwillingly, in the conflicts that  have beset the Middle East over the past 80 years.

For example, it was one of the five Arab states  that joined forces with the Arab Palestinians to  

unsuccessfully attack the new state of Israel  when it proclaimed independence in May 1948.

This failure would have a profound  consequence for the country.

As many Palestinians fled to Lebanon,  they upset the delicate balance between  

the three crucial Lebanese  ethnoreligious communities:  

the Christian Maronites, the Sunni  Muslims, and the Shia Muslims.

This situation became even more unstable  when tens of thousands more Palestinians  

arrived at the start of the 1970s  after nearby Jordan expelled the  

Palestinian Liberation Organization,  the leading Palestinian armed group.

With Palestinians now representing  up to 15% of the Lebanese population,  

they allied with other groups to end the  dominance of the Maronite Christians.

This came to a head in 1975, sparking what would  go on to become a bitter 15-year civil war.

As the Lebanese civil war raged,  

two key events occurred that would lay  the foundations for today's conflict.

The first was the overthrow of the Iranian  monarchy in January 1979, which led to the  

creation of a new theocratic regime that  was fiercely opposed to Israel's existence.

Secondly, as the civil war raged in  Lebanon, Palestinian forces in the  

country seized the opportunity to step  up their attacks on neighboring Israel.

All this would come together in June 1982,  

when Israeli forces launched a  full-scale invasion of Lebanon.

Seeing an opportunity to take on Israel,  

Iran now sent over a thousand members of  its elite Revolutionary Guards to Lebanon.

There, they played a central role  in arming and training a new militia  

formed from within the Lebanese Shia  community: Hezbollah, the Army of God.

In the years that followed, Hezbollah  gradually gained strength, not only taking  

on other factions in the Lebanese civil  war but also launching attacks on Israel.

Meanwhile, although the civil war eventually  came to an end in 1989 with a peace agreement  

that called on the militias to disband and  surrender their weapons, Hezbollah refused.

Instead, it continued to attack Israeli  troops, which were still occupying the south.

Even though Israel eventually withdrew from  Lebanon in 2000, the attacks continued as  

Hezbollah launched regular missile and  artillery strikes across the border.

All this eventually came to a head in July 2006.

Following a Hezbollah raid into Israel  that saw two Israeli soldiers kidnapped,  

Israel retaliated by sending  its forces back into Lebanon.

However, just over a month later, the  fighting came to an end when the UN  

Security Council passed a resolution calling  for an Israeli withdrawal in return for an  

enhanced UN peacekeeping mission in the south  of Lebanon and the disbandment of Hezbollah.

But while this didn't, in fact, happen,  

tensions nevertheless appeared to  ease in the years that followed.

While confrontations continued, and the  group remained fundamentally opposed  

to Israel, there were no further  eruptions of full-scale fighting.

Instead, Hezbollah turned  its attentions elsewhere.

In addition to becoming involved in the  Syrian civil war, where the Assad regime  

was being propped up by the Iranian government,  the group also consolidated its power in Lebanon.

Under its long-standing leader,  

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, it steadily  became a more powerful political actor.

As the central government collapsed, the  group began providing essential services  

in many areas, including education and healthcare.

All the while, and still backed by Iran, it  continued to build up its military strength.

Indeed, by 2023, it was estimated to have  around 25,000 regular troops and tens of  

thousands more reservists, many of whom had  by now gained battle experience over in Syria.

On top of this, it had a huge arsenal of  weapons, including over 100,000 rockets.

I hope you're finding this helpful.

If so, please do consider giving it a like,  

leaving a comment, or perhaps subscribing to  the channel if you haven't already done so.

It all really helps.

Thanks so much, and now back to the video.

So, what's led to the current crisis?

Ultimately, it's intrinsically linked to the  Hamas attack on Israel on the 7th of October 2023.

In the immediate aftermath of  the operation, many felt that  

Hezbollah would seize on the opportunity  to also launch a major attack on Israel.

But while Hezbollah certainly increased its  strikes on Israel in the weeks that followed,  

a full-scale conflict was averted.

A strong US Naval presence in  the region and clear warnings  

to Tehran not to escalate the situation  appeared to stop the slide towards war.

However, throughout 2024, there's  been a sense that Israel and Hezbollah  

have nevertheless been edging ever  closer to an all-out confrontation.

While Hezbollah continued to launch  sporadic missile strikes on northern Israel,  

forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to be  evacuated, Israel also stepped up its operations.

This all came to a head in  September when Israel began a  

series of actions designed to undermine  Hezbollah's operational effectiveness.

The first of these was the  simultaneous detonation of  

thousands of pagers that had been  covertly fitted with explosives,  

an attack that left many thousands of Hezbollah  fighters and activists gravely injured.

This was then followed up by another  round of explosions the next day,  

using walkie-talkies that had  also been fitted with explosives.

In addition to the physical  injuries these attacks caused,  

they also forced Hezbollah to  scale back its communications.

However, as significant as these steps were,  

the critical moment came on the 28th of  September when Israel assassinated Nasrallah.

Launching an attack against several apartment  blocks, Israeli aircraft used bunker-busting bombs  

to kill the Hezbollah leader, an operation that  also left several hundred others dead and wounded.

As Hezbollah vowed to replace its leader and  Iran promised revenge, Israel took the next step.

On the 1st of October, it announced that it had  

launched a long-anticipated  invasion of Southern Lebanon.

The question, of course, is what happens now?

First, while this is an extremely serious  situation, it's important to emphasise  

that this doesn't mark the start of a  formal war between Israel and Lebanon.

Indeed, it was telling that Lebanese troops  

withdrew from the border areas just  hours before the start of the attack.

While many Lebanese passionately dislike  Israel, they also intensely oppose Hezbollah,  

which has become steadily more powerful  in the country over the past decade.

In this sense, while the Lebanese government  has strongly condemned the invasion,  

many ordinary Lebanese, from across the  religious divides, will be hoping that  

Israel will be able to undermine Hezbollah,  even if they don't perhaps say so openly.

For all these reasons, it's unlikely  that Lebanese forces will join the fight.

Having said this, things could yet change.

Israel's strikes on Beirut, the Lebanese capital,  will make it increasingly difficult for Lebanon,  

or at least parts of Lebanese  society, to take a back seat.

As the war progresses, this could lead to  more significant societal fragmentation,  

which obviously carries many dangers in a country  with such a strong history of a brutal civil war.

But the second question is whether Israel can,  in fact, deal a decisive blow to Hezbollah.

On the one hand, Israel seems  to be in a very strong position.

With military operations in  Gaza now seemingly winding down,  

Israel may well have held off the attack until  it knew that it could weaken Hezbollah and  

then be able to commit enough forces  to a second front against the group,  

which is a far more challenging  opponent than Hamas over in Gaza.

Meanwhile, just a few days into the conflict,  

reports suggest heavy fighting now  occurring across Southern Lebanon.

Of course, it remains to be  seen precisely how this evolves,  

but many would argue that Israel is acting  while it's in the strongest possible position.

Its pager attacks on thousands of Hezbollah  fighters and the assassination of Nasrallah  

will have dealt a massive military, political,  and psychological blow to the organization.

However, balanced against this,  

there's little doubt that Hezbollah  remains a significant fighting force.

While it may be reeling under recent attacks,  it remains a large and well-armed militia.

It's also extremely well dug in.

As with Hamas in Gaza, it's established a network  

of tunnels throughout Southern Lebanon  that help it to stage its attacks.

More generally, and as many  observers have pointed out,  

Israel's history in Lebanon  has been far from promising.

Having invaded on several occasions,  

it's eventually pulled out only to have to go back  in once the security situation deteriorates again.

And this brings us to the real question.

Ultimately, it isn't the short-term results  of the Israeli invasion that really matter;  

it's what happens in the medium to long term.

Even if Israel succeeds in its primary goal  and destroys Hezbollah's immediate ability  

to attack, unless it's willing  to occupy the land indefinitely,  

the threat will almost certainly return.

As the past has shown, as  soon as the IDF pulls out,  

Hezbollah will begin the process of rebuilding.

This may not happen quickly, but  it will happen—unless, of course,  

Israel can defeat the group more widely.

But this goes far beyond Lebanon, and  this is where we get to the real point.

What we're seeing now with Hezbollah  in Lebanon is not the central issue.

It's just one part of it.

The real confrontation is between Israel and Iran.

For as long as the countries remain fundamentally  at odds, and Iran sponsors groups like Hamas and  

Hezbollah to act as proxies, then  the confrontation will continue.

Until now, the two countries have waged what is  

effectively a secret war,  but this is now changing.

The conflict between the two  is becoming ever more open.

Aside from the conflicts with Hamas  in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon,  

the confrontations between Israel and  Iran are becoming increasingly direct.

The growing number of intelligence and military  operations they're both staging against each other  

mark a steadily more dangerous march towards  a direct conflict between these two countries.

This was underscored by Israel's  willingness to assassinate the  

leader of Hamas, who was living in Tehran.

At the same time, Iran has stepped up its  missile and drone attacks against Israel,  

including launching a major attack  after Israel began its invasion of  

Lebanon, a strike that Israel now  promises will lead to retaliation.

For all these reasons, the real fear now  is not the start of a third Lebanese war.

It's the start of the first open Israel-Iran war.

A long-standing proxy conflict now appears poised  to become a devastating full-scale confrontation.

But of course, there's a long history  to the Iran-Israel relationship.

If you want to find out more about this, here's  another video that you might find interesting.